Official Short-term Investments Thread

[DarthHonda]

holy fuck what the eff is going on??? :banghead:

[civic_rida]

6.87 :poosie:

[civic_rida]

Its my b-day too.

[DarthHonda]

happy birthday lol

[SilverRex]

its already there, 39.10 I see this was the retest low two days ago. perhaps its trying to get there.

[DarthHonda]

fucking Geithner needs to start talking pronto!

[DarthHonda]

Geithner pledges forceful attack on banking crisis; Fed expands key program to $1 trillion


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says the new administration will wage an aggressive two-front battle against the worst financial crisis in seven decades, while the Federal Reserve expands a key lending program to up to $1 trillion.
The efforts are part of the government's major overhaul of the widely criticized financial rescue program.

The Fed says it will expand the size of a key lending program to as much as $1 trillion from $200 billion. The program, which has yet to begin operations, is designed to boost resources for consumer credit and small business loans.

The Fed says the program also is being expanded to cover the troubled commercial real estate market and certain residential mortgages.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.

[SilverRex]

^

is this like another trillion dollars on top of what has already been planned?

[4DoorGTZ]

Yeah, BNN said its in addition to Obama's ~830Billion

[DarthHonda]

this is not the stimulus, from my understanding it's just the FED's own program to get the banks to start lending, but it's upped from 200 billion to 1 trillion

[DarthHonda]

Rex, what do you think is the ceiling today? will we see $40 again?

[SilverRex]

^

technically, its looking good that oil is forming a hammer again but this time to stop the bleeding at the 39 area. if we can hold above 39.50 until pass 10am I think it will look good that it will go up from here (again) but it could take until tomorrow to move when market opens

[DarthHonda]

39.24 as we speak... half an hour to go...:whipped:

[SilverRex]

dam the trillion dollar announcement revitalized gold and it shot up 10 dollars.

[max_boost]

Treasury Tim's words did shit all for the markets. Dow is tanking, TSX to follow suit.

God I was right to average down on my shorts. :bigpimp:

I still have no gold, I need to be patient and for it to pull back!

As for oil, please prove daddy right. Rebound to $42! lol

[Canmorite]

Holy shit that was fantastic :rofl:

[SilverRex]

bring on the gold bears, the 910-920 area is the last fight, if we loose, gold will move higher, im gold bull but im all short right now :D

[civic_rida]

Yea hou is not going anywhere since maxboost bought some .
:banghead:

[DarthHonda]

yeah fucking max always ruin everything :whipped: :guns: :rofl:

[ExtraSlow]

I wonder if we could set up an ETF designed to track double the daily change in max's portfolio?
I'd short it.

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I wonder if we could set up an ETF designed to track double the daily change in max's portfolio?
I'd short it.

I'd be all over that like a fat kid on cake :rofl: :hitit:

[Z_Fan]

Ahahah, it could partially be my fault too. Cuz I bought more HOU this morning at $6.85. So, you get Max_Boost and Z_Fan buying HOU and you've got yourself a double whammy.

[DarthHonda]

damn you Z_Fan, sell sell sell!!! hahaha

[SilverRex]

ok so the chart finally formed, while the hammer isnt as big as the 2 days ago when it dipped below 39, it none the less is till a a hammer, I think the bleeding has stop and oil had put in its bottom for the DAY.

now the question is what level will it test, 40? 41? 42? i am thinking 41

gold I am continue to short, its not time for a breakout yet, the market is due for a rally that will remove some gold onto stocks in the next few weeks.

short gold, but oil for the short term.

edit: BAC under 6 bucks, who's got the guts to buy if it dips to 5 or below

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex

gold I am continue to short, its not time for a breakout yet, the market is due for a rally that will remove some gold onto stocks in the next few weeks.

short gold, but oil for the short term.


For me Gold is more than a speculative day-trade. It’s my family’s safety net. I’ve been slowly accumulating it because there is no doubt in my mind that inflation is going to go through the roof.

IMO we’re only at the beginning of the crisis. This is nothing compared to the mess over the next couple of years. Things move with crazy volatility. Nothing is a smooth curve up or down anymore. When the real crash hits it will be so fast that I don’t want to be the guy stuck without gold at that particular time.

I’m making crazy volatility plays in this market, but when I buy gold, I sock it away and don’t think about it.

[sputnik]

HOU @ 6.66

:devil: :devil:

How low will it go?

I should put in an order at $6.50

[SilverRex]

^

dam oil is making a new low, thats not good. underestimated the sell off. NExt time I ought to remind myself to wait for a stronger buy signal.

i'm just going to use the money I gain this morning as my stop limit cushion to see how low I can hold this lol

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok so the chart finally formed, while the hammer isnt as big as the 2 days ago when it dipped below 39, it none the less is till a a hammer, I think the bleeding has stop and oil had put in its bottom for the DAY.


I hope you're right Rex, I hate trading HOU, but I just can't pull myself away...we need a HOU anonymous or something... :facepalm:

[4DoorGTZ]

Senate approves stimulus 61-37.... maybe now a late lunch rally for hou/oil

[civic_rida]

Hope so or else tons of people on here are going to get owned.

[bigbadboss101]

I have been flipping HOD the past few days. Put in low bids, filled the orders and then sell as oil prices drop from the unsupported rise. The pattern have been occurring the last little while so might as well ride it and earn a few bucks.

This morning I bought/sold HOD twice for decent gains. Did buy HOU at 7.2 and 6.64 today. Not bad though, HOU might break even or be ahead on today!

[max_boost]

You guys followed me in to HOU? Yeah you deserve to get pwned! :rofl:

Anyway, I'm getting out of HOU by days end. Tomorrow's inventory count scares the shit out of me. Markets are rattled right now. We should see things tank over the next few days.

HSD is looking damn good right now hehe

SilverRex, DJIA doesn't look like it's headed for 10,000 anymore does it?;)

Sputnik, should have bought at $6.60

BigMass, :werd: I've been trying to tell anyone and everyone they don't compare the current situation to the great depression for fun, shit's going to get bad now that the stimulus is priced into the markets.

[civic_rida]

I have a sell order at 7.05

[max_boost]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
I have been flipping HOD the past few days. Put in low bids, filled the orders and then sell as oil prices drop from the unsupported rise. The pattern have been occurring the last little while so might as well ride it and earn a few bucks.

This morning I bought/sold HOD twice for decent gains. Did buy HOU at 7.2 and 6.64 today. Not bad though, might break even or be ahead today!

I was looking at HOD today at $26.XX but passed up on it because I was worried about what Treasury Tim was going to say. Only to watch the Dow drop over 100pts by the time he was done lol

[sputnik]

Originally posted by max_boost
Sputnik, should have bought at $6.60

I don't have the stomach or volume to day trade HOU.

[crxboi]

Im new to this whole trading thing, so could someone explain to me what people mean when they say they are going to "short" a stock?

[max_boost]

^^

Definitely not a stock you want to mess around with lol

Now I just want to get out and break even. I have funds on standby for another 3000 shares to average down if oil continues to tank but I would need it to rebound so I can get out!

So boys, my prediction of $30-35 oil this quarter isn't that far off now, is it? lol Just wait for tomorrow, another 7million+crude increase and who knows what that might do.

But please, can oil rebound so I can get out of HOU into HOD!!!

What's the pattern been? 12pm rally? 1pm rally? Now I remember why I stopped trading HOU/HOD for ummm....a few days? lol

[max_boost]

Originally posted by crxboi
Im new to this whole trading thing, so could someone explain to me what people mean when they say they are going to "short" a stock?

Betting on the stock to go down in price.

[crxboi]

Originally posted by max_boost


Betting on the stock to go down in price.

Thanks. I got into HOD this morning at 26.8 and out at 30.5, but I got into HOU at 6.7 and now i jsut want outtttt asap.

[civic_rida]

scared to go for lunch lol

[civic_rida]

The volume today on hou is crazy

[crxboi]

ya no lunch for me. I just want HOU to jump to 7.2 so i can break even.

6.57... 52week low.....

[DJ_NAV]

proven again.. HOU is a fail. Seen that for sooo many days now. You can make money from it, but you are most likely to fail in doing that.

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
proven again.. HOU is a fail. Seen that for sooo many days now. You can make money from it, but you are most likely to fail in doing that.

yea this is true haha. i have made money on every single hod trade except one i think. its like the opposite on hou. i want to get out of it too but it looks like its not going to happen, at least not today seeing as it wont move from between 39.20-38.60

i am going with my gut from now on lol. things were so much happier when i just traded hod.:banghead: :rofl:

[max_boost]

^

Yeah oil is under a lot of pressure now. I should have trusted my gut too. Demise of oil price, death quarter blah blah blah Even if you held on to your HOD and never sold you would be safe as it always came back.

Fuck HOU.
:banghead: :guns:

[civic_rida]

Goin for lunch . Have a bad feeling when i come back hou is gonna be in the 5's

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by crxboi


Thanks. I got into HOD this morning at 26.8 and out at 30.5, but I got into HOU at 6.7 and now i jsut want outtttt asap.
This is the wrong stock to get your education on. Once you do get out, consider staying out for a while.

[DarthHonda]

:facepalm: :guns: :whipped: :banghead: :thumbsdow

[bigbadboss101]

Canadian $ down $2. What's the deal?

[4DoorGTZ]

37.60 :banghead:

[dj_honda]

horrible.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Goin for lunch . Have a bad feeling when i come back hou is gonna be in the 5's

:eek:

[civic_rida]

Holy what a bad day.

[DJ_NAV]

fuck.. i thaught $30 was expensive for HOD, but i guess not.

[crxboi]

woulda been a really good day if i held on to my HOD.

[DarthHonda]

how the fuck can this possibly turn around now? day 2 of the rollover is tomorrow :banghead:

[civic_rida]

It wont

[civic_rida]

Are we in the 5's yet?

[sputnik]

Symbol T Bid Ask Last Change Volume FSI
HOU CA T - 6.32 6.33 6.32 -0.69 48,254,832

[civic_rida]

Im going to try sell half today for a small loss and I will hope for the best for tomorrow.

Has anyone sold hou yet?

[max_boost]

So I averaged down another 3000 shares on HOU.

Average cost is $6.60 right now.

Anywhere near that and I am out.

[SilverRex]

what da you know, oil decides to pick today to finally push to 37 ish.

there goes my gains from yesterday lol..

what you can do is the break down below 39 comes in such a surprise, for those that are stuck, look for oil with a chance to retest that level, before heading even lower.

and for those that decides to buy around 37, then set your stop to even if it does climb back to 39

time to wait for another signal

[civic_rida]

oil isnt going anywhere but down.
On the bright side maybe house prices will come down huge so I can offset my losses.

[sm91]

Best scenario: buy HOU sell when you make a small % profit they buy
HOD... sell HOD then buy HOU with the next fluctuation and so on...


Is that what you guys are all doing? Do you think its a good time for a new guy to jump in at 6.31

[civic_rida]

Cant say we thought this morning was a good time to jump in and look what happened.

[max_boost]

sm91, yeah in theory it's that simple, jump back and forth from HOU and HOD. But I suggest you stay away unless you can stomach the fluctuations.

Fuck man, I knew oil was going to test $30's this quarter but why the hell does it have to do it on the day I decide to buy HOU? I swear to god there are market forces out to get me!

lmao

Hoping for a late late late rally here.


:drama:

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, I'm a little surprised about HOU today. Timing does not bode well with the rollover and ... we start trading oil in the low to mid 40's, and if it drops again to 38's and well, we're all super fucked with how much money we'd lose in that scenario. Though that does seem like what will happen.

I lost $4600+ today on HOU. Wiped all my other good trades away in just a couple of hours.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by max_boost
hoping for a late late late rally here.
:drama:

That won't happen. Once oil settles for the day, it very rarely moves much at all up to market close. It settled at $37.55 and is currently at $37.93 which is actually a fairly big swing after a settle.

In any case, I think we're all fucked on HOU.

:thumbsdow :banghead:

[civic_rida]

Did you sell z-fan?

[DarthHonda]

Z_Fan did you sell and take the loss already? If so I think I'll feel better about tomorrow lol...sorry for your loss :angel:

sm91, my advice is the same as everyone else, don't do it if you can't imagine losing it all in half an hour. If it was as simple as you put it we'd all be rich like max_boost rolling in AMG SLKs :rofl:

[DarthHonda]

tomorrow it'll be 50/50 on March & April for HOU, so let's all hope for a miracle on April...although it's not very optimistic at all right now :cry:

[max_boost]

I'm going to be selling a portion of my HOU so that should help you guys tomorrow.

Fuck HOU!

I'm only trading HOD from now on. Economy is getting worse. Treasury Tim gets a :thumbsdow from pretty much everyone. Oil has nowhere to go but down. 15% contango.

Fuck HOU!

:rofl:

[DarthHonda]

c'mon max, sell them all, help out the little guys :rofl: :clap:

[civic_rida]

hou 5,4,3,2 reverse split

[DarthHonda]

March @ 37.98 , April 44.09 , HOU 6.33 close -->54,754,642 volume :eek:

Hope for the best with the Asians, they're our only hope now to pull it up after-hours :whipped:

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by civic_rida
hou 5,4,3,2 reverse split

that would be the end, just ask the guys who held it last time they did the reverse split :facepalm:

[Z_Fan]

I'm going to see where things go tomorrow before I bother doing anything. The money is already gone IMO. So, basically just have to see where it takes us tomorrow. I have a magic number, and if it gets even close to that, I will probably BAIL on HOU and never look back at it.

If the oil prices want to stay the same month after month, always winding up at around $38-$39, then HOU will continue to trend downwards by a chunk every single month. Which is why it is a real losing stock...and HOD will trend higher and higher.

54M trades today is TRIPLE the number available shares. So, that means that HOU is massively being daytraded. Not many people are holding it for very long, everyone trying to react or guess as to what the market is going to do. A big game of hot potato and no one wants to be stuck holding too many shares at any given time.

Honestly, I can't see oil hitting $35 tomorrow. I'm not surprised it hit $38 today, but dipping in to the $37's was alarming. In any case, hopefully HOU will rebound tomorrow. At some point, you have to pull the pin and cut your losses. I'm just trying to decide where that is for me.

I was out for most of the day today and it cost me big time. I'd likely have already pulled the plug on HOU. Again, not setting a stop loss = EPIC FAIL and ties me in to holding shit for even longer in desperate hopes that it recovers. A dangerous game to play that has cost me tens of thousands of dollars in the past.

Be careful. Protect your ass. It's better to lose $5k than $25k. So, don't be afraid to pull the rip cord if shit is looking overly gloomy.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by DarthHonda
tomorrow it'll be 50/50 on March & April for HOU, so let's all hope for a miracle on April...although it's not very optimistic at all right now :cry:

The two will continue to move in line with each other. It's not looking good at all. SilverRex can attest that the key support area has been broken. Combine that with the surrounding negative sentiment, the skepticism of Treasury Tim's plans, other than OPEC coming out and saying they'll cut 10 million barrels of oil or another stir up in the Middle East, I can see the March futures selling off and re-testing its previous lows. As the March contract tanks, April will most likely follow suit. The contango could get even wider when contract expiry rolls around next Friday.

I sold off half of my HOU today. Basically par what I made earlier this morning. As for tomorrow, I'm hoping oil bounces back so I can get out and switch to HOD and sell that shortly after the inventory report. Oil inventory report is released at 8:30am.

HOU is setting new lows and HOD is setting new highs. Trade with caution.

As for the general markets, I see it continue to sell off. It works out nicely for me. +10% on HSD and +5% on HXD today but it's the HOU/HOD which has me all :nut:

[aklalani]

Originally posted by max_boost


The two will continue to move in line with each other. It's not looking good at all. SilverRex can attest that the key support area has been broken. Combine that with the surrounding negative sentiment, the skepticism of Treasury Tim's plans, other than OPEC coming out and saying they'll cut 10 million barrels of oil or another stir up in the Middle East, I can see the March futures selling off and re-testing its previous lows. As the March contract tanks, April will most likely follow suit. The contango could get even wider when contract expiry rolls around next Friday.

I sold off half of my HOU today. Basically par what I made earlier this morning. As for tomorrow, I'm hoping oil bounces back so I can get out and switch to HOD and sell that shortly after the inventory report. Oil inventory report is released at 8:30am.

HOU is setting new lows and HOD is setting new highs. Trade with caution.

As for the general markets, I see it continue to sell off. It works out nicely for me. +10% on HSD and +5% on HXD today but it's the HOU/HOD which has me all :nut:

hope so. bought 10000 shares of hou today. hoping to dump em tomorrow for whatever profit i can get if any.

[Z_Fan]

What did you get in to HOU at Aklalani?

That's a lot of shares. Do you still have some of your original shares?

[BigMass]

our dollar going down and gold going up. It's about the only bright spot in my financial portfolio right now. Should have gone %100 into gold a year ago when i knew this shit was coming.

Should have also sold my house 1 year ago instead of waiting. My procrastinating probably cost me 200k overall. How's that for stupid losses. It's one thing to just not know and get cought, it's another to talk about it and know it's coming and just being all talk and no action.

[Inzane]

I bought another 1000 HOU at 6.30 today.

Call me stupid but I was hoping to cover my other position at 7.50 from a couple weeks back. D'oh.

[Z_Fan]

I think it is a good idea. I think HOU is going to open with a gap up. And I think ANYONE, and I mean ANYONE who has a chance to get the fuck out of HOU near even because of an average down last minute purchase...they should BAIL as fast as they possibly can.

Solid advice for day traders IMO.

[broken_legs]

Anyone looking at the VIX lately?

The VIX is setting lower highs, and lower lows. It's still super high, but to me the trend is obvious from here. The fear level is going down, thus the markets should be bottoming here.

If you draw a trend line from all the tops on the VIX you see that tomorrow is kind of a key day, if it goes higher, say above 50 then we are breaking the trend. If not, i think it will be rejected again and the volatility will continue to drop leading to some sort of rally in the markets.

I believe we'll see financials rally when more details are slowly released about this new treasury plan, and perhaps we will see oil and other commodities come along for the ride.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/VIX.jpg

[BigMass]

Funny thing is with all the negativity around oil lately, I think oil, along with other commodities, is one of the most fundamentally strong long term investments at this point.

But i know you guys are mostly worried about trading and not investing. Short term, who knows. Might as well go to a Casino if i was going to do that.

[max_boost]

It'll be a few more weeks before the financial rescue plan is revealed. If today's conference was any indication, there's no faith in Treasury Tim lol

The most dangerous of all this is, the banks still have yet to reveal what exactly is on their balance sheets. Now that's fucking scary. We have no idea exactly how much bad debt they have. $1 trillion could just be a drop in the bucket.

There's a lot of time to invest and go long imo. The markets aren't going anywhere for awhile. With that said, everyone should have some sort of gold/precious metals exposure in their portfolio. I'm very bullish on gold and like SilverRex, will be buying every time the gold spot pulls back 2-3%. $1200 gold would be great, $1500 would be OMG, $2000, well I would like to see it in my life time lol

Oil is a safe long term investment, as long as you aren't buying HOU lol The problem with the commodity itself, it's biggest customer is in the midst of a deep recession. It's demand destruction right now. Short of the USD devaluing or Middle East conflicts, oil is going to be stuck in the ranges of $40-50 for the rest of 2009.

Many pages back I was calling for $30 oil this quarter and I still believe in it. HOU is going to trend lower and HOD is going to trend higher. Trade with caution.

Lastly, until the TSX/DJI retest its November lows and go below it, I remain unconvinced that we have reached the bottom. When that happens, I will shift my focus to going long on the index.

[Canmorite]

I want to see what these banks are holding, and how the Fed is handing out money (loaning).

It's interesting how the Fed is owned by the same banks that they're lending too. Bailing themselves out with themselves, and tax payer dollars.

Tax payers don't want to pay for this fucking mess. $9-10 TRILLION and counting :dunno:

[civic_rida]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1043918620090210


HIGHLIGHTS FROM API REPORT (In million barrels): - Crude -1.996 (forecast +3.1) - Distillate +0.853 (forecast -1.5) - Gasoline -2.923 (forecast +0.6)


rally tomorrow?

[aklalani]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
What did you get in to HOU at Aklalani?

That's a lot of shares. Do you still have some of your original shares?

yea man. im sitting at 25000 shares now. hopefully the 10000 from today will be sold tomorrow at my target of $7. i got in today at $6.50

[SilverRex]

ok this is indeeding turning out to be one of the most interesting week EVER.

right now the market shit the bed BUT, whats the deal, could it be a fake? I mean for long investor you just have to screen out the noise and tell yourself, phuck, if this is bottom then its time to load up.

Right now oil in the 37, considering it held around 40 for so long and so well tells me that if the market suddenly Rallies, I think oil will rise sharply

beginning with the inventory numbers. and the finalization of the bailout, if you think again what has change in the last few weeks? not much, other than the fact the market wasnt happy with the details of the bank bailout, but once that is absorbed and people realize, hey money is there, like broken_legs mention, the fear factor is deminishing.

but with your worried, look for oil to pop its head to test the 39 area and get out. or reduce your position. or if your lucky to have gotten at the low, I'll set a stop and see if oil does indeed pick up and go.

as for gold, im sad to see 910 didnt hold, neither did 920, which we are now in a VERY critical zone, if gold gets above 930, it could be serious, meaning, a burst of 20-30 dollars upward. But I think when its too obvious we do the opposit, because if its true that gold short term only can go down from here, then the 926 right now is a gods gift for bears, thus im adding to my short (of course with a tight stop above 931. right now its trying to put in a top, lets hope im forecase is correct. death to gold short term.


edit: gold is moving down moving my stops to break even and see where it goes from there, shorted at 926.

on the oil front, the API report usually ignored by the media, however last week the report did manage to come in close to the EIA data. (7+ million vs 8+ million)

therefore, if the API forecast a drop in crude inventory and this is actually confirmed with the report this morning, then boy, is oil in for a big rally (of course it would fuel it even more if the DOW was to rebound in a big way)

it will be a big day today, because technically if DOw was to move lower, it would set a very bearish tone for another few hundred points, however if the 7800 level is actually a hold, then the only way it can go is up. I hope for a huge day in the market, big drop in gold, big rally in oil, and everyone is happy.

I hope yesterday was simply a way to shake out weak hands from the big players.

[DarthHonda]

I hope you're right Rex, I'm holding my breath for oil big time :werd:

[LBG]

hey question guys, I have shares in oil.to.. what happens when they get "delisted"? should I GTFO? lol thx

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by LBG
hey question guys, I have shares in oil.to.. what happens when they get "delisted"? should I GTFO? lol thx

delisted = value goes to $0.00. Should you get out? why did you buy it initially? where do you think it'll go?

[DarthHonda]

you'll still own the shares, but will have no way to get out, so yeah, GTFO if you can break even or even just a small acceptable loss after your selling commission.

[max_boost]

I'm helping you guys out.

I'm in HOD.

Taking one for the team.

Thank me later.

:drama:

[Nova316]

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Oilexco-Incorporated-LSE-OIL-947391.html

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by Nova316
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Oilexco-Incorporated-LSE-OIL-947391.html

lol death sentence extention for LBG? better GTFO while you can...

[TYMSMNY]

Originally posted by Nova316
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Oilexco-Incorporated-LSE-OIL-947391.html

Guess they are trying to find some other place to list their shares. It might not be completely useless after all!

[DarthHonda]

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm helping you guys out.

I'm in HOD.

Taking one for the team.

Thank me later.

:drama:

YEAHHH I would be forever grateful if oil gets a big rally today. :thumbsup:

[DarthHonda]

oil just shot up 20 cents after max got into HOD :rofl: :nut: