Official Short-term Investments Thread

[KleanCord]

We were well overbought anyways. For the last few days we have been due for some settling before making a push past 8000.

Note should be made about the volume. Or rather the lack of. The two days this week the market has gone down have been the two lowest days.

Compare that to our XMas rally and you see these are not even close to being the same thing.

Bearish index is still high, Cramer is still only 80% bullish, and there are bright spots that people have just started to ignore. I only think we have higher to go.

[Chandler_Racing]

What's everyones take on HNU.TO?

[SilverRex]

monday. This could be quite the week technically for all markets. As I wrote late last week, the close below the 50% retracement for DOW below 7779 would indicate that resistance being rejected thus market will flush down to 7500 quickly and so the pre-market so far is down 180 points

As someone spotted, yes the vol of the rally is a hint that this rally could be real and its simply just taking a breather, but as a technical reader, I would say the major bullish front requires dow to close and sustain above 8087 for a few days, even then there is plenty of resistance ahead around 9000 200 day moving average, plus another trendline some where in the 11000 I Believe. Therefore you just have to take this one rally, one rise at a time.

as for oil, finally after staying around 52-54 for so long, finally getting close to another buy signal. as shown on the chart belw, I would say its a good entry once oil dips to 49.5-50 would be a good buy.However if that trendline is broken I must say the 50 day moving average at around 46.50 will provide a very good support if 49.5 doesnt hold, all in all the rule of thumb right now is, anything below 50 is good entry. http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil26.jpg

And for gold, again I overestimated its rally once 915 area held, and there was the risk that it would test the bottom half of the wedge so now the test of this wedge comes into play as I write this. obvious if we want gold to be intact, I think its pretty important that gold needs to get back above 915 and fast, other wise this could bring us back to the 880 level like last time prior to the quick surge as it begs the question once again, is this bull in gold done and we are entering more side way consolidation? like 800-900? or is the 900-1000 range still in focus.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold24.jpg

[davidI]

Looks like my thoughts on HOD last week were correct, I was just 3 days ahead of the curve....dammit!

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090330.woilprices0330/GIStory/

[SilverRex]

ok im in HOU at 6.49 (around 50 oil)

I will double up with it gets to 46.50 (if it decides to get there) for a final position that means HOU at about 5.50 then sit back for 60 oil (hopefully)

[997TT]

In TCK.B at $7.12 this morning
Still holding HGU at $14.44 (my last re-buy as i've flipped it and rebought lower a couple times the past week).

Hoping to sell TCK.B at $8
HGU in the green now (after opening down).

[KleanCord]

jumped in HOU as well.

Put my money where my mouth is on $50 oil.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by davidI
Looks like my thoughts on HOD last week were correct, I was just 3 days ahead of the curve....dammit!

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090330.woilprices0330/GIStory/

3 days ahead of the curve on HOD means you would have made money. I am not sure what you are talking about.

If you are talking about the bearish report from globeinvestor that is hardly breaking news.

Those "analysts" were the same ones saying the fundamentals supported $140 oil.

[KleanCord]

Oil just double tested $50. Should be interesting to see if it can rally from here. I am setting a tight stop on my HOU.

EDIT: Didn't look like it did.

[SilverRex]

^

technically the support number is more closer to 49.40-50, thus only a break below this would price suggest further down side.

therefore 49.50-50 area, either its going to hold here, or we could see 46.50. But that is as low as I see.

[Z_Fan]

I think oil might go to $48.70 today.

I think that is the magic number and then it's going to go back up later this week anyhow. Probably a good day to buy a little bit of HOU...and a good day to sell a little bit of HOD.

[ckangarloo]

I'm right at my stop for HOU. Hoping bad news from GM doesn't bring oil down any more.

[max_boost]

I'll wait for $46.50 oil

[997TT]

SR, whats your take on these 2 articles

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=81037&sn=Detail

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_g20_033020091

RBC Capital Markets forecasts the gold price will continue to be volatile "offering an attractive buying opportunity for gold stocks on pullbacks into periods of weak demand in Q2/09 and early Q3/09."

Meanwhile RBC is maintaining its average gold price forecasts of $850/oz for this year, $875/oz for 2010, and $900/oz long-term. Key catalysts for gold are expected to be seasonal demand trends; speculative and investment flows; emerging market flows and scrap gold sales; and U.S. dollar impact.

"As noted above, we expect significant volatility in the gold price, and we could see a trading range from $750/oz to $1,000/oz in 2009,' RBC analysts said.

"Gold equities are also expected to be volatile, as they trend to trade off the spot price and not a projected average for a forecast period," they suggest, adding that they believe the global Tier I and Tier II gold equities are pricing in a long-term gold price assumption of a range of $800/oz to $850/oz.


Back in the gold market, however, "The one-month view for Spot Gold continues to favor a breakdown below $900," claims a note from David Barclay, commodity strategist at Standard Chartered Bank and an exponent of using Fibonacci sequences in trying to forecast future movements.

"That should allow for a test of $865 to $860 and lower."

[e36bmw///]

nm

[ckangarloo]

stopped out.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
SR, whats your take on these 2 articles

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=81037&sn=Detail

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_g20_033020091

RBC Capital Markets forecasts the gold price will continue to be volatile "offering an attractive buying opportunity for gold stocks on pullbacks into periods of weak demand in Q2/09 and early Q3/09."

Meanwhile RBC is maintaining its average gold price forecasts of $850/oz for this year, $875/oz for 2010, and $900/oz long-term. Key catalysts for gold are expected to be seasonal demand trends; speculative and investment flows; emerging market flows and scrap gold sales; and U.S. dollar impact.

"As noted above, we expect significant volatility in the gold price, and we could see a trading range from $750/oz to $1,000/oz in 2009,' RBC analysts said.

"Gold equities are also expected to be volatile, as they trend to trade off the spot price and not a projected average for a forecast period," they suggest, adding that they believe the global Tier I and Tier II gold equities are pricing in a long-term gold price assumption of a range of $800/oz to $850/oz.


Back in the gold market, however, "The one-month view for Spot Gold continues to favor a breakdown below $900," claims a note from David Barclay, commodity strategist at Standard Chartered Bank and an exponent of using Fibonacci sequences in trying to forecast future movements.

"That should allow for a test of $865 to $860 and lower."

I read that this morning, gold will be volatile I Agree, I dont think it will get to 750, but I dont rule out 850-875 at all, but imo technically we are ready for an upleg, and I can only suggest that any dip is basically opportunity for entry. How low will it go? no one knows, if you read one of the charts I posted in the long term thread if we mirrior the 1978 run when it was flerting with its peak, it too got dropped out of its long up channel only to move side ways until about mid april and it took off. Knowing G20 is around the corner, april-may could be a good month for gold, I just have to give the thumbs to gold. Sure I could be wrong, anyone could be wrong. I fully anticipate it wont be long when we find the 1000 area to be a good support level.

remember when oil was at 35? and I mention from an over all view anything below 40 is a good price, but no one knows where it will bottom out until after the fact and now you wish oil is at 35. I think gold will soon run into the same situation where anything around or below 900 is a place to strength one's position.

[davidI]

Originally posted by KleanCord


3 days ahead of the curve on HOD means you would have made money. I am not sure what you are talking about.

If you are talking about the bearish report from globeinvestor that is hardly breaking news.

Those "analysts" were the same ones saying the fundamentals supported $140 oil.

I bought in on HOD last Tuesday thinking the fundamentals were weak and the wednesday inventory report would knock the price down. The price actually remained bullish despite the high inventory numbers so I got stopped out at a slight loss on Thursday. I meant 3 days ahead of the curve on the correction. The rally made no sense to me but I couldn't risk oil continuing to tramp up while my HOD got killed further. Wishing I held now but hindsight is always 20/20. I still think I made the right call at the time...

[max_boost]

Alright, bought some HOU at $6.25 :nut:

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by davidI


I bought in on HOD last Tuesday thinking the fundamentals were weak and the wednesday inventory report would knock the price down. The price actually remained bullish despite the high inventory numbers so I got stopped out at a slight loss on Thursday. I meant 3 days ahead of the curve on the correction. The rally made no sense to me but I couldn't risk oil continuing to tramp up while my HOD got killed further. Wishing I held now but hindsight is always 20/20. I still think I made the right call at the time...

ahh I see. That sucks. Sometimes knowing you were right helps with future confidence even if you don't profit from it.

[SilverRex]

come on 48.60, 46.50 oil is my magic number :)

[max_boost]

Originally posted by KleanCord


ahh I see. That sucks. Sometimes knowing you were right helps with future confidence even if you don't profit from it. haha no it doesn't! j/k :rofl:

my confidence comes from making the right calls and pocketing $$$ from them hehe :thumbsup:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
come on 48.60, 46.50 oil is my magic number :)

hope you wronge...lol :angel: cause i got some at 6.13 ...:D lets go oil NOW :dunno:

[max_boost]

Alright, so now it got me thinking man.

Stock market is falling, uncertainty with GM/Chrysler. So that's dragging down oil right? Is there something brewing here? Markets fall for a few more days? Tomorrow we see $46 oil? Wednesday inventory count and we get 4million+ and then $42 oil?

Say what? Deja vu? Going to get slaughtered again? :nut: :dunno: :facepalm:

[mac_82]

I am sitting on my hands with HOU. Hopefully Oil continues to slide, and I can hop on in the $5-5.50 range.

[RX_EVOLV]

Originally posted by mac_82
I am sitting on my hands with HOU. Hopefully Oil continues to slide, and I can hop on in the $5-5.50 range.

same. watching this one closely on the sideline for now, much rather buy in after it bounces from the bottom then trying to catch the bottom. IMO ~$46-47 is a great support, so if it drops to that range tmr ( or even today!) i'm gonna pick some up

[hattonlynch]

something is brewing in ITX....many insiders buying and stock has went up 30% in a week or so....possible buyout?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by max_boost



$52 oil is a must short. No doubt about it lol
:thumbsup:

Posted on March 16th. Alas, I have no balls because when $52 came around, I was afraid, very afraid. :( :facepalm:

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost

my confidence comes from making the right calls and pocketing $$$ from them hehe :thumbsup:

Haha, as long as I have more wins than losses I'm happy. Small win is better than a big loss...

I play the markets like I play poker...I make my decision based on the information at the time. If I fold a 2-7 and the flop comes up 7-7-2 I don't change my game and start playing 2-7s! So far I've won more than I've lost so that's where my confidence grows.

I think the toughest lesson to learn when it comes to stocks is knowing when to accept you were wrong and take the loss...before it becomes a bigger loss!

[troyl]

Originally posted by max_boost


Posted on March 16th. Alas, I have no balls because when $52 came around, I was afraid, very afraid. :( :facepalm:

Hind sight is always 20/20. If you did short at $52 would you have held HOD as oil continued its trek to almost $55 over this time period?

[SilverRex]

had none of you read the oil chart that I posted for weeks? the channel I drew for weeks called 55 as top , well it got close 54.75

and is it no wonder its going after the bottom of the trend?

the only catch is there are two channels. if the 49.5 doesnt hold well looks like it wants to hit the lower one.

there fore range is now 46.50-55 wow what a cocindent, before it was 35-45, now its 45-55 notice the range is climbing?


:D
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil30.jpg

[SilverRex]

on the DOW front, the 38% retracement from the 9088 peak to 6469 low is at around 7470, if it closes below this, ouch.

either side (above 8087) or below 7470 how ever long it sustains either would indicate the next direction.

I dont know if it's been selling off too fast and too soon. I would at least expect it to move side ways. but certainly the market will reveal its hand soon

[KleanCord]

looks like short covering will probably keep it above 7470 for the time being. I hope tomorrow we get a bounce back.

[KleanCord]

My question is this.

Did the US Government stepping in and firing GMs CEO cause the markets to tumble?

With his success I would be surprised that GM didn't rally from there.

Maybe this is simply a case of traders selling off/shorting based on big news over the weekend.

I don't think the fundamentals are any different. This might actually be the time to applaud the presidency for stopping the money drain. Chrysler and Chevy keep going with their hands out and return nothing. It is about time someone in the White House asked for some accountability.

[davidI]

^ I think it's the realization that GM and Chrysler are in DEEP SHIT that made the markets tumble. The gov't not readily handing them cash is big...where's their backstop now?

I have no idea what the markets will do tomorrow. My guess is they'll go up a bit first thing in the morning and then continue their slide...but I'm really just closing my eyes and shooting. I closed all my positions last week so I'm just trying to time my next entry...I go on holidays on Friday so I'm just hoping to get in some good swings before then. Don't want to hold a damn thing in this market.

[max_boost]

Yeah, it's funny how fast your sentiment changes in this market. Last week everything was good, we turned the corner, bull market etc. :nut:

Now this week I'm rattled because the whole auto industry is a mess, the banks never really made any money (read Canmorite's thread on AIG). I am a plastic bag in the wind :(

[997TT]

Max, are you getting the 328 or 335 cab?

how about HGU/TCK go through the fkn roof and you upgrade to a M3 cab and i'll offset those gains against my HOU losses :clap:

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
Yeah, it's funny how fast your sentiment changes in this market. Last week everything was good, we turned the corner, bull market etc. :nut:

Now this week I'm rattled because the whole auto industry is a mess, the banks never really made any money (read Canmorite's thread on AIG). I am a plastic bag in the wind :(

I must admit that last week I didn't make anywhere near the gains I should have because I just didn't get where the F*ck the market was going...the trend was certainly there but the rally just didn't make sense. It looks like people screwed on their heads over the weekend and now I just don't know when it will see bottom lol. I can't win these days haha. I'm just doing swing trades with tight stops and will maybe try to play some trends over the day. I still think we're in for one more low low and that's when I'm pushing my chips all in....if it doesn't develop then I won't really lose much, but certainly won't win as much as some of you lucky pricks either haha.

[Dinan]

oil u $1.4..... looks like the HOU buy was good.... howlong you guys holding it??


so much for that... up .25 now.... what just befor the market opend eh, nice...:nut:

[SilverRex]

not much change for both oil and gold chart wise. oil so far oil is trying to recapture the upper trend channel bottom holding up and the 48-50 area is providing a very good short term support with the market ready for an initial up day and US dollar dropping, this bolds well.

however the ideal entry still exist right around 46-47 as now only this is the last trend line since the 33 bottom but it is also a 38% retracement making it the perfect level to hit before pushing higher.

hence my own strategy calls for a position around 49-50 and another if we shall see 46-47 (if we are lucky to get there) then its buy and hold to see how far oil can take us in which the channel upper target now suggest between 55-60. But something tells me it will be a while before we can overcome the 55 resistance overhead and such I would keep my profit if price reaches around the level. It is better to wait for a breakout and buy back on support then wasting all profits away.

same with gold still in a descending wedge which should be bullish of course some force is at work trying to push gold lower to the point so that TA guys would jump off the train. so far the 915 area is still holding and it must gold if gold is to see short term test back at 960 other wise we will be flerting with the880 low a few weeks back.

long term remains strong, short term will depend how gold reacts to 930, 945 and 960. overall gold is continue to consolidate around the low 900 area. I guess the bright spot, the longer the better so that this area can provide a very strong foundation for the next leg up.

update: another observation, now every 6-7 am for days now gold makes a strong rally then the strength disappears. is this a clear sign that someone knows by 6 am is when gold bottoms out and some fund or some country or some where is trying to add to their gold reserve? but doesnt want to impact the market as much so they build it up over time? it can only be a good sign for gold bulls

[davidI]

Bought some HOU at $6....tight stops at $5.70 and $6.60. Rolling the dice...go bulls!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
Bought some HOU at $6....tight stops at $5.70 and $6.60. Rolling the dice...go bulls!

when you guys do a stop, do you place an sell order? so one for 5.7 and another for 6.6, so which ever comes first??

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by davidI
Bought some HOU at $6....tight stops at $5.70 and $6.60. Rolling the dice...go bulls!

hm, 5.7 may be a bad number for a stop

since the next major support is oil at 46.50 that would put hou around 5.50

[davidI]

Originally posted by SilverRex


hm, 5.7 may be a bad number for a stop

since the next major support is oil at 46.50 that would put hou around 5.50

Yea, I have another buy order in at $5.55 haha. Figure if it breaches $5.70 it will continue on down to that support. My trading commissions are so cheap ($.01/share) it makes it cheap and worthwhile to play the small gaps.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


when you guys do a stop, do you place an sell order? so one for 5.7 and another for 6.6, so which ever comes first??

I use Interactive Brokers and they have the option of a bracket order...so it submits a limit order ($6.00 in this example) and then 2 pending orders that are submitted if that initial order is filled. So, when my HOU was filled at $6.00, 2 sell orders were submitted, one at $5.70 and another at $6.60. Whichever gets hit first stops me out. So far the bears are winning so I'm losing...but with these crazy ETFs I just look at the trend, place my bet and roll the dice. Not going for big wins...just hoping to win more than I lose in the long-term haha. So far it has been a good strategy for me.

[bigbadboss101]

Quebecor went from 0.03 to 0.15+.

[civic_rida]

Anyone know why canadian oil sands is up so much when oil is down.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Anyone know why canadian oil sands is up so much when oil is down.

I think because it sold off so hard yesterday

[SilverRex]

wow gold was quite the show in the last 1-2 hours

watching the 915 is probablly such a critical level for bulls the fight was exciting to watch. saw gold pushed to 912 with 2 mins left to form a very bearish signal for gold then suddenly in the last 2 mins it pushed back above 915, and within seconds it was swinging 3-4 dollars a sec between a bullish hammer and or a break candle bar below 915.

I guess in the dying seconds, gold bulls won and 915 held.

now, if we've seen the bottom for the day, I expect that last min close above 915 to ease off some selling pressure and so gold can get back around 920

and oil, pretty obvious, once it bottoms out somewhere between 46.50-50 it will try for 55 again.

now maybe, just maybe the inventory report will help us bring oil down alittle further? :) I want my 46.50 oil

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


I use Interactive Brokers and they have the option of a bracket order...so it submits a limit order ($6.00 in this example) and then 2 pending orders that are submitted if that initial order is filled. So, when my HOU was filled at $6.00, 2 sell orders were submitted, one at $5.70 and another at $6.60. Whichever gets hit first stops me out. So far the bears are winning so I'm losing...but with these crazy ETFs I just look at the trend, place my bet and roll the dice. Not going for big wins...just hoping to win more than I lose in the long-term haha. So far it has been a good strategy for me.

ahhh, thats cool.... my BMO doesn't have that....



wow look at IMO, over $3 from yesterday to now.... damn.....


oil up .50... the most all day, (since our market opend) :)

[DJ_NAV]

I got HOU at 6... I'm debating if I should hold it overnight?... any opinions?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
I got HOU at 6... I'm debating if I should hold it overnight?... any opinions?

same here, i almost got out at 6.35 but i said i'll hold...


if you got some back up cash, i would say hold it, and if it drops down to 5.5 or so tomorrow, just buy in some more... last week inventory was up but oil went up.. who knows :confused:

[bigbadboss101]

US bank stocks got hit good yesterday and today they recovered. Opinion on BAC, FAS?

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


ahhh, thats cool.... my BMO doesn't have that....



wow look at IMO, over $3 from yesterday to now.... damn.....


oil up .50... the most all day, (since our market opend) :)

You can just submit a couple of sell orders and it would hold the same effect. I feel like I learn something about trading every day and my biggest improvements have definitely been on selling, rather than buying. I rarely catch the peak of a price, but making a bit of money on every trade is better than trying to "hit the lottery" IMO

[DRKM]

Originally posted by davidI


You can just submit a couple of sell orders and it would hold the same effect. I feel like I learn something about trading every day and my biggest improvements have definitely been on selling, rather than buying. I rarely catch the peak of a price, but making a bit of money on every trade is better than trying to "hit the lottery" IMO

When I first started trading I was looking for large gains everyday, I also started with abourd 2grand.

I then realized that it is alot easier to make 1%~3% of your investments a day just scalping off of trends.

Then I took 40 grand out of my house and have been scalping with that with decent results.

Another thing to remember is that we are not doing any kind of work for this money. 1% of 40 thousand is $400. 400 dollars (200 being taxable) in a day is better money then I make at my day job.

Something I find here on this site is that we try to be too greedy with our investments. I set my goals for the day 1% gains or more depending on market conditions sell when I make my profits and don't bother looking back to see what I could have made or lost.


Just food for thought.
Oh anyone try investing in DTO as an alternative to HOD?

[max_boost]

Yep I am no longer greedy like that :nut:
Changed my ways and have cashed in nicely during this rally over the past 2 weeks.

Inventory count tomorrow. As of right now oil is already down so I'm guessing if the report is for bearish oil, watch out! lol Not sure what my plan is right now. I have a stop in place and plan to buy HOU at a lower price if oil decides to tank. $46.50 resistance right? I don't have a clue which way it'll move. The recent oil rally from $35 to $55 has been based on what again? Optimism? :rofl: Oh man, this could get ugly again! :facepalm:

[SilverRex]

ok this week G20, mid april gold rally like 78? we will see soon enough if the market rebound stops here or has more leg.

one day at a time folks, one day at a time.

looking at oil, though suggested yesterday 48-49 area isnt bad but alot of traders are waiting for 46.5 becase it is the last trendline you can find (shown in purple), it is the 50 day EMA on the daily chart it is also the first fibonnachi retracement which makes it a very good place for bulls to hold the fort. I expect it to rally off their for all I know the U shape bottom could be another cup and handle pattern that oil is forming the handle but consolidating between 45-50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil32.jpg

and for gold

the all important 915-916 held to my disbelieve, and im happy to report that the descending wedge is still in tact, it looks like this morning it may break out, but like the last two times after it broke out all it did was forming a larger descending wedge. So for those that are extremely worried and have no confidence in gold what so ever, then may I suggest at least waiting until gold can break and sustain above that green down trend line. To me that would be the trigger that a run is about to start until then the volatility in gold, G20, anything could happen to gold in the next little while as it tries to pick a direction. it could rise sharp and drop fast. Definately not for the faint of heart. my gut feel is, if we can hold on at these level for two more weeks then gold is looking even better.

Many are asking with so much money being printed and a weak US dollar fundamentals, why gold isnt at 2000. Well its very complicated to answer that in one sentence, the only bright spot you have to ask in stead is, why gold hasnt plunged to 500 expecially now that demand from india is virtually nil (the biggest jewllery consumer)


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold27.jpg

[SilverRex]

premarket is ready to open below its important and last (was resistance that turn into support 7470)

watch out if it closes below this today but the key is closing below 3 days in a row I guess that means getting pass the G20 and we are still below 7470 then you have a very good making that the last few weeks was a bear market rally.

"It was the last day of the first quarter which saw gold rise 4.3% which is a second straight quarterly gain. In the quarter, gold was up some 10% in euro terms and some 6% in pound terms.

Gold thus again outperformed most other asset classes (as per performance tables below). The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the first quarter of 2009 at 7608.92, down 13% which was the worst first quarter in percentage terms since 1939. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, lost 12% in the quarter."

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/sc3.jpg

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Dinan


same here, i almost got out at 6.35 but i said i'll hold...




wow, what a mistake that was :banghead: ... $-2 .....:nut:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


wow, what a mistake that was :banghead: ... $-2 .....:nut:

I closed out a small profit at $6.14 near the end of the trading day yesterday. Will be looking to re-enter at the low $5s.

[997TT]

anybody having problems getting into their TD Waterhouse account?

Fk ... these discount brokerages have so many problems.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


I closed out a small profit at $6.14 near the end of the trading day yesterday. Will be looking to re-enter at the low $5s.

i was thinking about doing that at 6.30... but no i want more lol... and looks like inventories are up again, so i guess will see 46.6 oil....

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


i was thinking about doing that at 6.30... but no i want more lol... and looks like inventories are up again, so i guess will see 46.6 oil....

I don't like holding HOD / HOU overnight much right now...I can't read the market at all...the rally doesn't make sense! So tempted to get soem HXD this morning.

[ExtraSlow]

Looking for a reccomendation for a company that:
- is canadian based
- Primarily produces Oil, not Natural gas.
- Is not an oil sands producer.
- Is over $1bn market cap.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Looking for a reccomendation for a company that:
- is canadian based
- Primarily produces Oil, not Natural gas
- Is over $1bn market cap.

Suncor/PetroCan

[davidI]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Looking for a reccomendation for a company that:
- is canadian based
- Primarily produces Oil, not Natural gas
- Is over $1bn market cap.

NXY or TLM

SU / PCA has more upside if the price of oil gets up there again though. Depends on how long you're looking to hold.

[ExtraSlow]

Edited above. Not looking for oil sands companies.

[bwling]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Looking for a reccomendation for a company that:
- is canadian based
- Primarily produces Oil, not Natural gas.
- Is not an oil sands producer.
- Is over $1bn market cap.

Petrobank has good exposure to the Bakken play

[sputnik]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Edited above. Not looking for oil sands companies.

Not going to happen.

IIRC Petro Canada was the biggest Canadian conventional oil producer in Canada and still was invested in the oil sands.

[ExtraSlow]

Looking at Crescent point, Petrobank, Tristar.

Others?

[KleanCord]

Petrobank is a good recommendation. I just hate how they are trading near the top of their resistance right now.
THAI technology patent for SAGD like applications. Should be noted that I hardly see anything new with this process so I am not sure what exactly they are patenting.
Lots of Bakken though.

Crescent Point seems to be the darling. But I don't like their lack of discount over last years price. Suncor is trading at 1/3 meanwhile CPG is at 2/3. But they are well managed and have great cash flow.

Highpine is largely Alberta oil only. Nice balance sheets and comes at a large discount.

[ckangarloo]

Damn. Just missed oils 2pm rally.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by ckangarloo
Damn. Just missed oils 2pm rally.

what rally :confused:

[ckangarloo]

Right at 2PM CLK09 usually jumps 1 or 2%. Went from 47.60 to 48.15.
Squeezing pennies.

[Z_Fan]

HOU went up about $0.11 in about 1 minute.

From $5.80 to $5.91 but I don't think it's a big deal. A rally would mean it ends green IMO. Don't see that happening. But you never know. $48.27 now.

I am freeing up some cash though. Might buy some HOU tomorrow when oil is in the $46's.

[Dinan]

i seee, but it was a small really, rally is when it goes GREEN :burnout:

now the rally is somewhat, i guess 5.97......

[ckangarloo]

Next time, I am in just before 2PM. Happens more often than not.

[SilverRex]

ok let see here, oil is making a push, you can say there is a double bottom in the low 47, now do you see similaries the last time it put in multiple hammers?

while I really want to get in on 46.50 oil, the purple line support could force oil back up right away.

if your picky, you can say since the chart rolled over oil actually did fulfill its 38% retracement.

no problem since I already have one position, let see how strong the 48 area is.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil33.jpg

[KleanCord]

Is there a reason for the market to pullback tomorrow or on Friday when the employment data comes out?

I am thinking about cashing out and then jumping back in next week.

Sorry I know it is a broad question but I can't recall any reports coming out tomorrow.

[max_boost]

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

As long as the data is better than expected and the fear of the worst has passed by, it's only up from here :D

[sputnik]

What a strange day on the Canadian markets.

Oil is down $1.25 and the TSX still surges 200+ points.

[KleanCord]

^I learned long ago that the TSX just follows the SP500.

There should be some sort of decoupling effect in the future but for now we go up when the US goes up. If there are days where we went in opposite directions it always has corrected itself in the next day.

[max_boost]

HGU up 9% today. :bigpimp:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
HGU up 9% today. :bigpimp:

wow, NICE.... but how did it go up??? doesn't it go up when GOLD goes up, gold is still at 925 ???:confused:

[max_boost]

I have no idea......I'm up 13% since I bought it last Friday and not sure where to exit lol

TSX up 200pts today :dunno:

[djayz]

I tried exiting HGU today at 15.60 but it just didn't get to that point. Will try to exit tomorrow depending on which way it moves, looks to me like it's setting a range between 915 and 930 which seems good.

[Dinan]

so how did HGU go up?? could it be cause it's steady over 915 to 930 for a while, investers are thinking it will shoot up?

oil is up 2$, hope it holds till we open :nut:

[SilverRex]

ok so far market is ready for a good rally here.

the hammer I posted on oil chart yesterday was correct. oil broke out of its descending wedge, so short term wise the 48 held beautifully as shown with the multiple hammers on the chart below. Depending on how it plays the 51-53 area I will see if I should take my profit off the table or not again one day at a time.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil34.jpg

and as for gold, for those that got in when I suggested hgu at around 11 or below would be up anywhere from 40-60% by now :) which is nice. the hui has impressively outperform gold even as gold dropped gold shares continued on forward. hui index's next overhead resistance is around 350. and longer term target at 400.

but as for as gold price, the G20 reaction, broad base rally could swing gold in either direction as investor want in on the market rally and moves away gold but then a strong recovery in the market would suggest inflation that brings gold back up. be prepare to see gold move irrationally. and according to the chart the limited down side that I see is 885 and the key upside is now at 945, for those that just want to enter if gold gives in a buying signal I Would say we need gold to break above 945 and we can see that 945 holds then that would be the number. If gold shall head lower even those the descending wedge doesnt suggest, then have the peace of mind that the 945 will hold the fort, so I will be watching that upper green down trend line tht will eventually dictate gold's direction.

As for as the DOW is concern, continue to watch the 7470 area and 8087 area. you can play the swings in between but keep in mind that multiple day close above or below those level again also should give off market's next direction. I read somewhere that alot of things in the G20 has been agreeed upon even before the meeting as they could afford it to fail, that would bring a panic to the market and in such the rally could have legs toward 9000 area in such case this could be a bear trap for shorts in the medium term.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold28.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Z_Fan]

I was going to buy HOU this morning, but now I think I won't. Hahahah. Missed that boat.

[Dinan]

sell or no ??? :nut: :confused:

[e36bmw///]

mn

[Dinan]

anyone have problems with BMO??? it won't sell ???:banghead:

[bigbadboss101]

Are you using TD? I had some issues this morning but did end up selling some HOU and buying HGU.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I was going to buy HOU this morning, but now I think I won't. Hahahah. Missed that boat.

:werd:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

okay so they sold,, but damn should have waited lol.. it's okay, i'm happy :D

yeah thanks SR:clap:

[Dinan]

forget about HOU, maybe HGU is a good buy soon......:nut:


i guess some good news came out the G20.... all the markets are way up.... Hong Kong up 1002 points, wow.....:nut: