Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by max_boost

You would think it's going to tank but what if it doesn't? What if it goes $50--->$55----->$60 and keeps climbing? :nut:


Thats what scares me :eek:

[bigbadboss101]

Wow, oil price went from up 1.17 to up 1.65 in 5 minutes.

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Wow, oil price went from up 1.17 to up 1.65 in 5 minutes.

Your talking about 1.65% (75 cents) increase right? what site do you guys look at, for the current price of oil?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


Your talking about 1.65% (75 cents) increase right? what site do you guys look at, for the current price of oil?

http://nymexdatardc.cmegroup.com/index.html

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


Your talking about 1.65% (75 cents) increase right? what site do you guys look at, for the current price of oil?

i use this... updates every min

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php

[Proyecto2000]

thanks guys

[e36bmw///]

nm

[sheena]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000



Thats what scares me :eek:


what do you think about BAC and Citi?

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Dinan


WOW, i got nailed with HSE at 27.50, damn it was never that low and i bought it, and what it does after, it goes to 52 low, at 24.8 or something,, just my fuckenn luck ehhh,,damn... i don't know what to do, should i wait till it goes up to 28 and sell and make 1k or hold it for longer?? it looks bad, the TSX doesnt want to go up nor the DOW or ANYTHING for that matter,,,,i should have cashed out at 28.20 when it was few days ago :banghead:


suncor has a good range to trade too, 22-26, but when it dipped to 21, that was a good buy, and now it's 29,,, damn... it will go down soon... don't think to 21 but 23 it should... i hear good stuff on BNN lol about suncor how it's a really good company... so i dunno...


so what you planning on doing with your HSE ???

Keeping it.

Husky is a good company with a rock solid balance sheet. I got into every stock right now saying that I would only buy stuff that I wouldn't mind being "stuck with."

Husky is probably the best China connected O&G producer in Canada and are having very favorable results out of their Liwan natural gas fields off the Indo-Asia cost. If I was selling natural gas that is where I would want to be, piping it China and Indonesia. Not one of the producers in the Horn River right now.

They have a great track record, have been around through multiple booms before and also have heavy connections with their management to Hong Kong.

Plus it doesn't hurt they are yielding just over 4%. Better than a savings account.

Also one other thing is the crack spreads are getting enormous right now. I wanted to get a fully integrated O&G company that made money off the refineries. I am not sure how much they make from their refinery and downstream sales but I am willing to bet it will be enough to help beat analyst expectations for Q1 which will likely be pessimistic.

Holding until it reaches an over bought state on the Stochastics and/or reaches an obvious resistance. Somewhere around $32 dollars.

Let me see if I can find an article I read on them recently that might make you feel better. After I bought them, I read it and it helped with my buyers remorse.
EDIT: Like to article. Keep in mind Husky is considered to be a failure at their SAGD project thus far. I think theirs is Tucker but I get the names mixed up. I just know they haven't produced that much, they are well below their targets and it has unsustainable water usage. Husky seems to say the project is/will be a success thus far, but they are ranked last place when it comes to SAGD. This could actually be seen as a positive right now. I think in a $75 oil market being bad at SAGD is a huge negative. But right now no one makes money on SAGD projects, so it probably does not hurt their bottom line as much as EnCana.

But they have arguably some of the most experience in the industry when it comes to the unconventional stuff, like carbonates and bitumen. Good knowledge to have if you are a long term investor type.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3043911



SilverRex,

What do you use to position yourself in silver, and do you have any suggestions for best way to take advantage of Platinum. TSX would be preferable.

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Husky is probably the best China connected O&G producer in Canada and are having very favorable results out of their Liwan natural gas fields off the Indo-Asia cost. If I was selling natural gas that is where I would want to be, piping it China and Indonesia. Not one of the producers in the Horn River right now.
I've been working Horn River for the last eight months, and I agree with you, that play, along with the shale gas plays of Texas and Wyoming have the possibility of crippling natural gas investment in North America.

I don't personally think that's how it's going to go, but I'm an optimist.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Keeping it.

Husky is a good company with a rock solid balance sheet. I got into every stock right now saying that I would only buy stuff that I wouldn't mind being "stuck with."

Husky is probably the best China connected O&G producer in Canada and are having very favorable results out of their Liwan natural gas fields off the Indo-Asia cost. If I was selling natural gas that is where I would want to be, piping it China and Indonesia. Not one of the producers in the Horn River right now.

They have a great track record, have been around through multiple booms before and also have heavy connections with their management to Hong Kong.

Plus it doesn't hurt they are yielding just over 4%. Better than a savings account.

Also one other thing is the crack spreads are getting enormous right now. I wanted to get a fully integrated O&G company that made money off the refineries. I am not sure how much they make from their refinery and downstream sales but I am willing to bet it will be enough to help beat analyst expectations for Q1 which will likely be pessimistic.

Holding until it reaches an over bought state on the Stochastics and/or reaches an obvious resistance. Somewhere around $32 dollars.

Let me see if I can find an article I read on them recently that might make you feel better. After I bought them, I read it and it helped with my buyers remorse.
EDIT: Like to article. Keep in mind Husky is considered to be a failure at their SAGD project thus far. I think theirs is Tucker but I get the names mixed up. I just know they haven't produced that much, they are well below their targets and it has unsustainable water usage. Husky seems to say the project is/will be a success thus far, but they are ranked last place when it comes to SAGD. This could actually be seen as a positive right now. I think in a $75 oil market being bad at SAGD is a huge negative. But right now no one makes money on SAGD projects, so it probably does not hurt their bottom line as much as EnCana.

But they have arguably some of the most experience in the industry when it comes to the unconventional stuff, like carbonates and bitumen. Good knowledge to have if you are a long term investor type.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3043911



SilverRex,

What do you use to position yourself in silver, and do you have any suggestions for best way to take advantage of Platinum. TSX would be preferable.

thanks for that, i might hold it for bit longer too,,, i just don't understand why it's not moving that much, the oil price is up,,, suncor killed it today, and HSE is up like .20$ ......


so they yiel 4% every three months??? howlong do you have to have your money there to get that?? sorry new to this, dont know how it works....

thanks

[Canmorite]

Breakout in Oil? 45 Held nicely. Good thing my parents JUST got out of energy...:banghead:

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Dinan


thanks for that, i might hold it for bit longer too,,, i just don't understand why it's not moving that much, the oil price is up,,, suncor killed it today, and HSE is up like .20$ ......


so they yiel 4% every three months??? howlong do you have to have your money there to get that?? sorry new to this, dont know how it works....

thanks

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. Yield is the amount paid out per year.

So if the stock price is $25 and they pay out a total of $1 a year in dividends they yield 4%.

It seems small I am sure, I know I never looked at dividends when I first started investing because it was such a small total. But consider that this is the only true realized gains you get from stocks. Sure they have gains on the market but those are never realized until you cash out. At least dividends earn you real money.

Consider the other ways to earn real money without timing the market are in things like savings accounts which typically will yield < 3% right now.

As for when you get the dividend the information is available in their press releases on their website. Try googling Husky dividend. They have a declaration date where you must own the stock as of that day. It is actually a few business days before the declaration day for paper work processing. Then they have the payout date which will be shortly after that. You will receive money directly into your account or a cheque in the mail, depending on how you set up your brokerage account.

4% would be considered quite substantial in a normal market, but nowadays stocks all over the place are yielding much higher than that. High yield is not necessarily a good thing because that indicates that investors believe that the dividend is not safe and that the company will reduce it or get rid of it completely to save cash. This is called a value trap, when people buy into a stock because of the high yield only for the company to reduce the dividend and the stock price goes down because of that. The banks are a classic example of this right now. Most people don't believe the dividend is safe and so you are seeing them yield percentages that are normally thought to be unsustainable.

[slick2404]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. Yield is the amount paid out per year.

So if the stock price is $25 and they pay out a total of $1 a year in dividends they yield 4%.

It seems small I am sure, I know I never looked at dividends when I first started investing because it was such a small total. But consider that this is the only true realized gains you get from stocks. Sure they have gains on the market but those are never realized until you cash out. At least dividends earn you real money.

Consider the other ways to earn real money without timing the market are in things like savings accounts which typically will yield &lt; 3% right now.

As for when you get the dividend the information is available in their press releases on their website. Try googling Husky dividend. They have a declaration date where you must own the stock as of that day. It is actually a few business days before the declaration day for paper work processing. Then they have the payout date which will be shortly after that. You will receive money directly into your account or a cheque in the mail, depending on how you set up your brokerage account.

4% would be considered quite substantial in a normal market, but nowadays stocks all over the place are yielding much higher than that. High yield is not necessarily a good thing because that indicates that investors believe that the dividend is not safe and that the company will reduce it or get rid of it completely to save cash. This is called a value trap, when people buy into a stock because of the high yield only for the company to reduce the dividend and the stock price goes down because of that. The banks are a classic example of this right now. Most people don't believe the dividend is safe and so you are seeing them yield percentages that are normally thought to be unsustainable.

good read. thanks

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/fp/Housing+starts+plummet+Calgary+region/1272771/story.html

66% damn

anyone have that website where it shows your property value of your exact house?

i cant remember the website address
thanks

Uhhhhhhhhh

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/fp/Calgary+housing+starts+fall+February/1370102/story.html

[broken_legs]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598466



According to the Pentagon, Chinese ships shadowed and maneuvered dangerously close to a U.S. Navy vessel in what appeared to be an effort to harass the American crew.

Meanwhile, OPEC next meets on March 15 to set output policy again and the 12-member producer group says it could reduce output again.

...

In other words oil is no longer in contango and that’s a bullish sign, according to Seymour.



etc.. etc..


I halved my position in HOU even right before the bell yesterday.

I'm hoping for a bit of early morning weakness then she'll start to move again then i want to be out before the inventory data, maybe holding a small position just in case.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Unfortunately it doesn't work like that. Yield is the amount paid out per year.

So if the stock price is $25 and they pay out a total of $1 a year in dividends they yield 4%.

It seems small I am sure, I know I never looked at dividends when I first started investing because it was such a small total. But consider that this is the only true realized gains you get from stocks. Sure they have gains on the market but those are never realized until you cash out. At least dividends earn you real money.

Consider the other ways to earn real money without timing the market are in things like savings accounts which typically will yield &lt; 3% right now.

As for when you get the dividend the information is available in their press releases on their website. Try googling Husky dividend. They have a declaration date where you must own the stock as of that day. It is actually a few business days before the declaration day for paper work processing. Then they have the payout date which will be shortly after that. You will receive money directly into your account or a cheque in the mail, depending on how you set up your brokerage account.

4% would be considered quite substantial in a normal market, but nowadays stocks all over the place are yielding much higher than that. High yield is not necessarily a good thing because that indicates that investors believe that the dividend is not safe and that the company will reduce it or get rid of it completely to save cash. This is called a value trap, when people buy into a stock because of the high yield only for the company to reduce the dividend and the stock price goes down because of that. The banks are a classic example of this right now. Most people don't believe the dividend is safe and so you are seeing them yield percentages that are normally thought to be unsustainable.

thanks for the info.....


lets go HSE, +2.50 and i might be out..... :dunno:

[KleanCord]

my god.

I have seen a miracle. HOU is in an uptrend.

To the ETF experts out there, what happens with HOU when contango is reduced or completely eliminated.

It is easy to guess it is good for the fund, but just how much of a premium are people buying HOU right now paying for contango.

[sputnik]

From the Globefund Market Blog (www.globefund.com) this morning.

Looks like even the biggest gold bulls are now turning into bears.


Soured on gold
David Berman, today at 9:31 AM EDT

Dennis Gartman, who has at times over the past 12 months expressed fondness for gold, is now severing all ties to bullion. The reason? The gold market has not rallied, even when various events should have sent it soaring.

“Crude oil is rallying; and yet gold falters,” he said in his daily Gartman Letter. “The grains rallied; and yet gold faltered. The base metals have rallied, but gold is faltering. The monetary authorities have force fed money into the system, and yet gold is faltering.

“In an environment where gold should be heading skyward, it is not, and when something that should be rallying isn't, we pay heed, find our keys, call for the valet to bring our car around and leave the party quietly.”

On Tuesday morning, gold traded at about $911 (U.S.) an ounce, down about $11. In mid-February, it had shot above $1,000.

[civic_rida]

When to buy hod that is the question.
Hopefully no one here is holding 40+ hod.

[broken_legs]

Gartman was on CNBC a couple months ago before the last run to 1000 saying how gold isnt going to rally.

How the highs are lower and lows are higher.... Then gold rallied to 1000, came back and hes still saying the same stuff.

Either he knows something we don't or he's sour grapes.

XLF+10% today. My calls are up 50%

Sold my half position of HOU for a tidy 80 dollars at the open today haha. I'm waiting for a pullback. Oil isn't rallying like the markets are, that tells me something is up.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[KleanCord]

We are at a turning point. Right now is slowing down and will be interesting to see which way the markets turn. This could be a huge rally day if we go up from here.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by KleanCord
We are at a turning point. Right now is slowing down and will be interesting to see which way the markets turn. This could be a huge rally day if we go up from here.

the dow is already up 4%, but the volume has been pretty big for the first hour so I really want to believe it, but at the same time up 4% in a morning is ripe for a pullback.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by broken_legs


the dow is already up 4%, but the volume has been pretty big for the first hour so I really want to believe it, but at the same time up 4% in a morning is ripe for a pullback.

Gold just cracked below 900.

Oil just cracked 48

Copper is remaining strong at 169 and up .35 cents in the past 10 minutes.

The key is looks like it is forming a simple retraction if you believe in Elliot Wave theory as opposed to the head and shoulders.

It is funny after how much action there was to start, I swear that my 10 stocks I look at haven't had more than a few active trades in the last 10 minutes.


Please don't turn down.

oh as I finished this it appears the market may have answered.

[DJ_NAV]

Still got 40+ HOD, and I put like 70% of my money into it, so there isnt too much money left to average down. On the other hand, I might make some money off HGD finally.

Don't you guys think oil is just gonna crash? Lower demand due to US economy should eventually equal to lower oil price.

[KleanCord]

Just hit a double top. Too bad.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
Still got 40+ HOD, and I put like 70% of my money into it, so there isnt too much money left to average down. On the other hand, I might make some money off HGD finally.

Don't you guys think oil is just gonna crash? Lower demand due to US economy should eventually equal to lower oil price.

It depends on what you mean by crash.

For 1 month it has been setting higher lows. The charts indicated that it was climbing. It traded on higher than average volumes as it broke $47.

OPEC meets on the 15th and this time any cut they announce will not lower the price, is my guess.


The problem is risk. Is it riskier to short oil now or was it riskier to short it at $100+. I don't like the 2x etfs but I know that some on here do and can offer a better opinion.

If I would be into it I would never average down on them. I would also short oil at $50 and go long at sub $40. But remember oil is narrowing it's trading range and it is due for a heavy move in either direction. I would have to guess up because of the following:

1) Baltic Dry Index is up.
2) Gasoline stocks are down.
3) Market is due for a rally.
4) OPEC should announce some sort of cut.
5) Seasonality it is the season for oil to go up.

Remember though this is a long to intermediate term perspective. You want to consider the short term based on the nature of the ETFs.

[Proyecto2000]

all my money is tied up with $36 HOD

[DJ_NAV]

Yes, I usually deal with ETF's on a short term basis, but I got super busy last week and didn't have time :banghead:

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Just hit a double top. Too bad.

broke the double top on a third run up, this would have to be very bullish. In a market like this seeing a double top would almost certainly mean nothing but shorting.

Let's hope it goes up.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
Yes, I usually deal with ETF's on a short term basis, but I got super busy last week and didn't have time :banghead:

That sucks man.

I should mention too that your comment on lower demand in the US should equal lower oil prices has already been true, so it is not like it hasn't come to fruition yet.

One thing I don't like about oil prices, aside from my job depending on it, is that if oil was to go up $10 the demand would still be the same.

It mostly moves based on economic conditions, not necessarily the demand for oil. It should be relatively inelastic but it is not due to speculation.

[KleanCord]

can someone do me a favor and start buying Precision by the millions. I hate this stock so much, I sold out of it once already at a huge loss only to buy back in like a fool.

[max_boost]

Yeah man, oil is testing my patience right now. Do I buy some now just in case it doesn't go to $50? Time to flip a coin because I really don't know. Tomorrow's inventory report is another moving factor. I need some insider info from the EIA!

Alright so I just got up not long ago, so what's the reason for today's rally? Did someone say something? :nut: :dunno:

[bigbadboss101]

Who is buying $10 HGU?

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by max_boost
Yeah man, oil is testing my patience right now. Do I buy some now just in case it doesn't go to $50? Time to flip a coin because I really don't know. Tomorrow's inventory report is another moving factor. I need some insider info from the EIA!

Alright so I just got up not long ago, so what's the reason for today's rally? Did someone say something? :nut: :dunno:

1) We were at a 38% deviation from our 200 day moving average. I went back and did calculations and the most I could find in a market bottom was 32% in 1974.

2) Bernanke spoke for an hour before the market opened. I love this man. Hopefully I don't see Geithner and Obama for a while.

3) Citibank produced great results. Record setting revenues in Q1.

If you get that info on EIA make sure to share. :drool:

[Proyecto2000]

Precision is hurting bad, bought Greywolf for $9 a share and now PDs shares are $2. Greywolf should take PD out and pocket the rest of the cash they made \:bigpimp:

[megafandrew]

not sure if it was mentioned I dont have time to read all this thread right now but Suncor shares would be an excellent choice. They are lower in price right now but won't stay that way. They have hit over $100 at times and they will again. Plus they split every so often so you will gain double the shares you had. I dont know hwy more people aren't buying them or mabey because they are a little bit more $$ or not as well known but look into them

[eljefe]

Originally posted by megafandrew
not sure if it was mentioned I dont have time to read all this thread right now but Suncor shares would be an excellent choice. They are lower in price right now but won't stay that way. They have hit over $100 at times and they will again. Plus they split every so often so you will gain double the shares you had. I dont know hwy more people aren't buying them or mabey because they are a little bit more $$ or not as well known but look into them

They only hit 100 before the last share split- the current suncor shares have NOT hit 100 since the split, they were around 70 and that was with 148 dollar oil.

[DJ_NAV]

^correct.
also when you buy shares like suncor, you try to see which other similar companies may provide better return too. but suncore went from 22 to 30in just a few days. dang should have got on it!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
^correct.
also when you buy shares like suncor, you try to see which other similar companies may provide better return too. but suncore went from 22 to 30in just a few days. dang should have got on it!

lol, im kicking my ass for that, now i'm with HSE and that thing doesnt want to move at all :banghead: :facepalm:

[djayz]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Who is buying $10 HGU?

Picked up another chunk at 9.90 today.

Also picked up some SLW yesterday at 7.90 which was kind of an impulse.

We'll see how these work out, HGU should be back up to the 12 range in a few days, and SLW should be touching 9 in a few days as well, atleast I hope :rofl:

[gogglespaesano]

hoping my HGU gets filled @ $9.50

im going all in... SilverRex appreciate any further insight in gold!

thx
GP

Originally posted by djayz


Picked up another chunk at 9.90 today.

Also picked up some SLW yesterday at 7.90 which was kind of an impulse.

We'll see how these work out, HGU should be back up to the 12 range in a few days, and SLW should be touching 9 in a few days as well, atleast I hope :rofl:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
^correct.
also when you buy shares like suncor, you try to see which other similar companies may provide better return too. but suncore went from 22 to 30in just a few days. dang should have got on it!

If you look at Suncor's recent price history, it's been doing the $20 to $30 thing several times now!


Originally posted by djayz


Picked up another chunk at 9.90 today.

Also picked up some SLW yesterday at 7.90 which was kind of an impulse.

We'll see how these work out, HGU should be back up to the 12 range in a few days, and SLW should be touching 9 in a few days as well, atleast I hope :rofl:

HGU < $10 is a :thumbsup: in my books.


Originally posted by gogglespaesano
hoping my HGU gets filled @ $9.50

im going all in... SilverRex appreciate any further insight in gold!

thx
GP


Where is SR?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[sputnik]

Originally posted by max_boost
Where is SR?

Perhaps contemplating Warren Buffett's take on gold.

BUFFETT: I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won't do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo will be making a lot of money and there will be a lot--and it's a lot--it's a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that. The idea of digging something up out of the ground, you know, in South Africa or someplace and then transporting it to the United States and putting into the ground, you know, in the Federal Reserve of New York, does not strike me as a terrific asset.

[DJ_NAV]

HOD in the green now!

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by max_boost


If you look at Suncor's recent price history, it's been doing the $20 to $30 thing several times now!


The key is it is supposed to have broken resistance after climbing above $29.80. I just don't think it did because we are seeing the price steady at $30 despite the rest of the market having an up day. I would play Suncor by waiting for it to break resistance go up and then buying once it heads back to $31 again.

As to the poster recommending Suncor I also mentioned previously I don't see the tremendous value in the company that keeps getting mentioned.
It hasn't been discounted as much for a company that is going to need +$65 oil. It has a lot of debt and it's P/E is relatively high. I am waiting for someone to make a compelling argument to invest in it. Trading in it I understand, but investing wise it seems to now be the best choice.

[max_boost]

Oil isn't moving so you know all eyes on cushion tomorrow.

Get ready to place your bets!

Two scenarios if the inventory count is going to be the deciding factor.

A. Surplus. Oil will fall to $43 ---->$30 HOD
B. Reduction. Oil will test $50 ----> $23 HOD

Oil bears, what would you do? Buy now and hope it goes in your favor or hold the fort at $50 oil? :dunno:

[DJ_NAV]

already in hod.. so not much to think about now.

at the same time... gold is moving quite a bit.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oil isn't moving so you know all eyes on cushion tomorrow.

Get ready to place your bets!

Two scenarios if the inventory count is going to be the deciding factor.

A. Surplus. Oil will fall to $43 ----&gt;$30 HOD
B. Reduction. Oil will test $50 ----&gt; $23 HOD

Oil bears, what would you do? Buy now and hope it goes in your favor or hold the fort at $50 oil? :dunno:

Yeah you knew that there would be no oil movement up today when it didn't budge from $47 despite the markets up 5%.

Be sure to emphasize the bets part.

[civic_rida]

gold is getting killed.

[DJ_NAV]

anyone buying HGD?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord


The key is it is supposed to have broken resistance after climbing above $29.80. I just don't think it did because we are seeing the price steady at $30 despite the rest of the market having an up day. I would play Suncor by waiting for it to break resistance go up and then buying once it heads back to $31 again.

As to the poster recommending Suncor I also mentioned previously I don't see the tremendous value in the company that keeps getting mentioned.
It hasn't been discounted as much for a company that is going to need +$65 oil. It has a lot of debt and it's P/E is relatively high. I am waiting for someone to make a compelling argument to invest in it. Trading in it I understand, but investing wise it seems to now be the best choice.

yeah but i don't know about HSE, it's clean and all but i noticed it doesnt like being over 27... whats up with that,, it was always in the 28-31 range, just befor i got into it at 27.5...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Dinan


yeah but i don't know about HSE, it's clean and all but i noticed it doesnt like being over 27... whats up with that,, it was always in the 28-31 range, just befor i got into it at 27.5...

This is natural. Think about what you and I said before about how anything below 27.50 is a buy. The reason that is, is because that was the natural support it formed.

Once you break your support, it now acts as resistance.

Once HSE breaks 27.50 on good volume it goes back into that 28-31 range. So if you want you can sell next time it gets to 27.50 and be done with it. Or wait it out and wait for a breakout to occur and wait until hit 31 to sell. Or if you are an investor forget about it and don't look for a year.

But consider the following.

It has now narrowed it's trading range albeit a 5 day period. It has gone up on growing volumes and down on shrinking volumes.

This suggests to me that when a breakout does happen there is not going to be very many sellers and they are almost exhausted from the system. That is a good thing for the price.

If oil inventory reports come out tomorrow and cause a large downturn in oil then all this is somewhat a moot point.

[KleanCord]

Looks like Gold is forming it's right shoulder. Could be a bad sign for Gold Bulls.

[sputnik]

I think we need some new ETFs for this thread.

max_boost bear/bull ETF

SilverRex bear/bull ETF

Leveraged to track 10x against their portfolio value.

[troyl]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oil isn't moving so you know all eyes on cushion tomorrow.

Get ready to place your bets!

Two scenarios if the inventory count is going to be the deciding factor.

A. Surplus. Oil will fall to $43 ----&gt;$30 HOD
B. Reduction. Oil will test $50 ----&gt; $23 HOD

Oil bears, what would you do? Buy now and hope it goes in your favor or hold the fort at $50 oil? :dunno:

Cushing? :dunno:

[lasthuzzah]

Originally posted by max_boost

Get ready to place your bets!



I couldn't wait any longer, and I bought at the market this morning and went to work.

Filled at 25.10 and now I'm happy man. I bought 1000 shares.

Gotta get back to work :(

[max_boost]

Originally posted by sputnik
I think we need some new ETFs for this thread.

max_boost bear/bull ETF

SilverRex bear/bull ETF

Leveraged to track 10x against their portfolio value.

lol

It's been mentioned a couple times but people are too scared to short my picks so it's just all talk. You have to put your money where your mouth is! :thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by troyl


Cushing? :dunno:

Cushing Oklahoma where the crude is stored. The inventory count is a market moving indicator and investors use it to gauge demand.


Originally posted by lasthuzzah

I couldn't wait any longer, and I bought at the market this morning and went to work.

Filled at 25.10 and now I'm happy man. I bought 1000 shares.

Gotta get back to work :(

Nicely done. You always get in good when it comes to HOD. :thumbsup:

[KleanCord]

looks like oil does not want to crack $45.50. If the reports tomorrow are pro oil watch out.

[SilverRex]

Sorry folks, been busy all morning.

But lately I have been absorbing alot more info on gold

while gold remains bullish in my books, it may be the complete opposit to some of you.

There is so many variables that could trigger gold/silver price in both directions.

for gold bear

-gold was in a bubble territory when it hit 1033 back in march 2008 and since then alot of bearish analyst is calling it to further bottom sometime this year to around 400-500 ounce. based on the history that in 1974-76 gold dropped 50%

-obviously large US banks and co are shorting gold contracts at records level to stop prices from exploding higher. currently they are holding one of the largest short position ever on the comex

-history shows gold tends to perform poorly during recessions unless it was an inflationary recession

-gold had a good 7 year uptrend and could easily exhust it self for a few years before setting course for another 7 years run so there is a group out there that expects gold is not ready for the final parabolic run to 5000 just yet.

-Some technical expert calls the 1033 top as the final Elliott wave which we are now on a downward wave pattern that will see gold reach as low as 550

-some are calling the recent 1006 level a double top and some even say its forming a head and shoulder pattern

gold bulls

-one would measure the performence of gold base on the goverment's money supply expansion and we all know what the US did in 2008. Base on current calculation for the 200 million or so ounce that the US has, to offset their balance sheet, gold will have to be in 5 digit territory. Even if this does not trigger an immediate surge in gold price, it has paved the way of a much higher gold price.

-the same Ellott wave analysis at a different angle suggest we are only at a large Major wave 3 move to the upside, even if you want to be conservative and say the 1033 top was a wave 3, that still puts us in a position to anticipate one more wave 5 to the upside.

-some are saying (if you so believe) gold is forming the largest cup and handle pattern ever and the consolidation around the 900 area is simply forming the handle before blasting off

-the bearish comparison for gold between 1970-1980 may not apply to current times because we never experienced the same magnitute of swings. Example, 74-76 gold dropped 56%, but so far gold has only managed to drop 34% so is this a show of strength?

-If and when china starts to unwind their 2 trillion dollar US reserve and buy some of the gold available, that would be enough to make gold prosper for many more years to come.

-a simple indicator the 50EMA death crossover while bearish back in september 2008 when it did cross over to the down side, in early Feb 2009, it crossed over to the upside couple with the fact it broke out of the megaphone downtrend tells me gold is not quite dead yet.

-gold price adjusted for inflation should be at around 1900/ounce,


all in all there are much more other influence then what I just posted.

no investment is a 100% clear as water, you just have to make good of what is available and trade according to one's risk torlerence.

gold can be viewed as a safe haven, wealth preserveation, real money, inflational hedge (at some point but not at the entire duration) or like Buffet says an asset to look at is hardly an asset at all.


Now I do believe gold will be broken down to two stages, knowingly the latter stage will be the most powerful to the upside that may not happen until we run into another crisis which I think will be a currency crisis or inflationary recession down the road.

until then what stands in our way is, will the manipulation of the US banks and co be able to push gold further down? while there is always a possibily that gold can suddenly sell off back into the low 500s, but the recent run since november seems to suggest there is definately more buying then selling happening here.

I wont run to the hills unless I see gold become bearish technically, such as the 50EMA crossing over to the down side on the daily chart, or price breaking below 800. Until then I can only say the gold bull is still in tact and even if it does get to 500 dollars I will add to my position. Dont forget Sept26 2009 will be the final date to end the gold selling aggrement across various countries. So as long as gold can hold its head high from now until sept I will only look at weakness as an opporunity

My recommendation, diversify your investment. dont put all your eggs in one basket. I think one is to invest in sectors or markets that benefits from inflationary measure down the road. Oil? energy? Agriculture? Healthcare?

[troyl]

Originally posted by max_boost


Cushing Oklahoma where the crude is stored. The inventory count is a market moving indicator and investors use it to gauge demand.



I know. Your original spelling "Cushion" was a little off. Thought i would give you a heads up as it is a very important place.

[KleanCord]

Nice write up Rex.

[KleanCord]

Finally a good sign for a rally.

Opening was daily low and close was daily high. 4% interday movement to create a somewhat long candle and 2% premarket to create somewhat of a jump. Volume was finally up.

I feel good about the next couple of days. I haven't had a feeling like this since end of December.

At this point, if the market was to go bearish tomorrow, the bulls will throw in the towel. You would have to think if that happens in itself it would cause a rally because that would be the big drop people were looking for.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

^

FAS? 3X ETF?

That's awesome. This thread is just full of gamblers. This isn't even investing anymore. We need to break this thread off into two sections. High risk leveraged speculative trading (with disclaimer so people know) and long term growth investing.

That way sputnik can post in the other one while us lemmings can continue posting here. :rofl:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

what are the 3x etfs for gold and oil??

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hahaha yea 3X

when that guy Bern whatever said financials should skyrocket, he recomended FAS

i took a gamble

what does it trade on tho? average of all? cause citi did 38% too so shouldnt have fas done 3X better?

Good call by by broken_legs but it wasn't the mark to market hearings that blew the lid open. That meeting is scheduled for Thursday! It was Citigroup's apparent profitable 1st two months that sent things through the roof. It better be the real deal or else things are going to tank so hard haha

FAS tracks the Russell 1000 financial index so an average of all. Can't seem to find the institutions listed in it though.

Set your stops though because one bad day will wipe you out!


Originally posted by DJ_NAV
what are the 3x etfs for gold and oil??

Seriously? You need 3X?
:eek:

[KRZY403]

might be a dumb question, but does anyone know if there are any websites out there that provides free real time quotes for Canadian markets??

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
if there was a 5X etf for oil id get it

and yea i wanna sell FAS tomorrow

Yeah I got out of the Financial trade today too. I was feeling conservative and I sold my options for 50% profit on XLF. Not bad for a 12 hour trade....

Thinking back I wish i put into the options market what I do into stocks and ETFs and I would be laughing right now! Problem is you need to be there 24/7 watching options, I can't set my trailing stops and bracket orders for options yet so I sold it before i left the hotel just to be safe.

I picked up another half position into HOU towards the day at 6.00 when i got to the rig... Then it went down to 5.80. I'm actually going to take a chance and hold it through the announcement tomorrow. I think a lot of people are probably short oil right now, and any positive news on the inventory data is going cause the short covering and send the price much higher like with the financials today.

Might try some more options trading on the financials and maybe some oil field service stocks too if this is a real rally... But i'd like to see a new trend not a singular 6% up day.

[SilverRex]

oil mass support is at 44 dollars both EMA and previous trendline which held up very well. IF oil rally has legs 44 is it other wise next leg down is at 41.50 and that would suddenly put the word wtf all over the bull camp


gold after closing below 901, its causing some concern for the short term out look, if gold doesnt close back above 905 today, it will look like it wants to test 875 as the next support. Obviously I hope the current area for gold can hold that would mean 875-960 range instead of 800-900 range for the weeks ahead.
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil12.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold6.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[sputnik]

Has anyone noticed the volume on FAS already this morning?

12 million... and up 10%



:eek:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Finally a good sign for a rally.

Opening was daily low and close was daily high. 4% interday movement to create a somewhat long candle and 2% premarket to create somewhat of a jump. Volume was finally up.

I feel good about the next couple of days. I haven't had a feeling like this since end of December.

At this point, if the market was to go bearish tomorrow, the bulls will throw in the towel. You would have to think if that happens in itself it would cause a rally because that would be the big drop people were looking for.

wow, nice call,, so far so good,,, everything is up... :) lets go HSE :D

[KleanCord]

Has anyone looked at CBQ.TO before.

It is a BRIC ETF from Claymore. I am probably going to be buying some units. One thing I don't understand is they have a portfolio of 89 stocks from Brazil, China, India and some from Russia. Is the price of ETFs like this based on how those individual stocks do or is just based on trading prices of the actual ETF.

EDIT:
I just bought some units. I will let everyone know how it goes. It looks good enough though.
Primary holdings are Petro-Brasil, Petro-China, China Mobile, CNOOC, etc. All the obvious targets.

Only 3% exposure to Russia and 42% and 40% to Brazil and China respectively.

It also pays out just under 3% yield, and has a Price/Book of 1 and a P/E of 7.1.

[broken_legs]

In other news, oil is coming back ahead of the EIA numbers...

EDIT:
Pardon me, got my time change mixed up from Europe here...

numbers are out and its looking good:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

[broken_legs]

I just bought 2500 HOU at 5.76. Stop at 5.65.


Theres a super obvious downward trned line HOU has been riding since yesterday. It broke down lat day and tested resistance at the close. Today it just broke through that line and is testing the support right now at around 5.70 ish

[broken_legs]

haha, looks like it just bounced off that line... Hou looking good here

[guessboi]

ING (intact) gearing to buy Aviva.

http://www.financialpost.com/most-popular/story.html?id=1374734

Time to get in soon! IIC

[KleanCord]

Help me out here. Inventory numbers were bad. I don't understand how they were good at all.

But on the good side oil held above $44. This is extremely bullish, as it is showing an obvious uptrend constantly finding higher and higher support. I think this is the next push to +$50 oil.

HOU is suddenly looking good to me, now that we are in a trending phase and no contango.

[civic_rida]

obama is speaking , financials are tanking

[sputnik]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
im hoping to sell mine at 4.50

Did you get out at above $4.20?

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by civic_rida
obama is speaking , financials are tanking

crap I can't believe I let that slip my mind. I thought he was supposed to talk tomorrow. Why can't he shut up and let the markets rally. This is the 3rd straight time he spoke after a rally and the 5th time in total.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Help me out here. Inventory numbers were bad. I don't understand how they were good at all.

But on the good side oil held above $44. This is extremely bullish, as it is showing an obvious uptrend constantly finding higher and higher support. I think this is the next push to +$50 oil.

HOU is suddenly looking good to me, now that we are in a trending phase and no contango.


from the report:
[b]Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 1.6 percent from the same period last year.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up 93 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.



The silver lining in a dark cloud. Inventories rose but not by much...

[sputnik]

Originally posted by broken_legs
The silver lining in a dark cloud. Inventories rose but not by much...

:werd:

Really only an increase of 700,000 barrels this week.

[KleanCord]

But the increase was worse than expected from what I read.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

so oil is what now?? bear or bull??

[max_boost]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
so oil is what now?? bear or bull??

Flip a coin bro.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by KleanCord


crap I can't believe I let that slip my mind. I thought he was supposed to talk tomorrow. Why can't he shut up and let the markets rally. This is the 3rd straight time he spoke after a rally and the 5th time in total.

Every time he talks, the markets shave off 3-4%. :rofl: :dunno: :nut: :eek:

[Z_Fan]

Well, I'm annoyed at BAC ... made my first bad decision with this stock. Basically I had flipped it a lot earlier, but got caught with shares at 5.32 and a big gap down next day.

I decided to hold and wait it out. Finally gave up on it on Monday and sold at 3.68.

So you can see why I'd be pissed after 2 days of rallying which started as soon as I sold my shares. :dunno:

Oh well.

I did get in to HGU at 9.73 as well as another bit at 10.49. Hope it runs up to 13.00 here before Friday.