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  1. #61
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    This stuff is ridiculous.

    It is all well and good to come up with bold predictions and to only be right a tenth of the time.

    Dow 1000 - Are you serious? Do people actually invest their money with that windbag. He points out resistance dating back to 1966. Yes that makes sense, because it is not like we have had inflation, global growth, and the fact that the markets are exponential not linear. That is such an asinine argument to back up your pathetic claim. Are things better or worse right now than they were 3 months ago?

    Don't get me started on Roubini. He started a world tour at the beginning of March calling for the end of the world. Good prediction thus far. Not to say it might not come true, but this guy has been saying the same story for 5+ years. How much money would he have made using his theory over 5 years up until now. Absolutely useless.

    Sprott, well I guess he has a good track record. But shorting everything and buying gold is not advice I take from Hedge fund managers who make their money off of the little investors obeying their word in masses. I am sure he is just the same as every other "analyst" and telling us the opposite of what to do.

    I love how a lot of these people are calling for the end of the world. The 80s was worse and I am sure that in 5 years time we will have an even worse recession. Think about this, 6 months from now, and maybe even less, we might be coming out of this. Then imagine how bad this recession was. We all survived, some went without work, but in the end we made it.

    So until we have +10.8% unemployment with 20% inflation, I am not going to call for an end of the financial system as we know it.

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    ^^^^^
    Agreed.
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    Originally posted by KleanCord
    This stuff is ridiculous.

    It is all well and good to come up with bold predictions and to only be right a tenth of the time.

    Dow 1000 - Are you serious? Do people actually invest their money with that windbag. He points out resistance dating back to 1966. Yes that makes sense, because it is not like we have had inflation, global growth, and the fact that the markets are exponential not linear. That is such an asinine argument to back up your pathetic claim. Are things better or worse right now than they were 3 months ago?

    Don't get me started on Roubini. He started a world tour at the beginning of March calling for the end of the world. Good prediction thus far. Not to say it might not come true, but this guy has been saying the same story for 5+ years. How much money would he have made using his theory over 5 years up until now. Absolutely useless.

    Sprott, well I guess he has a good track record. But shorting everything and buying gold is not advice I take from Hedge fund managers who make their money off of the little investors obeying their word in masses. I am sure he is just the same as every other "analyst" and telling us the opposite of what to do.

    I love how a lot of these people are calling for the end of the world. The 80s was worse and I am sure that in 5 years time we will have an even worse recession. Think about this, 6 months from now, and maybe even less, we might be coming out of this. Then imagine how bad this recession was. We all survived, some went without work, but in the end we made it.

    So until we have +10.8% unemployment with 20% inflation, I am not going to call for an end of the financial system as we know it.
    This 100%.

    I am tired of the chicken little analysts just as much as I hate the overly bullish tools like Jim Cramer.

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    A story that was passed down from Ben Graham illustrates the lemminglike behavior of the crowd:

    "Let me tell you the story of the oil prospector who met St. Peter at the Pearly Gates. When told his occupation, St. Peter said, "Oh, I'm really sorry. You seem to meet all the tests to get into heaven. But we've got a terrible problem. See that pen over there? That's where we keep the oil prospectors waiting to get into heaven. And it's filled—we haven't got room for even one more." The oil prospector thought for a minute and said, "Would you mind if I just said four words to those folks?" "I can't see any harm in that," said St. Pete. So the old-timer cupped his hands and yelled out, "Oil discovered in hell!" Immediately, the oil prospectors wrenched the lock off the door of the pen and out they flew, flapping their wings as hard as they could for the lower regions. "You know, that's a pretty good trick," St. Pete said. "Move in. The place is yours. You've got plenty of room." The old fellow scratched his head and said, "No. If you don't mind, I think I'll go along with the rest of 'em. There may be some truth to that rumor after all."

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    http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists...ot-Gold-Report

    good read latest on gold/silver

    some interesting development

    suggest major short contracts has been rapidly reducing
    suggest silver currently at its record short position, the last time at such level was in december 08 and silver had rallied 50% since.
    suggest the GLD fund inventory stayed flat despite lower prices (no sell off)

    all positive news here folks
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    "Yesterday the Open Interest in the April COMEX gold contract was 362, it is now 2245 contracts. The addition of 1883 contracts so late in the current contract month can only mean the buyer intends to stand for delivery. There are already 11,208 cumulative delivery notices issued this month but almost no deliveries have been made…I know that from observing that there has been almost no physical metal leaving the COMEX warehouse on the gold side. If these new contracts stand for delivery the total to be delivered will be 1.3 Mozs; the dealer inventory stands at 2.68 Mozs. In other words deliveries could reduce available dealer inventory by 50% in a single month. There is always a possibility that these delivery notices get re-tendered (settled in cash) but so far that hasn’t happened. There is certainly the potential for a short squeeze brewing in gold which coupled with the continuing drawdown in physical silver inventories I have been reporting looks like things will get exciting very soon. "
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    Ok

    I've done this comparison a while back but lets look at it again with upated numbers.

    can you say the similarities between Jan-May 1979 gold price and the Jan-May so far in 2009 is so close to each other its not even funny?

    look at the trend, the peak and the dips.
    Now if gold did play out exactly like it did in 1979 then this is the dream ideal scenario knowing in 1979 after retesting the previous peak and dropped out of a up trend only to consolidate for 2 month sideways amid making new lows that puts us mid feb high to mid april low 2 months so we shall see something soon if it is to follow the dream scenario, more logical scenario is to have gold test 840-850 consolidate alittle further out into mid june to complete a small reverse head and shoulder within a large one (the right shoulder)
    then there is the worst case scenario where gold could test 700 again. Will gold be an April breakout, June breakout or Oct breakout? we'll know soon enough however personally I would say we are closer to a breakout rather than further decline simply because the action around the comex warehouse, backwardation, martin armgstrong's turn date, US equity at over bought territory, GATA's big conference this week (to expose gold maniuplation), gld ETF inventory holding flat not dropping due to lower POG. anything could spark a fire. So lets sit back and enjoy.

    Last edited by SilverRex; 04-16-2009 at 06:59 AM.
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  9. #69
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    " Something wicked this way comes! So, be afraid. Be very afraid. (Unless you're a gold bug).

    The recent rally in American and Canadian equity markets is soon to give way to a gut-wrenching collapse that will push equities to shocking new lows, with gold prices reacting by rallying to new highs. After having correctly anticipated the timing and extent of the March 9th to April 3rd market rally, this is the latest dire warning from Heiko Seibel, a leading German stock market strategist. The Director of Research for Munich-based CM-Equity AG now believes that the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index will dramatically drop to an ultimate low of around 450 points in late June or in July. The odds favour him being proven right - that is if his talent for correctly anticipating market moves continues.

    "Within a few weeks, we will see the stock lows of our lifetimes," he nonchalantly declares.
    Indeed, he was right on the money when he told BNW Business Newswire on March 2nd that the S&P 500 Index was about to reverse a pronounced downward trend. He suggested at the time that it would rally to a high of not much more than 850 points during April before it begins an orderly retreat that soon turns into a panic-stricken rout. The S&P 500 closed at 856.56 on April 9th - the culmination of a very impressive five-week gain of 26% over its March 09th low. However, this rebound cannot gloss over the fact that the bellwether index's had lost 58% of its value by the time it ended its slide in early March. And now the S&P 500 is likely destined to trade in an uninspiring sideways pattern for the balance of the month, Seibel suggests.

    Seibel believes that a growing sense of economic optimism shared by many U.S. investors and the Obama Administration, alike, is completely misplaced. He suggests that the rally during March and early April (with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 8,018 points on April 3rd after enjoying the best four-week run since 1933) is merely a false dawn. Soon enough investors will be seriously rattled yet again - this time by a devastating after-shock to October's global financial earthquake. One that will see the S&P 500 Index nose-dive up to 40% before it hits rock bottom at around the 450 points level. This bleak scenario contrasts starkly to the S&P's heady high of over 1,550 points in October of 2007.
    A proponent of quantitative analysis, Seibel says this pending nightmarish sell-off will cause plenty of already shell-shocked investors to relinquish their remaining equity holdings. However, investors in gold bullion and gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) will likely be spared the widespread misery, Seibel believes.

    "When there is a total loss in confidence in the stock market, then gold will rally. Gold bullion is historically an inverse proxy to the stock market. So, it's only logical that this will happen," he says. "We should see a culmination of massive price weakness in stocks within weeks, which will cause gold to reverse its current trend to establish new highs beyond $1,000 early in the third quarter of this year - maybe even testing the $1,200 mark," he adds.


    Interestingly, gold equities will not be immune to the market meltdown because investors will engage in "panic selling," to preserve whatever capital they have left, he predicts. Meanwhile, the catalyst to the stock market's final capitulation during the coming months will be a combination of the collapse of more landmark U.S. companies, a renewed banking crisis, and other forms of "major economic upheaval," Seibel explains.


    However, it is always darkest before dawn. And Seibel reasons that a gradual rebound in equities will finally assert itself during the last quarter of 2009 in anticipation of a spring economic revitalization. One that is already being germinated by massive government-backed infusions of money into the U.S. economy. "History shows that economic recoveries typically get underway about six to nine months after the markets hit their ultimate lows. So a spring economic recovery appears very probable," he says. "And gold stocks will lead the way during the market recovery as they're already ridiculously cheap and will get cheaper. But as gold prices begin to push higher, then gold producing companies will become attractive because they will offer investors leveraged exposure to these rising prices," he adds."


    So, there you have it. One more chance to fulfill the $1200 dream. Perhaps. And, also, ample time to think what to do with your stash/stack/monster boxes when/if those values knock on your doorstep. That's the part that not too many are willing to think about. Same as the part where Mr. Seibel sees that stocks will recover, that mining shares will rise, and that such a short-term spike in gold may be the last one for a long time to come. If it has not done so already.

    Happy Financial Planning. Or, card reading.
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  10. #70
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    Silver - wow, five posts in a row. This thread is a lot quieter than the short term thread.

    Anyway, nothing much to add, just thougth I'd break your streak.
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    I purchased Bank of America at 6.84, looks like a decent one to hold for now.

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    Everyone was complaining about the other thread being too high risk, too speculative and they wanted a long term thread so I got a mod to create one but no one's posting in it.
    Originally posted by rage2
    Shit, there's only 49 users here, I doubt we'll even break 100
    I am user #49

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    Max, it's hardly surprising that the long term thread is a little less busy then the day trading one. Firstly, the deomgraphic of this site is mostly younger people who are attracted to the risks of day-trading. Secondly, with longer term investments, things don't change on an hour by hour basis, so there is no need to post continual updates. I'm watching this thread closely though.

    Originally posted by eur0
    I purchased Bank of America at 6.84, looks like a decent one to hold for now.
    I'm not comfortable with US banks currently. I'd be much happier owning RY or TD. Both have about 5% dividend returns at current prices, and are stable and well managed.
    Quote Originally Posted by killramos View Post
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    I know I'm just joking anyway. This thread is turning into SR's precious metals blog
    Originally posted by rage2
    Shit, there's only 49 users here, I doubt we'll even break 100
    I am user #49

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    Some of the longer-term investors aren't posting as much as I was hoping they would - myself included.

    I'm working through an analysis of the all the major Canadian based Oil Co's right now - so I'll post that up when I'm finished. I'm looking at jumping into two or three of them for LT investments.......

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    just got this off another site to save my self making my own and this just confirms the bullish out look on silver.

    we know silver is forming a multi month cup and handle pattern with the break above 14.60 that would target around 20-21 area. now get this looking at the following silver on the multi year chart is forming a even bigger cup and handle that once it breaks out (above 21) it is projected to hit around 40. phuck!!!

    ok sure we all are dreamers and most likely halve of us refuse to believe gold has any room left to go, but isnt this the recipe that market goes against the norm? the average joe isnt in on gold yet, and when gold does explode above 1000, people will miss the perfect entry 700-900 area. still how difficult is it to invest 10% of how ever much you can into the metal market? just for kicks? just for insurance? gold from 250 to 890 now is what like 3.5x? a secular bull market doesnt put in 3-4x, more like 10x

    jim sinclair's 1650 target is very conservative and I will use that as my take profit for now while many are calling 2000-5000 I will probablly sell most of my holding near 2000, but things could change.

    if silver ration is back to at least 50 to 1, then 40 dollar silver = 2000 gold. but I think chances are by the time gold hits about 1300-1600 silver will have goten to 40 simple because the ratio is narrowing and it could suddenly drop to 35 to 1 like it does in the past. 15 to 1 like it should is kind of a strech, but any hood. the next 12-24 months. hold your gold and silver then will we see what happens from there.

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    Not sure if anyone of have followed goldrunner's work, but he has explained quite well of how we are today compare to the 29 or 70s

    http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/goldrunnerndx.html

    worth reading if you never came across his work.

    in summary

    he expects DOW to possibly put in a lower low somewhere between 5800-6000 (which he say is the low of the 70s). And says we are indeed closely ressemble the 70s inflation. the 2002-2007 rise in DOW is simply a smoke screen caused by inflation and a weak US dollar. While many think they have made money between that time, the price measured in DOW value is actually weakend.

    like the 70s. when DOW and gold hit 1 to 1 ratio in the 800s, DOW took over to new heights, and gold peaked. similarly, he expects DOW to get back to near its peak before gold will peak, because that is the only way for the US to balance their budget and gold needs to be 5 digits.

    current he projects gold low at 868 (we double bottom at 865) and potentially would make a new high into June.



    "We are now in a window where we might see a final low in the Dow based on the cycle since one must factor out the Dollar Inflation to compare to the 1929 Crash chart. We expect to see the Dow either fall to one final low over the next 3 to 6 months, or to at least test the low one more time. If the Dow follows the 1970s chart pattern, we'll shortly see a slightly lower low as the final Dow bottom.

    This seems like a good place to stop. Don't forget that the above exercise was simply developed as a framework under which to consider the question of "inflation or deflation", going forward. All of the above, in addition to the cycle itself, was what we based our analysis upon when a long-time, ago, we suggested the Dow Deflation Scare fall into at least a momentum bottom into the 4th quarter of 2008, along with a bottom in $Gold for that part of the long-term cycle"
    Last edited by SilverRex; 04-21-2009 at 01:45 PM.
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    take note
    few months ago I dont see much backwardation on a day to day basis for gold but saw some in silver between two contract month.

    now

    gold is becoming what silver was few months ago with two contract month showing signs of backwardation and silver even worse now, 4 countract month. This is saying people want their silver/gold now and willing to pay higher price then future months

    typically this indicate they need higher prices in order to relieve the market as many are not selling at current price level.

    with gold comex delivery notice of 50% of comex warehouse stock inventory at the risk of being withdrawn by months end.

    this few weeks could be very well be the most important time frame for gold going either direction.
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    a quick update on gold.As potentially a long term buy signal could be right around the corner.

    looking at the chart, STO is about to break free from this 2 month down trend and you can recall there is some similarities from a momentum change perspective when gold bottom near 700 many months ago.

    while everyone (including India and myself) are waiting for the ultimate spot price at 843, there is probability that it could never go there. And if you want gold to shoot the the moon, you will not want it to go there either because this would create more impulse and emotion as the theme (I dont want to miss the boat) will set in, if everyone has it there way, then gold will go up but behave orderly, where is the real gain in that? haha we want excitment dont we?

    remember not long ago when I was telling everyone we have a two stage support when gold first hit 890 I said based on support and trendline the good entry would be at 800 follow by 750-770, and all gold did was hit 803 I Think and took off.

    then when gold went to 930, the insane resistance that had stop gold dead in its track from advacning during the oct panic in 08. I and many were expecting a pull back to get long, then I suggested to wait for 875 and 850 to go long long long.

    well it only got to 874 when it first touched 915, but when it did touch 930, the pull back only lead to 890 and took off to 1006.

    As you can see how the pattern is emerging, it does appear gold does not want to let anyone jump on the perfect lower price. but it does allow it to fall to the next closest one.

    So we are at that same juncture. gold has put in a double bottom at 865, while 843 is juicy in its own right. for all we know this is a secular bull market trend that it will do what it can to throw everyone off its back before moving. It will shake out weak hands and its no joking matter.

    sure missed at 865? Wait for confirmation. first tease is to capture 902 again and above, anything above this should confirm 865 has indeed bottomed and weekly close above 920 and from a technical perspective will be the beginning of a new leg higher.

    Many will be calling the rise from 250 to 1033 a Major wave One in a 5 wave Elliot pattern. We had our Major wave Two correction to 681. And now Wave 3 is fast approaching. It will be sharp and will be the steepiest rise yet.

    Sure for the conservative mind. IT would be even safer to wait until gold breaks free above 1033 because then 1000 will be come a very large support and floor to build upon, similar in the 70s when DOW knocked on 1000 a few times, came down to 600. and when it finally broke 1000, it just went up year after year to 14000 of today.

    Now Remember, in the 70s when gold was around 200, DOW was in the 800, obviously DOW only fell to around 600 before finally making a bove beyone 1000 and higher but it was during this time when DOW was moving side ways at around 800 that gold caught up and thus put in a 1 to 1 ratio. If we firmly believe today's event is a 70s inflationary depression, then DOW will try to test the low and worse case make a slightly lower low before resuming a inflationary rise back to around 8k-10k, and it would be during this span that gold will catch up. So if you want today's event to play out like the 70s. DOW is coming down 2000 as some believe to match gold's rise, but rather gold still has room to grow to catch DOW's rise. Then once gold and DOW meets 1 to 1. You will most likely see the biggest gold dumping ever like the early 80s as equity will be very very attractive at that time.

    Who knows, I think down the road the next crisis will be hyper inflation that will be build upon the weakness of the US dollar. Look at 2002-2007, perfect example of what is headed our way. As the US dollar dropped, equities moved higher, not because of real growth or value. It was simply moving higher because of a weaker dollar as every asset was moving higher against it.

    You may feel you made money, during those 5 years but really your puchasing power becoming less and less.

    Anyhood
    The worse case for gold is we will eventually see prices in the 1500-2000 area. But up side parabolic could reach as high as 5k-10k+

    As Jim Sinclair predicted gold to top 900 in the 70s based on the US to balance their books. Today's number puts gold somewhere between10k-17k I believe. Is it going to be that crazy?

    NO one knows, but I'm not going to wait for another 30 years to find out I was wrong.

    Good trading and good luck. Boy do I feel good after last nights Flames game

    Last edited by SilverRex; 04-23-2009 at 07:05 AM.
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