Official Short-term Investments Thread

[jacky4566]

Energy just cant grab any purchase today :/

However anyone holding LABD is in the green today!

[bspot]

As someone holding LABU way too long, I sure hope XBI just bounced of the ~53.50 resistance.

[riander5]

Originally posted by ickyflex
OPEC Killed the rally lol

Rose production in march and Libya wants to raise production to 2011 levels (about 1 million higher)

Fucking finally, i was starting to get depressed about my lack of entry point for oil when i missed the 37-38 dollar swing.

37-38 bullish run to now was a tough one to spot technically... but the run from 35 i feel like an idiot not getting in then as there were many technical indicators lining up for that one.

Heres hoping for a good entry point around 40

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot
As someone holding LABU way too long, I sure hope XBI just bounced of the ~53.50 resistance.

I unloaded mine a couple days ago. I'm looking to buy again soon.

If I was still holding, I'd be looking to buy more soon. haha

[asp integra]

Added some more TCK today. Been on a great run the last month and a bit, wish I would have bought in heavily in January, oh well, hindsight is 20-20

[SilverRex]

added some more meg today. everything is way oversold imo

P.S and no I didnt just keep increasing my position size as that would be scary to hold onto. but I did sell half of my position this morning near 6.87 and 6.92 and i am buying back lower.

[Manhattan]

MEG seems to be underperforming other oil plays with much higher debt levels. Q1 report was positive. Super high trading volumes recently. Is it just being manipulated by day traders?

[bspot]

SilverRex, I can't post pictures from here, but looking at XBI, are we just in a potentially nasty c wave?

I'm looking at Mar 17 as the beginning of wave i, and April 18 as the end of v.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
SilverRex, I can't post pictures from here, but looking at XBI, are we just in a potentially nasty c wave?

I'm looking at Mar 17 as the beginning of wave i, and April 18 as the end of v.

correct. the high could a failed wave v and this is higher degree IV with one more leg to go. however a drawn out c wave is possible, and wave c are typically sharp and painful too.

because of how oversold it is on the 5 RSI, I expect a swing to begin next week

[Vanish3d]

Gold and miners just don't want to crash.

[ercchry]

Just checked on DGC... Why did I stop holding that one?!?!

[SilverRex]

some big volume is coming in on IBB/XBI looks like someone is expecting a rebound next week

[bball2]

Big volume spike in LABU @ $30 around noon today as well

[SilverRex]

pretty crazy week. If there is one thing ive learn over and over again and that is to always try to take profit off the table. because when price suddenly decides to move against you or even into a consolidation period, you can buy back and the profit is equally staggering. Meg was a good example. but so long as oil is in a bullish uptrend, I am not too worry at this time.

looking at oil on the daily chart (ignore the sharp candles as I am unsure as to why my chart is spitting it out like that) as you can see the breakout above 45 (green line) is so far sustainable and is one reason why oil continues to be bought into every dip. despite the stock market selling off (most likely due to AAPL) amongst some other weak earnings of late. Oil is doing extremely well.

it is either the inflationary scare is back on the table hence dollar down, all commodities up. and is pulling oil up as well. but charts dont lie even if it is a lagging indicator.

as long as oil remains above the green line which now should act as a good support, I expect oil will find its way to the top of this rising channel (red) 48-51 int coming weeks.

[SilverRex]

while on the topic of oil, lets look at Meg. it has so far reached the bottom of the rising channel. so long oil price remains above 40, I do not expect Meg to break below this especially the 50DMA at 6.19. and count wise I am expecting this to be a wave ii correction as long as price do not break below the previous higher high at 6.25 if price does find its way back to the top of this channel to start taking profits but leave a small position for a chance that a breakout will occur at one of these rallies.

[SilverRex]

lets look at XBI.

wave C are often sharp and painful and may even dive below the previous wave a low which is at 53.42 but so far it is holding up well and if you look at IBB it actually already made a lower low and is currently sitting at the 50DMA. so if this count to remain valid, it must reverse next week otherwise it risk technically damaging other charts which will turn it further bearish.

xbi must remain abouve previous sub wave i top near 52.60 which is also the uptrend line and 50DMA, how simple can it get?

RSI 5 is extremely oversold, if this is a true bullish rally, it will bounce quite soon.

failure to hold above what I just mention, it would turn this entire rise off Feb low as a counter trend bear rally with a chance at lower low lies ahead. thats what we dont want. so if your playing this sector, watch these levels carefully.

[SilverRex]

all eyes next week is really the US dollar because if is now right at support and very close to testing or breaking the previous Aug low last year. obviously a breakdown below this channel will mean gold to go insanely much higher which I do not prefer as miners as already (the ones I like anyways have gone up 300-350%) ive heard juniors has gone up 600%.

a correction will occur, as it has always thru history and the higher it goes up without a significant pull back the deeper it can snap back as it is stretched way above its mean.

the ideal scenario is that US dollar remains range bound in this channel and so for this declining wedge to do a fake breakdown next week only to reverse like it did back in Aug. hopefully this is the technical signal gold needs to correct into June. (I kept talking about a low in May) but gold has broken to the upside above 1283 which means it was a failed low and the previous high was extended.

[SilverRex]

market trying to find a low while the US dollar technically as broken a key support. I am waiting to see if the market will reverse.

miners has gap up for the 3rd time making it extremely overbought. I am going to expect a big pull back in this sector once a top is in place.

surprised at how weak Meg is performing, oil unable to make new high does not help the cause. last line of defense is 6.00 and 6.25 I will not add any more position and may even reduce my position if it closes below 6.00 but if it doesnt I will continue to hold to ride out the current shake out. this area is also the 50/200 DMA which makes it a very strong support but at the same time very dramatic if it does not hold

[SilverRex]

the rising channel has technically shifted down slightly. Again to reiterate the importance of Meg holding above 6.00 in this area.

[SilverRex]

we have a very nice reversal candle in biotech in the lower time frame. is this is turn?