The Future of Oil Prices

[andres_mt]

Hey,

Was talking about this today. Some late events in August have caused oil prices to drop to around $60 a barrel, it's nice for all of us at the pumps for $0.80-$0.90 a Litre and it seems that we are going to be enjoying this all to well before our consumption rate increases at even a greater rate that its at now resulting maybe in a very high inflation of crude oil we might not be use to.

But considering the rate we're going at excluding the possibility of a major natural disaster, further N.Korea tensions, etc. My question is where do you guys see the price of oil a couple years from now?? (i.e. 2-3 yrs). Some guys I talked to about this about, all had different opinions.

Discuss.


Also,

Oil prices began to decrease at the end of the summer of 2006, closing below $66/barrel on September 11.[2] The national average gas price dropped to $2.70/gallon in early September, down $0.11 from the previous week. Some cities were seeing average prices below $2.40/gallon.[3]

As of September, prices continue to fall, and the average cost of gasoline per gallon (nationwide) is below $2.50. On September 19th, crude oil fell $2.14 to a 6-month low of $61.66. The recent significant fall in the price of crude oil has led some to speculate that price of gasoline may fall to as low as $1.15/gallon[4] By October 3, the price closed at $58.68, its lowest close since mid-February. [5] Reasons for the recent price decreases have included easing tensions with Iran, ample supply and the lack of hurricane activity in oil-producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico.

After news of North Korea's successful nuclear test on October 9, 2006, oil prices rose past $60 a barrel, but fell back the next day. Also, for several days in early October, oil prices bounced around the $60 mark on possible news that some OPEC countries would cut oil production by 1,000,000 barrels a day. OPEC had not cut its production since December 2004. However, the oil market has lately seemed to shrug that news off, especially considering that Saudi Arabia said that no such agreement exists (to cut production).

On October 11th, oil prices fell below $58 for the first time since February.

-taken from Wikipedia

[djayz]

could go up or down it all depends on how we use it for the next 2-3 years

think of how fast it went up and look at how fast it came down almost $20 dollars. Its too unpredictable specially since the whole world is pretty much relying on it. Any one major event could drastically change the price of it.

[andres_mt]

I think the biggest problem the world sees is the drastic development of China happening right now. 5-10 years from now I don't think sustaining that kind of demand from the East would be possible.

[bigboom]

personally i think we could see $30 oil again but i think one of the biggest factors is what OPEC decides to do...

[kaput]

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[rc2002]

Oil prices are somewhat related to prices at the pump but a lot of times they're still independent of each other. One could be going up while the other goes down.

I personally hope oil dives. The stress of this city growing at this rate is ridiculous. High house prices and traffic and a strained health care system is just brutal. I'm semi-glad that I'm not a homeowner whose property taxes have skyrocketed because of this boom.

[Xtrema]

We'll run out of oil like we predicted we'll run out of coal in the 19th century.

Something better will come along as more discoveries made on energies and replaces oil before it runs out.

[Tha VZA]

Originally posted by Xtrema
We'll run out of oil like we predicted we'll run out of coal in the 19th century.

Something better will come along as more discoveries made on energies and replaces oil before it runs out.

umm...we still have coal...even in AB

oil and gas will always go up and down...it'll regain strength or at least be stable one opec figures their shit out and it starts getting colder (gas price)

and once the US bombs the shat out of every middle eastern country we will have a lot in AB to sell off

ciao

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Tha VZA


umm...we still have coal...even in AB


Exactly. The "we're running out" is just scare tactic to raise the price. Like in the 70's they predicted we'll run out of oil by 1996. But in the end, another 1000 billion barrels are discovered and we use less than predicted.

[DoubleLP]

Oil will continually fluctuate.....and we might even see a dive in the prices like in the 80's. Doubtful that will happen again...but you just never know.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by DoubleLP
Oil will continually fluctuate.....and we might even see a dive in the prices like in the 80's. Doubtful that will happen again...but you just never know.

It's quite easy.

All they have to do is run on ethanol.

1) Brazil has no dependence as goverment mandate all vehicles to run on ethanol

2) Honda already has process to generate ethanol from bio wastes.

3) E85 is gaining steam in the mid west states.

Advancement in solar energy and hybrid will continue to reduce use of fossil fuel. And the minute someone figure out how nuclear fission works, nobody will need oil and natural gas and Alberta is screwed.

[Aleks]

No one can predict it accuratelly. My guess is $40-75 range over the next year.

[sputnik]

I would be willing to bet that oil hits $80 before it hits $40.

[mekeni]

Originally posted by sputnik
I would be willing to bet that oil hits $80 before it hits $40.


:werd:

It will hit $100 before it hits $40

[Billet]

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Calgary Herald > News> Calgary Business


Oil price forecast to fall to $45 a barrel by 2010


Federal forecast sees oilsands output soaring


Oil prices, which hit a 14-month low of less than $60 US a barrel this week, will sink a lot lower over the next four years, according to new Canadian government projections which see prices falling to $45 US a barrel by the end of the decade.

[Billet]

Originally posted by Xtrema


It's quite easy.

All they have to do is run on ethanol.

1) Brazil has no dependence as goverment mandate all vehicles to run on ethanol

2) Honda already has process to generate ethanol from bio wastes.

3) E85 is gaining steam in the mid west states.

Advancement in solar energy and hybrid will continue to reduce use of fossil fuel. And the minute someone figure out how nuclear fission works, nobody will need oil and natural gas and Alberta is screwed.

nice quote.

[Rav4Guy]

OPEC will not cut productions enough to drive up prices to $70 again.... and will see oil at $40/barrel in the next decade. Production from the oil sands will be cut down and companies will pull halt new projects as production costs outweigh their initial feasability projections.

[Evo prec]

I totally agree with RAV4GUY the output of oil sands cannot soar because of the one main fact that the cost to maintain the oil sands is to much money. the cost for the older projects in the oil sands are around $50 a barrel and just think how much the new projects will be. If you acutally look at most companies that invested large amounts of money in the oil sands have put a stop to most of there large projects mainly because the Cost is way to high. So lets hope oil prices stay high so the rest of the city will keep on making money.

[Crymson]

Opec will not let oil get to 30$ a bbl again, and oilsands aren't making much money at 30$, if any with the recent skyrocking costs of doing business. I remember when that ball first got really rolling that 18$ was the breakeven point. It's probably closer to 30 now.

Chinese demand is not anything new or unexpected, their sitting on an easily extrapolatable curve of energy consumption has mostly been predicted.

If anything, the whole DPRK thing is a calming effect on the price of oil, as it's forced China to kind of distance themselves from N.Korea whereas before, it was kind of up in the air as to where they'd stand. Now it's pretty clear that no one is backing them up.

[msommers]

Originally posted by Xtrema


Exactly. The "we're running out" is just scare tactic to raise the price. Like in the 70's they predicted we'll run out of oil by 1996. But in the end, another 1000 billion barrels are discovered and we use less than predicted.

Funny that you mentioned this, Pengrowth is looking at expanding their coal research and using it as a primary source for energy sometime in the near future.

I have to agree with a lot of people above in that, the world is very dependent on oil, therefore any major worldwide event alters prices. It's hard to gauge but realistically, I agree that it will hit $100/barrel before it sinks down to $40.

[kaput]

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[Rav4Guy]

Originally posted by Crymson
Opec will not let oil get to 30$ a bbl again, and oilsands aren't making much money at 30$, if any with the recent skyrocking costs of doing business. I remember when that ball first got really rolling that 18$ was the breakeven point. It's probably closer to 30 now.

Chinese demand is not anything new or unexpected, their sitting on an easily extrapolatable curve of energy consumption has mostly been predicted.

If anything, the whole DPRK thing is a calming effect on the price of oil, as it's forced China to kind of distance themselves from N.Korea whereas before, it was kind of up in the air as to where they'd stand. Now it's pretty clear that no one is backing them up.

OPEC and the "Oil Sands" aren't really connected to each other. OPEC isn't a company that sells/buys oil to countries, it's just a "forum" where oil producing countries talk about oil and it's future. OPEC will let oil see low prices and there's not much that the "Oil Sands" can do.

It's kind of funny... right when the "oil sands" came into play... terrorists and whomever started to raid oil factories/wells in the middle east... driving UP oil prices. This made it completely feasable for companies to explore and extract oil from the "oil sands". Look at it now... anyone heard of a terrorist raiding/blowing up a middle east oil well?

[89coupe]

See the chart, use a little common sense ;)

Who's the dummy who mentioned the 80's...LOL

Go here http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1869.gif

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by msommers
Funny that you mentioned this, Pengrowth is looking at expanding their coal research and using it as a primary source for energy sometime in the near future.


It's no research. Coal-Liquid Fuel is a proven form of synthetic diesel production method. The cost rival our tar sand.

CLF already count for 30% of fuel usage in South Africa. China/Australia has also starting to prdouce CLF for their home market. (As seen in those Shell ads).

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2005/08/underground-coal-gasification-coal-to.html

That's why I think a oil down cycle is about to come. High oil prices will make all these alternative become cost effective. Sure it'll peak again but it'll bottom out first.

There's a reason why a lot of energy companies are liquifing their oil assest and invest it else where.

[andres_mt]

Haven't been in the news lately but what's the latest on N.Korea and do you think any of that has affected oil prices recently?

[msommers]

Xtreme thanks for the heads up, I'll be sure to purchase some stocks!

North Korea doesn't have mass quantities of oil, so if there is a change,it will be minimal.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by andres_mt
Haven't been in the news lately but what's the latest on N.Korea and do you think any of that has affected oil prices recently?

No. Kim apologize to China for testing nuke. So no imminent thread. Oil is hovering around $58. As a sign of weakness to come, OPEC has agreed to cut production, 1st in 2 years, to stablize the drop.

We are only 2 weeks away form a lame duck Bush administration that many has predicted. Weak economy output of US also has relaxed energy demand. With a warm winter predicted, I don't think energy is a safe place to place your money for the immediate future.

I could be wrong, I predicted the same bust last year then Katrina hit and throw it upside down.