Mario's Lottery Groups

[Mario38]

The $25 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the May 6 draw was not won and is a bonus $30 million for the next draw. Sales of $20.3 million were 19% higher than average and 11% higher than the previous draw. There was a 62% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 30% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 8% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was well above average at 74%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $1.3 million.

[ExtraSlow]

Any comment on the odds for 6/49 vs lottomax in these "bonus jackpot" scenarios?

[Seth1968]

Originally posted by Mario38
I am familiar with the story /snip/

I was referring to the odds of receiving a net gain from the investment.

It's not so much that I don't see your mathematical point in group play, but rather the odds of getting a net gain in the particular gambling games you play. For example, without meeting the astronomical odds of a jackpot prize, then the winnings for the also astronomical odds of second place are hilariously small.

That's exactly why I, and many others, don't play this type of gambling game.

I'm sure you can think of a gambling group play that has significantly better returns than what you're doing now.

[ExtraSlow]

I don't think mario is claiming that his lottery groups are a good investment, or that they have a positive expected value.

as far as I understand it, what he's saying is that if you enjoy playing and you are planning on playing anyway, joining larger groups gives you a better chance of winning a "sufficiently large" amount.

[Mario38]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Any comment on the odds for 6/49 vs lottomax in these "bonus jackpot" scenarios?

In general, Lotto 649 is a better buy than Lotto Max. This is still true for the bonus jackpots. The "bonus" is not that big deal in this scenario since the jackpot are being boosted by only a couple of million dollars for each draw. What is more significant is the fact sales are not that high for this round of large jackpots. This makes the probability of splitting the jackpot relatively low and in turn, boosting the payout.

[Mario38]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I don't think mario is claiming that his lottery groups are a good investment, or that they have a positive expected value.

as far as I understand it, what he's saying is that if you enjoy playing and you are planning on playing anyway, joining larger groups gives you a better chance of winning a "sufficiently large" amount.

Thanks ExtraSlow. That sums it up very well.

[Mario38]

Here is a gambling situation I was presented with the other day. Before I tell you my response and if I won or lost, I am curious on how others would respond.

I was offered a 50/50 bet - essentially a coin flip. The other party was willing to put up 20% more than me. That is, if I put up $5, the other person puts up $6 with a winner take all and a 50/50 chance of winning.

The question is, how much are you willing wager given a payout (expected value) of 110%?

[Seth1968]

Originally posted by Mario38


Thanks ExtraSlow. That sums it up very well.

Um...ok.

[ExtraSlow]

Seth, what don't you understand? You are correct that odds of a net gain are poor. Nobody is disputing that.
the "goal" of what he's doing isn't to maximize payback or expected value.

[Seth1968]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Seth, what don't you understand? You are correct that odds of a net gain are poor. Nobody is disputing that.
the "goal" of what he's doing isn't to maximize payback or expected value.

Ok. So what then?

[ExtraSlow]

Basically, these groups make sense if three conditions are met

1) you already want to play this type of lottery. Reasons could be anything, but many people get some joy from dreaming about what they would do with a life-changing amount of money.

2) You find it acceptable to lower the total amount of your potential jackpot but increase your odds of winning a "sufficiently large" amount. (this is why these groups don't play smaller jackpots, because it's not worthwhile splitting a five million dollar jackpot into 100 shares)

3) you still understand that your best financial decision is NOT TO PLAY.

[ExtraSlow]

I did an analysis and from an "expected value" standpoint, as long as you attend the stampede and had plans to buy rodeo or grandstand tickets already, the stampede lotteries are far and away the best value, because you can get back a large percentage of your purchase price in discounts.

That discussion is buried way back in June of 2014 in this same thread.

Mario does make it pretty clear back then that for an average player, there is no way to consider any form of lottery to be an investment.

[Mario38]

Group A45 launched to buy tickets for the Lotto 649 draw on Wednesday, May 10. The jackpot is a bonus $30 million. Cost to join is $20 per share.

The A groups plan to buy at least 1,056 Lotto 649 tickets for the May 10 draw giving odds of 1 in 13,242 of winning the jackpot.

The A groups won $250 and 144 free tickets in the May 6 Lotto 649 draw.

[Mario38]

The $30 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the May 10 draw was won - one winning ticket sold in Ontario. Sales of $21.5 million were 26% higher than average and 6% higher than the previous draw. There was a 60% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 31% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 9% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was well above average at 83%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $1.7 million placing the Guaranteed Prize Fund at a new record deficit of $56.4 million.

[Mario38]

The $28 million Lotto Max jackpot for the May 12 draw was not won and is an estimated $37 million for the next draw. Sales of $30.5 million were 21% lower than average and 6% higher than the previous draw. There was a 81% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 17% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 2% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was very low at 38%. The jackpot was fully funded from sales.

[Mario38]

The $5 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the May 13 draw was not won and is a minimum $7 million for the next draw. Sales of $15.4 million were 9% lower than average and 28% lower than the previous draw. There was a 69% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 26% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 5% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was very low at 39%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $1.7 million.

[Mario38]

The S groups bought 191 tickets for the Euro Millions draw on Friday, May 19. The jackpot is an estimated C$160 million. Each share in Group S9 can win C$2 million.

Group U16 bought 10 Powerball tickets for the May 17 draw. The jackpot is an estimated U$124.9 million - position 64 in the list of largest ever US jackpots. Each share can win C$1.3 million after taxes.

[Mario38]

The $7 million Lotto 649 jackpot for the May 17 draw was not won and is an estimated $10 million for the next draw. Sales of $14.1 million were 17% lower than average and 9% lower than the previous draw. There was a 72% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 24% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 4% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was very low at 43%. The jackpot was under funded from sales by $0.4 million.

[Mario38]

The $37.4 million Lotto Max jackpot for the May 19 draw was not won and is capped at $50 million plus a minimum of 2 Maxmillions for the next draw. Sales of $33.4 million were 14% lower than average and 10% higher than the previous draw. There was a 79% chance the jackpot would not be won, a 19% chance of 1 winning ticket and a 2% chance of 2 or more winners. The payout was low at 44%. The jackpot was fully funded from sales.

[Mario38]

Group S10 launched to buy tickets for the May 23 Euro Millions draw. The jackpot is an estimated C$175 million. The cost per share is $20.

The S groups bought 180 tickets for the Euro Millions draw on May 23.

Group U16 plans to buy Powerball tickets for the May 24 draw. The jackpot is an estimated U$154.8 million - position 44 in the list of the largest ever US jackpots. Each share can win C$1.6 million.