Official Short-term Investments Thread [Archive] - Page 101 - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

Z_Fan

02-06-2009, 02:00 PM

So oil settled at $40.17.

Not much will happen now that it has settled. So, if you're watching HOU thinking anything is gonna happen, my guess is it will just stay pretty flat for the rest of the trading day.

...

I'm keeping my HOU over the weekend.

I'm usually a little more on top of big swings like that. Jumping at the opportunity to sell. But again, my optimism sometimes gets the best of me.

The reality is, when you have a bunch of money suddenly on the table, you need to reach out and grab it as fast as you possibly can. Then spend at least AN HOUR watching the market and make a decision on whether to buy back in or not at a lower price. If it goes up, well, at least you have your money. If it goes down, you can buy more.

Which is why you should always take profit when you can..

max_boost

02-06-2009, 02:14 PM

Nice. I need the S&P500 and TSX to start giving back its gains. I'm up to 500 shares on HSD and HXD. Still have ammo left in case this rally keeps up into next week and then the pending doom.......:devil:

civic_rida

02-06-2009, 02:42 PM

I think you gotta have enough shares just so you can sell them off at different times

Z_Fan

02-06-2009, 02:47 PM

Well, for me if I would have sold my HOU, even at $7.85 or something, which there was plenty of opportunity to do, I'd be $2500.00 ahead on the day in HOU.

Missed opportunity. Makes you wonder what the rally was all about if it just falls back to settle a buck below the previous settle.

Or perhaps it is a sign of hope for next week.

Not sure.
:nut:

SilverRex

02-06-2009, 02:52 PM

^

did I recommended you to sell, because if oil was to make a 3+ dollar move within the hour, it would crash right after. it's happened as many times as I have seen it in the last few weeks.

anyways gold at 910, critical area. I need it to drop dam it. silver at 13 is too high for me to get in , please at least 12.40

dj_honda

02-06-2009, 02:59 PM

since oil hadn't been doing much this week, i thought i would go get breakfast with the gf instead of watch the markets. what a mistake. :( LOL. some nice opportunities today...i hope it carries on until next week.

today would be day 1 of the 3 day rollover correct?

max_boost

02-06-2009, 03:04 PM

I'm still waiting for gold to pullback too. Going short before going long :D

The thing with oil is, +$1, then you hope for +$2 etc. and before you know it, it's falling!

dj_hondaTuesday is day 1 of the 3 day rollover.

max_boost

02-06-2009, 04:22 PM

Just noticed the front and near month has a 15% contango!

$40 vs $46! :eek:

Not sure what that really means as I haven't paid a lot of attention to April's contract but I did notice that they move relatively to each other (for today at least).

I like HOD a lot for next if the 15% contango is still in place. :D

yoda124

02-06-2009, 04:49 PM

bought gold today ....$950 next week?

natejj

02-06-2009, 06:37 PM

I want to short the TSX... can anyone suggest a good ETF for doing this?

ckangarloo

02-06-2009, 07:52 PM

^ HXD is what you are looking for.

Check out this list: I am looking at the dividend ETFs for my TFSA personally.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/etfs-listed-in-canada.html

aklalani

02-06-2009, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by dj_honda
since oil hadn't been doing much this week, i thought i would go get breakfast with the gf instead of watch the markets. what a mistake. :( LOL. some nice opportunities today...i hope it carries on until next week.

today would be day 1 of the 3 day rollover correct?

must have been a long ass breakfast. :poosie:

max_boost

02-06-2009, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by ckangarloo
^ HXD is what you are looking for.

Check out this list: I am looking at the dividend ETFs for my TFSA personally.

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/etfs-listed-in-canada.html

:werd: on HXD

HSD if you want to short the S&P500

I have 500 shares on both. Made $0 on it so far. For everyday I've owned it, the markets have been up. Go figure right. I should have known though, all this stimulus talk is going to get the markets going.

Anyway, unlike HOU/HOD, you don't have to worry about rollover, contango etc. Spread your investment over 3 positions just in case it goes the opposite way or set your stops. The markets have to come back down, this rally is just pure non-sense. I think the people are buying because they think this is the bottom, ummm....NO. Not so fast alright. The second wave is coming, just watch for it! :werd:

badlivertt

02-07-2009, 12:42 PM

i wish i had the stones to short entire indexes. loaded up on DIA (tracks dow) in october and now my cash is just stuck there. i so wish i had the time (and intestinal fortitude) to play this up and down game you folks play.

anyone have an opinion on REITs? is it still too early to pick some up? i'm looking to get out of VET.UN into some other dividend stock for the TFSA.

SilverRex

02-08-2009, 07:08 PM

its on sunday, but gold is moving, and so far 920 wins again, and so did 910 as gold is under 910 at 904, hopefully this means the bears won and we are looking at 890 and target of 870 again coming up.

its going to get very interesting here, since the trendline that held at 800 is coming up to 850, the 200 day moving average is also at 850. I would love gold to at least touch 850, however the longer gold stays above 900, the more and more chance that 870 may just be the final stop (double bottom?) before taking up higher.

For my own strategy, I will begin starting my position at 870s, then 850 and my dream trade at 800.

for silver, its looking like 10.00 or 10.50 will never happen now. even 11.50 is looking dim, since silver was way oversold last year, it is catching up every chance it gets, when gold gain 6%, silver gained 12+%, what does that tell you?

while its coming off its recent high at 13.20, (now at 13.0) I wil begin opening position at around 12.50-60, I dont think we will see 11s anymore unless gold can hit 800 again.

Either way, for the next 12-18 months. its buy every significant dips on the precious metals.

SAM: if you are dead serious in picking up gold investment if it dips to 850, I highly recommend you trade the spot forex, nothing can produce the amount gains with a marginized account, of course you have to have confidence that gold isnt going to go back to 700 if you want to maximize your gains. I'm not suggesting you put all your hard earn money like you did with HOU/HOD to play gold, but even just buying 1000 dollars spot gold and have 9000 dollar as buffer, you will see a very good return if gold was to just go up 100 dollars. I'll even suggest silver spot instead, on Jan 15 when gold went from 800 to 929, its only a 15.6% gain, but silver on the other hand went from 10.33 to 13.20 a 27.7%.

when I recommeded to buy silver around 10-10.50 in January, had you put 1000 dollars in there with a stop below 10 dollars and take your profit at 13.20 you would have made 10906.00, about a 11 times return. of course the lower silver was, the less risk, because it was near the bottom. Now at 13, you have to wait, but if it starts getting back down to 11.50-12.50, it would be another good pick up

civic_rida

02-08-2009, 08:21 PM

^ great post

max_boost

02-08-2009, 08:47 PM

I don't know if I want to get into margins man. I'm going to be less greedy and just take profits where I can. It wasn't long ago where I was content with 10% annual gains. I would be way ahead of the game if I wasn't constantly trying to hit a home run every time.

Anyway, right now half my money is tied up on HSD/HXD/HGD. I hope I don't have to put anymore into those stocks haha I'm waiting for that big pullback but it's not happening. Maybe this week? Who knows.

As for buying Gold on big dips, HBU seem like a safe bet on those big dips.

SilverRex

02-09-2009, 07:44 AM

Monday.

Very interesting week indeed.

none the less, its all technical lol,

let see the DOW having some momentum and chart wise it looks good to make a run towards 8700, while it would probablly get rejected the 1st time it gets here but going forward I think it will break above to the upside and head for 10250 DOW which of course will be met with great force.

Although it is just so hard to believe how the market could go up from here given the condition and outlook, but dont forget the stock market tends to lead the market even well before the economy full recovers. While anything could happen and see 6500 DOW is always possible, but technically its looking like a triple bottom is forming, even if it goes lower, I think it will first go up first before heading back down (assuming even more trouble times ahead) So either way its going up from here.

As for oil, support at 39-40 oil is very strong, but the sell off above 42 is similarly big as well. technically while over all picture the divergence and heavy oversold condition is slowly telling everyone it is about to make a retracement back to 60-70 area. However it is also forming a decending wedge that is bearish and could take out the 40 dollar barrier. therefore the conclusion I have to say is, oil at the moment does feel dangerous to trade. I would wiat for a better formation or trend direction to reveal itself before jumping in. (unless of course you just want to take advantage of the 40-42 area while it last. And is exacly what it is doing, it basically bounced off 40 this morning and looks to move back 42-43

Gold and silver, my biggest bets here. its crashing right now to 894 as I write this, after see it breakdown below 910 I was all so happy last night because that means we will see 890, and most likely 860-970.

now the tricky part is, you can say gold has a few footings one at 870 and one at 850, with a small risk at 800. So how do you play this? I would spread out my position. begin a light one around 860-870 and a solid one between 850-860 and if it ever gets to 800-810 well then I'll double it up here.

And if you are playing silver, while technically supports are at 12.50, 11.50 and 10.50, what is happening with silver is, its gaining huge grounds against gold, after being sold off more than gold in 08, its nearly moving up twice as fast. when silver was to hit 11.50 early last week, it only goto about 11.64 and took off from there. And it did not even drop much after gold tanked 30 dollars. therefore my feeling to this is sometimes you just cannot wait for the perfect setup. And so for my self, I will be placing solid orders at 12.70, 11.70 and 10.70 while splitting up the 12.70 order into two (one at 12.70 and one at 12.50)

Good luck

LBG

02-09-2009, 09:04 AM

hey,

i'm trying to buy some oil.to but and its taking forever to fill my order! its hit .15 billon times and my order entry still does not get filled!! is there a cap on the amount oh shares you buy or somthing? or is it just slow? thx

LBG

02-09-2009, 09:18 AM

never now its getting partially filled =) thanks

e36bmw///

02-09-2009, 09:19 AM

The_Rural_Juror

02-09-2009, 09:47 AM

Originally posted by LBG
hey,

i'm trying to buy some oil.to but and its taking forever to fill my order! its hit .15 billon times and my order entry still does not get filled!! is there a cap on the amount oh shares you buy or somthing? or is it just slow? thx

Aren't they getting delisted today?

SilverRex

02-09-2009, 10:06 AM

here is an interesting quote

"The 1970s saw an average gold to silver ratio of around 25:1 and fell below 20:1 when silver rose to over $45/oz nominally. Thus it seems very likely that in the coming years, silver may well return to its long term historical average of closer to 15:1. This means that silver is likely to continue to outperform even gold in the coming weeks and months. Silver may return to its recent highs of over $20/oz in 2009 due to very strong supply demand fundamentals. It is also important to note that the CFTC investigation into artificial manipulation and suppression of the silver market could potentially lead to a massive short squeeze"

That is what I like to hear, now if only I can get in silver in the 11s again

bigbadboss101

02-09-2009, 10:20 AM

Hey Z_Fan,

Still hold BAC?

Z_Fan

02-09-2009, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Hey Z_Fan,

Still hold BAC?

Yes.

I did lose my shares, as I detailed in that previous post. However, I figured there would be a sell off at the end of Friday. So, I put in a buy order at 0.05 lower than I stopped out at, and got the fill just before close Friday.

So yeah, I still have my shares which I purchased at $4.53 / $4.54.

BAC doing well, I've got stops set.

LBG

02-09-2009, 10:36 AM

oil.to is getting delisted?......

SilverRex

02-09-2009, 10:46 AM

silver update.

silver has been on a tear, who knows what is happening behind the scene, usually silver lags behind gold but when it catches up like this, its a good indication that gold is about to take another run up, but the question is when.

while initially my orders are at 12.70, 11.70 and 10.70 what I find now is that based on how silver's been performing lately, at this rate, I dont even think we will ever see under 11 dollar price. Even 11.70 is far fetch unless of course gold can actually dip back to 800.

There fore now I have revised my orders to the following.

half position at 12.80
half position at 12.55

one full position at 11.80
one full position at 11.50

And if it does ever (some shocking reason) that we shall see 10.50 again, then I will load it up like there is no tomorrow.

gold out look remains to be seen at first take at 870, and 850, with risk to 808, but the longer gold hangs above 890, then the 870 and 850 support will probablly come together around 860, making 860 an ideal long entry. The fire work will begin once 931 is broken to the upside.

update: gold is finally resuming its swoon, now at 892, level to watch is 870-880 area. a strong bounce once it reaches there.

Feeball

02-09-2009, 11:16 AM

Which broker and platform are you guys using?

4DoorGTZ

02-09-2009, 11:16 AM

:banghead: Took a quick buck after buying HOD for 25.75 and selling for $26.50, it now approaches 28, grrr.

bigbadboss101

02-09-2009, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by 4DoorGTZ
:banghead: Took a quick buck after buying HOD for 25.75 and selling for $26.50, it now approaches 28, grrr.

It's $28 now. Any $ gained is good :-)

max_boost

02-09-2009, 12:01 PM

Oil is nuts. It scares me so I'm staying away. Too volatile :poosie:

Turning my focus to gold now. Another $20-$30 pullback and I'm going long. Thanks for your analysis on gold SilverRex, I'll take up HBU at those price points. Slow and steady for me now.

Still going short on the markets. Too early to go long imo. Market are due for another huge correction after the stimulus shit is over.

Z_Fan

02-09-2009, 12:07 PM

Got stopped out of BAC again at $6.75.

And of course it just dipped to that and went right back up to $6.90. :poosie:

Oh well. Still $2.20 USD per share profit.

Wish I would have bought twice as much!!! :dunno:

max_boost

02-09-2009, 12:10 PM

Fuck I wanted to get into HOD at $26 this morning but couldn't do it. Was worried oil was going to have a psycho day with the stimulus pending lol :rofl:

Anyway, what is up Agrium (AGU) and Potash (POT)? Just watching it go up day by day. Fertilizer stocks going to lead the charge when the markets rebound?

djayz

02-09-2009, 12:27 PM

Originally posted by max_boost

Turning my focus to gold now. Another $20-$30 pullback and I'm going long. Thanks for your analysis on gold SilverRex, I'll take up HBU at those price points. Slow and steady for me now.

Might I suggest HGU instead of HBU, much higher volumes and cheaper per share value :thumbsup:

HGU is what I'll be picking up as soon as I exit my HOU position.

max_boost

02-09-2009, 12:34 PM

I'm holding HGD right now. It's looking good today so far.

I can't buy HGU yet because I'm shorting the markets. Gold spot is my long investment. Slow and steady :D

DJ_NAV

02-09-2009, 12:42 PM

Bought HOD at 26.. sold at 28.50... order placed for 27 now.

SilverRex

02-09-2009, 12:52 PM

Sam: read this

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1234204363.php

I agree with the article that its is more and more likely that we have seen the bottom for the markets.

even if by the odd chance market suddenly shit the beds to 6500 DOW for example. what do you think is the best way to play the market?

wait for 6500 and if it doesnt get there, you will be shut out for ever. Or start positioning yourself right now.

I dont have as many funds as you, and so I can only concentrate my cash with gold/silver. I wish I have the extra money to lay out a good sounding portfolio as the stock market right now is cheap enough

that answers why potesh is just going up and up and higher, because the market is ready to trend upward. I already posted a comparison chart a week ago between 2002/03 and 08/09, its making an exact same movement chart wise, and look what happen it just took off from there. I'm not trying to scare the bears here, no doubt the market will take some time to recover, but like I Said before, stock market usually rally well before the economy recovers. and so should consider this, the oil spike on friday was on massive vol if anyone cares.

Z_Fan

02-09-2009, 12:54 PM

Damn oil. Next time it goes to $42 I'm dumping all my shares of HOU. :poosie:

DJ_NAV

02-09-2009, 01:23 PM

holy shit.. should have not sold HOD at 28.5!! its climbing crazy!

bigbadboss101

02-09-2009, 01:26 PM

More than $5 interday price difference!! I bought and sold twice today. May be buying opp on HOU and HGU coming up.

max_boost

02-09-2009, 01:31 PM

Oh fuck I am getting into HOU right now!

Please bounce back! LOL

SilverRex

02-09-2009, 01:39 PM

^

based on the trendline, it looks like oil could at least dip to 39 or slightly below it.

of course the roll over HOU have started so i dont want to put in the exact figure, but assuming it hasnt, we are looking at a low of 6.63 of HOU of course anything below 40 oil is good anyways.

and HGU, I think gold stock would be a good pick up if it can get back under 12 dollars.

Z_Fan

02-09-2009, 01:42 PM

I bought more shares of HOU this morning at $7.26 ...

Should have waited a while longer obviously...

Fuck. :dunno:

max_boost

02-09-2009, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by SilverRex
Sam: read this

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1234204363.php

I agree with the article that its is more and more likely that we have seen the bottom for the markets.

even if by the odd chance market suddenly shit the beds to 6500 DOW for example. what do you think is the best way to play the market?

wait for 6500 and if it doesnt get there, you will be shut out for ever. Or start positioning yourself right now.

I dont have as many funds as you, and so I can only concentrate my cash with gold/silver. I wish I have the extra money to lay out a good sounding portfolio as the stock market right now is cheap enough

that answers why potesh is just going up and up and higher, because the market is ready to trend upward. I already posted a comparison chart a week ago between 2002/03 and 08/09, its making an exact same movement chart wise, and look what happen it just took off from there. I'm not trying to scare the bears here, no doubt the market will take some time to recover, but like I Said before, stock market usually rally well before the economy recovers. and so should consider this, the oil spike on friday was on massive vol if anyone cares.

Yeah I'm well aware of the similarities but again, back in 02, I don't recall a real estate/banking/global crisis and for that reason plus surging unemployment , low consumer confidence etc. there's no reason for me to believe things have bottomed. There will be more bankruptcies to come that will rattle the market. Consumers will be frighten when they realize that those companies that were previously deemed 'too big to fail', the government will have to let them fail.

BUT, alright, if the above doesn't happen, even if we say 8500 TSX and 8000DJIA is the bottom, there will be plenty of opportunity to get back in at those ranges. The markets aren't going to be moving imo!

I firmly believe that we are going to at least re-visit the lows November lows of 7400 DJIA and 7700 TSX. Even at that point I stand to profit nicely 20-25% from my HSD and HXD.

With that said, I COMPLETELY UNDERSTAND where you are coming from and appreciate your advice. We all know if we go long, 5-10 years from now, track in the index, you will make money but as traders, we live in the present, we take our trading lives one day at a time lol

Lastly, no matter how high the stock markets get, 11,000-15,000, it won't be able to match the returns of gold. Way too much money is being printed right now. Too many stimulus plans all over the place. So I would say you are mighty safe heavily invested in the metals.

I like gold!

http://www.alanjohns.fsnet.co.uk/goldmember/goldmember.jpg

SilverRex

02-09-2009, 03:31 PM

^

anyways another good read I came upon this morning, has anyone ever read the CFTC reports every month?

These are commercial and speculator interest of how much long and short contracts are being traded on the comex.

now what is interesting is that 30-40% of the short interest are held by 2-3 US banks which is why so many are saying how gold/silver has always been manipulated.

Now if everyone recall back in August, the report showed a record setting short interest of about 111k contract on the comex gold. All held by the 2-3 or fewer banks, and guess what happened, gold dropped 200 dollars in October and is one of the primary reason why it couldnt get over 930 dollars admist massive fear and invesment pouring into the yellow metal.

Now in my history of forex trading since 2001, I have gone to appreciate this report but to a certain extend meaning, the timing hasnt always been perfect. While the extreme long and short position held by these banks certainly show a warning sign, no one knows when the market will move on it.

So for us bulls, we need to be aware of this, because the latest evidence shows that the same banks who crippled the gold price back in Oct is doing it again, and on Feb3, it had increased its short position by 30%. That means, another big drop is in the cards. The only question is when, and where.

I myself, would love to take a guess. with gold slowly coming off its peak, I can only see the area around 850-870 to provide a very strong support and this will go hand in hand when the stim pack is being released and a good short term rally begins. But most are still hessitating and arnt convince that the market has bottom out, therefore short term wise, gold/silver will contiune to rise after putting down their correction.

This will eventually lead to a break out of gold to the upside and the initial break above 931 will trigger momementum that will immediately push gold to 950-960 area. Eventually I think we will see gold reaching and testing its high at around 1000-1033.

Then the short interest and manipulation begins, and from there I believe gold will take a sharp nose dive back to the 930 area or even 850, this will be seen as a sign that people are slowly getting out the metal sector and back into the stock market because everyone by then will have seen that the market had indeed put in a bottom and everyone jumps back to the fry afraid of missing the boat.

Now recovery will take time, and even the market is up 30% from its bottom, it does not have enough leg to sustain it, therefore, the market will move side way ever so slowly. It will not retest its bottom and it will not move high either, the impatient and worry starts to set back in and this is when gold again will be stabalized at around 850 area that will slowly swing back to its double top peak at around 1030.

By now, its year end and what more could you ask for by seeing the world gold trade aggreement to sell gold come to an end in late september and just like the OCt-Jan advance we saw last year. gold will make another run towards the new year of 2011 and will be setting a new hight into 1200-1300. By now I am sure the banks will again increase their short holdings and gold will once again get over sold but this time the new found support is at 1000.

;) that is how I envision it

max_boost

02-09-2009, 05:42 PM

I plan to dollar cost average my HBU every time gold dips $20+. I plan to do this until gold hits $2000. In my life time I want to see $2000 gold! :bigpimp:

Anyway, I'm holding 3000 shares of HOU at $6.98 right now and hoping Geithner's bank bailout proposal tomorrow can rally up the oil price +$2 tomorrow morning so I can GTFO of HOU at $7.70. :rofl:

So far I've noticed that the March and April future are moving closely to each other. It won't be until next week when the March contract expires on Friday that we will know if there will be a hard sell off as traders close out their positions.

15% contango is still in place. http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Will April oil futures try to make another attempt at $50? I have a lowball offer of $22 in place for HOD if that happens.

Jim Rome99

02-09-2009, 06:30 PM

What do you guys think of Canadian Oilsands Trust?

symbol: cos.un.to

I'm thinking of putting my RRSPs into this stock.

aklalani

02-09-2009, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Jim Rome99
What do you guys think of Canadian Oilsands Trust?

symbol: cos.un.to

I'm thinking of putting my RRSPs into this stock.

too high right now. i just sold at $21 on friday. itll dip below $20 for sure in the upcoming months. id prob buy around15-17ish

Jim Rome99

02-09-2009, 06:52 PM

Thanks for the reply. I almost pulled the trigger last week when the price was $19.75/share.

What do I need to buy stock? I have a chequing, savings, and RRSP account with Royal. I have all my money right now in the RBC "money market". The guy told me that although I wouldn't get any kind of interest rate on it, I don't risk losing my money.

Any suggestions as to what I should put my money into? GICs maybe? We're talking roughly 15k.

max_boost

02-09-2009, 07:11 PM

^

Do you have a self direct RRSP through RBC Direct Investing? If so you just go in there and buy it. Otherwise you have to get it set up.

As for the $15K, it depends what your appetite for risk is. How much do you know about investing?

Jim Rome99

02-09-2009, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by max_boost
^

Do you have a self direct RRSP through RBC Direct Investing? If so you just go in there and buy it. Otherwise you have to get it set up.

As for the $15K, it depends what your appetite for risk is. How much do you know about investing?

Very very little. My appetite for risk is quite low.

I am not signed up to the RBC Direct Investing thing. I see it availabe in my online banking but I need to open an account.

Is it easy to manage? What kind of fees am I looking at? Specifically, if I was to purchase 600-700 shares of that COS at $20 a pop? Is it cost effective to buy and sell in a short period of time?

max_boost

02-09-2009, 07:22 PM

GIC's=100% safe, no risk, what are the rates? 4%? Decent.

Equity mutual funds: higher risk, higher returns and lots of short term volatility but if you have an investment time frame of 10-15 years, then buy into a fund that tracks the S&P/TSX60, markets will rebound and you'll get a nice returns over time. With the index at 9000, it's a nice entry point compared to those who bought in at 13-14,000 hehe

Personally, I'm still calling for 6500-7000 TSX lol but given my track record, you don't have to worry about that. :rofl:

max_boost

02-09-2009, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by Jim Rome99

Very very little. My appetite for risk is quite low.

I am not signed up to the RBC Direct Investing thing. I see it availabe in my online banking but I need to open an account.

Is it easy to manage? What kind of fees am I looking at? Specifically, if I was to purchase 600-700 shares of that COS at $20 a pop? Is it cost effective to buy and sell in a short period of time?

Stick to GIC's then bro. Nothing wrong with a guaranteed 4% return.

My mom used to be all about GIC's until I convinced her to buy equities instead, I told her in the long run she would get better returns. Now that's true except we ran into this fucking global recession which annihilated anyone and everyone's portfolio. Now we are left with just averaging down lol

As for buying COS, yeah it's pretty simple. You can buy up to 1000 shares of a stock and it'll cost $28.95. Any more than 1000 shares is $0.03/share. RBC will charge you a fee every time you and buy sell.

You can buy and sell at any time. Now here's the hard part, when should you buy? How long should you hold? and when should you sell? :rofl:

Jim Rome99

02-09-2009, 07:40 PM

Thanks for taking the time to type up a response. I'm going to sign up and play around with it a bit before I go making any big investments.

max_boost

02-09-2009, 07:56 PM

^

There's a lot to learn and absorb. Don't rush into any major decisions and don't let emotions get in the way.

Now onto the rest of the scheduled programming,

Stock Market to Fall At Least Another 40%

A few more days of strength before the bear strikes back!

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8772.html

Inzane

02-09-2009, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I bought more shares of HOU this morning at $7.26 ...

Should have waited a while longer obviously...

Fuck. :dunno:

If you were going to buy more HOU at that price, why didn't you just KEEP the shares you had last week instead of selling?

ExtraSlow

02-09-2009, 09:46 PM

One thing to watch out for as a small time investor is that the fees can really eat your lunch, even if you are making smart trades.

Let's say you have $5000 worth of COS.UN, and you buy at the current price of $22. You can afford 225 shares after your $30 fee for buying.
Now if the price goes up to $24, a gain of 9%
But after the fees for selling, you are left with $5370, a 7.4% gain.
Fees can make a substantial difference for the small time trader. And most small time traders don't trade often enough to warrant "active trader" discounts on fees.

it's worth it to shop around for the fees and features of online brokerages.

Check out Surviscor - Ratings of Canadian Online Discount Brokerages (http://www.surviscor.com/Reviews/OnlineDiscountBrokerage.aspx) for some independent ratings.

That being said, I think a well informed and patient investor can do as well or better than the majority of the retail advisers that you'll find at banks and investment firms like nesbit Burns. I run my own RRSP, and I'm happier with it now than when I had some rather high priced help with it.

Z_Fan

02-09-2009, 10:18 PM

Originally posted by Inzane

If you were going to buy more HOU at that price, why didn't you just KEEP the shares you had last week instead of selling?

Here is why.

Lets assume I did nothing. My 2000 HOU is worth $14,020 today (approx.) I got $14,400. I'd be $380 behind if I did nothing. Woot! Already ahead of the game.

So yeah, initially Sold 2000 Shares at 7.10
Bought 1000 BAC at 4.53 USD , Sold 1000 BAC today at 6.75 USD = $2220.00 USD x 1.2 = $2664.00 profit
Left the rest sit in cash that night

Bought 1200 HOU at 6.76 next day AM dip, sold it today at 7.77.
$1.01/share profit * 1200 shares = $1212.00 profit.

Bought back my 1200 HOU at 7.26 (est)
Closed at 7.00, lost $312

Still have lots of cash sitting from BAC.

So. If I did nothing, I'd be $380 behind. Instead, I am ahead that $380 + $2664 + $1212 - $312 or $3944.00 with the cash that I freed up from HOU. In 3 days of trading.

Hope that's a good answer.

If not, then the simple answer is 27.3% earned in 3 days trading using 14,400 capital. I'll take 27.3% in 3 days. All opportunity created because I dumped HOU to free up cash. I only wish I had done one of two things.

1) Sold ALL my HOU, which would have been another 2500 shares.

2) Even if I didn't do 1, if I would have put ALL the HOU money into BAC at 4.53...well, fuck I don't even want to do that math because it'll make me depressed.

Jlude

02-09-2009, 10:27 PM

What trading accounts are you guys using? Personal bank accounts or....

I lurk this thread hard and have been playing the market a bit over the last few months...(max_boost's fault, he introduced me to HOU + HOD)

Just wondering which site might be easiest to use/user friendly. Now I'm just going through TD...

Inzane

02-09-2009, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by Z_Fan

Here is why.

Lets assume I did nothing. My 2000 HOU is worth $14,020 today (approx.) I got $14,400. I'd be $380 behind if I did nothing. Woot! Already ahead of the game.

So yeah, initially Sold 2000 Shares at 7.10
Bought 1000 BAC at 4.53 USD , Sold 1000 BAC today at 6.75 USD = $2220.00 USD x 1.2 = $2664.00 profit
Left the rest sit in cash that night

Bought 1200 HOU at 6.76 next day AM dip, sold it today at 7.77.
$1.01/share profit * 1200 shares = $1212.00 profit.

Bought back my 1200 HOU at 7.26 (est)
Closed at 7.00, lost $312

Still have lots of cash sitting from BAC.

So. If I did nothing, I'd be $380 behind. Instead, I am ahead that $380 + $2664 + $1212 - $312 or $3944.00 with the cash that I freed up from HOU. In 3 days of trading.

Hope that's a good answer.

If not, then the simple answer is 27.3% earned in 3 days trading using 14,400 capital. I'll take 27.3% in 3 days. All opportunity created because I dumped HOU to free up cash. I only wish I had done one of two things.

1) Sold ALL my HOU, which would have been another 2500 shares.

2) Even if I didn't do 1, if I would have put ALL the HOU money into BAC at 4.53...well, fuck I don't even want to do that math because it'll make me depressed.

Alright, alright.... Now I get it. :facepalm: And now I'm jealous. :rofl:

civic_rida

02-09-2009, 11:11 PM

Remember hou rollover is going to happen soon.
46 dollar oil might = approx. 7 dollar hou soon.

Z_Fan

02-09-2009, 11:41 PM

^ That's another reason I was easily happy to sell HOU. I'm actually considering selling all my HOU tomorrow if there is even a small jump upwards. Because I'm worried about this particular rollover...

Z_Fan

02-09-2009, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by Inzane
Alright, alright.... Now I get it. :facepalm: And now I'm jealous. :rofl:

Don't be. I've lost so much money it's comical.

Those numbers are also missing the fact that I lost $1440 by bailing on HOU at $7.10 when I bought it higher. So you should subtract that from the $3944 if you wanted my actual end result from all this...

But the $3944 and 27.3% is still an accurate result as to what I did with the remaining money after I incurred that $1440 loss on HOU.

Oh, and now that I am out of BAC, I suspect stimulus plans to be announced and BAC to shoot to $8 tomorrow!

max_boost

02-10-2009, 12:12 AM

Obama press conference on right now. I have it PVR'd.

Anyway, yeah tomorrow is day 1 of rollover. You'll notice that Mar/April follow each other closely.....for now. So if tomorrow oil is up, April contract will follow it.

We might not see any major movements on April's oil futures until the March contract expires next Friday (20th). Then all the attention turns towards April. Remains to be seen how wide the contango is. Right now it's at 15%.

I'm praying hard for a big oil rally tomorrow because of bank bailout plan by Treasury Tim. I know in the long run, $350billion won't do shit all because what they need is $1trillion+ but for my sake, just rally the oil price so I can gtfo of HOU.

Actually I hope oil goes fucking crazy, maybe +$5 if possible. Then I can back into HOD around $23 in anticipation for Wednesday's inventory count. Fuck yeah. It's all planned out. Just have it go my way just one time so I know I'm not the worst trader in the world. Please. :rofl: :facepalm:

max_boost

02-10-2009, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by Z_Fan

Don't be. I've lost so much money it's comical.

Those numbers are also missing the fact that I lost $1440 by bailing on HOU at $7.10 when I bought it higher. So you should subtract that from the $3944 if you wanted my actual end result from all this...

But the $3944 and 27.3% is still an accurate result as to what I did with the remaining money after I incurred that $1440 loss on HOU.

Oh, and now that I am out of BAC, I suspect stimulus plans to be announced and BAC to shoot to $8 tomorrow!

That's a good run dude! Congrats man. Yeah I have a sneaky feeling about BAC tomorrow man. :eek:

SilverRex

02-10-2009, 07:27 AM

LEt see isnt oil just becoming too predictable these days, buy 40 or below and sell 42 or above? Then so it continues, for those that are already in late yesterday. I'll have my stop set below 39.50 and look for oil to trying to make another run towards 42 today.

gold is making another run towards 910 again, and that is exactly what I think is all we see, but there is still small upside risk to 920, I continue to believe the 910/920 area will big good resistance to push gold back down further. I will not be concern unless gold can creep back above 920.

silver bounced off 12.80 area nicely, though this was my initial setup last night, my strong entry remains to be at 12.55 and 11.80.

Let see what the market will give us today

good luck

edit: gold broke thru 910 while its under heavy fighting in this area, if it gets anywhere close to 920 I will short again for the quick 20-30 dollars

edit: oil is having a difficult time around 41, and chart wise if it forms a bearish hammer right below the 200 day on the 1hour, then this could be bearish for the next few hours. I may be looking to cash profit as I got in 7.00 late yesterday

edit: hmm oil did form a bearish hammer on the 1 hour chart under the 200 day, even though price is back up to 41.50, I hope it stays up there for another 20 mins so I can gtf out

SilverRex

02-10-2009, 08:32 AM

phew, im out of HOU at 7.50 at open

bigbadboss101

02-10-2009, 08:32 AM

TD acting up on my sell order.

max_boost

02-10-2009, 08:36 AM

Sold half at $7.50

Getting greedy again. Got a stop in place at $7.40 just in case though :rofl:

SilverRex

02-10-2009, 08:37 AM

^

what I find is that TD tends to take your premarket order in the buffer, so as long as price was trading at your sell order at open, there is a good chance they will honor it and it just takes time.

I placed a sell order at 7.50 and nothing happen even when it open at 7.50 for a mere second, then dropped to 7.45, but few mins later I got my order

max_boost

02-10-2009, 08:43 AM

Maybe it's just me but I can't stand TD or HSBC trader site? :dunno:

RBC FTW! lol

max_boost

02-10-2009, 08:44 AM

Hey SR, you think oil is going to go back down today? Time to buy some HOD? lol

Or do you think Treasury Tim is going to rally the markets during his speech at 9am our time? Hard to say eh? hehe

e36bmw///

02-10-2009, 09:00 AM

max_boost

02-10-2009, 09:09 AM

http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

You'll notice both contracts move closely to each other. It won't be until closer to March expiration (Fri/20th) that you'll see the two contracts possibly move in different directions.

Rollover and contract expiry are two different things just so you know. Contract expiry is for those trading actual oil future contracts on the NYMEX.

BTW, where can you see live feeds of the April oil futures? :dunno:

4DoorGTZ

02-10-2009, 09:13 AM

http://www.nymex.com/nxd_overview.aspx

Really good little charting package for futures. All you have to do to be free for life is get a new email addy every 2 weeks and re-sign up.

SilverRex

02-10-2009, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by max_boost
Hey SR, you think oil is going to go back down today? Time to buy some HOD? lol

Or do you think Treasury Tim is going to rally the markets during his speech at 9am our time? Hard to say eh? hehe

It's difficult to say, because sometimes the market rallies on rumor and sell on news. if one already has a position (for example your holding HOU still with a stop limit) then you can try to ride the market if it indeed does take off.)

but for those on the side line, it is quite dangerous, market could go either way but my gut tells me it will be up.

as for oil, you can tell oil is range bound 39-42. And because the roll over is upon us, I'll say the moment march expires, april price at 46-47 is way too high, its right at the peak of the 50 day moving average and initial sentiment is down, the good thing about oil is that the 2 week price of 39-42 really is trying to tell the whole world 40 dollar is a good solid support.

Now what will be difficult to gaguge is, because oil is still waiting to rally to 60-70 to complete its retracement from the sharp fall, if indeed the market puts in a huge rally, this could lift oil suddenly pass 50 and onto 60 in a heart beat. So this would making shorting oil somewhat scary as well.

I'm just going to sit on the side line and wait it out. as for gold, im shorting it at 910, as I believe the when the market rallies, and the banks so will money flow away from the yellow metal. I'll short more if it gets to 920 with a stop above 931. Initial target 891. Since 1 hour gold chart, all EMA has crossed over each other indicating sell on rallies.

edit: I failed to mention that if oil was to hit 46.50 now, that would be the place to jump all in hod because no doube it is met with heavy resistance like we did at 48 and 50, BUT, the big but, since oil held very well at 40, that means, when april price comes in, technically, if it remains above 46.50 for more than a day, I'll say this is a technical breakout and suddenly we are looking at 50-55 oil, and it wont be long when 50 oil will be our new base just like what it did at 40.

Your going to ask but 50 oil is too high, I agree, right now it is, but the key is if we hit 50 again, that isnt the same as when we first hit 50, because technically it means price has broken the down trend coming down from 50, to 48 and to 46, and this is bullishness. Your going to ask again, but we dont make any gains with roll over prices. I agree also, but I come to appreciate even with the roll over inflated prices, somehow technically it still mean something. Remember what happen between dec and jan? after the Jan contract expire and the feb kicked in, price went from 33 to 40, while everyone must be thinking (like you did Max back then) its got to go right back down to 33. The momentum did trigger a quick sell off initially but soon it made a run a 8 dollar run, because technically oil with that 7 dollar lift over the roll over, it formed a bullish hammer on the weekly charts. This drew alot more investor. so now everyone believes the 33 was bottom and the 39-40 dollar is merely a 50-60% retracement of the recent run up. If everyone is thinking up now (technically speaking) then every support level is a buying opportunity.