Official Short-term Investments Thread

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


How low do you see it going in these weeks while they are working through the issues at horizon? Or was that massive drop this morning directly related to the announcement and it could possibly build itself back up to around 37-38 until the plant is fixed?

I know i'm a noob but just play along

I think this latest sell-off was pretty knee jerk. I think it's a great time to accumulate more shares. I wouldn't buy your entire position now....but maybe 30-50% and then continue to accumulate over coming weeks as more news comes out and we get more direction from the overall market.

The way I see it, the CNRL lost over $3 billion for what will probably be a $300 million problem. You can see my calculations and my more detailed thoughts here http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade...-cnq-20120215/

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI


I think this latest sell-off was pretty knee jerk. I think it's a great time to accumulate more shares. I wouldn't buy your entire position now....but maybe 30-50% and then continue to accumulate over coming weeks as more news comes out and we get more direction from the overall market.

The way I see it, the CNRL lost over $3 billion for what will probably be a $300 million problem. You can see my calculations and my more detailed thoughts here http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade...-cnq-20120215/

Again, thanks a lot. I'm continuing to learn a hell of a lot from you in terms of evaluation. Keep the blog posts coming!!

[Feruk]

Anyone here follow Armistice Resources Corp (TSX.V: AZ)? They're a gold company preparing to go into full blow mining phase. They've deliniated their play, have pretty nice intercepts, and plan to mine 25,000 oz of gold this year. Estimating average earnings of $500/oz, that's $12.5MM on a market cap of $52.7MM. They're in Ontario. They've got a second field with decent results they're trying to prove up as well. Seems like a pretty good story with maybe the exception of the President/CEO on who there is little to no info. Thoughts? I haven't thrown in yet but am curious if anyone has shares or thoughts in/on this one.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[davidI]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
With Iran threatening to cut off oil, I am thinking about dropping into some oil stocks to catch the upswing to 150$ per barrel.

I am leaning towards Suncor, any opinions on what is the best bet?

I like CPG, SU, and COS, but feel they are fully priced right now. I'd look at picking up CNQ while it's oversold. Check out the blog post I linked to higher...

[Akumaz]

whats with the big sell off on CPG?

[cidley69]

Is anyone using VectorVest? If so would you recommend it?

If not, do you know of any similiar software?

[davidI]

Originally posted by Akumaz
whats with the big sell off on CPG?

Crescent Point is selling stock to raise money for a big PetroBakken buy-out. It's another indication that the stock is over-priced in my mind.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade...-cpg-20120217/

[Akumaz]

Originally posted by davidI


Crescent Point is selling stock to raise money for a big PetroBakken buy-out. It's another indication that the stock is over-priced in my mind.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade...-cpg-20120217/

Thanks! can you explain to me why it would be beneficial to buy share through wild stream? as i dont really understand. 1 share of wild stream is currently 9.7, and CPG is at 45.45. 1 share of WSX becomes 0.17 of a share of CPG. Making it worth roughly 7.73$
add 1.66 of the Newco share, that is still only 9.4. Does that mean the share is over valued? Sorry if this is a noob question as i am a very new at this.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[davidI]

Originally posted by Akumaz


Thanks! can you explain to me why it would be beneficial to buy share through wild stream? as i dont really understand. 1 share of wild stream is currently 9.7, and CPG is at 45.45. 1 share of WSX becomes 0.17 of a share of CPG. Making it worth roughly 7.73$
add 1.66 of the Newco share, that is still only 9.4. Does that mean the share is over valued? Sorry if this is a noob question as i am a very new at this.

You're also getting 0.2 purchase warrants on the NewCo. NewCo should have a NAV of $1.61 if I remember correctly, and I imagine it will start trading with a significant "management premium" given the success of Neil's team in the past.

[Akumaz]

oh, the 1.61 is the NAV and not initial trading value?
what does this 0.2 purchase warrant mean? lets say i was given 1000 shares of of Newco, i can purchase 200 shares at any given time before the expiration date, for the NAV of 1.61?

[davidI]

Copied from research:

It is expected that once trading, the Newco will have no debt, as the assumed warrant
exercise will generate $23.1 million, and a private placement of up to 14.375 million
units of Newco will be done at $1.61 per unit to employees of Newco (and their directors,
relatives, and business associates). Each unit will consist of 1 common share of Newco
and 1 share purchase warrant with an exercise price of $2.00 for a period of three years
from the date of issuance (leaving an approximate $3 million cash position if fully
subscribed).

So in essence, the "IPO" of the NewCo is being done at $1.61, and I expect a pop when it becomes trading.

The warrants will have an exercise price of $2 for 3 years. Given that Neil's last 4 companies have gained over 100% and sold in 2-3 years, there's a good likelihood that the NewCo will eventually be worth $3+, meaning that the warrants should hopefully add at least another $0.20 per share in value a couple years from now. The big thing I'm expecting is a 10-20% pop in the share price when it starts trading as the "management premium".

[KappaSigma]

Went to a session last week on M&A actovity for NG, and they said to expect some large foreign purchases for WC gas companies (reserves and porudction) over the next 1-2 years to secure energy reserves...

Interetsing to see the Encana deal today...

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Went to a session last week on M&A actovity for NG, and they said to expect some large foreign purchases for WC gas companies (reserves and porudction) over the next 1-2 years to secure energy reserves...

Interetsing to see the Encana deal today...

Mitsubishi may want to rename the play Evo-XXX

There should be some massive asian investment in NG. Right now they are just bottom fishing for properties.

[Manhattan]

What's the deal with PBN.TO? Wild price changes.

Is it safe to buy RIM now?

[davidI]

Originally posted by Manhattan
What's the deal with PBN.TO? Wild price changes.

Is it safe to buy RIM now?

CPG is buying PBN assets.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade...-cpg-20120217/

RIM? Why? Losers buy Losers.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Manhattan
What's the deal with PBN.TO? Wild price changes.

Is it safe to buy RIM now?

CPG is buying PBN assets.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade...-cpg-20120217/

RIM? Why? Losers buy Losers.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by davidI
Copied from research:

It is expected that once trading, the Newco will have no debt, as the assumed warrant
exercise will generate $23.1 million, and a private placement of up to 14.375 million
units of Newco will be done at $1.61 per unit to employees of Newco (and their directors,
relatives, and business associates). Each unit will consist of 1 common share of Newco
and 1 share purchase warrant with an exercise price of $2.00 for a period of three years
from the date of issuance (leaving an approximate $3 million cash position if fully
subscribed).

So in essence, the "IPO" of the NewCo is being done at $1.61, and I expect a pop when it becomes trading.

The warrants will have an exercise price of $2 for 3 years. Given that Neil's last 4 companies have gained over 100% and sold in 2-3 years, there's a good likelihood that the NewCo will eventually be worth $3+, meaning that the warrants should hopefully add at least another $0.20 per share in value a couple years from now. The big thing I'm expecting is a 10-20% pop in the share price when it starts trading as the "management premium".

I believe warrant exercise price is $1.61 as per quote from PR: "Each whole Newco Warrant will entitle the holder to acquire one common share of Newco at an exercise price equal to its defined net asset value of $1.61 per share at any time on or before the close of business on thirtieth (30th) day following the closing of the Arrangement

I've been wrong on Crescent Point many times, but I'm still steering clear of this one. I think they're overvalued, hate DRIP, and don't wanna own this future junior ("Newco") or CPG stock. Wild Stream was exciting due to their Shaunovan play (albeit I never owned it). Their Dodsland stuff is second rate and unexciting at best. They've got some land in the core, but they're mostly drilling the fringe and getting worse results than their peers. I see why this deal is amazing for CPG; take the good stuff and have the Newco prove up their Dodsland position before buying them out. I still think there is way better companies to own at cheaper metrics. Rumor is REL is press releasing something next week; way more interested in that one.

[davidI]

Shit, you're right. I read the analyst report too quickly. What I posted was about the subscription for the NewCo. I had thought the Warrants were for $1.61 and was surprised when I saw the $2. Thanks for catching that.

Even better if the Warrants are at $1.61. Neil's team have successfully flipped 4 companies now and I think it would be great to get in on the ground floor of this one.

I'll likely sell my CPG stock once the deal goes through.

REL is definitely of interest to me, but I haven't had the time to do the due diligence on it.