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Mario38
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Lottery stats, discussion & group play quote:

The first draw for the new Lotto 649 game was held yesterday.

The $5 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 18 draw was not won and is an estimated $9 million for the next draw. Sales of $15.9 million were 9% lower than the average for the $2 version of the game. There was a 68% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 26% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 6% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was a low 38%. The jackpot was underfunded from sales by $1.6 million.

Good luck.

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Old Post 09-19-2013 05:44 PM
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ExtraSlow
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quote:

Mario, since you seem to be a statistics guy, maybe you can answer this for me.
Of the "conventional" lotteries (6/49, lottomax wester 6/49 etc), which one has the highest expected value payout per dollar spent?

You know, if you have a 1 in one million chance of winning a one million dollar prize, your expected value is $1. If that ticket costs $2, then yur e3xpected value is $0.50 per dollar spent.

This kind of calculation is much easier for things like the stampede lottery, or the home lotteries, as they have a limited number of tickets sold, no split prizes, and a known prize value.

Years ago, I tried to do this calculation, but given the variable payouts based on ticket sales, and the hard to define chance of multiple people buying the same numbers, I never made any headway. Maybe you can do better?

I garantee someone at the lottery corp knows this stuff, it's not impossible.

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Old Post 09-19-2013 06:28 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

ExtraSlow,

In general, most lottery games have an expected value of around 50%. That is because, on average, about 50% of sales are returned as prizes. Games with fixed prize payouts have fairly constant expected values. Games such as Lotto 649 and Lotto Max that have jackpots which increase in size when jackpots are not won have variable expected values. Their expected values start low when the jackpots are at their starting values. For example, Lotto Max with a $10 million jackpot has an expected value of around 27%. The recent Lotto 649 jackpot with a starting value of $5 million had an expected value of 38%. The $2 per ticket version of Lotto 649 with smaller starting jackpots had expected values that started at around 28%.

But as the Lotto 649 and Lotto Max jackpots grow, so do their expected values. Even though sales also increase when the jackpots get larger and increase the chance of a shared jackpot, the expected values still increase rather dramatically. There have been a few cases where the expected value of Lotto 649 draws exceeded 100%. For Lotto Max, the highest ever expected value was 74%. The Lotto Max expected values do not usually get as large as Lotto 649 because of the much higher ticket price.

So to answer your question, the games with the best expected values are Lotto 649 and Lotto Max BUT only when they have large jackpots. That is why I only buy tickets for these games and only when the jackpots are large. To overcome the poor odds of winning, I also only buy tickets as part of a group.

After each Lotto 649 and Lotto Max draw, I will report the expected value. I refer to it as the payout since I think the term is more widely understood.

Hope that helps.

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Old Post 09-19-2013 06:46 PM
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G
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quote:

It's useless info to me unless you can tell me after the fact...what can you tell me before the draw occurs?

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Old Post 09-19-2013 09:04 PM
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Disoblige
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quote:

Just wait till the next big jackpot again. I'll organize another pool. Last pool was $50 per person, and had 27 people ($1350.00 in tickets). The small amount of money we won was reinvested into more tickets, which eventually turned to nothing lol.

Maybe next one I'll try $100 per person, 30 people max.

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Old Post 09-19-2013 09:15 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

Originally posted by G
It's useless info to me unless you can tell me after the fact...what can you tell me before the draw occurs?



I do not understand what you are trying to say. What do you want to know before the draw occurs? Besides the winning numbers of course - which nobody knows!

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Old Post 09-19-2013 09:41 PM
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rx7boi
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quote:

He was being sarcastic.

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Old Post 09-19-2013 11:10 PM
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kenny
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quote:

Hey Mario38, I know lotto ticket sales increase as the jackpots get bigger, but is there a time of year where sales are slower? or higher? if so, when? Do ticket sales go up during major holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas?

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Old Post 09-19-2013 11:28 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

Originally posted by kenny
Hey Mario38, I know lotto ticket sales increase as the jackpots get bigger, but is there a time of year where sales are slower? or higher? if so, when? Do ticket sales go up during major holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas?



Online sales go down during holidays. For example, if Monday is a holiday, then sales for the Wednesday Lotto 649 draw are lower than average.

On the other hand, sales for scratch tickets go way up before Christmas. They are very popular for gift giving.

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Old Post 09-20-2013 12:00 AM
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Mario38
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quote:

The $10 million Lotto Max jackpot for the September 20 draw was not won and is a minimum $15 million for the next draw. Sales of $22.6 million were 40% lower than average and 11% lower than the previous draw and were the lowest sales since the November 26, 2010 draw. There was a 85% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 14% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 1% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was a very low 27%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $3.8 million.

Good luck.

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Old Post 09-21-2013 02:35 PM
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G
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quote:

With odds so big am I right to think my chances are nearly the same buying $2 versus buying $1000?

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Old Post 09-21-2013 05:38 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

Originally posted by G
With odds so big am I right to think my chances are nearly the same buying $2 versus buying $1000?



No, not at all. Spending $1,000 on Lotto 649 gives odds of 1 in 41,993 of winning the jackpot. Now spending that much money on one's own is not a wise thing to do. But spending that much as part of a group when the jackpot is large is the strategy I follow and recommend.

Good luck.

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Old Post 09-22-2013 12:29 AM
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Mario38
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quote:

The $9 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 21 draw was not won and is an estimated $13 million for the next draw. Sales of $19.3 million were 11% higher than the average for the $2 version of the game and 21% higher than the previous draw. There was a 63% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 29% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 8% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was a low 44%. The jackpot was underfunded from sales by $1.7 million.

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Old Post 09-22-2013 01:58 PM
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ianmcc
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quote:

Anyone play the 8 or 9 number combos?
We did an 8 number combo ($40) and won $70.
Try to figure the odds on those two combo plays!

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Old Post 09-22-2013 03:12 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

Originally posted by ianmcc
Anyone play the 8 or 9 number combos?
We did an 8 number combo ($40) and won $70.
Try to figure the odds on those two combo plays!



Combination tickets are not a good buy and I never play them. Spending the same amount of money on single tickets results in a larger combined expected value (payout) than a combination ticket. The problem with a combination ticket is you may win multiple second tier prizes. The second tier prizes have a parimutuel payment and therefore, as the number of prizes increase, the amount of the prize decreases. It is somewhat like buying two identical tickets - you are hoping to split the jackpot with yourself but at twice the cost.

Some people say they want to win multiple second tier prizes. That is understandable. But when one wins multiple second tier prizes with a combination ticket, it is usually in the situation in which they have also won the jackpot. That is, all 7 numbers in a Lotto 649 game match. In that situation, a player is giving up some expected value (payout) in order to win an amount greater than the jackpot. When is winning just the jackpot not enough?

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Old Post 09-22-2013 07:50 PM
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ianmcc
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quote:

Interesting read but rather than focus on amount of winnings I am looking at ROI.
For your $5 ticket you get three plays. For the same price as a nine number combo ($180) you get ($180 / $5) x 3 or 108 seven number combinations, each with only one possible prize . How does that compare to the 9 number combo-from what I see on the WCLC site it's only 36 winning combinations but total possible prizes are 306.
Bottom line-where is the best ROI? Is it 180 quick picks or the $180 nine number combo?

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Old Post 09-22-2013 10:01 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

Originally posted by ianmcc
Interesting read but rather than focus on amount of winnings I am looking at ROI.
For your $5 ticket you get three plays. For the same price as a nine number combo ($180) you get ($180 / $5) x 3 or 108 seven number combinations, each with only one possible prize . How does that compare to the 9 number combo-from what I see on the WCLC site it's only 36 winning combinations but total possible prizes are 306.
Bottom line-where is the best ROI? Is it 180 quick picks or the $180 nine number combo?



If one considers ROI as the same as payout and the same as expected value, then the best of the two options is $180 worth of quick picks.

An even better option than the two you presented is $180 worth of tickets with numbers and combinations selected that are not popular with other players.

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Old Post 09-22-2013 10:34 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

Originally posted by Disoblige
Just wait till the next big jackpot again. I'll organize another pool. Last pool was $50 per person, and had 27 people ($1350.00 in tickets). The small amount of money we won was reinvested into more tickets, which eventually turned to nothing lol.

Maybe next one I'll try $100 per person, 30 people max.



Hey Disoblige,

I see you ran a pool during the last big Lotto 649 jackpot. I also enjoy organizing lotto pools (groups) and have been doing it for years. I am waiting for the Lotto 649 jackpot to reach at least $20 million. I hope you don't mind that I also will be promoting my groups in this thread. I figure the more the merrier and the better chance we all have of winning.

The Lotto 649 jackpot has to roll two more time for the jackpot to reach $20 million. I estimate the odds of that happening to be around 35%. There is a possibility though, that even if the Lotto 649 jackpot is won in one of the next two draws, the following jackpot may be a large bonus draw. The lottery corps usually hold bonus draws when they launch new games. It is also likely since the Lotto Max jackpots have been relatively small lately.

Good luck.

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Old Post 09-24-2013 03:08 PM
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Mario38
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quote:

The $13 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the September 25 draw was not won and is an estimated $17 million for the next draw. Sales of $19.2 million were 10% higher than the average for the $2 version of the game and 1% lower than the previous draw. There was a 63% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 29% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 8% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was an above average 52%. The jackpot was underfunded from sales by $1 million.

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Old Post 09-26-2013 06:05 AM
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quote:

Mario

Why does it SEEM to be more older (over age 50+) jackpot winners than younger players? You know in those jackpot claims photos, they are mostly grandparents.

What age group spends the most on lotto tickets? Male/female?


Good to see a gambling expert here, you into slot machines?

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