New market cycle? Dow touches all time high....

[Toma]

Briefly this morning, the Dow surpassed its all time high from pre 911....

Could be great news :thumbsup:

[liquid1010]

It could be; but the market right now is really wierd. Short-Term rates are higher that long-term rates, and this usually signals a recession.

I honestly think a lot of people don't know what to expect right now. Oil has taken a beating, as has NG, yet financials are doing really well.

I for one am confused right now :D

[99atlantic]

Originally posted by liquid1010
It could be; but the market right now is really wierd. Short-Term rates are higher that long-term rates, and this usually signals a recession.

I honestly think a lot of people don't know what to expect right now. Oil has taken a beating, as has NG, yet financials are doing really well.

I for one am confused right now :D

Youre' not the only 1; it's a lot easier to make long-term picks when the yield curve isn't inverted.

Oh well, most of our positions are hedged and we're 60/40 long, so I'm worried...let it do whatever it does :D

[Canmorite]

DOW is doing well, but expect short-term profit taking at all time highs.

[rc2002]

Wall street is celebrating low oil prices, TSX is crying over them...

It was a nice try by OPEC cutting production (those greedy bastards) - doesn't seem to have tricked the investors any though.

[liquid1010]

99Atlantic... you mentioned "we are 60/40" long? Do you work in an Asset Management firm?

If you do, any tips? I'm trying to get into that field... but it's tough.

[99atlantic]

Originally posted by liquid1010
99Atlantic... you mentioned "we are 60/40" long? Do you work in an Asset Management firm?

If you do, any tips? I'm trying to get into that field... but it's tough.

i manage a hedge fund here

best advice if you don't know anybody in the industry who can bring you in - focus on math and finance in school - you don't have to a math brain, even a basic understanding and knowledge of stuff like monte carlo in VAR analysis will put leagues ahead of other people; then slowly work towards your CFA (imho, it's almost getting to the point where you need a CFA just to get looked at at most firms).....if howver you are a super math brain, then focus in on option modelling (my recommendation - electricity swing options, that's *very* hot in Calgary now with Enmax, Transalta, etc.. etc...)

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by 99atlantic


i manage a hedge fund here

best advice if you don't know anybody in the industry who can bring you in - focus on math and finance in school - you don't have to a math brain, even a basic understanding and knowledge of stuff like monte carlo in VAR analysis will put leagues ahead of other people; then slowly work towards your CFA (imho, it's almost getting to the point where you need a CFA just to get looked at at most firms).....if howver you are a super math brain, then focus in on option modelling (my recommendation - electricity swing options, that's *very* hot in Calgary now with Enmax, Transalta, etc.. etc...)


I'm working on my CFA right now, and have my L1 exam in Dec. The problem is, I want to get my foot in the door and I'm by no means a "Math" brain. It's a frustrating time for sure.

[99atlantic]

Originally posted by liquid1010



I'm working on my CFA right now, and have my L1 exam in Dec. The problem is, I want to get my foot in the door and I'm by no means a "Math" brain. It's a frustrating time for sure.

Just keep plowing away, everything works out in the end - I worked at a manged futures investment firm for 3yrs as a futures analyst, then it went belly-up after the Refco scandle - I jumped ship to another company whose fund was starting to fail due to market timing allegations and whatnot with mutual funds and found a way to ressurrect it. Everything happens when it's meant too, just work hard and it will line up for you

[liquid1010]

Thanks for boost 99, much appreciated.

[99atlantic]

that'll be $650.00 for the words of encouragment....don't worry, I cut my hourly rate down with a Beyonder's discount ;)

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:D

[fast&dangr]

Originally posted by 99atlantic


Youre' not the only 1; it's a lot easier to make long-term picks when the yield curve isn't inverted.

Oh well, most of our positions are hedged and we're 60/40 long, so I'm worried...let it do whatever it does :D

The yield curve is old news, its inverted a few times since this spring but thanks for noticing... glad my money is far away from you!

:rolleyes:

[99atlantic]

Originally posted by fast&dangr


The yield curve is old news, its inverted a few times since this spring but thanks for noticing... glad my money is far away from you!

:rolleyes:

Careful, you'll make me cry :drama:

[Toma]

My feeling is of course that the markets are by far more psychology and pure manipulation then they are technical or fundamental....

Had a buddy that was a "promoter" for 10+ years. He always made off like a bandit, and had a good reputation... but it was hype, BS, and no substance that got the job done. He is my age, retired, and off travelling the world. Hasn't had a job in 5 years, hasn't had a job that he could not do out of his living room with a headset since he was 21 lol.

I tend to go with analysts and books written by ones who take psychology and manipulation into account.

The dow will hit 20,000 to 30,000 in the next 3 years. Oil is done, gas was done months ago, metals are done, the US dollar is done...housing is done.... the money will start to flow back into the equity markets.

[99atlantic]

Originally posted by Toma
My feeling is of course that the markets are by far more psychology and pure manipulation then they are technical or fundamental....

Had a buddy that was a "promoter" for 10+ years. He always made off like a bandit, and had a good reputation... but it was hype, BS, and no substance that got the job done. He is my age, retired, and off travelling the world. Hasn't had a job in 5 years, hasn't had a job that he could not do out of his living room with a headset since he was 21 lol.

I tend to go with analysts and books written by ones who take psychology and manipulation into account.

The dow will hit 20,000 to 30,000 in the next 3 years. Oil is done, gas was done months ago, metals are done, the US dollar is done...housing is done.... the money will start to flow back into the equity markets.

Don't you think you're being a little over-optimistic predicting it will double to triple over hte next 3yrs alone?

[liquid1010]

Toma.... don't you think you're somewhat oversimplifying things? Just slightly ;)

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Toma
The dow will hit 20,000 to 30,000 in the next 3 years. Oil is done, gas was done months ago, metals are done, the US dollar is done...housing is done.... the money will start to flow back into the equity markets.

How do you assume that the Dow will skyrocket while commodities, currency and real estate struggle?

[liquid1010]

LOL... my thoughts exactly.