Tesla Motors

[rage2]

Originally posted by supe
Read this headline:
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/13/auto...udi/index.html

In their first attempt at a mass production car they are already beating out some big names, so if you say boutique, I guess it depends on your definition.

You're also giving the big auto companies too much credit. These companies are very slow moving machines. Many are unionized and all have to work through a dealer network that all steal from the bottom line. Further these car companies have spent decades of R&D and built factories to build ICE vehicles which they won't want to throw away. Their own dealer networks will resist EV's because of their low maintenance costs, and we all know how dealerships make money.

Tesla is more nimble with the direct to consumer strategy because there is no need for a middle man. They are dumping every dollar back into scaling up their operation and reducing costs because that is their long term strategy from the start. Elon is also leveraging real life space technology from SpaceX into Tesla which is a huge advantage both for cost savings and for being technologically . Once Tesla releases an SUV then their lower price Gen3 they will have a very compelling vehicle for each market segment.

Again, mass producing 1 or 2 models is a hell of a lot different than mass producing 20 models in 10 manufacturering plants worldwide. I don't think you're understanding what I'm talking about when it comes to scaling up. You have to look at the big picture. That headline is exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to marketing. Tesla beat 3 models that are way more expensive. Hell, just go compare against the 5 series, E class, and the A6 and see what happens. If you look at the big picture and compare all luxury vehicles, Tesla is a rounding error.

You're right about the big manufactures, they have a lot of issues, but that again has nothing to do with scale.

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by rage2

Again, mass producing 1 or 2 models is a hell of a lot different than mass producing 20 models in 10 manufacturering plants worldwide.

Why do they need 20 models? I don't think they've ever intended to be the Swiss Army knife of car manufacturers. They are going to make 4-5 great cars (small commuter, mid-sized commuter, mid-sized SUV, luxury car, truck), and that'll be enough.

I'm on the other side of the fence on the scaling issue... Tesla will scale up a lot more efficiently than GM.

[rage2]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Why do they need 20 models? I don't think they've ever intended to be the Swiss Army knife of car manufacturers.

The valuation says otherwise. We ARE talking about Tesla's valuation aren't we?

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by supe


Read this headline:
http://money.cnn.com/2013/05/13/auto...udi/index.html

I hate that article. They are comparing cars in different classes, claiming they beat the big 3 of luxury then throw in a qualifier later. This is almost a plant by Tesla.


If you compare it to 5/E/A6, a line up that's more in line of Tesla's prices (before and after tax credits) all these are moving at 2000-6000 units per month, not 5000 per quarter.

The only cars in this class that Tesla can really claim to beat are Lincoln MKS, Acura RLX and Infiniti M class.

[Rat Fink]

.

[rage2]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
It also looks like the technicians may be required to haul an enclosed car trailer (possibly pickup and drop off customer vehicles??). That would be a great perk considering the costs.

That's for running out of power.

Actually, I'm pretty sure that's for delivery, as they deliver to your door.

[rage2]

I was putting myself to sleep last night by doing some research on Tesla stock, stumbled upon this. A funny watch, guy responding to comments on his Tesla stock assessment.



I found this vid in the official Tesla forums, and found there's actually quite a few teething problems with the cars. At least, based on how many they sold and how many posts there are.

http://www.teslamotors.com/forums/di.../tesla-model-s

And the original video analysis of the stock:

[supe]

Regarding the stock price, most of his explanation refers to what Tesla has done in the past. I'm sure if you drew a slope line of Tesla's revenues and extrapolated into the future you get a pretty good idea of why this stock is forward looking. Whether its massive stock price is worthy is yet to be seen.

If we're talking about the product of Tesla I'm sure the teething issues such as lack of rear seat cupholders can be forgiven considering Tesla's latest best safety rating ever. The car is so strong it broke the testing equipment!

Anyway, I also found this video on the Tesla forums.

[rage2]

Originally posted by supe
Regarding the stock price, most of his explanation refers to what Tesla has done in the past. I'm sure if you drew a slope line of Tesla's revenues and extrapolated into the future you get a pretty good idea of why this stock is forward looking. Whether its massive stock price is worthy is yet to be seen.

There are a lot smarter people than me that has done the homework. This one has a lot of revenue breakdown, scalability, and revenue of ZEV credits which are slowly declining:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspe...-tesla-motors/

If you read some of the stock valuation threads in the Tesla forums, you can clearly see that the price is mostly driven by emotions. As for ignoring the past, you can't do that, when they've only had 1 profitable quarter.

Originally posted by supe
If we're talking about the product of Tesla I'm sure the teething issues such as lack of rear seat cupholders can be forgiven considering Tesla's latest best safety rating ever. The car is so strong it broke the testing equipment!

Nah, I'll have to dig up the threads when I have time. Charger not disconnecting (stranded), doors not opening (have to jump in from another door), cars not charging. There's also issues with repairs, parts availability and warranty work. Since nobody can work on the cars except Tesla (they won't allow it), they're flying out Rangers to fix any problems. Goes back to my scalability concerns.

Again, I'm purely looking at this from a stock valuation standpoint. I think Tesla is doing a great thing today. Good company, good car. Just overvalued.

[milesmcewing]

I just came back from three days of testing the new Tesla Model 'S'

Great power, disliked everything else.

My disclaimer is that I work for Porsche so my opinions will be biased.....

We took it out for a burn through the mountains in Park City Utah - the car started with a full charge.

I heard a new term "Range Anxiety" - totally get that, the car started with 265 miles of range - two big hills and twenty minutes later and it showed 45 miles left, nearest charge station? 500 miles! for the next hour we were very conservative trying to protect the range, all was good as we gained enough back to get to the hotel. One of the other cars had the client turn of the traction control and stomp on it - the system crashed and left the car stranded, Tesla was able to reboot the car and allow it to continue.

Their marketing material is a bit misleading - information was quoted for costing and range based on the lower end models and performance quoted on the upper end so the two did not jive.

The one I was driving was 116K USD - I liked the 17 inch screen except in the dark where it was very obtrusive, the second part of that was the fact that the radio and nav system is 3g, so when you lose the signal, you lose it all.

I could not fit in the back seat and the roof liner was low with a sharp edge on the back of your head, seats were also uncomfortable with the front ones digging into my ribs on both sides.

Having the battery pack on the floor meant the seat was very high, so in the front I had a very hard time seeing and the A-pillar completely blocked my ability to turn left.

The car had 300 miles on the odo when I picked it up and the seat trim had fallen off, the roof liner let go on the passenger side and the rubber window seals were distorted in several places.

What did I like?
the styling is good
the trunk space is great
The power is great - in a drag race with a Panamera Turbo using launch control there was not an inch in it until 90 miles an hour

The worst part:
53 hour recharge time! they quote 9, but that is with their proprietary charger and specific 240 volt system modified in your house - the 'standard' chargers used in charge points and public stations do NOT fit the plug.
If your going to Grandmas house, you better like the meatloaf, you're gonna' be there a while!

Overall a great attempt at solving the problem - lots of innovation and smart thinking.

I have to believe however that the other manufacturers will continue to learn at great pace and their experience will push Telsa down.

The Chevy Volt is already a better product since it can charge itself and is very cost effective. Of course my biased opinion from Porsche is that our new system is the best currently available (we invented hybrids over a 100 years ago). The new Panamera will happily go over 80 miles an hour on full electric and you can charge while driving.

With our non-proprietary plugins you can recharge in 2.5 hours.

The next few years will be very interesting.

Back on topic, I think it is a good company with good innovators, just heavily overvalued.
Just my two cents...

[msommers]

Thanks for the review, Miles, that was very informative.

[themack89]

I'll probably be buying puts before every earnings release... One decent miss and it could sewer hard.

Always need a catalyst for these types of things.

[supe]

Tesla outsells Buick, FIAT, Land Rover, Lincoln and Mitsubishi in California:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/08/21/...fornia-market/

[you&me]

Originally posted by supe
Tesla outsells Buick, FIAT, Land Rover, Lincoln and Mitsubishi in California:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/08/21/...fornia-market/

I followed link after link, but couldn't find anything. I'd love to see a source for their numbers.

There is absolutely zero chance that the Model S out sold Land Rover in California. And I have a hard time believing it's the 3rd best selling "luxury" car behind the E-Class and 5-Series (A6 anyone?)... Fucking hippies...

Edit - Well f-me, here's the numbers - http://www.cncda.org/secure/GetFile.aspx?ID=2583

[supe]

Nice find, according to your link Tesla outsold Porsche as well!

[themack89]

Yeah. Tesla is totally worth 1/3rd the value of Ford, another automaker who profited $1.4bil in Q2 compared to Tesla's $70million, especially with 1 (2?) profitable quarter to project future earnings.

Let me see if I got the math right...
Tesla Earnings / Ford Earnings... 5%
Tesla Valuation / Ford Valuation... 30%

Yeah this makes sense to me now.

I've changed my mind. Considering that Tesla outsold Porsche in California (which was roughly 50% of their entire sales across the United States), and its their first profitable quarter ever, I think the company is a steal of a deal at $20bil. Especially factoring in that Ford is only worth 3x as much as Tesla and they earn 20x more.

Supe, are you with me? Let's scrounge up every dollar we can and buy Tesla shares.

[supe]

Show me once that I told you that Tesla is a buy, I did not.

What I have been saying is Tesla as well as EV's is going to be a big part of the future. You can't compare a growth company with HUGE potential to a blue chip company thats been around for 100 years.

Everyone who has shorted Tesla based on fundamentals has lost their shirt, thats because the market as we all know is forward looking. If Tesla didn't have a substantial product that can make (a lot of) money then sure bet against it, but the problem is Tesla has the potential to be a major disrupter and is making headlines all the time. They just completed their first shipments to Europe and Asia meaning they are now an international automaker.

Lets just assume that Tesla can do to the world what they did in California, then that right there justifies their current valuation because Tesla is valued at about what Porsche is, but why stop there, Tesla has even more potential than that.

Truly, I don't know if I could put money into Tesla at this valuation, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet against them.

Are you with me?

[themack89]

Originally posted by supe
Truly, I don't know if I could put money into Tesla at this valuation, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet against them.

Are you with me?

I'm with you.

I never said Tesla was going to fail, or their product sucks (I actually am glad people like Musk exist to bring revolution). In fact, in my original post I mentioned I think their product is great and will change the world.

I am simply just confused as to why the market has priced in, when comparing apples to apples, 6x more future earnings than other automakers.

In any case, I see potential fragility in their stock if they botch earnings relative to estimates. This is what I hope to take advantage of.

It is a "trade," not a long term investment.

Are we with each other now?

Originally posted by supe
Everyone who has shorted Tesla based on fundamentals has lost their shirt, thats because there has been no appropriate catalyst to shock the stock

Just throwing that in there for my opinion. It needs a headline thats bad. I think those who have "lost their shirts" shorting Tesla has failed to learn from previous examples, such as Netflix. Hype and exuberance combine to make one of the most powerful forces in the market. Again, my opinion.

[themack89]

Originally posted by themack89
I'll probably be buying puts before every earnings release... One decent miss and it could sewer hard.

Always need a catalyst for these types of things.

[Sugarphreak]

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