Official Short-term Investments Thread

[lasthuzzah]

If you can explain to me in one sentence what makes HOU go up, then you should average down.

:)

[max_boost]

Originally posted by LBG


Tried searching..... got some not all of them. Mind telling me to save me time man? =) thanks!!!!

The pre-req to trading this stock is for you to learn as much as you can and then ask.

If you want it in sputnik terms, heads or tails?

HOU if you are betting oil to go up.
HOD if you are betting oil to go down.


Originally posted by civic_rida
Holy hou is getting crushed.

Watch out. This is where I got crushed last month. The leverage death trap of ETF's. It's the contango that kills it more than anything.


Originally posted by Z_Fan
I bought 1400 shares of HOD at $22 in late January. Had I kept that, I'd be up $22,000.00.

As opposed to trading HOU...

Fuck me!

I was there. 3000 shares at $22 too. lol

Wow. $38.25 now. I'm only holding 1000 shares. Still worried about oil testing $50. It always makes one run up to $50 after the rollover before rolling over and dying lmao

Another thing a lot of people don't seem to understand is the contango effect.

Look at the oil chart during the month of Jan and compare it to the HOU chart.

If you bought HOU on:

Jan 6, oil was trading at $48 and HOU was at $16.

Jan 26, oil was at $48 and HOU was at $10.

You are thinking, WTF? It's because of the contango! The near month was higher than the front month. I can't remember the exact number but when that happens, you basically lose the window of appreciation.

In order for HOU to go back to $16 on Jan 26, oil had to be trading at $62!

So there you go kids, buying and holding a leveraged 2XETF with a wide contango like oil with only 1 or 2 positions is death trap.

Trade with caution.

HOD FTMFW!

[max_boost]

997TT, want to sell me your 997TT? ;)

jk aside.

It's not late to profit from HOD.

I know you guys don't want to switch because I'm wrong 80% of the time but that also means this could be part of the 20% chance that I'm right.

It's only me & DarthHonda on the HOD train and as of right now, I'm up on the 1000 shares of HOD I bought yesterday.

This is it folks, if there was no contango and no monthly contract on crude, I would just buy oil and wait for it to reach $100 but sadly this isn't how it works!

[DarthHonda]

Slept in today, slept like a baby last night :bigpimp:


should've set a sell order to take profit on HOD though, I see the high was 38.93, now it's 37.10, I was in @ 37.79 :banghead:

oh well, I'll just take a long ass break until expiry :bigpimp:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex


of course if you just cant get away from the oil addiction, then either buy if April contract can dip to low 30s, (I believe 27 is as low as you can get since world average in past history for WTI crude is at 27) anything lower will kill alot of countries.

OR short oil if april contract gets near or above 45

Yep. This even coming from a technical perspective!

The thing is, the trend is that there is no trend. It's predictable and unpredictable.

FWIW, after the rollover for the past two months, oil made an attempt at $50 both times. If you guys can stomach it, wait it out a bit, you might be able to get out of HOU at a higher price than it is now. April futures are currently at $42, if it trek towards $50, that's a 19% increase meaning 38% for HOU. HOU is at $5.35 so it'll be around $7.40.

What happens after testing $50? It falls to $35, both times!

That is why you need to have multiple positions for chasing either HOU or HOD. I have 3 positions on HOD and only used up one so far because for fear of an oil rally towards $50. That will crush HOD. It'll go from $38 to $23 lol That's where my two other positions will come in to average down.

That's my current assessment on things. I can't see oil sustaining above $50. I just can't see how. Inventories are increasing, demand is decreasing, economy is deteriorating, OPEC can't beat demand destruction right now. Short of another war, oil is stuck in the ranges of $35-$40 imo.

Even the EIA is lowering their forecast on oil demand, AGAIN!

[DarthHonda]

I can't help but laugh at myself, if HOU/HOD had no rollover until expiry, I would've been close to break even on HOU today had I never sold.

considering how lucky I've been the past month day-trading HOU when I didn't really understand it's structuring in relation to contango, damn I was one lucky bastard to not have lost my shirt. :rofl:

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by 997TT
I've never been aboard a sinking ship so I can't relate to the actual feeling ... but fk me. HOU is gonna ruin me financially ...

contemplating buying more at $5.20 but part of me wonders if i can get some at > $5 next week.

That would be a mistake. You should sell your HOU and take the loss. It's gonna go down. Maybe wait for a rally, if you can take the stress. But it's gonna go down down down down down down down like it has been for a long time!

Here is my prediction. Oil will rally, HOU will rise slightly when it does. But then the April contract will sink from its $47 rally back down to $35. HOU will wind up trading in the $2.00 or less range. Just like it was a short while ago.

Then they will do a reverse split again. 5 or more to 1. Then HOU will start up at $12 or $15 or whatever, and it will rinse and repeat. Just like it just did.

Not even GOD could trade HOU successfully.

HERE ARE THE STATS - I WISH I PAID ATTENTION TO THIS BEFORE

1 Month HOD = 39.96% HOU = -41.47%
3 Months HOD = 131.14% HOU = -82.24%
6 Months HOD = 520.41% HOU = -95.46%

Sell your HOU, take your loss, learn your lesson, move on.

If you want to risk what's left with HOD, that's a far sounder choice than riding HOU IMO. But still too bold for me, I'm just out and staying out.

[Z_Fan]

When the economy turns around, and things are booming again, that's the time to be on HOU.

[DarthHonda]

^^ yup, what Z_Fan said, I'm sitting on HOD for the rest of this recession, I might take profit somewhere and jump back in if I see the potential for a small rally.

[SilverRex]

like I said in the morning after oil went above 35, its a 2-3 dollar rise for march contract, sure april doenst move as much but it still move higher

dont play hod unless april oil is near 45-47 becuase that will be the trendline holding it down.

only buy hou when its near 30 or below march or april, and hod when its above 45

otherwise playing it inbetween will also kill you as it goes either way sharply

gold is making a move to test its high, while Im always bull, im taking some profit off the table, on the daily chart you can clearly draw a 45 degree channel and right now gold is at the upper channel around 950 which tells me, it can either break above or a sell off will begin that can take gold right back down to 860, so im going to loosen my silver a bit to anticipate this move while medium term im looking for silver to reach 15 in due time

for those waiting for HGU, wait for it to pull back about 20% I say to around 11-12 dollars that would be a good entry

[RX_EVOLV]

you guys are soo depressing on HOU hah.. I think I'm actually made money overall trading HOU in the last month or so. But it is definitly short term investment and I dont remember holding it for more than 48 hours for any given position.

BTW any of you guys play options?? I'm trying to learn and get into it but i dont know what companies to follow. I really dont want to buy USD and get into the US market, but all the TSX ones I see are sort of crappy ( no volume). any advice?

[997TT]

$5.28 ... down $11.5K.

don't know if i should listen to z-fan and call it a day ... or a career as making money in the markets is just not in my blood.

funny b/c i have our LT investments with a full service brokerage and they stink just as bad as I do.

[max_boost]

Whatever you do, I can't stress enough times on HOU/HOD, whatever you plan to invest split it into 3 positions!!

If you have only 1 position, then do as SilverRex suggests, buy HOU if the April contract is in the low to mid 30's or HOD if oil is in the mid to high 40's.

Anyway, I know it must be depressing for HOU guys, turn on the TV and March oil is +$4 and then you look at your HOU and it's down. :(

Trade with caution.

RX_EVOLV, we are amateurs here man, options is out of our league lol Although I remember Toma posted about buying some Wrigley options awhile back. Where is Toma? He would be an awesome addition to this thread.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 997TT
$5.28 ... down $11.5K.

don't know if i should listen to z-fan and call it a day ... or a career as making money in the markets is just not in my blood.

funny b/c i have our LT investments with a full service brokerage and they stink just as bad as I do.

Yeah it's a tough call right now.

If you average down and oil rallies towards $50 that's 30-35% gains potentially and you can make back most of your losses. That's "if".

Or after the rollover, oil falls from $42 to 35 and you are down 30-35%.

As for your LT investments, those will be fine. The markets will bounce back but just know when lol. It's not a bad idea to average down on the LT stuff as the markets have corrected a good 40% already.

[DarthHonda]

fuck I'm not even gonna touch all that options & margins shit, I had a hard enough time trying to figure out how to trade ETFs and regular stocks lol

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by 997TT
$5.28 ... down $11.5K.

don't know if i should listen to z-fan and call it a day ... or a career as making money in the markets is just not in my blood.

funny b/c i have our LT investments with a full service brokerage and they stink just as bad as I do.

Don't listen to me.

It's very very clear by my current bank balance that I have absolutely no fucking idea about trading!

[997TT]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


Don't listen to me.

It's very very clear by my current bank balance that I have absolutely no fucking idea about trading!


You have fast cars though ... lol
i'm assuming the 11's are runs in Calgary....that's very impressive.

I don't know what a stock TT would run in Calgary ... there are so many variables but assuming half decent driver, half decent launch i'm guessing low 12's. Maybe you guys who go to the track would know better....

[DarthHonda]

I took $400 from HOD, gonna wait out the weekend and look for a better position on Tuesday, I think I can do better than $37.79 lol...

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by 997TT
You have fast cars though ... lol
i'm assuming the 11's are runs in Calgary....that's very impressive.

I don't know what a stock TT would run in Calgary ... there are so many variables but assuming half decent driver, half decent launch i'm guessing low 12's. Maybe you guys who go to the track would know better....

Let me assure you that an ET down a 1/4 is in no way related to the stock market. BUT...Both will run 11's on any 1/4. :devil:

AND

All you have to do to find out what your car will run is...

RUN IT!

:poosie:

I expect you to be at Calgary Secret Streets some time during the final hoorah this year at Race City. Assuming you sell your HOU with out losing too much and still have enough money to put some gasoline in that purdy little car of yours.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


Yep. This even coming from a technical perspective!

The thing is, the trend is that there is no trend. It's predictable and unpredictable.

FWIW, after the rollover for the past two months, oil made an attempt at $50 both times. If you guys can stomach it, wait it out a bit, you might be able to get out of HOU at a higher price than it is now. April futures are currently at $42, if it trek towards $50, that's a 19% increase meaning 38% for HOU. HOU is at $5.35 so it'll be around $7.40.

What happens after testing $50? It falls to $35, both times!

That is why you need to have multiple positions for chasing either HOU or HOD. I have 3 positions on HOD and only used up one so far because for fear of an oil rally towards $50. That will crush HOD. It'll go from $38 to $23 lol That's where my two other positions will come in to average down.

That's my current assessment on things. I can't see oil sustaining above $50. I just can't see how. Inventories are increasing, demand is decreasing, economy is deteriorating, OPEC can't beat demand destruction right now. Short of another war, oil is stuck in the ranges of $35-$40 imo.

Even the EIA is lowering their forecast on oil demand, AGAIN!

cant underestimate the powerful trenlines, after oil the whole world is waiting for oil to bottom and give off buying signals, the first two rally to 50 is merely some investor jumping the gun. but technicaly as it becomes more clear, more and more will jump in.

why did oil turned around at 48.50 last time and not at 50? because there is a trendline that cuts it right off starting at 56, 50 and then it was 48.50, now that trendline is at 44ish. So the potential upside is from 42 to 44ish then the sell off begins.

so if oil does go back to 50, that is a trendline break, and you probablly will not see low 30s again.

so if april price has to goto 30, it has to do it now and soon, im not talking when oil rolls over, because we never get a chance to buy oil at 30s. So which ever comes first, IF oil can dip to low 30 and ultimate low at 27 while still trading the april contract then yes I would jump in no matter what. otherwise

buy HOD when april oil is at 44-45 and see how far that takes you down. make sure have stops above 45, because above 45 is a break, a break = increase buying volume.

so there you have it, that is my strategy, im waiting for oil to dip to 30 and buy or a break above 45 with a tight stop. or short at 44-45 with a tight stop either way. anything in between be prepare to get killed lol

[The_Rural_Juror]

Are there any fundies on here to balance out the techies?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


Let me assure you that an ET down a 1/4 is in no way related to the stock market. BUT...Both will run 11's on any 1/4. :devil:

AND

All you have to do to find out what your car will run is...

RUN IT!

:poosie:

I expect you to be at Calgary Secret Streets some time during the final hoorah this year at Race City. Assuming you sell your HOU with out losing too much and still have enough money to put some gasoline in that purdy little car of yours.

Bad Investment thread SS meet!

I've been wanting to run my SLK at this elevation. This might as well be the year lol I'm guessing somewhere in the 13's. Not much driver error, just step on the gas and go :rofl: :burnout:

SilverRex can bring his STi to play too lol


Originally posted by SilverRex


so there you have it, that is my strategy, im waiting for oil to dip to 30 and buy or a break above 45 with a tight stop. or short at 44-45 with a tight stop either way. anything in between be prepare to get killed lol

Definitely not underestimating the power of the technical analysis. You and broken_legs did call the correct shot during its last rally. Even with everything going against oil it still managed to make it up to $48! Some of it might have to do with Obamanomics too.



Originally posted by The_Rural_Juror
New ETF on the exchange today: MBU (Max Boost Bull) and MBD (Max Boost Bear)

Well, my 2009 is going to come down to what happens with oil. When the March contract expires, I hope it tanks first before going up so at least I'll look like I'm right. haha

At least I'm well hedged in the long run with gold and a wife who starts teaching in spring. :rofl:

Where's DJ_NAV? He must be loving the performance of HOD. He's another HOU hater.

[Z_Fan]

Yup, and a couple of you guys better wise up or your gonna have to show up to the Drag Strip in a fucking Neon like me...

[DarthHonda]

I won't be joining you broke asses out on these meets anytime soon, I drive a stock Accord lol...

[bigbadboss101]

I drive a grandpa car.

[civic_rida]

We should have a trading meet at the riverbend pub :dunno:

[civic_rida]

That tr.un stock that one guy had on here isnt doing to well.

What is everyones thought on hr.un

[Canmorite]

Beyond investments meet? haha

I can't keep up with this thread! Just the other day it was on page 505.

Trading a specific ETF or two ETFs and trying to 'arbitrage' the two or time them both perfectly is very difficult, and the leverage doesn't help. Unless you really want to spend your day glued to watching both charts of HOU/HOD of course. Remember you are competing against computer models that can spit out orders in a matter of miliseconds :devil:

In the morning I look for big news or stocks that are trading higher volumes then normal in pre-market. Higher volume, gaps, news, etc all make for interesting plays and can be much more profitable then simply playing one oil ETF.

Food for thought.

[bigboom]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Beyond investments meet? haha

I can't keep up with this thread! Just the other day it was on page 505.

Trading a specific ETF or two ETFs and trying to 'arbitrage' the two or time them both perfectly is very difficult, and the leverage doesn't help. Unless you really want to spend your day glued to watching both charts of HOU/HOD of course. Remember you are competing against computer models that can spit out orders in a matter of miliseconds :devil:

In the morning I look for big news or stocks that are trading higher volumes then normal in pre-market. Higher volume, gaps, news, etc all make for interesting plays and can be much more profitable then simply playing one oil ETF.

Food for thought.

yeah reading through this thread i dont get all the trading with ETF's as a standalone investment.

ETF's were never created to be held for long periods of time. Back in Q4 of last year when i was day trading all I'd use an etf for was to cover myself if i was to take a position in a few equities i'd use HOU or HOD depending on the positions id take.

[max_boost]

Canmorite
^
I think we've all been guilty of being completely fixated on oil. Probably because its returns or losses are instantaneous. Everyone is looking to hit that walk off shot and unfortunately for most including myself, end up striking out lol

bigboom
^
How did the day trading go?

civic_rida
^
Riverbend Pub is so good. I try to avoid because of all the neighborhood people. See them everywhere and they recognize me lol

[Legless_Marine2]

If you guys are getting tired of squandering your money on leveraged ETFs, you may want to check out Oilexco.

It's equally high-risk, yet the gains are exponentially higher.

[997TT]

Well i thought about selling 30-50% of my position at close but didn't.

So much for managing risk leading into a long weekend....haha

When I get out of HOU, i'm done with ETF's. I'm taking whatever's left and going to buy some stocks trading in their lower ranges with easy 10% upside and strong support or resiliance at current prices.
ie ECA at $54 or POT at $107 or AGU at $50

it might takes me months to get my losses back but a few K at time is all I'm interested in.

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by 997TT
Well i thought about selling 30-50% of my position at close but didn't.

So much for managing risk leading into a long weekend....haha

When I get out of HOU, i'm done with ETF's.

Considering the clear warnings against investing in them, I really don't understand why people are even getting involved.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by max_boost
Canmorite

I think we've all been guilty of being completely fixated on oil. Probably because its returns or losses are instantaneous. Everyone is looking to hit that walk off shot and unfortunately for most including myself, end up striking out lol


Of course, and I've used HOD/HOU too but simply intraday. Same with USO.

[bigboom]

Originally posted by max_boost


bigboom
^
How did the day trading go?



It was fun and made enough to live off of comfortably but i got a job offer at a company that i wanted to work for so i took it. I miss the trading excitement to be honest and the lack of steady income was a little hard to do life planning around :)

also the lack of human contact and lifestyle during the day is tough too, up at 6 am reading reports, then trade till 2, then do some research for the next day and then work out. then eat dinner, and then you're right back at it watching the markets overseas till midnight.

the secret right now and the only thing that got me through it was short term holds, i very rarely took anything over night.

[bigboom]

Originally posted by Legless_Marine2


Considering the clear warnings against investing in them, I really don't understand why people are even getting involved.

i cant stress that enough, etf's are not investment vehicles they are short term trading mechanisms, never take them over night.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by bigboom


i cant stress that enough, etf's are not investment vehicles they are short term trading mechanisms, never take them over night.
I don't want to nitpick, but I think you mean leveraged ETFs only. there are lots of ETFs that are good long term holds.
Like the ishares series, Claymore, wisdomtree etc.

[bigboom]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

I don't want to nitpick, but I think you mean leveraged ETFs only. there are lots of ETFs that are good long term holds.
Like the ishares series, Claymore, wisdomtree etc.

yes, sorry only leveraged etf's, i only meant that for everybody on here trading HOU and HOD like they are investments, trade those suckers, dont invest in them and i'm pretty sure your life will be relatively stress free.. Use them to cover yourself if you day trade.

[997TT]

I was daytrading it (with good success) until I bought into it and the collapse happened.

Didn't have stops in place, couldn't cut my losses and move on ... number of excuses I can use have lead me to where i am right now.

like they say "a ST trade gone bad turns into a LT investment"
lol

a phrase im all too familiar with lately....

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by bigboom


yes, sorry only leveraged etf's, i only meant that for everybody on here trading HOU and HOD like they are investments, trade those suckers, dont invest in them and i'm pretty sure your life will be relatively stress free.. Use them to cover yourself if you day trade.

With HOU and HOD stealing so much of the retail trading limelight, it becomes easy to forget other ETFs even exist.

[civic_rida]

oilexco is going under.

[ExtraSlow]

Yeah, I know many of the folks that follow this thread every day know you are talking about leveraged ETF's like HOU etc. I just wanted to make sure that clarification was put in there in case there are investing newbies out there who might get confused.

I use non-leveraged ETFs as the basis of my RRSP portfolio, and I'm aiming for about as low risk as equities can get. I like the Wisdomtree and Claymore series of dividend ETFs, which have performed better than the broad market during this downturn while still providing some cash flow.

I try to keep more speculative investments in my non-registered account since capital losses can offset future capital gains taxes.

[max_boost]

Yeah I also just want to stress one thing, good advice from my adviser years back. Have a solid and well balanced portfolio. If you want to get into high risk investments, play around with a small %, say 10-15% and do whatever you want with it. Otherwise, be patient with the market, dollar cost average, it's not how much you invest, it's how long you invest, slow and steady will win the race etc. lol

All of the above is true.

My RRSP's are in the RBC Canadian Dividend fund and GIC's right now. I'm going to look for an HGU equivalent ETF but without the leverage aspect. Yeah I don't want to fuck around with my retirement fund anymore. I need something to fall back on 30 years from now. :rofl:

My cash account took a nose dive because I didn't understand how the leveraged ETF's work and fuck HOU/HOD had to be the most complicated/volatile ones out of the bunch too. :eek: Oh well, expensive lesson and I feel like an idiot.:facepalm: :thumbsdow

There's still hope, as long as HOD doesn't fail me in the next month. Another $15K to go and I'll be even on this damn thing. :whipped:

[lasthuzzah]

Originally posted by civic_rida
That tr.un stock that one guy had on here isnt doing to well.

What is everyones thought on hr.un

Ha ha, it's been less than a Month, and I'm still up a little bit. You really should stop watching every single tick. Besides, no losses until I sell (and I NEVER intend to sell, ever).

How much have you lost (realized) so far?

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by civic_rida
oilexco is going under.

Perhaps. Perhaps not. It's a lot more complex than your one sentence assessment. As I said, it's high risk, but there's also potential to make mucho $$$.

[max_boost]

I'm staying away from Oilexco. I won't trade it unless I have some insider info lol Not that HOU or HOD is anymore predictable but at least I can convince myself one way or another. :rofl:

As for the trusts, if it's a solid company that isn't going anywhere, and as long as they don't cut their distribution, concentrate on the cash flow aspect and less on the ticker.

[natejj]

Any predictions what HOU will open at on monday? Oil's making a comeback....

[max_boost]

^
Yo son, you got to keep with the program man!

The markets are CLOSED on Monday for holiday but NYMEX is open.

Yes, March oil is +$3.50 but effective Friday the 13th, HOU/HOD is tracking the April contract so it don't mean shit for HOU/HOD. If you check the closing price, HOD was UP and HOU was DOWN. Why? Because it's tracking April man.

:D :thumbsup:

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by max_boost
^
Yo son, you got to keep with the program man!


It's clear the only way for people to learn HOU is at the school of hard knocks.

To answer the original question, I believe HOU will open down, but likely increase $10 over the next week. Best to jump in quickly.

[max_boost]

^

WHAT? lol :rofl:

Sarcasm HA guys right? :dunno:

[Bimmer88]

Anyone with any ideas what are some good mutal funds?

[max_boost]

Define 'good'?

lol

The mutual funds that will make you money and not fluctuate? Look into GIC's that protect your principle but offer you market returns.

From TD: http://www.tdcanadatrust.com/GICs/MktGrowth.jsp

Keep in mind for the above you are limited to a max % of gains annually. So in times like this when everyone's losing 30%, you don't lose anything. But when times are good and everyone's gaining 30%, you are capped at like 7%/year.

Just so you know, instead of buying mutual funds, consider ETF's.

Claymore: http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/etf/

ishares: http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/etf/

For ETF's you can invest in any sector and can sell at anytime just like a regular stock.

[max_boost]

LMAO

Stumbled upon this video during my reading, yes I don't know why I'm still up. Just convincing myself that HOD is going to be :bigpimp: for the next couple months.

This guy predicted $30 oil back in August 2008! Now he did say it would take two years but meh.

You know, peak oil, future growth demand might all be real but for the sake of HOU and HOD, we live in the NOW so :whocares: about $100 oil years from now? lol

http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30

[Generic]

Originally posted by max_boost
LMAO

Stumbled upon this video during my reading, yes I don't know why I'm still up. Just convincing myself that HOD is going to be :bigpimp: for the next couple months.

This guy predicted $30 oil back in August 2008! Now he did say it would take two years but meh.

You know, peak oil, future growth demand might all be real but for the sake of HOU and HOD, we live in the NOW so :whocares: about $100 oil years from now? lol

http://seekingalpha.com/article/91100-forget-100-a-barrel-oil-will-plummet-to-30

that article you quote is so interesting. Wow. That guy is just bang on. He believes that oil was so high because of speculation, and its really an OPEC scam. Very interesting.

[Canmorite]

Wicked squeeze in the front month. A lot of guys were buying because no one wants to be short come expiry :rofl:

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by Generic


that article you quote is so interesting. Wow. That guy is just bang on. He believes that oil was so high because of speculation, and its really an OPEC scam. Very interesting.

Actually, he's wrong. While speculation was a factor, it wasn't the only factor - It's facile to believe that the cost of oil was artificially driven up by a bunch of traders.

Additionally, the rest of his article is way off base.

1.) While demand destruction has decreased some demand, there's only so much "flex" possible in our consumption habits. Sure, we can cut back but 5, or maybe 10 percent through reduction and efficienies. Anything more than that is going to come from some very hard decisions, and is going to hurt.

2) He appears to believe that somehow Americans are going to shift to "Alternative" technologies. Unfortunately, the technologies he speaks of are largely pipe-dreams and misrepresentations. For now, we've been able to blame the lack of shift to these technologies on conspiracy theories involving OPEC and big oil corporations. As time goes on, it will become increasingly clear these technologies are not economically viable. There is no comparable replacement for fossil fuels, full stop.

I don't know what "Opec scam" You are referring to. They have oil, and we buy it. We've only ourselves to blame for our oil-dependance.

[Z_Fan]

I just did my taxes for this year and calculated my capital gain...errr...loss! My net loss was greater than my gross income!

:facepalm:

And what is scary, is I'm still holding one stock with a $14k loss and have fully realized my HOU loss. So next year is gonna be -$30k or so and it's only fucking February.

:facepalm: :facepalm:

:cry:

[max_boost]

Z_Fan
^^

Get back into the game and buy HOD!

We can get it back! Oil is going to continue to be under a lot of pressure for the next while. OPEC can't cut enough to offset demand. Non OPEC countries will continue to produce. With the contango, a huge supply gut is going to develop. Cushing is running out of space and eventually excess crude is going to be forced onto the market. A lot of investors/speculators are looking towards economic data to gauge demand and trust me, those numbers aren't going to improve any time soon. Even if you trade from a technical perspective, oil is below the moving average and the trend is DOWN.

This is the month where oil completely breaks down past the lows of $32.40 set on December 20th. You can bet on it.

I can't say exactly how it's going to unfold. The past two months saw oil rally towards $50 3X after the rollover and only to have it fall back to $35-$40 area. Could the same thing unfold for the April contract? Possibly. Or maybe there won't be a rally this time and it'll just fall flat all the way down to $30. The fact remains, HOD will hit $60 this month.

My strategy is to allocate 3 positions for HOD. We've learned that you need multiple positions for this stock. It gives me the option to average up or down depending what happens.

There you go folks, I called my shot again. If it doesn't work out, you can laugh at me and call me an idiot. If it does work out, you can just say I was lucky. No risk no reward. That's how I look at it.

[Generic]

Originally posted by Legless_Marine2


Actually, he's wrong. While speculation was a factor, it wasn't the only factor - It's facile to believe that the cost of oil was artificially driven up by a bunch of traders.

Additionally, the rest of his article is way off base.

1.) While demand destruction has decreased some demand, there's only so much "flex" possible in our consumption habits. Sure, we can cut back but 5, or maybe 10 percent through reduction and efficienies. Anything more than that is going to come from some very hard decisions, and is going to hurt.

2) He appears to believe that somehow Americans are going to shift to "Alternative" technologies. Unfortunately, the technologies he speaks of are largely pipe-dreams and misrepresentations. For now, we've been able to blame the lack of shift to these technologies on conspiracy theories involving OPEC and big oil corporations. As time goes on, it will become increasingly clear these technologies are not economically viable. There is no comparable replacement for fossil fuels, full stop.

I don't know what "Opec scam" You are referring to. They have oil, and we buy it. We've only ourselves to blame for our oil-dependance.

I disagree. I think America which was able to send a man on the moon in 15 years, was able to create an automotive industry that was vastly different in 20 years, will be able to make alternative sources for energy and different types of cars. The American entrepreneur shall not be underestimated. With bonus' and benefits to creating alternative cars and fuels other than fossil fuels, I believe, under the right pressure (aka high oil and gas prices, government incentives), we will create new technologies. Our reliance on fossil fuels will eventually wane, not now, not for 20+ years possibly, but it will.

[Canmorite]

US index futures off a good 1% :poosie:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Canmorite
US index futures off a good 1% :poosie:


Originally posted by max_boost
The trend is your friend and the trend is going DOWN!

As of right now, stimulus is done. Washington has no fucking clue how to deal with this mess. The people are losing faith day by day. Consumer confidence is low. This is going to drag right across the board. Look at the DJIA, down 2.5% today.

- The U.S is going to contract 2% this year.
- Home prices fall in 88% of US cities.
- Home foreclosures exceeded 250,000 for the 10th straight month.
- Initial jobless claims climbed to over 600K
- That's 3.6million jobs loss since 2007
- US unemployment rate at 7.6% and expected to hit at least 10% before we are done.

The stimulus isn't going to stimulate shit all. Infrastructure projects aren't going up tomorrow. It'll be at least 3-6 months before any digging happens. Until then, expect another 1.5-3million unemployed Americans.

Yeah it's half empty. Yeah I'm a bear. But the fact is, nothing is changing her. The DJIA is going to form a double bottom very soon, just a matter of time before we get to the 6000's.

:devil:

[max_boost]

So I was thinking, does America really want transparency on the big banks? Do they? They want the truth BUT CAN THEY HANDLE THE TRUTH? :rofl: :eek:

Truth is, transparency in the banks is going to scare the fuck out of everyone. Why do you think Washington is just handing over money? Maybe they don't want to know either. But the banks are just pissing it away because they are in way over their heads. This much is evident, $350billion is just a drop in the bucket when we are talking trillions. Oh man, just nationalize everything and fuck the shareholders. America will have a better chance starting off on a clean slate. Either way, the people will be more pissed and the markets will be even more fucked.

:drama: :facepalm:

There you have it, financial crisis part 2 coming.

I really hope I am wrong about everything.

:) ;) :D

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by max_boost




:devil:

I haven't changed my avatar back yet :rofl:

[2000impreza]

Originally posted by max_boost
So I was thinking, does America really want transparency on the big banks? Do they? They want the truth BUT CAN THEY HANDLE THE TRUTH? :rofl: :eek:

Truth is, transparency in the banks is going to scare the fuck out of everyone. Why do you think Washington is just handing over money? Maybe they don't want to know either. But the banks are just pissing it away because they are in way over their heads. This much is evident, $350billion is just a drop in the bucket when we are talking trillions. Oh man, just nationalize everything and fuck the shareholders. America will have a better chance starting off on a clean slate. Either way, the people will be more pissed and the markets will be even more fucked.

:drama: :facepalm:

There you have it, financial crisis part 2 coming.

I really hope I am wrong about everything.

:) ;) :D

So I guess load up on HOD? Thats what you do when the bears come out right? haha. JK.

[Inzane]

Are the US markets open today? I'm not seeing any activity on stockhouse.ca today. :dunno:

[slick2404]

i think its presidents day in the states today

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by Inzane
Are the US markets open today? I'm not seeing any activity on stockhouse.ca today. :dunno:

Futures are open, equity markets aren't.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 2000impreza


So I guess load up on HOD? Thats what you do when the bears come out right? haha. JK.

haha

Remember that convo we had in December about oil? $20 oil? Remember that? I spent an hour telling you why oil is going to tank.

Well fuck me for changing my mind. Even then, I had TWO chances to get out of HOU in the plus. Once on the week of Dec 15th and Jan 6th. Both times greed got the best of me and my stops weren't in place. If I had went with HOD right from the get go, ahhh but you know. sputnik called it, a plastic bag in the wind. :facepalm:

Anyway, not to scare anyone as I have to post something negative everyday.


Markets continue to remain skeptical about the government's fiscal stimulus plan and the Treasuries plan to save the financial sector. Larry Levin, president of Secrets of Traders.com said markets continue to be disappointed that there is no silver bullet for the problems and the government plan is not working. "Now that all of the BIG plans are on the table, investors will ask "what now?" After the next batch of bad news, they will ask "what will save the market now?" Since the answer is nothing, the next leg down could be around the corner," he said. NC

I don't think there's an oil rally coming like the previous 3X in the past 2 months. I'm going to invest my 2nd position (1000shares) in to HOD tomorrow regardless if the markets open up or down.

$60 HOD baby. Prove daddy right!

:drool: :love:

[997TT]

i hope it opens up ... HOU that is.

At this point i'm not convinced that HOD is worth buying. But I'm having a hard time selling HOU right now too ... basically what i'm trying to say is i don't have a fkn clue how to play commodities.
lol

[max_boost]

Oil should rally but I have a hard time believing in it because what excuse now? OPEC? Stimulus? That's all come and gone. Demand destruction wins!

BUT,

Looking at the 6 month chart for oil, there's been a rally every month. A short lived one so get in and get out. HOU and HOD are inverse to each other so whatever happens to one has the exact opposite effect on the other.

Looking at HOD specifically, every time it sets a new high, it pulls back an average of 25% before going even higher.

Case in point on HOD, check this:

Sept 2: $5.30
Sept 16: $7.33
Sept 23: $5.37

Oct 28: $13.25
Nov 4: $10.28

Nov 20: $20.50
Nov 28: $15.30

Dec 05: $25.00
Dec 15: $20.55

Dec 24: $31.36
Jan 06: $16.18

Jan 20: $29.75
Jan 26: $23.13

Feb 13: $38.11
Feb 22: $??.??

http://www.members.shaw.ca/samtang310/HOD6month.gif

It goes up anywhere from 50-100% from the bottom of the pullback The opposite can be said about HOU, when it rallies, you need to gtfo or else you will be stuck as it keeps setting new lows! :eek:

Just look at the 6 month charts for HOU/HOD/Crude and you'll see what I mean. The trend is that there is no trend but the above is far too difficult to ignore.

The $$$ question is, will oil rally again this time? It should rally one time based on the above trend and then you guys need to get out of HOU and just say fuck it! Hop to the HOD train and ride it for a good 50%+ and maybe switch back to HOU or just forget about HOU and wait for HOD to pullback before buying back in.

Can I guarantee that's how it'll play out this time? No! But that has been the trend for 6 months.

I am confident because of the contango situation where near months are trading a lot higher than the front month. The economy continues to deteriorate at a rapid pace, unemployment will continue to surge, housing sector is a complete mess and the financial sector is on the brink of collapse. This will continue to put downward pressure on the oil price UNLESS, oil embargo or WW3 erupts.

Now we will play the waiting game, will oil rally for HOU?

:drama: :eek:

[max_boost]

Seriously, what I would give to go back 2 months and take what I know now and applied back then. Ugh! It's always been one of my flaws. I get so excited over something, do zero research and just jump head first, get burned and then wonder, why the fuck is it so hot in here? :facepalm:

[SilverRex]

^

yes oil isnt ready for a bounce until it gets out of this funk, and in sayin that personally short oil at peaks until oil can get back above 45 (trendline break on daily and 50day moving average)

or if the future prices can get to 27-30 dollar oil without worrying the roll over difference of 5-7 dollars.


on gold/silver

I just read that silver was on a backwardation 18 days straight, didnt realize this was happening in the background, no wonder it went straight up for 3 weeks in a roll. and it just made another new high as I write this.

gold/silver all the way, if it keeps marching higher im happy, and I will be even happier if it can drop 100-150 dollars to get back in.:nut:

[natejj]

You guys are scaring the shit out of me... I gotta stop reading this thread lol. I think I'm just going stuff my money in my mattress.....

[max_boost]

Going to bed now.

Oh snap, gold is looking damn good. SilverRex, looks like there will be no test of $930 right now.

Oil is also down.

Oh baby, HBU and HOD. :bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

^

well gold did touch 932 a few times, and quite possibly is close enough, just rememeber sometimes price just doesnt want to hit the right price, regardless im well positioned for gold to advance further to 980

how ever, key is the hui index which is still under the 200 day, the premarket looks promising, if it can break above this and stay there for a day or two then we will have a buy signal for gold shares rocketing another 30% which is another 60% for HGU. however the only thing that worries me right at this moment is, many are waiting for gold to retrace as it is long over due for a bigger correction, yet gold is still moving higher.

Not that this is a bad thing, but man I would want to buy lower, much lower.

right now gold is marching into higher territory, and oil I will be waiting for the ultimate buy signal otherwise im staying away from that for now.

anyone notice BAC is around 5 dollars again, I wonder if its a good play if it dips back to 4 dollars

[997TT]

Down 10% at open ... sweet.

$4.75 ... i'm broke

[bigbadboss101]

I put in a sell on HOD $41.6 before open and it filled right away. Went another $1 higher. Wow.

How about SIRI? Last week it was $0.06 and today with the news it's $0.22!

[997TT]

$4.60 now .... weeeee

I have a RT streamer on my bb so that i can watch this pos go down.

When it goes up I don't get much work done b/c i'm happy i've made $X

When it does down i don't get much work done as i'm calculating how many days of work i've just lost.

lol ... so i basically don't get much work done M-F from 07:30-14:00

[bigbadboss101]

You should PM me and tell me where u work and if they are hiring? I can handle a job like that, and a 997TT :-)

What stock quote do you use on your BB? I am looking for one.

[997TT]

i use quotestream.

its 9.99 USD for the base package which is 15 min delayed.
then for RT, you add on the exchanges that your interested in.
is Toronto for $5, US (NYSE, AMEX, NMS) for $15
Those are the only 2 that i have right now.

$4.52... everytime i post its down another 0.10

awesome

[Z_Fan]

I would have made lost another $5k today had I not sold HOU.

Or more I guess. Fuck, glad I got out even at that big loss.

:poosie:

[Nova316]

I bought into SIRI at 0.10 sold at 0.21 :)
Didnt play with much money since if they didnt get saved they would of went bankrupt.. but its a nice start to my day next to this terrible HOU loss :(

[SilverRex]

hui index is at the critical junture, DOW is only 100 or so points away from its multimonth low and break below would suddenly trigger alot of sell stops that in turn will push gold stock into new heights.

while many saying gold and shares are overbought, the strength is so strong, anything can happen. I believe gold has lets to 980 and silver to 15

gold share is a buy anything below hui guage 320 for the coming months. My trading range for HGU is 11.50-23.50

oil isnt doing much good either, again until the april contract can get pass 45 dollars, its short oil on every rally or if it touches the 200 day EMA on 1 hour.

[DJ_NAV]

Anyone taking the challenge to make money off of HOU??lol?

[civic_rida]

I invested in some oil companies man they are getting owned today

[max_boost]

Originally posted by max_boost

I'm going to invest my 2nd position (1000shares) in to HOD tomorrow regardless if the markets open up or down.

$60 HOD baby. Prove daddy right!

:drool: :love:

Oh baby. I love you HOD!

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I invested in some oil companies man they are getting owned today

I knew it. I told you on MSN last night to split HOD into 3 positions and jump in but you didn't.

It's alright, I don't blame you.

:poosie:

[djayz]

Sam is right for once!!! haha man I am now a bag holder of HOU :(

Let's say oil goes up $10 from today's price what will HOU value will be?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
I put in a sell on HOD $41.6 before open and it filled right away. Went another $1 higher. Wow.

How about SIRI? Last week it was $0.06 and today with the news it's $0.22!

:eek:


Originally posted by DJ_NAV
Anyone taking the challenge to make money off of HOU??lol?

LMAO!

I just did a quick calculation, at $46 HOD. I stand to break even and make back my $20K losses on HOU.

At $60 HOD, I make back my 2008 losses.
At 75 HOD, I make back my 2007 losses.

Anyway, I can't believe it's only 9am and the markets are getting absolutely annihilated. Looks like it IS the death quarter and destruction of the oil price. This is brutal but exactly how I envisioned it. This is a nice blood bath. Double bottoms and then smashing right through them. Don't worry boys, only the strong (companies) will survive this mess.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by djayz
Sam is right for once!!! haha man I am now a bag holder of HOU :(

Let's say oil goes up $10 from today's price what will HOU value will be?

$39 current so $49 oil
$4.5 ----> $6.8

That's the trap with HOU. My aunt and uncle didn't believe the trap and they are still holding their HOU from $10.20! :eek: They had a sell at $10.80 but it never got there!

The perfect storm for me, falling markets, falling oil and rising gold. I can't believe all 3 happened on one day. :rofl:

[bigbadboss101]

I sold my HOD for $3.5/share gain this morning, could have been $5/share though.

Sold my HGU for $1.5/share gain. Got both last Friday.

Did get some HOU for quick flip. Hopefully oil prices will recover a bit later this morning. Won't keep long though.

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, had I wanted the risk of HOD after bailing on HOU, I'd have made most of my money back. I think that day I could have got in to HOD at $36. Though IIRC it was $38 at the moment I sold HOU.

*IF* I would have kept my HOD purchase from late January, I would be up $30,800.00 today on HOD.

That would change my situation greatly.

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost


$39 current so $49 oil
$4.5 ----> $6.8

That's the trap with HOU. My aunt and uncle didn't believe the trap and they are still holding their HOU from $10.20! :eek: They had a sell at $10.80 but it never got there!

The perfect storm for me, falling markets, falling oil and rising gold. I can't believe all 3 happened on one day. :rofl:

Damn rediculous haha. I sold out, took the loss as I'll never recover my purchase price of 7.50 at that rate haha.
Don't have enough cash left to buy gold now :(

[max_boost]

^^

You can't hold only 1 position on HOU/HOD. That's what I learned. If you average down and manage to break even or profit, get out!

That's why I am so pissed about HOU because I had two chances to get out for profit and didn't. I ended up selling at a 40% loss when oil tanked. :banghead:

[djayz]

^^
What I usually did with HOU was flip it for small profits day to day for 300-500. That was working well for me.
But because of the bigger loss I took at the beginning in January on the stupid split I thought I would hold it a day or two more and try to recover that loss. So much for that haha ended up doubling the loss :(

[SilverRex]

get ready when gold/silver pulls back, too many are waiting for it to do so. snatch up what ever you think is reasonable, stocks, shares, bullion, spot what ever.

no one knows when the pull back begins how much or little it will retrace or retest, as we've already seen first hand the it far surpassed the regular 7-8 week up and down cycle in the last few months and recently it went in to overdrive. If you use gold as the mother of all indicator for entry, then let dips to 930, 900 and 850 continue to build up your position.

as for other interesting play,

picked up some bank of america at 5.04, GM under 2 dollars will be a good small gamble.

[DarthHonda]

I can't believe I sold HOD at close on Friday...woke up late today, bought back at $43.11 :banghead:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
get ready when gold/silver pulls back, too many are waiting for it to do so. snatch up what ever you think is reasonable, stocks, shares, bullion, spot what ever.

no one knows when the pull back begins how much or little it will retrace or retest, as we've already seen first hand the it far surpassed the regular 7-8 week up and down cycle in the last few months and recently it went in to overdrive. If you use gold as the mother of all indicator for entry, then let dips to 930, 900 and 850 continue to build up your position.

as for other interesting play,

picked up some bank of america at 5.04, GM under 2 dollars will be a good small gamble.

Are we going to see a test of 1034?

[SilverRex]

^

its only a matter of time my friend but given gold's volaility, its getting harder to pinpoint the exact levels. But you cant go long scaling into a long term position with target to 2400 because that is the 1980 inflation adjusted high. This is conservative number.

im not worried about gold not doubling up from this point, im more worried that the US gov could do what they did in the past by making gold ownership illegal.

Also im beginning to hear again the talks of the Amero currency. Which is quite a possibility when the US dollar decides to drop like a brick in coming years and with gold over 2000, all currency and economy will suffer. The world will indeed be in a worse position with high gold prices. Just get ready when inflation hits, it;s all about hard asset such as housing, gold/silver, resource and agriculture and energy but of course speaking of energy, specificily oil, I dont think technically it is sound for long term play yet.

[997TT]

Whatever plans i had in mind for my car this summer are now on the year 2015 checklist.

actually, if i don't employ the "store all cash in the mattress" strategy and keep investing the only mods my car will see are its current ones ... which is nothing.