Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


Sure it will, just don"t know when is all :D

lol, yeah, one day, hope sooner then later.. :P heheheh....did you get out of SU or you still go some too... ??

[eljefe]

bought it at 29.75 - 29.10 and 28.66 might buy some more if it goes into the 26-27 range but I am not convinced that it will.

[Dinan]

thats not bad,,, atleast your not as bad as me lol,,, your all under 30,, hehehe... i'll see if it goes down another 1 or soo i'll sell my HSE and average down on my SU....

[sputnik]

Oil appears to be recovering from its earlier beating this morning.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan
thats not bad,,, atleast your not as bad as me lol,,, your all under 30,, hehehe... i'll see if it goes down another 1 or soo i'll sell my HSE and average down on my SU....

Well don't feel to bad, I had shares back in August at $58 :eek: and more recently at $19.50 ! Coulda woulda shoulda

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


Well don't feel to bad, I had shares back in August at $58 :eek: and more recently at $19.50 ! Coulda woulda shoulda

oh i see.. wow,,, 58.... so you sold those off? lets hope it doesn't fall lot more.... :drama:

[max_boost]

When a firm, say UBS, raises their target on a stock, that bodes well for it obviously right?

UBS raised its target on Teck to $9. Teck is up 10% for the day and trading at $7.50. I got in at $7, lucky me. What happens when it does hit $9? :dunno:

Also, still holding my HOU at $7. Oil is too strong these days.

UUU and C holding steady still. Tempted to lock in my gains but would love to see those two just pop and take off hehe

I'm being patient with HSE and XEG. They aren't moving so nothing to do there.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


oh i see.. wow,,, 58.... so you sold those off? lets hope it doesn't fall lot more.... :drama:

Up 4 cents on my lowest position woo hoo lol

[SilverRex]

hui index is forming another upward flag pattern a breakout could be around the corner

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by max_boost
When a firm, say UBS, raises their target on a stock, that bodes well for it obviously right?

UBS raised its target on Teck to $9. Teck is up 10% for the day and trading at $7.50. I got in at $7, lucky me. What happens when it does hit $9? :dunno:

Also, still holding my HOU at $7. Oil is too strong these days.

UUU and C holding steady still. Tempted to lock in my gains but would love to see those two just pop and take off hehe

I'm being patient with HSE and XEG. They aren't moving so nothing to do there.

HSE raised to buy by UBS.

Take it for what it's worth, which is usually nothing.

But yes they are projecting $9. It can go higher, so it all depends on what the market wants.

[max_boost]

Bye Bye Citigroup, got stopped out. :facepalm:

[civicrider]

what do you mean they got stopped out?

[max_boost]

I meant I got stopped out. Same thing with HOU! Got a buy order for $7 HOU again though. Come on! :nut: :dunno:

[Z_Fan]

Must have set a tight stop on a gain on HOU though. So you are OK there, right.

[KleanCord]

it's funny watching the bears and bulls battle it out. 800 SP500 seems to not want to give, third try, going for a 4th. I wonder how this works because the SP500 is made up of stocks that are tradeable. So people just start buying certain stocks when it reaches that level?

[civicrider]

yeah im going to wait till then end of the week and i might buy citi and FNM

[max_boost]

I am taking profits wherever I can.

Also got stopped out of UUU but that one was nice though. Up 30% :D

Forgot to set one for TCK.B so just watching it right now.

I do have a lowball bid on for HFU. Hoping the market tanks and then a rebound tomorrow? Just guessing....as usual. lol

[KleanCord]

Nothing more than profit taking. Hard part is not to sell. We were due for a correction and when that comes I would bet we retract 30%. Then we shoot up from there.

I would have rathered more distance from 800 before the correction was to take place, but I guess it was bound to happen.

7% up in one day on lower volumes is nothing more than panic buying.

[hattonlynch]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok

oil is finding strong support at 52.50, and with this it has the potential short term upside of close to 55, however for risk/reward I still would like oil to find its way back to at least 50 or into the 47s before making a longer term play.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil25.jpg

as for gold

im surprised at how weak the 930 area held, but last resort is the 50 day and retracement at around 913-915 which seems to be holding. and looking at the chart you see gold first broke out of a ascending wedge which resulted in its decline, I Didnt expect 945 to hold that strong anyways. but overestimated the support but its looking better now as gold is in its own bullish descending wedge or short term descending broadening wedge which I anticipate a breakout to the upside.

also gold stock (hui) rebounded yesterday despite gold is lower overall, it is currently out performing gold. its difficult to guess what gold wants to do in the short term but ive read when gold shares out perform gold, gold follows in due time . gold is not yet extreme bullish unless it can sustain above 961 and yet the triple hammer off 890 is huge as well? so perhaps more side way action? 900-960? season this is gold season, the longer gold stays above 890 the better. KEy is to get to sept/oct when potentially an explosive up leg follows
if anyone follows Henry Dent, the crash expert, he calls for accumalation in gold and energy sector and sell some time between mid 09 to early 2010, he expects the market will rally between april-sept 09 but sell off will begin and inflation will hit end of the year. Its a dream but he says inflation will take oil back to its peak if not higher.

another person called the deflation uppose to linger longer into 2010-11 but will turn into inflation if the US decided to buy up treasuries (which it did)


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold20.jpg
I wouldn't listen to anything Dent says....he called dow at 30,000

[hattonlynch]

damn, feels nice that my whole portfolio is in the green after the beating I took in 08.

got teck cominco at 4, now at 7
got yamana gold at 7.9, now at 11.4
got galleon energy at 3.5, now at 3.8

only thing that is holding me back is my position in arc energy when i thought it was a steal at 19.00.

i wish i had the stomach for HOU and HOD.....but damn its basiaclly the same thing as hitting up a casino

is there any other oil etfs that aren't as leveraged?

[max_boost]

USO isn't leveraged but you have to convert to US dollars. As oil goes up, USO goes up but that also means the Canadian dollar goes up so you'll lose on the exchange.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by hattonlynch

I wouldn't listen to anything Dent says....he called dow at 30,000

I was going to mention that.

Dent is notoriously wrong and Prechter (who is also referred to in the other thread) is there with him.

Elliot waves are nice in hindsight, but the biggest problem with them is even a so called elliot wave expert such as Prechter can get it right but has no idea of a time frame.

That said I still think around 2015 we are in for another crash a la 1980s. But our method of getting there is probably much different from how any of these doom sayers predict.

[hattonlynch]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I was going to mention that.

Dent is notoriously wrong and Prechter (who is also referred to in the other thread) is there with him.

Elliot waves are nice in hindsight, but the biggest problem with them is even a so called elliot wave expert such as Prechter can get it right but has no idea of a time frame.

That said I still think around 2015 we are in for another crash a la 1980s. But our method of getting there is probably much different from how any of these doom sayers predict.
It's really hard to trust these forecasters because there is just way to many variables. However, one guy that consistently has a handle on the global economy and the markets is Marc Faber....

[blinkme_210]

Originally posted by hattonlynch

It's really hard to trust these forecasters because there is just way to many variables. However, one guy that consistently has a handle on the global economy and the markets is Marc Faber....

No economist or analyst can correctly forecast anything! You're better off just flipping a coin and going with that. That's essentially what the economists are doing when they give these "informed" forecasts to the media.

You can't forecast the economy because today's economy is driven by human behavior which is constantly changing by the hour/day. Hell, there are mathematicians who have written books about how it is impossible to predict the ups & downs of an economy because of human behavior.

[max_boost]

There are no guarantees......

[SilverRex]

ok

oil not much changes so refer to yesterdays charts upper range target 55.5 and lower range target 48-49.

but for gold

so gold is playing out after breaking the down trendline, and also formed a double bottom at around 915 which is big

look for gold to make another push at 961, first it needs to take out 945 but in doing soon, there is short term down side risk to test 930 again but momentum is gearing up

also for gold bugs look at my post at the long term thread

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold21.jpg

[davidI]

I got rid of HOD yesterday at a slight loss. I just don't get it...oil inventories are up, demand is down, and the US economy contracted more than forecast.

I guess traders have got their appetite for risk back!!! If oil gets close to $55 I'll likely jump back in because the fundamentals are just not there to support that price! Then again, fundamentals haven't seemed to matter for the last few years!

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


long term, as in a month :D lol.... but yeah,,, so it doesn't look like it will be getting into the 30's huh ??? :(

Maybe today ....

Up $1.11 to 29.53

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


Maybe today ....

Up $1.11 to 29.53

yeah i was tempted to sell but i didn't, now it dropped to 29.05.. you sell anyting....

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


yeah i was tempted to sell but i didn't, now it dropped to 29.05.. you sell anyting....

Nope, I still see it back over 30 before to to long. I am going to hold

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


Nope, I still see it back over 30 before to to long. I am going to hold

HOPE your right,,, but you bought in a good price.. average about 29, right?? lets see what happens, hope oil doesn't go down, if it does then we fucked.. hehehe,, lets go OIL :)

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


HOPE your right,,, but you bought in a good price.. average about 29, right?? lets see what happens, hope oil doesn't go down, if it does then we fucked.. hehehe,, lets go OIL :)

I think my C/A is around 29.10

Edit** Tuesday most financial companies upped their target range to the higher 30's for SU

[eljefe]

I just missed that dip down into the high 28's I was thinking to grab some more but I was typing that last post!

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Dinan


HOPE your right,,, but you bought in a good price.. average about 29, right?? lets see what happens, hope oil doesn't go down, if it does then we fucked.. hehehe,, lets go OIL :)

Dinan,

Suncor is the acquirer, that means there is always downside pressure. When you have that people come out and short the stock, and people who sell because of unknowns or just the fact they realize it will be dead money for the short term.

Do yourself a favor and tell yourself you are either going to keep Suncor for 1 year.

Just like Husky it is not like Suncor is going to pack up shop anytime soon. Long term you can be assured you have stocks that can only go up. Who know what happens tomorrow.

[davidI]

Originally posted by davidI
I got rid of HOD yesterday at a slight loss. I just don't get it...oil inventories are up, demand is down, and the US economy contracted more than forecast.

I guess traders have got their appetite for risk back!!! If oil gets close to $55 I'll likely jump back in because the fundamentals are just not there to support that price! Then again, fundamentals haven't seemed to matter for the last few years!

Good thing I skidded it as oil is up past $54 today. Not sure where this strength is coming from.

[eljefe]

^^^ good advice, there is of course a good chance you can flip for a quick grand on the thousand shares you have - but long term you are in at a great price for when things turn around. Long term you have the potential for much much larger returns.

[Proyecto2000]

Im glad to see oil creeping near $55. Hopefully it remains high over break up so the rigs in Sask. can fire up and we can have work again :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe
I just missed that dip down into the high 28's I was thinking to grab some more but I was typing that last post!

lol... sorry, but lets hope i doesn't dip anymore,, but i think it will.... should have bought yesterday at 27

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


lol... sorry, but lets hope i doesn't dip anymore,, but i think it will.... should have bought yesterday at 27

ditto

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Dinan,

Suncor is the acquirer, that means there is always downside pressure. When you have that people come out and short the stock, and people who sell because of unknowns or just the fact they realize it will be dead money for the short term.

Do yourself a favor and tell yourself you are either going to keep Suncor for 1 year.

Just like Husky it is not like Suncor is going to pack up shop anytime soon. Long term you can be assured you have stocks that can only go up. Who know what happens tomorrow.

is that what your saying to yourself... :D

but yeah, i'm not worried, i just wanted to flip them,, i made enought for my bike, but now that i put most of the cash in SU i'm down lol... atleast for now...

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


is that what your saying to yourself... :D

but yeah, i'm not worried, i just wanted to flip them,, i made enought for my bike, but now that i put most of the cash in SU i'm down lol... atleast for now...

If your goal was the bike, then let it run up to 30 and change, sell and get the bike.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


If your goal was the bike, then let it run up to 30 and change, sell and get the bike.

yeah, ill see how things go, i still got time.... :)

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


yeah, ill see how things go, i still got time.... :)

April 23rd will be a big date- they release their quarterly earnings. Jan 20th they released their 4th quarter earnings and showed a 250 million dollar loss. The shares nosedived hard and fast before recovering weeks later.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


April 23rd will be a big date- they release their quarterly earnings. Jan 20th they released their 4th quarter earnings and showed a 250 million dollar loss. The shares nosedived hard and fast before recovering weeks later.

well thats like a month from now, so lets hope it goes up by then, or they make a profit this time :)


back to 29.50 :D:D

[ExtraSlow]

I'm on the short term SU train now too. In at $28.75, Looking to get out around $30.20 or so.

[SilverRex]

as a silver bull myself check this out

silver ready to break higher once it takes out the final 3 fan line wave

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver2.jpg

[KleanCord]

Comment about Husky:

Although this might be nothing new I find it interesting to compare the chart to Statoil. Both have small institutional ownership, both offer 4% yeilds, and trade relatively low P/E.

Now the thing I find funny is the charts are very similar all the way up until last month. Statoils chart compares to most other oil companies. Husky is completely flat meanwhile everyone else is running up.

My gut tells me it is a simple matter of momentum and range bound acting to keep the price completely flat. I am sure this thing has to have an upward movement and when it does it should be more explosive because of the length of time it spent in consolidation.

In the meantime this thing needs to close a day above $28, and then it should be very easy to hit $31.60.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Comment about Husky:

Although this might be nothing new I find it interesting to compare the chart to Statoil. Both have small institutional ownership, both offer 4% yeilds, and trade relatively low P/E.

Now the thing I find funny is the charts are very similar all the way up until last month. Statoils chart compares to most other oil companies. Husky is completely flat meanwhile everyone else is running up.

My gut tells me it is a simple matter of momentum and range bound acting to keep the price completely flat. I am sure this thing has to have an upward movement and when it does it should be more explosive because of the length of time it spent in consolidation.

In the meantime this thing needs to close a day above $28, and then it should be very easy to hit $31.60.

yeah and it's been getting alot more volume in the past week or soo then ever,,, i remember when it had about 800k a day , now it's almost over 2mill a day... for some reason i thought it close above 28... hmmmm... but it goes in the upper 28's few times aweek .....

[max_boost]

Originally posted by davidI
I got rid of HOD yesterday at a slight loss. I just don't get it...oil inventories are up, demand is down, and the US economy contracted more than forecast.

I guess traders have got their appetite for risk back!!! If oil gets close to $55 I'll likely jump back in because the fundamentals are just not there to support that price! Then again, fundamentals haven't seemed to matter for the last few years!

Yeah it's definitely not the easiest thing to play. Collectively we've been burned alive by HOU/HOD since December trying to predict it. :nut: :rofl:

Anyway I think oil is going to go up and that's just an imo because it IS going up. You can't fight the trend, even if stats say otherwise. Did that even make sense?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


yeah and it's been getting alot more volume in the past week or soo then ever,,, i remember when it had about 800k a day , now it's almost over 2mill a day... for some reason i thought it close above 28... hmmmm... but it goes in the upper 28's few times aweek .....

You got your 30 !

[max_boost]

NT anyone? :bigpimp:

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost
NT anyone? :bigpimp:

No thanks, but I am thinking to take a quick trip onto the HOD train, and quickly get off at the next stop.....

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


You got your 30 !

yeah i had a sell for 30.19 to be even but i couldn't wait, cuz i got burned befor with SU so i sold with a small loss... i just sold my cheapest shares at 30.18....... i'll wait for it go down or i'll buy something else.....i hope it goes up,,, but i see it's down to 29.80 now again :( i guess sometimes you need to lose a bit to make some hehehehe....


oh snap it's back up to 29.95 ... lol.... either way i'm happy .... im going to wait now and see....

[Jlude]

Anybody read the resignation letter from the AIG employee?

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/original/article_212217900.shtml

[max_boost]

Where's the oil chart? What's the next resistance point?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ok

oil is finding strong support at 52.50, and with this it has the potential short term upside of close to 55, however for risk/reward I still would like oil to find its way back to at least 50 or into the 47s before making a longer term play.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil25.jpg

[TheCheff]

Originally posted by Jlude
Anybody read the resignation letter from the AIG employee?

http://www.postchronicle.com/news/original/article_212217900.shtml

That's a very interesting letter of resignation. I wonder who behind all of the credit default swaps at AIG

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


No thanks, but I am thinking to take a quick trip onto the HOD train, and quickly get off at the next stop.....

did you get on it ??? :D

[nice since 86]

Any news with opti?

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost


Yeah it's definitely not the easiest thing to play. Collectively we've been burned alive by HOU/HOD since December trying to predict it. :nut: :rofl:

Anyway I think oil is going to go up and that's just an imo because it IS going up. You can't fight the trend, even if stats say otherwise. Did that even make sense?

Yea, I'm with you there. I still think oil will go down to the low 40's again at some point this year but when the collective group wants to rally for the sake of rallying you can't fight it. Why oil is up $5 over a week that inventories are up 3 mm bbls I will never be able to explain!

[davidI]

Originally posted by nice since 86
Any news with opti?

No, it's just assumed someone is going to take a run at them. I wouldn't be surprised if they put themselves up for sale. I don't like the fundamentals on them much (huge cash flow / debt issues) but the trend sure has been nice the last couple weeks.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by davidI


Yea, I'm with you there. I still think oil will go down to the low 40's again at some point this year but when the collective group wants to rally for the sake of rallying you can't fight it. Why oil is up $5 over a week that inventories are up 3 mm bbls I will never be able to explain!

So what makes you sure that oil will hit $40 this year?

Just a hunch?

Remember that the inventory number is based on current figures and the futures price is the estimated price for next month spot day prices.

You can't always correlate inventory reports and futures prices.

If the market sees 3 million barrels in storage but think the economy will eat up 6 million next month then the futures price goes up, but not as much as it would if there were 2 million barrels in storage.

[davidI]

What makes you sure that oil won't hit $40 this year?

Also, I don't think it will get down to $40, just low $40's...$43-45ish maybe.

There are thousands of people who trade oil for a living and can't predict the price so I certainly won't claim to be able to. All I'm saying is that in my mind, this bear market rally is not sustainable or really justified. What's supporting this rally? I'm just taking my short-term profits and hoping to have a strong cash position if (when?) the market tumbles again.

http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1430452

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2009/03/26/technical-indicator-says-sell.aspx

http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1430914

Edit: I should have also mentioned that oil may stay resilient if the US$ really craps out, which is very possible!!

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


did you get on it ??? :D

I did, just playing with my ups on the week. I grabbed 300 shares at 19.19

I don't think oil is about to fall apart by any means- I just think it settles back a few dollars before marching onward and upward.

[KleanCord]

I am still sticking by my prediction of +$50 give or take a half buck or so. I just don't see it going below and not because I am wearing rose colored glasses.

Chart technicals show that it clearly broke $50 which now will act as a strong support. Copper did the same thing now more than a month earlier.

Both of these are considered to be leading not trailing indicators.

Seasonally oil is strong from here until June. The only question is if the fundamentals are worse in June than they currently are and I don't see that.

Oil broke $50 on 2 pieces of news:
1) OPEC will NOT cut production further
2) Oil inventories INCREASED higher than expected.

When anything rallies on such negative news it is sending you a strong signal. It had already been running up prior to that setting higher lows.

If you short it plan on having a very short time frame, you don't want to be stuck with HOD for weeks.

[sputnik]

EDIT - KleanKord beat me to it.

[davidI]

I don't think the news that pushed oil up past $50 really had anything to do with the supply side...or oil for that matter. It was more to do with Obama's announcement of the trillion $ for buying up toxic debt which:
1) Made the markets as a whole rally
2) Hit the US$, increasing the price of commodities.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by KleanCord
I am still sticking by my prediction of +$50 give or take a half buck or so. I just don't see it going below and not because I am wearing rose colored glasses.

Chart technicals show that it clearly broke $50 which now will act as a strong support. Copper did the same thing now more than a month earlier.

Both of these are considered to be leading not trailing indicators.

Seasonally oil is strong from here until June. The only question is if the fundamentals are worse in June than they currently are and I don't see that.

Oil broke $50 on 2 pieces of news:
1) OPEC will NOT cut production further
2) Oil inventories INCREASED higher than expected.

When anything rallies on such negative news it is sending you a strong signal. It had already been running up prior to that setting higher lows.

If you short it plan on having a very short time frame, you don't want to be stuck with HOD for weeks.

As I said it won't hesitate long on its march upward, but it will take a break- I've bought and sold HOD and HOU dozens of times in the last 4 months, even dozens of times the same day. It just takes a couple dollars either way to make a few bucks. Also never ever held HOD or HOU more than a day or two...maybe three in a pinch :D

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Question for SilverRex

so did we hit the bottom already??
Or is this one of those rallys where the DOW hits over 8k and the TSX over 9, then a big crash

or is this it??

Both indexes have been positive for pretty much 2 weeks straight

well just applying the basic TA, the resistance level's 50% retracement from the 9088 peak to 6469 is at 7779 and it has got pass this.

last stand is 8087 I believe. This is also the down trend channel, if price was to close above this 3 days in a row then it has legs to shoot as far as 9300-9500 200 day moving average.

however given the recent surge I say it will pause around 8000-8100 for sure, even if it does break it will have most likely get rejected back down to the 7779 era making the 8000 level a good place to short. If this rally is fake, then shorting at 8000 for a run back to 6000 or lower would be very nice

also to note the previous two bottoms 7773 and 7449 both rallied 26% and 22% repsectively, and now from the 6469 bottom we have put in 22% also. I believe short term we are about to peak out soon, even if it does get to 8087, that puts in 25%. Seems right to me that it will turn down right around 8000s

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

let see

friday

oil not much change yet again, still looking for oil to dip back to 48-50 area before it becomes a good buy at these levels.

as for gold

someone or somethings just doesnt want gold to go up, at least perhaps not now. as I mention on the long term thread for the next few weeks. Gold still be consolidating side ways. I strongly believe our limited down side risk is at 880 but given today's action let see. I would like 920 to hold as there is a few trendline intersecting it, and breaking below the previous double bottom around this area is not good for bulls. but as you can see we could still see gold continue to form the descending wedge, with the 50 day moving average at around 915-916 that makes the area continues to be the place to go long

I Will say range is 910-960, if gold can finally break the top trendline shown on the chart here, that would be the trigger

i will be a happy man if gold can close above 930, but given how many support is around the 910-916 area, personally I believe this are is strong

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold22.jpg

[davidI]

Oil slips below $54
Article Comments (2) PABLO GORONDI

The Associated Press

March 27, 2009 at 7:21 AM EDT

Oil prices fell below $54 (U.S.) a barrel Friday, after this week hitting a high for the year, on concerns about the sustainability of recent gains and lingering doubts about the recovery of the global economy and oil demand.

Benchmark crude for May delivery fell 82 cents to $53.52 a barrel by midday in European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, Brent prices fell 70 cents to $52.76 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil prices hit a new high for the year Thursday as investors wagered there would be a new run on crude supplies. The contract rose $1.57 to settle at $54.34 a barrel.

But those gains have left room for declines amid a volatile outlook, said Victor Shum, an energy analyst at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

“Do expect a bumpy ride in the near term. There could be some selling to take profits,” Mr. Shum said.

He attributed crude's recent gains to “spillover from the equities market with no change in fundamentals.”

Energy prices have been surging despite reports that continue to show the U.S. economy is shrinking and oil inventories are bloated with surplus crude.

Crude in storage last week rose 3.3 million barrels to 356.6 million barrels, according the Energy Information Administration announced Wednesday. The increase was much higher than expected.

Investors, however, have bid up prices on the expectation of a future shortage of oil, analysts including Stephen Schork have said. Mr. Schork, in his daily oil report, called the gains “an aberration” given the state of global demand.

The U.S. economy, the world's biggest oil consumer, shrank at a 6.3 per cent pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, government data showed Thursday. And in Japan, exports fell by nearly half in February from a year earlier — a record drop.

Oil prices have mostly gotten support from the advance in global stock markets this month. In New York Thursday, the Dow gained 2.3 per cent to reach its highest close in six weeks amid surprisingly good earnings from some major consumer brands. Asian markets closed mostly modestly higher Friday, while in Europe most indexes were in the red by 1 per cent or less in early trading.

“The Dollar Index has been consolidating all week and is not providing any more a sustained support to oil bulls so this leaves it to the stock markets,” said Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix in Switzerland. “They have been able to maintain a positive momentum so far this week but this leaves only one leg of support for an attempt at $55 per barrel.”

The strength in oil has also come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries has been trying for several months to squeeze off crude production in hopes of driving up prices. Members want to cut production by 4.2 million barrels per day.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery fell 2.97 cents to $1.5014 a gallon, while heating oil dipped 1.86 cents to $1.4627 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery fell 2.2 cents to $3.925 per 1,000 cubic feet.

[SilverRex]

watch out for hgu to open low then spike higher,

currently gold shares are way out performing gold meaning when gold dips gold share dips little but when gold moves alittle gold share rockets

and so far TA is holding up around 920 any surge higher will push hgu back to its previous peak if not higher I say next target peak at about or close to 16 bucks

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
watch out for hgu to open low then spike higher,

currently gold shares are way out performing gold meaning when gold dips gold share dips little but when gold moves alittle gold share rockets

and so far TA is holding up around 920 any surge higher will push hgu back to its previous peak if not higher I say next target peak at about or close to 16 bucks

so it's a good buy at 14.11 ???

[eljefe]

Originally posted by KleanCord
I am still sticking by my prediction of +$50 give or take a half buck or so. I just don't see it going below and not because I am wearing rose colored glasses.

Chart technicals show that it clearly broke $50 which now will act as a strong support. Copper did the same thing now more than a month earlier.

Both of these are considered to be leading not trailing indicators.

Seasonally oil is strong from here until June. The only question is if the fundamentals are worse in June than they currently are and I don't see that.

Oil broke $50 on 2 pieces of news:
1) OPEC will NOT cut production further
2) Oil inventories INCREASED higher than expected.

When anything rallies on such negative news it is sending you a strong signal. It had already been running up prior to that setting higher lows.

If you short it plan on having a very short time frame, you don't want to be stuck with HOD for weeks.

300 in at 19.19 300 out 20.65 - a quick in and out for $400

[eljefe]

AIG for a buck anyone?

Edit** or maybe 90 cents

[mac_82]

Originally posted by eljefe
AIG for a buck anyone?

I might pick some up if it goes into $0.50 or below.

[davidI]

Originally posted by eljefe


300 in at 19.19 300 out 20.65 - a quick in and out for $400

Nice. I wanted to do similar but didn't have enough settled cash in my account, dammit.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by davidI


Nice. I wanted to do similar but didn't have enough settled cash in my account, dammit.

What brokerage do you use?? TD lets you use your money immediately after you sell a security- not the settlement day.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


What brokerage do you use?? TD lets you use your money immediately after you sell a security- not the settlement day.

yeah so does BMO, and i get to go into Debit too lol,, but i got 3 days to cover it. hehehe...

nice traade with HOD :thumbsup:


anyone buying HOU....

[SJW]

I'm thinking about jumpin into HOU.


However I think oil will keep pulling back today toward 50 dolla.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SJW
I'm thinking about jumpin into HOU.


However I think oil will keep pulling back today toward 50 dolla.

yeah same here, i'll wait it out and see,, i always jump in to early,,, but i think i learned my leason :D

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by davidI
I don't think the news that pushed oil up past $50 really had anything to do with the supply side...or oil for that matter. It was more to do with Obama's announcement of the trillion $ for buying up toxic debt which:
1) Made the markets as a whole rally
2) Hit the US$, increasing the price of commodities.





PS Like I said before shorting oil is short term. I shorted it yesterday at $54.50. Just don't expect it to go back to $35.

EDIT: Someone help me with the embedding images on this forum.
http://img205.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=63543_untitled_122_460lo.JPG

[SJW]

I can see oil pulling back to 50 bucks today.


Was thinking about HNU but gas is tricky.

[davidI]

Originally posted by eljefe


What brokerage do you use?? TD lets you use your money immediately after you sell a security- not the settlement day.

InteractiveBrokers.ca - My recollection was that I couldn't buy securities until the money settled in my account but I should probably double check that now that I'm more actively trading again. Never used to be an issue as I rarely bought and sold in the same week...but now that I have more time on my hands I'm trading more actively.

[davidI]

Originally posted by KleanCord


PS Like I said before shorting oil is short term. I shorted it yesterday at $54.50. Just don't expect it to go back to $35.



Couldn't agree more. I wouldn't hold HOD or HOU for more than a few days.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by davidI


InteractiveBrokers.ca - My recollection was that I couldn't buy securities until the money settled in my account but I should probably double check that now that I'm more actively trading again. Never used to be an issue as I rarely bought and sold in the same week...but now that I have more time on my hands I'm trading more actively.

Quickest way to find out is to put an order in and see if it lets you buy it. I've not heard of a brokerage not letting you use the funds until after the settlement

[davidI]

Originally posted by eljefe


Quickest way to find out is to put an order in and see if it lets you buy it. I've not heard of a brokerage not letting you use the funds until after the settlement

Tried it. Won't let me buy until the cash has settled. I may need to look at using another brokerage.

[max_boost]

^

Definitely switch man. Waiting for it to settle before you can buy is ridiculous!

So I bought some NT at $0.33 purely as a gamble because I have no fucking clue what's going on with the company.

Also bought some HOU at $6.95.

Sure more depressing stats continue to come out for the US. Unemployment hitting 10% in a few more States, personal income is down, more layoffs = spending is low, confidence is low etc. I'm thinking the markets are sick of all the bad news and no longer even reacts to it anymore. Bottoming out? :dunno:

[SJW]

I see bottom.

What is everyone's thoughts on OPC? Opti Canada

Buyout soon?

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
^

Definitely switch man. Waiting for it to settle before you can buy is ridiculous!



Figured it out. My account is currently set-up as a cash account rather than a margin account which is why it won't let me trade until the cash settles. Shouldn't be too tough to switch it up to a margin account!

[max_boost]

^
???
:confused:

Mine's a cash account too. They won't let you transfer the cash out until settlement but they should still let you use the cash immediately to purchase another security after you make a sale.

Definitely switch.....

[997TT]

ya, that lame. having to wait until your cash settles before you can use it again.

oh wait, had i had that "feature" i probably wouldn't have lost as much....

Sign me up.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
^

Definitely switch man. Waiting for it to settle before you can buy is ridiculous!

So I bought some NT at $0.33 purely as a gamble because I have no fucking clue what's going on with the company.

Also bought some HOU at $6.95.

Sure more depressing stats continue to come out for the US. Unemployment hitting 10% in a few more States, personal income is down, more layoffs = spending is low, confidence is low etc. I'm thinking the markets are sick of all the bad news and no longer even reacts to it anymore. Bottoming out? :dunno:

congrad picking up HOU at 6.95, TA shows the multiple hammers on the 1 hour chart seems to stop the bleeding and oil should at least go higher before going lower short term wise.

for myself I still want to see 50 or any dip slightly below 50 to get my attention.

as for market as I posted yesterday night. the key area to watch is 8087 for DOW meaning either we test this area (there should be quite a rejection first) but right now DOW 7779 seems to hold so we will find out soon enough which way it will go next week, a close below this is going to bring out that bear that this is a dead cat bounce. so watch out. how the market go from here will soon reveal itself pending how it plays out. if 7779 area fails, it will be back to 7500 no time.

this bear market (down channel) isnt over unless it can sustain above 8087 at least 3 days in a row

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/sc2.jpg

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
^
???
:confused:

Mine's a cash account too. They won't let you transfer the cash out until settlement but they should still let you use the cash immediately to purchase another security after you make a sale.

Definitely switch.....

I like IB because the commissions are stupidly low. Unless you trade a lot of penny stocks that is.

Hmm, the more reading I'm doing the more it looks like this is the standard practice for cash accounts. I guess your brokers are the exception rather than the rule...




A cash account is the traditional brokerage account (sometimes called a "Type 1" account). If you have a cash account, you may make trades, but you have to pay in full for all purchases by the settlement date. In other words, you must add cash to pay for purchases if the account does not have sufficient cash already. In sleepier, less-connected times than the year 2002, most brokerage houses would accept an order to buy stock in a cash account, and after executing that order, they would allow you to bring the money to
settle the trade a few days later. In the age of internet trading, however, most brokers require good funds in the account before they will accept an order to buy. Just about anyone can open a cash account, although some brokerage houses may require a significant deposit (as much as $10,000) before they open the account.

A margin account is a type of brokerage account that allows you to take out loans against securities you own (sometimes called a "Type 2" account). Because the brokerage house is essentially granting you credit by giving you a margin account, you must pass their screening procedure to get one. Even if you don't plan to buy on margin, note that all short sales ("Type 5") have to occur in a margin account. Note that if you have a margin account, you will also have a cash account.

http://invest-faq.com/cbc/trade-broker-accts.html




Most cash online trading accounts allow you to purchase stocks, bonds, mutual funds and CD's. Your purchasing power is equal to the amount of your cash balance available in your account.

With this type of account, no funds are available on loan to purchase additional stocks or investments as in a Margin Account. A third option available is a Simulated Trading Account.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Once you sell a stock in this type of account, you usually have to wait for the trade to settle, or clear, before you can use the funds again to purchase anything additional. This generally takes 3 business days.

It is important to keep track of when your cash becomes available before placing any additional trades. Sometimes with this type of online trading account, you are able to place a buy order for additional stocks before the funds settle from the previous transaction.

This can happen because a broker is allowed, but not required, to accept a trade based on good faith. This is governed by a U.S. federal regulation called Regulation T.

If this happens in your account you must make sure the cash becomes available for the order you placed. If for some reason the cash is not available, the broker is generally allowed to sell any securities you have to cover the cost of the order you placed. This doesn't happen often, but it can happen.



http://www.online-stock-trading-guide.com/cash-account.html

[max_boost]

^
Honestly this is the first time I've heard of that. I've used RBC/TD/HSBC and they all allow me to make another purchase before the settlement date. Anyway yeah it's all about the low fees. Paying $0.03/share on a huge penny stock purchase is crazy. For RBC you either trade more than 30X in a quarter or have a household network >$100K to be eligible for $9.95 flat fee.

[SilverRex]

just to finish friday off with gold.

as I posted this morning, I Was looking for 920 gold to hold and so far it did but I overestimated its ability to climb and such gold shares has been moving sideways instead.

looking at pretty much the same chart, you can tell gold price is constantly being held up by the daily up channel trendline (green) but short term it is inside a downward descending wedge that usually is bullish.

with this chart I anticipate downside risk no lower than 910 with the potential to see the 930-945 area being tested again next week. what I want is to see the top down trendline gets broken which will be a pretty important signal that gold has got out of its consolidation funk. until then look for 950-955 to stop any surge short term prior to breaking out. You could say gold in the last few weeks has been forming a U shape bottom just like april - july in 2008 with a break on the upside. IF this plays true, the U shape bottom is much shorter span and we could see a breakout sooner april-may? unless the G20 meeting suddenly changes gold's outlook? or would it add fuel to the fire? we'll see, its exciting time for gold I rather die with excitment then with regret.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold23.jpg;)

[SilverRex]

^

add to my last post

I believe the 915 area is strong and should hold why?

because this area is the 50 day moving everage on the daily chart.
because this area is also the up channel that has been holding for months
because this area is around the low end of the descending wedge channel
because this area is the last I repeat the last retracement from the 880-960 peak run, moving below this will mean more sell pressure, so if the 70 dollar surge last week was a real deal, then this is bull's last stand if gold is to make haste with its run.

this area is also the down trendline that it broke on the 24th and now act as support.

look thats a freaking alot of support.

[max_boost]

Bought some HGU at $13.80 before close.

Still holding my NT and HOU.

Next week will be interesting. Have a great weekend everyone!