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GQBalla
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quote:

bought into JVA when it was 7.48 but sold at 12

oh well good chunk of change for a couple weeks not even of putting money somewhere

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Old Post 03-16-2012 03:20 PM
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Feruk
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quote:

Originally posted by in*10*se
^so assume they already have the 23% on the board, and they only need another 10%. I'll bet you your holdings that the more than 10% is held by institutions that are more than ready to vote yes. Crescent easily could crush any counter offer by Tundra or Fort Calgary.


They've got 23% between CPG interest and the board. Need another 43.67% to make it go through. Not sure where your 10% comes from? And yes, I'd totally encourage them crushing any competitor's bids with a higher bid. Either way, I doubt it'll happen.

Originally posted by davidI
CPG's definitely using their inflated share price to make acquisitions.

Anyone know of other shops they're likely after?


I don't "know", but I hear rumors and can make guesses. My best guess is Arcan Resources (ARN). They've got land in the Swan Hills play with Crescent Point offsetting. I own Arcan; great company. A more far fetched guess is Second Wave Petroleum (SCS). Same play, FAR crappier land position, looking at "strategic alternatives", but I think if they get bought out, it'll be someone else (Pengrowth maybe). I don't hold them right now and am not sure if I'll buy any. A takeover is priced in already IMO.

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Old Post 03-16-2012 03:44 PM
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in*10*se
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quote:

Originally posted by Feruk

They've got 23% between CPG interest and the board. Need another 43.67% to make it go through. Not sure where your 10% comes from? And yes, I'd totally encourage them crushing any competitor's bids with a higher bid. Either way, I doubt it'll happen.


I don't "know", but I hear rumors and can make guesses. My best guess is Arcan Resources (ARN). They've got land in the Swan Hills play with Crescent Point offsetting. I own Arcan; great company. A more far fetched guess is Second Wave Petroleum (SCS). Same play, FAR crappier land position, looking at "strategic alternatives", but I think if they get bought out, it'll be someone else (Pengrowth maybe). I don't hold them right now and am not sure if I'll buy any. A takeover is priced in already IMO.



damn. my math is terrible, i went for the 1/3 instead of the 2/3... hahahah fail. my bad.
none the less. pretty sure they'll take the offer.
no one wants to bid crescent up cause you'll be stirring up some pretty deep shit w/ such a large company.

anyways. someone wanna help me out on how to exercise that .2 warrant w/ rrx?

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Old Post 03-16-2012 05:14 PM
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Type_S1
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quote:

Originally posted by Feruk

They've got 23% between CPG interest and the board. Need another 43.67% to make it go through. Not sure where your 10% comes from? And yes, I'd totally encourage them crushing any competitor's bids with a higher bid. Either way, I doubt it'll happen.


I don't "know", but I hear rumors and can make guesses. My best guess is Arcan Resources (ARN). They've got land in the Swan Hills play with Crescent Point offsetting. I own Arcan; great company. A more far fetched guess is Second Wave Petroleum (SCS). Same play, FAR crappier land position, looking at "strategic alternatives", but I think if they get bought out, it'll be someone else (Pengrowth maybe). I don't hold them right now and am not sure if I'll buy any. A takeover is priced in already IMO.



Bought into second wave back at the start of january when takeover rumors were going crazy downtown...since then it has killed it and seems like an inflated stock. I still think a takeover is coming but I doubt at much of a premium.

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Old Post 03-16-2012 07:05 PM
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CMW403
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quote:

Originally posted by in*10*se


damn. my math is terrible, i went for the 1/3 instead of the 2/3... hahahah fail. my bad.
none the less. pretty sure they'll take the offer.
no one wants to bid crescent up cause you'll be stirring up some pretty deep shit w/ such a large company.

anyways. someone wanna help me out on how to exercise that .2 warrant w/ rrx?



Your math is pretty LOL.

Why on earth would you want to exercise your warrants today?

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Old Post 03-16-2012 07:39 PM
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in*10*se
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quote:


In accordance with the Arrangement, Wild Stream shareholders received, for each Wild Stream Share held, consideration consisting of:
(i) 0.17 of a common share of Crescent Point;
(B) 1 common share of Raging River ("Raging River Share");
(C) 0.2 of a Raging River warrant, each whole warrant entitling the holder to purchase one Raging River Share at an exercise price of $1.61 per share until 4:30 p.m. (Calgary time) on April 16, 2012.



I have a month to exercise.



As previously announced, on March 15, 2012 Raging River also completed a private placement of approximately $23 million of Raging River units ("Raging River Units") at an issuance price of $1.61 per Raging River Unit (the "Private Placement"), each Unit consisting of one Raging River Share and one Raging River common share purchase warrant ("Warrant"). Each Warrant entitles the holder thereof to acquire one Raging River Share at a price of $2.00 for a period of three years from the date of issuance.



no i don't have these warrants.

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Old Post 03-16-2012 08:46 PM
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davidI
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quote:

Originally posted by in*10*se


anyways. someone wanna help me out on how to exercise that .2 warrant w/ rrx?



You should have a position in RRX.WT & RRX.

Current market price of the warrants are $0.9, so with the $1.61 exercise price you're looking at $2.51 for a share of RRX in the event you exercise vs. the $2.54 it's trading at.

You can either just close your position on the warrants and lose that $0.03, or put an instruction in to your broker to exercise the warrants and collect the shares.

Made a tidy 11% on that trade in less than 2 months. Not bad. Not great. We'll see how RRX does over the next few years. It's going to be a long-term hold for me, though I have a feeling ththe stock price may decline a bit over the next few weeks, similar to how WSX first performed, prior to kicking its way up.

I'll try to do an analysis on CPG's charts in the next few days here to determine a solid exit point.

Just need CNRL to pick up its socks now!

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Old Post 03-17-2012 04:28 PM
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CMW403
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quote:

Originally posted by davidI




I'll try to do an analysis on CPG's charts in the next few days here to determine a solid exit point.

Just need CNRL to pick up its socks now!



That would be much appreciated as I plan to sell my CPG from both the WSX deal and the REL deal (which I heard is going to be accepted)

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Old Post 03-18-2012 10:14 PM
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davidI
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quote:

Originally posted by CMW403


That would be much appreciated as I plan to sell my CPG from both the WSX deal and the REL deal (which I heard is going to be accepted)



Posted it. I think it will be possible to sell around $47 but we'll see what happens. http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trad...p-cpg-20120319/

The market is sort of freaking me out lately. I don't know why...just seems like the US Markets have been running a little too hard. I'm not looking to sell yet, but am going to focus on value buys and keep my eye on things - possibly set some mental stops.

http://www.wavaholic.com/search/label/SPX

Biggest thing for me is to keep some money in the market. I've missed too many gains waiting on the sidelines in the past.

Last edited by davidI on 03-20-2012 at 05:38 AM

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Old Post 03-19-2012 09:11 PM
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in*10*se
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quote:

Hm anyone look at CHX? charger energy.

Another recapped jr. Its working its way towards 42% oil+ngl for 2012 exit. should be ~4000boe/d.
Reserves 2P are 39% oil +ngls.

Management team is all former VP's of provident trust.

Something i think would be worth a 52 week hold as they work towards more liquids weighting.

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Old Post 03-19-2012 09:27 PM
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93mr2gt
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quote:

bought 12k shares of MAY.To today @ 1.15

Anyone else looking at this stock?

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Old Post 03-21-2012 07:14 PM
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Feruk
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quote:

Originally posted by in*10*se
Hm anyone look at CHX? charger energy.

Another recapped jr. Its working its way towards 42% oil+ngl for 2012 exit. should be ~4000boe/d.
Reserves 2P are 39% oil +ngls.

Management team is all former VP's of provident trust.

Something i think would be worth a 52 week hold as they work towards more liquids weighting.


Any idea what their total cash flow was for 2011? They have a lot of debt... Beyond that, it looks really interesting. They've got the money in their credit facility to cover their entire capital program, have a good land base, and a decent play they can drill for cheap. My second issue is how much of their current 3,500boe/d is gas. As for reserves, any idea what the PDP or 1P oil/gas split is? Don't care about 2P with juniors.

They're trading at $40.000/flowing which tells me they are either (a) super gas weighted, (b) carrying a heavy debt/cf ratio, or (c) the market doesn't understand the combination yet and there may be a good opportunity.

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Old Post 03-22-2012 03:53 PM
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Feruk
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quote:

Originally posted by 93mr2gt
bought 12k shares of MAY.To today @ 1.15

Anyone else looking at this stock?


In my opinion, market cap's getting high and results are not stellar. By itself, 1.62g/T to 3.93g/T over wide intervals greater than 56m seems pretty good, but factor in that it's ~300m underground, and I start to worry about economics. Love the concentrations, love the size of intervals, but the depth scares me.

In the gold space, I'm seriously looking at SOV.V and not too seriously considering AZ.V. But what do I know? I own AVR who took a 10% hit due to a military coup in Mail today.

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Old Post 03-22-2012 04:00 PM
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Sugarphreak
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quote:

Getting absolutely killed on my Imperial Oil stock

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Originally posted by MGCM
A quick google search reveals plenty of larger dildos on the market

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Old Post 03-22-2012 05:07 PM
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Feruk
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quote:

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Getting absolutely killed on my Imperial Oil stock


Until you have a military coup break out in the country where your stock is mining, I think you're sitting alright.

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Old Post 03-22-2012 05:49 PM
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Manhattan
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quote:

Every oil stock is getting killed right now. It'll bounce back so it's good chance to load up some more. IMP is not down more than 10% this year anyway.

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Old Post 03-22-2012 07:07 PM
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dimi
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quote:

I'll jump into a CNQ/SU mix, see what happens.

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Old Post 03-22-2012 08:33 PM
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msommers
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quote:

Yeah my Bowood investment, thankfully not that much, is getting destroyed. Bought in at 0.155/share. Would be a fantastic time to put more in but I'm more skeptical than ever!

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Old Post 03-23-2012 03:55 AM
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davidI
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quote:

^ I still think they're seeking a disposition just to stay solvent.

CNQ and SU are both looking good on the charts. The Energy sector really hasn't been showing the returns of other sectors lately though. I'm going to need to start branching out with my investments a bit more soon. Could be some nice opportunities on this pullback though.

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Old Post 03-23-2012 08:22 AM
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dimi
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quote:

Maybe I jumped too soon, but I still think 33.7X/32.2X for CNQ/SU is pretty decent. We'll wait and see.

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Old Post 03-23-2012 03:26 PM
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