6000 SFH houses

[whodiman]

So as of this morning on CREB we are now at 5908 SFH listings. At this pace we will easily break 6000 by end of month. Any ideas when it will stop going up? Any estimates what we'll be at for the end of April?

How about prices? Keep in mind we are still in busy season and this is happening.

[liquid1010]

There are a ton of new multi-unit complexes being built.... and this is playing a huge role.

Who knows when it will end.

[The Cosworth]

12,000 total listings as of yesterday I was told

[SilverRex]

when price was on the rise listing was around or below 2000, a average market is at 5000 inventory. so at 12000. what do you think...

[barmanjay]

Originally posted by brendankharris
12,000 total listings as of yesterday I was told


http://www.creb.ca/

top right corner shows the current number of listings on mls

[The Cosworth]

Originally posted by barmanjay



http://www.creb.ca/

top right corner shows the current number of listings on mls
those are just SFH's I am talking total listings

TOTAL MLS* as of Feb 29 2008
Month End Inventory 10,652

so my 12,000 was a little high but that was the end of Feb. so it wouldn't surprise me if it was close to 12,000 now

source: http://www.creb.ca/public/hbuyer/hb-stats-residential.htm






edit: couple of other interesting facts



the left number is 2008, and the right is 2007

Sales 2,236 3,434 -34.89%

Average Sale Price 425,542 401,916 5.88%

Median Price 385,000 365,000 5.48%



so prices increased 5% from last year, while sales dropped 35%, I think we will know what the trend is by the stats released in march/april

[civic_rida]

On the news last night they said we might have another boom due to the east being in recession.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
On the news last night they said we might have another boom due to the east being in recession.

wait a sec, when you say boom do you mean the market will rise because the east is in a recession? how does that work? doesnt the east drag the west down if Canadian economy as a whole takes a nose dive?

[01RedDX]

.

[black_2.5RS]

Originally posted by 01RedDX


It means there is going to be another huge influx of people coming to look for work. They said 3 million people are going to make their way west over the next little while.

I heard the same thing. I believe it was a report by a company called Canada West. They defined "over the next little while" as 20+ yrs.

[HondaRice]

yeah theres a over supply of homes.
even calgary foreclosures are up 33% from the previous year

[SilverRex]

3 million people? 2 million in vancouver and 1 million in calgary? if over the span of 20 years. sure, that might make some sense. But 20 year could already be two cycles of boom and bust for the housing market.

[01RedDX]

.

[cdnsir]

Originally posted by brendankharris

so prices increased 5% from last year, while sales dropped 35%, I think we will know what the trend is by the stats released in march/april

That's a good sign that people who buys a place to live is still buying. Whereas, the more price-sensitive group (i.e. the flippers) are backing off from their buying spree which went on for the past 2 yrs.

[civic_rida]

I meant people leaving the east cause of a recession to move to the west to find jobs which increases demand and prices go up.
I really hope this doesnt happen, Calgary is way to busy already and prices are high enough.

[whodiman]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I meant people leaving the east cause of a recession to move to the west to find jobs which increases demand and prices go up.
I really hope this doesnt happen, Calgary is way to busy already and prices are high enough.

If this happens it could really be bad. The flood of people means companies don't have to pay bigger salaries as they know people will take whatever they can. In the meantime rent and housing prices go up. However, this is only IF. Hopefully not.

[Antonito]

Originally posted by whodiman


If this happens it could really be bad. The flood of people means companies don't have to pay bigger salaries as they know people will take whatever they can. In the meantime rent and housing prices go up. However, this is only IF. Hopefully not.

The two things aren't unrelated. Prices in Calgary skyrocketed because suddenly everyone had giant salaries. There is a cap for house pricing relative to the amount of money people have to spend.

That said, there is the "Vancouver syndrome", where people get all flighty about housing and will spend 70% of their net income on housing, which will make everyone else cry. Hopefully people here aren't that stupid, and really i think the recent slowdown is a sign of hope in that regard.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Antonito


The two things aren't unrelated. Prices in Calgary skyrocketed because suddenly everyone had giant salaries. There is a cap for house pricing relative to the amount of money people have to spend.

That said, there is the "Vancouver syndrome", where people get all flighty about housing and will spend 70% of their net income on housing, which will make everyone else cry. Hopefully people here aren't that stupid, and really i think the recent slowdown is a sign of hope in that regard.

I don't think prices will drop. We don't exactly have a bust. Oil is strong, commodities are strong. There are still many project to keep people in Calgary spending for at least 2-4 more years.

If you're betting on a drop, I would say that will be in about a year or 2 if global economy can't be revived and energy use drops big time.

[civic_rida]

6018 homes :)

[01RedDX]

.

[SilverRex]

we finally break the 6000 SFH barrier on creb.com

and also I love the following article

" We all know that there's no bubble after all, right. There are only 3000 condos for sale in Calgary and the market has just experienced its first YOY decline in a long time. And there are only 9000 condos under construction in Calgary as of January 2008 as per CMHC Feb 2008 report for Calgary. At the current rate of sales of very optimistic 600 per month, there will be supply of at least 20 months"

also edmonton is even worse, they have a supply for 40 months.

Its exciting times for buyers indeed haha

[SilverRex]

oh check this out too

"Total MLS inventory of listings at the end of March were 12,597, a 166.72-per-cent increase from 4,723 registered in March 2007."

sweet

[barmanjay]

Sure looks like a buyers market

[S4maniac]

Originally posted by Xtrema


I don't think prices will drop. We don't exactly have a bust. Oil is strong, commodities are strong. There are still many project to keep people in Calgary spending for at least 2-4 more years.

If you're betting on a drop, I would say that will be in about a year or 2 if global economy can't be revived and energy use drops big time.

Oh they'll drop and they'll drop fast. The listings inventory are the current for sale houses. These houses will sell over the next month or two. When possession is taken and the sale prices are realized in July and August, there will be a substantial drops.

Remember, this inventory increase are the "early birds" getting in on what is supposed to be a hot spring selling season. Inventory will incease until May.

[01RedDX]

.

[HRD2PLZ]

For March 2008, CREB is down 38% in volume from March 2007, while the average price is only down 0.8% since March 2007. These stats are for Calgary residential.

There is a lot of product on the market to choose from, but a fair amount of people are buying. The good, well priced homes are moving fast. Still seeing the odd multiple offer out there.

[S4maniac]

Originally posted by HRD2PLZ
For March 2008, CREB is down 38% in volume from March 2007, while the average price is only down 0.8% since March 2007. These stats are for Calgary residential.

There is a lot of product on the market to choose from, but a fair amount of people are buying. The good, well priced homes are moving fast. Still seeing the odd multiple offer out there.

You have to take into account that the number of listings is immediate. The sale prices of these March homes shows up in June-August when the deal closes. With the inventory up 166% over last year, we're gonna see average house prices slip and slide all the way til fall.

[7thgenvic]

im going to wait another year to buy....people are smoking crack right now trying to get 500000 for forest lawn house.. :)

[HRD2PLZ]

Originally posted by S4maniac


You have to take into account that the number of listings is immediate. The sale prices of these March homes shows up in June-August when the deal closes. With the inventory up 166% over last year, we're gonna see average house prices slip and slide all the way til fall.

These stats have nothing to do with when the deals close. None of the published Calgary Real Estate Board statistics do, CREB tracks by sale date and not by possession date.

I don't disagree that prices will most likely continue to slip.

[S4maniac]

Originally posted by HRD2PLZ


These stats have nothing to do with when the deals close. None of the published Calgary Real Estate Board statistics do, CREB tracks by sale date and not by possession date.

I don't disagree that prices will most likely continue to slip.

It was my understanding that possession date was the legal sale date. If thats incorrect, my bad.

Anyways, I think we're saying the same thing ... record inventory levels now will show up as dropping sale prices in a month or two (or three)

[riceboi]

The prices will drop will you see Encana or any major O&G players start to layoff their staff in the newspaper headlines. Until this happens I don't see any drastic price changes in either direction.

You think if you wait more you will get a good deal, think again. Most of the fair priced houses are gone fast just like before. I think the investors/fllippers are asking too much for their properties.

[The Cosworth]

^^ DFO (Department of fisheries and oceans) pulled Imerial oils water license for a large Tar sands mine. The rumour is they are seeing if it is even worth continuing now.




DAVID EBNER

From Monday's Globe and Mail

March 31, 2008 at 3:48 AM EDT

CALGARY — — The federal government has revoked a key water permit for Imperial Oil Ltd.'s proposed $8-billion Kearl oil sands mine, delaying work on a major new oil sands development as environmental scrutiny of the massive projects around Fort McMurray intensifies.

Imperial, which is majority-owned by Exxon Mobil Corp., has been granted an expedited court hearing, scheduled for early May, on its application to overturn the decision. The company says the lost permit could mean a delay of one or more years, according to an affidavit.

The mine had been scheduled to start producing 100,000 barrels of bitumen a day in 2011. Imperial's board of directors is expected to make a final decision about whether to build the mine by the end of September.

The loss of the water permit stems from a Federal Court of Canada judgment in early March that found approval of the Kearl project by the Alberta and federal governments didn't fully explain why greenhouse gas emissions were not significant. However, that ruling didn't throw out the overall approval.
Imperial Oil

The Globe and Mail

Still, citing the court judgment, the federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans told Imperial in a March 20 letter that the water permit issued Feb. 8 had been rendered invalid. Imperial, the letter stated, "is not authorized to proceed with any works or undertakings that will cause a harmful alteration, disruption or destruction of fish habitat or that destroys fish by any means other than fishing." A Fisheries habitat biologist is set to visit Kearl in the next several days to assess the situation.

Imperial is "very disappointed" by Ottawa's decision, said company spokesman Gordon Wong. "[The water permit] is legally valid and that's the argument we will pursue in court," he said.

The voided water permit is a victory for non-profit environmental groups, including Alberta's Pembina Institute and the Sierra Club of Canada, who brought the original federal court case against Imperial and Kearl and were fighting the validity of the Fisheries authorization. The setback for Imperial comes as oil sands producers are facing challenges including sharply rising costs, and uncertainty related to new federal emissions legislation and recent environmental moves by U.S. lawmakers.

In granting Imperial's request for a hearing on the matter last week, Federal Court Justice Yves de Montigny rejected Imperial's call to quash the revocation, saying it is of "crucial importance to resolve all the uncertainties, legal and otherwise, before embarking on such an important project."

Imperial, which already has 1,000 workers at the Kearl site 70 kilometres north of Fort McMurray in northeastern Alberta, started initial work for the mine after receiving the Fisheries permit in early February and said the loss of the permit hasn't yet stopped preliminary site preparation.

However, with temperatures now climbing above freezing around Fort McMurray, the Kearl site is about to turn into a water-soaked boreal forest bog - and the important prep work of "de-watering" the proposed mining territory, set for this summer, cannot happen without the permit.

The proposed mine, which was scrutinized during 16 days of public hearings in late 2006, is viewed by the green groups as a flashpoint in the frenetic development of the oil sands and as an opportunity to challenge Exxon Mobil, considered by activists as the world's least environmentally friendly oil company and a long-time denier of global warming. The groups say that the project will mine an area of undisturbed boreal forest larger than 20,000 football fields.

While initial work at Kearl has begun, the biggest factor as Imperial's board weighs going forward with the project is the escalating cost of development.

For investors, the court fight over Kearl is unlikely to heighten concerns about environmental exposure, said Len Racioppo, president of money manager Jarislowsky Fraser Ltd., one of the Imperial's largest shareholders.

"We all know there's a very significant environmental risk in the oil sands - we've always known that," Mr. Racioppo said. "The court case isn't going to start a round of discussions among our analysts whether we should own or not own Imperial."

Imperial stock, buoyed by record oil prices, is near an all-time high - the shares have risen about 240 per cent in the past five years, compared with a gain of about 110 per cent for the S&P/TSX composite index.

Sean Nixon, a lawyer at Ecojustice who took on Kearl in court for the environmental groups, said Fisheries made the right decision to pull the water permit while the overall approval for the project is in limbo.

"It's always been our opinion that once you've shown a flaw in the environmental assessment, everything else that flows from that is flawed," Mr. Nixon said.



source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080331.wrimperial31/BNStory/energy/home

[HRD2PLZ]

Originally posted by S4maniac


It was my understanding that possession date was the legal sale date. If thats incorrect, my bad.

Anyways, I think we're saying the same thing ... record inventory levels now will show up as dropping sale prices in a month or two (or three)

Yeah possession date is technically the legal sale date but CREB uses the date a home is marked SOLD on the MLS :)

But yeah, pretty much that :thumbsup:

[ws_on99]

Originally posted by riceboi
The prices will drop will you see Encana or any major O&G players start to layoff their staff in the newspaper headlines. Until this happens I don't see any drastic price changes in either direction.

You think if you wait more you will get a good deal, think again. Most of the fair priced houses are gone fast just like before. I think the investors/fllippers are asking too much for their properties.

FYI: Suncor's laying off the ENTIRE IT dept and outsource to IBM, as far as I know only 90ish ppl got retained which means about 300 ppl will lose their jobs..

I'm sure there'll be more coming...

[whodiman]

Are you sure this is the ENTIRE IT dept? I just ran into a former coworker in the mall on Tuesday and she said she was busy as hell....or maybe she doesn't know she's being laid off yet?

[Big Daddy G]

I was under the impression it was just the Infrastructure team...

[ws_on99]

Originally posted by whodiman
Are you sure this is the ENTIRE IT dept? I just ran into a former coworker in the mall on Tuesday and she said she was busy as hell....or maybe she doesn't know she's being laid off yet?

It's the WHOLE IT team. infrastructure, Help Desk, Security, App support etc.

she is probably still in the transition team and she WILL BE gone by June (unless IBM has offered her for something). And she's right, I can imagine they are very busy now since most of the contractors are already gone...

[riceboi]

Originally posted by ws_on99


FYI: Suncor's laying off the ENTIRE IT dept and outsource to IBM, as far as I know only 90ish ppl got retained which means about 300 ppl will lose their jobs..

I'm sure there'll be more coming...

IT is so hot in calgary now that you don't have to try hard to get a decent IT job.

Normally, when a company outsources IT dept the vendor doesn't do massive layoff right away, especially when they want to make a good impression to the client. With a company like Suncor, I would think the package would be pretty attractive. In today's IT market I would take the package and walk to next door for another IT job.

[Revhard]

I am seeing the number of houses for sale increase rapidly.
That has to mean that these people are moving up the ladder or moving out of the city. The economy is too strong right now to see a drastic reduction, but I think the inventory will hurt the prices more than anything else.
Time will tell.
Also, if the BOC follows the US drop on cost of borrowing, that will help people think they can afford that 1 million dollar home.;)
It should also be noted that the people who are locking in their mortgages are getting hosed the worst by the banks right now.
Variable has historically been the best bet, but lately the banks have been keeping the BOC cuts to themselves on the fixed rates.

[civic_rida]

I think condo prices are gonna need to start dropping.

[Revhard]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I think condo prices are gonna need to start dropping.

I was listening on the radio yesterday that a 1bdrm was $200,000 and townhomes were starting at $300,000!!!
It seems to me that the big-ticket houses are the only ones really dropping price, as they were ridiculously overpriced anyway.

[HRD2PLZ]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I think condo prices are gonna need to start dropping.

They will, there is quite a few condo projects nearing completion right now and soon enough the condo market is going to be flooded with new listings. In order to keep competitive, prices will have to be lowered in order to sell.

[HondaRice]

Originally posted by 7thgenvic
im going to wait another year to buy....people are smoking crack right now trying to get 500000 for forest lawn house.. :)

yeah a new half side in forest lawn can cost u over 500

[suranga]

I’m in the market for an inner-city condo, so I’ve been following the Calgary market somewhat closely for the past little while. Here’s my speculation from analyzing CREB’s March 2008 residential statistics. In comparing March 08 month-end figures to that of March 07, inventory levels increased 350%, while sales decreased 40.5%. One would figure that sale prices would also decrease, but they remained roughly the same year over year. Obviously, condo prices have dropped from the peak of summer last year, but only now are prices reaching year over year levels. I think it’s safe to assume inventory levels will continue to increase at current year’s rate (~20% month over month since Jan 08) and many sellers will be forced to either significantly lower prices or end up taking a hit from their mortgage payments each month their property stays on the market. However, since the appeal of inner-city condos are still strong, it remains quite difficult to gauge the extent of prices reductions that will occur. My guess would be 10% by year’s end from present price levels, but I really have no basis for that estimate. All I know is that it’s a good market to buy now, but it will probably be better a few months down the line.

[The Cosworth]

^^ also I think that the 200,000 is an imaginary mental barrier that needs to be overcome.

Condo's have stopped dropping around the 205/210 range when they should really be in the 190's to be actually competative in the market.

Once a few people start to list at 199,000 and so on then things will drop quickly again and then who knows. It could either stabalize because now people (like me) are going to start looking to buy again or it will keep dropping because we aren't even close to done yet.

:dunno:

[whodiman]

You'd think that prices should have already dropped by now. It's simple supply and demand but Calgary has seemed to been able to defy that so far this spring.....for now. :dunno:

But you're probalby right Brendan. Once more people list at 199 this might change. I went looking at houses with my realtor last night and he 's busy every weekend now. He started doing open houses and he wasn't doing them at all this winter. He says when business is good you don't need open houses but now he can go a full week without anybody viewing his houses listed.

[SilverRex]

^^ that is whats even more scary as the sudden drop will cause a bigger panic then it is with a slow decline.

[TunerBaby]

:guns: :whipped: :drama:

[The Cosworth]

^^ nice contribution


anything new people? 2008 on the left, 2007 on the right. month change on the end

SINGLE FAMILY(Calgary Metro)
Month End Inventory 6,881 2,881
New Listings added 3,377 3,100 8.94%
Sales 1,363 2,086 -34.66%
Avg DOM 40 24 66.67%
Average Sale Price 474,564 474,250 0.07%
Median Price 420,000 432,000 -2.78%

CONDOMINIUM (Calgary Metro)
Month End Inventory 3,214 898
New Listings added 1,493 1,157 29.04%
Sales 581 839 -30.75%
Avg DOM 45 23 95.65%
Average Sale Price 312,586 329,429 -5.11%
Median Price 290,000 309,000 -6.15%



most important things to note, DOM is up significantly, Median price is down a bit (start of a trend :dunno: ), and listings are up a lot.

DOM will be the first indicator of a market change, prices track DOM and sales.

[suranga]

What does DOM stand for again?

Checked MLS this morning and saw a 1BDRM condo in SASSO listed for $350,000 and a similiar unit ~$300,000. I had a good laugh.

[The Cosworth]

DOM = Days on market


That can also be from when it was put on and then taken off the market

[cam_wmh]

I am also in the market for an inner city 2 BR 2 BATh condo.
Likely I'll wait til the Fall/Winter...

[tm.88]

as a realtor i would love to tell all of you to buy your condos right now.....but honestly, deffinatly wait for the majority of these downtown condo projects to complete. I am going to start looking into it this week as to when they are expected done.

But once those are all on the market we will see condo prices drop.

Buying a condo is much more difficult to do than a house if you want to make sure everything is going to be all good. There are many more documents to review and there is even a company i work with that digs up all sorts of info like when everything has been replaced. If you are moving into a condo that has a 50 year old roof, 30 year old hot water tank etc...and the condo does not have a healthy reserve fund, there is a good chance you will be receiving a special assesment and start paying much more than you planned.
And i know everyone likes paying for avoidable expenses:clap: :clap: :clap: