WHO declares swine flu pandemic

[Xaroxantu Zero]

Well, this isn't good.

http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/images/news/photos/2009/06/11/who-flu-cp-w6851328.jpg


Swine flu, or H1N1 influenza, has reached the pandemic level, the World Health Organization warned Thursday — marking the first time it has called a global flu epidemic in 41 years.

"The world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century," WHO's director-general, Margaret Chan, announced in Geneva after consulting health experts in an emergency meeting.

"The virus is now unstoppable. However, we do not expect to see a sudden and dramatic jump in the number of severe and fatal infections," she added.
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/11/swine-flu-virus-who-pandemic.html

[sh0ko]

the WHO states

Increasing the alert to Phase 6 does not mean that the disease is deadlier or more dangerous than before, just that it has spread to more countries.

[rage2]

Even CBC is stealing my aspect ratios. 16:9. :(

This whole swine flu is fucking bullshit. It's just a flu and is causing widespread panic and inconvienence for everyone. I'm going to be flying the next few weekends, odds are, it'll fuck me over.

[Spoons]

Like I said in another thread...

So last week guys.

[freshprince1]

doesn't the regular flu kill exponentially more people every year than the Swine Flu?

[eglove]

Originally posted by freshprince1
doesn't the regular flu kill exponentially more people every year than the Swine Flu?

IIRC yes.

[ZenOps]

The good old Spanish Flu of 1918 took about six months before it became widespread enough to do real damage. The first cases were actually mild and very sporadic, just like now. Flus seem to hit in two "waves" the initial outbreak, and then the pandemic where it just goes unstoppably viral everywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Two months after that, it was basically over. 50 million or so dead out of a billion or so (5% mortality rate.)

Extrapolating for today - the 2009 swine flu should hit hardest in late August of this year and if its the same 5% mortality on now 6.7 billion people, the final tally potential might be upwards of 330 million dead before Xmas.

Which is why this is so serious. There is no other natural disaster that comes close to this, a hurricane damage potential is pathetic by comparison.

[TomcoPDR]

Originally posted by rage2
Even CBC is stealing my aspect ratios. 16:9. :(

This whole swine flu is fucking bullshit. It's just a flu and is causing widespread panic and inconvienence for everyone. I'm going to be flying the next few weekends, odds are, it'll fuck me over.

Will you please be able to stay in your house 7 days before interacting with general public???

[sh0ko]

im more scared of sars than i am this

[Redlyne_mr2]

Originally posted by rage2
Even CBC is stealing my aspect ratios. 16:9. :(

This whole swine flu is fucking bullshit. It's just a flu and is causing widespread panic and inconvienence for everyone. I'm going to be flying the next few weekends, odds are, it'll fuck me over.

:werd:

[mac70135]

we're fucked

[ZorroAMG]

Wow...scary!! LOL

.....what, a handful of people die and it's a pandemic but malaria kills thousands a day and it's no big woop...


:rofl: :rofl:

[lint]

a pandemic doesn't have anything to do with number of deaths. it has to do with how widespread and infectious an illness is

[Nissanaddict]

Originally posted by rage2


This whole swine flu is fucking bullshit.

Yep.

I couldn't find many figures, but I found one that flu deaths among US women (so that leads you to believe that it's approximately in 1/2 the USA's population) the death toll was in 5 figures. It also wasn't just toddlers/children. Women of all ages, 10s of thousands died of the flu, in the USA! With the swine flu, it's not even strong enough to kill most anything older than a toddler in America (I use them as an example due to the level of heatlh care in comparison to say, Mexico). The level of our health care is similar to that of the USA, and the accessibility kicks the CRAP out of what the Americans get. We'll be fine.

[kolumbo69]

Where's my bubble, your all going to die!!!!!!!!!!

[2EFNFAST]

Originally posted by Nissanaddict

The level of our health care is similar to that of the USA, and the accessibility kicks the CRAP out of what the Americans get. We'll be fine.

That's where you're wrong - our health system ONLY works if you arn't sick. As soon as you're sick, forget about it.

Now if 5% or 10% of the population came down with this, we're fvcked because of how horrible our system is.

[Spoons]

Originally posted by ZenOps
The good old Spanish Flu of 1918 took about six months before it became widespread enough to do real damage. The first cases were actually mild and very sporadic, just like now. Flus seem to hit in two "waves" the initial outbreak, and then the pandemic where it just goes unstoppably viral everywhere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Two months after that, it was basically over. 50 million or so dead out of a billion or so (5% mortality rate.)

Extrapolating for today - the 2009 swine flu should hit hardest in late August of this year and if its the same 5% mortality on now 6.7 billion people, the final tally potential might be upwards of 330 million dead before Xmas.

Which is why this is so serious. There is no other natural disaster that comes close to this, a hurricane damage potential is pathetic by comparison.

Are you kidding? I can list a few things why you are horribly wrong.

1) 1918 - Life expectancy before that was around 40 years. Lot less than now.

2) Sewage and all sorts of things that carried disease were not controlled. It was a lot dirtier then.

3) They had no way of controlling the dead. The disease spread so fast because when someone died from it, they just left them in mass graves.

You have to be pretty ignorant to consider the fact of another disaster like 1918 is ever going to happen again. It was a pandemic because there was no way of controlling it, as well as health care wasn't around, and standard of living was low.

Last time I checked its 2009, and our standard of living is pretty good.

[Sugarphreak]

W.H.O. cares!

[ZenOps]

Originally posted by Spoons


Are you kidding? I can list a few things why you are horribly wrong.

1) 1918 - Life expectancy before that was around 40 years. Lot less than now.

2) Sewage and all sorts of things that carried disease were not controlled. It was a lot dirtier then.

3) They had no way of controlling the dead. The disease spread so fast because when someone died from it, they just left them in mass graves.

You have to be pretty ignorant to consider the fact of another disaster like 1918 is ever going to happen again. It was a pandemic because there was no way of controlling it, as well as health care wasn't around, and standard of living was low.

Last time I checked its 2009, and our standard of living is pretty good.

Germs don't care about standard of living. If first world nations have 30% of current staff unable to work because of flu-like symptoms, then it could be a real problem.

In 1918, there were not the superdense cities like we have today, which you can think of as food in a petri dish. In many ways - this flu has the potential to be *worse* than the 1918. Healthcare means nothing when 30% of the population is bedridden. Flu does not slow down or speed up any less, we all must breathe the air - and once it goes pandemic - no amount of handwashing or flamethrower sanitization will stop it (Many of the 50 million corpses were incinerated to try and prevent spread)

Airplane travel will probably ensure that more like 85% of the population will be infected, instead of the maybe 50% back in 1918, when week long ship travel was more common.

It is inevitable to anyone living in a major city that you WILL get this flu unless you have made drastic preparations like a bubble tent. It is unavoidable now, thats what level 6 signifies.

While only 50 million died in 1918, a great percentage that survived had lingering health issues, including http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica and others like permanent pulmonary scarring (much like a TB scar)

50 million people becoming intensive care sick in two months would be logistically impossible to handle, even in first world nations. The 1 billion people who live on less than $1 a day (2009) might be hit extremely hard - if just for the idea that they may not be able to feed themselves if the workforce is down for that period of time.

I believe the Calgary health authority has 300 beds set aside for just such an emergency.

[Pollywog]

I was stuck at the Osaka Airport IN MY AIRPLANE for over 3 and a half hours (after my 12 hour flight) as they quarantined my brother and 3 other men to the back of the plane (suspected to be infected with swine flu) - as well as myself and every other passenger seated around those individuals to the front of the plane.

Complete pain in the ass, more people die of pretty much every other serious illness out there. I feel bad for anyone flying.

[theken]

world war pig.

[Spoons]

Originally posted by ZenOps


Germs don't care about standard of living. If first world nations have 30% of current staff unable to work because of flu-like symptoms, then it could be a real problem.

In 1918, there were not the superdense cities like we have today, which you can think of as food in a petri dish. In many ways - this flu has the potential to be *worse* than the 1918. Healthcare means nothing when 30% of the population is bedridden. Flu does not slow down or speed up any less, we all must breathe the air - and once it goes pandemic - no amount of handwashing or flamethrower sanitization will stop it (Many of the 50 million corpses were incinerated to try and prevent spread)

Airplane travel will probably ensure that more like 85% of the population will be infected, instead of the maybe 50% back in 1918, when week long ship travel was more common.

It is inevitable to anyone living in a major city that you WILL get this flu unless you have made drastic preparations like a bubble tent. It is unavoidable now, thats what level 6 signifies.

While only 50 million died in 1918, a great percentage that survived had lingering health issues, including http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica and others like permanent pulmonary scarring (much like a TB scar)

50 million people becoming intensive care sick in two months would be logistically impossible to handle, even in first world nations. The 1 billion people who live on less than $1 a day (2009) might be hit extremely hard - if just for the idea that they may not be able to feed themselves if the workforce is down for that period of time.

I believe the Calgary health authority has 300 beds set aside for just such an emergency.

Again, you can copy paste your way... but germs do care about the standard of living. When the standard of living is higher, the chances of you dieing from such virus' are much lower.

Lets list off the virus' that were "supposed" to be the next 1918 off the top of my head:
-SARS
-Bird Flu
-Swine Flu
Honestly I am sure there is more, do I have time? No.

Is swine flu any different? Maybe. But look at where it hits the hardest... COUNTRIES WITH A LOW STANDARD OF LIVING. Cases up here? Bed ridden for a few days. Holy shit this is deadly.

I'm done talking on the subject... You can go back to fear mongering if you wish.

[ricosuave]

Pfft would be good to thin the herd a little...

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by Spoons


Again, you can copy paste your way... but germs do care about the standard of living. When the standard of living is higher, the chances of you dieing from such virus' are much lower.

Lets list off the virus' that were "supposed" to be the next 1918 off the top of my head:
-SARS
-Bird Flu
-Swine Flu
Honestly I am sure there is more, do I have time? No.

Is swine flu any different? Maybe. But look at where it hits the hardest... COUNTRIES WITH A LOW STANDARD OF LIVING. Cases up here? Bed ridden for a few days. Holy shit this is deadly.

I'm done talking on the subject... You can go back to fear mongering if you wish.

I think prior scares have left you extremely jaded - do you understand that flu virus' mutate? The contagiousness of swine flu is something which has been unprecedented in the last ~50 years. This could mutate into something severe.

While ZenOps example of 1918 might not be realistic due to modern medicine, the idea is still valid.

I am happy we don't have beyond.ca as health officials. Spoons, what motive would the WHO have to signify this pandemic as something more than what it is?

[Eleanor]

Originally posted by Neil4Speed
Spoons, what motive would the WHO have to signify this pandemic as something more than what it is? Incite mass panic which inevitably leads to mass consumerism which will in turn stimulate the recessed global economy? :dunno:

The WHO is a UN organization, meaning most of their funding comes from the United States government, which gets its funding from corporate taxes including those from large pharmaceutical companies which stand to make a large profit in selling immunization shots.

The WHO is calling it a pandemic because they're drug company overlords told them to.

Seems simple enough to me :dunno:

[suen17]

Originally posted by Spoons


Again, you can copy paste your way... but germs do care about the standard of living. When the standard of living is higher, the chances of you dieing from such virus' are much lower.

Lets list off the virus' that were "supposed" to be the next 1918 off the top of my head:
[b]-SARS
-Bird Flu
-Swine Flu
Honestly I am sure there is more, do I have time? No.

What's somewhat significantly different about H1N1 is that it's a culmination of both avian, swine AND human influenza strains. Simply put, this strain underwent a statistically rare triple recombination (remember genetics?) and thus its epidemiological traits are much more complicated than what we've encountered so far. Mutations don't increase the probability of emergence of the virus, but it will increase the number of infecteds in the event of an outbreak. We should be scared about how widespread the virus is simply because of the potential number of people that are likely to be infected.


Is swine flu any different? Maybe. But look at where it hits the hardest... COUNTRIES WITH A LOW STANDARD OF LIVING. Cases up here? Bed ridden for a few days. Holy shit this is deadly.


Actually, countries with low standards of living are no more susceptible to swine flu than countries with "high" standards. We have similarly high numbers of close social gatherings (i.e. mass transit, theaters, malls, office buildings) than do slums.

Although what the WHO publishes should be taken with a grain of salt, there's no reason to question tens of thousands of epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists - especially when you see the number of peer-reviewed articles out there. The great majority of those journals are independent of both the WHO, NIH, UN, etc. Know what you're dealing with before brushing it off as a scare.

Mexico and China have done a stand up job of quarantining and minimizing the spread of the virus. North Americans have never had to deal with HIV/AIDS, cholera, smallpox, diphtheria, etc. Those epidemics are handled the same way H1N1 has been dealt with - why can't we just take what the WHO feeds us because maybe they've done this several times before.

[adam c]

while some of you joke about H1N1 some people do think of it as more than just something... i have a 1 month old at home and if someone close gets it and I or the gf or someone gets in contact with them and spreads it to my daughter she will most likely die according to all the reports

[ZenOps]

Well. The last time that the world officially classified a bug as a pandemic was 41 years ago - so its not like many of us have ever seen one.

This would be the eight flu pandemic in recorded history.

[Rat Fink]

.

[CUG]

Originally posted by rage2
Even CBC is stealing my aspect ratios. 16:9. :(

This whole swine flu is fucking bullshit. It's just a flu and is causing widespread panic and inconvienence for everyone. I'm going to be flying the next few weekends, odds are, it'll fuck me over. I just did a tour through the middle east and germany, I don't think I'm sick anyways :/

[blackteg2]

Total media circus. They latch on to shit like this, get wet and milk it for all its worth. We will all be fine. Life goes on.

[CUG]

Actually, I take my last post back. I've been blasting diarrhea for the last 6 hours. I think I even have a fissure now.

[rage2]

Originally posted by CUG
Actually, I take my last post back. I've been blasting diarrhea for the last 6 hours. I think I even have a fissure now.
That's nothing... try eating Indian for 8 weeks straight and see what happens! :rofl:

[CUG]

Originally posted by rage2

That's nothing... try eating Indian for 8 weeks straight and see what happens! :rofl: I don't think I could hang. Pizza Hut and McDicks was the healthiest shit I could find. I'm not even kidding, I think I'm now at the airplane food. Not sure.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by Spoons


Are you kidding? I can list a few things why you are horribly wrong.

1) 1918 - Life expectancy before that was around 40 years. Lot less than now.

2) Sewage and all sorts of things that carried disease were not controlled. It was a lot dirtier then.

3) They had no way of controlling the dead. The disease spread so fast because when someone died from it, they just left them in mass graves.

You have to be pretty ignorant to consider the fact of another disaster like 1918 is ever going to happen again. It was a pandemic because there was no way of controlling it, as well as health care wasn't around, and standard of living was low.

Last time I checked its 2009, and our standard of living is pretty good.

your first point is exagerated, i agree the average life expectancy was low, but it was no where near 40 in 1918. more like 60.

your second and third points are exactly the same.

another aspect to look at for us nationally is the fact that it is summer time. viruses can live a LOT longer when its warm outside.

[XylathaneGTR]

Originally posted by Spoons


Again, you can copy paste your way... but germs do care about the standard of living. When the standard of living is higher, the chances of you dieing from such virus' are much lower.

Lets list off the virus' that were "supposed" to be the next 1918 off the top of my head:
-SARS
-Bird Flu
-Swine Flu
Honestly I am sure there is more, do I have time? No.

Is swine flu any different? Maybe. But look at where it hits the hardest... COUNTRIES WITH A LOW STANDARD OF LIVING. Cases up here? Bed ridden for a few days. Holy shit this is deadly.

I'm done talking on the subject... You can go back to fear mongering if you wish.

There's a few big points you're missing here, Spoons.

SwineFlu H1N1 is a mutated reassortment of known flu strains endemic to multiple species. It transmits quite easily and posses the ability to mutate further and due to the fact that it's a composition of other strains...we really don't have much of a defence against it.
Its genetic structure (as in, it's of the H1N1 variation) does mean that TamiFlu is somewhat effective and we may be able to generate vaccinations for it (GSK reported they'll have one ready in 4 or so months, with another company stating just a day or two ago that they have a vaccination ready for trials) but who knows how effective they'll be.

I recall reading that the Spanish Flu when through three phases or stages that followed the seasons. It showed up, some people got sick, it went dormant and next season, it had mutated and was a lot worse. In the end, it had turned into a pretty nasty little virus. Unfortunately, Swine Flu has the capacity to do the same and it is that knowledge that has "all them edumacated people in the know about things" worried.

You're right, we're quite a bit better off than the population was in 1918, but you've got to be quite ignorant to think that a fatal flu pandemic cannot or will not happen again. Fortunately, most of those who've died thus far were either at age extremes or had other health complications (heart problems, Pneumonia) but to brush it off right now as "no big deal, shit's not gonna happen again, brah" is not the safest plan of action. Declaring swine flu a pandemic will at least allow some level of preparation should the virus get worse...which it probably will.

[kertejud2]

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/6848/1216560181575hd0.jpg