Oil <$53/bbl....

[Super_Geo]

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2797413

Oil dipping below $53? What are your thoughts... effects on the industry? Housing prices in Calgary this year?

At first I was really happy to see $80/bbl oil because I thought that would drive people to develop renewable energy, when really it just spurred a lot more coal power plants (the dirtiest way of getting energy).

Fuck, you can't win either way. Maybe housing prices will be cheaper though, it might be pretty slow in the field this year...

[B17a]

The sky is falling! Sell your homes now, liquidate your assets and put them into T-bills!:eek:

[Canmorite]

Just under 51 now. 50 is going to be a huge mental support area.

Some fund is still unloading their positions, as well as aggressive short selling.

[benyl]

yeah, I don't think housing is going to dip that quickly.

You will only see an effect when project start getting cancelled. Until then, business as usual.

[Rav4Guy]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Just under 51 now. 50 is going to be a huge mental support area.

Some fund is still unloading their positions, as well as aggressive short selling.
you mean just under 52. current price at 51.95. I'm still thinking $45 oil.

[westbeach]

I know me working the oilfield its sure killing us.. usually this time of year we are just busier then heck but this year its hard to find work.. I am a frac'er if anyone wants to know outta Medicine hat. But yeah.. Hopefully it picks up here soon..

[rc2002]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Just under 51 now. 50 is going to be a huge mental support area.

Some fund is still unloading their positions, as well as aggressive short selling.

:werd: A lot of fund managers are unloading oil from their portfolio's. That's not helping oil prices.


This great news. I'm crossing my fingers and hoping for a recession. I'd really like to see some speculators in Calgary's housing market get burned.

[B17a]

I feel sorry for you as a fraccer, you will be the first to feel any impacts if you aren't already. Guys like you (don't take that personally) were the guys who benefitted the most last year as service firms were charging whatever they wanted, therefore the opposite of that will happen if prices keep sliding.

[benyl]

Originally posted by B17a
I feel sorry for you as a fraccer, you will be the first to feel any impacts if you aren't already. Guys like you (don't take that personally) were the guys who benefitted the most last year as service firms were charging whatever they wanted, therefore the opposite of that will happen if prices keep sliding.

That being said, we might get some decent service around here. Some of these guys will have to find jobs and maybe the labour shortage will have some relief.

[B17a]

Fully agree and I hope so.

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by benyl
yeah, I don't think housing is going to dip that quickly.

You will only see an effect when project start getting cancelled. Until then, business as usual.

Are you talking about housing projects getting cancelled or oil/gas projects? Cause I know a shitload of gas projects at my company have been getting cancelled...

[redline]

It will effect housing in Calgary... What do you think is funding all these big purchases?

Stock options.... take a look at the TSE oil and gas index :thumbsdow

It will not only be the field guys feeling it!

There should be lots of BMWs coming up for sale by summer...

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Rav4Guy

you mean just under 52. current price at 51.95. I'm still thinking $45 oil.

No, I meant under 51. Low of the day was 50.53.

[Rav4Guy]

low 51.39 for today according to my quote system. Last time is was below 51.00 was on 5/27/05.


Hopefully prices in calgary will drop a bit and services will improve. With a drop in wages/bonuses/jobs for people, it'll have a significance affect on retail sales and services as people will spend less. For those people that spend money before the payroll hits thier bank account... well.. start saving up. Lay offs will happen as oil dips lower.

[Toma]

Nymex Lite Sweet Oil is what hit 50.55, closed at 51.21, down $1.78 for the day.

Hope was that Saudi would cut production, but they dodn't seem to care....

I've been in tech and asia markets for almost a year.

Oil is more psychological in Alberta since 80% of our revenue is from natural gas.... so you shoulda been MORE worried when gas fell from $13 to $7 lol

I hope we get hit too... I need more toys ;)

[Toma]

Oh, and on another board.. someone posted Alberta rig counts are down 25% over this time last year, and oil and gas reserves are way up due to the no existant winter (more or less) lol

Housing wont get hit for a while. There is always a lag effect, and looking around, there are "Help Wanted" signs EVERYWHERE still, house inventory is down....

I still think they will be flat till spring, have a slight surge, then fall about 10% for the year.... but that's just a guess. I think further out... say 4-5 years where the real slaughter will happen.

[bigboom]

Originally posted by Toma
Oh, and on another board.. someone posted Alberta rig counts are down 25% over this time last year, and oil and gas reserves are way up due to the no existant winter (more or less) lol

Housing wont get hit for a while. There is always a lag effect, and looking around, there are &quot;Help Wanted&quot; signs EVERYWHERE still, house inventory is down....

I still think they will be flat till spring, have a slight surge, then fall about 10% for the year.... but that's just a guess. I think further out... say 4-5 years where the real slaughter will happen.

Just before christmas rig activty was down at least 30-40% over 2005 and rigs were being laid down weekly. this has been a long time coming especially for service companies who have been gouging E&P companies with their exorbitant rates.

the biggest factor right now is all the money in capital that will not get spent this year, and even from the majors alone that is close to $5BN in capital that will not get spent due to capital cuts, i dont know the effects from the jr's cuts yet but regardless thats a lot of money not being distributed this year.

and like mentioned people should be worried about gas prices and praying for some REALLY cold weather.

[89coupe]

The Bank of Canada seems to have a brighter view.

http://money.canoe.ca/News/Sectors/BanksFinance/2007/01/16/3388744-cp.html

[acura_el]

i dont understand why the dip in crude oil prices hasn't translated into a decline at the pumps :dunno:

[kaput]

.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by acura_el
i dont understand why the dip in crude oil prices hasn't translated into a decline at the pumps :dunno:

It has come off a bit, but I doubt it will go back to how low it was anytime soon.

[Toma]

Originally posted by kaput
Yeah funny how crude prices dropped from $80 to $50 but pump prices have barely changed.

WHAT!!?!?!?! They went from $1.10 to $0.79, I dunno if that is "barely" lol.

[pinoyhero]

Originally posted by benyl
yeah, I don't think housing is going to dip that quickly.

You will only see an effect when project start getting cancelled. Until then, business as usual.

What about the encac jobs cust as a sign of more to come and less spending in calgary ?

[Whitetiger]

Originally posted by redline
It will effect housing in Calgary... What do you think is funding all these big purchases?

Stock options.... take a look at the TSE oil and gas index :thumbsdow

It will not only be the field guys feeling it!

There should be lots of BMWs coming up for sale by summer...

I think more like Ford f-350's crew-cab with 6" lifts... the corporate oil guys who buy beamers aren't really the actual workers busting their chops.

I think a lot of 4 by 4 field lease back trucks might sell for below market value. :thumbsup:

[westbeach]

I just got back from the shop just now being a frac'er and i guess up north there is work but when that runs out and spring breakup comes.. oh lord. I don't know.. I am keeping my profile really slim right now with this. Lets all hope this comes back around and we can go back to work with us frac'ers. I talked to a guy from BJ & Trican well service tonight and they told me that times are EXTREAMLY slow. I just hope i don't see no pink piece of paper in my mailbox one day..

[Whitetiger]

You know the boys from Endless Tubing?

[Lexxan]

It's funny how you all think it's about oil while most wells drilled in Alberta are for natural gas.

[Altezza]

Seasonally speaking, February delivery prices for oil and natural gas are typically amongst the lowest of the year. At this point, only a major freeze on the American East Coast, or heightened political tensions will move the price north by a substantial amount. Otherwise, we'll have to wait for the summer driving/cooling season.

[Xtrema]

Meh, much needed adjustment anyway.

Project started will take a few years to finish up. So the cash flow downward should be the same for the next couple years. So housing prices shouldn't be affected but don't expect growth any more.

[EnRich]

I hope oil prices take a bigger hit still. I'm extremly frustrated with this housing market, and lets all agree now, the reason those houses doubled in price over the last year was because of oil. Really pisses me off.

[USED1]

I can tell you one of the major reasons for the low ng price is due to the lower temperatures out east, hence storage is quite full. Another that drilling, etc. is down is to force the cost of labour in this province south.

[89coupe]

Originally posted by Lexxan
It's funny how you all think it's about oil while most wells drilled in Alberta are for natural gas.

LOL, well that was the dumbest comment I have heard lately...haha.

[benyl]

Originally posted by USED1
I can tell you one of the major reasons for the low ng price is due to the lower temperatures out east, hence storage is quite full. Another that drilling, etc. is down is to force the cost of labour in this province south.

You mean higher temperatures out east, right?

[bigboom]

Originally posted by USED1
I can tell you one of the major reasons for the low ng price is due to the lower temperatures out east, hence storage is quite full. Another that drilling, etc. is down is to force the cost of labour in this province south.

i think oil started it...but peoples stupidity and expectations carried it to where it is now.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by EnRich
I hope oil prices take a bigger hit still. I'm extremly frustrated with this housing market, and lets all agree now, the reason those houses doubled in price over the last year was because of oil. Really pisses me off.

It's supply and demand.

Good economy brings in more people and people wants to upgrade and buy better shit. Can't avoid it.

A lot of it is real estate agents fault too. They are no better than people trying to sell PS3 for $2000 by exploiting the shortage.

House sell seems to slow now and to my surprise, price is keeping stable and not falling.

[Crymson]

52$ isn't bad. I would think that with lower oil prices, it takes the commodity speculators out of the picture somewhat. Hopefully this acts to stablize the oil price as the buyers for oil will be the consumers for oil, and not speculators.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by EnRich
I hope oil prices take a bigger hit still. I'm extremly frustrated with this housing market, and lets all agree now, the reason those houses doubled in price over the last year was because of oil. Really pisses me off.

You will start to see a downturn in the housing market once you see people that are forced to sell because they are unemployed or moving back "home".

Many people wish for cheaper houses, but forget that there is a price to be paid for cheaper homes.

[USED1]

Originally posted by benyl


You mean higher temperatures out east, right?

Ya, I meant to say lack of lower temperatures, sorry.

[Canmorite]

80's all over again?:nut:

[whodiman]

In case anyone is wondering the "actual" and not forecasted natural gas price for December will be about 25cents higher than November's.

[Canmorite]

50.15:clap:

EDIT: Broke 50 this afternoon!

[Toma]

Yep, when I saw the $49.90, I was happy...

BUT, being the tech stock junkie that I am, I am somewhat surprised everything was down today and mostly yesterday... tech, dow, asia, gold... interesting.

[Canmorite]

Yea true that. QQQQ has had a good run, and was mostly overbought with a lot of bearish divergence.

It's almost like the US markets saw the oil prices coming down, before it happened. Stocks do lead commodities ;)

[Toma]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Yea true that. QQQQ has had a good run, and was mostly overbought with a lot of bearish divergence.

It's almost like the US markets saw the oil prices coming down, before it happened. Stocks do lead commodities ;)
lol... even during an ice storm? ;)

[Xtrema]

Here we go, Schlumberger just got rid of a bunch of engineers. Services company always go first in a recession. Energy companies are next.

Now I really wish house market follow soon.

[rc2002]

Right after Schlumberger posted record Q4 profits too!

+1 for more job cuts.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Toma

lol... even during an ice storm? ;)

I wasn't talking natural disasters:D

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by Xtrema
Here we go, Schlumberger just got rid of a bunch of engineers. Services company always go first in a recession. Energy companies are next.

I'm pretty sure all the major producers in the energy sector are big enough that they will weather the 'storm,' which is almost an overstatement considering oil at $50 is still profitable, just not as much as it was at $80.

[Canmorite]

Breaking upwards this morning, looking for a short term reversal.

[nos_efx]

Back up to $53

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8MR49K06.htm

[sputnik]

$54.77 at the moment on NYMEX

[barbarian]

Around $55 today, and Suncor just had another fire after the markets closed.

[rc2002]

The price will come back down. It shot up because Bush made that announcement of storing 100k BPD. It shows that there'll be demand for oil but it'll take a while to build infrastructure to store it.
:dunno:

[rc2002]

Inventory day today! Crude and heating oil up around 700K each.

Oil is already coming back down. *fingers crossed for sub $50 oil*

[bigboom]

Originally posted by richardchan2002
Right after Schlumberger posted record Q4 profits too!

+1 for more job cuts.

fluor daniel is letting a bunch of people go too...

[Canmorite]

Heading lower once again...

[Super_Geo]

Looks like it'll be hovering in the 53-55 range for a bit... I'm predicting that it'll be back in the 60s soon.

[Canmorite]

Bouncing hard today.

[sputnik]

Almost $57 today

[redline]

58 today :clap: :clap:

[drew_goring]

Originally posted by redline
58 today :clap: :clap: :thumbsup:

[CiviccCaiz]

Im a Field geophysicist and things are looking really bad. Alot of the jobs were cancelled this year and most jobs are starting a little late, all the Oil exect are taking the lets watch and wait attitude and that is not helping.

I think the down turn is on its way.....Oil seems to be on a 8-10 year cycle and we are at the 10th year since the last bust.....We've just been through the biggest boom in a long time and everyone knows what happens after a BOOM!

I know alot of field company is feeling the downturn and feel sorry for those who did not save for this.

If you are directly involve in Oil and Gas ALWAY save for rainy days.

[Aleks]

Originally posted by CiviccCaiz
Im a Field geophysicist and things are looking really bad. Alot of the jobs were cancelled this year and most jobs are starting a little late, all the Oil exect are taking the lets watch and wait attitude and that is not helping.

I think the down turn is on its way.....Oil seems to be on a 8-10 year cycle and we are at the 10th year since the last bust.....We've just been through the biggest boom in a long time and everyone knows what happens after a BOOM!

I know alot of field company is feeling the downturn and feel sorry for those who did not save for this.

If you are directly involve in Oil and Gas ALWAY save for rainy days.

I have new wells this year in the double digits in my area alone in Q3/4 working my ass of to get everything ready...

:dunno:

[redline]

Originally posted by Aleks


I have new wells this year in the double digits in my area alone in Q3/4 working my ass of to get everything ready...

:dunno:

it depands on economics of the play, some areas will always be busy while other are not.

$70 oil make a lot of plays economic...