Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
SR, a big reaction as in gold will bounce back or continue to fall?

trading at $906 right now

bounce off 901

right now gold seems to be gaining some strength at 905, sure 901 would have been a good place to jump in, then again it 905 is so close, if thre is one lesson I learn from trading, it is, not every movement moves exactly to the place you want it to be.

for example I saw first rejection on oil to be at 41.60s because there is heavy moving averages and trendline right there, oil indeed got pass that to 42 before finally falling.

I too waited for silver when it first broke out of 12 a few weeks back and had an order at 11.50 because that is a support level, only to see it got as low as 11.64 then it took off to 14.60

so dont be surprise if dont see 901 to the dollar, we are basically close to a short term reversal

[997TT]

Thanks SR.
I'm in for 1500 shares of HGU at $10.92. Rather than taking 1 position I have cash to average down if need be.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
crashing hard!



Originally posted by Proyecto2000
aww man, i was ready to dump HOD as soon as market opened and buy CNRL and now I cant, all of yesterdays profits are gone and CNRL is up $1 :rofl:

Hang in there boys. Oil isn't going to sustain its rally. Things might move sideways for a bit but it'll drop off before you know it.

I held HOD at $22 and sold off at $27. Bought again at $32 and sold at $35. Bought again at $38 and $40 and sold at $43. It also peaked at $47. This was before I mapped out its price history and trend.

Can you imagine if I just held it straight from $22 to $47 and didn't buy/sell in between?

HOD will at the very least re-test $47 which is $35 oil.

Patience. ;)

[max_boost]

Damn, HOD was under $35 today! Let me guess, no one bought any?:poosie:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Damn, HOD was under $35 today! Let me guess, no one bought any?:poosie:

i would, but im holding HSE, i'm down $2+ on 2k shares on it,,, damn, WTF happend with HSE....:banghead: :thumbsdow


anyone know whats the deal with HSE ???? :banghead:

[DJ_NAV]

alright! HOD goin up!

[4DoorGTZ]

Originally posted by max_boost
Damn, HOD was under $35 today! Let me guess, no one bought any?:poosie:

I just held from yesterday, inventory this week, rollover next week :)

[DJ_NAV]

^last two inventory reports have been favourable for oil price to go up.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
^last two inventory reports have been favourable for oil price to go up.

That is exactly the reason why I couldn't jump into HOD.

If you consider that the last two inventory reports were somewhat positive, and that Oil is actually trending up setting higher lows recently, you could view $45 to $40 as the obvious retraction before it breaks $45 and heads to $50. If that is the case then it should make an obvious retraction to $45 before heading higher.

Not saying it will, but banking on $30 oil is just as dangerous as banking on $50 oil. It will all be based on one report tomorrow and I don't like "betting."

I should add that my hunch is we are heading down.

[max_boost]

Agree to disagree.

Last two reports were with refineries closed for maintenance. Imports have increased this month so we should see a nice surplus.

BTW, inventory reports aren't the only thing that moves the oil price, everything else from GDP numbers, consumer confidence, consumer spending, unemployment numbers to equity markets play a huge part as well.

As for oil going up? No can do. The new trading range will soon be $30 to $45, down from the $35 to $50.

I'll continue to buy HOD on huge dips and ride it out as long as the American economy continues to suck.

Say oil is going to go up is making a case for HOU. HOU is the ultimate death trap :rofl:

[bigbadboss101]

Oil price just jumped in the last 10 min. What's the deal?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[997TT]

HGU $11.65 ... many thanks SR.

I suck at stocks (obviously make my money outside of investments).

Slowly but surely i hope to recoup losses on HOU.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Oil price just jumped in the last 10 min. What's the deal?

Dow is in positive territory? I don't know what it is but these fluctuations are just part of the game. That's why I'm just ignoring things and letting it play itself out. I've seen this before. HOD might even move sideways for 1-2 weeks and then pop 60% over 4 days which is what happened last month. If you want to gamble, get in there and day trade it.


Originally posted by e36bmw///
did we have $35 oil this year yet?
or lower?

Yep. 3X but we couldn't trade on it because the rollover took effect already. Same thing every time. $35 oil, rollover, small rally, then tank job to $35 again. This month we've had the rollover, the small rally, now waiting for the tank job haha


Originally posted by 997TT
HGU $11.65 ... many thanks SR.

I suck at stocks (obviously make my money outside of investments).

Slowly but surely i hope to recoup losses on HOU.

Damn it. I was hoping to pick up that 997 from you for cheap! jk!

Gold down but gold stocks up. :confused:
Consider holding some gold for the long run. HBU and HGU. If gold explodes, you'll see crazy gains!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost






Gold down but gold stocks up. :confused:


gold and gold share will only move opposite direction when the trend changes meaning before gold prices falls, gold share falls first, and before gold price rises, gold share rises first.

while everyone is waiting for 875 gold, dont underestimate the buying in the 900-925 area.

HUI bounced off 260 to the dot (38% retracement) it would be nice to see 240, but you just can never be exact as to when gold share will turn around, but at least it has fulfilled its min requirement by hitting the 1st retracement support. meaning, it CAN move up from here, the next time it cracks the high of 327, it will shoot to 400 quickly.

im still crossing my fingers for at least one more wave lower for gold.

[997TT]

Originally posted by max_boost


Damn it. I was hoping to pick up that 997 from you for cheap! jk!

Gold down but gold stocks up. :confused:
Consider holding some gold for the long run. HBU and HGU. If gold explodes, you'll see crazy gains!

haha ... i know so many ppl who are just waiting to pick up my car off me. Other consultant buddies of mine were thinking i'd have to unload it after we had our first child, my broker wants it in a few years, sometimes when i joke about how much money i've lost in the market friends will enquire about the turbo's availability...lol

Kulu has one right now (similar specs to mine but Silver) for $120K.

[997TT]

HOD back below $35 ($34.75) ... whose buying beside Max?

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by 997TT
HOD back below $35 ($34.75) ... whose buying beside Max?

$34.50, would have been nice if I sold 1hr ago and then bought back in. O well this is a fun experiance, watching your money go in the red and then in the green :poosie:

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by 997TT
HOD back below $35 ($34.75) ... whose buying beside Max?

i still have a small position, but i think i might wait until tommorrow to buy more. im thinking if the inventory report comes out with a decline in reserves again, people will jump into oil.

[bigbadboss101]

One could have flipped HOD a couple times today, as would many other days if sitting by the computer.

[4DoorGTZ]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
One could have flipped HOD a couple times today, as would many other days if sitting by the computer.

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 4DoorGTZ


Can I borrow your crystal ball?

lol, its easy to say after the fact..... damn HSE:facepalm:

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by 4DoorGTZ


Can I borrow your crystal ball?

What I meant was price of oil jump up and down between positive and negative from the previous close so you can ride the wave. EG. oil was up at open, then went slightly in the negatives, and now it's up again. I got some this morning and have been in the +$1000 point, and -$900 point today.

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold3.jpg

you can clearly see the long term trend is still very much bullish. when gold first broke out of 930 a few weeks ago, it broke out of a bullish downward megaphone pattern, and so far gold got rejected right at the upper trendline 1006.

and now that price is putting a healthy pull back to the breakout, short term the 900-925 area will be strong and looking at the bottom the stochastic looks way overbought and needs to come down, but short term gold is oversold,

there fore short term I see gold may find its way back to the 950-960 area, but medium term it will need to stretch out and reset most indicator before taking off again. I'm sure gold will most likely form some sort of side ways or flag pattern follow by a breakout to the upside, then off we go.

yes pending how it plays out, sometimes you can get some strange moves and I dont completely rule out gold in a worse case scenario that may touch 800.

In summary, look for gold to consolidate between 875-960 for a while before taking off again.

[dj_honda]

Traders awaited Wednesday’s release of crude inventory data by the Energy Information Administration.

Analysts are looking for oil stocks to rise by 2.2 million barrels, and gasoline stocks to fall by 600,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Oil prices have fallen below $33 twice in the past three months as oil inventories near record levels.

Markets watch inventory levels closely for signs of rising or falling demand. Oil prices rose for two consecutive days last week when the build up in crude inventories was less than expected.

But prices began to fall on Friday and then plunged Monday. Crude is still trading about $4 below Monday’s open.

Traders are also awaiting government reports later this week on employment levels, which have in recent months sent oil prices plunging further.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12400801/

So thats what's expected....if thats the case or greater than 2.2million, oil should fall, who knows for how long though.

edit: i mean fall lol

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 997TT
HOD back below $35 ($34.75) ... whose buying beside Max?

Love your car but looks like there will be no big ticket purchases from me until this recession is over or HOD reaches $100 haha jk

My average cost on HOD is at $34 right now. Won't be buying anymore until it drops to $26, if oil can hit $50 but I don't see that happening anyway. I'm tempted to just push all in but nah, always have to leave yourself options! haha


Originally posted by Proyecto2000


$34.50, would have been nice if I sold 1hr ago and then bought back in. O well this is a fun experiance, watching your money go in the red and then in the green :poosie:

Yeah, I've said it, the fluctuations are crazy, +/- 10%. I've been watching it for the past 3 months everyday and it'll still rattle me at times. Hang in there man. When in doubt, look at my HOD chart. HOD will at least get to $47 very soon :D


Originally posted by bigbadboss101


What I meant was price of oil jump up and down between positive and negative from the previous close so you can ride the wave. EG. oil was up at open, then went slightly in the negatives, and now it's up again. I got some this morning and have been in the +$1000 point, and -$900 point today.

I know what you mean man but that's pure speculation on how it'll move. Some people think I gamble hard, I don't have what it takes to day trade. After banking on it to go up, you have to sell and hope it'll go back down. Wayyyy too much for me to handle. :nut:

I do agree that the swings are a day traders dream.

[ckangarloo]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
One could have flipped HOD a couple times today, as would many other days if sitting by the computer.

Haha, not the best option with HOD. Sure I had some brilliant trades using the in and out strategy then two weeks ago I got cocky and bought at 45 thinking I'd caught a slight downturn from 47. No stops so its my own fault. Well, look where we are at now. Averaging down that far has not been fun.
If I had just held onto HOD when it was $19 instead of quick flips... In the end, it has just made Questrade a lot of money in commission.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by dj_honda


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12400801/

So thats what's expected....if thats the case or greater than 2.2million, oil should fall, who knows for how long though.

edit: i mean fall lol

Yeah but the backup plan is the unemployment report. You know unemployment is going to be very close to 8%. The numbers being thrown around are another 600K lost jobs.

Until they find a solution for their banks, which they can't, fix the housing sector, which they can't, stem the decline of unemployment, which they can't, in addition to the numerous manufacturing indexes, GDP numbers etc. There's no fear when it comes to HOD man. Look at all the data that will come out and help us haha

As for HOU? What does HOU have on its side? OPEC? Not even complying 100%. Inventory numbers? It's only helped it 3 out of the past 23 weeks! Middle East war? That was just an excuse. HOU will get slapped silly once again. I would only be scared if I'm holding HOU. HOD is KING.

No fear my fellow HOD holders. :thumbsup:

[slick2404]

mmmmmm 34.95 HOD

[max_boost]

^

Consider it an opportunity for you guys to get in before it takes off. :poosie:

[dj_honda]

other one i found, different number same story:


* Crude oil supplies were forecast to have risen 1.2
million barrels, with products supplies lower last week, ahead
of industry and government inventory data. [EIA/S]

http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSN0349664320090303

[max_boost]

Originally posted by ckangarloo


Haha, not the best option with HOD. Sure I had some brilliant trades using the in and out strategy then two weeks ago I got cocky and bought at 45 thinking I'd caught a slight downturn from 47. No stops so its my own fault. Well, look where we are at now. Averaging down that far has not been fun.
If I had just held onto HOD when it was $19 instead of quick flips... In the end, it has just made Questrade a lot of money in commission.

Yeah. Oh well. Can't dwell on that. I had 3000 shares of HOD at $22. But at the time, I didn't even know how the damn thing worked. Had I noticed the price/chart history sooner, I would have held on to it and never sold lol

It's also easy to say I should have sold my HOD at $38 and buy back in at $35. Right....my crystal ball is broken.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by dj_honda
other one i found, different number same story:



http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSN0349664320090303

They probably just pull those numbers out of a hat. It's usually nowhere near the actual numbers. Even the numbers API releases are way off.

We'll find out tomorrow.

If inventory numbers favor HOU, then oil will probably get back to $45 before falling back to $40 at weeks end. Just how it is. Should it get to $50, that will send HOD to $20-$22 range lol Better get ready to buy again. :rofl:

[Canmorite]

Sam is now the number 1 poster in this thread :rofl: :thumbsup:

Good to see it alive and kicking, lots of updates!

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold3.jpg


Good analysis SR. Do you mind if I ask what charting program that is?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so im buying hgu on the 7th lol




just wondering, if oil does go to say $45 tomorrow

May contract would be around 47 or higher
When rollover happens, thats very good for hod right? since oil has to stay above $47 for HOU to make money...

Yeah, that's why HOU can't win in the long run. It'll lose because oil has a ceiling and contango. Why do you think so many of us have been scarred from HOU?

Example. In January, Oil was at $45 and HOU was at $14, how come right now when oil was just at $45, HOU was at $6? haha :rofl: Doh! :(

Rollover is next Friday. When next Friday comes around, April is going to be in the $30-$35 range and May will be around $38-41, that's my guess. After the rollover, oil will spike once to $45-$50 before falling back down to $30-$35 oil again. That's how it's been for the past 3 months and I have no reason to believe that won't play out exactly the same way again.

Why do you think I am so confident with HOD? Because the exact same thing has played out already, rollover, start at $41, rally to $45, dropped to $40, now going sideways, just waiting for it to tank now. It could be tomorrow with the inventory count.

There's no way for oil to rally and put the futures contracts into backwardation. F my life if that happens.

[slick2404]

Originally posted by max_boost

....There's no way for oil to rally and put the futures contracts into backwardation. F my life if that happens.

:rofl: Found that pretty funny, but wish it upon no one. GO HOD GO!

[rs.froze]

Unfortunately for both groups, however, houses are not very good investments. For the grasshoppers, there's nothing quite as stupid as paying off your 2002, or maybe get search into some site that are related in your problem...




__________________
IRS Problems (http://www.taxmatterssolutions.com/)

[djayz]

Originally posted by rs.froze
Unfortunately for both groups, however, houses are not very good investments. For the grasshoppers, there's nothing quite as stupid as paying off your 2002, or maybe get search into some site that are related in your problem...



:english:

[4DoorGTZ]

^ Sounds like that belonged in one of those buying vs renting discussions, I think there's one currently ongoing in this section.

[civic_rida]

Hope you all sold hod. Markets are going to rally.
Oil is around $44

[civic_rida]

Now its over $44

[997TT]

Yahoo finance showing HOD at $31.50 pre market open

[civic_rida]

If inventory reports come out favoring oil we wil see under 30 dollar hod for sure.

[SilverRex]

gold is panning out the way it should be while it hasnt moved much in the last few hours, silver has already broke out of its channel. Cant rule out gold may still want to touch 901 but short term a rally is in the works and gold should be able to hit 930 follow by 940.

for oil, the 200 day continues to support oil prices in the last few weeks.right now it is in a critical area (sort of the last trendline keeping the lid down at around 44-44.50, you can rest assure the whole world has a buy order above 45.30 which could be massive forcing oil to hit 50 in the short term if that level is hit.

if you look at the last few peaks 50.8, 48.50, when it began to drop, it was sharp and fast, but this time clearly, oil is trying to rally. While the economy isnt any better, that is not to say oil wont trade between 50-55, because we already have 2 weeks of continue decline in inventory, the OPEC cuts are starting to impact prices, for all we know we could have saw the bottom at 33, if anything to see lower oil prices, you need much higher US dollar, and the US dollar could any moment began a sharp decline and that only bodes well for oil.

the 45 area is big because looking at the daily chart you can see a break above it would mean the channel that oil was in and put in a partial decline follow by a breakout, and this will be the signal the bulls will be looking for turning the sell on rallies oil for the pass 6 months into buy on dips so watchout.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil4.jpg

[bigbadboss101]

What is hod at? I am on the bus

[sputnik]

Originally posted by SilverRex
bolds well for oil.

BODES well for oil.

[997TT]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
What is hod at? I am on the bus

$30.50

[997TT]

Originally posted by 997TT


$30.50

$29.55 now

[max_boost]

WTF! I so did not see this oil rally coming. I just woke up lol

Time for plan B, average down. Let's see what the inventory reports say first lol

[sputnik]

Flip a coin!

BACK TO THE HOU BANDWAGON!

[Z_Fan]

lol

[SilverRex]

the way to do it would be if you bought HOU in the 40s, get out now and wait for oil to break above 45, wait for a retest of 45 before jumping back in.

and for those who short it at 45, should have got out at 40, wait for a break below 39.50 (yes there was a trendline support it) then short again when oil retest the breakout back at 39.50

but if oil is not ready to breakout either way then it will continue to move side ways until a break out

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil5.jpg

[sputnik]

Originally posted by SilverRex
the way to do it would be if you bought HOU in the 40s, get out now and wait for oil to break above 45, wait for a retest of 45 before jumping back in.

Agreed.

Lots of stock "chasers" in this thread.

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by sputnik


Agreed.

Lots of stock "chasers" in this thread.

But only one troll.

[eljefe]

I'll be damned crude inventories drop again

[sputnik]

Originally posted by dj_honda
But only one troll.

Hate me for having different buying practices.

I hold positions for longer than a few hours or days for that matter.

Wrestling in the HOD/HOU world is really no different than getting into leveraged FOREX trading. It is all terribly speculative and the greedy (those looking to wait out another percentage or two) will be eaten alive regardless of how good they think there analysis is, or what they believe the weekly inventory report will say.

[Proyecto2000]

im on HOD, deep in the red now :cry:.

[The_Rural_Juror]

Originally posted by sputnik
Flip a coin!

BACK TO THE HOU BANDWAGON!

No wai...just do whatever Max Boost doesn't do. :rofl:

(just kidding Max!)

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by sputnik


Hate me for having different buying practices.

I hold positions for longer than a few hours or days for that matter.

Wrestling in the HOD/HOU world is really no different than getting into leveraged FOREX trading. It is all terribly speculative and the greedy (those looking to wait out another percentage or two) will be eaten alive regardless of how good they think there analysis is, or what they believe the weekly inventory report will say.

That's really great. Good for you.

If you remember right, I am not the one that posts every couple of days hating on everyone for trading the way they do and not the same way you do, and overall adding no value whatsoever to the thread.

[sputnik]

I am pretty sure many here are hating the way they have been trading too.

There is WAY too much over confidence here and it is showing its returns in the loss of thousands of dollars at a time.

If I can save one lemming from an over confident analysis or "gut feeling" I will have done my job.

Some of you need to be a little more critical of where you get your investing advice from.

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex


you can rest assure the whole world has a buy order above 45.30 which could be massive forcing oil to hit 50 in the short term if that level is hit.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil4.jpg

OIL at $45.20 now ....

[sputnik]

Oil inventories DECLINE 700,000 barrels.


3/4/2009 11:07 AM ET

(RTTNews) - Crude oil inventories declined for just the fourth time in 23 weeks last week, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Oil prices moved touched $45 a barrel following the report.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased 700,000 barrels in the week ended Feb. 27. Economists were looking for a build of about a million barrels. At 350.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 200,000 barrels last week, and are in the lower half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels, and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased last week by 1.1 million barrels.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by sputnik
I am pretty sure many here are hating the way they have been trading too.

There is WAY too much over confidence here and it is showing its returns in the loss of thousands of dollars at a time.

If I can save one lemming from an over confident analysis or "gut feeling" I will have done my job.

Some of you need to be a little more critical of where you get your investing advice from.

I think you would be happier perhaps if this was renamed the Beyond gambling thread?

[DJ_NAV]

so when is the inventory report coming out? 9:30 mst?

[Z_Fan]

Say what you want, but Sputnik is absolutely correct.

And yeah, we should rename this the beyond gambling thread. That is exactly what it is...

[davidI]

Originally posted by davidI


I like CNQ at $36, TLM at $10, IMO at $30. Those are my entry points - I looking to exit at ~ $43, $12 & $38 respectively.

Have done this for a few months and made decent returns. 17% in 3 days on TLM last week (entered at $10.19, exited at $11.96).

Picked up CNQ at $36.32 on Monday and exited today at $38.95. 7% isn't bad for 2 days.

Decided to gamble and entered HOD at <$30. We'll see what happens. Inventories are still above average so despite the good news today the first news of OPEC members not cutting as much production as hoped should push oil down again. I'll likely sell HOD at $35. Rather take small returns than be greedy these days. Then again, I wouldn't call 16% small...

[sputnik]

Originally posted by eljefe
I think you would be happier perhaps if this was renamed the Beyond gambling thread?

That's a pretty accurate description in some cases.

There are some very sincere analysis being done here, however there a some people who seem to hit a couple big trades and then are artificially elevated to "investor god" status.

Anyone here long enough to remember when 89coupe was considered to be the king of stock tips on Beyond?

[max_boost]

:drama: unfolding.

I'm still holding my HOD.

Good luck trading everyone!

[slick2404]

well at least the flames got leopold:goflames:

[ckangarloo]

OK, enough oil trading talk for a bit.
Question: does it make sense to hold dividend paying securities in my self directed RRSP or would they be more advantageous in my regular investment account?

Thinking ENB is not looking too shaby at the moment (as well as most transmission companies) for that matter.

[civic_rida]

Average down Sam

[sputnik]

Originally posted by ckangarloo
Question: does it make sense to hold dividend paying securities in my self directed RRSP or would they be more advantageous in my regular investment account

That depends if you are looking for the dividends to provide cash flow or not.

Obviously if you are looking for liquid cash then leave them unregistered. If you are just going to reinvest the dividend as a part of a long term portfolio you might as well move them into an RSP.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Average down Sam

I will but I'll see how it plays out first. I did set aside a couple positions for this scenario.

[ExtraSlow]

And it depends on what other types of investments you have. Dividends are taxed at a lower rate than interest, so if you have a bunch of bonds and dividend paying securities, then you could hold your bonds in the Registered account (or TFSA) and the dividends in your taxavble account.

That being said, all investment incurr less tax in a registered (or Tax-free) account, so you should hold as much in those as possible.

[RX_EVOLV]

imo not too surprising oil rallied, didnt expect it to hit $45 so fast though, i thought it would hit~ $43 first today then 45 tmr.

imo I dont think oil can get pass $45 this time, but it will get a little further this time last last time before it come crashing down to ~ $40 again. if HOD gets below $30 tmr it might not be a bad buy~ (FYI dont own any HOU. unfortunately...or HOD. fortunately)

[Unikkatil]

Are any of you buying HOD with the idea of averaging down?

[Z_Fan]

I put in a buy on HOD for $28.25 but it never got there.

Not holding any, but thought $28 HOD was a good entry point.

It's (oil) going to tumble down to the $39 range again IMO. Just a few days...as usual...

[Unikkatil]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I put in a buy on HOD for $28.25 but it never got there.

Not holding any, but thought $28 HOD was a good entry point.

It's (oil) going to tumble down to the $39 range again IMO. Just a few days...as usual...

If you know that its gonna bounce, then why dont you buy HOD at 30?

[civic_rida]

So what was the story with oil inventory's?
28 dollar is a safer entry point:D

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold4.jpg

gold should be ready to rebound while there is also a down side risk to 875 and 825. but the 901 area will be a good place to enter for the short term

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I put in a buy on HOD for $28.25 but it never got there.

Not holding any, but thought $28 HOD was a good entry point.

It's (oil) going to tumble down to the $39 range again IMO. Just a few days...as usual...

If you still have that order you're close to getting filled

[SilverRex]

I wont buy at 28.50 because oil broke above 45.30 which is now bullish

it may move to 46-47, if anything I may want to buy back when oil dips back to 45 as a retest to shoot for 50

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil6.jpg

oil already broke out of a trendline this morning at 43.70 and look how it came back to retest the breakout, now that price is above 45.30 its just another confirmation that short term it looks like oil is on the verge of a huge trend reversal

[sheena]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I wont buy at 28.50 because oil broke above 45.30 which is now bullish

it may move to 46-47, if anything I may want to buy back when oil dips back to 45 as a retest to shoot for 50

So at what price would you say its good entry for HOD.

[SilverRex]

based on price projection, if this breakout is legit and follows thru text book wise, we are looking oil to hit at least onto 52-53 dollars, that means HOD will be back to 19-20 dollars and HOU at 7.50 assuming excluding roll overs. next sell off could be at 50 and 53

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil7.jpg

[yoda124]

dryships.Big gap up off 52 week low today.Should be good for a few more days runup.In at 3.65

[Proyecto2000]

im down 20% on HOD today, what are you HOD holders doing? ride it out and hope for a recovery or are you getting out now and taking the losses?

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
im down 20% on HOD today, would you guys ride it out and hope for a recovery or would you gtfo now and take the losses?

What are you doing Max?

I am not sure what your experience is and where your risk tolerance is but you need to understand when playing with double leveraged ETFs you are in essence gambling.

Buying up quality companies based on due diligence and valuations can rarely go wrong in the long run. In the short run anything is possible.

But be aware that 2x ETFs are dangerous because there is no long term prospects.

That said Oil is in no man's land. If you really want to play the ETFs get into them when oil is at extremes. Not hovering around $40. The key is if oil breaks $45 we can have a big run up to $50. However, if oil stays at $49.50 or there abouts it is likely to decline to $40 then up to $42 then break past $40 and into the $38 mark.

Oil is likely to go up more than down at this point. It just needs a slight push to $46 and if the market rallies it will easily move to $50.

Unless you are confident in this stuff stick to learning stocks.

Just my $.02, take it for what it is worth.

[bigbadboss101]

I am riding it out.

[DJ_NAV]

me too...

[The_Rural_Juror]

Stopped out. Repurchased lower.

[broken_legs]

Hmmmmmmm


Interesting that you guys would choose to ride it out.

I think oil will go higher and heres why:

1.)Obama Releases the housing plan today. This is what the market has been waiting for and why its rallying. Were at historic lows. Do you really think its going to lower before higher? (also because china released a new stimulous plan last night and China is going to save the day and bring back demand for all commodities ((dont you know!)))


2.) Look at the dow and S&P. Both up huge today... But it wasnt the financials that rallied like usual. Financials are pretty much flat for the day. This is a broad based rally and will take energy with it.

3.) Oil inventories are down for the second week in a row.

4.) Opec cuts again this month.


I think you'd be best buying HOD again when oils at 55


I'm not trading right now just watching. Shitty internet connection in Hungary. If i had some bucks i'd be into HOU for a ride up to 6-7 dollars.

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
me too...

i have some too still. i was considering more but was unsure seeing as how it dropped so fast, so i figure i will wait until tommorrow and try to get some around 25 if it gets that low.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
based on price projection, if this breakout is legit and follows thru text book wise, we are looking oil to hit at least onto 52-53 dollars, that means HOD will be back to 19-20 dollars and HOU at 7.50 assuming excluding roll overs. next sell off could be at 50 and 53

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil7.jpg

Dec 15, oil peaked at $50.05 and fell to $35
Jan 6, oil peaked at $50.47 and fell to $35
Jan 6, oil peaked at $48.59 and fell to $35

I'm sure you had the same bullish analysis at that time too, now what's so different this time that makes you believe that it can break $50 and on to $52-$53 oil?

I'm holding my short positions. I bought at $42 and will buy again between $46-$47 and $50 if necessary. I said that from the get go and I'm going to stick to the plan. If it does break the trend and move onwards to $50-$55 and holds there, then clearly I lose and will re-evaluate at that point. It will most likely mark the end of my HOU/HOD run. I'll go out getting shafted hard by both and go back to trading the large caps. We'll find out soon enough.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by max_boost


Dec 15, oil peaked at $50.05 and fell to $35
Jan 6, oil peaked at $50.47 and fell to $35
Jan 6, oil peaked at $48.59 and fell to $35

I'm sure you had the same bullish analysis at that time too, now what's so different this time that makes you believe that it can break $50 and on to $52-$53 oil?

I'm holding my short positions. I bought at $42 and will buy again between $46-$47 and $50 if necessary. I said that from the get go and I'm going to stick to the plan. If it does break the trend and move onwards to $50-$55 and holds there, then clearly I lose and will re-evaluate at that point. It will most likely mark the end of my HOU/HOD run. I'll go out getting shafted hard by both and go back to trading the large caps. We'll find out soon enough.

Well not exactly.

There were bull cases (that are still valid) but oil inventories were building. Simple supply and demand was the story. For whatever reason inventories have declined 2 times in a row.. That is significant. Perhaps a change in the trend.

I have no doubt that oil will come back down again, i just think that obvious trade is over for now. This time i think oil might top 50 bucks. It didnt sell off as the markets were hitting new lows, and now the markets have only one place to go and its not being driven by financials this time in a false rally as it was in the other times.

[sputnik]

Heading towards December 15th SilverRex was fairly bearish.

Dec 8th

with the market rallying, im not so suprise to see oil bouncing back higher, but I think in due time oil will tread lower when this rally is done. We may have seen the near term bottom for oil just as the DOw had put in a huge support around 8200.

as far as the fake rally is concern, I'm just making sure I have cash aside to buy the dips (for gold that is). I will focus on oil when the right time comes. !!! trade at your own risk, but if I was to buy oil now, I would as I see a very strong break towards its 50MA which is around 65 dollars (lower if it takes longer to get there), then the real sell off will begin that will work its way towards 30 bucks.

Dec 15th

and as far as oil, sure I missed the 40.50 bottom for oil. then again I knew a rally was in the works when I said last week the temporary bottom is in when it was around 43, how far this rally will go is anyone's guess chart wise, it sure looks like it is holding well and ready to take re-entry to 50's atmosphere. Could this be a buy on rumor (OPEC cut) and sell on news? we'll see, surely with such huge drop in demand and oil price this past few months, oil price will find plenty of time to form a solid bottom and support. So for those waiting on the sidelines, just be patient, just be ready when oil price does come around into the low 40s if not in the 30s. If anything 3 times make the charm, that would make my day.

[DJ_NAV]

key is to lower your average... just need 2 days in a row like monday.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Hmmmmmmm


Interesting that you guys would choose to ride it out.

I think oil will go higher and heres why:

1.)Obama Releases the housing plan today. This is what the market has been waiting for and why its rallying. Were at historic lows. Do you really think its going to lower before higher? (also because china released a new stimulous plan last night and China is going to save the day and bring back demand for all commodities ((dont you know!)))


2.) Look at the dow and S&amp;P. Both up huge today... But it wasnt the financials that rallied like usual. Financials are pretty much flat for the day. This is a broad based rally and will take energy with it.

3.) Oil inventories are down for the second week in a row.

4.) Opec cuts again this month.


I think you'd be best buying HOD again when oils at 55


I'm not trading right now just watching. Shitty internet connection in Hungary. If i had some bucks i'd be into HOU for a ride up to 6-7 dollars.

lol

Agree to disagree.

I pretty much disagree with everything you said.

1. Every time Obama comes out and says something, the DJIA & S&P500 shaves off a good 3-4%.

China is not saving the day until America gets their shit together. I have no idea why everyone is so optimistic about China.

2. The financial sector will continue to kill the Dow. There are no solutions to the mess.

3. Can't argue there, inventories are down.

4. OPEC only had 80% compliance. I don't see another cut coming. IMO

Oil will hit $35 before it hits $55 but I'll eat my words otherwise.

How is Hungary and the Eastern bloc right now? Not hearing/reading too many good things about their financial crisis.