Official Short-term Investments Thread

[liquid1010]

Interesting activity in GLD:

-----------------------This blog post was written by Chris McKhann.

As gold pulls back roughly 10 percent from its highs of two weeks ago, options trading is pointing to further downside.

Gold futures crossed the $1,000 mark briefly on Feb. 20 but have dropped every day since then and now sit at $912. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) [GLD 89.13 -0.91 (-1.01%) ] exchange traded fund has retraced from $99 to its current level around $89, mirroring the price decline of the precious metal itself.

Gold, Platinum, Silver Prices Now
As least one options trader is looking for more downside, at least on a limited basis. This player bought 4,500 of the April 85 puts for $2.45 and traded a similar number of April 80 puts, according to OptionMonster's tracking systems. The trade appears to be a bear put spread, using the sale of the April 80 puts to offset some of the cost of the April 85 contracts.
--------------------------------------------------------

I've flipped some ABX calls this morning - making about 22%..... but am still holding a few contracts for $32.50...

[sputnik]

SilverRex on January 6th. Bearish as well.


so 50 dollar oil target was hit easily, now can it hit 55?, the moment it does I will unwind all my position simply there is a case that 55 has a few supportive factors such is that it was a previous peak back in late november, as well as the 50day moving average although it has since moved to 53. I do believe sell off would be right around the corner.

obviously the long term target is 80 which is the fib retracement. Everyone loves the retracement factor. But before we go any higher, I would bet on prices to go low first again. The only thing would be is 35 the bottom? or can it dip to 25 or even 10 like the previous crash in the last decade.

[SilverRex]

anyways it appears the majority here still holds HOD, for the sake of you guys, I wish the market would suddenly turn around and so we could see low 30 oil again.

it is so difficult to play oil when your chasing the market, going from HOU to HOD after realizing the trend favors shorting oil, but just when every one is convinced this pattern should continue, thats when the market may decide to turn it around.

I mean if it were that easy to play the market, we all would be filthy rich, but the market does have a mind of its own, it always appears the whole world revolves against you and you only.

I can only doing my best with what I know and hope my technical analysis can help this board rather then to mislead. And if I did mislead I apologize.

I hope I Am wrong and oil will dip into the 30s. but if I was a better man I would be buying oil at 45 with a tight stop as it does look ready to push higher.

oil started well when it put in a double top at 45 not a while ago, and it was suppose to head back down to 35, but it suddenly turned around, this is already different than the last 3 fallouts, one is to be careful, because trend do break.

for oil bears, you need to pray for oil to get back down below 43.60 to invalidate this breakout

good luck

[The_Rural_Juror]

I have no problems with SilverRex providing his analysis because is quite nice to see quite a bit of info in a small package. You are an idiot if you take any one person's word as any indication of the markets anyway. Same goes for anyone who relies solely on technical analysis.

I am very short term long on oil, but am using ETFs to hedge against any unexpected crashes if anyone cares.

[sputnik]

Great comment SilverRex! You speak the truth!

Your analysis has always remained unbiased, realistic and balanced (unlike those whose analysis always seems to favour their current holdings) and I appreciate that.

[SilverRex]

^

thanks but I am bias on gold because that is most of my holdings, so I guess im just as evil as everyone lol

for all I know I could be wrong, all the gold bulls could be wrong, but as my brother always says, let the market prove me wrong otherwise, while those who follow the elliot wave is suggesting gold is about to crash, there is just as many other reason why it wont.

so I hope technically it plays out to the upside

for oil, I too jumped the gun alittle early awhile back when oil first goto 40 and I overshot my forecast by 5 dollars. anyhow the overall picture in oil does become more clear because important supports and resistance are well established.

if I had to go by just one theme on oil, it is, anything below 40 oil is good for buying.

that is if you dont fall under the knife of the roll over effect.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
anyways it appears the majority here still holds HOD, for the sake of you guys, I wish the market would suddenly turn around and so we could see low 30 oil again.

it is so difficult to play oil when your chasing the market, going from HOU to HOD after realizing the trend favors shorting oil, but just when every one is convinced this pattern should continue, thats when the market may decide to turn it around.

I mean if it were that easy to play the market, we all would be filthy rich, but the market does have a mind of its own, it always appears the whole world revolves against you and you only.

I can only doing my best with what I know and hope my technical analysis can help this board rather then to mislead. And if I did mislead I apologize.

I hope I Am wrong and oil will dip into the 30s. but if I was a better man I would be buying oil at 45 with a tight stop as it does look ready to push higher.

oil started well when it put in a double top at 45 not a while ago, and it was suppose to head back down to 35, but it suddenly turned around, this is already different than the last 3 fallouts, one is to be careful, because trend do break.

for oil bears, you need to pray for oil to get back down below 43.60 to invalidate this breakout

good luck

Well said. Well said.

Just to clear the air, I just wanted to know what you saw technically on the charts that makes this rally so different than the previous 3. I wasn't calling on your credibility or anything. Sorry if my words mislead.

I have a sneaky feeling us oil bears are going to get killed for another 1-2 days before it rebounds in our favor.

I've said this before and will say it again. Two ways to play the game.

1. Set a stop. Buy back in when the trend/resistance is in your favor. SilverRex uses this method and he never gets killed like the rest of us.

2. No stop but set aside 3 positions so you can average down if things go sour.

I don't think anyone has downplayed the risk level of 2X ETF's. Yeah it's pretty much gambling so if you can't handle it, don't play!

Happy Trading.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^


if I had to go by just one theme on oil, it is, anything below 40 oil is good for buying.

that is if you dont fall under the knife of the roll over effect.

USO is a better play since it doesn't have the leverage aspect.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by max_boost


lol

Agree to disagree.

I pretty much disagree with everything you said.

1. Every time Obama comes out and says something, the DJIA & S&P500 shaves off a good 3-4%.

China is not saving the day until America gets their shit together. I have no idea why everyone is so optimistic about China.

2. The financial sector will continue to kill the Dow. There are no solutions to the mess.

3. Can't argue there, inventories are down.

4. OPEC only had 80% compliance. I don't see another cut coming. IMO

Oil will hit $35 before it hits $55 but I'll eat my words otherwise.

How is Hungary and the Eastern bloc right now? Not hearing/reading too many good things about their financial crisis.

For Thought:
1.) http://www.cnbc.com/id/29369506/

Dennis Kneale wasnt this hard on Obamma before. This is my clear contrarian signal that the markets will react differently tomorrow.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


Well said. Well said.

Just to clear the air, I just wanted to know what you saw technically on the charts that makes this rally so different than the previous 3. I wasn't calling on your credibility or anything. Sorry if my words mislead.

Happy Trading.

no problem here,

at first when oil came down from 45, there wasnt anything wrong with it, in fact it was playing out exactly as it did the previous 3 peaks, however this time there are a few things changed since.

1. oil gave back the 5 dollar loss since putting in a double top at 45 and generally speaking if the trend was down, the down trendline around 43.60 would have rejected price, but instead it broke out of it

2. crossing over 45 is big deal, it is like crossing over 53 and 50 during the last two peak, because that would imply the moving averages isnt holding a bullish move

3. 3 week straight I think we have decline inventories another reflectiong that the cut OPEC made is impacting numbers

4. market rally, yes DOW can dip lower but right now its so oversold and the 6900 area can easily become a short term support

5. US dollar is near a peak technically, its ready to at the least retrace abit. though oil doesnt usually move against it each time but a weaker US dollar helps oil prices if you want to add to the equation.

6. monthly chart shows janurary price formed a spinning bottom which the decline is about to end but follow by feburary it formed a bullish looking hammer, couple that with the spinning bottom, its a very good chance oil is ready to make a run higher.

now I know you will always say, but the economy is bad, how can they sustain +50 oil. you are half right, but oil, gold, even stocks it is all based on speculation. price wil move when people believe its worth the price regardless of market condition. If the world believes DOW at 6000 is too high, then it will drop further. Now are we going to see 70 oil right now, probablly not. Even if oil does finally gets bullish I think we will see a new trading range of between 43-53 for a bit, it will require another breakout to send it to 70.

[Canmorite]

If Oil can break, re-trace and hold that ~45 I think we could see a summer/driving season rally in the forward months...

I'm going to fill up my car :rofl:

[SilverRex]

“Dear CIGAs,

Gold’s job is, and will always attempt to during periods of monetary stress, balance the INTERNATIONAL Balance Sheet of the USA.


Putting the Numbers Into The Equation:


$3,125,000,000,000 / 260,272,000 ounces of gold = $12,006.67 per ounce of gold.

In the early 70s I put an advertisement in Barrons predicting gold would rise to $900. When it got near that level, I left for 21 years.

I reappeared officially when Forbes published an article on my career December 10th of 2001. ?Click here to view the Forbe article... (http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2001/1210/190.html)

The mathematics behind the $900 number came from the following equation plus reasonable trend estimates on the number going into the future.

You will note the number today fits in nicely with Alf’s high levels.

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

I would not have revealed this unless a recognized expert who has a 100% track record such as Alf Fields predicted it first.

I did not wish to yell "fire in the theatre."

It certainly make the Comex manipulators, who could easily be stopped, look long-term silly today.”- Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com



hmm I would be happy if gold hits 2400, but 10,000

[Canmorite]

Oh Jim Sinclair...

Well, I'll watch for a break above $1030 :poosie:

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I am not sure what your experience is and where your risk tolerance is but you need to understand when playing with double leveraged ETFs you are in essence gambling.


I have no clue as to what i'm doing, I just jumped head first into HOD and learning a few things as I go along. Hopefully by the time that I make my 3rd transaction I will have a better graps of things :rofl:

[Proyecto2000]

PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Crude Future 43.86 -1.52 -3.35 07:23


:clap:

[eljefe]

The news that GM has substantial doubt about its ability to survive might just be what HOD holders need to turn the direction oil has been taking. As stated above oil is sliding- not massively, but sliding.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090305/business/cbusiness_us_gm

[SilverRex]

ok thursday

looks like oil is giving back some of its gains which is certainly nice for all your oil bears.

can this reverse put oil back on the death train path once again that oil has done so many times in the last few months? or is it simply a retracement gearing up a next leg up?

well from a technical stand point, shooting pass 45 was huge because it raises alot of warning flags for both bear and bulls, alot of indicators on the daily charts are showing signs of reverse and ready for higher upside I guess how the DOW does probablly plays a huge part and so far pre-market is down hence oil is down as well.

looking at the numbers its at 44 as I type this, the lowest it got to was 43.65, now this was the breakout level that got retested yesterday. If oil is to regain this range back onto 40, it MUST close or get below this figure, sure there are other supports like the same trendline now at 43.25 but lets do this one step at a time.

and for upside I say having oil back below 45 is a temporary gift for bears because now we can look for some resistance to be establish before jumping on the bull train again, I'll worry again when it gets above 44.75

otherwise again a few hurdles, but never impossible, oil bears need price to break 43.65, then 43.25, then 42.67, if we see under 42.50 then you can breath easier, I use the example like being down 3 - 0 in a hockey game, you just have to score one goal at a time, but at the end you could still loose, lets hope (for all you oil bear sake) it can make a come back in this game

you will ask why at 42.50? because oil could find one of the above support levels to resume it up trend thats was sucks about it for today.

if oil price starts to consolidate between 43-45 into some sort of flag pattern, then watch out, up side is still in play.

as for gold. while the reaction was weak but none the less it did rallied off 901 (899 was lowest), chart wise it has all the right stuff for a short term rally. I see gold to at least get back to 930-940 before next leg down if there is one.

the same chartist who saw the 6883 hidden support suggested because it closed below without much reaction, this could potentially lead DOW to the next level which is at 5794 unless the DOW could rally all the way back to 7900. We will see how this plays out, because DOW is currently forming a U shape bottom that could potentially kick off a multiday rally and this would be bad for oil bears.

edit: 43.25 is a big one a bounce here could easily resume oil's direction upwards, since this level is both a retracement 38% and previous down trendline which now becomes support. the retracement is the 39.50 low to 45.7 high, which means oil could still be in a heathy pull back and wont turn bearish unless you get much lower, that is why it is so important for oil to hold its ground below 45.30 which it didnt

update: oil is so far still under the 44.75 area, I guess now its a above or below situation and bulls and bears are both waiting for their signal to force a direction.

gold isnt going nearly as well as I had hope, even though we are still above 901 the reaction cause alittle concern, that perhaps we could see lower? while everything looks good for at least a good rally, if 901 doesnt hold next up is 875.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex


gold isnt going nearly as well as I had hope, even though we are still above 901 the reaction cause alittle concern, that perhaps we could see lower? while everything looks good for at least a good rally, if 901 doesnt hold next up is 875.

The worrying thing about Gold is that it keeps retracing back to the 900-910 resistance without ever really breaking above 915/920. It's stuck in that channel.... for now......

I'm setting stops in case we see it slide below 895......

[SilverRex]

^

gold looking like its a small 1 2 3 reverse head and shouldrer in the lower level charts. I think the rally is about to show up but it will require a break above 917 to confirm it

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

gold looking like its a small 1 2 3 reverse head and shouldrer in the lower level charts. I think the rally is about to show up but it will require a break above 917 to confirm it

Interesting - I didn't see that. Good observation.

I think this channel is a good thing though as it defines a solid lower threshold..... so as long as you set stops..... it lets you calculate your downside quite easily.

[SilverRex]

update: DOW hitting new lows, that is good for oil

but even though the 44.75 area held and rejected oil, oil could stay put in a wedge and breakout to the upside.


that is why it is so important for oil to destroy the 43.25 support and make a move to 42.50 to ensure the bulls jump out of this.

I would be happy DOW does head to 5000s because that should bring oil back down and its good for you oil bears and also good for oil bulls (me because I want 30 or below oil to load up upon)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil8.jpg

[davidI]

I bailed on HOD at $30.44 and basically broke even (profit covered comissions + change). I want to wait and see how things shake out before entering again.

[djayz]

Golding hitting up the 930 level...stay in or get out and wait for the dip again?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

oil got as low as 42.86 (42.90) the 100 day moving average and also the trendline support.

a very good come back indeed, thanks to the continous sell off of the over all market.

the DOW was suppose to continue its rally yesterday and began a multi day rally that would put oil above 45, forunately, the sudden turn in the market help drive oil price lower and the sharp drop in the last 15 mins is a result of bulls jumping off the wagon.

:nut:

one more support break below 42.90 and sustain below = victory from a 3 - 0 deficit

it is scary though because bulls have fall back and all concentrate their firepower right at 43 area, now back to 43.83, bull knows this area is important, because if it doesnt hold, oil is officially back in the contro of bear territory

as you can see on the chart, there is two important lines, the top one current at 44.60 and bottom at 43.11. Which ever area it brokes out to will be the direction oil wants to go.

even if price was to consolidate sideways within that descending wedge that will still give the upside to bulls.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil9.jpg

[sm91]

i've been trying to pick up GOZ

http://www.goldoreresources.com/s/StockInfo.asp

Anyone know the symbol to use with Questrade haha, i cant get anything to work

[RX_EVOLV]

Im loving the HGU I picked up yesterday! but I think Gold still has some leg though, gonna hold on and see what happens tmr

[max_boost]

Still holding my HBU and HGU. Going with the SilverRex plan, buy more on huge dips.

As for the Dow, going to be very hard to sustain any momentum. GM/GE/BAC/C are killing it.

Tomorrow's employment report won't be good. Hopefully it'll help out the oil bears!

:D

[Proyecto2000]

Max, did you get out of HOD?

[broken_legs]

Well S&P is at the days lows... oil isnt going any lower. Hanging in there right on the trendline.

Sooooooooo I bought some HOU


We'll see tomorrow if that was a good move.

Hopefully the HungaryNet doesnt die on me!

[The_Rural_Juror]

I have a collar on either way. I should be okay as long as the moves are definitive and consistent. What's out in Hungary? I have always wanted to go there.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
Max, did you get out of HOD?

No sir.

Selling is conceding defeat to the bulls. Let's see how the markets react to the unemployment report tomorrow. You have to believe in your cause.

:D

Originally posted by broken_legs
Well S&P is at the days lows... oil isnt going any lower. Hanging in there right on the trendline.

Sooooooooo I bought some HOU


We'll see tomorrow if that was a good move.

Hopefully the HungaryNet doesnt die on me!

You are a brave man. :eek:

[SilverRex]

has anyone read this back in feb 14? by Jim Sinclair?

Officially “Out Of Control”

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Comrades In Golden Arms,

I sent you a certain few emails that I consider to be the most important communications issued in my career that started in 1958.

I am the son of what I know to have been the greatest Lone Wolf trader in Wall Street history ever, Bertram J. Seligman. He was a past master at his business and believed to be a market sensitive. I apprenticed to him, learned from him and inherited some of his ability, not all however.

From this background of experience understanding and sensitivity the following flows.

The emails of note:

1. Said, "This is it."
2. Said, "It is now."

This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, "It is totally out of control." There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.

For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.

Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.

1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven't you are headed for significant displeasure and strain.

2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods.

3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.

4. Own gold.

5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required.

6. For currencies, all you can do is own a spread held by a true custodial ship wherever that might be.

Simply said, as of Friday February 13th, 2009 the situation is in confirmed "Out of Control" mode as this well engineered downward spiral enters into a terminal phase.

The motive was profit and degree of the disintegration caused in the pursuit of this goal was not anticipated.

The key event was when Lehman was flushed - all hell broke loose. The hell cannot be contained in any practical manner.

I seek nothing of you but the protection of yourselves.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

[SilverRex]

^

the market (DOW) has since kept dropping.

obviously all I Care about is gold lol bring on 2000 gold baby.

Jim also made a wager awhile back in 2008 that he will give you 1 million dollars if gold hadnt reach 1650 by 2011 Janurary

there is also a conference in April by the Gold anti trust action committe GATA to uncover the gold manipulation.

check out www.goldrush21.com
http://www.gata.org/goldrush21

even Alf Field is part of the video, I like his analysis of how gold is in a major wave 2 currection (or is already completed at 681) and we are on a major three leg up to 3500 ounce gold

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by The_Rural_Juror
I have a collar on either way. I should be okay as long as the moves are definitive and consistent. What's out in Hungary? I have always wanted to go there.

http://photos-d.ll.facebook.com/photos-ll-sf2p/v648/150/1/656195724/n656195724_6104571_3302944.jpg
Do you guys remember Falcon Oil?


Originally posted by max_boost


Selling is conceding defeat to the bulls. Let's see how the markets react to the unemployment report tomorrow. You have to believe in your cause.

:D


You are a brave man. :eek:

Heres what im thinking right now...
What do you think the reason was the reason for the continued sell off today? Unless theres a huge surprise to the downside i think it's got to be priced in ahead of the release. Something is dragging us to all new lows - Oil is stil hanging out and oil inventories are dropping. If the market turns do you think oil will still go down? what are the chances that the markets continue to slide down? We've had 13/17 days down a lot. I still believe theres a vicious rally hiding in there somehwere in all of this.

I've got money parked on the side to buy puts on SKF and SDS for when it comes. Right now the vix is really high so the premium on options is also really high... I think i might try and short havent really decided.

[Aleks]

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/05/news/economy/jobless_claims/index.htm

[broken_legs]

Another way to think about it:


If you are the smart money who is short financials, short everything for the last 2 weeks and have made out like a bandit - Are you really going to stay short over the weekend and risk losing some of your gains?

[BigMass]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Another way to think about it:


If you are the smart money who is short financials, short everything for the last 2 weeks and have made out like a bandit - Are you really going to stay short over the weekend and risk losing some of your gains?

just remember, even with Citi stock at $1, it's market cap is still 5.5 billion. For a company that, for all intents and purposes is bankrupt that stock price is still high.

[liquid1010]

Originally posted by SilverRex


The emails of note:

1. Said, "This is it."
2. Said, "It is now."

This communication is to inform you as of 2/13/09, "It is totally out of control." There is no longer any means of reversal of the beginning of the final phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion.

For your sake, protect yourselves immediately.

Be prepared for disruptions in distribution common to hyperinflation.

1. You should have already distanced yourself from your financial agents. If you haven't you are headed for significant displeasure and strain.

2. Make sure you stay three months ahead on necessary items that could experience distribution delays such as prescribed medicine and preferred foods.

3. Even though real estate is far from a buy, if you can afford a second home outside of major cities it would serve a good purpose.

4. Own gold.

5. Consider that good gold shares of non-US companies incorporated in a non-US country operating in third country, traded on multiple exchanges are a means of money expatriation legally and in broad daylight if required.


I'm not a big fan of fear-mongering in that sense. I do believe things have the potential to get worse before getting better, but those types of statements are based less on macro-economic theory than on "concepts". I like to focus on facts such as:

1 - Bank of England is basically printing 75 Billion, with an option to print another 75 Billion to improve liquidity. They are going to recapitalize their banks by buying their assets - even though inflation last year was already above their target of 2%.

2 - US is injecting massive amounts (2 Trillion?) of money into the markets, and buying toxic assets that may hold little value. The Fed is holding fewer worthwhile bills, and is holding tons of toxic assets - with technically unknown values.

3 - Expenditures on capital assets both in the oil field and other major industries is being slowed drastically or halted entirely. Although there is a glut of capacity due to massive demand (credit expansion) over the past 8 years..... sooner or later things come full circle. This may take while, but sooner or later capacity will lag behind again...... driving up prices.

All in all - I still like Gold as a trade.... but only as a limited investment. At it's core - it's simply a hedge.

[lasthuzzah]

What's good when inflation runs wild?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by lasthuzzah
What's good when inflation runs wild?

Gold is usually a hedge against inflation.

[SilverRex]

Friday

this could be a big day for the market

especially gold, now at 934 after touching 942 I believe, why? 942 is just another barrier. Gold needs to clear the 200 day around 936 even though it did, it could easily still become a resistance. current range is 926-947, look for 926 to hold if this trend is legit. I wont get too excited with gold unless it can get abkve 947, if it does then boy does that make the 901 price support I mention a few days ago look awesome.

Im happy right now because I got in silver right at 12.48 it was 50% retracement, while I did anticipate more weakness at that time so I can pick up more around 11.8-12.00 but now its trading at 13.44, its going to make my day none the less.

Either way is good, make new low I more than welcome so I can add to my position, if it takes off unsuspectingly (since alot of people are still waiting for 875 or even 800 for that matter) then I am well position for a flight to 2000 gold.

oil still stuck in the range and since the pattern still looks bullish, the bull case for oil is not completely dead until it can as of right now clear and hold below 42.89 I say by more than 1 hour. otherwise it appears oil could be waiting of the the market reacts, further weakness means weaker oil. but a big rally you know what happens . and oil would be bullish above 44.30.

if your a gambler, I would buy at 43 with a very very tight stop and hope the price channel contains itself for an upside breakout, if you long oil, but if you short oil I Would short around 44.30 with a very tight stop too to anticipate a downside breakout.

anyways looking at HGU, weekly charts looks very good but the index which closed at 286 will need to close above 290 today in order to put in a buying signal. I am disappointed if didnt see lower again I would rather add more position. but the hui signals a reversal then this correction could be it.

[SilverRex]

update.

so unemployment is worse than expected and so is non farm payrolls :) looking good :D

[997TT]

SR gold at 941.38 ... its going up pretty damn quick
HGU at $13.02....think its wise to take some profits here?

[SilverRex]

update.

the Gold hui index is breaking out, its at 294, if we can close above 290 this week, it would all be well for gold, because strength in gold share is a indication gold is about to move higher.

while I do not rule out the possibly of a lower hui index, but the 260 that we bounced off eariler in the week is a very good starting ground if gold shall move higher from here.

I would feel more comfortable if hui had put in a double bottom at 260 or even head lower towards 220-240 because that would present an unbelievable buying opportunity. The gold shares are still undervalued relative to the performence of recent gold prices. it is only a matter of time when they catch up if not exceed the peroformence of gold. If you think gold will be in the 1500-2000 sometime next year, then think 500-900 on the hui index, therefore the 260 we saw a few days ago is simply a bargin if you can ride it out.

Yes the hui index can easily jump off 260 now and march towards a retest of its high at 327. I would believe the next time we see it break 327 we will see 400 shortly after. That would put HGU in around 23-24 dollars. I cant stress enough that in terms of HGU anything in the 11s or below is a good pickup.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
SR gold at 941.38 ... its going up pretty damn quick
HGU at $13.02....think its wise to take some profits here?

if you plan on short term trades, yes I would say take your profit off the table and see what happens.

because

A. If gold moves higher, you at least already made money

B. If gold gets back down, you have a chance to get back in where you got in or even potentially lower.

therefore a Win win situation.

but for me, I Would really keep my eyes on the number, if hui closes above 290 I will hold it. or you can use that as your stop loss exit.


but

if your long term like you believe gold to at least reach 1200-1600 in the next 6-12 months, then 10, 12 or 13 HGU it does not matter, I'll hold it as long as I can until at least 23-24 because I find there will be some resistance there at around 400 hui

also gold closing above 940 is big too. there fore I say if hui is above 290 and gold is above 940 when market closes, then it will be a very good week next week for gold

[broken_legs]

testing yesterdays lows on the SP... Will it hold?

If it doesnt i will take my 5% on hou and run

[SilverRex]

^

look at the bigger picture, the S&P after broken the previously multi year low, I'll say it has alot more to go down, DOW is already putting in new lows.

I say next target to reach is DOW in the 5500 and S&P at 600 but some guys are calling in the 460 for S&P clearly a massive double top when S&P first hit 1500s, and now it broke thru the the low in 2003, boys get ready for a wild ride down. (why 5500 and 600? because its the 61.8% final retracement. regardless if the market is to repeat the great depression of loosing 98% of its value or not, I think the 5500/600 will no doubt make some noise

of course it could bounce, but to where? probablly just back to the support that it broke.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/SP.jpg

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

look at the bigger picture, the S&P after broken the previously multi year low, I'll say it has alot more to go down, DOW is already putting in new lows.

I say next target to reach is DOW in the 5500 and S&P at 600 but some guys are calling in the 460 for S&P clearly a massive double top when S&P first hit 1500s, and now it broke thru the the low in 2003, boys get ready for a wild ride down. (why 5500 and 600? because its the 61.8% final retracement. regardless if the market is to repeat the great depression of loosing 98% of its value or not, I think the 5500/600 will no doubt make some noise

of course it could bounce, but to where? probablly just back to the support that it broke.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/SP.jpg


That chart just ruined my day.:facepalm:

Goodbye Schlumberger pension plan...

[SilverRex]

now I also read that some are saying if you compare the 2003 bottom and today, there is a lot of similarities, so if this recession turns out to be the as bad as 2003, then perhaps the bottom is RIGHT around the corner.

who wants to believe the mess we are in are the same magnitude as we saw in 2003?

because if its worse, then we havent seen the bottom yet

however, oil looks like its hitting bottom, some gold bears are calling gold has topped. This is quite the moment. Do we really think this is it?

now I cant recall too much detail in 2003 other than knowing it was a tech bubble bursting. But I dont think the financially were hit that hard in 03 than they are today. Where was GM back in 03? where was BAC in 03? I think we are in way worse condition than 6 years ago, which tells me how can the market have bottomed?

I expect a good rally but I think we will see a much lower equity market.

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, I agree we are no where near bottom. Things appear to be far far worse than just 5 years ago. IMO, we might not even be half way to bottom. :poosie:

DOOM DOOM DOOM
:devil:

[SilverRex]

all index posted new lows today, I think this will be the normal for a while

[max_boost]

^

That's what I've been saying all along. There are no clear solutions to this mess. At the beginning of Feb when the Dow was at 8000 and the TSX was close to 9000, I decided to load up on HSD and HXD. You warned me about shorting the index so close to the bottom, remember? :D

Anyway, I sold those two way too early and only returned 15-20% where as I could have got up to 50% especially on HSD if I held on longer. I got greedy because I thought HOD could give me bigger returns. Yes and no. I made money on the run up to $47 HOD but got stopped out a couple times on the way down and now I'm stuck.

Yeah it's market forces working against me as usual but it's my fault really. Every time I think I have oil figured out, it throws me a curve ball to teach me a lesson. So, I'm still believing in $35 oil one more time so I can cash in but that's officially it for speculating oil. I'm following SR and going to move everything into the metals so I can sleep better at night.

[liquid1010]

SilverRex - question for you:

Thoughts on cashing out of ABX, and rolling over into GLD?

*Just checked the options chain on GLD - and the options are very expensive. Implied volaitility is 10% higher than historical volatility.

For those also interested in Gold.... check out the GOFO rates. An indicator of Gold price increases can be seen by watching this rate - and here's it's movement:

DATE - 1 Month
Jan5th - 0.16714
Jan23rd - 0.21429
Feb10th - 0.33167
Feb 25th - 0.48571
Mar 5th - 0.49000

[broken_legs]

SPX is on the days lows and Oil was forming a wedge then broke out to the top.... Lets see what happens with this. Maybe Oil will lead the market?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by liquid1010
SilverRex - question for you:

Thoughts on cashing out of ABX, and rolling over into GLD?

*Just checked the options chain on GLD - and the options are very expensive. Implied volaitility is 10% higher than historical volatility.

For those also interested in Gold.... check out the GOFO rates. An indicator of Gold price increases can be seen by watching this rate - and here's it's movement:

DATE - 1 Month
Jan5th - 0.16714
Jan23rd - 0.21429
Feb10th - 0.33167
Feb 25th - 0.48571
Mar 5th - 0.49000

are you planning on buying options? I'm no expert in that field but between abx and gld you can really say gold share or gold itself (GLD) is really a ETF fund isnt it.

I'll simplify by saying if you have a higher risk tolerence but want a potentially higher return than gold share is the place to be, gld is definately a safer bet.

its like saying should I Buy HGU or HBU. based on my calculation, if gold were to hit 2000 in coming years, HGU has the potential to go from 10 dollars to about 100 dollars where as HBU which tracks gold will only go from the current 17 dollars to 56 roughly.

gld will give you less return because its an ETF fund that tracks gold price almost 1 to 1, so you will only double.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


are you planning on buying options? I'm no expert in that field but between abx and gld you can really say gold share or gold itself (GLD) is really a ETF fund isnt it.

I'll simplify by saying if you have a higher risk tolerence but want a potentially higher return than gold share is the place to be, gld is definately a safer bet.

its like saying should I Buy HGU or HBU. based on my calculation, if gold were to hit 2000 in coming years, HGU has the potential to go from 10 dollars to about 100 dollars where as HBU which tracks gold will only go from the current 17 dollars to 56 roughly.

gld will give you less return because its an ETF fund that tracks gold price almost 1 to 1, so you will only double.

when would you buy HGU? its 12.40 now, it went down, i'm trying to get out of HSE in the next few days and put some shares in HGU,,, what you think,,,?

whats going on with oil, its all over the place.... so lets say oil doesn' go down to 39 or whatever it needs to so HOD can go up so you guys can get out, and lets say it just keeps on going up, and the lowest at ~43, what will happen to HOD, would it go up after some time ???

thanks...

[SilverRex]

as I wrote this morning that if oil breaks above 44.30, it will be bullish and surely it is playing out by the books.

as in

the descending wedge was indeed a bullish pattern

the 50 EMA is pusing price further higher

look at the daily chart, its all ready to pop folks.

last saving grace? maybe a double top at 45.70 but that is just plain dangerous, now you need oil to break the red line to stop the bulls from taking over

oil at 50 or oil at 35, plus the roll over is around the corner next week. as a long term trade, both it is getting very difficult to play oil at the moment, until a trend reveals itself, it will be difficult.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil10.jpg

[SilverRex]

.

[KleanCord]

Silver Rex try looking at log charts for a difference from the linear charts. The economy moves exponentially not in a linear fashion and the log charts are probably a better indicator of this. Using this the double top doesn't look so disastrous.

Also it looks like volume has died off on your chart. If we were still trading on the volumes saw in November I would be more concerned.

Other stuff:
Let's say you were to compare a 12 year chart of 1962 to 1974 to todays charts they would come out almost identical when using the logarithmic scale.

Jan 1966 - 93.26 Jul 1998 - 1140.80
Sep 1966 - 77.67 Sep 1998 - 1009.06

Dec 1968 - 107.93 Aug 2000 - 1506.45
Dec 1970 - 76.90 Sep 2002 - 800.58

Dec 1972 - 118.05 Oct 2007 - 1535.28
Sep 1974 - 62.34 Now - <680

Rising food and oil prices hurt the economy in the 70s, combined with a deflation in the housing and equity markets. Not to mention the deficit spending caused by the Vietnam war.

9.0% unemployment in 1975 which would subside only to rise to 10.8% in the 80s because Jimmy Carter would increase taxes.

I know there are a lot of doomsayers, but this too will pass. The media wants to act like this is different, but it is hardly any different from major recessions we have seen in the past.

[broken_legs]

Made a few trades today booked a 1000.00. I just bought into HOU at the high of the day

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/March609.jpg


Sooooooo Oils going to finish at the high of the day and the indexes are going to finish at new lows...


Seems like Oil is doing its own thing now. I think I'll stay on this one over the weekend and see what happens.

[Proyecto2000]

I hope oil goes down next week, I bought HOD just under $36 this week and I wanna get out bad. I should have stuck to flipping Suncor :banghead:

[broken_legs]

Dow and SnP rallied back hard right before the close. I didnt even notice we closed up! I'd say that was last minute short covering. WE rallied from the lows of the day to even in 15 minutes.

[Z_Fan]

Oil is crazy volatile. I wouldn't hold HOD or HOU over the weekend simply because there could be a huge gap in the wrong direction for whatever it is you are holding.

I figure on Monday there will be a +3 dollar swing. The only problem is I got no idea which way! I'm thinking down, but you can see it definitely wants to test $50.

It's also that time of year where oil typically goes up so everyone can get fucked at the pump. So you could easily see it going higher for that reason alone.

[broken_legs]

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=73582

+ charts and more news/analysis etc...



For the week, the oil price rise was driven by a number of factors -- surprising strength in domestic oil inventory data, a positive report about OPEC's cutback compliance and signs that oil demand is rising. When the U.S. Department of Energy reported its weekly oil inventory data last Wednesday, crude oil inventories only rose by 717,000 barrels, about half the 1.2 million barrel rise anticipated by analysts. Gasoline inventory fell by a surprising 3.3 million barrels, although refinery capacity utilization was down reflecting industry efforts to take advantage of weak petroleum demand to undertake refinery turnaround operations early.

Another positive was the report from Petrologistics, a tanker tracking company, suggesting that OPEC members were achieving about an 89% compliance with the cartel's December 2.2 million barrel a day production cutback. At the same time, Dubai announced it was reducing further the amount of oil it will supply to refiners in Asia in March, which has revived hope that OPEC may be positioning to institute another production quota cutback at the body's March 15 meeting.

[Toma]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Oil is crazy volatile. I wouldn't hold HOD or HOU over the weekend simply because there could be a huge gap in the wrong direction for whatever it is you are holding.

I figure on Monday there will be a +3 dollar swing. The only problem is I got no idea which way! I'm thinking down, but you can see it definitely wants to test $50.

It's also that time of year where oil typically goes up so everyone can get fucked at the pump. So you could easily see it going higher for that reason alone.

Saudi increased its prices for local refiners, which is usually a good indicator of what will happen at the Opec meeting on the 15th... Not sure over the weekend, but I see Opec cutting production at the meeting, and prices should rise...a bit.

I was gonna play it with an option straddle to be safe, on some sort of ETF. Maybe USO?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
I hope oil goes down next week, I bought HOD just under $36 this week and I wanna get out bad. I should have stuck to flipping Suncor :banghead:


i know what you mean, suncor is the best, i too went from suncor to HSE,,, and i'm kicking my ass,,, as soon as i went to HSE it went to 52week low, just my luck :banghead: :banghead: i want to get out nd just hold suncor.... IMO suncor is the best to hold/trade..... hope it goes down to 22-23 again :):clap:

[broken_legs]

Mark to Market hearing in congress next week...




http://www.cnbc.com/id/29549920


This could be HUGE for financials! I'm going to be buying the rumor this Monday... Just need to figure out where the best bang for my buck is going to be.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so FAS? a 3X etf?


I was thinking call options on XLF or like pete says FAS, or puts on SKF...

Going for the 'quadruple my money in 2-3 days' scenario


ie March Calls on XLF are going for 0.25 right now...

You still have 2 Friday before expiration and the volume on them is pretty decent (45,000)

Or 6.00 March calls... They are going for 0.60 and XLF is 6.20. So if XLF hits 7.00 they have to be worth at least 1.00, probably more like 1.20. Thats a 13% rise in XLF but 100% return on your money if you sell those calls.

Edit:
To be safer i would buy the April calls and give yourself an extra 4 Fridays to lose all your money haha

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Dinan



i know what you mean, suncor is the best, i too went from suncor to HSE,,, and i'm kicking my ass,,, as soon as i went to HSE it went to 52week low, just my luck :banghead: :banghead: i want to get out nd just hold suncor.... IMO suncor is the best to hold/trade..... hope it goes down to 22-23 again :):clap:

I had 2 good chances to get out of HOD take a $5.50/share loss and make $2 - $3 a share, 2 times this week. The more I think about it, the more I kick my self about not taking the HOD loss and recovering the money back with 2 Suncor flips.

O well, there is always next week :thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Toma


Saudi increased its prices for local refiners, which is usually a good indicator of what will happen at the Opec meeting on the 15th... Not sure over the weekend, but I see Opec cutting production at the meeting, and prices should rise...a bit.

I was gonna play it with an option straddle to be safe, on some sort of ETF. Maybe USO?

Read an article saying they won't cut production because of the strength in the $USD. Who knows though, oil can turn +/- in the blink of an eye. Far too many variables pulling things. Every time something happens, there's a new explanation explaining why :nut:

USO=no leverage
HOU=2X

I'll short it at $50 :D

[Z_Fan]

Oil might just hit $50 tomorrow. It's already up to $46.70 right now. LOL.

Sucks for anyone holding HOD.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

Unfortunately the difference is only $2 now between roll over. Gone are the days of the huge roll overs to save HOD's ass. HOU could become the steamroller stock that HOD was the last couple of months. At least for the next couple weeks.

Time will tell. I hope it hits $50 and then tanks back to $35. Hahahah...

I will probably buy some HOD if oil goes to $50 this week.

[Sky]

http://goldseek.com/news/CliveMaund/2009/3-8cm/2.gif

[broken_legs]

The weekly chart for oil looks pretty bullish too.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Unfortunately the difference is only $2 now between roll over. Gone are the days of the huge roll overs to save HOD's ass. HOU could become the steamroller stock that HOD was the last couple of months. At least for the next couple weeks.

Time will tell. I hope it hits $50 and then tanks back to $35. Hahahah...

I will probably buy some HOD if oil goes to $50 this week.

lol :rofl:

That's the plan bro. I have a monster buy order set at $50 oil so roughly $22 HOD. I hope the rest of my fellow bears are lined up at $50 for the fight hahahaha :devil: :whipped: :guns:

[Proyecto2000]

im still standing here waiting for Oil to tank so that I can sell my HOD. It's actually kinda sad that I am cheering for Oils downfall, considering that I work for the oil patch and ironicly i am also one of the last few surviving members from our office that has yet to be layed off :rofl:

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost


lol :rofl:

That's the plan bro. I have a monster buy order set at $50 oil so roughly $22 HOD. I hope the rest of my fellow bears are lined up at $50 for the fight hahahaha :devil: :whipped: :guns:

Don't you still have quite a bit at a cost average of 34ish Max, or were you fortunate enough to get out earlier?

[SilverRex]

Monday,

after most index hit new lows last week, from a technical stand point, it does look as though we are heading to much lower, but you can say the oil and cooper chart posted eariler here does show they are breaking out. Now that is not to say all market breaks out together, but they are an indication that perhaps a very strong recovery could be right at right the corner,

the premarket is down, so maybe you will have one final push for a very new low then the buying could begin.

Now can you imagine if the market was to being its rally where would oil be? Yes that is scary, sometimes the market will go where it needs to be and move where it wants to be, the over all chart for oil still looks bullish, and if I was big on going oil long term I may start to feel I have missed oil when it was under 40. Thanks to the roll over and future contract prices, you will be hardpress to find it difficult to obtain low 30 dollar oil unless you can get that price in the forward months which we never did.

As for today while oil made new highs into the 46-47, it has quickly fallen back. current support is right at around 45, then you have not much happening until 42.50. Surely this doesnt look for gold bears because this would imply there is plenty of support anywhere from 42.50-45, and oil could be just waiting for the market rally to push higher. That is how I see it.

if my technicals are in line, then the 45.3 that it broke last week means we will see 52-53 soon. only a matter of time and the timing of the markets. Do I want oil to drop? hell yeah, I'm still waiting and wanting to get in <30 dollar oil, but what can I do if it never comes? I want lower oil prices, but technically its reading bull all over it. So bears trade with caution.

The longer oil holds its head above 35, the stronger this support becomes, then you will only get two out come, either, this triple bottom at 35 is it. no more low oil and we will trade between 40-50 for a while, then 50-60, then 60-70 you get the idea? because if 35 does break, that could be huge as well, a free fall you can say.

as for gold, after bounce off around 901 last week, this was viewed as a very solid place for entry for longs. now sitting at around 933, the immediate support is right back at 930 followed by 920 and 901 of course. thank fully that gives us bulls something to hold on to, while I view gold is the place to be in the coming years, there is enough people out there and forces that wants it go fall as well, this 900 area will be very important if gold wants make a move higher in coming months. A loss around 901 could put gold in a side way action for quite a while. I am sure we are all anxious and wish gold could suddenly be at 2000, the question is never will go make that mark, its a matter of when it will happen, but a typical gold bull market could be around 17 years, we are only at our 8th I believe. So the next 9-10 years, we will see gold rise to new highs, but we will also witness another 30-40% drop as well.

but personally I think the 800-900 area will be the ultimate support and launching pad for gold into the 4 digit area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil11.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold5.jpg

[SilverRex]

also looking at the US dollar index which measure the strength of the greenback

you can tell its preparing for another drop (forming another broadening wedge, it is only a matter of time. And when it does collasp, I can only say a weak US dollar is good for stocks, oil and gold.

I have the big feeling that the index is trying to put in a HUGE head and shoulder pattern like it did in 05/06 that led to the swoon from 90 to 70 in two years. we already have the left shoulder in november, the next collasp below that trendline support shown in the below chart will confirm that head, then we may get another rally after words for the right, then this death signal will trigger a mass exodus of US currency reserve holders

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar.jpg:nut:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[LBG]

50$ oil will = do what HOU? thanks guys

[e36bmw///]

nm

[LBG]

thanks!

[Proyecto2000]

CNRL is doing great this morning, as are all the other oil majors. :thumbsup:

[civic_rida]

24 dollar hod.
Not what it use to be.

[civic_rida]

50 dollar oil = ?? hod

[eljefe]

Originally posted by civic_rida
50 dollar oil = ?? hod

22ish I think

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Dinan



i know what you mean, suncor is the best, i too went from suncor to HSE,,, and i'm kicking my ass,,, as soon as i went to HSE it went to 52week low, just my luck :banghead: :banghead: i want to get out nd just hold suncor.... IMO suncor is the best to hold/trade..... hope it goes down to 22-23 again :):clap:

I hear ya.

I also finally jumped into HSE only for the damn thing to go to $25 range. I said I would buy if I ever saw it below $27.50 again and bought at $27.30. Ever since it has been up and down from that but not enough to cash out.

Petrobank (PBG) is another one you should look at. Chart looks better than Husky, they have decent fundamentals but even better land and technology assets.

Others are:
Petro-Can - I don't like the stock but they are consistently trading between $24 - $30. Good for trading, I think ultimately bad for investing.
and
Highpine (HPX) - If you want to dip into the small juniors they have a great balance sheet. Zero depth, are drilling right now, and are primarily oil, so they won't be affected too bad from natural gas prices if they remain low like I believe.



Suncor I am still iffy on. I would like someone to make a compelling case to me on why I should go into Suncor. P/E is still high considering your other Canadian producers, They have 8 billion in debt, are reliant on high oil prices, and are still trading at 2004 levels. For those who have done research let me know your findings, I just ruled them out on a quick glance so I am not all that knowledgeable on specifics.

[jonnycat]

Originally posted by max_boost


lol :rofl:

That's the plan bro. I have a monster buy order set at $50 oil so roughly $22 HOD. I hope the rest of my fellow bears are lined up at $50 for the fight hahahaha :devil: :whipped: :guns:

I have nothing invested in either HOD or HOU, and my opinion is basically useless, but my gut tells me oil is gonna tank and you'll be sitting pretty.

[broken_legs]

Picked up some April 8.00 calls on XLF. Just 15 contracts nothing crazy... Looks like the premium has gone up quite a bit since Friday.


In and out of HOU a few times from the hotel in Hungary, booked another 1300. Going to keep some long coming into wednesday.

Im impressssed the markets arent selling off here. Obamma is about to speak about stem cell research.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I hear ya.

I also finally jumped into HSE only for the damn thing to go to $25 range. I said I would buy if I ever saw it below $27.50 again and bought at $27.30. Ever since it has been up and down from that but not enough to cash out.

Petrobank (PBG) is another one you should look at. Chart looks better than Husky, they have decent fundamentals but even better land and technology assets.

Others are:
Petro-Can - I don't like the stock but they are consistently trading between $24 - $30. Good for trading, I think ultimately bad for investing.
and
Highpine (HPX) - If you want to dip into the small juniors they have a great balance sheet. Zero depth, are drilling right now, and are primarily oil, so they won't be affected too bad from natural gas prices if they remain low like I believe.



Suncor I am still iffy on. I would like someone to make a compelling case to me on why I should go into Suncor. P/E is still high considering your other Canadian producers, They have 8 billion in debt, are reliant on high oil prices, and are still trading at 2004 levels. For those who have done research let me know your findings, I just ruled them out on a quick glance so I am not all that knowledgeable on specifics.

WOW, i got nailed with HSE at 27.50, damn it was never that low and i bought it, and what it does after, it goes to 52 low, at 24.8 or something,, just my fuckenn luck ehhh,,damn... i don't know what to do, should i wait till it goes up to 28 and sell and make 1k or hold it for longer?? it looks bad, the TSX doesnt want to go up nor the DOW or ANYTHING for that matter,,,,i should have cashed out at 28.20 when it was few days ago :banghead:


suncor has a good range to trade too, 22-26, but when it dipped to 21, that was a good buy, and now it's 29,,, damn... it will go down soon... don't think to 21 but 23 it should... i hear good stuff on BNN lol about suncor how it's a really good company... so i dunno...


so what you planning on doing with your HSE ???

[SilverRex]

im not sure if anyone remembers this but back in early 2008


robert Kiyosaki predicted the crash, and suggest loading up on silver. Now the one thing I guess everyone metal bulls failed to saw coming was the initial deflationary trigger and fear also bought gold and silver down siginificantly. And also the US dollar had went into a greatest bear market rally ever. But ultimately when things stabalizes, gold/silver will continue to swing higher and the US dollar will resume its downward spiral.

for gold/silver bulls like myself, I like the gauge that one day we could see a single family house costing less than 500 ounce of silver, that could put silver anywhere from 100-400 dollar an ounce. I know some of you on this board are discounting everything I say and even well before I started posting on this thread some of you are just bearish on the metal because you cant eat it, drive it.

but guess what, it is not like your going to be putting every dollar into it to the point where if it fails to ignite you will be be in shock, rather all you need to do is diversify your investment profolio so that you at least have coverage in the metal sectors.


http://www.buyinggoldandsilver.com/VIDEOS/tabid/74/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/17/Rich-Dad-Robert-Kiyosaki-2008-Predictions-on-Gold-and-Silver-2559.aspx

[max_boost]

Originally posted by eljefe


Don't you still have quite a bit at a cost average of 34ish Max, or were you fortunate enough to get out earlier?

Yeah. It's going to be a huge gamble at $22. It'll bring my cost down to $26! :eek:

It's going to hurt if it breaks and holds above $50. Debating where to set my stop if my order goes through. You would think it's going to tank but what if it doesn't? What if it goes $50--->$55----->$60 and keeps climbing? :nut:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
im not sure if anyone remembers this but back in early 2008


robert Kiyosaki predicted the crash, and suggest loading up on silver. Now the one thing I guess everyone metal bulls failed to saw coming was the initial deflationary trigger and fear also bought gold and silver down siginificantly. And also the US dollar had went into a greatest bear market rally ever. But ultimately when things stabalizes, gold/silver will continue to swing higher and the US dollar will resume its downward spiral.

for gold/silver bulls like myself, I like the gauge that one day we could see a single family house costing less than 500 ounce of silver, that could put silver anywhere from 100-400 dollar an ounce. I know some of you on this board are discounting everything I say and even well before I started posting on this thread some of you are just bearish on the metal because you cant eat it, drive it.

but guess what, it is not like your going to be putting every dollar into it to the point where if it fails to ignite you will be be in shock, rather all you need to do is diversify your investment profolio so that you at least have coverage in the metal sectors.


http://www.buyinggoldandsilver.com/VIDEOS/tabid/74/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/17/Rich-Dad-Robert-Kiyosaki-2008-Predictions-on-Gold-and-Silver-2559.aspx

Thoughts on SSO.TO? Silver Standard Resources Inc

Any silver ETF's out there with or without leverage?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost


Yeah. It's going to be a huge gamble at $22. It'll bring my cost down to $26! :eek:

It's going to hurt if it breaks and holds above $50. Debating where to set my stop if my order goes through. You would think it's going to tank but what if it doesn't? What if it goes $50---&gt;$55-----&gt;$60 and keeps climbing? :nut:

Well goodluck on it, here's hoping you score large!

[max_boost]

Oil is settling back down now. Only +$0.90 at $46.40

What gives?

[lasthuzzah]

Alot of people want the USD to crash, but careful what you wish for.

IF the USD crashes, and the markets don't recover that is hugely deflationary. I don't expect (my opinion) gold to go rocketing up, because it didn't before. It went up a little bit but nothing like the gold bugs were predicting.

Oil going higher is a good sign of recovery, but if it tumbles back down AND the USD crashes, that means (again) huge deflationary sign for oil.

And I'm waiting for 22 HOD like Max :)