Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Unikkatil]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Ok, what to do today? Yesterday I repurchased BAC after I sold for profit. Also sold my HGU and now it's up. Sold a position of HOD. Now got some $ to spend.

How about the citi bank shares and Maybe some more BAC?

[max_boost]

I told you guys to stay away from the US banks! Shareholders aren't over-reacting. They are sell the inevitable, government take over! lol

[997TT]

HOD at $32.70 now .... So you like it here hey Max?

with a strategy of averaging down if need be

[civic_rida]

And even BofA, saddled with the disastrous purchase of Merrill Lynch (see "Divorce - Bank of America Style"), could find a clear path out of the muck, although that's far from certain. The smart money is betting that Bank of America will soon launch a big asset sale, including Merrill Lynch's prime brokerage, which caters to hedge funds; reportedly, it has already put private bank First Republic on the block. That could give BofA sufficient capital to sidestep a bailout. Then the bank could rely on its powerful nationwide low-cost consumer franchise to rebuild its balance sheet. "Investors underestimated BofA," says Whitney. "BofA should be able to start building capital by the middle of 2009

[max_boost]

That's my plan. Put a small position in now, if HOD decides to take off, so be it.

If HOD drops, price floor is right around $24 which equals to $50 oil. Don't panic. Oil can not sustain itself at $50 and will crash hard so leave positions open to average down.

At least that's how I'm playing it.

[civic_rida]

I would stay away from hod at 32 dollars.

[DJ_NAV]

i would put more into hod if i had more.. its cheap!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I would stay away from hod at 32 dollars.

stay away?

anyways oil climbed back to 44 and that was to retest the downside breakout so in theory we should see it move towards 41.50 and its bearish until oil can get back above 44.55 so I would place my stop above that

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil3.jpg

[civic_rida]

i think a better buy for hod would be in the 30 range

[DJ_NAV]

so is bac a buy now since its 4.49?

[civic_rida]

nope but i have so much im going to just ride it out.

[max_boost]

Does it matter if you buy HOD at $32 or $27 if the end result is going to be $40-$45 with upside of $50+? ;)

civic_rida, don't say I didn't warn you about BAC! I do hope it works out for you but you know my take on those zombie banks!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
i think a better buy for hod would be in the 30 range

if it ever gets back to 30 then that would be bullish again for oil and technically it could be ready to challenge and break thru 45 oil

[bigbadboss101]

GXS went wild. Had a chance to pick it up at $1.6x earlier this morning but was cheap over couple pennies.

[SilverRex]

GOLD alert,

gold after testing 960 (1st resistance and 200 day) now is breaking down below 930

this could be bad because market could rally and rally means oil up

I got got in HOD at 31, and if it hits 31 i am out.

im happy man when gold/silver dips to new low

[civic_rida]

cough cough who was right lol

[SilverRex]

^

well market can turn on anyone anytime myfriend, what ever it is doing now suppose to be the same pattern when oil dive from 50 and 48, however since the market is already making new 52 week lows, these lows will no doubt attract buying.

so could oil continue its pattern? or will it finally break out of its funk. oil isnt dead yet, only if it can get back above 44 will the bear be concern,

i am watchin gold/silver as how it moves can show you the direction of the market, gold only briefly dipped under 930 now is back up to 935. This is a key area because if it closes under 930 on the 1 hour chart, that could be a signal its heading lower and thus market will rebound when finds out moving away from the yellow metal.

however silver pull backed with a very HARD reversal then we oil bear will be safe for the momonet

[ryeguy252]

what do you guys use as a brokerage to trade? I have a waterhouse account, or is there a better one you guys would recommend for day trading?

[jonnycat]

I'm using RBC, but am such a NOOB that my opinion isn't valid. I think e trade is only $19.995 a trade for less than 150 trades a year. RBC is charging min $28.95/trade

[DJ_NAV]

questrade is 1 cent per stock, min. $5 per trade and max $10 per trade.

[KleanCord]

I was looking at Quest trade. Why are their rates so much lower than any other Canadian trading broker.

I am on Etrade right now and it is a flat $19.99 per trade. But after 30 trades per quarter you drop into the $9.99 range. +150 and it is $6.99.

I like the service but if Quest offers reliable service and a comparable platform what is the downside? anyone with a Quest account that can give me their experiences.

[SilverRex]

GOLD update

powerful reversal with gold at 930, now at 937, so is silver.

I read another article that suggest 900-925 is the ultimate low, and gold did touch 926 15 mins ago.

while I know 930 will provide a very good short term support, and my ideal entry is in the 850s, the matter of fact is what if it does not get there?

that is why you have to start scaling in your position starting at 930, 900 and 875.

for oil, im surprise how strong the bulls are taking this, if oil gets above 44.55 then im out. I'll gladly take my break even from late yesterday.

yes some of you can hold till 50, yes when it hits 50 there will be sells off there, im just pointing out the obvious, technically oil is suppose to head down, but it didnt, and its about to put in a reversal that will throw all the bears off the cliff. again oil bears are fine unless it gets above 44.55

[DJ_NAV]

^I'm not sure what the disadvantages are with questrade. I just use google to follow my stocks. Questrade has other platforms that you can use for which you have to pay a fix amount per month.. like $50 or sumthing. But I just use the free one. it does the job.

[SilverRex]

this is what im worried about



I want gold to hit 850 but this dude is calling the pattern a cup and handle with down side limited to 900-925, next leg up to 1240.

while no doubt in my mind we will see the upper target, but it sucks if 930 is all the fall of gold can muster. I really want lower

oh well I just have to suck it up and make less

but the bigger picture is if this guy is right, then the stock market is going to fall further
:banghead:http://goldseek.com/news/GoldenJackass/2009/2-27gj/1.jpg

compare to this of what happens if the cup and handle is real

[IMG]http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/cup2.jpg

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
GOLD update

powerful reversal with gold at 930, now at 937, so is silver.

I read another article that suggest 900-925 is the ultimate low, and gold did touch 926 15 mins ago.

while I know 930 will provide a very good short term support, and my ideal entry is in the 850s, the matter of fact is what if it does not get there?

that is why you have to start scaling in your position starting at 930, 900 and 875.

for oil, im surprise how strong the bulls are taking this, if oil gets above 44.55 then im out. I'll gladly take my break even from late yesterday.

yes some of you can hold till 50, yes when it hits 50 there will be sells off there, im just pointing out the obvious, technically oil is suppose to head down, but it didnt, and its about to put in a reversal that will throw all the bears off the cliff. again oil bears are fine unless it gets above 44.55

:rofl: The last line of your post, throw all the bears off the cliff.

It's definitely a tough game to play, that's why I entered a 1/3 of my position into HOD at $32.50 because there's an opportunity for the bears to win this battle and send oil lower. However, should the bears lose and oil march towards $50, thus sending HOD to the $24 area, this will be a tremendous buying opportunity. At this point, no doubt we'll see oil move down from $50 to $35 and see HOD move from $24 to $47 via intra day movements.

If your average cost on HOD is under $30, there is nothing to worry about.

The recession will deepen and economic data will continue to hold down the oil price. It can't move any higher. The Democrats aren't going to start a war. Unless OPEC wants to put their people in famines, they can't cut production anymore.

Another thing to consider is, if the Democrats move towards any sort of protectionist policy, that will crush global trade and will hurt the oil price even more.

[RX_EVOLV]

very interesting article on yahoo today!! maybe worst is still to come!

Europe's Crisis: Much Bigger Than Subprime, Worse Than U.S.

Posted Feb 27, 2009 08:00am EST by Henry Blodget
Related: UBS, CS, DB, HBC
John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors, was among the few analysts whose forecasts for 2008 proved accurate. Mauldin, author of the popular "Thoughts from the Frontline" e-letter, joined us to discuss the economic situation in Eastern Europe.

Scroll down to read highlights from Mauldin's analysis, and click "more" to embed the video.

From The Business Insider:

If you think things are bad here, take a quick peek at what's going on across the pond:

The Telegraph: Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.

"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.

In Poland, 60pc of mortgages are in Swiss francs. The zloty has just halved against the franc. Hungary, the Balkans, the Baltics, and Ukraine are all suffering variants of this story. As an act of collective folly – by lenders and borrowers – it matches America's sub-prime debacle. There is a crucial difference, however. European banks are on the hook for both. US banks are not.

Almost all East bloc debts are owed to West Europe, especially Austrian, Swedish, Greek, Italian, and Belgian banks. En plus, Europeans account for an astonishing 74pc of the entire $4.9 trillion portfolio of loans to emerging markets.

They are five times more exposed to this latest bust than American or Japanese banks, and they are 50pc more leveraged (IMF data).

Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.

Whether it takes months, or just weeks, the world is going to discover that Europe's financial system is sunk, and that there is no EU Federal Reserve yet ready to act as a lender of last resort or to flood the markets with emergency stimulus.

A note from Strategic Energy, as quoted by John Mauldin:

"The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan -- and Turkey next -- and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights. Its $16bn rescue of Ukraine has unravelled. The country -- facing a 12% contraction in GDP after the collapse of steel prices -- is hurtling towards default, leaving Unicredit, Raffeisen and ING in the lurch. Pakistan wants another $7.6bn. Latvia's central bank governor has declared his economy "clinically dead" after it shrank 10.5% in the fourth quarter. Protesters have smashed the treasury and stormed parliament.

"'This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s,' said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank. 'There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don't have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU.' Europe is already in deeper trouble than the ECB or EU leaders ever expected. Germany contracted at an annual rate of 8.4% in the fourth quarter. If Deutsche Bank is correct, the economy will have shrunk by nearly 9% before the end of this year. This is the sort of level that stokes popular revolt.

"The implications are obvious. Berlin is not going to rescue Ireland, Spain, Greece and Portugal as the collapse of their credit bubbles leads to rising defaults, or rescue Italy by accepting plans for EU "union bonds" should the debt markets take fright at the rocketing trajectory of Italy's public debt (hitting 112pc of GDP next year, just revised up from 101pc -- big change), or rescue Austria from its Habsburg adventurism. So we watch and wait as the lethal brush fires move closer. If one spark jumps across the eurozone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days. Are the firemen ready?"

This is why some folks think the dollar is going to remain strong over the coming months: Because the rest of the world is falling apart even faster than we are.

Just as the global economy wasn't "decoupled" at the beginning of 2007, however (when the majority of Wall Street strategists believed that it was), it's not "decoupled" now. So the collapse of Eastern Europe--and, with it, the Western European banks--would almost certainly jump across the pond.

John Mauldin summarizes:

Eastern Europe has borrowed an estimated $1.7 trillion, primarily from Western European banks. And much of Eastern Europe is already in a deep recession bordering on depression. A great deal of that $1.7 trillion is at risk, especially the portion that is in Swiss francs. It is a story that could easily be as big as the US subprime problem.

In Poland, as an example, 60% of mortgages are in Swiss francs. When times are good and currencies are stable, it is nice to have a low-interest Swiss mortgage. And as a requirement for joining the euro currency union, Poland has been required to keep its currency stable against the euro. This gave borrowers comfort that they could borrow at low interest in francs or euros, rather than at much higher local rates.

But in an echo of teaser-rate subprimes here in the US, there is a problem. Along came the synchronized global recession and large Polish current-account trade deficits, which were three times those of the US in terms of GDP, just to give us some perspective. Of course, if you are not a reserve currency this is going to bring some pressure to bear. And it did. The Polish zloty has basically dropped in half compared to the Swiss franc. That means if you are a mortgage holder, your house payment just doubled. That same story is repeated all over the Baltics and Eastern Europe.

Austrian banks have lent $289 billion (230 billion euros) to Eastern Europe. That is 70% of Austrian GDP. Much of it is in Swiss francs they borrowed from Swiss banks. Even a 10% impairment (highly optimistic) would bankrupt the Austrian financial system, says the Austrian finance minister, Joseph Proll. In the US we speak of banks that are too big to be allowed to fail. But the reality is that we could nationalize them if we needed to do so. (And for the record, I favor nationalization and swift privatization. We cannot afford a repeat of Japan's zombie banks.)

The problem is that in Europe there are many banks that are simply too big to save. The size of the banks in terms of the GDP of the country in which they are domiciled is all out of proportion. For my American readers, it would be as if the bank bailout package were in excess of $14 trillion (give or take a few trillion). In essence, there are small countries which have very large banks (relatively speaking) that have gone outside their own borders to make loans and have done so at levels of leverage which are far in excess of the most leveraged US banks. The ability of the "host" countries to nationalize their banks is simply not there. They are going to have to have help from larger countries. But as we will see below, that help is problematical.

As John Mauldin explains, fixing the problem in Europe will be even more difficult than it is here:

This has the potential to be a real crisis, far worse than in the US. Without concerted action on the part of the ECB and the European countries that are relatively strong, much of Europe could fall further into what would feel like a depression. There is a problem, though. Imagine being a politician in Germany, for instance. Your GDP is down by 8% last quarter. Unemployment is rising. Budgets are under pressure, as tax collections are down. And you are going to be asked to vote in favor of bailing out (pick a small country)? What will the voters who put you into office think?

We are going to find out this year whether the European Union is like the Three Musketeers. Are they "all for one and one for all?" or is it every country for itself? My bet (or hope) is that it is the former. Dissolution at this point would be devastating for all concerned, and for the world economy at large. Many of us in the US don't think much about Europe or the rest of the world, but without a healthy Europe, much of our world trade would vanish.

However, getting all the parties to agree on what to do will take some serious leadership, which does not seem to be in evidence at this point. The US almost waited too long to respond to our crisis, but we had the "luxury" of only needing to get a few people to agree as to the nature of the problems (whether they were wrong or right is beside the point). And we have a central bank that could act decisively.

As I understand the European agreement, that situation does not exist in Europe. For the ECB to print money as the US and the UK (and much of the non-EU developed world) will do, takes agreement from all the member countries, and right now it appears the German and Dutch governments are resisting such an idea.

As I write this (on a plane on my way to Orlando) German finance minister Peer Steinbruck has said it would be intolerable to let fellow EMU members fall victim to the global financial crisis. "We have a number of countries in the eurozone that are clearly getting into trouble on their payments," he said. "Ireland is in a very difficult situation.

"The euro-region treaties don't foresee any help for insolvent states, but in reality the others would have to rescue those running into difficulty."

That is a hopeful sign. Ireland is indeed in dire straits, and is particularly vulnerable as it is going to have to spend a serious percentage of its GDP on bailing out its banks.

It is not clear how it will all play out. But there is real risk of Europe dragging the world into a longer, darker night. Their banks not only have exposure to our US foibles, much of which has already been written off, but now many banks will have to contend with massive losses from emerging-market loans, which could be even larger than the losses stemming from US problems. Plus, they are more leveraged.

[ckangarloo]

I have averaged down HOD as far I as I can but being in at $39 isn't favorable. Can't believe how much I have in this thing right now.
In the two months I have been trading HOU/HOD, I have yet to loose anything with the bear, the bull on the other hand...
If only I knew then what I know now about these beta pro ETFs!
Sam, your doom and gloom words are making me feel better. SR, thanks again for your tech analysis with respect to oil.

[SilverRex]

oh did I mention that goldman sach has covered all their short contract on gold. all of them. I think their forecast is 2000 gold in 09.

[civic_rida]

February was such a bad month for me.
Huge losses.
I dunno how much longer I can do this.
Might just go buy a house.

[SilverRex]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12585.htm

gold bulls

looks like in the course of history we gold price has seen many cup and handle bullish pattern, also pattern within a pattern, and none failed so far

looks like the breakout above 1000 will indeed porpel it towards 2000. the 900 area is simply a pull back before taking off.

I may just cash out oil, going to focus all my funds on the metal stuff.

dont say you didnt see this coming

[yoda124]

all time volume record being set today for one stock.Citi trading 1.3+ billion already.:eek:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Thanks for posting the article RX_EVOLV. Haven't followed their situation very much but seems like they are having the same issues. The amount of bad debt from the Eastern bloc will soon bankrupt European banks too.

What's next?

The gold standard?

Catalyst towards 1 world currency?

Time to buy gold for future wealth preservation and guard against hyper inflation?

If this all plays out, < $1000 gold is going to be one of the greatest opportunities of all time.

This is insane.............:eek: :nut: :dunno:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

European Monetary System at Breaking Point

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9022.html

[LBG]

sooo hey..... HBU is gold bull and HGU is gold bear? im a noobie help? lol thanks

[djayz]

Originally posted by LBG
sooo hey..... HBU is gold bull and HGU is gold bear? im a noobie help? lol thanks

HBU tracks gold price
HGU tracks gold company stock prices
Both bull

HBD is the bear of the gold price and
HGD is the gold company bear etf

[LBG]

Originally posted by djayz


HBU tracks gold price
HGU tracks gold company stock prices

ohhh thanks man, so you guys are talking about which one? HBU?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so if gold is at 2k

what does it mean for oil?

oil will most likely move with the market, while very long term the demand in china and ever decreasing reserves will move oil prices back to triple digit territory but it could take some time. in the next year or two the max oil I think you will see is 70.

if gold is at 2000, I think gold stocks will be all hitting all time highs, and if you use the hui index as an indicator, its at 290, its peak was at 519. Even if it just goes back to 519 that would be 76% gain and if you invest in HGU in current price say at 12 dollars, that would be around 30 dollars HGU. And that is if they dont go higher but at 2000 gold I think gold stocks will at least double the index to 1000, that means HGU will go from 30 to 100 dollars. Yes better believe it.

HGU will be move 8-9 times from current level. That is why if HGU was to dip lower I will be doubling up my position.

if you worry that gold stocks could product another sell off like october, then it is safer to buy HBU because HBU tracks gold directly, so if gold was to go from 900 to 1800, HBU is about 17 right now, and so it will go from 17 to 57 dollars about 3-4 times

[Canmorite]

European banks are apparently sitting on £16 TRILLION worth of toxic assets. This article is really interesting. The £16 trillion dollar figure was removed, but the number is still in the headline and in the 'related articles' directly to the right of the 4th paragraph :dunno:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/4590512/European-banks-may-need-16.3-trillion-bail-out-EC-dcoument-warns.html

Switzerland is in trouble too. If UBS goes under, there is no way they could bail them out.

[yoda124]

anyone looking at citi?I think it has more downside to go.Downtrend line and next fib below meet around 1.05ish.Might short it near close.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[djayz]

Just picked up a chunk of HGU at 12.15. Anybody else taking positions?

[max_boost]

Yep, just picked up some HBU and HGU for the long haul.

Not surprised with the oil rally, it's playing out like it always does. It really wants to test $50 which is perfect. Get your money ready for $24-$30 HOD boys. Don't miss out on the ride up to $45 after.

[Z_Fan]

Just curious, where would HOD be if Oil, at the end of March, was sitting at 50% of it's value of 6 months ago. A relatively short time?

And what would HOU be at?

:dunno:

[RX_EVOLV]

SR thanks for the heads up on market rising/gold falling/ oil rising. I sold out of my $30.84 HOD from yesterday almost immediately after @ $32.60 and its looking pretty good right now hah.

I also picked up some HBU like you guys, was going to pick some up at ~11.50 yesterday but ended up going w/ HOD. oh well.

[RX_EVOLV]

and now my bmoinvestorline is down.... anyone elses Bmo down?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Just curious, where would HOD be if Oil, at the end of March, was sitting at 50% of it's value of 6 months ago. A relatively short time?

And what would HOU be at?

:dunno:

Well we wouldn't know because it depends how it moves daily and how high and how low oil gets, where the rollover is price wise and how it moves afterwards etc.

Anyway, HBU at $17.00 and HGU at $12.00

Will not sell, only add more to the position. Thinking long term on this one.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
and now my bmoinvestorline is down.... anyone else's Bmo down?

Bank Of Montreal just closed their doors. Just another victim of the financial crisis. I'm sure you'll get a letter in the mail about it...

:poosie:

[slick2404]

good time to be averaging down on BAC. I'm in 2000 @ 4.13 hopefully it picks up in the next week.

[Z_Fan]

I'm sure no one watches SNO a whole bunch lately, but something is fishy today with SNO. (Last 2 days actually) For a LONG time, 0.025 was an unreasonable ask, and right now there is 0.025 146000 on the bid! With a 0.035 ask.

Hmmmmm...I wonder if some people know something and are trying to snap up the shares or what...cuz for a long time you couldn't have given your shares away for 0.015.

Nothing on their website.

Oh, and I have a "limit" buy in on SNO and it doesn't show up in my level 2 quotes. Example, 100000 limit 0.01 but nothing shows up in the bid? Anyone know why?

[BigMass]

Just remember, BAC and C common stock are worth virtually zero. Don’t get stuck when people eventually realize that and stop day trading the stock.

[Z_Fan]

Well, I think BAC is worth far more than C.

But anyhow, as long as there are half a billion shares being traded per day on average for BAC, and C is today crazy, I think it's OK to daytrade.

I put some cash in to both actually. Both long term see what happens kind of scenario. Small amounts. And then I have a little BAC to flip with if I can...

[civic_rida]

bac sucks :banghead:

[slick2404]

Anyone couple of picks that thankfully been doing well for me the past week is Crew Energy along with Precision Drilling. Without their gains I'd be in the red across the board.

Anyone following Sherritt? (S.TO)

[max_boost]

It's just a matter of time before BAC and C start trading in FRE and FNM territory. ;)

[civic_rida]

The fact that bac was worth 30+ dollars and payed out a divident of 64 cents 6 months ago. All i can do is dream and hope it happens again someday.

[KleanCord]

I was looking at Sherrit. Drastically oversold, I believe they have some debt issues. But bottom line is nickel is not a hot sector right now.

Nickel has had a lot of recent finds which have boosted the supply. However, they also have reduced energy costs.

Coal is also trading quite low.

Right now I am more interested in Copper. I have been playing around with Quadra (TSE:QUA) for some time.

Copper has looked like it has bottom and has locked itself into an ascending triangle with strong resistance around 162, and the lows keep getting higher.

Plus the seasonality strength for copper is from late Feb to early May, China has been buying supplies, stockpiles have gone down for the first time in a while, and it acts as an indirect infrastructure play.


Out of all the base metals copper is the only one I am somewhat familiar with so if anyone has anything better to comment on Sherrit please feel free.

[civic_rida]

Fannie and Freddie are the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, owning or guaranteeing about $5.3 trillion of the $12 trillion in residential mortgage debt. They now account for about 75 percent of the financing for new residential mortgages.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[KleanCord]

All this talk with Gold and I just had to ask a couple of question I ask myself every day about gold.

1) To me it appears that Gold has just formed the head and is starting on the neckline to the shoulders with downward target to 900. On a larger scale it looks like a larger head and shoulders forming with 800 and possibly lower being the target. I am not familiar with retractment percentages so I have no idea what proper targets would be according to Fibonacci rules. But none the less I see a head and shoulders more predominantly than the rarely mentioned cup and handle.

2) Also at what point do people keep hearing about how Gold at $1000 is cheap, just like we heard $140 oil would soon be considered cheap. Perhaps it is the contrarian in me, but when people I know who got badly burned by finally putting their money in a Dow 1400+ and bought junior oil companies in 2008 and missed the run up, are the ones all over Gold, that scares me. Especially when the natural demand for gold (ie jewelry, high end electronics, etc.) is at an all time low.

3) Gold doesn't heat my house, it doesn't pay a dividend, I can't drive it, and I can't eat it. By definition it has to be purely speculative. Unless you believe it will replace fiat money. I like hearing about money system failure theories but does anyone out there actually want this? If the vast majority of the world relies on a system and believes in it, it will be hard to pressed to outright fail. Plus the only reason why money is different from gold according to theory is gold has an intrinsic value. Again who placed that value on it? In that instance it is no different from paper money with exception you mine it, so why not silver, or why not something more useful like food or oil, or even why not guns and ammo.

I am not shorting gold, but at the same time I am not compelled to jump into the party at this point for the reasons mentioned above.

[RX_EVOLV]

^^^ IMO it is too risky to hold HOU/HOD over the weekend, almost like a lottery draw. Better to wake up early and re-enter Monday morning regardless IMO

[e36bmw///]

nm

[civic_rida]

Anyone else holding bac?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KleanCord
All this talk with Gold and I just had to ask a couple of question I ask myself every day about gold.

1) To me it appears that Gold has just formed the head and is starting on the neckline to the shoulders with downward target to 900. On a larger scale it looks like a larger head and shoulders forming with 800 and possibly lower being the target. I am not familiar with retractment percentages so I have no idea what proper targets would be according to Fibonacci rules. But none the less I see a head and shoulders more predominantly than the rarely mentioned cup and handle.

2) Also at what point do people keep hearing about how Gold at $1000 is cheap, just like we heard $140 oil would soon be considered cheap. Perhaps it is the contrarian in me, but when people I know who got badly burned by finally putting their money in a Dow 1400+ and bought junior oil companies in 2008 and missed the run up, are the ones all over Gold, that scares me. Especially when the natural demand for gold (ie jewelry, high end electronics, etc.) is at an all time low.

3) Gold doesn't heat my house, it doesn't pay a dividend, I can't drive it, and I can't eat it. By definition it has to be purely speculative. Unless you believe it will replace fiat money. I like hearing about money system failure theories but does anyone out there actually want this? If the vast majority of the world relies on a system and believes in it, it will be hard to pressed to outright fail. Plus the only reason why money is different from gold according to theory is gold has an intrinsic value. Again who placed that value on it? In that instance it is no different from paper money with exception you mine it, so why not silver, or why not something more useful like food or oil, or even why not guns and ammo.

I am not shorting gold, but at the same time I am not compelled to jump into the party at this point for the reasons mentioned above.


interesting, I see no head and shoulder at all, and you cant compare oil and gold, when oil peaked at 147 it was the 1st time it was at that level, hence bubble bursting for being overbought, but gold on the other hand, 2008 was suppose to be the drop all end all for gold unfortunately it find its way back to 1000 which means, there is a few things that could trigger back to this level, either it can put in a double top as most would fear or its about to break it, gold has been putting in the cup and handle since 03, then one in 05 and now another one in 09, plus the 1030 to 681 low is a bigger pull back after it broke out of the cup and handle dating back to 1980


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1234452025.php

read for yourself and decide what gold is doing. Yes gold can go back to 250, yes oil can goto 10, yes DOW can goto 2000 or 30000 for that matter. until the market proves me wrong, gold technically is lining up for a bigger push higher. some countries is already talking a new currency that has gold in each coin. and china which is freakin out with its US reserve is slowly nibbing away gold on each dips.

if gold suddenly becomes extreme bearish, we will all see it. yes you cant eat with gold but you can exchange it for cash because it is money. plus gold maintains its value over the course of history. 1 dollar worth of gold 200 years ago is probablly still worth 1 dollars today purchase power wise. and 1 dollar a hundred years ago is now only worth 6 cents. Do your math

[BigMass]

Originally posted by SilverRex



interesting, I see no head and shoulder at all, and you cant compare oil and gold, when oil peaked at 147 it was the 1st time it was at that level, hence bubble bursting for being overbought, but gold on the other hand, 2008 was suppose to be the drop all end all for gold unfortunately it find its way back to 1000 which means, there is a few things that could trigger back to this level, either it can put in a double top as most would fear or its about to break it, gold has been putting in the cup and handle since 03, then one in 05 and now another one in 09, plus the 1030 to 681 low is a bigger pull back after it broke out of the cup and handle dating back to 1980


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1234452025.php

read for yourself and decide what gold is doing. Yes gold can go back to 250, yes oil can goto 10, yes DOW can goto 2000 or 30000 for that matter. until the market proves me wrong, gold technically is lining up for a bigger push higher. some countries is already talking a new currency that has gold in each coin. and china which is freakin out with its US reserve is slowly nibbing away gold on each dips.

if gold suddenly becomes extreme bearish, we will all see it. yes you cant eat with gold but you can exchange it for cash because it is money. plus gold maintains its value over the course of history. 1 dollar worth of gold 200 years ago is probablly still worth 1 dollars today purchase power wise. and 1 dollar a hundred years ago is now only worth 6 cents. Do your math

Also you don't just value gold in US dollars which is in a bubble right now due to deleveraging. The price of gold in other currencies is making new highs daily.

If I purchased gold when it was at it’s high one year ago for $1040 I would be ahead now even though gold is at $940 because I buy gold in Canadian not US dollars.

Gold has been my best investment so far on a consistent basis because it has preserved my wealth. Not cash, not real-estate, not stocks have done that lately.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
damn, now im wondering if i made a good decision selling HOD

hoping it does go in the 20s on monday so i can buy it again

It will go into the $20's so get your cash ready. We should have a couple more days of oil bouncing around in the $45-$50 range but by Wed/Thurs next week it's going to collapse. Any position in HOD under $30 will be a good buy. If you are patient enough you can might be able to get it in the $24-26 range depending how high oil gets.

My HOD chart again :D


Sept 2: $5.30
Sept 16: $7.33
Sept 23: $5.37

Oct 28: $13.25
Nov 4: $10.28

Nov 20: $20.50
Nov 28: $15.30

Dec 05: $25.00
Dec 15: $20.55

Dec 24: $31.36
Jan 06: $16.18

Jan 20: $29.75
Jan 26: $23.13

Feb 18: $47.19
Feb 27: $31.58

http://www.members.shaw.ca/samtang310/big.chart.gif

In the past 3 months, oil has peaked at:

$50.05 Dec 15------>$43.60 close Dec 16
$50.57 Jan 06------>$42.63 close Jan 07
$48.59 Jan 26------>$41.58 Jan 27

http://www.members.shaw.ca/samtang310/oil.gif

If oil somehow breaks past $50 and marches towards $60, help me god lol :rofl:


Originally posted by civic_rida
Anyone else holding bac?

Just you and Z_Fan.

Don't worry man, you'll have a chance to get out of BAC. It'll probably rally next week on any positive news so just be ready.

[hattonlynch]

its oil season boys and oil has been moving up past 3 days...get ready boys
-many gold stocks are in the green even as gold retreats.....good sign for gold! As for the guy above doubting gold.....all you gotta do is take a look around, look at all the people saying buy gold buy gold, i'm hearing this on the radio, on tv, its being advertised everywhere...that is a sign of a mania..and im going to cash in on it (bought gold at around 750). exploration stocks, junior producers ftw

[hattonlynch]

-oh...and short sell SLM...look at market cap, what their loans are worth....if more then 3% of the students they loan to default, they are fucked. check this out, its going to zero.

[ryeguy252]

I thought we couldn't short equities any more?

[SilverRex]

"This is not a bubble [in gold]. The only bubble that is ongoing is the fantasy land that all is okay. Gold is undergoing a healthy pullback, backfilling after rising from $750 to $1,000 over the past couple months. The $900 area exhibits excellent support and a continued influx of investment capital will continue to support the market. $1,000 was a strong technical barrier and it was played by many trader-technicians. I believe that we will be building a firm support in the $900 area from where gold can then make another assault on the $1,000 area. It is my belief that gold is heading for $1,200 and higher in the coming months."

[lasthuzzah]

Ha ha, I came to my senses. I'm not going to buy more shares unless Max says to BUY HOD BUY HOD! :)

haha, thanks for the good times anyways guys! I think I might just go to Vegas and blow the profit I made.

[RX_EVOLV]

Originally posted by lasthuzzah
I'm not going to buy more shares unless Max says to BUY HOD BUY HOD! :)



So Monday???

Lol sorry MB buts its pretty funny. I'm pretty sure i'm going to have a dream about your HOD charts one of these days

[Canmorite]

HOD looks decent from here. Low risk too. Oil bumping up against ~45...

[max_boost]

Oil might have another 2-3 days of strength left and that will be it for the Crude/HOU run this time around. I believe it man. Look at the charts, they don't lie.

It's impossible to pick the top for oil, could be anywhere from $47-$50 (seriously, it's not going to break $50) which equals anywhere from $24-$28 HOD. So have your buy orders set. Upside is huge. Oil is going to fall and re-test $35. That's going to send HOD easily to the $40-45 range.

OPEC cuts won't be able to curb demand destruction. The markets are under so much pressure, contracting economy, worsening unemployment data, consumer confidence combined with the housing and financial sector will continue to drag everything down with it.

I picked up a small position of HOD at $32.50 and have buy orders set for $28 and $25. If I don't get in at these positions, I'll just average up. Simply put, if you can get in under $30, you are set.

Where can things go wrong? If oil breaks out past $50 and its new trading range is $50-$55. That will screw all of us HOD holders but I just can't see that happening, no way! :eek:

[hattonlynch]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oil might have another 2-3 days of strength left and that will be it for the Crude/HOU run this time around. I believe it man. Look at the charts, they don't lie.

It's impossible to pick the top for oil, could be anywhere from $47-$50 (seriously, it's not going to break $50) which equals anywhere from $24-$28 HOD. So have your buy orders set. Upside is huge. Oil is going to fall and re-test $35. That's going to send HOD easily to the $40-45 range.

OPEC cuts won't be able to curb demand destruction. The markets are under so much pressure, contracting economy, worsening unemployment data, consumer confidence combined with the housing and financial sector will continue to drag everything down with it.

I picked up a small position of HOD at $32.50 and have buy orders set for $28 and $25. If I don't get in at these positions, I'll just average up. Simply put, if you can get in under $30, you are set.

Where can things go wrong? If oil breaks out past $50 and its new trading range is $50-$55. That will screw all of us HOD holders but I just can't see that happening, no way! :eek:
Look at the gold/oil ratio (it stands at 21 right now). Historically it always moves back to 10. I think people will continue to rush into gold forcing that ratio back to around 15, which will mean oil will be somwhere around 60.00

[max_boost]

Like you said, historically speaking.

We are talking about the short term as in next week. :D

There will be strength in gold no doubt because the equity markets in the US are falling. Since oil is tied to the markets, you can expect it to crumble too.

Ideally I want the Dow to rally for 2 days so we can get $50oil and $24 HOD. Then we can all sit back and watch oil fall to at least $35 and HOD rise to at least $40.

Everything will unravel in the next two weeks and we'll find out whether this whole max_boost prediction, trend reading graph/price history is right or not. lol

I know there are some reading this thread who can't wait to jump in and throw their $0.02 should I be wrong.

I need the 'click' controller so I can FFWD two weeks because I am anxious hahahaha

[lasthuzzah]

I'm with you Max. If you say $24 HOD is golden, then I'll buy some as soon as it starts to get close to that amount.

I personally don't think oil has the power to bust out of this trading range. All it can do is hit the top and come tumbling down.

I for one and willing to gamble on that range.

[Proyecto2000]

im tempted to buy HOD now after reading all these posts :P

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, a lot of people think $50 will be the high for oil for the majority of this year, only going up near the last quarter. I've been reading a lot of shit about this, but the way I see it, ALL these articles are people who are selling something. They want you to behave in a specific way so they can profit from your actions. :dunno:

Anyhow, I too think we will see thirty dollar oil very soon. Probably inside 3 weeks time. Will be interesting. I'm hoping for oil to go up Mon-Wed and then for the supreme tankage to start happening...again...

[civic_rida]

Im hoping bac goes up lol.

[Canmorite]

Dow futures broke through 7000. Wow.

[Z_Fan]

Tomorrow could be yet another day where the markets take a 4% loss overall. Gonna be nasty!

Unfortunately, I have BAC and I think it's gonna take an absolute shit kicking tomorrow. My plan was long term for that one though, so I guess I shouldn't worry too much.

I wonder what C is going to do...did anyone buy it the other day? It could fall in to pennies. Will be interesting...

Oil was down quite a bit too when I checked a few hours ago. HOD should open considerably higher. :dunno:

Well, I will buy something ... and attempt to flip it in as little time as possible. Hahaha. :devil:

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Tomorrow could be yet another day where the markets take a 4% loss overall. Gonna be nasty!

Unfortunately, I have BAC and I think it's gonna take an absolute shit kicking tomorrow. My plan was long term for that one though, so I guess I shouldn't worry too much.

I wonder what C is going to do...did anyone buy it the other day? It could fall in to pennies. Will be interesting...

Oil was down quite a bit too when I checked a few hours ago. HOD should open considerably higher. :dunno:

Well, I will buy something ... and attempt to flip it in as little time as possible. Hahaha. :devil:

If anything, trade BAC and C short term. Long term the common shares of those stocks are going to zero as the companies are insolvent and the government conversion of preferred shares will wipe out the common. They won’t be bankrupt, but they will be effectively and indirectly nationalized.

[Z_Fan]

I don't think so with BAC. With C, yeah, ok it's going that way. In any case, we'll see what happens. I don't have many shares that I am planning to hold on to. And I try to flip other positions daily.

[civic_rida]

BAC gets an A in stress test

http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-fails-stress-test-bac-and-jpm-get-as-2009-3

[civic_rida]

Citi, he said, has been urging preferred shareholders and convertible bond holders to convert to common stock to help avoid nationalisation by the U.S. government.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Im hoping bac goes up lol.

Not going to happen.


Originally posted by Canmorite
Dow futures broke through 7000. Wow.

We called it.


Originally posted by Z_Fan
Tomorrow could be yet another day where the markets take a 4% loss overall. Gonna be nasty!

Unfortunately, I have BAC and I think it's gonna take an absolute shit kicking tomorrow. My plan was long term for that one though, so I guess I shouldn't worry too much.

I wonder what C is going to do...did anyone buy it the other day? It could fall in to pennies. Will be interesting...

Oil was down quite a bit too when I checked a few hours ago. HOD should open considerably higher. :dunno:

Well, I will buy something ... and attempt to flip it in as little time as possible. Hahaha. :devil:

I'll be buying more HOD tomorrow and you should too!

You guys know my position on the US banks, they are going to be the driving force killing the markets, the economy and oil.

There is no imminent recovery.

Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day.

Good luck trading everyone. I'll be up early.

[civic_rida]

Bank of america going under how bad is that going to look.

[4DoorGTZ]

Finally looking decent for me on at least one trade... Bought HOD last week for $30.50, too bad my damn tfsa could only afford 100 shares.

DOWN oil DOWN, but not OIL.TO, I wish that would get sold for <$5/share (ha) yeah right.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Rat Fink]

.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


I have a funny picture of me humping the penguin in front of the bank of america in Tulsa oklahoma with my pants down during daylight business hours. I hope I didn't give them bad publicity. LOL

The penguin was painted with stars and stripes so the act had some symbology behind it.

lol you gotta pm me that!

[Rat Fink]

.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h245/polypolara/Bank.jpg


And here's a pic found on the net to prove the location since I unfortunately didn't get the banks sign in the pic

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/41/117119713_72834200eb.jpg?v=0

rofl, good job :thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Bank of america going under how bad is that going to look.

Nationalization of banks in one form or another is inevitable. The government let Lehman Brothers fail. Bear Stearns got bought out at $2. AIG is on the verge but they are deemed 'too big'. It's so much easier to just wipe out the shareholders and start over. Start fresh. lol


Originally posted by e36bmw///
damn, im hoping for $50 oil like MB said so we can get $24 HOD

then im loading up!

Just because oil is 43.65 right now, doesnt mean it will be that in the morning our time

Something important that I must mention, you can never pick the top or the bottom, money is made somewhere in between. With that said, 50% retracement is a very safe spot to enter $33-$35 for HOD. I'm very comfortable buying at these levels and I know I can ride it out. I have also positioned myself to buy even more HOD should it dip into the $25-$30 range.

I initially though Oil had enough momentum to challenge $50 but I'm not so sure anymore. It's encountered a lot of resistance at the $45 level. I mean it's already had a really nice run up in the past week from $35 to $45. Perhaps this is as far as the bulls can take it this time around. We'll find out soon enough.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h245/polypolara/Bank.jpg


And here's a pic found on the net to prove the location since I unfortunately didn't get the banks sign in the pic

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/41/117119713_72834200eb.jpg?v=0

lmao

Awesome.

[SilverRex]

Monday,

I only have 5 mins to write this and will be gone for a few hours this morning (dental appointment) hate going there, :banghead:

anyways im glad oil is coming down as it is suppose to around the 45 area,

all I have to say is for those that are in the green with HOD, be sure to set your stop to zero or if oil reaches above 45 again, because from a technical stand point, if it ever gets back above 45, it would technically trigger alot of buying onto 50 to most investor its a confirmation that oil is about to breakout, so 45 is like the last stand for oil to dip lower.

as for gold, while 930 is a pretty big support short term, the most I think we may see is it to head back to is probablly around the 960-970 area before resuming its down trend. it may struggle in this range until it finds a way lower to 890-900 unless of course if the dow decides to shoot way lower below 6883 then thats another story.

speaking of DOW that means watch out if dow is around the 6883 area, this could be a short term bounce there.

[Z_Fan]

Fuck, HOD is going to have a huge GAP up on open. Nice for those holding it already...bad for those who want in today.

[e36bmw///]

nm