Official Short-term Investments Thread [Archive] - Page 104 - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

Z_Fan

02-12-2009, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by DarthHonda
Sorry to hear that Z_Fan, I don't think I'd be trading right now if I had 2 kids, I'm basically playing with the wedding fund for next July lol, so I still got time.

Oh well, you can blow ALL that money and you'll be better off! Hahahah...

Anyhow...

My grand total loss on HOU is just over $14,000.00 after what I lost this morning.

But that is just a very small portion of what I have lost since I started trading in 2006. I guess the reality is that it is pushing $75,000.00 lost by now. I should probably figure it out some day for fun.

Also, I didn't want to jump to HOD because my luck dictates the second I do, a rally occurs and I lose even more money. Nope, I am watching oil and know if I would have held it a bit longer I'd be able to sell it now for $1k or so more than I did, but that doesn't really matter...I'm happy knowing I'm out and the stress of knowing how much I owe is better than continually watching how much I owe grow. :drama:

sputnik

02-12-2009, 09:36 AM

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I'm happy knowing I'm out and the stress of knowing how much I owe is better than continually watching how much I owe grow. :drama:

Are you day trading on margin?

Z_Fan

02-12-2009, 09:37 AM

Nope.

Effective immediately, I don't day trade at all. :poosie:

ckangarloo

02-12-2009, 09:40 AM

^Frick, that is scary Z.
I think I am going to stick to trading in my TFSA for the next while and learn the craft slowly.

Sorry to hear about your luck with trading.

997TT

02-12-2009, 09:40 AM

Z-fan, i hope things turn around for you.

since Oct, i am down about $40K in realized losses (down $12K in HOU right now which i've yet to realize) ...

I'm not losing money i can't afford to lose ... but working for free is ridiculous. I come to office at 7AM and sit here for 9 hours ... knowing that my income is considerably less than my capital losses.

one day i dream of paying capital gains tax ... one day!!!

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by sputnik

Are you day trading on margin?

yeah I'm not even gonna touch margins with a nine foot pole...:eek:

but I think he was using a LOC, I'm using a HELOC too but I bought my first place in '03 so I have about 40% equity in my house to play with, my LOC is limited to that 40% and I'm only using 3/4 of that right now including what I owe on the house. If I didn't have that much equity I don't think I'd have the balls to day-trade.

Canmorite

02-12-2009, 09:47 AM

Borrowing to invest is fairly similar to margin.

max_boost

02-12-2009, 09:48 AM

HOU really hurt us collectively :(

As for HOD, patience DarthHonda. Even if oil pulls off a rally, it has no legs to stand on and will crumble before your eyes. I am only trading HOD from now on so I don't care for switching back and forth anymore. As long as you didn't throw all your $$$ into in it on one shot, you'll be fine. Like I said, 3 positions is key. Sure you gain less but you also lose less.

The trend is your friend and the trend is going DOWN!

As of right now, stimulus is done. Washington has no fucking clue how to deal with this mess. The people are losing faith day by day. Consumer confidence is low. This is going to drag right across the board. Look at the DJIA, down 2.5% today.

- The U.S is going to contract 2% this year.
- Home prices fall in 88% of US cities.
- Home foreclosures exceeded 250,000 for the 10th straight month.
- Initial jobless claims climbed to over 600K
- That's 3.6million jobs loss since 2007
- US unemployment rate at 7.6% and expected to hit at least 10% before we are done.

The stimulus isn't going to stimulate shit all. Infrastructure projects aren't going up tomorrow. It'll be at least 3-6 months before any digging happens. Until then, expect another 1.5-3million unemployed Americans.

Yeah it's half empty. Yeah I'm a bear. But the fact is, nothing is changing her. The DJIA is going to form a double bottom very soon, just a matter of time before we get to the 6000's.

02-12-2009, 09:49 AM

So honestly, who has actually made any money following the advice from this thread?

max_boost

02-12-2009, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
one day i dream of paying capital gains tax ... one day!!!

Awesome. I'm with you on that one! :thumbsup:

bigbadboss101

02-12-2009, 09:50 AM

We all hope house prices don't deteriorate.

sputnik

02-12-2009, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by max_boost
Yeah it's half empty. Yeah I'm a bear. But the fact is, nothing is changing her.

You aren't a bear. You are a plastic bag on a windy day.

If you were really a bear you wouldn't have been in HOU to begin with.

Why the change in heart? Is your analysis really any more sound than it was over the past couple of weeks where you were a bull?

max_boost

02-12-2009, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by G
So honestly, who has actually made any money following the advice from this thread?

No one. :dunno:

bigbadboss101

02-12-2009, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by G
So honestly, who has actually made any money following the advice from this thread?

One probably made some money here, more so than they have lost by following advice from Stockhouse etc. It's moreso the way the market/economy is than the people, with the exception of couple "pumper" who is no longer here, or is under a different name.

Z_Fan

02-12-2009, 09:52 AM

I think if we all posted up our losses from just the last 3 years of trading, most people who read this thread would realize how dangerous day trading can be.

It might deter someone from making the same mistakes. The fact is, it is much much harder to make money on the market than most people realize.

It's that quick buck that keeps you coming back, even after you've lost some money. So many pump and dump schemes, that are great if you manage to get out in time. But I'm thinking of SKE, PLE, GRW, SNO, RSG and many others. You start losing $10k on each of them and it just adds up in a helluva hurry.

Trading pennies is very very foolish IMO, unless you have insider information. Which, BTW, 89Coupe clearly had inside tips in the past, probably from a promoter of some kind. Because pretty much all his tips from a couple years back were HUGE winners for a very short time, before the pump and dump scheme was over and it tanked. Save for Bronco which was just a good buy and then tanked slowly...not a pump a dump really...

Good luck guys, play carefully.

max_boost

02-12-2009, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
We all hope house prices don't deteriorate.

It's coming! Easily another 10-15% decline this year.

Originally posted by sputnik

You aren't a bear. You are a plastic bag on a windy day.

If you were really a bear you wouldn't have been in HOU to begin with.

Why the change in heart? Is your analysis really any more sound than it was over the past couple of weeks where you were a bull?

It's easy to stand on the side and critique others of their mistakes.

max_boost

02-12-2009, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by bigbadboss101

One probably made some money here, more so than they have lost by following advice from Stockhouse etc. It's moreso the way the market/economy is than the people, with the exception of couple "pumper" who is no longer here, or is under a different name.

Trust me on this one, there are a lot of people reading this thread, laughing at us and rooting for our demise.

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I think if we all posted up our losses from just the last 3 years of trading, most people who read this thread would realize how dangerous day trading can be.

It might deter someone from making the same mistakes. The fact is, it is much much harder to make money on the market than most people realize.

It's that quick buck that keeps you coming back, even after you've lost some money. So many pump and dump schemes, that are great if you manage to get out in time. But I'm thinking of SKE, PLE, GRW, SNO, RSG and many others. You start losing $10k on each of them and it just adds up in a helluva hurry.

Trading pennies is very very foolish IMO, unless you have insider information. Which, BTW, 89Coupe clearly had inside tips in the past, probably from a promoter of some kind. Because pretty much all his tips from a couple years back were HUGE winners for a very short time, before the pump and dump scheme was over and it tanked. Save for Bronco which was just a good buy and then tanked slowly...not a pump a dump really...

Good luck guys, play carefully.

FWIW, markets down near 40% doesn't help......

sputnik

02-12-2009, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by max_boost
It's easy to stand on the side and critique others of their mistakes.

It's also hard to listen to people who actions contradict their advice. Are you as confident that oil will be bearish now as you were that it will be bullish 2 weeks ago?

I admit I am generally risk averse, however I am not critiquing your mistakes rather questioning your new found confidence in the bearish oil market based on your earlier "analysis".

ETFs for many here appear to be nothing more than an expensive game of "heads or tails".

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 10:08 AM

well I only learned about HOU and HOD on here and started trading in January, before that I was day-trading large caps like EnCana and CNQ.

I just pulled all my numbers out and recalculated everything, I have the exact same amount of net worth as I've started out in November, and I've been essentially unemployed for 5 months, so I think I've done better than if I never read this thread. I've basically lived for free since November, and I even went on vacation during Christmas. :bigpimp:

Sure I'm not as rich as I could've been if I didn't make that $6.95 HOU mistake on Monday, but I think all else considered I've done pretty good thanks to people like SilverRex and max_boost :devil:

dj_honda

02-12-2009, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by sputnik

It's also hard to listen to people who actions contradict their advice. Are you as confident that oil will be bearish now as you were that it will be bullish 2 weeks ago?

I admit I am generally risk averse, however I am not critiquing your mistakes rather questioning your new found confidence in the bearish oil market based on your earlier "analysis".

ETFs for many here appear to be nothing more than an expensive game of "heads or tails".

i don't think anybody is coming on here claiming they are investment experts. its just a forum on the internet where people discuss stocks. if someone out there is taking what is said in this thread without performing their own due diligence, they deserve to lose money.

i've made money on stocks suggested here in the past. its harder to pick winners in todays market.

anyways, i think some of you guys, your confidence is just low. i think you shouldn't necessarily stop trading....just revise your gameplan a bit to take the emotion out and always set a strict stoploss. i got owned with this recent downturn for that very reason...i got emotional and wouldn't sell it for a small loss and am now looking at a bigger loss. next time, -10% and im out right away. then again, i'm not risking as much as some of you guys.

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 10:16 AM

^^ dj_honda hit it on the nail. :werd:

Z_Fan

02-12-2009, 10:21 AM

I would take it a step further though, and go as far as saying that there are no experts on the economy. We like to think that there are, but think about all the massively incorrect things very important people have said in the recent past about the economy. About $200 oil. About everything! It's just a big joke. No one knows WTF is going to happen.

And as such, it is very much a roll the dice situation. Absolutely nothing is certain.

And Max_Boost is a bag blowing in the wind. Hahah, very good analogy. BUT, fact is his gut was telling him bear all along, and his uncertainty was showing through, that's all. I'm actually with him, and think we are a long ways away from recovery in the markets. My problem is that I am overly optimistic, and it has cost me greatly. Very naive if I do say so myself.

Oh well, moving on...and keeping my financial health in my hands, not the hands of the market. Probably a very good choice for me.

max_boost

02-12-2009, 10:29 AM

Sputnik
^^

Have you followed every single one of my posts in this thread? Or are you just reading bits and pieces here and there? Go back and read everything man. I started out chasing HOU in December and got burnt and it was then I started reading up on the shit that affects it, contango, backwardation, rollover, futures contracts, geo-political conflict, the economy including everything from unemployment, production, oil inventories, retail sales etc. It wasn't as simple as oh shit, oil is at $35, when oil starts trading at $100, I'm going to be one rich mother fucker. Yeah that part was on me and I own it. If the process were only that simple. That's when I realized with a contango structure, that helps HOD and hurts HOU.

About the same time I understood all that and was reading for hours on hours every night, I realized the actual state of the American economy is when I turned bearish on everything. What changed my assessment? Looking at why oil has continuously fallen over the past 2 months, what's so different today? IMO, things are even worst today than in December. I'm allowed to change my mind right? lol

Any commodity will fluctuate and trading a leveraged fund tracking the intra-day movement of oil is one of the most dangerous ones out there. Yeah I was in and out of HOU recently, but that's just riding the train trying to make a buck.

Ahhh whatever, FWIW, even if I flip flopped, I don't recall anyone being as negative as I have been over the economy and oil in the past few weeks. You know what? Maybe I changed my mind at the right time because the markets are tanking and oil is falling when I started making my claims, even if it was just two weeks ago.

The death quarter continues, death of the oil price, are you guys sick of reading that yet? :rofl:

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 10:38 AM

^^ I had my doubts about your $30 oil claim in January, but after I did my own homework I'm starting to be convinced of your assessment. You've turned me to the dark side max :thumbsdow :nut: :facepalm: :poosie:

max_boost

02-12-2009, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by Z_Fan

And Max_Boost is a bag blowing in the wind. Hahah, very good analogy. BUT, fact is his gut was telling him bear all along, and his uncertainty was showing through, that's all. I'm actually with him, and think we are a long ways away from recovery in the markets. My problem is that I am overly optimistic, and it has cost me greatly. Very naive if I do say so myself.

It's funny because that much can change over the course of a month or a couple weeks.

I was very naive just as short while ago too, oh everything will be fine, oh it's all good, the markets will bounce back etc. And then I opened up my eyes to everything around me. It's a dire situation out there.

My gut did tell me bear but all you mofo's were going bull styles and the technical guys would come out with their graphs etc. calling for a rally. The rally did come too! I felt alone so I would jump, safety in numbers right? lol Only to have the past week basically re-affirm what I initially believed. BTW, just to clarify, I appreciate broken_legs and SilverRex's technical analysis on things, it shows a whole different aspect to the investing game.

Anyhow, it's safe to say I learned more in the past 2 months about stocks/ETF's than I did in all the previous years combined. There's nothing like throwing yourself into the fire and wondering why it's so hot in here?

:drama:

sputnik

02-12-2009, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by max_boost
Have you followed every single one of my posts in this thread? Or are you just reading bits and pieces here and there?

I've been reading this thread since the beginning where your investment strategy was poker and dividend mutual funds.

max_boost

02-12-2009, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by DarthHonda
^^ I had my doubts about your $30 oil claim in January, but after I did my own homework I'm starting to be convinced of your assessment. You've turned me to the dark side max :thumbsdow :nut: :facepalm: :poosie:

Yes. At least one person remembers me calling my shot. Even if I bought some HOU in between! lol :rofl:

Welcome to the dark side bro. We will $30 oil again this quarter before the May rollover.

$60 HOD.

That's my next shot. Fuck you all if I am right. If I'm wrong, I am grateful that I have a place to sleep, a place to work and my AMG to cruise in for the summer. :poosie:

max_boost

02-12-2009, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by sputnik

I've been reading this thread since the beginning where your investment strategy was poker and dividend mutual funds.

:rofl: :facepalm:

Z_Fan

02-12-2009, 10:45 AM

A nice little rally for oil now, good time to BAIL on HOU. :poosie:

bigbadboss101

02-12-2009, 10:48 AM

I need HOU to go up $1 still :rolleyes:

Max and SilverRex, your wives let you do your thing with investments etc without resistance?

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Z_Fan
A nice little rally for oil now, good time to BAIL on HOU. :poosie:

no fucking shit :whipped: about 2 hours too late for me :banghead: :rofl:

$60 HOD by May, I'm waiting for the split :whipped: :bigpimp: :devil:

ckangarloo

02-12-2009, 10:49 AM

^ good question.
My wife only gives me my TFSA to play with. Yes, I am whipped.

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
I need HOU to go up $1 still :rolleyes:

Max and SilverRex, your wives let you do your thing with investments etc without resistance?

I'd bail now if I were you, you'll regret it later if you don't, I felt the exact same way yesterday...

aklalani

02-12-2009, 11:05 AM

GOOOO HOU

bigbadboss101

02-12-2009, 11:30 AM

Chance to bail..

EDIT

I am out of HOU

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 11:31 AM

*sigh*...:drama:

Z_Fan

02-12-2009, 11:45 AM

The rally was predictable. I sold my HOU. A clear sign a rally is coming, right? :poosie:

$2800 less I would have had to pay back if I sold it now as opposed to this AM. Hahha...:poosie:

:dunno:

:banghead:

:thumbsdow

:cry:

:facepalm:

FAIL

sputnik

02-12-2009, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm back into HOD. I'm chasing and holding this bad boy. 1000 shares to start, 2000 shares on standby in case oil decides to rally for some :bullshit: reason.

have you double/triple downed HOD yet?

where do you figure you will get in again?

max_boost

02-12-2009, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
I need HOU to go up $1 still :rolleyes:

Max and SilverRex, your wives let you do your thing with investments etc without resistance?

If HOU goes up $1, I am going to have to take up my 2nd position on HOD lol

Yeah there's some resistance but she has to stand by her man no matter how stupid I get right? Also, considering I am 100% of the household income, I call the shots when it comes to money lol

She'll be a teacher in April so that means I'll have more money to lose in the markets. :rofl:

Well, I have a sneaky feeling about Gold testing $1000 so I just bought some more HBU.

max_boost

02-12-2009, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by sputnik

have you double/triple downed HOD yet?

where do you figure you will get in again?

There's a 20% contango between March and April right now.

2nd position will come when April oil hits $46.

3rd position will come when April oil hits $50.

If April oil can trade and sustain above $50, then I lose.

The_Rural_Juror

02-12-2009, 11:52 AM

New ETF on the exchange today: MBU (Max Boost Bull) and MBD (Max Boost Bear)

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 11:59 AM

I feel the same way Z_Fan, you're not alone lol :werd: :banghead:

SilverRex

02-12-2009, 12:09 PM

gold though I think will move higher, the 950 area that it touched seem to be offering a somewhat a resistance and if the doji on the 1hr is a indication, I think gold will want to come down to test 930 before moving higher.

I will unwind some silver and wait for a lower entry in the 13.

as for oil, it has been beatin down to a pulp, for those that are thinking short, at least wait for oil to have a field day and bounce 2-3 dollars sharly higher then pull your trigger, by going short oil now you risk the short covering starting next week when oil march expires and oil has droped 6-7 bucks is actually quite alot within a matter of 2 1/2 days. so caution

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by max_boost

There's a 20% contango between March and April right now.

2nd position will come when April oil hits $46.

3rd position will come when April oil hits $50.

If April oil can trade and sustain above $50, then I lose.

If oil can sustain $50 and start to move upward, we all win. You can raise menu prices and everyone starts spending like it's 2006 again.

I would gladly take that than a few grand right now, but of course, if the recovery starts after oil hits $25, I wouldn't mind either. I'm already unemployed, so I can't get laid off lol

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by SilverRex

as for oil, it has been beatin down to a pulp, for those that are thinking short, at least wait for oil to have a field day and bounce 2-3 dollars sharly higher then pull your trigger, by going short oil now you risk the short covering starting next week when oil march expires and oil has droped 6-7 bucks is actually quite alot within a matter of 2 1/2 days. so caution

but HOU/HOD will be tracking April starting tomorrow no? how would that work out in your opinion?

max_boost

02-12-2009, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by DarthHonda

but HOU/HOD will be tracking April starting tomorrow no? how would that work out in your opinion?

Right now it's already tracking 75% of April's contract.

SilverRex, the short covering on March contracts should not affect April. It'll either only increase or narrow the contango! If the contango is wider, it only bodes well for HOD as that means oil will more than likely drop.

Who has lives quotes for April's contract? For example, on NYMEX, April is -$0.07 but March is -$1.00

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 12:22 PM

I'm running live quotes on everything:

http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/

it'll track COMEX gold too for you gold bulls out there.

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 12:25 PM

I'm hoping April settles at $41 or lower today, that should bode well for tomorrow :bigpimp:

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 12:27 PM

Volume isn't a huge difference between March & April...only about 53K difference so far...

max_boost

02-12-2009, 12:43 PM

An example of why a wider contango helps HOD.

Case in point, Jan contract closes at $33.87. Feb starts at $42. 25% contango! Feb contract immediately drops to $35 before the threat of OPEC cuts :bullshit: rallied it up to $48 and then on Wed/Jan 7th, a day that will live in infamy for me, oil dropped from $48 to $42 and wiped out $12,000 worth of HOU profits and put me into the red.

Lesson 1: Oil inventory reports. Oil can't break $50.

Feb rollover into March. Oil rallied up to $48 here, citing the reasons of the Israel/Gaza conflict. Well guess what, it couldn't break $50 and dropped from $48 to $41 over the course of Jan25-26th.

Lesson 2: Oil can't break $50 again. There's no reason for it to break $50.

So, are we going to test $50 again this month? Possibly! But OPEC is not credible as they didn't mean their January cuts. Stimulus has come and gone. There's no faith in Treasury Tim. Bank bailouts aren't going to work. Everyone is skeptical.

The mistake we all made was this, we didn't know about the rollover, contango and all the geo-political, economical bullshit that influences oil prices. We believed oil was at the bottom because it dropped over $100 from its peak and could only trend up. That is why we all bought HOU and got fucked. And for some of you, you guys were following my lead. Sorry guys!

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 12:49 PM

yeah max you should split your HOD profits with us small people who got screwed on HOU because of your :bullshit: trades

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

lasthuzzah

02-12-2009, 01:15 PM

Hi! I'm new, but I have been reading in cognito for the past few months.

The ETF's are too wild for me, so I bought something I'm personally interested in. Hotels in Ft Mac! My pick is TR.UN or Temple Reit.

My reasons:
- Best performing Reit last year, trading at a big discount.
- No forced conversion in 2011
-28% YIELD!

I bought it for my TSFA, and I never intend to sell any. I collect $100/interest a month on my 1000 shares.

(Yeah, it's a little bit of an investment compared to you rich guys, but for me it's a nice safe little haven to get collect $100/month tax free). :)

cidley69

02-12-2009, 01:32 PM

Doesn't that sound too good to be true? If the shares are $4.20 each, you invested $4200 and get $1200 back per year?

That would be amazing if true.

lasthuzzah

02-12-2009, 01:44 PM

Hello! Maybe it is too good to be true, but when I did some research, there was alot of 25%+ yield companies. However, only this one appealed to me.

A high yield means it might not be sustainable, so they might cut their dividend, but right now their payout ratio is close to 65%

I'm not suggesting you buy this company, just posting what I bought as a long term investment and not a 5 minute 'investment' :)

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 01:52 PM

that does sound pretty sweet, I just switched my HR.UN over, thanks for the tip lasthuzzah

max_boost

02-12-2009, 02:05 PM

HOD looking good.

FUCK! Why does HOD have to stop tracking March oil tomorrow? Why can't I have a few more days of March oil prices! G-DAMN!

I am so close to $30 and I won't be able to profit from it! lol

There's going to be zero to no movement on April futures until March contract expires on the 20th.

Ahhhhhhhh
:rofl:

civic_rida

02-12-2009, 02:06 PM

Why is it tax free?

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by max_boost
HOD looking good.

FUCK! Why does HOD have to stop tracking March oil tomorrow? Why can't I have a few more days of March oil prices! G-DAMN!

I am so close to $30 and I won't be able to profit from it! lol

There's going to be zero to no movement on April futures until March contract expires on the 20th.

Ahhhhhhhh
:rofl:

at least we can sleep at night now knowing it won't move lol, I haven't slept well in the past week.

Z_Fan

02-12-2009, 02:14 PM

Well, now my sell isn't looking so bad.

Which is why I am out in the first place I guess.

Glad I am out - too much stress, I feel for you guys still holding HOU praying to gods that will not answer.

BUT, I was almost going to do the bounce over to HOD, but then I figured most of the gain was already made on HOD in the previous two days.

Once the next contract comes up, it is more unpredictable, however, I still think if the economy is all paranoid, then oil will continue to flounder.

Good luck guys.

Remember that nice chart I posted for you HOU holders last night. Remember what $33.50 oil looks like? I guess we got a glimpse when it hit $33.55. Oh, and that chart was wrong actually, I did it in excel but made mistakes in calculation. So it's not actually as bad as that post. Hahahha...

Fuck me twice. I made that chart as a joke. Should have known better oil would hit $33 in reality.

ckangarloo

02-12-2009, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by lasthuzzah
Hello! Maybe it is too good to be true, but when I did some research, there was alot of 25%+ yield companies. However, only this one appealed to me.

A high yield means it might not be sustainable, so they might cut their dividend, but right now their payout ratio is close to 65%

I'm not suggesting you buy this company, just posting what I bought as a long term investment and not a 5 minute 'investment' :)

Where do you do your research on REITs?

ExtraSlow

02-12-2009, 02:33 PM

Did TR.UN recent change thier divdend payout? It shows up as $0.40 per year on dividendinvestors.ca, but it's 10c in Jan, as a monthy distribution.

Divdend investors Canada - TR.UN (http://www.dividendinvestors.ca/?symbol=tr.un)

Temple REIT announces January 2009 distribution (http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/January2009/19/c8619.html)

I have been looking for a REIT to get into, this might be that one.

civic_rida

02-12-2009, 02:39 PM

I have peyto (pey.un) they pay 15 cents per share.
Its a natural gas/oil company here in calgary

If and when oil and gas goes up might be a good stock.

lasthuzzah

02-12-2009, 02:41 PM

It's Tax free because it's in my TFSA. It fits perfectly into the sub $5000 limit!

I did my research using TD Waterhouse, forums, and phone calls (shocking! I called their IR people).

They own the majority of hotels in Ft. Mac, if you've ever been in Ft. Mac YOU KNOW the hotels are a different thing there. They are always booked, very expensive, and people basically live there.

So, I got very lucky, someone told me that Temple owns a bunch of hotels in Ft. Mac, and they are very profitable. Last year the price was too high and this year, it's at a big discount, so great timing for me!

They have their hotels booked at 50%+ for 2009, 2010! So even if the Ft. Mac economy is hit very very hard, TR.UN should do just fine.

Please, I'm not saying, run out and buy TR.UN, I was just posting my reasoning of why I bought it.

Also, I see someone used to own HR.UN, and I passed on it because they are so highly leveraged. Once the BOW is built in Calgary, I'm sure they will do great again, but I passed on it in favour of Temple. If it was 'boom' times, I would own HR.UN, but in 'down' times I am happy to collect my 28% dividend.

Sorry for the long post!!

lasthuzzah

02-12-2009, 02:43 PM

Oh, I also bought TD today as it's below its' 52 Week low and I personally think TD is a great company and stock.

37.10 and it seems like I'm up a little bit already. (Only 100 shares, I'm poor ha ha).

sputnik

02-12-2009, 02:46 PM

High yield distributions are soon going to be a thing of the past. Many companies and trusts (especially those in the energy sector) have already been cutting back their dividends.

Don't count on them lasting much longer.

As for TR.UN... its 10 cents

http://cxa.marketwatch.com/tsx/en/market/quote.aspx?symbol=TR.UN&x=11&y=10

DarthHonda

02-12-2009, 02:48 PM

I picked up HR.UN when they announced the BOW...yeah, took a big haircut there...I've completely written it off when it hit $4.xx already so for me to transfer to TR.UN is pretty much a risk-free play for me. :poosie:

lasthuzzah

02-12-2009, 02:51 PM

^ Then I'll take the capital appreciation ha ha!

Either way, win win! What stocks do you own Sputnik? Russian Space shuttle stock? ha ha! :)

Darth; Sorry to hear about the loss on HR.UN. I think it's a good company but sadly, we don't own a part of the company by owning shares. We just own a piece of paper. Hopefully that piece of paper is bought by a 'greater fool' for a greater price in the future.

In the meantime, any company that gives a dividend is also paying you to wait.

Last years tax loss selling was really brutal, I wish I would've bought TR when it was 3.25 as a 1.20 dividend/year is just too tasty! I must be the 'greater' fool in this case, ha ha! :)

civic_rida

02-12-2009, 02:54 PM

He's actually right something is happening in 2011.

lasthuzzah

02-12-2009, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by civic_rida
He's actually right something is happening in 2011.

We can thank the mighty Conservatives for that. In 2011, the income trusts must change house their are structured. The only exemption is REITS. (And who said Mr. Harper is a friend of the west? He screwed the west (energy income trusts) with this change and saved the majority of Reits which are based in the east. Except for TR, so nya to you!).

Sorry to get all political on you guys! But big bad government must stay out of the stock market, every time it doesn't look at what happens! (Look at the US, poor people!) :(

But on a positive note, the market really turned it up at the end and hopefully everyone is making money! Time to go home and stop wasting company time! :)

civic_rida

02-12-2009, 03:01 PM

Dont stocks go up when the distribution is cut though?
Example canadian oil sands

sputnik

02-12-2009, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by lasthuzzah
^ Then I'll take the capital appreciation ha ha!

Either way, win win! What stocks do you own Sputnik? Russian Space shuttle stock? ha ha! :)

My portfolio turned into cash back in June (with the exception of my no-load mutuals and my LIRA account). I'm still waiting before I sink more cash into the equity markets.

Currently I am watching a few stocks in particular.

EnCana (ECA)
TMX Group (X)
Manulife (MFC)
Sunlife (SLF)
Iamgold (IMG) <--- missed it, but will be moving in on this one soon

I am still a bit soft on Real Estate Income Trusts at the moment. I still don't have complete faith in the strength of the market especially on the commercial/industrial side of things. Lease rates in a number of cities are starting to contract and vacancy rates are climbing as well.

sputnik

02-12-2009, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by civic_rida
Dont stocks go up when the distribution is cut though?
Example canadian oil sands

Distributions and stock prices are not always tied together.

Distributions are generally a short term indicator as to the current (and past) health of the income trust (or company) and the unit value is based more on the long term potential. Unit value is also based on market perception and the distribution is based on actual profits.

So if a distribution cut sparks confidence in a trust, it MAY go up, but its not a guarantee.

max_boost

02-12-2009, 03:18 PM

SLF & MFC, interesting day for those stocks but Q4's #'s aren't expected to be good anyway. It's the death quarter lol

In the long run, can't go wrong with any of the large caps. Buy it and let it sit for 10-15years. With that said, the Americans could be treading towards a lost decade like Japan did during the 90's, we'll see.

Anyway, so exactly what are you waiting for sputnik? Are you forecasting the markets to form a double bottom before you commit?

When the above happens, I'll take 1/3 of my funds allocated for the equities and go long on HXU and HSU. I'll save the rest in case there's a lower leg underneath the double bottom. You never know how low it gets but nothing wrong with averaging up either. That's my take. Prepare for the worst but hope for the best.

Canmorite

02-12-2009, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by sputnik
High yield distributions are soon going to be a thing of the past. Many companies and trusts (especially those in the energy sector) have already been cutting back their dividends.

Don't count on them lasting much longer.

Prime example: Auto Canada Income Fund T.ACQ.UN

At $1.85 a share...

Dividend / Yield $1.00 / 54.03%

Proyecto2000

02-12-2009, 11:35 PM

So I have been following this thread for awhile now and I finally opened up an account to try stock trading. I am complety new to this so I was wondering if any of you pro's could give me some tips on how I can avoid losing all of my money :D.

First of all I was wanting to play safe by buying a few shares from Suncor and Talisman, as I hope that these stocks will eventually rise in price. Do you guys think that investing in large oil company's is a pretty good idea at the moment seeing how their stock is at a discount price vs a few months ago?

civic_rida

02-12-2009, 11:41 PM

dont do it you will lose all your money

Chandler_Racing

02-12-2009, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by civic_rida
He's actually right something is happening in 2011.

For the technical guys, are trusts subject to a section 85 rollover (i.e can the assets rollover tax deferred). Or will they will they be considered to be "disposed" of and take a tax hit based on the FMV / UCC when their status changes away from a trust?

I could look it up, but thought someone might know off the top of their head.

SilverRex

02-13-2009, 07:48 AM

Friday,

Im sure we can at least sleep a little btter over the weekend.

Oil, let see, while chart it hasnt rolled over, and yes I know april will not move as much as march, none the less, if March goes up, so does april and if march shits the bed, so will april, just not are the same porportion.

Anyhow, looking at the march price, it seems to have stopped at 33.50, geez what do you know, our previous bottom.

an if price can climb back above 35 on march price , this could move oil 2-3 dollars upwards. just because the selloff has been abit over done lately and in all downtrend, it can also be a healthy retracement back to the 37 dollar area.

not sure how much that will translate for April prices. Best of luck.

As for gold, sell pressure continues but slowly and had bounced off 933, while it didnt quite get to the 929-930, gold could resume its upward pressure, but the 930 area still remains in my books. I'll just add to my position if it gets there.

The hui index will be very very important, you can tell it didnt want to cross over its 320 area (200 day moving average) which will be a buy signal for many funds, the started selling off yesterday but thankfully it recovered siginificantly back to around 317. a break above 320 will be pretty massive indication that gold is about to take off higher. So watch this closely.

SilverRex

02-13-2009, 08:14 AM

gold bugs

heres another read recently

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1234508820.php

its interesting how it can relate gold to war, and the reason for attacking iraq and soon iran.

what if

what if all these years, every world crisis, event, war was indeed because of money, powerful group or what ever the artical calls it controls nearly all the money just does thing according to their will.

I, or we just cant do much about it, another article also mention that you have to change the way you think, I feel for the people who are going to retire, because massive wealth has been wipped out, but the mentality is simply a redistribution of wealth. and it puts it well that are we positioning ourselves to receieve it when it comes around, I Think that means inflation and hard asset will be king in coming years.

oil will be good play (once it finds a bottom)
wheat, soybean, corn is good too making HAU on my radar screen.
even housing will make a rebound in due time because anything that rides on inflation should be part of everyone's investment.

WIth the powerful manipulation, I will not be surprise gold will have its ups and downs, we are enjoying a good rally for gold, but it wont be long when suddenly gold dips 100-200 dollars and we are like wtf? but i will not be scared. any dip is just another gift to firm up my position.

Now here is a very important thing that happened. According to the article it suggested backwardation happened on a few days this month. And I remember it happening back in early decemeber as well. The last time you saw this happened was in the 1980. You just have to ask yourself, does this really mean something coming up soon.

because of all future contracts, price always trade higher than the front month but yet it was backwards, the front month was trading higher than the future months. Everyone or expert says this is a indication of a bullish run coming up. While some say it means the comex is soon to default.

Either way I think gold is getting more and more bullish, especially after getting back above 930, it immediately attracted all the technical gurus that invest purely on buy signals.

but the one thing that I read and I Dont know if it will ever happen is can the US gov decide to change the rule of the game once more by making gold ownership illegal once again?

remember the CFTC report that shows in feb, the 3 major bank holdings of gold increased their short position contract by 30%, larger then the august short position back in 08 which eventually led to a fall of 200 dollar gold price. And if march is such a key month according to the article, then something could happen in the next 30 days. Could gold make another run to 1000 and getting shot down by a 150 dollars soon after wards? or will gold suddenly get pull down to 800?

Just remember gold for the long haul there is no question, but be prepare for big dips. And dont be afraid. look what happened when gold went to 681, fear is opportunity, and opportunity translate to profit.

:nut:

sputnik

02-13-2009, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by SilverRex
Anyhow, looking at the march price, it seems to have stopped at 33.50, geez what do you know, our previous bottom.

an if price can climb back above 35 on march price , this could move oil 2-3 dollars upwards. just because the selloff has been abit over done lately and in all downtrend, it can also be a healthy retracement back to the 37 dollar area.

not sure how much that will translate for April prices. Best of luck.

Flip a coin.

One side HOU, the other side HOD.

max_boost

02-13-2009, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by sputnik

Flip a coin.

One side HOU, the other side HOD.

:rofl:

This isn't baccarat son.

bigbadboss101

02-13-2009, 09:22 AM

So should I be looking at the CLJ9 prices ? CLH9 up $1 but looks like HOU/HOD is trading according to April??

max_boost

02-13-2009, 09:38 AM

^
Yep.

HOU/HOD is fully rolled over to the April contract today. There won't be much movement until Monday 23rd. You guys can sleep well until then.

I'll be buying some gold and also looking at agricultural stocks too. Agrium is looking really good. I want to buy it but there's another mass sell off coming on the TSX & DJIA and I don't want to get caught lol

SilverRex

02-13-2009, 10:03 AM

this is it, I think gold/silver is about to resume the uptrend

for 3 weeks silver has never given up more than 50 cents, and it has seen dropped about 50 cents off its 13.70s high to about 13.27 I think.

gold while 930 would have been perfect, the 932 low Could be the support, we are just so close.

Time to ride this to 1000 and silver to 15 then wait for a big pull back

if you read my post eariler, I do believe a big pull back is in the works but we just dont know when, and if last year's history is any indication then gold has legs until march before any significant drop

max_boost

02-13-2009, 10:09 AM

The plan is to sell at $1000 gold, take my 15% on HBU and running for cover. Seeing how it operates the opposite of my decisions 80% of the time, you can expect to see gold in the $1100 range. :rofl:

Anyway, what are April crude futures looking like? March is rallying quite nicely. Short covering? HOD would have gotten murdered if we were still trading the March contract. Maybe $33 is as low as it's going to get haha

SilverRex

02-13-2009, 10:12 AM

right now stick with gold/silver

I think oil will eventually reveal it self with a very convincing technical breakout or the trendline that formed at 50, 48, and soon probablly 45-46, will continue to get push down the moment it gets broken then its time to jump in and hold

I see 80 dollar in 2010 and this year will hover around 27-50 area depending how low the market can go.

this gives me more than enough time to trade and focus on the yellow stuff

of course if you just cant get away from the oil addiction, then either buy if April contract can dip to low 30s, (I believe 27 is as low as you can get since world average in past history for WTI crude is at 27) anything lower will kill alot of countries.

OR short oil if april contract gets near or above 45