Bunch of shit gone down since our last exchange on this.
HCG is pretty much done. I'm pretty sure they are almost, or entirely, out of writing mortgages at this point. They are selling off assets - and it looks a lot like a controlled demolition. Once the "good" assets are sold, they will let the thing go into bankruptcy, and the shit-eaters will pick over the corpse getting pennies on their dollars.
At this point HCG is an afterthought, though. The big Canadian banks are under the spotlight as of today.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rs-debt-burden
Toronto is seeing 1200 new listings every 24 hours right now. And the rate of additions is increasing. Our previous discussions about an "imminent" crash might be corrected to: it's here forks. Hang onto your butts.Six Canadian Banks Cut by Moody's on Consumers' Debt Burden
One thing that has been raised a couple of times in this thread that is worth correcting - default rates on a mortgage book would go up as a result of declining asset prices. But they would not be the cause of the crash. Just because a mortgage book is not seeing larger default rates, does not mean anything. To see significant default rates requires the actual market to deflect down. In a rising market people who are at risk for default can liquidate their house easily, and everyone is made whole. In a declining market, it is much more difficult to liquidate the asset to avoid a default. In other words, default rates would be a lagging indicator not a leading indicator.