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Thread: Official Short-term Investments Thread

  1. #23101
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    Default hmm

    how do you guys feel about Novus Energy ? NVS:CN

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    PXL.V had a nice jump today. Have my doubts that will continue though. Spartan did nice today as well.
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    Default Re: hmm

    Originally posted by Anergex
    how do you guys feel about Novus Energy ? NVS:CN
    I like it.

    http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-novus-energy/
    Last edited by davidI; 02-19-2012 at 02:56 AM.

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    Default

    Buy REL.V

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    oh? Big news?

    One of our company men out here told me a buddy of his just drilled a well estimated to be 500barrels/d in the AB Bakken. Just goes to show there is potential down there. The worst part is he can't remember what company it was...apparently it is in the news now.
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    Originally posted by msommers
    oh? Big news?

    One of our company men out here told me a buddy of his just drilled a well estimated to be 500barrels/d in the AB Bakken. Just goes to show there is potential down there. The worst part is he can't remember what company it was...apparently it is in the news now.
    IP or average?

    http://bakkenshale.blogspot.com/2008...ine-rates.html

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    Default

    He didn't say and I forgot to ask but I would highly suspect that's initial.
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    I'm not sure if this has been posted before as I recall seeing it somewhere, but it's a good presentation on the Alberta Bakken. It just so happens that the CEO of Passport was one of my profs in University.

    http://www.passportenergy.com/pdf/AL...MORESEARCH.pdf

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    Oh yea, and the Type Curve is on Page 18. High initial declines. Looks like wells with an IP of 1000+ bopd are common.

    Also worth reviewing (though the information in the BMO report is probably better)
    http://www.internationalfrontier.com...Update-on-ROSE

    and from December 12, 2011

    Summary and Recommendation This morning, Rosetta Resources (ROSE - NASDAQ) announced its 2012 capital spending budget and initial Alberta Bakken well results. The Company’s 2012 capex was set at $640 million, above our estimate of $502.4 million. On a positive note, management reiterated its 2012 production guidance of 220 – 240 Mmcfe/d. ROSE also provided results from its initial two Alberta Bakken wells, which had stabilized rates of 154 boe/d and 104 boe/d, below management’s type curve IP of 250 boe/d. While the Alberta Bakken results came in below expectations, we do not believe much is priced in to the current share price for the Alberta Bakken. In our opinion, shares are attractive based on its Eagle Ford shale position alone and we view the Alberta Bakken as option value. More importantly, we believe the Company’s results will improve as they drill additional wells and move up the learning curve. All in all, while the stock is down on higher than expected capital spending for 2012 and disappointing Alberta Bakken well results, we continue to view the play as option value and believe the sell off provides a buying opportunity.
    from https://commerce.us.reuters.com/purc...docid=58138416

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    Great info!
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    Originally posted by msommers
    Great info!
    Yeah I've been following his blog for awhile now, definitely learned a lot.

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    Thanks guys...not finding a lot of time for it now but once my MSc is done and I have more clarity with my job I'll try to get to the more general educational articles.

    Check out timingthemarket.ca and equityclock.com for great, Canadian specific information provided by experienced and well-known technical analysts. I don't give any "macro" views on my site because these guys provide it all in a great format already. Don Vialoux is always quoted on the Financial Post and often provides his analysis and opinions on BNN.

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    Default Re: Re: hmm

    Originally posted by davidI


    I like it.

    http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-novus-energy/
    Not sure what price you looked at them in your analysis, but they're trading at $68K/flowing (at exit rate) when you throw in their debt of $40MM. As for debt to cash flow, looks like it's about 2:1 just off their Q3 financials. I think you were looking at their gross revenue vs funds flow. I think for oil & gas, gross revenue can be very misleading due to GORs, LORs, and the like. I think looking at FFO makes a lot more sense. I haven't looked in a while at NVS, but they're in the Cardium now too?? Their reports don't mention Wapiti in the 2012 guidance? Plus they missed Q1 expectations last year (following me last dumping them)... not liking it enough to buy yet.

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    Default Re: Re: Re: hmm

    Originally posted by Feruk

    Not sure what price you looked at them in your analysis, but they're trading at $68K/flowing (at exit rate) when you throw in their debt of $40MM. As for debt to cash flow, looks like it's about 2:1 just off their Q3 financials. I think you were looking at their gross revenue vs funds flow. I think for oil & gas, gross revenue can be very misleading due to GORs, LORs, and the like. I think looking at FFO makes a lot more sense. I haven't looked in a while at NVS, but they're in the Cardium now too?? Their reports don't mention Wapiti in the 2012 guidance? Plus they missed Q1 expectations last year (following me last dumping them)... not liking it enough to buy yet.
    Thanks for those comments.

    The $51k/flowing is based on the 2012 estimated exit of ~4,500k boepd. I didn't make the 2012 exit statement clear in my post so thanks for mentioning it and I have fixed it in the post. I used an EV of $230 million ($50mm debt + $180mm market cap @ $1.02 per share / 4,500 = $51k / flowing.) Using the 3,300 boed forecast average 2012 would provide ~$70k/flowing, which is still relatively cheap in my mind.

    I stated net debt to cashflow at year end of 2012 of only 1.2x. Forecast cash flow is $51.7mm and net debt is $61.4mm. This is straight from CanAccord research. Novus forecasts net debt of $59 million and $52 million in cash flow at year end (2012) which would be 1.13x.

    Total Debt to Assets is 0.38.

    I also just read some recent research confirming the 16 well downspacing prospects in the viking. This hasn't been included in reserve growth or F&D for NVS yet. Sproule is apparently booking these downspaced reserves at ~75% EUR compared to the initial 8 well/section spacing, so that bodes well for future announcements.

    They've got less than 10 net sections in the Wapiti Cardium and Dunvegan, so not a big deal yet. They do figure 30 risked drilling locations though.

    Definitely appreciate your comments though - always good to have someone critiquing my calculations. Feel free to post your comments on the site itself as well.

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    No post comments here so we can all see them in one place haha.
    Ultracrepidarian

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    I subscribe to Keith Schaefer's spammy oil and gas bulletin newsletter. I don't pay the subscription fee for his services, but do like to read his occasional informational letter. He does have a good track record, but won't usually tell you what he's following unless you sign up and pay ($400/year).

    Today's letter was about the AB Bakken, of which I've seen some interest in this thread. I'm still not sure which company he's talking about though...perhaps someone on here will recognize the details he does give?

    http://www.oilandgas-investments.com...stock-in-play/

    I tried to bold the potential 'identifiers'

    Dear OGIB Reader,

    In short, this is one of the most profitable oil plays I have ever seen.

    I can’t tell you the name of it – as it’s an OGIB portfolio stock – but I will tell you exactly why this has just become one of the most significant investment opportunities the Oil Patch will see in 2012.

    I’ll explain below why the stakes have just been raised, including its newest well results, and how this new “core” play earns an amazing 7:1 payback.

    Most importantly, I’ll explain how a full combination of factors – which have just now come together, almost perfectly – could “slingshot” this company’s share price to multiples of the current price.

    As I said, the situation has changed entirely, as the company’s newest well results just came in – nearly doubling expectations.

    For starters, I can now confirm their new core play has LOTS of running room. I’m talking about 150 different well locations… perhaps even 200 – and drilling that will last years, with high-growth production, fast payback, and low decline rates.

    That means this company – this trade – is no longer an exploration play.

    It is a low-cost, low-risk, high-growth resource play
    – the best kind of play. It’s what the market pays UP for.

    And it still has a discounted valuation.

    On the whole, the company’s production is growing quickly — having increased more than 50% in the last 3 months. And it will continue to ramp up quickly as at least 12 more of these wells get drilled this year in its new core play alone.

    But here’s the amazing thing I’ve discovered about the oil being produced here…

    I mentioned low decline rates above. Well, in reality they have one of the absolute lowest decline rates I have ever witnessed in North America.

    On top of that, the payback on their newest well is at the most just 3 months. Keep in mind that most operators in North America are happy with payback at 2 years!

    And because all this new, fast-growing production is OIL — highly profitable oil — this will increase the overall value per barrel for the company. More barrels, and more value per barrel.

    That’s the “slingshot” effect I expect to see from the market’s valuation.

    I’m not alone. Four major brokerage analysts have price targets nearly 2X the current share price.

    And all 4 of those were issued before news broke on the company’s new well results.

    This company has unlocked the huge production potential of this new play. I anticipate a 50% increase in cash flow per share and production per share this year.


    That’s why I think this is one of the best organic growth stories of 2012.

    But here’s the biggest bonus of all:

    A huge Bakken oil play — one that’s now FREE for investors. Let me explain…
    The Alberta Bakken:
    Here’s How You Can
    Get the AB “for FREE”

    I’ve written extensively about the Alberta Bakken – the high-potential but still unproven oil formation in Alberta and western Montana.

    The Alberta Bakken cannot compare with the much bigger and more well known Williston Basin Bakken.

    But the AB has the potential to be an extremely large play, with a substantial amount oil to recover. That’s why land prices in the Alberta Bakken soared from under $100 per acre two years ago – to an average $820 per acre in 2011, with a maximum reaching $3,300/acre.

    And this junior company has one of the largest land positions – if not THE largest – in the entire Alberta Bakken play.

    More importantly, it has drilled the best reported well in the play, to date.

    Best of all – we’re essentially now getting the Alberta Bakken for FREE. Here’s what I mean by that:

    As I said, management is already expecting a huge 50% per share increase in production and cash flow in 2012. (That’s what the market pays for the MOST… They pay for per share upticks in production and cash flow.)

    And none of that increase is expected from the Alberta Bakken. It’s coming from their new core play.

    So not only is the new growth curve NOT priced into the stock, investors are now getting hundreds of thousands of acres of Alberta Bakken — FOR FREE.

    In fact, other companies are spending big money – the early, high-risk money – just to get into the play.

    But the joint venture partners aren’t just spending money in the ground… They’re giving my # 1 junior oil company cold, hard cash.

    That’s why this stock is now a capital opportunity for investors… a fast-growing producer of light oil and profitable liquid-rich gas, a discounted valuation, low debt levels… and the ability to get their entire Alberta Bakken for FREE.

    Of course there’s much more you need to know about this opportunity, including one of the key drivers in the play…

    You see, the play itself is cut off to the north, east, and west.

    Why is that important? Well, the Alberta Bakken is fully staked. So, if anyone wants to play in this sandbox… they now have to buy their way in.

    And that’s great news for my # 1 junior oil company in the play – and its investors… because success makes this company an instant takeover target.

    Like I said, it holds an extremely large section of prime Alberta Bakken property.

    So much acreage, in fact… it simply can’t develop all of its Bakken properties single-handedly.

    And its JV partner agreed to pay 100% of the cost to drill 4 wells – at $4 million a pop – just to earn 60% of a small part of the play.


    That ‘small part’ is just a few dozen sections – a fraction of my #1 junior oil pick’s total land position!

    That should give you an idea of how many wells this junior oil producer could drill on its 100%-owned properties.

    Hundreds.

    And we investors now have all this potential for FREE.

    So I’ve just shared with you why I think this small company has major success in its sights.

    Here’s What I See as the
    Next Catalyst for the Stock

    As I said, they have now drilled four successful wells in their new “core” area. The newest well DOUBLED management’s expectations, which means it is Game On.

    In other words, this play isn’t just imminent – it’s happening NOW, with 12 more wells expected to be drilled in 2012.

    And, after all this activity, they’ll still have over 150 well locations — and several years of drilling inventory.


    It’s truly an exciting time for this company. That’s why I just added to my initial position in the Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin portfolio this month.

    It is a dream scenario for a junior oil & gas company: Small company… big land position… fast-growing production… and major oil companies knocking at your door to get into one of your plays.

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    Bowood shot up today, so far...20% and the markets have been open 30minutes. I should have took the plunge instead of being a nancy.
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    Originally posted by msommers
    Bowood shot up today, so far...20% and the markets have been open 30minutes. I should have took the plunge instead of being a nancy.
    Yea, that may be based on Keith if BWD is the company he's talking about (his article didn't seem to fit with BWD to me, but maybe) or perhaps it's the well announcement, which I still can't find. I must give Keith credit for being a market mover at times - He gave RLE.V a solid pop a couple of weeks ago.

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    Originally posted by davidI
    Today's letter was about the AB Bakken, of which I've seen some interest in this thread. I'm still not sure which company he's talking about though...perhaps someone on here will recognize the details he does give?
    He's a clever man in his vagueness trying to get people to subscribe. Too bad I'm more clever. I'm almost certain he's talking about DeeThree exploration (DTX). Everything matches pretty well.

    Looking at them, they've got some interesting properties actually. I like their Belly River play very much. This one requires more thought on my part as I value them at $4.27 based on their 2012 average production, and they're at $4.11 today. I can't seem to find their expected 2012 exit rate though? That may change my view. Thoughts DavidI?

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    Thanks man! I was hoping you'd chime in. I'll see if I can track down any research on them through my usual sources.

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