Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

how do I know the trendline break was real at 44? look at the next chart. the circled area, after it initially broke it went back down to test that same line then completely reverse,

looking at the chart you get the feeling we are in a large uptrend channel

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil14.jpg

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
how do I know the trendline break was real at 44? look at the next chart. the circled area, after it initially broke it went back down to test that same line then completely reverse,

looking at the chart you get the feeling we are in a large uptrend channel

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil14.jpg

thanks for that!!


what program is that???

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil at 43.6 right now

watch out if it can get above and somewhat stay above 44 that would immediately become bullish

reason why oil got back above 43, because 43 was the 38% retracement from its recent surge from 39 to 48 plus on the over all chart, the 42-43 area is right at the trendline on the daily chart, you can say that was oil bulls's last stand

but I think there is upside and of what happen with oil above 45 makes me believe there is rally ahead. (if oil can re-enter 44 area)

but if oil does the opposite and goes below 42.35, then see you later oil bulls


since gold is very sluggish around the 900 area, gold isnt bullish unless it can get back above 923,
edit: gold just bounced off 907 sharply, hmmm some strength here, and if oil continues to push lower, is the market about take a nose dive?


it was loud and clear ;)

[max_boost]

Don't rush into HOD, if you have to, buy it as close to $50 oil as possible. You'll get the chance tomorrow.

[sputnik]

On the topic of Jeff Rubin and his market forcasts. Lets take a look at his forecasts over the past several months.

Call me a skeptic or call me in denial.

I just can't listen to a word that guy says anymore. He is a disgrace to the other economic and financial analysts out there.


July 7, 2008

http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/trading-desk/market-call/story.html?id=638145

CIBC's 2009 target was also cut to 15,250 from 16,200.

Rising interest rates in the U.S. coupled with soaring energy costs and falling home values "will deal a lethal blow to the hopes for a fast bounce back in growth," in the U.S., Mr. Rubin said, adding that the American economy will continue to "walk the fine line" between growth and recession "for a fair bit longer.


September 11, 2008

http://www2.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=43507229-d64c-4161-895a-9b7cc1d47e67

Speaking to the Global Business Forum in Banff, Rubin also argued indicators show the underlying cause of the crisis gripping U.S. and world financial markets linked to the credit crunch -- weakening U.S. home prices -- is close to an end.

"The underlying problem is about to be remedied," said Rubin, chief economist and strategist of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. He warned that amid global financial uncertainty, investors and corporate leaders need to be careful not to make poor decisions based on what he believes are fleeting conditions. He forecasts U.S. house prices will bottom and begin to rebound by the beginning of 2009, while oil prices could hit $200 in four or five years.


November 11, 2008

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=950317

"We are cautiously optimistic that we can ride out the balance of the year without any further systemic shocks," said Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets. In the report, he predicts the Toronto Stock Exchange will close the year at 9,500, and end 2009 at 12,000.

[91_Integz]

^^ Agreed. Jeff Rubin is an idiot. I can't remember the last thing he forecasted that was CORRECT. He's the brunt of many jokes in my office.

[troyl]

Originally posted by max_boost
Don't rush into HOD, if you have to, buy it as close to $50 oil as possible. You'll get the chance tomorrow.

Do you have stops in place for your HOD shares?

[djayz]

What's everyones take on financials right now?

Thinking of exiting a couple positions that I have in BMO and wait for a pullback but it seems that there has been some good strength in the financials for a few days now.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by sputnik
On the topic of Jeff Rubin and his market forcasts. Lets take a look at his forecasts over the past several months.

Call me a skeptic or call me in denial.

I just can't listen to a word that guy says anymore. He is a disgrace to the other economic and financial analysts out there.







Classic. I am not sure who is hiring economists nowadays, considering their track record is sometimes worse than your average joe investor.

I saw Roubin make this bold statement about the DOW 5000 after it crashed on Monday. He is the classic example of someone late for the party. Even if he is right, which judging by his track record you are better off to go against everything he says, he is only the 100,000th economist to say that.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by djayz
What's everyones take on financials right now?

Thinking of exiting a couple positions that I have in BMO and wait for a pullback but it seems that there has been some good strength in the financials for a few days now.

I can't read their balance sheets which hurts. Their liabilities are people saving money at the bank and their assets are underwater mortgages, it is completely backwards.

That being said they look close to forming a double bottom technically. At least Bank of Nova Scotia does.

Keep in mind Canada can lag the US in some cases. If this is true of a subprime crisis which some feel might be the case then we have yet to feel the full impact.

I think buying a bank here is good in the long run no matter what happens in the short term.

[KleanCord]

Suncor just broke out.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Suncor just broke out.

yeah i know,,, HSE is tayiing above 27, lest hope it joins the rest up there.....:thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 997TT
I have a stop in at $5.10. ... dont' want a repeat of what happened last month.

if i can ride HGU out for a $1/$2 i'll be thrilled.

Nice hit today sir!


Originally posted by 91_Integz
^^ Agreed. Jeff Rubin is an idiot. I can't remember the last thing he forecasted that was CORRECT. He's the brunt of many jokes in my office.

I had no idea he was so controversial. Thought it might have some substance coming from CIBC lol


Originally posted by troyl


Do you have stops in place for your HOD shares?

I'm way beyond stops now. My only hope is to buy a shit load at $22 to get my average down to $26 and then start selling it off.


Originally posted by djayz
What's everyones take on financials right now?

Thinking of exiting a couple positions that I have in BMO and wait for a pullback but it seems that there has been some good strength in the financials for a few days now.

Put a sell on stop :D

I know this might seem crazy but I actually hold stocks other than HOD! :eek: lol

Call it a hedge or whatever but in the past week I've bought in and sold RY/BMO/BNS/WJA/CNQ/ for quick $1-2 flips lol I know a few of the guys utilize the strategy of trading large caps at these levels, you, eljefe, davidI etc.

Now I'm left with HGU and HBU and ABX but gold is looking good so not concerned there lol

[civic_rida]

i have shares in "ctq" just jumped 14% in the last hour

[max_boost]

Markets have had a nice day. Shorting the TSX now. Bought a few shares of HXD! lol

[sputnik]

Originally posted by max_boost
I had no idea he was so controversial. Thought it might have some substance coming from CIBC lol

He is pretty much the village idiot among economists.

That said I will rarely listen to what any economist has to say these days. For the most part they seem to be doing whatever they can to make it in the press in hopes of being right and be acclaimed a genius.

Guys like Rubin are still around because people always fall for the same "he might be right this time" trap.

[KleanCord]

I have a question for those that are day traders.

How long have you been day trading for, and is it easier to make money in this kind of market?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so tomorrow hod/hou trade on may fully?

does this stuff even matter anymore now that contango isn't in play?

[civic_rida]

Been trading for just over 2 months lol

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by max_boost
Markets have had a nice day. Shorting the TSX now. Bought a few shares of HXD! lol

You can't always do my opposite trade?

I bought HOU yesterday, and HXU today...

Plan on being out of both before the afternoon. I can't see how we go down tomorrow but there is most certainly going to be some profit taking late day friday.

If there isn't then you know the sentiment is wholly bullish.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by max_boost
Markets have had a nice day. Shorting the TSX now. Bought a few shares of HXD! lol

You buy HXD and the TSX climbs another 50-60 points and we aren't even at the end of the trading day yet.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
FAS is up huge too today... i havent bought any but watching it


Yeah, I am pissed I didn't buy it when it was first mentioned in this thread. Which was actually in a URL to an article saying to buy it. (Posted on a Friday evening IIRC) It was $2.xx then and that was only on MONDAY of this week. It's now $5.xx.

I actually bought some this morning at $4.22 but I had to go out for the day and decided not to hold on to it and sold it at $4.36 on my way out the door. Again, now at $5.06 with a $5.18 high.

Decided I would hold my HOU which I bought at the same time this morning at $5.32. I actually just sold it at $6.00 and hope oil settles down a little tomorrow.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by sputnik


You buy HXD and the TSX climbs another 50-60 points and we aren't even at the end of the trading day yet.

I was just going to post that lmao
:rofl:

[davidI]

Originally posted by davidI
Any idea why Opti (OPC) is up 25% today? Take-over talks floating out there or what!?

43% now. Can't find any news. Wtf!?!?

[sputnik]

Originally posted by max_boost


I was just going to post that lmao
:rofl:

Looks like you got a bit of a dip in the last few minutes of trading.

[KleanCord]

Dammit.

So Quadra broke its resistance after I held onto it for such a long time only to sell it today.

Back in it tomorrow I guess.

Suncor (SU) and Quadra (QUA) had a clear resistance break today on higher volume, for anyone looking to have some sort of position in oil or copper.

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Yeah I was talking about this a few pages back. Technically it broke resistance on high volume. But you could tell that the next day it still didn't move despite the whole market going and it was stuck at $30. This one is better left to the sideline until it indicates a movement. Prepare to buy if it goes to $31, if not just wait for it to fall to $24ish. Something to keep in mind is that although it was breaking resistance on the TSX it wasn't on the NYSE due to the USD strength.


Suncor is well positioned to take advantage of rising crude prices, which we saw today. With a break above ~30 I like it from here. Could start building a position, then wait for a pullback to add to it.

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/3077/98904841.gif

[Dinan]

^^^^^ you would buy SU at 32+ ??? so what you think about HSE ?? it finished at 27.50 ???you think it could finally go up into the 30's???

[Canmorite]

I like SU more then HSE in terms of strength and momentum by simply looking at the chart. HSE hasn't made a significant move yet. ~27.50 is resistance for Husky, gotta break above that and have some sort of re-test...

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost
Markets have had a nice day. Shorting the TSX now. Bought a few shares of HXD! lol

I was thinking about doing the same

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^^^^ you would buy SU at 32+ ??? so what you think about HSE ?? it finished at 27.50 ???you think it could finally go up into the 30's???

I bought Suncor today at $31.31. Still haven't got rid of Husky.



Dinan here is an example of what could happen.

It's formed itself a nice little inverse head and shoulders and has maintained it's upper resistance. If it passes $28.03 then it will go up about the same amount that the head is down from the imaginary 28.00 line. That is about $3.

So there are two conditions.
1) Tomrrow
2) Sunday

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be seen as a profit taking day towards the end and no matter what Husky won't finish above $28. Then Sunday comes. If on Sunday OPEC announce no cuts or maybe something considered very small oil will bounce down just based on the news.

That will cause Husky to dip. But seeing as how Husky has set higher lows in the last week, the chances are it will finish higher than 26.60. Then from there it grinds it out and battles the 27.60 and can break above $28 on oils next run up.

If you are no longer comfortable think about selling out tomorrow. If you are confident in the long term prospects of the company what is another week going to hurt.

Final alternative. If no break above $28 is made then downward trend is confirmed and it is set to go lower.

Considering what the other oil companies are doing, the market and oil itself. I think we are just running into a classic case of range bound issues.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I bought Suncor today at $31.31. Still haven't got rid of Husky.



Dinan here is an example of what could happen.

It's formed itself a nice little inverse head and shoulders and has maintained it's upper resistance. If it passes $28.03 then it will go up about the same amount that the head is down from the imaginary 28.00 line. That is about $3.

So there are two conditions.
1) Tomrrow
2) Sunday

I have a feeling tomorrow is going to be seen as a profit taking day towards the end and no matter what Husky won't finish above $28. Then Sunday comes. If on Sunday OPEC announce no cuts or maybe something considered very small oil will bounce down just based on the news.

That will cause Husky to dip. But seeing as how Husky has set higher lows in the last week, the chances are it will finish higher than 26.60. Then from there it grinds it out and battles the 27.60 and can break above $28 on oils next run up.

If you are no longer comfortable think about selling out tomorrow. If you are confident in the long term prospects of the company what is another week going to hurt.

Final alternative. If no break above $28 is made then downward trend is confirmed and it is set to go lower.

Considering what the other oil companies are doing, the market and oil itself. I think we are just running into a classic case of range bound issues.

so what will make HSE go up this time IF opec says they will cut, cause the last few times oils been going up but hse hasn't...

i dunno.. i took out 400share today at 27.63... so if i keep them i'll average down... but still not sure....:confused:

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Dinan


so what will make HSE go up this time IF opec says they will cut, cause the last few times oils been going up but hse hasn't...

i dunno.. i took out 400share today at 27.63... so if i keep them i'll average down... but still not sure....:confused:

I don't know what to tell you. It is more a matter of the market decides.

Obviously oil has had little impact on Husky's price lately. Think of it this way. Husky goes up to it's resistance, people sell their shares for a profit. It dips. People buy in again, it goes to the resistance, this time more are investors and less willing to let go of their shares, it dips. This time even less are letting go and more are investors. Now it makes a pop when the market gets saturated with buyers and no sellers and it busts out.

I guess in short, what will make Husky go up is time. A company only comes out with financial statements every 3 months. There has been no news. So fundamentally there is very little difference between now and yesterday. The only difference is the TSX and Oil which change on a daily basis.

[SilverRex]

Friday,

ok boys, this could get very exicting I hope.

as I have been stressing for many weeks that gold and oil are both looking ready for a good pop. gold (to me) was in a correction and would take all weakness as a chance to get in, and oil was after breaking out of 45 was a clear signal that the down trend may have ended and now is about to form a trend. UP!!!

I hope those that followed me are well position in HGU for gold in the 11s or lower recently.

and technically I am happy to report that other experts are inline of what I see and here are some of their charts to save me some drawing time.

gold after breaking the massive down trendline is now holding very well above its 200 day moving average on the hourly chart, looking at the hui index which tracks closely to the performence of HGU you can clearly see we are (potentially today) on the verge of a breakout, once the breakout happens it could be exicting time as it gold share is slowly but starting to outperform gold again which can only mean one thing. Gold will rise, but you can see gold share take off first

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/3-12cv/1GoldBullionAndCrudeOilBuySignalsMarch12.jpg

I dont trade the GLD fund because they are in US dollars, but you can see the bounce off the trend channel is another signal once that sharp downtrendline is broken, all hell breaks loose

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/3-12cv/2GoldBullionAndCrudeOilBuySignalsMarch12.jpg

as for oil, oil was clearly went from being in a bear trend into a bull trend when it broke above 45, and since they all dips should be viewed as a buying opportunity or for oil bears to GET THE PHUCK OUT! I Hope you did. look at the posted chart below, the down trend is clearly broken, and when I said a day ago that unless oil can fall below 42 to confirm breaking to the downside it didnt, it held up perfectly and thus the massive 4-5 dollar move upward.

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/3-12cv/3GoldBullionAndCrudeOilBuySignalsMarch12.jpg

and finally the USO oil fund which again I do not trade because of the dam 30% exchange rate, but also clearly has bounced off the trendline and has retested the trendline after it broke the downtrend line.


http://goldseek.com/news/2009/3-12cv/4GoldBullionAndCrudeOilBuySignalsMarch12.jpg

so we could be in some exciting time breakout profits here folks. the hui index I think still need to close above 290, if there are any dips between hui and oil for the next little while I would view that has the last test of the lows/supports before taking flight

good luck

:)

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I bought Suncor today at $31.31. Still haven't got rid of Husky.


.

nice buy,,, up almost $2 ........ :thumbsup:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

it's this sunday......i bought HOU.... should i hold it over the weekend and hope they cut and i goes up or just sell today.... ?

[SilverRex]

^

i say hold unless oil breaks 46.60 and sustain below, since that is the trendline breakout (now support) oil as the upside towards 52

or sell if oil suddenly puts in a 3+ dollars because at currently heights, every sharp rise will follow a good drop

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

^

no april, but we are approaching april to expire in a week or so, if you want to be safe I guess you can use 52 on may as well, that still puts you a few dollars up where 48.36 current leves

[SilverRex]

look at gold after breaking the downward trendline at the arrow below, and now it suddenly fell back to a support trendline right at the area marked by my circle I Decided to double up on HGU

while anything can happen, but im feeling good and hope hui can close above 290 to give me the push for a run up

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold7.jpg

and oil

look ma, another trendline break above 47, and look how it came back tested it and bouced right back up, I dont trade oil at the moment but i would have got in when it dip to 46.70

but is short term upside limited to the upper channel at around 48-49? potentially yes that is why I would take my profit if it moves 2-3 dollars, not much support below 47 which makes it kinda of scary that it can suddenly fall back to 45

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil15.jpg

[civic_rida]

When would you buy hod?

[SilverRex]

shorting oil is alot of difficult now because you have alot of long term investor jumping in since oil break 45 (big signal)

unless your looking at quick trades I say around 50-52 area oil, not sure where HOD will be, the trend is changing and looking at HOD which went as high as 47 and coming down hard to 24, it's given up like 50%

ill rather wait for buy signals on HOU

[civic_rida]

So the days of 47 dollar hod are over?

[SilverRex]

^

well you have to realize oil has bottomed but it is only a bottom and may not be 'THE' bottom.

shor term wise, I have to give the market to the bulls, if your thinking to short and hold and hope oil would hit 30 or below, be prepare to stomach some hard swings because the cap has just lifited from 30-40 to 40-50 and worse we could see 6x soon too if the 100 EMA at 52 doesnt hold the line

[Dinan]

^^^thanks for the charts and your input......:thumbsup:

[KleanCord]

Note that oil keeps setting higher lows. Investors are starting to believe in it.

It's less hard to go long on oil than it is short at these prices.

This weekend may offer one more buying opportunity/shorting due to OPEC. But we are no longer talking of $20 oil, and even $30 is starting to seem out of the question at this point.

Anyone taking a look at the 20 day EMA?

Yesterday and today are constantly having retractions to the MA only to bounce back each time. It is looking like another trending day. The big test will be coming up in a retraction from now and we will see if it holds. If it does today turns into another trend day.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Note that oil keeps setting higher lows. Investors are starting to believe in it.

It's less hard to go long on oil than it is short at these prices.

This weekend may offer one more buying opportunity/shorting due to OPEC. But we are no longer talking of $20 oil, and even $30 is starting to seem out of the question at this point.

Anyone taking a look at the 20 day EMA?

Yesterday and today are constantly having retractions to the MA only to bounce back each time. It is looking like another trending day. The big test will be coming up in a retraction from now and we will see if it holds. If it does today turns into another trend day.

out the window for now.

[max_boost]

Time to gamble. Buy order set for $24 HOD first.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Time to gamble. Buy order set for $24 HOD first.

wow, you still set on HOD eh.... you got some BALLS, hehehe... you dont' think OPEC will cut???

[civic_rida]

He could be smart and set his stops very close just incase it doesnt work out for him.

[SilverRex]

this is it, HUI about to challenge 290 area. please close above this level :nut:

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex
this is it, HUI about to challenge 290 area. please close above this level :nut:

Damn missed out on my 11.50 buy order of HGU this morning put it in just as soon as it crossed over haha.
Still holding a position at 12.15 though so hopefully that holds well.

[KleanCord]

Does anyone think this $45 mark is actually a good thing for the oil bulls.

If oil finished $49 or around there, perhaps that would get them thinking possibly forgoing cutting back on Sunday.

It drops to $45 and you see that if you decide not to cut it will drop further.

They may be oil billionaires but they are still human and you would have to think the psychological factors are going to play a big part of what they do.

[max_boost]

HGU looking good. 20% in 3 days! Awesome.

As for oil, who the fuck knows. If you want in, get ready to gamble. lol

[Z_Fan]

I sold my HGU the other day for a little profit, which I put in to HOU and sold also for a good profit.

Bought back in to HGU this morning. Not sure about it though, will set a fairly tight stop. Also picked up some TLM. Tight stop on that too.

I hate buying regular stocks after a few days of rallies.

[Z_Fan]

OMFG RBC Action Direct is not taking orders online ... order status and order entry both down? WTF!

That's really annoying.

[Dinan]

looks like i'm holding my HOU over the weekend, hope oil jumps on monday :)

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
OMFG RBC Action Direct is not taking orders online ... order status and order entry both down? WTF!

That's really annoying.

Yep and I can't get through on the phone line! WTF!

Alright, so with my morning order on HOD, my cost on HOD is now down to $30. Oh shit. Come Monday I am either going to be break even or down 25% total.

I hope Gold continues its momentum, that can help offset HOD losses. :rofl:

Have a great weekend everyone!

[Canmorite]

Just got back from the financial forum at the Telus convention center. Lots of real estate investment companies willing to take your money, and a few brokerage firms but other then that there wasn't a lot.

Did meet Larry Berman off BNN though :rofl:

[gogglespaesano]

Man that was just a disaster....CIBC Investors Edge was down...I logged into my Waterhouse account...same thing...and by the looks of the prev. post Royal was down too...they did post a blurb on CIBC the 'issue' was effecting most brokerages today...started around 1p or so... :(

oh well..... couldnt sell to jump in and grab some HGU... well anyways...may be it worked out cause the stock I was trying to unload went up about /.35 more then my sell order :P

cheers
GP



Originally posted by max_boost


Yep and I can't get through on the phone line! WTF!

Alright, so with my morning order on HOD, my cost on HOD is now down to $30. Oh shit. Come Monday I am either going to be break even or down 25% total.

I hope Gold continues its momentum, that can help offset HOD losses. :rofl:

Have a great weekend everyone!

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Just got back from the financial forum at the Telus convention center. Lots of real estate investment companies willing to take your money, and a few brokerage firms but other then that there wasn't a lot.

Did meet Larry Berman off BNN though :rofl:

lol Larry Berman :rofl:


Originally posted by gogglespaesano
Man that was just a disaster....CIBC Investors Edge was down...I logged into my Waterhouse account...same thing...and by the looks of the prev. post Royal was down too...they did post a blurb on CIBC the 'issue' was effecting most brokerages today...started around 1p or so... :(

oh well..... couldnt sell to jump in and grab some HGU... well anyways...may be it worked out cause the stock I was trying to unload went up about /.35 more then my sell order :P

cheers
GP




So I'm assuming any orders placed after the outage didn't go through right? Initially I didn't realize there was a problem. I put a marker order in for AGU and it didn't show up so I thought I might have hit canceled instead of submit since I was in a hurry :nut: so I put it through again and it still didn't show up. I then logged out and back in and then saw the message.
:banghead:

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by max_boost


lol Larry Berman :rofl:


Was rocking quite a few diamond rings and bracelets haha. I think he's doing ok...

[gogglespaesano]

max_boost

turns out CIBC did end up processing my order at the price I entered in my order. Last night it did not show me anything for order status still, but this morning it shows the transactions from yesterday.

cheers
GP

[max_boost]

Well, they decided to not cut. What will this mean? I don't know. :rofl:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7944472.stm

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by max_boost
Well, they decided to not cut. What will this mean? I don't know. :rofl:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7944472.stm

$40 HOD?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


$40 HOD?

I hope so! Going to buy a new car if that happens. :rofl:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by max_boost


I hope so! Going to buy a new car if that happens. :rofl:

Well if I make $4 a share off HOD, im going to Vegas in April :bigpimp:

[Dinan]

so how low will oil go now?? or will it?

[Proyecto2000]

I have no clue how low price will go, but I hope it drops well into the $30's

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
I have no clue how low price will go, but I hope it drops well into the $30's

so with this news, it SHOULD drop?? or maybe cause they didnt cut the demand is up and it will go up now??? is it me or it could go either way still ???

[RX_EVOLV]

imo it might touch $40 again but doubt it will go back into the 30s. IMO oil will still slowly inches upward to > $50 eventually... hope it drops first though, I placed my wager with HOD on Fri anticipating this no-cut!! hope we are right that oil will drop on Mon
:thumbsup: :drama:

[Canmorite]

OPEC leaves production unchanged.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2jzt5LCSBcA&refer=home

Crude down $1.85 from close.

[max_boost]

Looks like a good gamble for everyone who bought HOD on Friday. Oil down -$2.00 right now. All the futures are down too. Tomorrow could possibly be a brutal day on the markets. I'm holding too many shares of HOD, going to have to decide what I'm going to do. :nut:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[RX_EVOLV]

i can decide if I want to sell mon or actually pick up some more

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Looks like a good gamble for everyone who bought HOD on Friday. Oil down -$2.00 right now. All the futures are down too. Tomorrow could possibly be a brutal day on the markets. I'm holding too many shares of HOD, going to have to decide what I'm going to do. :nut:
just to remind everyone the all important (april oil) price support is at 43.28, look for this area to hold. I mean, I have to repeat, if oil is indeed ready for a huge breakout then the 43 area will provide alot of buying.

of course it would completely throw everyone off if it breaks below and sustain below that level.

[SilverRex]

^

well i got pretty close, oil supported very strong at 43.67, now its back to almost 45.

I would say look for 43-44 area to hold and get out hack im tempted to play HOU around this number.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil16.jpg


and for gold, while it came very close to closing above 290 (287 instead) gold may want to retest lower and you can see in the chart below while it was important for bulls that it broke the downtrend line in the circle area we currently fighting the 200 day moving average (red line) if failed, we could easily dip back to 905-915 area but a break above is not with out its challenge as the 935 area is a tough cookie a retracement resistance that needs to be overcomed before we can see gold reach higher.

however gold stock charts looks good with two weekly hammers. I will continue to hold gold share unless gold breaks below 890

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold8.jpg

[Dinan]

^^^ i still got my HOU, so lets go oil



:dunno:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
the inventory report is on wed right?

yeah every wednesday.....

damn, oil down $2......

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by SilverRex
[B]^

well i got pretty close, oil supported very strong at 43.67, now its back to almost 45.

I would say look for 43-44 area to hold and get out


:banghead:

[KleanCord]

Well markets are up and it's Monday.

Every time we have had a rally in the past it has been called the bottom, this one no one is putting their neck out there and calling it. Instead we are being told to trade into it. I think all signs are pointing to March 9th being the bottom.

Is it all up from here? Of course not. We will have hiccups along the way as Q1 results pour out, Citigroup posts huge losses, Oil spikes in prices thus stalling recovery, European housing market crash, and blah blah blah. But I am thinking the lowest we will have seen the DOW in our lifetimes was at 6600.

1) Rally came on largely bad news.
2) MACD and % of high lows, Moving averages, VIX lowering, still no overbought on RSI or Stochastics and so on are all technically pointing to buys.
3) We are still being told to sell into this.
4) It is at the magic 16 month mark that historically has been a turnaround phase, and 6 months of bottoming.
5) There is a thing called a stimulus coming through the pipework. You may have heard of it.
5a) Commodities have all bottomed or forming, with the exception of Nat Gas. Copper in particular which is a nice leading indicator of the economy is already bottomed, broken resistance and formed support around $165. Probably in part to Chinas stimulus but either way price is the only important factor at this stage.

We were so far away from the moving average I could not even find a time that compared. I am sure there has to be specific moments but even in market bottoms of 74 and 82 I could not find one.

Other big news, especially to us in Calgary. OPEC announced ZERO cuts. The result? A measly drop, which traders wouldn't even lose sleep over, after all $2 price swings in oil come on days when there is no news. That OPEC announcement is about the worst you can expect unless Inventory reports have some sort of large unestimated increase. Seasonality is positive for oil until May, Gas will continue to increase in price, the charts look good, no more contango, and market destruction all make shorting oil right now a very short term trade.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Well markets are up and it's Monday.

I want to personally thank max_boost for shorting the TSX index on Thursday.

[SilverRex]

gold share regain all of its loss this morning, so far out performing gold despite gold is still down.

all I know is when gold share performs better than gold it self, then it is only a matter of time when gold turns around.

however it could also be the rally in the market, making gold share way undervalued at currently levels.

either way im kewl, the double hammer on the weekly chart makes me happy on hui which translate to a very strong support in the 10-11 area for HGU.

Anything can always happen and there will always be downside risk, so one must take it one day at a time. Right now gold stock looks good.

bought another position in HGU at 11.50, and HOU at 5.40

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


:banghead:

Have all of you guys holding HOD been ignoring SilverRex this past week?

[civic_rida]

I think hod just looked very tempting to many. The potential to make huge money.

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by sputnik


Have all of you guys holding HOD been ignoring SilverRex this past week?

I have been holding HOD since March 2 and waiting to GTFO since March 3 :rofl:

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


I have been holding HOD since March 2 and waiting to GTFO since March 3 :rofl:

Sometimes "getting out" means taking a smaller loss now instead of a much bigger loss later on.

Accept the fact that you may not make a profit on this trade and regain your losses with other trades instead.

[liquid1010]

April ABX calls are acting very strange. Somehow between Thursday and Today, the price of Barrick has gone up $1, but the call option values at close to the money calls have dropped. Obviously the volatility numbers have changed slightly..... but it's odd behaviour nonethelesss

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by liquid1010
April ABX calls are acting very strange. Somehow between Thursday and Today, the price of Barrick has gone up $1, but the call option values at close to the money calls have dropped. Obviously the volatility numbers have changed slightly..... but it's odd behaviour nonethelesss

Note that seasonality wise Gold goes down slightly between now and June. Also Gold miners underperform gold during this period, meaning they go down more.

What are the options like in June?

[bigbadboss101]

Oil prices flipped quickly just now.

[sputnik]

Looks like oil is headed to well over $47 today.

[Dinan]

so when is a good time to get out of HOU and wait for another fall??? 48oil?

[DJ_NAV]

Wow! GS hit 100.... and AIG up huge today(70%).

[max_boost]

Interesting day. Well, got stopped out of HXD, so much for shorting the markets. :rofl:

Sold the chunk of HOD I bought at $24.50 on Friday at $27.50. Might have to resort to making short flips than holding out for the home run shot lol

So my buy order on AGU did get filled on Friday so I'm up a small 3% on that lol

Anyway, so much optimism in the market. C/BAC going nuts today haha

I always ask, is this the real deal or just setting everyone up to get crushed again? :rofl:

[max_boost]

Let's see if it gets there, buy order for HOD at $24.50 again hahaha