Official Short-term Investments Thread

[djayz]

Originally posted by 997TT
Whatever plans i had in mind for my car this summer are now on the year 2015 checklist.

actually, if i don't employ the "store all cash in the mattress" strategy and keep investing the only mods my car will see are its current ones ... which is nothing.

Haha forget plans for your car, some of us have to forget about our plans for rice and soup dinner :rofl:

Anybody still monitoring uranium stocks?

[max_boost]

997TT, sell your HOU, jump into HOD and double down. :thumbsup:

SilverRex: I agree. It's simply too early to go long on oil. The market continues to deteriorate and until there signs of improvement, it's going to continue to fall.

$30 oil will be the new base. Despite OPEC's efforts, it won't stabilize things. Other nations simply won't turn off the taps. The demand simply isn't there. A supply gut will be forming.

Just to note, Obama is detailing his mortgage relief plan tomorrow using $50billion of TARP money.

This might calm the markets slightly but who knows.

Tomorrow's also another big day for oil. Why? EIA Petroleum reports.

I know this seems a bit of a stretch but we might see $50 HOD this week.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by djayz


Haha forget plans for your car, some of us have to forget about our plans for rice and soup dinner :rofl:

Anybody still monitoring uranium stocks?

They had a nice run at the beginning of the year. PNP, MGA, LAM went up as much as 100%!

If only there was a memo telling me $0.50 was the bottom for those stocks LMAO!

Uranium is on the back burner for me. Right now it's all about oil and gold.

[SilverRex]

based on how oil is moving in the last few months,

it is due for a rally starting next week, this week any day now, alot of charts (WTI crude) will be updated to april's contract, while the march will not expiring another next week, it could spawn a brief rally.

right now april price is hovering around 38-39 which is also the 200 day that has been rejecting price lower for march price. Therefore, be prepare for oil to make a move back to 44.

that means your limit should be above 44 april price, and if oil does get to 44 it would be a good position to short there. Not at current levels.

oil will only be bullish if the future contract can move pass 44 convincingly which I dont see.

looks likd gold and silver had put in its top, I sold my silver, if you watch the last 3 weeks it has moved up 1 dollar and drop 50 cents. therefore I will wait for silver/gold to pull back before re-entry. such as 950 gold and 13.80 for silver.

the trend will be my friend until it breaks, and I know it will as the big US banks are shorting gold contracts like no tomorrow, its only a matter of time when gold/silver will pull back siginifcantly somewhat but until it happens I will continue to buy on dips with gold range 950 next leg 988 and silver 13.80 next leg 14.70

[max_boost]

^
I disagree. Tomorrow we smash right through $38 and settle in the $36-$37 range.

My plan is to sell half my HOD (1000 shares) at $50 and let the other half ride to $60.

Now should your technical analysis be correct, that's where the 3rd position comes in. Ideally I still hope to sell half at $50 and should oil rally, then double down the rest when HOD falls to $25-$30 range. After that, we are definitely going to see $60-$70 HOD.

We are going to trade HOU/HOD based on $30 oil this quarter. Bet on it.

[DarthHonda]

wow HOD just went APE-SHIT!!!

$38.40 April oil :eek: :nut:

[max_boost]

^

More to come bro.

So is it just me and you on the HOD train?

[DarthHonda]

fuck don't even get me started, I was too chicken shit to hold it over the weekend and missed out on a good $6k, I bought back at $43.11!! :nut: :guns: :bullshit:

[DarthHonda]

March didn't even move, it's still $35, someone out there's shorting April like crazy

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
^
I disagree. Tomorrow we smash right through $38 and settle in the $36-$37 range.

My plan is to sell half my HOD (1000 shares) at $50 and let the other half ride to $60.

Now should your technical analysis be correct, that's where the 3rd position comes in. Ideally I still hope to sell half at $50 and should oil rally, then double down the rest when HOD falls to $25-$30 range. After that, we are definitely going to see $60-$70 HOD.

We are going to trade HOU/HOD based on $30 oil this quarter. Bet on it.

i wont be surprised if oil can dip a few dollars to find its support, then again I to expect oil to rally to 44 at best which will be an awesome shorting opportunity.

gold/silver is way overbought, while it can dip to 950-955 and make another run towards 988. it could be any day now that we can suddenly walk right into a short term bear cycle. I would expect hgu to pull back 25% to about 11.50-11.60 before resuming it usual uptrend towards 24 . Just get ready for picking up gold on the way down with support around 930, 900

[slick2404]

Originally posted by max_boost
^

More to come bro.

So is it just me and you on the HOD train?

I also got in on Thursday, @ 35.36 ... I'm not just as baller as the rest of you, only holding 100

[DJ_NAV]

I got in at 43.80.. lets see what happens... today has been unreal for HOD.

[Z_Fan]

I actually think if you are a HOU holder, and you didn't get out in the high $5 range, you should just hold a bit longer. Probably already lost so much anyhow, you're looking at a fuckpile of cash. I do think there will be a rally too, before it finally tanks to...oh...I will guess $29 oil within 2 weeks. Hahah.

There, I said it. Twenty something oil is coming.

I wish I had the balls to ride HOD but I need the money for something else and can't risk it. But you have no idea how bad I want to try to use my remaining money to try to make some of my lost money back.

Oh wait, that's how I got in to this fucking situation in the first place.

Nevermind.

I'm out.

HOU holders please post up your CURRENT losses if you were to sell at the $4.40 it's sitting at so I can feel better about selling mine last week and taking the $10k+ hit.

:poosie:

[DJ_NAV]

^I'm currently only looking at about $1100 loss for HOU, but this is after already realizing about 6k of HOU loss in Jan.

[DJ_NAV]

Any opinions on GS?? Dropped huge today.

[997TT]

@$4.40 HOU
$18 ... i'm going to leave a few 0's off to make myself feel better
lol

[max_boost]

Just quoting my old post in case any of my HOD brothers missed it.


Originally posted by max_boost


Looking at the 6 month chart for oil, there's been a rally every month. A short lived one so get in and get out. HOU and HOD are inverse to each other so whatever happens to one has the exact opposite effect on the other.

Looking at HOD specifically, every time it sets a new high, it pulls back an average of 25% before going even higher.

Case in point on HOD, check this:

Sept 2: $5.30
Sept 16: $7.33
Sept 23: $5.37

Oct 28: $13.25
Nov 4: $10.28

Nov 20: $20.50
Nov 28: $15.30

Dec 05: $25.00
Dec 15: $20.55

Dec 24: $31.36
Jan 06: $16.18

Jan 20: $29.75
Jan 26: $23.13

Feb 17: $44.XX
Feb 22: $??.??

http://www.members.shaw.ca/samtang310/HOD6month.gif

It goes up anywhere from 50-100% from the bottom of the pullback The opposite can be said about HOU, when it rallies, you need to gtfo or else you will be stuck as it keeps setting new lows! :eek:

Alright, so HOD is up 83% from its most recent bottom on Jan 26. A pullback is in the cards. When? I don't know. Could it just keep going higher? Possibly.

Keep in mind OPEC rumblings on another crude cut coming Mar 15th could just be the excuse traders use to rally up the oil price. Tomorrow morning 8:30am is the inventory count. Keep an eye on this.

Like I've said over and over, keep multiple positions available when trading HOU or HOD.

My plan for HOD is to sell half at $48-$50 and let the other half ride. Should oil rally and HOD drops 15-20%, don't panic. Take the money and average it down. Any rally is just temporary so stay in there.

I don't have much advice for the HOU holders. Unless you average down a boat load of cash and get a crude rally, you guys are in tough. :(

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by 997TT
@$4.40 HOU
$18 ... i'm going to leave a few 0's off to make myself feel better
lol

Knowing they are there makes me feel a little better. :poosie:

It's only money.

So fuck it!

Gonna have to get myself an edge-u-mucation I guess...so I can get myself a real job and pay all this shit off. I'd have been better off buying a $100,000.00+ car a couple years ago instead of trading ... oh sure, it'd only be worth half that by now, but at least I'd still have fun with it! :dunno:

[RX_EVOLV]

^^^

I think the Inventory report is coming Thurs morning instead due to Presidential Day.

i think HOU might rally a little tmr before falling on Thurs. if it does.. good time to get out!

Picked up some HGD this morning @ $7.12, probably gonna sell it now for a flip, too scared to hold any ETFs over night

[DarthHonda]

I wish I was as rich as you max, I can't afford to take 3 positions after I lost my shirt in HOU lol :rofl: I have 1 position at $43.11 x 1000 hoping for the best.

the contango seems to be narrowing in the future months though, I'm still slightly worried, though not as much as when I was watching HOU tumble from $6.9x to $5.3x...I'm just gonna close my eyes and hope for the best. $60 HOD before March 2 and I'm getting the fuck out, gonna wait for that OPEC meeting before I do anything after that.

Now I'm just hoping the rally doesn't show up for another month lol

[SilverRex]

ok im going to throw some cash and try this

im going to pick up HOU at 3.60s (35 april oil) if it ever gets there, and see if I can catch a rally back to 44 then I will buy HOD what ever price it is at when april oil is at 44 and ride it all the way back down. :D

note: right now april oil is under 39, which to me that is under the 200 day moving average. So, when everything moves over, this would be bearish, so I too believe oil will initially dip a few dollars before making a come back because of march oil expiry and short covering that will take us back to 44. Im sure then we all know what to do right?

with the overall market near their multi month low, I wont be surprise we get a bounce when we test it, but this bounce may not last... HENCE

this will go well that a fake rally of the market, will bring oil back up and throw gold/silver off its balance. Then when the market suddenly gives back everything and heads lower, oil resume downtrend and gold resume uptrend. viola, too easy you say? haha I hope so;)

[max_boost]

^

I like the way you think but the scary part is, what if $35 isn't the low for April? What if we are looking at $27-$30? hehe

That's the thing. I don't trust HOU. :guns: :rofl:

It's possible that the rally might not come until closer to March 15 when OPEC meets again. By then we will be trading the May contract :D

Time will tell what happens. ;)


Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
^^^

I think the Inventory report is coming Thurs morning instead due to Presidential Day.

i think HOU might rally a little tmr before falling on Thurs. if it does.. good time to get out!

Picked up some HGD this morning @ $7.12, probably gonna sell it now for a flip, too scared to hold any ETFs over night

Yes you are right. Just verified it.

EIA reports will be out Thurs at 8:30am.

[SilverRex]

^

but oil did happen to rally every 3rd week of the months for 4 months in a row. And why in the last 4 month and not before? because once you get into 50 or below, alot of people are starting to load up for long term.

the lower you get, the more volaility, I read many article suggesting anything below 40 is a buy. Not to say you jump in blindly, nor pass up a chance to short oil.

right now it is true that oil is still in a bear trend until technically proven otherwise. you may get your 27/30 dollar oil wish but usually in a selloff towards expiry and guess what we get screwed and never able to pick up oil at the low of its front month contract. Beside the sell off could begin now so if march hits 27, then april could dip to 33-35.

ive called the move to 50, then to 48 both to and to short and I think this pattern will continue, the next short covering will take it to 44.

Not going to pass up the opportunity if april oil gets to 35 because a 35 to 44 move is huge. but from 44 to 33 is equally big.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
HOU holders please post up your CURRENT losses if you were to sell at the $4.40 it's sitting at so I can feel better about selling mine last week and taking the $10k+ hit.


If I sold all my HOU right now at $4.40 I'd be looking at a ~$5k hit total.
(I have no prior losses from HOU, or from any other oil-related plays. Only prior realized gains).

[natejj]

I'd be down $900 if I sold HOU right now. Not going to though, going to just load up more in the $3's. Dont need that cash anytime soon...

I've made $700 in the past off of HOD.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Inzane


If I sold all my HOU right now at $4.40 I'd be looking at a ~$5k hit total.
(I have no prior losses from HOU, or from any other oil-related plays. Only prior realized gains).

*POOF*

There goes your twin turbo upgrade. :poosie:

[Z_Fan]

Doesn't even count what you're gonna lose tomorrow at open. And then you'll convince yourself to hang on and it will continue to go down the shitter.

Gotta be a rally somewhere for HOU. I say hang tight and then bail as soon as there is $2-$3 rally.

Each day that passes, I get more and more happy I bailed. And less thrilled about not jumping the HOD train. Sure wish I didn't need that money soon...

[lasthuzzah]

Thanks for the tip MAX! I bought a bunch of HOD on Friday, and I have no idea when to sell!!?? Any ideas? I'm losing money on TD and TR.UN though (but I have no plans to sell them ever).

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Doesn't even count what you're gonna lose tomorrow at open. And then you'll convince yourself to hang on and it will continue to go down the shitter.

Gotta be a rally somewhere for HOU. I say hang tight and then bail as soon as there is $2-$3 rally.

Each day that passes, I get more and more happy I bailed. And less thrilled about not jumping the HOD train. Sure wish I didn't need that money soon...

Damn! Too bad you can't get back on to the HOD train. Although right now it's hard to say which way oil will move. We all know it's going to rally but just don't know when!


Originally posted by lasthuzzah
Thanks for the tip MAX! I bought a bunch of HOD on Friday, and I have no idea when to sell!!?? Any ideas? I'm losing money on TD and TR.UN though (but I have no plans to sell them ever).

One can not predict the future but I'll try to anyway. :rofl: :eek:

All I know is this, HOD will hit $60. Now whether it's going from $45 straight to $60 or from $45 down to $30 and then back up to $60, I'm not sure.

The major issue is, an oil rally is coming but we don't know when! Oil rallies every month so it's due for one. My sentiment is that the negative economic situation will continue to suppress it for a bit longer. Another 3-4 days? 1 week? 2 weeks? Not sure. Keep this in mind though, there are bigger forces out there, 1trillion times more powerful than us little guys on Beyond. They can use any excuse to manipulate and rally up the oil price. Be prepared.

You have to understand, in the stock market, one can never maximize all your gains. This much is true. Another saying, you never go broke taking profits.

So what would Max_Boost do?

Max_Boost plans to sell half his HOD at $50 and let the other half ride to $60 and then wait for the pullback when oil does its usual rally. After that, oil will rollover and die again.

Good luck. I am glad some of you guys have made some money following my lead. Yes, all I did was just flip a coin and it came up tails so I bought HOD. jk! HA guys! :rofl:

[SilverRex]

Lets look at oil today

right now march oil is around 35 and april oil at 38.8 now if my analysis is correct, the april oil technically looks like it couldnt break below the 38 downtrendline and 200EMA which leads me to believe short term downside risk is limited to as low as 37.5 to 38 with upside rally towards 44

and if you want april oil to tank, that means march oil has to break the 34.60 uptrend and head lower, way lower towards 30. Will that happen? sure, if the entire market breaks to a new low and massive selloff begin, I think oil will have one final blow under 30. But if it doesnt, then oil at current rally will make a come back. To me, its almost seems like oil is waiting for the stock market to come back, and it will only suceed and sustain its rally if the market recovers,

So range for oil (april) is 37-44 and with oil HOU currently trading at price around 38.8, we are near the bottom then we are at the top short term wise. When oil hits 44, its good shorting opportunity, dont forget, it is harder and harder to bring oil down to 30 or below, it will take a very very strong US dollar and I think the US dollar is near its run, possibly (now at 87.7) shooting up to 90 before another huge drop.

I also hear something or somewhere that the US dollar is about to tank abit again and when that happens, its generally good for stocks, good for gold and good for oil too.

edit: oh and of course the inventory report for oil this morning could be the starting point for it to run to 44

ok

looking at gold/silver. Silver continues to shine against gold, hitting a low ratio as low as 68, gold having hitting its uppwer channel, 970 just has to come down, and so far it is doing just that now at 962. if the trend continues, then gold will most likely find footing around 950-955 then make a push towards 988. But if the market puts in a huge rally, then it could be time for gold to tank alittle further and I'm hoping next level support to be around 930 and 900 with 900 being my strong entry point. Revised up from 860. A bigger drop in gold price will come, just be ready when it does and buy at all the support levels all the way down.

[max_boost]

Crude inventory report will be out tomorrow morning because of the President's Day holiday this past Monday.

I'm going back to bed.

:zzz:

[bigbadboss101]

Is BAC worth looking at again soon? $4.52

[Z_Fan]

In BAC 4.52 out 6.75 in 4.5x would be nice...

I'm worried about BAC falling more...not sure...BAC IMO will always be the "one" they save, no matter what...

[max_boost]

SilverRex,

Well, the DJIA is still holding up. Is it because of Obama's announcement of $75billion plan to stem foreclosures? HA, like that will do anything. :rofl: It's just prolonging the inevitable as it just a matter of days before they break through those November low's and on to the 6000's!

TSX getting nailed again today, as expected. So goes the Americans, we follow.

HSD and HXD is up 25% in the past week.

I told you so! Any market rally was just a mirage in the midst of what's to come.

Why am I being so negative? It's the death quarter man. The market is unforgiving.

Oil isn't moving much right but HOD is still up slightly. I'm banking hard on tomorrow's inventory count. As of right now at $46.13, if I were to sell all my HOD, I have come out of this whole mess unscathed and at least with the partial understanding that things can be simple as flipping a coin.

[max_boost]

Careful with those US banks. Things are trending lower. You are going to see a market sell off man. Geesh guys, the dow is barely staying above 7500, I don't want you guys to get caught in the crossfire!

[lasthuzzah]

I had to sell at 47, it was going STRAIGHT UP. Thanks again, that's too of money for no work. I was hoping to eaase into it (I have 100K to spend), but I was going to do it 5K at a time instead of 40K at a time. Ha ha, oh well it worked out this time, I think I'll take it as a lucky hit! I'll go back to my poor boy 5K buying again (and lose money like on my other buys!).

[max_boost]

^^

Nicely done bro! Careful with the markets right now. It's under a lot of pressure. Buy a stock on its way up, not down. Try to average up and not down. Make your money work for you so its not tied up.

I'm waiting until tomorrow's crude count and then I will decide whether I am hanging around waiting for $60-$70 HOD :rofl: It is a real possibility right now. OPEC meetings are still a month away. The market is melting down. It's the perfect storm for the oil price to get destroyed. :devil:

But alas, based upon the past 6 months, an oil rally is also imminent. I can't decide. I'm going to have to resort to flipping a coin. Heads I stick with HOD, Tails I am out of here and take my profits.

[max_boost]

Oh snap, might see $1000 gold tomorrow! :eek:

[SilverRex]

ok

after reading countless articles right now I am convinced I think this is how things will play out short term.

the stock market is at a november low, gold is at a multi month high and yes we are not far away from 1000 now, oil is also flerting the bottom that potentially can crack and under 30 here we come.. BUT

a few piece of the puzzle

-major US bank from feb 6 is holding massive short position of gold/silver futures. (bearish for gold)
-gold stock index hui is forming a very obvious rising wedge (bearish for gold)
-gold is overbought, at its upper channel.
-oil is also in a bearish wedge that can break lower

but, if gold is to drop and fast, that only means one thing possibly, a rally in the market place. I dont believe the rally will be huge, but none the less, the market will recover a bit and throw everyone that is trying to chase gold.

that just happens will give some life back to oil so that oil can put in its monthly end of month rally towards 44, gold will reset lower and head for its lower channel before resuming its run. While no one knows how much gold can fall. what I will be doing is this

buy gold/silver when it dips significantly if you recall, gold dropped from 1033 to 904 in 3 days. it can do the same again. and tha would be 870 can be a possibility if it things happen fast. and I pray I can get in on that level.

ill also buy gold stocks perferablly HGU starting in the 11s (20% pull back to 50 day moving average) if it dips lower, I'll add to my position every 2 dollars down.

I feel abit confident oil could start its climb soon, probablly after the report comes out to shake out weak hands, so hou for me from 4-5, then I turn around with HOD from 35 to ?? (when oil reaches near 44) assuming 20% pull back also like it usually does everyone month.

Then after a what everyone thought was a triple bottom the market will find themselves trapped and this is when gold punch thru 1000 and oil will then break its 33-35 support and land somewhere sharply lower in the 20-25 however by then we are probablly looking at next month's contract price around 27-30 which may be as low as you can get for HOU or HOD short play.

edit: one thing though, technically you can still draw a case there is a trendline support from the 681 bottom that now touches 800, one has to wonder, anything can happen and so what if gold suddenly drops like a brick, just be ready if that happens

[max_boost]

I'm totally down for $11 HGU! lol

Too bad none of you guys held your HOU from back in November when it was $5. That was pimp.

I remember I had two choices. Go all in on HOU or HGU. Well I picked HOU and we all know how that worked out. :facepalm: If I picked HGU, I probably would have bought that R8 haha

Instead I am back to square one. sigh. :(

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok

edit: one thing though, technically you can still draw a case there is a trendline support from the 681 bottom that now touches 800, one has to wonder, anything can happen and so what if gold suddenly drops like a brick, just be ready if that happens

I think Gold plays a lot different than stocks do. Gold really isn’t an investment that can be tracked and speculated with charts and bollinger bands. It’s wealth preservation. People pile into Gold as a last resort. Everything is a bad bet now that’s why gold is going up. Real-estate, stocks, bonds, dollars, are all fairly horrible. The only sure thing is a coming inflation and and increase in commodity prices.

If Gold crashes, it’s because people will pile into something else. What will they pile into then? The dollar? People that have deleveraged everything into %100 dollars are now staring in the face of another bubble, therefore they are starting to diversify. This IMO will only serve to drive Gold up as it is one of the few things left in the world that is real.

[SilverRex]

^ well gold really is on its own league I read somewhere even in the heights of extreme inflation in the 80s, gold dropped like there is no tomorrow. There is just too m any factors and I am sure we can all agree the manipulation in gold gives us an opportunity to get in and I intend to do just that.

oh and it doesnt have to be people moving away from gold for it to drop, it could very well the US banks trying to cap the gold prices. look what happen when the 3 US banks went into record short position back in august, gold later fell 200 dollars admist the worse day in recent history in October. And on feb 6, they increased that position by another record by 30% to the extreme, you have to anticipate something is about to happen. But this time I dont feel as bad, going from 933 to 681 was scary for gold bulls like myself, but going from 980 to 800 I Can live with and I'm confident this will be one of the best buying entries of 2009

speaking of gold coming down, it appears to have exhusted it self with a spinning top at 980 off the 1 hour chart. Im going to short gold with a tight stop and see how far this takes me,

[max_boost]

Short gold? Already?!

$1000 gold man? We are too close to not have some higher power push it through!

I have my sell order in place for HBU at $20.55 which should be precisely at $1000 gold. Oh that gratifying feeling lol

That would net me a 17% gain on my 1000 shares of HBU. Yes. It's so nice to be finally making money.

I would love to see $800 gold. You have no idea man. It would force me to go all in on HBU and HGU. I would love that. I don't want to miss the second wave up. :bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

Thursday

ok so I was lucky, shorted gold at 980 to 971, and made some small gains. I still believe any moment or day, gold will head into a sell off mode, RSI is above 70 which is way overbought lately, gold stock is unable to outperform gold lately which indicates bearish gold in the works.

And if money flows out of gold? where will the money go? I suspect it will rally up the entire market a bit. And this inturn can drive oil back to 44, the 37-44 range I suggested, while it got very close hitting 37.22 and now it has jumped back to 38.70 as I write this, how come 37 held you say?

well that was the 200 day and down trend, the WTI crude price technical charts finally made its move over to april prices and I am encouraged to see we are holding well. the 200 day is at 37.50 and limited downside risk to 36.50 will be our low range while the run target to 44 will begin.

while the inventory report this morning may swing oil both ways range continues to be low of 36-37 and high of 43-44

I happened to picked up some HOU in the low 4s in anticipation of oil marching to 43, then I will turn around a short oil and see how low it can go. Hopefully one more rally before oil makes the ultimate nose dive under 30

[SilverRex]

MAX: didnt you say your going to sell HBU at 20? I think it closed at 20 yesterday

[bigbadboss101]

I put in a low bid for HOD before open and got in. Put in a high sell on HOU and got out. With that said, I still have a position on HOU, and one on HOD. Not sure what direction oil is going today.

[bigbadboss101]

http://comexdatardc.cme.com

I like the link you guys gave us.
Only thing is it doesn't work on my BB :-(

[max_boost]

Yeah I got greedy with HBU lol but I just sold it for $19.80 earlier. Still a profit anyhow. I really wanted to sell right at $1000 gold hehe

Anyway, so HOD finally pulls back damn it. The market is catalyst to the oil rally? I really want to get out and I still profit nicely but I'm waiting for that damn inventory report!

:drama:

[max_boost]

Oh WTF? HOD now even? Thank god I no longer set stops for HOD because it just doesn't work like your conventional stocks :rofl:

AGU is looking good. When the TSX was last this low, AGU was under $35. Fuck. This is one good stock for you guys to leave in your portfolio for the long haul. Recession proof stock?

Anyone thinking about RIM? :D

[bigbadboss101]

It just changed directions. Oil price that is.

[max_boost]

lol

DAMN! That was fast! :rofl:

Crude inventories fell 138K. Very surprised by that. Oh well. Can't play it right every time.

[bigbadboss101]

hod dropped like $4 in matter of minutes. Buy more? I didn't sell when I was up $4/share from this morning.

[max_boost]

Hard to say right now. Honestly I'm not too concerned with HOD. I gambled on the inventory report sending HOD to $50 and the opposite happened, go figure lol

My cost is $39 HOD. If crude rallies here from to $44-$50 then so be it. I'll just buy more at those price points and enjoy its fall to under $30.

:D

[997TT]

c'mon HOU you pos

$4.58 ... give me a decent exit position.

opened up 10%...pretty much fell back to even ...expecting the worse with the inventory reports ...only to be midly surprised and now its up 11%.

SR played this thing perfectly ...

[SilverRex]

what do you know -200k instead of the +3 million barrels. looks like 43-44 target is getting more and more likely.

update.

BAC is at 4 bucks, i'm going buy some when it gets to 3.50, 2.50 and 1.50 lol, I dont think the US gov will let BAC go under, yes the swings will be hard to bare but that is why im not going be throwing too much money in this but it will be fun to watch

[DJ_NAV]

Cheap HOD!

[SilverRex]

^

yup it will be cheap when HOD it gets to about 34-35 dollars and I think the DOW is going to find its way back to around 8300-8500 before skewing lower again.

[lasthuzzah]

Time to buy HOU??

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 997TT
c'mon HOU you pos

$4.58 ... give me a decent exit position.

opened up 10%...pretty much fell back to even ...expecting the worse with the inventory reports ...only to be midly surprised and now its up 11%.

SR played this thing perfectly ...

I think we are all surprised by the inventory reports. After weeks of 6million+, it went down 138K! lol I think I'm the one in most shock. Oh well, I'll survive.

I also can't say this wasn't expected. I've been talking about it for the past few pages. A rally was in the cards but I was hoping for it to be next week! :rofl: You HOU holders out there are going to have decide where your exit positions are. Tough game to play no doubt.

The next $$$ question is, is this just a 1 day thing or is oil ready to move forward to the $44 range like Rex suggested before resuming its down trend?

[lasthuzzah]

Yup, buying HOU, I'm a Beyond Gambler now! But I will only buy 3K shares with my profits. So I can let them ride and see what happens.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
Cheap HOD!

Yep. If oil gets to the $46 range = $26 HOD. Oh I'm going to be swinging for the fences this time.

[max_boost]

Edit.

[Legless_Marine2]

I've really had my eye on this one. They've suffered a lot from the Economy, but are positioned for a great comeback.

Floating around $4 currently. Unfortunately, I'm skinny on cash right now, otherwise I'd snag more.


Any thoughts?

[Proyecto2000]

so is buying HOU a good idea now?

I ended up buying Suncor 2 days ago at $23.04 (my first stock purchase), hoping to sell for a small profit soon ;)

[aklalani]

GO HOU!!!

[djayz]

Originally posted by Legless_Marine2
I've really had my eye on this one. They've suffered a lot from the Economy, but are positioned for a great comeback.

Floating around $4 currently. Unfortunately, I'm skinny on cash right now, otherwise I'd snag more.


Any thoughts?

They are talking about this on BNN right now...
Doesn't sound very positive since they don't have much cash flow.

[tryingtobebest1]

any ideas on TCK.B??? i hate myself, all of the other gold stock are going up and tck going down, because im in it!((((

[DJ_NAV]

I think gold is down today.. isnt it?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
so is buying HOU a good idea now?

I ended up buying Suncor 2 days ago at $23.04 (my first stock purchase), hoping to sell for a small profit soon ;)

SU looking good. Up almost 8% today.


Originally posted by aklalani
GO HOU!!!

How many shares do you have?


Originally posted by djayz


They are talking about this on BNN right now...
Doesn't sound very positive since they don't have much cash flow.

Stay away from TCK.B, too much uncertainty with that company.

[DJ_NAV]

fuck me... bought hod at 43... was getting greedy and hoping it would rocket to 50.. but now im sitting at a loss

[lasthuzzah]

Originally posted by aklalani
GO HOU!!!

Hou train all aboard! I must be getting lucky on these flips.

When are you selling HOU? Edit: 4K shares

[SilverRex]

^

im holding HOU until about 5.30 I think that is about 43 dollar oil

then will short it

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by djayz


They are talking about this on BNN right now...
Doesn't sound very positive since they don't have much cash flow.

My impulse is to do the opposite of what's recommended on BNN :-)

[997TT]

Originally posted by Legless_Marine2


My impulse is to do the opposite of what's recommended on BNN :-)

you should do the opposite of me.
then everyone would be rich

[max_boost]

Things in the oil world changes really really fast. For you guys stuck on HOU, this is the rally we've been talking about and here it is.

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by max_boost
Things in the oil world changes really really fast. For you guys stuck on HOU, this is the rally we've been talking about and here it is.

Everyone's talking about making money on HOU, but all I see is people losing money.

I made money on HOU, and in retrospect, I was lucky I didn't lose. If one understand the ins and outs of oil futures, one can profit. If one doesn't and is just seeking quick $$$, one is going to lose.

Please, everyone... if unsure, stay away from HOU.

[SilverRex]

I guess I forgot to mention oil will run into difficulties at 40 as well as 41 (price projection from the 34-38 march oil apex) But I do anticipate it reaching 43-44 before turning around. Of course that being said the 43-44 will also be the area to watch because if oil was to shoot above this and hold above it then we could have ourselves a bullish signal that oil may have finally gotten out of its slump.

of course I do not expect it to break over this barrier this soon anyways. Not at least testing 27-30 so hopefully there is still money to be made with HOD when the time comes.

[DarthHonda]

fuck, should've sold yesterday at close...so effin' mad, now I'm in the hole, this rally better end soon :whipped:

[max_boost]

^

Trust me, you were waiting for the inventory reports and $50 HOD. ;)

I got ahead of myself too, at the very least set a stop after the reports in case it doesn't work out. Sure enough after joking about not setting a stop earlier this morning (when oil rallied and HOD dropped to $43, it came back to $47 before 9am and the reports) it comes back and bites me in the ass 20 minutes later! :rofl:

The genius thing would have been to sell after the reports at $45 and then re buy at $41. Right, if it were only that simple. That's what the guys who are sitting on the sidelines reading our posts would have done. :rolleyes:


Originally posted by Legless_Marine2


Everyone's talking about making money on HOU, but all I see is people losing money.

I made money on HOU, and in retrospect, I was lucky I didn't lose. If one understand the ins and outs of oil futures, one can profit. If one doesn't and is just seeking quick $$$, one is going to lose.

Please, everyone... if unsure, stay away from HOU.

Absolutely. I've been saying it over and over. HOU is a death trap if you don't get in and get out. A lot of people don't want to sell when they are down so they get stuck. You don't realize that with the contango and rollover, oil needs to rally higher than the initial oil price when you made your HOU purchase. That's the trap and it gets magnified because of the leverage aspect. If you are going to chase to break even, you need multiple positions to average down and wait for a rally. The rally is here but is it just for today? Tomorrow? No one can tell the future but the technical analysis remains that oil is in a bearish channel. The past history and pricing shows that despite HOD pulling back, its due to skyrocket forward.

Aside from emotions, what all has changed? The problems of the economy are still forefront. Just because crude inventories went down 138,000 barrels doesn't change the fact that there is still a massive oversupply on the markets.

With that said, HOU holders have the unenviable position of trying to determine their exit point right now. I was there and had to stomach that huge loss almost a month ago.



Originally posted by SilverRex
I guess I forgot to mention oil will run into difficulties at 40 as well as 41 (price projection from the 34-38 march oil apex) But I do anticipate it reaching 43-44 before turning around. Of course that being said the 43-44 will also be the area to watch because if oil was to shoot above this and hold above it then we could have ourselves a bullish signal that oil may have finally gotten out of its slump.

of course I do not expect it to break over this barrier this soon anyways. Not at least testing 27-30 so hopefully there is still money to be made with HOD when the time comes.

Good play on your behalf so far. Damn I should have set a stop after the inventory report though. I got ahead of myself. I didn't even entertain the idea or the possibility of a reduction in inventories. Even at 138K, I didn't think it was that bad lol the markets reaction to it surely surprised me. But again, I should have known, oil needed a reason to rally and there it was, I saw it coming but ahhh why are things so much clearer after wards?
:rofl:

[max_boost]

With that huge post aside, I'm glad I still have a buffer on HOD. 2000 shares at $39 and last week I profited from 2000 shares from $32-$35. Whew. :rofl:

If this oil rally holds up, those gains are going to be completely wiped out which means one thing, double down and ride HOD to $60!

No fear (or just plain stupid). Time will tell. :thumbsup:

[DarthHonda]

fuck I was in at $43.11 :whipped: I made the mistake of selling last Friday before the long weekend :banghead: :facepalm:

I still feel slightly better than when I was holding HOU though haha, this HOD train hits $57 before rollover and I'm out. :drama:

[max_boost]

DarthHonda, I told you to have that second position ready in case this happens! Hang in there. You just never know. Oil might drop back tomorrow when they realize that this oil rally wasn't warranted. Tomorrow is the expiry for March futures so there might be a sell off.

Ahh you just don't really know sometimes. That's why you need to be gangster to trade HOU/HOD. :rofl: But I can tell you with absolute certainty that we will see $60 HOD. Like I said in one of my previous postings I wasn't sure how we were going to get there. Either fall flat straight to $30 from $38 or go to $50 first and then tumble all the way down.

Keep the emotions in check. I'm handling this one a million times better than the past few times. Experience baby. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

looking at USO chart, I dont know if its just me but its shaping up to look like a descending wedge which would be bullish. and if USO is to put in a bottom and reverse course, that means oil is about to do the same.

everyone who trades HOU/HOD needs to be aware of the apex these charts are showing. the key area for oil right now is 43-44 I can only assume the trend will continue until this barrier is breached, and when it does, its time to hold HOU longer. so set your stops accordingly.

I personally would not buy HOD at these level because oil could go both ways. you always want to wait until it is at a resistance such as 50 and 48 the last two times, and it made be no different this time when it touches 44

but caution is advised because USO just went oversold, in 2008, march was good for stocks and bad for gold. with gold and gold shares overbought lately, you JUST have to wonder if the market is ready for a bounce.

if DOW suddenly pulls over 8500, S&P over 900 and nasdaq over 1600, no doubt that will signal another 20% rise.

[Z_Fan]

Just a point here for you HOD guys.

In the last couple of months, there has been a VERY large difference between the monthly contract prices. It wasn't long ago that the June and July contracts were well in to the 50's yet oil was in the 30's. You had a situation where there was $5+ seperating each monthly contract. This works very well for HOD and is a HOU killer.

However, if you look at what the massive decline in oil prices has done in the last week, it has seriously reduced the gaps between rollovers. From about 5 seconds ago, this was the data...

39.75 Apr
42.12 May
43.60 June
44.95 July

So, right NOW there is basically a hair more than $5 difference in the rollover amount in the next FOUR months! This is a HUGE deal for those who think HOD is all the shit. Because the monthly difference now is so minimal, the contango effect has been greatly reduced. This makes HOD a much much larger risk than it was just one month ago.

I'm not playing with HOU or HOD right now. But if you were paying attention to HOD and the contango spreads last month, you would now realize that HOD is a much riskier investment than it was last month. Simply because you no longer have this massive cushion to rely on during rollovers.

This is important to understand. And frankly, if I would have really understood this from the get go, you could clearly have seen that HOU was never ever in any position of power like HOD was. Simply because the rollover differences were so large. HOU has never been a good buy in the last month or more.

Right now, that is no longer the case, and things could definitely turn around and suddenly HOU is the favorite. Ironcially, these gaps have been significantly reduced while HOD was going up like mad and oil was going down like mad. But now that oil is rallying, but the contango effect has been seriously reduced, HOU actually is better positioned than it has been in the last two months to put up a fight. Yes, HOD still has a little cushion between the current and next month contracts, but after that, it's getting very close.

It's like you get in to a fight, and there is one guy coming at you. He's tough. But you can beat him. Only you were on team HOU and HOD had 5 more guys in reserve that he was gonna send out and kick your ass with. Now team HOU only has 1 more guy to come out from team HOD after you kick that first guys ass, and guess what, now HOU has a chance.

The tighter those rollover amounts get to, the riskier HOD is becoming.

I'm not saying HOD is dead now, cuz it's not, but the massive gains of virtually certainty are definitely eroding. If you had a chance to scoop money off the table at $47 HOD, and you were paying attention to the closing of the rollover gaps, you'd know you should have sold HOD and waited patiently for this rally, which really just needed a reason to happen. Note, this rally has increased oil price, but it has NOT increased the rollover gaps. The rollover gaps continue to decline, and HOD holders should take note.

Happy trading!

[SilverRex]

^

you bought up a very good point indeed, the larger the difference between contracts the better hod plays out.

right now im surprise to see march oil at 38.96 (which is about to expire today or tomorrow) and april is 39.74 when is the last time it was this close

if the to be march contract is about to expire and its closing the gap it can only mean one thing, someone is buying oil under 40 bucks and soon this effect will roll over that under 40 april will continue where march left off instead of seeing a 7 dollar gap and isntantly everyone sells off next months contract because the demand for such lofty price isnt there.

I'm really not too concern how much money im going to make from here to 44 or from 44 to 30, I'm more interested if oil can finally break the cycle and lead the entire market to a good turn around.

[civic_rida]

Next week will be intresting for sure.
Im just watching.
Dont want to get burned.

[SilverRex]

going to give gold/silver another week of advance/sideways perhaps it really wants to touch 1000 before sell off begins. hopefully any breakdown in the market will be a false one from now until end of next week as we roll in to march for a healthy rebound.

update. Cramer just said "oil is done going down" I wonder if something is indeed about to unfold.

HEU is mighty attractive at 3.64 (lowest 52 week price was 3.36) this is etf in oil companies in general. going to pick up a few and see where this goes

wow we are only 10 pts away from DOW making a new low since November

[max_boost]

Excellent post Z_Fan. Clearly something I overlooked and in hindsight, I should have pulled the trigger on HOD this morning when the inventory report didn't come out favorable. With that said, we all know how difficult it is to win in this game. Too many variables to assess and sometimes despite making what you believe is the correct choice, other factors still come into play. I am disappointed I didn't pocket $47 HOD but can't worry about what might have been now. Time to move on.

I still stand by my call and in no panic with my HOD. I still believe the DJIA is going to fall into the 6000's and the broader S&P500 to fall proportionately. This will put a lot of downward pressure on the oil price and $30 oil will be coming.

[max_boost]

SilverRex, any reason why the CDN $ isn't moving? I always presume the dollar rallies up along side crude?

[Z_Fan]

Oh yeah, I think oil will fall long term too. So HOU will likely trend downwards anyhow. But with the contango effect minimalized greatly, there is less for oil to fall after each rollover. This actually stabilizes the losses for HOU as opposed to the wild losses we experienced in the last while. :poosie:

[SilverRex]

wow I was looking at DOW as soon as it made a new low just under 7449, it shot up to 7490 like in 1 sec.

so someone is buying at the level instead of selling off or it could be the stock market plunge protection team PPT

[max_boost]

With regards to the contango, there's still a 25% disconnect from now until December. Since I believe this recession will continue to deepen, the oil price isn't going anywhere imo

Just a matter of time before $30 becomes the current $40.

Z_Fan, are you still holding BAC? :eek:

[SilverRex]

a good thing DOW closed above its november low otherwise that would be another alarm bell. Time to call up Buffet's advice buy when others are fearful :D

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Z_Fan, are you still holding BAC? :eek:

No.

Bought $4.52 sold $6.75. Essentially.

Never bought back in.

I think now is good entry though...maybe wait one more day and see how it unfolds. But $3.77 previous low was a very brief moment of shareholder selloff and while it seems cheap now, it's there not on a real quick blip like it was before.

I still say, longterm, BAC is never going to go under as the government will protect that particular bank at all costs IMO.

Anyhow, not holding. And if I was still trading, I would have been very tempted to buy it today at close.

[max_boost]

Z_Fan, whew, mis-read your post yesterday, I thought you bought in again.

SilverRex, Cramer also said Bear Stearns was fine and not to worry about toxic hedge funds. He's about as accurate as we are but with a lot more notoriety.

Ahhh who am to question Cramer. The dude forgets more than I know.

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by max_boost
^

Absolutely. I've been saying it over and over. HOU is a death trap if you don't get in and get out.

I can understand playing the oscillations, but it seems to me to be a lot less work playing something that's oscillating within an upwards trend, than to play something oscillating within a downwards trend.

[ckangarloo]

^totally. But are you saying HOU is trending up now? I'm not so sure yet.

[Beerking]

Do you guys think that GOLd will break 1000 soon, or will it retract to below 940, 930?? I am thinking about getting back into YRI....Im pissed b/c I sold out before it broke $10.....I just never win :facepalm:

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by Legless_Marine2


I can understand playing the oscillations, but it seems to me to be a lot less work playing something that's oscillating within an upwards trend, than to play something oscillating within a downwards trend.

HOU is trending down, and has been for some time. Far better to pick something with a greater potential of trending up (SAY, UUU), and playing of it's oscillations.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Legless_Marine2


I can understand playing the oscillations, but it seems to me to be a lot less work playing something that's oscillating within an upwards trend, than to play something oscillating within a downwards trend.

Absolutely. I agree 1000%. That is why I am NOT on the HOU bandwagon. I'm not gangster enough to play it back and forth like SilverRex. I'd rather sit back and just ride this little rally out. Sure it sucks watching your near 30% gains get wiped out in a matter of days and possibly put you in the red depending how long it lasts. Right now I still have a $5 cushion on HOD. BUT I've learned that you need to have the patience to at least wait a week or two which is about how long HOU rally lasts before falling from the sky. The trends are fairly evident. No matter how low HOD drops this time, it's set to increase by as much as 100% the next time up. With that said, next destination for HOD is $50-60 depending on the % of intra day movement.

My rationale for all this? From yesterday to today, nothing has changed other than a one time reduction of 138,000 barrels of oil which is peanuts. Economy still sucks and OPEC is still over pumping. Oil was due for a rally as part of their monthly thing and fuck me for seeing it coming, talking about it and not doing anything LOL :rofl:

The silver lining in all this? Gives me one shot to cash in huge. I am hoping to see $48 oil through 5% intraday movements which equals $27 HOD. I'll cost average 2000 shares at $27 to bring my total to 4000 shares at $31. When oil makes its inevitable journey to $30 as I project, I'll cash in somewhere between $50-60 depending on my greed level.

Sure I might be getting ahead of myself and there's no guarantee it'll work. Time will tell though.