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themack89
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Tesla Motors quote:

I'm wondering here if anyone has been following Tesla's stock?



What I see is $18 billion of market cap after they sold 5,000 cars for the quarter. Even at $70,000 a car, that is 51x quarterly revenues and/or trading at >665 times earnings (I don't know how to calculate when its negative, but it was -0.23).

That is a fuck ton of future value the market is pricing in. For perspective, Ford is valued at about $67bil, meaning Tesla is valued at 27% times that of Ford. Yes, Tesla is expanding into Asia and they figure thats where most of their sales will come from. Ford sold ~850,000 units last quarter in North America alone.

I am honestly in awe. Don't get me wrong, I think Elon Musk is a hero and he will continue to revolutionize the world more than he already has--I also think their product is great. But this is insane I think.

Here's the link if anyone wants to take a look (its an xls file):

http://www.shareholder.com/visitors...&id=9446869

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Old Post 08-10-2013 10:05 PM
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supe
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quote:

I follow it very very closely. I love everything there is to do with Tesla motors as well as the stock price. I am 99% sure that I will buy the Model X and I can't wait to see the Gen3 rip apart the auto industry.

I understand that based on stock price fundamentals this stock may not make sense hence the impalement of all the Tesla shorts however, this stock is future looking. Tesla with its first mass market vehicle built the best car ever made, there is no reason to believe that the Model X and the gen 3 will not be just as successful.

Elon's long term strategy has pretty much met every target to a tee, I don't see why the Gen 3 won't follow suit.

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Old Post 08-11-2013 12:37 AM
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Redlyne_mr2
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quote:

I think the only way for Tesla to do well in the long run is for someone to buy them out. With the mainstream manufacturers making huge strides in alternative energy cars I have a feeling Tesla will get left behind.

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rx7_turbo2
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quote:

Originally posted by supe
Tesla with its first mass market vehicle built the best car ever made



A fairly subjective statement.

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BigMass
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Re: Tesla Motors quote:

Originally posted by themack89
I'm wondering here if anyone has been following Tesla's stock?

What I see is $18 billion of market cap after they sold 5,000 cars for the quarter. Even at $70,000 a car, that is 51x quarterly revenues and/or trading at >665 times earnings (I don't know how to calculate when its negative, but it was -0.23).

That is a fuck ton of future value the market is pricing in. For perspective, Ford is valued at about $67bil, meaning Tesla is valued at 27% times that of Ford. Yes, Tesla is expanding into Asia and they figure thats where most of their sales will come from. Ford sold ~850,000 units last quarter in North America alone.

I am honestly in awe. Don't get me wrong, I think Elon Musk is a hero and he will continue to revolutionize the world more than he already has--I also think their product is great. But this is insane I think.



just another bubble like in 2000. People have no clue what to put money in because rates are 0 and real inflation is a concern. They're dumping their money into anything that moves. Stocks, houses, art, etc. This won't end well. Prices of anything now a day including Tesla stock has nothing to do with sound fundamentals.

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Old Post 08-11-2013 04:25 AM
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eatrice
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quote:

The stock is overpriced for sure. I've been following it closely since $20 range. Its currently priced atleast 2 years ahead of its actual earnings. I can see it drop back down to $70's with a missed quarter, bad press, or economic factors.

However, I do believe in the fundamentals of this company. The release of Model X and 4th gen is just a matter of when, not if. Current manufacturers are just not up to spec, and I do not see them being able to compete with Tesla within the next few years. In the short term though, I would not touch this stock, too much risk involved even if the fundamentals are good. Wait for it to drop.

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Old Post 08-11-2013 05:22 AM
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Sugarphreak
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quote:

LOL, Tesla is a giant bubble of false hopes.... a lot of people are going to get burned by that stock at some point.

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HiTempguy1
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quote:

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
LOL, Tesla is a giant bubble of false hopes.... a lot of people are going to get burned by that stock at some point.



If there was ever something to highlight how much the stock market has become like gambling, this is it.

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Old Post 08-11-2013 03:56 PM
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themack89
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quote:

So tempted to do an asymmetric downside play on this stock.

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Old Post 08-11-2013 08:19 PM
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Toma
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quote:

Originally posted by HiTempguy1


If there was ever something to highlight how much the stock market has become like gambling, this is it.



Become? It's been a scam since the 30's lol. Books have been written on what a scam it is every decade.

But that gets ignored. Cause when you are on the right side of the game...you win.

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Old Post 08-12-2013 05:37 AM
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ExtraSlow
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quote:

Only a little off topic
Elon has other fun plans to revolutionize travel, when he has time.
BBC News - Hyperloop between LA and SF

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Old Post 08-12-2013 01:12 PM
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supe
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quote:

Originally posted by rx7_turbo2


A fairly subjective statement.



Not really, this car won Motor Trends car of the year and also was rated a 99/100 by consumer reports and with the announcements the expansion of the super charger network and the quicker charge times it handles some of the concerns from the consumer reports review.

Anyway, I understand that there is a difference between Tesla the company and TSLA the stock. On one side we have a very successful startup tech company that is building new and exciting products backed by a genius wiz kid that is out to make the planet a better place. On the other hand we have a grossly over valued stock when measured in today dollars.

For me, because I can't find any substantial negative reviews on the product, because I believe the world needs a better mode of transport and EV's are that, because oil is inherently dirty and expensive I think Tesla is the solution and maybe TSLA can one day will justify that.

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Old Post 08-12-2013 03:57 PM
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rage2
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quote:

Tesla has a really strong marketing team, the general consensus is that they're outselling the big manufacturers, but looking at the fine print, they're outselling the big manufacturers in a single model comparison (this is key). In the short term, I think they're going to do quite well. Their technology is being used by big manufacturers as well (specifically, Toyota and Mercedes) so they're going down the right path.

The problem is long term. They can churn out all the Model X's they want, but they will have problems scaling up quickly to 10, 20 models like the big manufacturers. Look back at the Tesla promises, and you'll see that they've had delays and problems ramping up to target production numbers over the years. As with any leading edge company, they'll get fucked over if they can't scale fast enough. The big manufacturers can design, develop, and manufacture at rates that makes Tesla look like a backyard operation. If they feel like it's time that the market is ready for EV's, where all the showstoppers have been ironed out (quick charge, convenience of a gas vehicle, etc), they'll make Tesla look stupid. This is why Toyota and Mercedes is relying on Tesla today, it's a cheap way for them to get into the EV market and test the waters, without a heavy investment, and with a product that's proven with today's technological barriers.

EV's are still a novelty, anyone that think it will take over the world in the short term is dreaming. There needs to be so much infrastructure built to properly support it to make it fesible for critical mass. It can be the best product out there, but once it reaches critical mass, it doesn't matter. Shitty products sell, and is what rakes in the money. With that being said, Tesla needs to be able to scale up from a boutique manufacturer to a real manufacturing level to beat the big manufacturers. That means they'll need hundreds of billions of dollars behind them to all bet on EV being truly the path of the future, and take losses for a decade or 2 to be able to compete at that time. I don't see enough big investors willing to take that gamble with that much money.

I like to compare Tesla to Tivo, who introduced the world to DVR's with a product that was so awesome, it knew what you wanted to watch, and recorded stuff that thinks you might watch. They patented the shit out of those features so nobody could copy them. The box was perfect, and people started buying tons of them. Satellite and Cable providers partnered with Tivo and sold expensive Tivo boxes. Then, as DVR's reached critical mass, Satellite and Cable providers came out with shitty DVR's, which we still use today. It was cheaper, it wasn't anywhere near as smart or intuative as Tivo, it was a shittier product, but the key was that it was cheap. The masses chose the shittier mass produced products, and Tivo has been in decline since.

That's my take on Tesla.

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rx7_turbo2
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quote:

Originally posted by supe


Not really, this car won Motor Trends car of the year



Your using Motor Trends subjective review to suggest your statement that it's "the best car ever made" isn't subjective?

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Xtrema
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quote:

Tivo can't compete in a closed system environment, they were pretty much locked out during the digital switch on cable. Where Tesla's environment is a bit more open.

But I agree that the switch from boutique to mass manufacturer may not go well for Tesla. Novelty is what float the brand right now. They don't have the infrastructure and demand to line up suppliers like the traditional car manufacturers can. They were lucky to get NUMMI on the cheap to ramp up production.

I see Tesla will remain boutique like Ferrari but components will be sold to other manufacturers to further justify the investment of EV infrastructure. I don't see how they can compete on the low end ($35K) when there are a few players there already.

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Old Post 08-12-2013 05:20 PM
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rage2
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quote:

Originally posted by Xtrema
Tivo can't compete in a closed system environment, they were pretty much locked out during the digital switch on cable. Where Tesla's environment is a bit more open.


This is not true. Cable providers in the US are required by the FCC to support Cablecard (lobbied by Tivo and CEA), so that Tivo can't get fucked over by the cable companies when they switched to digital. The current Tivo HD boxes are all cablecard compliant boxes, and work on any US Cable provider.

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HiTempguy1
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quote:

Originally posted by supe


because oil is inherently dirty and expensive



And coal is clean? Lolwut?

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ercchry
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quote:

i think licensing is key. if they are successful in starting up these quick swap battery stations. people are going to want a 5min "fuel up", license these universal battery packs to the big guys... win

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Xtrema
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quote:

Originally posted by rage2

This is not true. Cable providers in the US are required by the FCC to support Cablecard (lobbied by Tivo and CEA), so that Tivo can't get fucked over by the cable companies when they switched to digital. The current Tivo HD boxes are all cablecard compliant boxes, and work on any US Cable provider.



Didn't know that. Then it's probably the bundling that muscle them out. Nobody will pay $400 for something that can be had for less.

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Old Post 08-12-2013 05:51 PM
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rage2
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quote:

Originally posted by Xtrema
Didn't know that. Then it's probably the bundling that muscle them out. Nobody will pay $400 for something that can be had for less.


Inability to scale killed Tivo. They couldn't scale up manufacturing to bring down costs compared to the "cheap dvr" manufacturers. If I remember right, the cost to build a Tivo box was 3-4x more than a Motorola crappy DVR. Then, there's the enhanced guide content that's needed for Tivo's cool features. Tivo had to maintain this data, and ship it out to the millions of subscribers. There's a cost attached to that, and Tivo requires a monthly subscription to help pay for the enhanced data. It just wasn't worth it to the average consumer at the other end.

Google up why tivo failed, tons of articles that can draw parallels to where Tesla is going.

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