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Thread: Official Short-term Investments Thread

  1. #24721
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    Originally posted by themack89


    Every person and their dog see's those articles. And it's Goldman of all people leading the herd lmao; there is a portfolio experiment somewhere on the internet doing the exact opposite of their "recommendations" and "forecasts" which is turning out to be wildly successful.

    My philosophy is human's are notoriously bad at predicting things further than a day into the future (sometimes not even), which is why I just play my own esoteric odds and try to keep it simple. Simple meaning: oil is low'ish, I think it's a decent price to get long. So that is what I will do.

    (Not trying to be offensive just expressing my opinion)

    As for buying oil futures and futures options, gotta get a brokerage that offers commodities. I use Interactive Brokers because their commissions are dirt cheap and they have amazing options in terms of choosing which markets to trade and data streams, etc. Makes places like QuestTrade look like dog shit.

    P.S. For perspective purposes, US Oil production increases in the past few years amount to between 1% and 2% of global demand. And they are drilling like mad men. Oil has fallen ~30% from its peak in the last few weeks--I guarantee the US production numbers are not the only factor behind this price movement, and I guarantee its not 'new' information either haha.
    The drop IMO is just macroeconomic bullshit to be termed lightly hah.

    Saudi is playing games and the actual supply demand function of oil is really not as bad as what media is depicting. Media is playing hard ball on oil and pushing it down over nothing vs fundamentals. China economy slowing down, europe crisis/recesssion. It is the same story every year and then when oil is at $90 everyone will be growing so much and demand is exceeding supply and oil will hit 120 and then the reverse will happen.

    Since the start of september the media has been feeding negative oil stories to further the blow, from various nations reducing demand to economies slowing growth to saudis doing x and someone else doing x. It's just a bunch of garbage artificially holding oil low but once earnings and guidances come out over the next little while I foresee a recovery or at least some stability.

  2. #24722
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    Originally posted by themack89


    Every person and their dog see's those articles. And it's Goldman of all people leading the herd lmao; there is a portfolio experiment somewhere on the internet doing the exact opposite of their "recommendations" and "forecasts" which is turning out to be wildly successful.

    My philosophy is human's are notoriously bad at predicting things further than a day into the future (sometimes not even), which is why I just play my own esoteric odds and try to keep it simple. Simple meaning: oil is low'ish, I think it's a decent price to get long. So that is what I will do.

    (Not trying to be offensive just expressing my opinion)

    As for buying oil futures and futures options, gotta get a brokerage that offers commodities. I use Interactive Brokers because their commissions are dirt cheap and they have amazing options in terms of choosing which markets to trade and data streams, etc. Makes places like QuestTrade look like dog shit.

    P.S. For perspective purposes, US Oil production increases in the past few years amount to between 1% and 2% of global demand. And they are drilling like mad men. Oil has fallen ~30% from its peak in the last few weeks--I guarantee the US production numbers are not the only factor behind this price movement, and I guarantee its not 'new' information either haha.
    I'm glad I'm not the only one that thinks this way

  3. #24723
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    Originally posted by icky2unk


    [snip]

    Since the start of september the media has been feeding negative oil stories to further the blow, from various nations reducing demand to economies slowing growth to saudis doing x and someone else doing x. It's just a bunch of garbage artificially holding oil low but once earnings and guidances come out over the next little while I foresee a recovery or at least some stability.
    Agreed - most likely increase back to over $100 by spring 2015

  4. #24724
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    Baytex beats earnings and increase 2014 guidance.. down a buck 1.45

    So stupid lol. I understand WTI is down a buck today but still

  5. #24725
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    I'm in Baytex for 50 shares... bought today at $34.37. If it goes much lower i'll probably pick up some more.
    Tap, Rack, BANG!

  6. #24726
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    Originally posted by littledan
    I'm in Baytex for 50 shares... bought today at $34.37. If it goes much lower i'll probably pick up some more.
    Not a bad buy, I got 150 earlier in the week at 34.34, and picked up some at 42 in late september.

    Averaged at about 37 so not too concerned but still shocking on news today it went down.

  7. #24727
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    nm
    Last edited by e36bmw///; 03-05-2018 at 11:11 AM.

  8. #24728
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    Originally posted by e36bmw///


    I also use Interactive Brokers. The best brokerage i've ever used. I wish they offered registered accounts too.
    I asked them the other day... For Canadians and the TFSA they said they are working on it. Check back in a few months they said.
    On Sabbatical

  9. #24729
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    fcking Saudi just slaughted me today

  10. #24730
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    icky would you like to talk about it?

    I'm still waiting for $75 before I start longing stuff.
    On Sabbatical

  11. #24731
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    Originally posted by themack89
    icky would you like to talk about it?

    I'm still waiting for $75 before I start longing stuff.
    Nope haha just waiting for the games to stop.

  12. #24732
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    From a theoretical perspective, it's not logical to play a predatory pricing game... And this is under the assumption of infinite bankroll, which all players involved have... in a manner of speaking.

    This shit is pretty cool.
    On Sabbatical

  13. #24733
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    Looks like it might be another rough day for the energy sector today. Oil down to the upper 76s atm... how low will it go, now that is the question.

    Thinking about jumping in on SU soon here with the dip, maybe even a small position in LRE, I can't stomach putting much into plays like LRE, call me a pussy

    In terms of the overall market, I am betting it continues to go down, which is why I am sitting on ~70% cash atm. My old man likes to call it the triple waterfall effect in these down markets.

    Fuck do I ever wish I got in on CSU years ago, this stock has hardly been hit by any of this uncertainty recently, with a 920% 5 year return
    Last edited by -relk-; 11-04-2014 at 09:41 AM.

  14. #24734
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    Originally posted by -relk-
    Looks like it might be another rough day for the energy sector today. Oil down to the upper 76s atm... how low will it go, now that is the question.

    Thinking about jumping in on SU soon here with the dip, maybe even a small position in LRE, I can't stomach putting much into plays like LRE, call me a pussy

    In terms of the overall market, I am betting it continues to go down, which is why I am sitting on ~70% cash atm. My old man likes to call it the triple waterfall effect in these down markets.

    Fuck do I ever wish I got in on CSU years ago, this stock has hardly been hit by any of this uncertainty recently, with a 920% 5 year return
    That's what I gather, the news just keeps coming conveniently after a couple good days.

    Building cash and will make use of my TSFA next year to make a new position.

  15. #24735
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    my stop triggered yesterday on LRE. Boy am I glad I had that in place when I looked at the chart this morning. Perhaps its time to look at some options?

  16. #24736
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    Wow. Fuck this. BXE post record production, stock falls 15%.

    I'm getting real sick of seeing all my money go down the drain.

    God damn saudi arabia

  17. #24737
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    Originally posted by GotRice?
    my stop triggered yesterday on LRE. Boy am I glad I had that in place when I looked at the chart this morning. Perhaps its time to look at some options?
    Group buy on Pepto?

  18. #24738
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    Originally posted by BavarianBeast
    Wow. Fuck this. BXE post record production, stock falls 15%.

    I'm getting real sick of seeing all my money go down the drain.

    God damn saudi arabia
    BTE posted record production, increased 2014 guidance... down hard too.

    I thought the market was getting stable at $80 but then Saudi has to do this haha.

    I'm sitting on cash until 2015 I think.

    LRE looking like a crazy good gamble though...

  19. #24739
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    really wish i didnt throw $3k at oil long at 25x leverage when it was at $80

    oh well... at least i didnt put in a new position when it was at $78

    only thing im worried about now is my RRX call @ $8 for nov. 22nd

  20. #24740
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    Originally posted by ercchry
    *snip*

    only thing im worried about now is my RRX call @ $8 for nov. 22nd
    How many did you grab? I wish you the best of luck sir... I'm considering call on KO. Screw energy.

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