The drop IMO is just macroeconomic bullshit to be termed lightly hah.Originally posted by themack89
Every person and their dog see's those articles. And it's Goldman of all people leading the herd lmao; there is a portfolio experiment somewhere on the internet doing the exact opposite of their "recommendations" and "forecasts" which is turning out to be wildly successful.
My philosophy is human's are notoriously bad at predicting things further than a day into the future (sometimes not even), which is why I just play my own esoteric odds and try to keep it simple. Simple meaning: oil is low'ish, I think it's a decent price to get long. So that is what I will do.
(Not trying to be offensive just expressing my opinion)
As for buying oil futures and futures options, gotta get a brokerage that offers commodities. I use Interactive Brokers because their commissions are dirt cheap and they have amazing options in terms of choosing which markets to trade and data streams, etc. Makes places like QuestTrade look like dog shit.
P.S. For perspective purposes, US Oil production increases in the past few years amount to between 1% and 2% of global demand. And they are drilling like mad men. Oil has fallen ~30% from its peak in the last few weeks--I guarantee the US production numbers are not the only factor behind this price movement, and I guarantee its not 'new' information either haha.
Saudi is playing games and the actual supply demand function of oil is really not as bad as what media is depicting. Media is playing hard ball on oil and pushing it down over nothing vs fundamentals. China economy slowing down, europe crisis/recesssion. It is the same story every year and then when oil is at $90 everyone will be growing so much and demand is exceeding supply and oil will hit 120 and then the reverse will happen.
Since the start of september the media has been feeding negative oil stories to further the blow, from various nations reducing demand to economies slowing growth to saudis doing x and someone else doing x. It's just a bunch of garbage artificially holding oil low but once earnings and guidances come out over the next little while I foresee a recovery or at least some stability.