Western Canada Housing Market - Drop? [Archive] - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

EnRich

08-31-2006, 02:35 PM

good then maybe ppl like me can actually afford to go and buy a fucking house... These house prices are rediculas.... its as if I need to have a gf with a 2nd income to be able to afford a morgage... fuck these prices right now!!!

Super_Geo

08-31-2006, 02:54 PM

Ah sheit... a good buddy of mine just put his name next to a $380k mortgage @ age 25... :eek: A house crash would fuck him over supremely. But then again, I'm sure there's an economist that'll for every possible prediction out there...

djayz

08-31-2006, 03:02 PM

everyone shouldve known it was too good to last
prices arent just going to keep going up and up and anybody who bought in the last year isnt going to be able to turn their house around for a quick profit unless they do it now.

considering that a 2 bedroom house somewhere in the southwest went for 12 million dollars i really think everyone would have to be in the oil and gas field to afford any type of house in calgary if the housing market were to keep going up.

simple law... What goes up...must come down.

pinoyhero

08-31-2006, 03:03 PM

You're right there's always an economist or some other professional that's willing to step out and make a prediction. I can't are it happening but who knows.

googe

08-31-2006, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by djayz
everyone shouldve known it was too good to last
prices arent just going to keep going up and up and anybody who bought in the last year isnt going to be able to turn their house around for a quick profit unless they do it now.

considering that a 2 bedroom house somewhere in the southwest went for 12 million dollars i really think everyone would have to be in the oil and gas field to afford any type of house in calgary if the housing market were to keep going up.

simple law... What goes up...must come down.

tell that to vancouver. houses in the core are over a million, a 2 bedroom apartment doesnt exist downtown for under half a million. 300 gets you a bachelor pad studio with no rooms.

and they dont even have oil...

they went up, stagnated, then went up some more.

toyboy88

08-31-2006, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by googe

tell that to vancouver. houses in the core are over a million, a 2 bedroom apartment doesnt exist downtown for under half a million. 300 gets you a bachelor pad studio with no rooms.

and they dont even have oil...

they went up, stagnated, then went up some more.

:werd: ...they have the ocean and the beach tho :hitit: haha

is300izo

08-31-2006, 03:48 PM

I honestly dont think that we are susceptable to the same outcome as the USA especially here in Calgary where we have more or less created our own little market. I believe that the oil and gas prices will have a direct correlation with the real estate market in Alberta wich will offset any downfalls in the overall Canadian market. But who knows, I cannot tell the future.

a1jatt

08-31-2006, 06:36 PM

This was a bubble not boom. Bubble must blast..sooner or later.

A couple more articles like one above can poke it. Buyer panicked and pumped the price which was fueled by propeganda of real estate agents and builders. Now it is time for sellers to panic.

you are absoluetly right...what goes up, comes down (with same speed ?

Tik-Tok

08-31-2006, 06:42 PM

When they're talking about a "drop in prices" they aren't talking about a big one, maybe you'll only see 95% of what you paid for, but as the city keeps getting bigger, that price will just keep going up, only at a more reasonable rate. So it might take 3-4 years to get what you would have gotten 3 months ago.

Anyone who believes the prices are going to drop back to affordability is delusional, we're a growing city, with LOTS of oil. Where do you think the US is going to start spending all their dough once they back out of Iraq?

Aleks

08-31-2006, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by Tik-Tok

Anyone who believes the prices are going to drop back to affordability is delusional, we're a growing city, with LOTS of oil. Where do you think the US is going to start spending all their dough once they back out of Iraq?

:thumbsup:

djayz

08-31-2006, 08:49 PM

only thing we can do is wait and see

like i said not everyone can afford a house at todays price...once it goes higher no body will be able to afford a house and thats when prices come down.

i know so many people that are just renting now because they dont want to buy a house that has nothing in it for more than 400k. These same people all have the money to buy a home but know value when they see it.

A house like mine i wouldnt pay more than 300grand for it however a house smaller than ours no basement went for 450k...these prices arent right and wont be.

I say end of this year prices will head down when people realize that buying a home when its at its peak price is stupid.

Altezza

08-31-2006, 10:21 PM

sputnik

09-01-2006, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by Altezza

Ever been to Houston, TX? Probably not...

Exactly.

For $400,000 in Houston you get a 4000 sq ft house with marble floors and hardwood cabinets and woodwork... all on a 75ft lot with an inground pool and a view of a ravine.

Super_Geo

09-01-2006, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by Altezza

Ever been to Houston, TX? Probably not...

Texas' oil boom is long over. Their rates of production are dropping annually. (Thank you peak oil... :( )

Originally posted by sputnik

Exactly.

For $400,000 in Houston you get a 4000 sq ft house with marble floors and hardwood cabinets and woodwork... all on a 75ft lot with an inground pool and a view of a ravine.

It'll be like that in Alberta after natural gas/oil sands peaks... though we are sittin gon top of a ridiculous amount of sand...

SAGD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_assisted_gravity_drainage) FTW!! :thumbsup:

sputnik

09-01-2006, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by Super_Geo

It'll be like that in Alberta after natural gas/oil sands peaks... though we are sittin gon top of a ridiculous amount of sand...

SAGD (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_assisted_gravity_drainage) FTW!! :thumbsup:

Why would houses get cheaper?

Super_Geo

09-01-2006, 08:28 AM

After the gas and the sands peak (which is really far down the horizon)? As production declines fewer jobs are needed.

DoubleLP

09-01-2006, 08:52 AM

With all these articles coming out now saying that "the market is going to fall" and that "prices are going to drop", people are going to panic and put there house on the market along with many other people creating a flood in the market and then there will be way too many houses on the market causing the prices to drop substantially.

I am just going to sit and wait in my rented apartment for that to happen so that I can grab a house at a very affordable price. :thumbsup:

whodiman

09-01-2006, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by DoubleLP
With all these articles coming out now saying that "the market is going to fall" and that "prices are going to drop", people are going to panic and put there house on the market along with many other people creating a flood in the market and then there will be way too many houses on the market causing the prices to drop substantially.

I am just going to sit and wait in my rented apartment for that to happen so that I can grab a house at a very affordable price. :thumbsup:

Your theory makes sense. However, I have heard this same plan from many people. I wonder, if enough people plan to buy when the houses fall whether the houses will really fall that much...or if they fall how long they will stay at a low price.

DoubleLP

09-01-2006, 10:10 AM

That is hard to tell at all. But if it happens then I shall be on that bandwagon.

I remember back in the 80's when oil dropped out big time and the housing prices dropped just as quick that there were people heading to the bank and dropping the keys off to their houses because the amount the owed on the house was much higher then what it was worth.

I do not think that will happen again, but the prices do have to come down sometime. Wit the housing prices up, the vacancy rate drops because more people are moving into apartments because they can not afford to buy a house. If the housing prices drop, vacanct rate increases, rent prices drop, everyone benefits! :)

Here is hoping! :D

max_boost

09-01-2006, 02:20 PM

Prices fall but will interest rates rise?
Paying higher interest on a lower principal is the same as paying lower interest on a higher principal. You can get a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for under prime which should ride out any down turn in the economy.

If you have a good job, and are valuable to your company, what do you have to worry about?

I can understand if you have a small down payment but there are people I know who have more than 25% and are still holding out. :nut: :dunno:

Canmorite

09-01-2006, 03:27 PM

A pullback, sure. A drop in prices, like the 80's? Unlikely. The correlation between oil prices and housing in Alberta, is greatly linked, and because of the recent boom in oil up to ~80, that's what caused it.

They will pullback to a more sustainable level, then keep rising.

Tik-Tok

09-01-2006, 07:00 PM

What some of you seem to be forgetting is the new introduction of 35 year mortgages to the scene, which will allow a lot more people to afford the higher prices, keeping the prices high.

I am willing to bet my house that pending some drastic war/natural disaster, we'll never see housing in calgary @ 250,000 average/per again in the next 20 years.

Maxt

09-01-2006, 07:24 PM

I have been watching 5 properties with interest, in and around Calgary. A few are properties that sold at the peak, but the deals have fallen through, some because the buyers could not arrange financing.
I think now is becoming the buyers time, one property has fallen from 625k to 500k in the last month, it originally sold in 2 days. The others dropped 9-12K just into august and are down now 20-25k as we cross into September, on properties in the 250k range..Thats a 10% drop in 30 days. A few of the banks mentioned this week the market is taking a correction back to more reasonable levels. How long to wait this new trend out though is the question..

robpark

09-01-2006, 07:31 PM

We're starting to see price reductions on a regular basis now. People are becoming motivated to sell... It will probably stabilize a little but I would put money on having a strong and busy Fall...

Conditions in the US will not hit Canada hard... The problem in the states is that a lot of people took loans out against their houses based on the "bubble" values of their homes... That does not happen so much up here in Canada. That said, because execs in Houston can't sell their homes for as much in the states, they won't have as much to spend on a house in a stronger Calgary market. I think that is where you will notice the conditions in the US economy affecting ours.

Canmorite

09-01-2006, 08:52 PM

Winter will be slow, but just wait for next spring, when people want to move.

$10K a month increases will become a reality again.

Toma

09-02-2006, 02:49 PM

July was down 2% over June, but that is a normal part of the cycle (summer).

August was back up 2% over July, and prices are at all time highs again. Stuff is taking longer to sell though, averaging (depending on area) 9 - 18 days.

I think we will see increases till mid next year

I think the slower market is largely that sellers are finally asking what their housess are worth (or more) given the large homeless and buying population Calgary has. So, you are not finding $220,000 houses that sell for $280k, instead, the price is $300k and people are waiting to get a good $$$

I missed a whopper of a deal 2 doors down from me. The idiots listed for $250k a couple weeks ago and sold in 3 hours in a market taking 11 days doh!! Coulda flipped it for $300k today.

Personally, I am sellign one now, and will sell the other 2 in the February- April areas

silbergrau330

09-02-2006, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by googe

tell that to vancouver. houses in the core are over a million, a 2 bedroom apartment doesnt exist downtown for under half a million. 300 gets you a bachelor pad studio with no rooms.

and they dont even have oil...

they went up, stagnated, then went up some more.

Vancouver is also suffering from stagnant growth as far as housing is concerned. The city is surrouned on all sides by either water or other cities (North Vancouver, Surrey, etc.), hence $$$$$$ for homes.