2009 Calgary Real Estate "Expert" Forecasts Here!

[topfuelman]

Let's hear from any sources that you can find, and compile them in this thread.
Not interested in your personal opinions, just the "so called experts" published forecasts.

For Starters, today December 23, a TD BANK officially forecast that...

"For homeowners, there's more bad news, however, with home prices projected to fall more than 10 per cent next year (2009), on top of this year's 2.1 per cent dip, and then edging up by just 0.5 per cent in 2010.

Provincially, the steepest drops in home prices next year will be 15.6 per cent in British Columbia and 14.6 per cent in Alberta.

Put that in you pipe this Christmas

[civic_rida]

i think condo's need to drop huge. I see all these listings for the new nova building and the people still want over 400 000 and they look like crap.

[broken_legs]

I think theres already 3-5 threads on this all of which have very interesting and informative articles about the real estate market, economics in Alberta and Calgary specifically. You can read those and see how everyones opinion has changed over the last year or so.

[oz388]

For condo sellers, if they are smart enough they should forecast how much to lose rather than how much gain in profit with their unsold units :dunno:

[2BLUE]

The NOVA was on the news the other night

83% of the building is empty :thumbsup:

[Barlow]

I know everyone is worried about the house prices coming down, but think if your house dropped 10% the house you are goign to buy obviously dropped 10% as well.

This is just like wehn people were trying to make money by buying houses and selling houses in the boom.

Unless you were moving cities meaning you could sell high and buy low, you weren't really making any money.

The only thing people need to worry about is their mortagage, but i do not see the big deal with price of a house.


It's a cycle.... it will raise again and yes it will fall again.


Barlow

[civic_rida]

Thats all fine but what about the person who bought a few properties for investment purposes.

[PeterGTiR]

Originally posted by 2BLUE
The NOVA was on the news the other night

83% of the building is empty :thumbsup:

I looked on MLS - the properties are going for $550/sq ft. There's this one bed, one bath for $404,900 at 727 sq ft. I saw a picture of the Nova presentation centre on this other forum - the picture had this sold out sticker on it.

I guess all 83% of these speculators bought them to flip...too bad...

I hope places like Nova drop more than that 10%....maybe 50% before they're sold

[extm88]

Its to tough to take generic stats like that and make case. You need to dig down deeper into citys and condo vs SFH. Not to mention so many stats that come out are roughly 6 months old as it took them some time to compile all there data and then display it.
Look on the bright side, because there 6 months old, i bet that our market is on a %30 climb at the moment:bigpimp:
(Yes that was sarcasm)

[88CRX]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Thats all fine but what about the person who bought a few properties for investment purposes.

They get burnt for trying to buy/sell houses like they're stocks in the market.

[SilverRex]

I think those numbers are realistic, so another 15% drop is about
320k for a median single detached.

If I remember studying some charts, house prices in the last 20-30 years has always follow the canada GDP growth, and the last two years is anything but out of track, and for price to come back to the GDP growth line, it happens to be in the 300-350k range.

so for buyings on the side lines, I think those are the numbers you shoot for :)

[PeterGTiR]

Forecasts from Garth Turner of Greaterfool.ca:

1. Fort Mac, KOA 2009 projected change: -47%
2. Kelowna, BC 2009 projected change: -38%
3. Canmore, KOA 2009 projected change: -27%
4. Vancouver, BC 2009 projected change: -21%
5. Windsor-Chatham, Ont 2009 projected change: -20%
6. Victoria, BC 2009 projected change: -18%
7. Edmonton, Kingdom of Alta 2009 projected change: -16% 8. Muskoka, Ont 2009 projected change: -16%
9. Calgary, KOA 2009 projected change: -15%
10. GTA, Ont 2009 projected change: -14%

It's about inline with the TD Bank Forecasts.

He's also saying there will be "tens of thousand of (condo) units that speculators" never intended on keeping; they just invested in them trying to flip them. For the buyers/renters, lets hope his predictions are accurate.

[anothers10]

If its true, I will be moving back to alberta in 09.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 88CRX


They get burnt for trying to buy/sell houses like they're stocks in the market.

Yes. Buying a house with 10-20% down is like buying a stock on margin. Speculate and gamble and hope for big returns lol

Only risk what you are willing to lose! Can't really feel bad for the guy since he knew the up and down side.

Anyway, any declines still suck. It's paper money vanishing into the air. lol

[tedstriker]

I predict homes will be bought and sold at prices agreed upon by the buyer and seller!!!

[Xtrema]

Sounds about right.

Boy, Ft Mac is hurting now. Another 47% would REALLY hurt.

And why does Greaterfools call us Kingdom of Alberta (KOA)?

[barmanjay]

Originally posted by tedstriker
I predict homes will be bought and sold at prices agreed upon by the buyer and seller!!!

STELLAR PREDICTION!

[Proboscis]

The Ring Road will just be a ring road for Calgary.

[JordanAndrew]

This is looking good for the first time home/condo buyers though so there's a plus side for this. I'm looking into buying a house or a condo in about 1.5-2 years from now so hopefully it'll work out for me. :thumbsup:

[JordanEG6]

Originally posted by civic_rida
i think condo's need to drop huge. I see all these listings for the new nova building and the people still want over 400 000 and they look like crap.

:werd:
not to mention they will be very difficult to sell afterwards.

[Kloubek]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Thats all fine but what about the person who bought a few properties for investment purposes.

A savvy investor would buy when the market is low. Just like stocks. If someone decided to dump their entire life into multiple properties at a bad time in the market, then that's just plain dumb, and they are going to lose a lot of money if they cannot hold onto them until the market takes an upturn.

[b_t]

Originally posted by Kloubek


A savvy investor would buy when the market is low. Just like stocks. If someone decided to dump their entire life into multiple properties at a bad time in the market, then that's just plain dumb, and they are going to lose a lot of money if they cannot hold onto them until the market takes an upturn.

Further proof that trying to outperform the market is a waste of money and only works maybe 5% of the time :rofl:

[01RedDX]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 01RedDX
Goodbye Recession '08, Hello Depression '09

My guess is that next year, the dominoes will continue to fall, as home prices keep dropping and with more layoffs being announced. People with high debt to equity ratios will abandon their homes at a growing rate which will exacerbate the situation, sending average prices to pre-2005 levels in 2010. It will level out after that, with a period of slow, steady growth and recovery to 2007 levels by 2015.

that is hyperinflation doesnt start to kick in any time soon, but if it does, things can get right back up there just as quick. But there is no denying 2009 will be the year to get into real estate if one has the money

[broken_legs]

Classic supply-demand conundrum unfolds
CLAIRE NEARY
06:00 EST Tuesday, Dec 30, 2008
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Talk about unfortunate timing: Canada's major office markets are about to be flooded with new supply amounting to several million square feet – just as the economic slowdown is raising alarm bells over whether there will be enough people left to occupy the space.

“You could say the timing is perfect … perfectly wrong,” said Ian MacCulloch, Canadian vice-president of research at Colliers International. “But it's very hard to see these things coming.”

While the imbalance of supply and demand is cause for concern, real estate observers remain confident that lessons learned from faltered markets of the early 1990s, along with “good old-fashioned due diligence,” will keep the market at least steady over the next year.

There are more than 400 million square feet of office space in Canada, a good chunk of it – 162 million square feet – in the Greater Toronto Area, followed by Montreal, Calgary and Vancouver, according to statistics from Cushman & Wakefield LePage Inc.

In the next two years, the GTA will see a little less than 10 million square feet of space added to its inventory, including three million in 2009 in downtown Toronto, which is heavily dependent on the financial services industry.

Aside from a couple of smaller developments, Toronto hasn't added any major office towers since the mid to late nineties, Mr. MacCulloch said. “So, in terms of new supply, this is huge.”

It's a similar picture in the Calgary area where about nine million square feet of space is expected to come on stream in the next two years – almost a 20-per-cent increase just as Alberta's oil and gas economy is starting to slow, resulting in less demand from energy companies for office space.

“It takes several years to get these projects in the ground, approved and under construction, so many of these projects were planned based on conditions that don't exist any more,” Mr. MacCulloch said. “I think in Calgary and Toronto we'll see a reasonably significant uptick in vacancy rates, which will result in downward pressure on rents.”

To what extent, however, is anyone's guess.

“The demand side of the equation is the great unknown right now,” he said. “We've got this multiheaded monster at play and no one's quite sure what it's going to do yet.

“It's a good time to be a tenant,” he added. Those who can afford to will be able to explore their options for expansion, and many will be able to lower their operating costs thanks to lower rental rates.

While many office building tenants from the energy sector have healthy balance sheets, the volatile price of oil has left observers wondering whether those companies will grow into Calgary's massive supply of new space or put much of it back on the market, said John O'Bryan, vice-chairman at CB Richard Ellis. “If the commodity pricing stays down, with that much new supply in a volatile market, it can create a difficult situation.”

The good news, however, is that unlike the recession of the early nineties, today's office market is well poised to handle an economic downturn, said Pierre Bergevin, president and chief executive officer of Cushman & Wakefield.

“In this cycle, compared with others, there's been an enormous amount of discipline, and just good old-fashioned due diligence by builders and lenders,” he said. “They've got these very strict conditions for when they build, how much they build, and how much they borrow.”

Mr. O'Bryan added that, in contrast to the early nineties when most major office developments were held by private companies with weak balance sheets, many of today's biggest projects are in the hands of major pension funds, which adds stability to the market.

As well, this time around, more than half of the new buildings about to arrive in Calgary and Toronto are preleased to blue-chip tenants, Mr. Bergevin said. So far, he said, no tenants have backed out of their agreements.

Canada's office market is entering the recession in the healthiest state it's ever been, Mr. Bergevin said. “Nationally, across the board, virtually all markets have reached historically low vacancy rates. It's probably the best overall vacancy rate outlook ever.”

Even if vacancy rates in Toronto double, as Colliers' Mr. McCulloch believes that they may, they'll still be in the single digits. That compares with vacancies of 20 per cent in Dallas and 18 per cent in Chicago, and is still extremely healthy, Mr. Bergevin said.

Another benefit of the new supply in Calgary and Toronto is that it's all class A, environmentally sound and well designed.

“While we're not worried about the new buildings, the older ones may have difficultly finding replacement tenants,” said John O'Toole, executive vice-president and managing director at CB Richard Ellis.

To prepare for the changing landscape, Cushman & Wakefield has been advising landlords to make sure that they're keeping up with their tenants' needs in order to hang on to them, Mr. Bergevin said.

For tenants, this is the time to make sure they're getting what they need, and those who are moving or coming to the end of their lease terms may be able to take advantage of lower rental rates, he said.

“The prudent landlord and the prudent tenant are working together … In the last cycle [1989-92], there was so much building and there was so much space around that it was quite antagonistic. I think this time around, everyone works together for the benefit of everybody.”

But for now, Mr. Bergevin said, most tenants are staying put. “We're seeing a monumental stillness in the marketplace because everyone on the tenant side is adopting a wait-and-see approach.”

There are a few dark clouds on the horizon, however. One sign that things are already changing is a slight increase in sublet activity, among companies hardest hit by the economic slowdown, Mr. Bergevin said.

But there won't be nearly as much subletting as there was in 2001 after the dotcom meltdown and 2.2 million square feet of sublet space came on the market quickly, he said. “Not unless there's a huge restructuring in the Canadian economy, which we don't anticipate any time soon.”

[civic_rida]

I have a feel lots of peole took their listings off the market in hopes for better things to come in Jan but im pretty sure that wont be the case.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I have a feel lots of peole took their listings off the market in hopes for better things to come in Jan but im pretty sure that wont be the case.

Most agents don't want to list over Dec because of lack of traffic during the holidays.

[Barlow]

Originally posted by JordanEG6


:werd:
not to mention they will be very difficult to sell afterwards.

That is if once again you are buying with the sole intention of selling.

I bougth my place planning on living it for at least five years, I did not buy at the lowest point, I'm ok with that, I don't plan on moving any time soon unless my career goes a different path.

By the time I'm ready to move I'm hoping the market will correct itself, and or I'm ina position where i have enough money to just simply turn the condo intoa rental unit and buy a new place with the wife.

only time will tell,


not everyone thought this boom would go on foreever did they?

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by Barlow

not everyone thought this boom would go on foreever did they?

I did not. But I also didn't think it will crash this hard.

[Heff]

Originally posted by Barlow
not everyone thought this boom would go on foreever did they?

It couldn't.
That would be worse than a recession/depression cycle.

[PeterGTiR]

I got this from another thread:


Originally posted by cmyden
Just an FYI, my girlfriend and I both managed to sell our townhouses in December, only after researching every inner city townhouse for sale in town, and trying to be the 'best deal in town'. The very few people out there that are buying, are looking for amazing bargains.

After running a lot of reports on townhouses that actually managed to sell post-recession news (ie October/November) we decided to price around the 80% of assessed value mark.

I think hers might have been closer to 83% of asssessed, and mine was around 80%.

Anyways, that's just what worked for us, your mileage may vary.

This guy sold his and his girlfriend's home for -17% and -20% of their assessed values. I hope it's a sign of things to come. I've been looking at places that are asking $259,900 - a 20% price drop from this is $207,920. $207,920 for a two bed, 1 bath condo in Connaught/Victoria Park would be awesome...

[prae]

I just bought a detached house for 70% of assessed value.

[autosm]

Originally posted by Xtrema


I did not. But I also didn't think it will crash this hard.



+1 :cry:

[barmanjay]

Originally posted by prae
I just bought a detached house for 70% of assessed value.

I think we'll see alot of that in 09

[ExtraSlow]

I'm looking to upgrade my house in 2009, so a drop for me is good news. Even if I have to sell my current house for well under assessed value, I'm still doing well because the house I'd be buying into is worth more, and therefore at a greater discount in dollar terms.

The really smart thing to do would be to keep the current house and rent it out, but that might be tough to swing for a non-baller like me.

[prae]

Originally posted by barmanjay


I think we'll see alot of that in 09


annoying that challenging assessed value isnt $20 anymore. I think the city saw this coming and wanted to keep tax revenues to help ease any possible "technical deficit".

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by prae
I just bought a detached house for 70% of assessed value.

What kind of sale was this?

[ws_on99]

Originally posted by Xtrema


I did not. But I also didn't think it will crash this hard.

Did u ever "think" the market will be going up as much/as fast in 05-07? If so, u r probably a billionaire by now...lol...On the other hand if not, what makes you "think" that it'll not crash hard?

[civic_rida]

cause intrest rates are still low and people still have jobs.

[topfuelman]

Originally posted by civic_rida
cause intrest rates are still low and people still have jobs.

These are considered fundamentals, and are true...for now.
But consider this, it is consumer sentiment of what the future holds that actually drives market prices higher or lower. Think Fear and Optimism.

T

[ws_on99]

Originally posted by civic_rida
cause intrest rates are still low and people still have jobs.

Interest rates are variables, they go up and down out of your control. Plus they r sitting @record low which means they can only go up in the future. Thus your monthly payment will only go up. I hope you are not buying houses just becuz interest rates is low...

People still have jobs? well idk..oil goes up a bit to @$46 2day, however ATCO/CNRL is cutting, Suncor is laying off contractors, wait till later this yr and I'm sure we'll see more.

[barmanjay]

Originally posted by Xtrema


Most agents don't want to list over Dec because of lack of traffic during the holidays.

i wanted to quote this earlier but i was busy taking advantage of xmas cheer.

All this year, i've purposely steered away from sellers, and worked exclusively with buyers.

I knew prices were going to fall well below most sellers expectations, but wasn't opposed to looking/working/implementing buyers price expectations vs the quality of homes they want.

I feel prices might be a bit more stable through spring and summer this year, and which I might consider sellers, but there cant be another flood of prospectors trying to dump their properties and flood the market as bad as it was earlier last year.

I honestly suspect prices will hold at 70-80% of city assessed values through 09.

Any less and i would really have a close look to see what serious problems the property has.

No matter what 'expert' documents and writings you all find about the outlook for 09, they are all predictions, nothing is concrete. Only the masses of consumers control the markets. As long as people can afford to buy, the markets will be stable.

Who knows, we might see alot of 'downgrading' in home size and maybe areas this year.

[prae]

Originally posted by broken_legs


What kind of sale was this?

the usual kind... nothing special. just a lowball with appealing conditions (large deposit, fast possession)

[barmanjay]

Originally posted by prae
... (large deposit, fast possession)

those are the best kind,.. betters your chances for acceptance

[Akagi Redsuns]

Originally posted by barmanjay

snip.........
I feel prices might be a bit more stable through spring and summer this year, and which I might consider sellers, but there cant be another flood of prospectors trying to dump their properties and flood the market as bad as it was earlier last year.
...........snip

Why not? It's not like that most of them were able to sell their places last year. I suspect there is a ton of places that are off the market right now with the intention of a earlier year or spring listing.

[AZ REALTY]

Originally posted by Barlow
not everyone thought this boom would go on foreever did they?

It's funny you say that....when I was taking my real estate agent sales course in 2006, there was a lady in the class who made the comment to the instructor, "What do you mean? Real estate values never go down". That's when I knew we were in trouble.

[Redlyne_mr2]

I swear it shoudl be illegal for the media to portray speculation as fact. I remember 2 years ago when real estate prices were sky rocketing they had "experts" being interviewed stating that if you didn't get into the market at that time then you'd never be able to afford it in the future. It's moronic statements like that which caused a panic and an increase in the values of properties. I feel sorry for the people who over extended themselves back then.

[civic_rida]

creb is always sayin now is the time to buy

[extm88]

This is where your own basic knowledge comes into factor. When homes were soaring in 06/07 and you heard "if you didnt get in now then you will only pay more in the future" did you really believe it. Real estate is cyclical and i would love to see a clip of all the people that made idiotic statements during this time.
Alot of people are in a rough position now because of it however there are alot of people that decided to rent for a year and now it has paid off. Despite rent prices being high during that time.

[Xtrema]

Originally posted by extm88
This is where your own basic knowledge comes into factor. When homes were soaring in 06/07 and you heard "if you didnt get in now then you will only pay more in the future" did you really believe it.

I did believe it. But I still enforce my fundamentals on purchases. Even I bought a property in 07, I'm nowhere near upside down yet.