Hockey Pool Strategy Help?

[dino_martini]

Hey guys,

I dont know how many of you can help me, or want to help me. Anyway, for the past few seasons I've been participating in a NHL Playoff Hockey Pool. But I've never really had any results. Last year I came in dead last (I swear Boston was going to beat Montreal ;) ). I dont really go in with a strategy. But maybe I should explain how the pool works if your going to help me.

So essentially, there is a group of about 10-15 of us. Everyone draws a card from a deck of cards. So the person who picks the Ace of Spades gets first pick, then King of Spades, Queen of Spades...so on. Then when you get to the last person, they pick, then they pick again and you go back up the list. Say there were five people in the pool, the pick system would go like this:

1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1-1-2-3-4-5...so on

We do it so you have to pick players, once that player is picked another person cannot draft that player. The exception is the goalie pool, where anyone can draft any goalie they like.

The first year I played this pool, I just picked at random. Got lucky, Flames went to the Stanley cup Finals. But then the next season i've been trying to pick 2-3 players from each team that I think will go to the finals. But it hasnt really worked.

Do you guys go in with a strategy like that? Should I just try to pick from a single team?

Hypothetically, I get to pick first. Who should I pick? Thorton? Crosby? Ovechkin? Malkin?

For the Goalie pool I can pick any goal tender, Thomas has the lowest GAA in the NHL, Nabokov is strong, Brodeur is strong...who should I pick?

I try to follow hockey as best as I can through the regular season, but I cant watch every game. Is there a team that I should specifically look for? I think Chicago might be prime..but then again they have a fairly young team. New Jersey and Vancouver have strong goal tending...but that can only take you so far. Of course San Jose, Detroit, they are real dangerous. Im 50-50 on Calgary, depending who we have back for the series from injury, we could go deep.

Sorry its so long, but I'd like to see some results this year. Thanks guys.

[rumeo]

how are you guys keeping points? goals,assists worth a point? powerplay/pk make a difference? what about plus minus and pm?

[dino_martini]

Originally posted by rumeo
how are you guys keeping points? goals,assists worth a point? powerplay/pk make a difference? what about plus minus and pm?

We keep it simple:

1 Point for a goal
1 Point for a assist

1 Point for Goalie Win
3 Points for Goalie Shootout Win

No power play, no plus - minus, no penalty minutes. :)

Im actually considering just picking all one team this year. I dont really know. All this strategy can only go so far, maybe I will just go with my gut when I get to the draft...

[harv91]

Originally posted by dino_martini


We keep it simple:

1 Point for a goal
1 Point for a assist

1 Point for Goalie Win
3 Points for Goalie Shootout Win

No power play, no plus - minus, no penalty minutes. :)

Im actually considering just picking all one team this year. I dont really know. All this strategy can only go so far, maybe I will just go with my gut when I get to the draft...

just a heads up there are no shootouts in the play offs, unless of course u meant shutout.
I would suggest picking 1 team from the east and 1 team from the west that you think will go all the way to the finals and just take players off those 2 teams.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by harv91
I would suggest picking 1 team from the east and 1 team from the west that you think will go all the way to the finals and just take players off those 2 teams.

This.

Picking mediocre scorers that make it to the finals is WAY better than picking top guns that will be out in the first round.

[buh_buh]

stack your team with who you think will be in the finals. High risk/high reward, but its probably the best way to win.

[dino_martini]

Originally posted by harv91


just a heads up there are no shootouts in the play offs, unless of course u meant shutout.
I would suggest picking 1 team from the east and 1 team from the west that you think will go all the way to the finals and just take players off those 2 teams.

Yeah I meant Shutout lol. :) :banghead:

I think i'll take your advice and just pick from a team or two I think will make the finals. It is high risk, and I may not get all the snipers from that team. But even some 3rd or 4th line guys put the puck in occasionally.

[88CRX]

Originally posted by buh_buh
stack your team with who you think will be in the finals. High risk/high reward, but its probably the best way to win.

This is how I usually do it.... but playoff pools require one other very important thing.

LUCK.

Playoff pools are 95% luck.... everyone knows whos going to score points in the playoffs, you just need to be lucky enough to pick players from teams that last till the later rounds.

[rip]

Usually in order to win a playoff draft you need to pick the top 4 teams playing in the conference finals. If you can successfully pick these 4 teams and only pick the top scorers from those teams you'll do well.

[5hift]

I may get my share of doubters, but I’m in these regularly for multiple sports and usually bring in money or at least break-even, and here’s how I see it:

First off unless I missed it, what are your roster regulations? Ie, do you start 3 forwards, 2 D and a goalie, any reserves … how do you set lineups, do you have to have certain positions besides scorers and goalies.

For NHL specifically, according to your rules, this is the obvious stuff:

- No +/- makes it really easy for picks, don’t have to worry about picking bad defensive players
- Equal points for goal/assist is huge, there is a less chance of someone who racks up assists playing on a big line going cold, than a sniper who carries his line, scoring only goals. à much easier to rack up assists than goals.
- Everyone can pick the same goalie, so hopefully everyone picks his goalie in the last round.
- As already mentioned, target consistent scorers on teams you think will go deep.

For me personally what I think:

- Even with their shoddy goaltending, I would be very surprised if either Detroit or San Jose did not come out of the west.
- Out of the east its going to be either Bruins/Devils/Penguins with a Carolina possibility.

- I’m not saying use a first round pick, but there is a very short list of consistently high scoring defensemen, in comparison to the pool of scoring forwards. Mike Green is obvious, but I doubt Washington will go deep with Theodore as their goalie. Lidstrom and Rafalski from Det both had good playoffs last year and will do the same again. Lidstrom especially is a points machine, and I would make sure to get him. Chara and Boyle are other good picks. Chara (Bos) will get taken too early, so let him go and take guys like Boyle (SJ) and Kronwell (Det) who will put up similar stats but be able to be taken much later in the draft. Wideman(Bos), and Blake (SJ), possibly Gonchar (Pit) are also sneaky late picks I would try to target, while others are taking Phaneuf, Markov, Campbell, Pronger etc.

- For forwards, there are guys that kill it in the regular season, but choke in the pressure and contact of the playoffs. Out of the top 20 regular season points leaders, the ones I’d target are Parise (NJ), Hossa (Det), Marleau (SJ), Kessel (Bos) and Malkin (Pit), Crosby (Pit), and Franzen (Det)

- The last thing I look at is guys in contract years or upcoming UFAs/RFAs. The best playoff performers are almost always the guys who are going to be free agents. The playoffs are the biggest stage, and they can add millions to their next contract by having a huge series. The most obvious one is Hossa (Det), just like last year, he will have a huge playoffs with upcoming free agency. Kessel (Bos), Krejci (Bos), Staal (Pit), Gionta (NJ) are all also upcoming free agents to the best of my knowledge.

[oilerfan4lyfe]

I agree with 88 that it's largely based on luck...

Also, I'd rather have a top player like Ovechkin for 2 rounds rather than having say...Daniel Cleary for 4 --> this of course assumes Cleary isn't the dude who is going to score 13+ goals in the playoffs...always seems like there is one of those. Problem is if Ovie gets booted in the first round you're in trouble...pools are fun aren't they :P

I think people tend to go a little overboard with picking pluggers from teams like Detroit and therefore they skip over much better players from teams who might not make it as far...then in the end realize that if they had picked someone like Ovechkin even if he gets booted n two rounds they would have been better off than picking the plugger.

I think the biggest problem now is figuring out what teams will make it...Detroit? Well I think they'll beat Columbus, but with their goaltending this season will they make it past the 2nd round? San Jose is good, but Anaheim has the D to shut down their offence. The East is even worse...you could almost pick a team out of a hat.

[dino_martini]

Originally posted by 5hift
First off unless I missed it, what are your roster regulations? Ie, do you start 3 forwards, 2 D and a goalie, any reserves … how do you set lineups, do you have to have certain positions besides scorers and goalies.

There are no rules, you can pick 9 defense men if you like. Thanks for your help 5hift. :)

[buh_buh]

5hift, that's sound advice, but you are focusing way too much on the heavy hitters and you are looking way too deep into this. Those are obviously the guys that everyone's going to pick, and UFAs aren't going to perform/not perform in the playoffs. Guys aren't taking games off in the playoffs regardless if its a contract year or not. If you're soft, it doesn't matter you won't put up points anyway. Don't let a potential UFA deter you from picking someone who's good. Where you win the pools are your late round gems. The Franzens, Kronwalls, Bergerons, Langenbrunners that make it deep into the playoffs. Like Oilerfan says, the Clearys might not get you many points, but if you pick the right one and they catch fire and make it deep, that's where you'll win your pools. I would personally take a Cleary for 4 rounds than Ovechkin for 1 round, even if he scores a hat trick in every game... ok maybe not Cleary but I'd easily take Filppula, Hudler or Samuelsson... not that I think Detroit's a shoe in for the SCF either.

And if you don't have to have a set number of forwards and D, take the minimum number of D and stack your front line. D men are useless when it comes to putting up points anyway unless you're Mike Green.

[5hift]

Originally posted by dino_martini


There are no rules, you can pick 9 defense men if you like. Thanks for your help 5hift. :)

No prob, if there are no rules, as buh buh already said, fuck d men and only pick fowards.


Originally posted by buh_buh
5hift, that's sound advice, but you are focusing way too much on the heavy hitters and you are looking way too deep into this. Those are obviously the guys that everyone's going to pick, and UFAs aren't going to perform/not perform in the playoffs. Guys aren't taking games off in the playoffs regardless if its a contract year or not. If you're soft, it doesn't matter you won't put up points anyway. Don't let a potential UFA deter you from picking someone who's good. Where you win the pools are your late round gems. The Franzens, Kronwalls, Bergerons, Langenbrunners that make it deep into the playoffs. Like Oilerfan says, the Clearys might not get you many points, but if you pick the right one and they catch fire and make it deep, that's where you'll win your pools. I would personally take a Cleary for 4 rounds than Ovechkin for 1 round, even if he scores a hat trick in every game... ok maybe not Cleary but I'd easily take Filppula, Hudler or Samuelsson... not that I think Detroit's a shoe in for the SCF either.


This is true partially, but you'd be surprised. I can guarentee you Flames and Capitals will fly off the board early in most drafts who I wouldnt touch with later round picks. Dont let the impending free agency effect fool you either, you think Cammy is ever going to hit 40 goals again?

[buh_buh]

Cammy didn't hit 40 goals this year, but I get your point. He put up 34 in his last healthy season in LA and is only 26, so getting 40 isn't exactly out of the realm, especially if he ends up in the east. In fact, I can almost guarantee he gets 40 at some point in his career. But what does regular season play have to do with playoffs? I do think some players play better in contract years, but come playoff time, it doesn't matter nearly as much.

As for the Flames, that's to be expected since you live in Calgary. Just snicker to yourself as you take their money. That's what I do. As for Caps, I already stated my case.

[88CRX]

I pick Flames players every year :facepalm:

I will try my best to avoid doing the same this year... but we'll see.

We have a lots of different guys in our league that are fans of other teams other than the Flames (Ducks, Canucks, Habs, Pens, etc) so there's not all Flames fans in ours.

We do straight goals & assists, no goalies.... I'll post my team after we do the draft tonight.

[dino_martini]

So I got pretty lucky this year, was able to draft 3rd. There was about 15 teams in it this year. Detroit, Boston, San Jose, and Pittsburgh got picked over.

My team is as follows:
1 - Joe Thorton
2 - Jonathan Cheechoo
3 - Jarome Iginla
4 - Michael Cammalleri
5 - Olli Jokinen
6 - Todd Bertuzzi
7 - Travis Moen
8 - Alexei Semanov
Goalie - Evegni Nabokov

Not too bad. Nash was sitting there until about the 5th round, and I was going to draft him but someone got there first. What ever, if I lose I lose. These pools make watching the Playoffs a lot more exciting.

Go Flames
Go Sharks

:clap:

[chathamf]

Last year I destroyed in my hockey pool that is laid out in the same format.

I managed to have 9 of 10 players still left in the semi final, then over half still in the finals. All luck though, I didn't even know anything about the playoffs at the time as I'm a leafs fan and stopped paying attention halfway through the season.

[Eleanor]

Yikes, you didn't really spread yourself out much there, eh?

Flames are going down in the first round. Also Thornton usually sucks balls in the playoffs.

[dino_martini]

Originally posted by Eleanor
Yikes, you didn't really spread yourself out much there, eh?

Flames are going down in the first round. Also Thornton usually sucks balls in the playoffs.

Yeah, I started to pick San Jose and then all the calgary players were sitting there.

Even if Calgary has a first round exit, I think this series is going atleast 6 games. I have 3 of the top players, so I should get a few points here and there.

[crzycroat]

Maybe we should start our own little pool dino martini. Do you think that Peter, Paul, Bryce, Vini, Ben or Daniel would want in?

[crzycroat]

Originally posted by crzycroat
Maybe we should start our own little pool dino martini. Do you think that Peter, Paul, Bryce, Vini, Ben or Daniel would want in?

Actually never mind. I don't want Daniel touching my money :rofl:

[dino_martini]

Originally posted by crzycroat


Actually never mind. I don't want Daniel touching my money :rofl:

lol. Good point.

Anyway, running a hockey pool is a lot of work if you dont use one of the online manager things. You have to update the points manually and all that. Not for me.

[crzycroat]

Originally posted by dino_martini


lol. Good point.

Anyway, running a hockey pool is a lot of work if you dont use one of the online manager things. You have to update the points manually and all that. Not for me.

Well if everyone keeps tab on how they're doing (and they don't cheat) then I guess that it shouldn't be to hard to manager. :dunno:

[dino_martini]

Originally posted by crzycroat


Well if everyone keeps tab on how they're doing (and they don't cheat) then I guess that it shouldn't be to hard to manager. :dunno:

You cant really be that trusting though. Its best to keep checks on the points and everything. Its too late to do a draft anyway, the playoffs start tomorrow. We can do a draft next year maybe.

[buh_buh]

join our beyond sportingnews pool

[kamakurakid]

Originally posted by 5hift
I may get my share of doubters, but I’m in these regularly for multiple sports and usually bring in money or at least break-even, and here’s how I see it:

First off unless I missed it, what are your roster regulations? Ie, do you start 3 forwards, 2 D and a goalie, any reserves … how do you set lineups, do you have to have certain positions besides scorers and goalies.

For NHL specifically, according to your rules, this is the obvious stuff:

- No +/- makes it really easy for picks, don’t have to worry about picking bad defensive players
- Equal points for goal/assist is huge, there is a less chance of someone who racks up assists playing on a big line going cold, than a sniper who carries his line, scoring only goals. à much easier to rack up assists than goals.
- Everyone can pick the same goalie, so hopefully everyone picks his goalie in the last round.
- As already mentioned, target consistent scorers on teams you think will go deep.

For me personally what I think:

- Even with their shoddy goaltending, I would be very surprised if either Detroit or San Jose did not come out of the west.
- Out of the east its going to be either Bruins/Devils/Penguins with a Carolina possibility.

- I’m not saying use a first round pick, but there is a very short list of consistently high scoring defensemen, in comparison to the pool of scoring forwards. Mike Green is obvious, but I doubt Washington will go deep with Theodore as their goalie. Lidstrom and Rafalski from Det both had good playoffs last year and will do the same again. Lidstrom especially is a points machine, and I would make sure to get him. Chara and Boyle are other good picks. Chara (Bos) will get taken too early, so let him go and take guys like Boyle (SJ) and Kronwell (Det) who will put up similar stats but be able to be taken much later in the draft. Wideman(Bos), and Blake (SJ), possibly Gonchar (Pit) are also sneaky late picks I would try to target, while others are taking Phaneuf, Markov, Campbell, Pronger etc.

- For forwards, there are guys that kill it in the regular season, but choke in the pressure and contact of the playoffs. Out of the top 20 regular season points leaders, the ones I’d target are Parise (NJ), Hossa (Det), Marleau (SJ), Kessel (Bos) and Malkin (Pit), Crosby (Pit), and Franzen (Det)

- The last thing I look at is guys in contract years or upcoming UFAs/RFAs. The best playoff performers are almost always the guys who are going to be free agents. The playoffs are the biggest stage, and they can add millions to their next contract by having a huge series. The most obvious one is Hossa (Det), just like last year, he will have a huge playoffs with upcoming free agency. Kessel (Bos), Krejci (Bos), Staal (Pit), Gionta (NJ) are all also upcoming free agents to the best of my knowledge.

5hift, I need to have my picks in by noon Wed., I am going with your knowledge as the basis for my 18 players. For the past three years it has been cash down the drain (Habs fan is the reason), using your analysis can do no harm. I win "you will get a taste" as they say on The Sopranos.

[5hift]

As buh buh pointed out, anyone can make a pick of a big name player. Its all in the sleepers picked in the later rounds in determining the winner.

Here's the sleeper list for those still drafting

Det - Filppula
SJ - Moen
Chi - Sharp (May be able to snag late due to recent injuries and Flames bias)
Van - Sundin (should slide with some of the emerging Nucks)
St Louis - McDonald (tied for league lead in goals back when Ducks went all the way - playing hot on a surging blues team no one gives a chance - good value pick - any one of the blues young guns could blow up though)
Ana - Christensen (plays on L1 btwn Perry and Getzlaf )
NJ - Martin (if you guys have to field several D men)
Phi - Brierre (yeah he's soft, struggling, but he has 53 points in 57 playoff games)
Car - Cole and BrindAmour are pretty much what you would call clutch playoff performers

[88CRX]

I had the 10th pick in a pool with 10 people :banghead: worse pick for a playoff pool. All the big Detroit, Boston, SJ & Pitts guys were all gone.

My team:

Iginla
Marleau
Setoguchi
Boyle
Ryder
Lucic
Holmstrom
Cole
Phaneuf
Bergeron
Cheechoo
Samsonov

[krazykhoja]

Originally posted by 88CRX
I had the 10th pick in a pool with 10 people :banghead: worse pick for a playoff pool. All the big Detroit, Boston, SJ & Pitts guys were all gone.

My team:

Marleau


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Marleau was injured?

[88CRX]

Originally posted by krazykhoja


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Marleau was injured?

He's banged up maybe... he'll play.

Sharks were just resting him the last couple games I think.

[01RedDX]

.

[buh_buh]

Another guy that'll go late, and I suspect will play, Paul Kariya. That is if you want to go with somebody from St. Louis. I don't want to give away all my secrets, but like I said before, Langenbrunner is a huge playoff performer, and Kronwall who's paired with Lidstrom right now.

[dino_martini]

Originally posted by 01RedDX


No D's in your pool?

We dont have rules about having to pick certain positions. Semenov is a Defensemen though.

[dino_martini]

Alright I'm going to bump this thread again. My hockey pool is doing their draft tonight.

Any last minute tips? I usually pick a couple Flames but since they aren't in it this year I think I will probably jump on the Chicago bandwagon in the west and Pittsburgh out east.