Official Short-term Investments Thread

[civic_rida]

Nice.

Hou seems to be building support at this level.

[max_boost]

Well, I'm back into HOD at $40.00 in anticipation for tomorrow's weekly crude inventory count. :drama:

[SilverRex]

good day, good day indeed. back at it tomorrow,

:D

[Legless_Marine2]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Im pretty sure i remember you guys saying get out of hou and buy hod cause we are going to 30 dollar oil.


Regardless of what people said, the formula's more complex than that.

Best is to avoid either if unsure.

[Rat Fink]

.

[bigbadboss101]

Come on Gold, up up up!

[max_boost]

Where is SR and his morning updates?!

Markets are selling off again but oil is up!

All I'm getting out of this is that oil is above its 50day moving average of $40.25 and could pop +$3 to the higher part of the bollinger band.

I find that hard to believe. I thought oil was taking its direction from the markets? lol

Banking hard on that inventory report or else going to get stopped out shortly after lol

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


And to think I looked at the chart but was somewhat joking about this back in October last year

Now that will be a tremendous buying opportunity. :devil:

[max_boost]

Alright, inventory count in 10mins. This will make or break my morning. Loaded up some more HOD, up to 2000 shares now with a very tight stop. Let's see which way it moves! :drama:

[997TT]

man i'm dying to get back into an ETF ...

HOU just shot up briefly ... got to $5.05
now back to $4.87

[max_boost]

Wow! 2 weeks in a row. Inventory surplus again. The spike immediately after was :nut: but now it's falling down again. :rofl: I hate it when that happens, stopped out and now just watching the reversal. :banghead:

[The_Rural_Juror]

Are you still selling your SLK, Max? I'm looking for something practical.

I figured that if I stayed out of the stock market for a year, the savings would even out. :rofl:

[max_boost]

No man. The SLK is all I have left. lol

[997TT]

I put in an order for $38.20 when it was $38.35ish and the order didn't get filled.

Now at $40+

lol

[civic_rida]

Put in a order for

hou
bac
nsu

[SilverRex]

sorry folks I was stuck in traffic sending my wife to work this morning.

right off the bat I would have said oil trend is up with support around 39.8 because this was the trendline it reclose above. and oilw ill continue to be up unless 39.8 can broken then next support at 38.6 short term wise I dont see 38.6 being broken especially with two week in a row of positive oil data.

yes the market dragged down oil, but you can tell every dip is presenting an buying opportunity, oil just feels like it wants to get to 43

as for gold after the break below 977 with a target reached at 965, I called it short term to hit 950 then from 950 to 980, well I was close it got to around 950.97 and went to 978. Key area is 990 over all picture looks bearish longer term, its sell on rallies until it can stay above 990 otherwise i'm looking for target towards 930

for HGU it has bounced off in the mid 11s nicely and now tested 13.20 this morning. HUI index also bounced off the 50 day moving average, exactly as I envisioned. This is why this is the 1st level to open a long position, because if gold decides to pull a fast one and actually make another run up for some reason, then 11.50-12.00 HGU will be the base towards 24 dollars. So I couldnt risk missing it.

Of course if gold was to behave nicely and retrace back to 900-930, then we could see lower HGU prices and I have no problem doubling up every 2 dollar drop.


the market pull back may not be surprise like I said before there is a hidden support at around 6883 so it could entirely work out that the market wants to test that area first before making a major rally. but we are definately close, close to a short term bottom around these current areas.

[civic_rida]

So i got into hod at 37.00

[max_boost]

What? I thought you said you were buying HOU? lol

I'm staying out for the rest of today. I'll get back into HOD when it touches down to the low $30's because it looks like oil IS rallying towards $43 now. The markets are coming back!

[max_boost]

civic_rida, set your stop so you don't get murdered!

[aklalani]

GO HOU!!

[SilverRex]

oil cracked 41.50 only means one thing 41.50 is support and leg to 42.5-43.50

now here is the tricky part.

with the dow near its 11 year low, yet oil is at 40, this could be bad for oil shorts because if the market does rally from 7200-8000, then oil may even crack thru 43 area an onto 50

which means 43 oil is the place to short if the trend continues like it did in the past 4 months, but the moment it stays above 43, it will change from short on rally to buy on dips. So I say HOD at 35 or below is a good pick up, but make sure you have tight stop if oil was to crack thru 44 that could signal a run towards 50, then the range will be from 50 back to 43 retest and then onto even higher prices potentialy, or it could be range bound between 40-50 for a long periods before the next breakout

however if oil is to get under 30, I would say 43 is the top, so let see how that plays out

[max_boost]

SR, what's the plan? Short oil at $43? Inventory reports came out favorable for bullish oil so 2 straight weeks of semi-positive data, the bulls are going to run with it, how high? lol

[civic_rida]

whats hod at right now?

[dj_honda]

35.80ish

[SilverRex]

^

recap

short oil at 43 with tight stop say to 44 because if 43 area does hold, next level will be at 50.

so you rather take a small loss and short the next level higher which is 50

of course for oil bears those would be their strategy

but for oil bulls, i have always said anything below 40 is usually a good pick up for oil, yes its difficult to trade HOU even base on that fact so alot of oil bull will want to wait for comfirmation like breaking 43 oil and you will get even more players jumping in again.

[Z_Fan]

I bought HOD at 35.50.

Tight stop. :poosie:

[civic_rida]

Set your stops.
Costed me today.

[max_boost]

1 to 3 or 3 to 1 rule I got from that website a member posted up.

Whether you go short or long on oil, do this.

If you short oil at $43, target at $40 and stop at $44.

civic_rida, don't say I didn't warn you.

I got stopped out of HOD at $38 today and never looked back. If I held it until now I would be crying. :rofl:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I bought HOD at 35.50.

Tight stop. :poosie:

OmG, you are up!! :eek: $36.40 right now!

[civic_rida]

What is hod at now?

[max_boost]

$35.64 now, nvm about Z_Fan being up lol

It changes fast.

I'm debating if I am going to get in at $34 which is the 50% retracement from low to high. I think I'll be more patient. This is the monthly oil rally we have been talking about for the previous while, it could get up to the $46 which is $28.50 HOD.

civic_rida, did you sell?

[civic_rida]

yup i just took a small loss.
150 bux

[max_boost]

What about % wise? Was it greater than 6%? lol

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by max_boost
$35.64 now, nvm about Z_Fan being up lol


LOL

Sold it at $36.25 and bought HOU. Sold it already and back into HOD. Missed that big rally to $42.51 oil though. Hahah, just about hit my stop on HOD.

[civic_rida]

It moves fast.
delay kills me though.

[sm91]

would someone please hook up a breif explaination of 'setting your stops' to me?

[Canmorite]

CL getting stuck at 42.45. Big resistance there.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
$35.64 now, nvm about Z_Fan being up lol

It changes fast.

I'm debating if I am going to get in at $34 which is the 50% retracement from low to high. I think I'll be more patient. This is the monthly oil rally we have been talking about for the previous while, it could get up to the $46 which is $28.50 HOD.

civic_rida, did you sell?

46 is in the middle of no where, either it will hold at 43 or its at 50 tkae your pick

[Unikkatil]

Originally posted by SilverRex


46 is in the middle of no where, either it will hold at 43 or its at 50 tkae your pick

Lucky i held my HOU. Maybe ill get in at HOD. What you guys think a good price is now. Think its going to $30. Should i put an order at $30?

[Unikkatil]

RSI and MACD looking bearish. Was there a 5-day support for HOD at $38? Well broken, i wonder how much it will go down and if i should get in at 30. Whats the next support at?

[civic_rida]

holy hod is gettin killed today

[Z_Fan]

I need oil to dip to $41.90 again. Not set new highs for the day. Well, either way, I've made two trades and set a stop on HOD that keeps me $20.00 ahead after my commissions. Here's hoping oil stops rising! Hahahah...

*BANG* set a new high at $42.56. Crap!

[SilverRex]

almost there I say around 34 is good for HOD with a 5% stop

but what worries me is the market, market looks as tough its on the verge of a good run up and obviously this will be oil positive. Not sure if that means this time around the 50 day moving average at 43 will not hold or what. because like I Said before, its either 43 or its at 50

but if we are lucky enough to see oil make another cycle downward, 43 area is it. well technically its at 43.50 but now the trendline and moving average is a bit off starting at 42.80-43.50 so you will see some resistance pushing as early as this morning at 42.50 because many are seeing this is the place to short.

gold/silver has given back some of its gain this mornig and both are now at the important 200 day, if this level doesnt hold, gold resumes downware pressure

[DJ_NAV]

fuck... im stuck with 42 hod.... i hope the rebound tmw is even harder!

[civic_rida]

Hopefully you dont have to many shares of it.

[Z_Fan]

I'm just a few pennies +oil before I get stopped out of HOD. But I won't have lost anything overall today, so I guess whatever...

[civic_rida]

Im scared to go for lunch.

[DJ_NAV]

only 300 shares... but still... what if hod hits 30 tmw??? wtf?

[Unikkatil]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
only 300 shares... but still... what if hod hits 30 tmw??? wtf?

Then buy at 30 lol.

[Z_Fan]

I just got stopped the fuck out of HOD.

:poosie:

Well, I made a coupe trades today that count towards my active trader status, and I didn't lose any money. So, hey, I'm ahead of the game!

[max_boost]

I told you guys, 1 position, you must set a stop.

If you have multiple positions, you can average down.

Otherwise emotions can get in the way and you can't pull the trigger.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I just got stopped the fuck out of HOD.

:poosie:

Well, I made a coupe trades today that count towards my active trader status, and I didn't lose any money. So, hey, I'm ahead of the game!

Great to have you back in the game! :thumbsup:

I have a buy order for HOD at $34 and a 6% stop. lol

[bigbadboss101]

Missed getting in BAC and HOU this morning. When I was pondering they were at $4.3 and $4.8 respectively.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


Great to have you back in the game! :thumbsup:

I have a buy order for HOD at $34 and a 6% stop. lol

I have an order at 34 as well

now the sad thing is you can tell alot are shorting when it gets near to 43, the moving average is at 42.84 and we got to 42.78

it will be a kick in the face if it starts to drop now lol

oh well no entry no trade

market already broken a key resistance and on the verge to close into the green.

[civic_rida]

34 dollar hod wtf

[max_boost]

Yeah I just can't see oil going towards $50. If $43 is a resistance point, that's where I'm entering HOD.

Home sales dropped in the US. The markets can't support high oil prices with a deteriorating economy. I'll let the oil bulls have their moment of glory today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601206&sid=acdWmjTuKCCg&refer=realestate

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, I set my stop too tight. I had a 2.75% stop. Normally I'm twice that, and it fucked me this time. But still even so no harm no foul. That's what that stop is supposed to do.

[bigbadboss101]

Z I thought you stopped trading?

[max_boost]

Nah, Z is back in the game.

Because HOU/HOD is leveraged, I set my stop at 6%. For regular equities, it's at 3%.

I just wish I employed this strategy years ago. :rofl:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

So civic_rida came by my place for lunch and we chatted up HOD. He had a buy order for $34.50 so I decided to change mine to $34.50 too. Well, it just got filled. :drama:

[civic_rida]

Hod 34.50 filled

[civic_rida]

sorry sam.

[Z_Fan]

Wow, BAC just shot up to $5.45.

I bailed. :poosie:

Sold out at $5.40. Hoping that it sells off at close and drops. But last time it did this is when it went to $7 next day. So possible great news for those holding it overnight.

[SilverRex]

ok im joinning the wagon in at hOD 34.45 with a 5% stop

[max_boost]

SilverRex, update on gold please!

[dj_honda]

im in on a small position on hod as well. i'll buy more if oil goes down and hod goes up.

civic rida for delay do you mean with your RBC account or the oil price?

http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/

that gives pretty real time quotes i think. i can't help on the rbc situation though lol.


hey z_fan...are you with td? my dad has an account with them, and you need 30 trades to be an "active" trader right? does that mean from trade number 31 on they give you the flat rate? thats kind of gay because you spend almost 900 in commissions to get to that. it would be better if they reimburse you some money for those 30 trades. i try to convince him to switch to questrade but he doesnt want to as he has a bunch of td accounts. i hate TD.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok im joinning the wagon in at hOD 34.45 with a 5% stop

Yeah, me too, just bought back in. Market will do nothing today anyhow since it has already settled. So, hopefully tomorrow the oil price tanks! I'll be pissed if it goes up $1.00 overnight before trade opens!

Well, setting my stop at 5% as well, we'll see how it goes!

[civic_rida]

If oil tanks i think we should have a huge celebration at a nearby pub.

[Z_Fan]

RBC ...

And it's the same shit. It can get very expensive to get active trader status back at $28.95 commission...cuz one buy and one sell is let's say $60. Need 30. So $1800.00+ to get active trader status. Fuckers. And then they take it from you each quarter if you do not do 30 traders. Fuckers. But I already mentioned that.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by dj_honda
im in on a small position on hod as well. i'll buy more if oil goes down and hod goes up.

civic rida for delay do you mean with your RBC account or the oil price?

http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/

that gives pretty real time quotes i think. i can't help on the rbc situation though lol.


hey z_fan...are you with td? my dad has an account with them, and you need 30 trades to be an "active" trader right? does that mean from trade number 31 on they give you the flat rate? thats kind of gay because you spend almost 900 in commissions to get to that. it would be better if they reimburse you some money for those 30 trades. i try to convince him to switch to questrade but he doesnt want to as he has a bunch of td accounts. i hate TD.

AFAIK, you have to qualify on a monthly basis.

So for example, at the end of February, they count your trades for the past 3 months, so Dec/Jan/Feb, if that total > 30, then effective Mar 22, you get the $10 flat fee for trades.

Yeah I know it's gay but that's how it works for RBC.

[sputnik]

c'mon 8000!

:goflames:

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, fucking RBC scammers. Hahah, I hate how they do that. Gotta stay active or you are fucked. Best to just do small trades to keep your active trader status...no matter what...

Anyhow, BAC did a little drop to $5.25 right after it peaked at $5.45 and I was gonna snatch it back up but didn't. Now it's back up over that. :dunno:

Still have an order in...we will see if there is a nice sell off at the end here...but I am guessing not and tomorrow could be a big day for BAC holders.

[SilverRex]

market looks ready for a good rally back to 8000.

oil 42.80 seems to be holding so far, lets hope the big guns see what we see and starts shorting around this area

but there will be contradiction on both oil and dow, because if dow rallies hard, so will oil.

hence the tight stop :)

as for gold, it dip to 945 which is nice, however on the daily chart there is a sharp trend line from 800, 890 and around 942, so gold could make a bounce around there.

HGU now at 11.65 is a very good 1st entry position, but if gold was to make a run to 900 and 875 then obviously HGU will be lower. I would be happy if gold falls further and so will HUI from current 285 to say 260, 240 and risk to 220

that probablly will translate to 9.50, 7.50 and 5.50 HGU so scale your positions accordingly.

reason for starting a position as early as 11.65 HGU even though gold could easily dip another 30-50 dollars is because you just never know what gold is up to, for all we know, just like when we were waiting for gold to drop from 930 to 850, instead all it did was bounce off 890 twice and off it went. I dont want to risk missing the run to 24-30 dollar HGU when gold decides to make a move above 1000.

while the market clearly wants to move high, is it still wanting to test 6883 first before it finally sustains its momentum? that would be good because then we can all ride oil back down when the market takes a hike further. but if this happens, then gold will move back up, so take your pick.

oil up maket up gold down

oil down market down, gold up

I actually rather have gold down down down

[bigbadboss101]

We can all hope for oil to drip tomorrow so we can clear our positions. I have 3 positions of HOD, 1 HGU, 1 BAC (although I could have had it $1/share cheaper earlier in the day).

[max_boost]

Selling my HOD at $40 tomorrow. :poosie:

[civic_rida]

imagine $47

[Z_Fan]

Well, I got my HOD and am up on that a little. Hoping for a war on foreign soil or something to start tomorrow. :poosie:

Uhm, and slipped back into BAC right at close with a position at $5.16. Hoping that one doesn't back fire on me.

[ckangarloo]

Originally posted by civic_rida
imagine $47

Hope you are right! I've been sitting on HOD at 43. DAMN, no stops!!! I just need to remember that the trend is my friend.

[civic_rida]

stops are your friend but you gotta be careful how close you set them to your price.
My stops kept being triggered and lost some money cause of it.

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, I agree. I actually got burned twice recently on setting stops too closely. Actually 3 times in fact. And lost money because of it. Basically in all cases the stock just barely hit my stop, and then rebounded. In all cases, those stocks are now well up over where I initially bought them, forget about where my stop was at.

Careful careful.

On the other hand, ensuring you have a stop is critical. I don't think I'm ever gonna buy another stock and not set one. Had I always been setting stops since I began trading, I'm sure I'd be down still, but no where near as much as I am.

[max_boost]

Looking at HOD specifically, every time it sets a new high, it pulls back an average of 25% before going even higher.

Case in point on HOD, check this:

Sept 2: $5.30
Sept 16: $7.33
Sept 23: $5.37

Oct 28: $13.25
Nov 4: $10.28

Nov 20: $20.50
Nov 28: $15.30

Dec 05: $25.00
Dec 15: $20.55

Dec 24: $31.36
Jan 06: $16.18

Jan 20: $29.75
Jan 26: $23.13

Feb 18: $47.19
Feb 25: $34.89

http://members.shaw.ca/samtang310/big.chart.gif

There you have it. This chart is scary, the numbers are scary. Anyone else catch it?

With the exception of the run from Dec 24 to Jan 06, HOD has pulled back by its average of 25% and in 1 week too which is the average length of an HOU/Oil rally.

Tomorrow we will find out. Next stop for HOD based on these numbers is back to $47. :eek:

ORLY?!

All I know is, oil better not rally forcing me to get stopped out and then pull a quick reversal. I absolutely fucking hate it when that happens. :whipped: :guns:

[civic_rida]

i really hope your right lol.

[Generic]

Originally posted by civic_rida
i really hope your right lol.

x2

[Z_Fan]

Oil at $43.21 right now.

I think at close of the market, not NYMEX...it was $42.40.

So, that's bad for HOD! :poosie: :dunno:

Fawk.

[bigbadboss101]

Oil prices up 0.85 or so from close and gold is way down. Both bad for me.

[SilverRex]

^
ive said yesterday take your pick oil and market up and gold down or oil and market down gold up

however i am happy that gold is dipping, the more it dip the better but that could only mean the market is on a come back.

oil had a few key resistance one at 42.8 and one at 43.50, but I guess a few of us jumped the gun and went HOD when oil is at 42.8, and now that it is at 43.50 it will be interesting and the line has to hold here otherwise oil is bullish towards 50

there is a few things that it could play out, it could push for a false breakout then complete shit the bed and move lower is my hope. if it does break up then I have to get out and turn from short on rallies to buy on dips.

right now if market was to open it 43.50 oil is about 33.2 in HOD down about 3.5% if it crosses 44 oil i will get out. 43.50 is also the upper channel of 40.2 and 41.50, then 43.50.

gold resume its down trend yesterday after retesting its 50% retracement from the fall, it goto the low of 936, now first stage magic number is 930 so basically we are there. I do believe it should be volatile around this area because this is the breakout of the oct high and was a signal that caused gold to go from 930 to 1006. while my ideal target entry is around 900 and 875 I believe we will see some support around 930 first.

getting ready to buy more HGU if it dips into the 9s

[bigbadboss101]

Whoa, oil went from 0.85 up to about 0.17 for a while, but now it's at 1.32 up. Ouch for bears:dunno:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

Stopped out of HOD at open. :dunno:

[civic_rida]

:banghead:

[Z_Fan]

Glad I bought some BAC at close.

Covers my loss on HOD.

Very surprised at oil price...it's gonna tank tomorrow or perhaps late today IMO. Up too much too fast...

[bigbadboss101]

At what point r u guys gonna sell BAC? It tends to pick up just before close.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
At what point r u guys gonna sell BAC? It tends to pick up just before close.

$20.00. Just like that guy says...the one who said $30 oil when it was in the hundreds...he says $20 BAC...so there you go.
:D

[civic_rida]

when do you think one should get into hod.

[bigbadboss101]

We might see sub 30 HOD. When is safe to buy more who knows. I have 4 positions already.

[SilverRex]

Ok

market is going for a rally, but from everything that I read, it still calling for a lower low before a bigger advance

they are calling S&P to hit 600 and would that mean dow in the 6000? it is possbility.

but once do, the stock market will begin a multi month rally.

GOLD ALERT

weekly chart is forming a huge perfert reversal and 1006 happens to be the upper trend channel trendline, the bottom on the multi year channel low is situated at around 817 currently. It was also this line that gold bounced off 800 and began a huge rally.

if you zoom in we get alot of different supports drawn all over the place from 900, 870, 850 etc.

all I can say is, I dont think we will see a new gold high until the next major gold rally which wont begin until some in september/october. And gold will most likely consolidate and bottom out some where between 825-875 area from now until year end.

That is not to say it wont suddenly rally because if the market were to dive, gold will no doubt surge again.

I think we have enter a bear cycle for gold which means you will see alot off sell pressure on rallies all the way until year end. and logically speaking I'm putting out a target for a 50% retracement from the 618-1006 gold price and that is around 850.

so for gold bulls, get ready to load up gold, gold shares or what ever it may be when gold hits around that area. then hold it for 6-12 months.

[civic_rida]

i just picked up some hod at 30.89 call me an idiot please.

[Z_Fan]

Wow, 3 days ago if you would have told me $45 oil by the end of the week I would have thought you were a little crazy.

Very unpredictable I guess. Hmmm, I wonder if it will hit $50.

GTFO of HOD at $32.65 this morning is looking great now.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
i just picked up some hod at 30.89 call me an idiot please.

Idiot.