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Thread: Official Short-term Investments Thread

  1. #23281
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    Originally posted by ragu


    Why go with CPG when PWT offers similar dividend rate? Since you went with growth route, what's your quick say on PWT vs. CPG or other og growth companies?
    My CPG stock came out of the sale of WSX. I like CPG's charts but have felt it's overvalued so never chose to buy directly. I was actually looking to sell it but we didn't reach my exit target before this recent market drop. It tends to be relatively defensive and is a dividend payer (which will be a bad thing once governments start raising rates) but is a good hold during this period.

    I haven't looked at PWT for a few years. Their balance sheet was pretty gnarly for a while. I think it's improved, but I'm honestly not seeking high-dividend stocks right now. I don't really like chasing the bigger companies for growth either. I make value buys in shops like CNQ and SU for their long-term predictability, and chase growth through juniors who are looking to develop and sell.

    There are a lot of 'growth opportunities' priced into CPG and such, and the larger the companies become, the harder it is to be a growth shop.

    I have no fucking idea what to do at the moment. Wait and see I guess. This could be a minor correction or the sign of a bigger thing. Europe has really made it tough to be a stock picker...the markets have really moved in tandem this last year and these large scale buying days and sell-offs are the product of the bigger trading firms...fucking us little guys.

    Euro_trash, I like ARX. I'd wait until it finds bottom though. It has broken some key supports. I'm watching it too. Once my dissertation is done I'll be looking at it further.

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    I would NOT be buying ARX right now. Look at their financial statements. They pay more out in distributions than they make! This can only go two ways:
    1) They cut dividend - stock drops
    2) They don't cut dividend - rack on debt, devalue company

    Their only out is higher gas prices. I've see predictions of $1/mcf by summer, so the exact opposite. They have good assets, but any company that pays out more than they make is a terrible investment in my opinion.

    For oil producers with the bulk of production in Canada: I'm bearish on every one until I see a reversal in trends. I'm only holding WCP and doubled down on ARN too early (~$4.75 level). The only oil company I'm even considering right now in BNK, but think it'll go lower. Monday might be the news that reverses the trend on BNK, but I don't chase stocks on the way down.
    Last edited by Feruk; 04-05-2012 at 01:43 PM.

  3. #23283
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    Haha, shit, when I saw ARX I was thinking Barrick Gold (ABX).I don't know anything about ARX. This thesis is blinding me. On page 96 now though!

    Barrick had significant support at $42 which it blew through, thus my comment on the technicals. Its RSI is also below 30, an oversold sign. I haven't had time to read much on Barrick's fundamentals though.

  4. #23284
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    Vanilla beans anyone?

    http://www.foodanddrinkdigital.com/p...es-this-summer

    "It is understood that around 40 per cent of the world supply of black vanilla – around 1,000 tonnes – was recently shipped out of Madagascar following a sudden jump in orders.

    In just two months the global price of vanilla has risen from around 25 dollars per kilo to between 35 and 40 dollars."

    So some weenietard just bought up 40% of the worlds supply in one shipment. Hunt Brothers got nothing on this guy.
    Trumps' signature is fraud by design.

  5. #23285
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    Yeah I saw the EPS was less than the annual dividend - unfortunate as I think it is a well ran company. I expect we will see them take on more debt to fund the dividend.

    As for gas prices, I am as bearish as you. I wouldn't be surprised to see <$1 unless something extreme happens.
    Quote Originally Posted by DonJuan View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Yo bro, are you from that goat Calgary car forum that get salty over lawn care, land rovers and circumcisions? That's straight fire.

  6. #23286
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    I once owned shares of a trust that paid more than they made. True Energy Trust. They did not cut the dividend and used debt to fund it. Over a few years, stock went from $22 to $1. Never again for me. When you're paying out more than you make, I think the concept of "well run" no longer applies. They're betting gas prices will turn around before they have to cut (as they don't have to for a long time), but I'd just rather have my money in a more sustainable company.

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    What are thoughts on TransAlta? Dividend growth seems to be really stagnant over past few years but financials are okay.

    What are some safe, solid dividend (5%+) stocks?

  8. #23288
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    Enerplus
    Ultracrepidarian

  9. #23289
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    Enbridge is probably the best safe stock you can buy.
    Something like 13% gain per year for the last decade.

  10. #23290
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    Originally posted by Feruk
    I would NOT be buying ARX right now. Look at their financial statements. They pay more out in distributions than they make! This can only go two ways:
    1) They cut dividend - stock drops
    2) They don't cut dividend - rack on debt, devalue company

    Their only out is higher gas prices. I've see predictions of $1/mcf by summer, so the exact opposite. They have good assets, but any company that pays out more than they make is a terrible investment in my opinion.

    For oil producers with the bulk of production in Canada: I'm bearish on every one until I see a reversal in trends. I'm only holding WCP and doubled down on ARN too early (~$4.75 level). The only oil company I'm even considering right now in BNK, but think it'll go lower. Monday might be the news that reverses the trend on BNK, but I don't chase stocks on the way down.
    I'm not sure I agree with you on ARX. From the looks of it, you're basing your opinion off Q4 and net income, which is meaningless in the O&G industry. ARX has some amazing plays coming up and they've hedged some great netbacks as well (both in oil and gas production). Along with the capex budget they threw out for 2012, I can see a lot of upside coming out of the company.

    I'd respectively disagree with the oil producers in Canada comment as well. In the short term, SCO is hugely discounted to WTI, but this is expected to be corrected shortly. Many analysts in the industry expect the differential between light oil produced here and WTI to shrink rapidly in coming months (I believe May contracts are more in line than today...but I'd have to double check that). Hopefully that'll mean an upside to many oil producers in the next few months...

    I like your thinking on BNK though...maybe look at Niko as well if you're into internationals!

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    Originally posted by borN
    I'm not sure I agree with you on ARX. From the looks of it, you're basing your opinion off Q4 and net income, which is meaningless in the O&amp;G industry. ARX has some amazing plays coming up and they've hedged some great netbacks as well (both in oil and gas production). Along with the capex budget they threw out for 2012, I can see a lot of upside coming out of the company.

    I'd respectively disagree with the oil producers in Canada comment as well. In the short term, SCO is hugely discounted to WTI, but this is expected to be corrected shortly. Many analysts in the industry expect the differential between light oil produced here and WTI to shrink rapidly in coming months (I believe May contracts are more in line than today...but I'd have to double check that). Hopefully that'll mean an upside to many oil producers in the next few months...

    I like your thinking on BNK though...maybe look at Niko as well if you're into internationals!
    I totally agree that net income means nothing, and it's not what I'm basing my analysis on. In Q4 FFO was $226.6MM, capital spending and dividend payments was $281.7MM. They spent more than they made racking on debt. Same is true for full year 2011. Without such a high dividend, they would've likely broke even.

    I talked to a trader buddy and he's agreeing with you on the price spreads to decrease in the coming months. I'll have to look at some Canadian names this week.

    I've looked at NKO back around the $100 mark a couple years ago and haven't looked back since. Might take a look...

  12. #23292
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    Originally posted by borN


    I'd respectively disagree with the oil producers in Canada comment as well. In the short term, SCO is hugely discounted to WTI, but this is expected to be corrected shortly. Many analysts in the industry expect the differential between light oil produced here and WTI to shrink rapidly in coming months (I believe May contracts are more in line than today...but I'd have to double check that). Hopefully that'll mean an upside to many oil producers in the next few months...

    A lot of SCO producers have also been hammered because of all the recent upgrader fires and such. Suncor, CNRL, COS, AOSC are all worth watching IMO.

    Just gotta figure out the bigger picture and how far this pullback will be.

  13. #23293
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    What worries me is the bigger picture and the external shock that results from a potential Euro collapse. And it's not looking too good over there. I prefer to be optimistic about it but it seems like things will get a lot worse before it gets better in Europe.

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    Spain is going to fuck us. Hope everyone is enjoying solid cash positions at the moment.

    I feel bad I haven't been doing many Blog updates, but there isn't really anything I'm prepared to recommend at the moment and I really can't pick any solid supports. I don't feel bad though, reading http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/ I can tell Don doesn't want to pick any bottoms either.

    I took a few capital gains and a couple losses on my larger holds on the pullback and am just waiting for bottom now. Sort of hoping for a crash! Sitting on a few of my juniors and planning to add to those positions - they're less predictable than the large caps.

    I think earnings are going to provide a bit of support, but we'll see what comes out of Europe.

    Starting to think an MBA a a European school would be fun. The Euro has been hammered.

    My thesis should be done this week, so those of you who enjoyed my blog posts can expect them to start-up again soon.

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    Originally posted by davidI

    Barrick had significant support at $42 which it blew through, thus my comment on the technicals. Its RSI is also below 30, an oversold sign. I haven't had time to read much on Barrick's fundamentals though.
    May have found support. Up 2%+ today, gold is only up <1%. I'm still not buying, though.

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    I've sold about 5 stocks in the last week and have not picked up anything new. I'm mostly back in cash and am gonna stay there for a while. Only positions I still have for short term are ARN (Arcan), Miranda Technologies (MT) which has a tight stop loss on it, and Avion Gold (AVR) that's just turned into a disaster cuz of a bunch of stupid rebels in Mali. The rest are dividend payers which I'll likely hold for years anyway.

  17. #23297
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    TOL.V with a huge drop today. Not happy about Q4 results?
    Ultracrepidarian

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    Originally posted by msommers
    TOL.V with a huge drop today. Not happy about Q4 results?
    I almost invested in these guys last month, but their numbers didn't add up thankfully. Look at their Q4 again. It all sounds nice and rosy until you skip all the written fluff and get down to the numbers.
    (1) Reserves: total proved and 2P both DOWN (they tell you Cardium reserves are up 41%, but don't bother to mention they have less actual reserves on the books than last year)
    (2) Production: Q3 2010 avg = 1,552boe/d, Q4 2011 avg = 1,408boe/d. They spent $30 million in capital last year... to not even cover decline quarter over quarter.
    (3) They want to spend $100 million to get from 2,100boe/d to 3,500boe/d. Let's throw on 35% decline to be fair, ignore that we're 3 months in, and they have to find ~2,130boe/d to meet their target. If you need $100 million for that, you've got a serious spending craze (or your wells suck compared to what you press released as even your lowest IP90 is 2X higher then expectations). This is what kept me out of the stock before (well H1 data previously released). They stated a $40MM capital budget but I could only get to $32.4MM (adding up their theoretical drilling costs times planned drills). Just my opinion though.

  19. #23299
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    Originally posted by Feruk

    I almost invested in these guys last month, but their numbers didn't add up thankfully. Look at their Q4 again. It all sounds nice and rosy until you skip all the written fluff and get down to the numbers.
    (1) Reserves: total proved and 2P both DOWN (they tell you Cardium reserves are up 41%, but don't bother to mention they have less actual reserves on the books than last year)
    (2) Production: Q3 2010 avg = 1,552boe/d, Q4 2011 avg = 1,408boe/d. They spent $30 million in capital last year... to not even cover decline quarter over quarter.
    (3) They want to spend $100 million to get from 2,100boe/d to 3,500boe/d. Let's throw on 35% decline to be fair, ignore that we're 3 months in, and they have to find ~2,130boe/d to meet their target. If you need $100 million for that, you've got a serious spending craze (or your wells suck compared to what you press released as even your lowest IP90 is 2X higher then expectations). This is what kept me out of the stock before (well H1 data previously released). They stated a $40MM capital budget but I could only get to $32.4MM (adding up their theoretical drilling costs times planned drills). Just my opinion though.
    I cover these guys, so won't say much. But like many companies, TOL's reserves gone down predicated primarily on natural gas pricing. The oil reserves haven't increased much on a proved basis, but they now account for a lot more of the reserve base as a whole (and the prolific oil plays its in is the main growth story here). A lot of upside to come hopefully with the Dunvegan and Cardium ramping up...

    The market was just trash today, so lets see what happens when the market rebounds!

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    From Dec 9th 2011:
    Originally posted by bitteeinbit
    I added to TGL yesterday as I didn't sell during the short rally last week. Hopefully it pays off. I'm confident but if it dips below 7.5$ I'm packing my bags. I think the upside is huge though. I almost managed to scrape the bottom yesterday but I'm still not in the money.
    From Dec 22nd:
    Originally posted by bitteeinbit

    No, I got out of both COS and TGL. Took a loss on TGL (which would have been a sizable gain) and took a slight gain on COS, which could have been much higher. I'm kicking myself now obviously... Good on you for holding through!

    Now:



    Not sure why I chickened out. I was looking at 2 year charts but freaked out when it barely dipped below my buy price. I knew the longterm upside was huge.. Oh well.
    Porsche 944S2 Cabrio

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