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Dinan
04-06-2009, 07:18 AM
what price you got them at??? yeah i'm fucked too.. but i still got some cash to add to it.... :nut:

SilverRex
04-06-2009, 07:27 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
wow you guys think we will se 9 hgu ???? why?? whats making gold drop like this???


lets see what SR has to say :D

im glad you guys like my calls, but really im not a crystal ball, I can only go with the charts..

now if anyone saw the oil chart over at my long term thread, then oil is so far playing out as well, as you can draw a down trendline connecting 54.75, 43.83 (last week's peak) and so it couldnt break pass this resistance and now collasping almost to 50 dollars.

I will say oil gets attractive below 50 dollars although we could get a bounce when it hits 50 initially. most underlying support still remains between 47-48ish.

Now speaking of the market, the 8075 DOW last week is holding and over all market is down pre-market, again I have to stress the importance of the 8087 area as it is heavily fortified because it is the last retracement as well as a down trend line, only breaking above and sustaining above this for a day or two will it open up the next target at around 9000-9250 I'm guessing only then will oil break above 55? and onto 70? Until that happens, the range for DOW would be between 7500 and 8100, it will be very interesting to see which level it will break first.

speaking of gold, not much change, still going with the chart I posted yesterday. To my own bias I can only say buy on weakness.

a few things to note.

-perhaps the banks and short sellers of gold are trying their hardest to press down gold so they can cover their shorts before gold takes off over 1000 in coming months.
-gold shares is out performing gold price, and last week the ratio gave off a buying signal for gold share, so any bounce in gold will result in great moves in gold stocks is what I believe.

if my initialy analysis is correct, we will have two more weeks of selling pressure for gold before it starts to perform. its either now or oct which is the seasonal high for gold buying. let see how gold reacts this week

e36bmw///
04-06-2009, 07:33 AM
nm

997TT
04-06-2009, 07:33 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
what price you got them at??? yeah i'm fucked too.. but i still got some cash to add to it.... :nut:

Well my sell order just filled. My buy price was $13.50 ... now i'll take a wait and see approach.

SilverRex
04-06-2009, 07:36 AM
Originally posted by e36bmw///
so how does 6.30 hou sounds...
or should i wait

dont forget HOU roll over is this week, next month's contract price is around 53 dollars. so it may be best to wait it out first before getting trap at higher price hou unless you just want to make a quick flip say 1 dollar off 50 as an example.

Dinan
04-06-2009, 07:39 AM
Originally posted by 997TT


Well my sell order just filled. My buy price was $13.50 ... now i'll take a wait and see approach.


thats a big hit :(


what price you going to get in at? low 10's ?

e36bmw///
04-06-2009, 07:43 AM
nbm

Dinan
04-06-2009, 07:44 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex


im glad you guys like my calls, but really im not a crystal ball, I can only go with the charts..




hehehe, know you no crystal bal, but you have great info!


so what price you planing on getting into...?


whats a good real time gold chart?

SilverRex
04-06-2009, 07:46 AM
^

i believe based on a 200 EMA and the sloping down trend, the bleeding should stop somewhere between 860-870 short term

Dinan
04-06-2009, 07:50 AM
^^^ short term :facepalm:


what, it should drop even more???

997TT
04-06-2009, 07:56 AM
Originally posted by Dinan



thats a big hit :(


what price you going to get in at? low 10's ?

Ya, everything i'm reading is suggesting gold will go lower.
i mean even if it goes another 10% lower, then i will have saved some money.

I am looking to rebuy ...just don't know where.

Dinan
04-06-2009, 08:02 AM
^ why is gold doing so bad??

997TT
04-06-2009, 08:12 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
^ why is gold doing so bad??

I like to read a few articles everyday to get an idea of whats going on.

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_commodities_060420096

combined with SR point of view, i form an opiniion (usally wrong so do the opposite of what i do).

djayz
04-06-2009, 08:13 AM
I think we will see a pretty quick turn around of gold and gold stocks. Major buying opportunity right now, just picked up some more HGU at 10.50. If it goes to below 10 I will buy again at 9.50.
Looking to pick up some SLW and YRI near these levels as well as they usually have some good upswings when gold gets going.

sputnik
04-06-2009, 08:14 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
^ why is gold doing so bad??

Gold is a purely speculative play. There is rarely any real explanation as to why it is going up or down.

Dinan
04-06-2009, 08:26 AM
Originally posted by sputnik


Gold is a purely speculative play. There is rarely any real explanation as to why it is going up or down.


damn,,,, i just got in again, at 10.39 :nut:

it should go in the 900's again, right :facepalm: lol

Dinan
04-06-2009, 08:32 AM
Originally posted by djayz
I think we will see a pretty quick turn around of gold and gold stocks. Major buying opportunity right now, just picked up some more HGU at 10.50. If it goes to below 10 I will buy again at 9.50.
Looking to pick up some SLW and YRI near these levels as well as they usually have some good upswings when gold gets going.

hope you right :thumbsup:


wow, HGU went up .50, could 10.38 have been the low? is this the ride up, buy now for the ride up or buy now for the ride dow :nut:

djayz
04-06-2009, 09:45 AM
If you don't trust the rally sell out.
I took my profit at 10.75 from my 10.50 position but I'll be buying back at 10.50 or lower if i can get in. If not I've got positions up higher to hold on to, just wanted to lock in a gain :D

Dinan
04-06-2009, 10:00 AM
i take it you dont turst it.... hmmmmm, what to do, what to dooooo.... :facepalm:




oh wow, look at RIM,, damn!!! :burnout:

Z_Fan
04-06-2009, 10:04 AM
IMO take profit to recover losses, unless you were just wanting to add to the position.

I am thinking of doubling up again if it goes below $10. I was going to try to play it with a different batch of money today just to recover losses. Flip it as much as possible. But it's fairly stable or so it seems...

Dinan
04-06-2009, 10:11 AM
OMG, it's touching 11$

lets see how it goes,,, :dunno:

SilverRex
04-06-2009, 10:12 AM
while not much change but lets just update the chart shall we.

looking at gold, the 860-870 seems to be providing good support. with two trendline and a 200 EMA underneath. the question looking at 843 which is even a killer support, with a weekly trendline, daily trendline, 50% retracement all intersecting coming together along with the downward slope.

I would be adding to my own position when and if it does reach 843. the 870 area should indeed hold for now pending how far it can climb back or if it gets rejected by 880 previous support which now turns into resistance.

for safer play, breaking above the down ward slope (probablly around 930 at current levels) is the key trigger. Until then hold on to your breath this could be a wild finish.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold30.jpg

djayz
04-06-2009, 10:21 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
i take it you dont turst it.... hmmmmm, what to do, what to dooooo.... :facepalm:


Oh I believe the rally but I'll take a profit of $100+ anytime over holding something for longer and not knowing what could happen.
Like I said I hold other positions so I won't miss out.
Plus $100 in a matter of an hour or two just by clicking a few mouse buttons, can't complain :rofl:

Z_Fan
04-06-2009, 10:29 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
OMG, it's touching 11$

lets see how it goes,,, :dunno:

Yeah, since you bought at $10.39, I think you should just watch it while setting a stop loss at around $10.75 or something so you lock in your profit.

Dinan
04-06-2009, 10:34 AM
i just placed an order at 10.89, if it gets filled it does if not, sucks to be me lol... could have sold them at 10.95 :nut:

max_boost
04-06-2009, 11:07 AM
LOL

The only thing up in my portfolio is RIM! haha I bought in at $73

Everything else, DOWN. :poosie:

Me thinks HGU is stuck in the $10-$15 range Look at the 3 month chart. :dunno: I will buy more somewhere between $9-$10 to cost average. Nothing to worry about, if this is the trend, so be it. I don't mind pocketing 30%, wait for pull back and rinse/repeat again lol :rofl:

Z_Fan
04-06-2009, 11:12 AM
HGU hasn't fallen this fast before though in the times I have been watching it. But it did go up this fast once, as I'm sure everyone recalls as it was just recently when the feds decided to take another trillion from the magic print money button and slide it in to their debt paying pocket. IMO, inflation has to get out of control here soon and you have to think this will be good for gold.

djayz
04-06-2009, 11:24 AM
In on YRI at 10.00.

I think the rally that we were seeing is coming to an end, we might see a push to the upside near the end of trading today on the TSX, but I think markets are heading down to their previous levels before this rally occured.

Gold should benefit from this as well as inflation is here but it's just not as obvious.

max_boost
04-06-2009, 11:35 AM
Are you saying the TSX is going back to 7500? and the Dow to 6500?

SilverRex
04-06-2009, 11:36 AM
^

all eyes on DOW 8087, 7779 and 7470, if the market is to repeat the big 50% rally just like the 30s. then one of those level 7779 and 7470 will hold that will present a buying opportunity. DOW is set for a push towards 9250 once it finds a bottom.

hopefully this will take oil to 70 dollars, and a resumption of the dollar's downward spiral which should lead gold prices higher.

gold is right smach between many things

-investor jumping in and out as safe haven
-investor jumping in and out between the deflation and inflation camp
-bank manipulation and huge short contracts back in Feb probablly taking a toll now
-bank pushing hard to cover their shorts
-india waiting for the right price to resume their demand for their april/may festival
-technical shaking out weak hands in gold before rise? some indicator dont add up to recent weakness which makes it suspicious.

all in all hang tight :) in saying a further rally in coming weeks or even month doesnt mean the economy is recovery fast, rather this is probablly the result of the trillions the fed injected that is starting kick in.

Dinan
04-06-2009, 11:42 AM
damn, why didn't HGU hit 11$, when gold was 874+, but when it was 871 it hit. 10.97 :dunno:


good buy for HSE, 27$



good buy on RIM,,, someone on here got it at 55-60, hope you didn't sell yo early :thumbsup:

max_boost
04-06-2009, 11:47 AM
HGU=Gold stocks

HBU=Gold spot

mac_82
04-06-2009, 11:50 AM
I wish I bought more Ford stock when I did...

max_boost
04-06-2009, 12:02 PM
OPC, F, DNDN all up nicely today!!

Dinan
04-06-2009, 12:19 PM
still keeping your RIM shares?

KleanCord
04-06-2009, 12:40 PM
Yeah I still have the RIM shares.

Now I have two decisions to make. Do I sell them and incur capital gains when I am quite sure that over the long run I have bought into a good company. Or do I trade them as they approach $70US which is the 200 Day moving average. I am probably going to have to free up money at some point to keep trading, but I just don't know what to sell yet.

EDIT: Sorry Dinan thought you were talking to me.

I am still keeping Husky for now, and I still have my RIM from $54. Did you get your dividend from Husky Dinan? Turned out pretty good yield at ~4.5%

modded46
04-06-2009, 01:20 PM
A few contributions on stuff to watch..

NFLD
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/2048/54393335.png (http://img258.imageshack.us/my.php?image=54393335.png)

EBHI
http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/8127/41222372.png (http://img516.imageshack.us/my.php?image=41222372.png)

AIG
http://img407.imageshack.us/my.php?image=sc2k.png

CHTR - Why not. :)
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/4757/75245856.png (http://img80.imageshack.us/my.php?image=75245856.png)

max_boost
04-06-2009, 01:21 PM
Do you think RIM will be prime for a pullback at the 200DMA?

Dinan
04-06-2009, 01:55 PM
Originally posted by KleanCord
Yeah I still have the RIM shares.

Now I have two decisions to make. Do I sell them and incur capital gains when I am quite sure that over the long run I have bought into a good company. Or do I trade them as they approach $70US which is the 200 Day moving average. I am probably going to have to free up money at some point to keep trading, but I just don't know what to sell yet.

EDIT: Sorry Dinan thought you were talking to me.

I am still keeping Husky for now, and I still have my RIM from $54. Did you get your dividend from Husky Dinan? Turned out pretty good yield at ~4.5%

yeah, i wasnt sure if you were the one that bought them,,, wow, 26 bucks per share,, wow....damn howmuch you buy ?? :burnout:

when did you get the dividen? cuz i got out few days ago, when it hit 28.66.......

Inzane
04-06-2009, 07:27 PM
I was in to RIM at 63 and out at 74. Unfortunately I had left my sell order open over the weekend. When I was driving in to work this morning and heard at market open that RIM was already at 76 ... I was like "FFAAAWWWKKK".

When I saw it hit 79 I was :cry: .

Three tech plays in a row where I cashed in too early (AAPL, AMD and now RIM). I took profit in all cases, just not MAXIMUM. Oh well.

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 06:22 AM
ok pre-market is down DOW will test the 7779 support. depending how how it plays out we could see 7470 soon. Of course no one really knows which way the market wants to go but based on technicals I would say anything below 7470 points to a resumption of the downtrend (would this be the march to 4000?)

but a break above 8087 is equally impressive that will pave the way to 9250 (200 EMA) and 50% retracement from its low to peak just like the 50% rally in the 30s

however if the market is poise for a rally pass 8000 and beyond, that would make the 7500 floor a very good place to enter with stop because that would suggest a double bottom which is significant in the TA world.

gold while the 865 provided short term support, it is currently rejected off 880 many hours ago, and so far it looks like it is ready to make new lows unless it can quickly climb back above 883 that will put in a reverse H&S that should bring momentum back to 900 area.

the only bright stop at this early hour (6:21am) premarket is up for gold shares HGU is at 11.30 but not sure if that will hold if gold tanks leading up to market open. However is the strength in gold share a sign that gold is ready for a bounce? It cant dip every single day.

I read another forum that a key is to watch the silver and gold ratio and when the ratio widens it means liquidity is tightening up =bearish stock market. and so far the ratio is widening over 72

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold31.jpg


looking at oil, its coming down again, the initial 50 bounce was expected but now flerting with it once more, with HOU roll over this week I'll be staying away for a bit to see how it plays out, oil would be better under 50 then it is over over expecially next month's oil price is sitting in the 52-53 range. unless you want to day trade then look for buying at around the bottom green uptrend. currently big oil support is at around low 47, a break below this is not good. but a break above that red line is a buying signal just like when it broke 45 which lead to a run to 55

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil35.jpg

KleanCord
04-07-2009, 07:15 AM
Originally posted by max_boost
Do you think RIM will be prime for a pullback at the 200DMA?

As far as I can tell it is the only natural resistance left. It needs to pullback at some point and I just don't see it blowing straight past the 200 DMA. This is just a hunch though.

Z_Fan
04-07-2009, 07:24 AM
Well at least those who bought HGU yesterday should have a chance to make a quick buck today...HGU should go up quite a bit. We'll see how open goes...

Dinan
04-07-2009, 07:45 AM
i sold some of my HGU, i'm kinda scare holding, gold, i hear it will go down, so i'm thinking of selling wth a bit of a loss :dunno:

Proyecto2000
04-07-2009, 08:05 AM
HGU touched $12, then it just dropped back into $11.20 within 2min

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 08:19 AM
nm

Z_Fan
04-07-2009, 08:20 AM
No high is $11.66 low $11.23 on HGU

Proyecto2000
04-07-2009, 08:25 AM
^^ you guys are right thats what my Day High and Low are showing.

However when I kept refreshing my level 2, it was showing up at
11.59
12.00
12.01
12.02
12.03

Dinan
04-07-2009, 08:52 AM
i never saw 12, if i did i would have taken it all out lol.. but yeah, 11.66 was the highest.....

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 09:07 AM
come on gold is fighting hard around 880, a break above 883 should ignite a run to test the 895-905 overhead resistance. this would bring hgu over 12

:D

Dinan
04-07-2009, 09:13 AM
Originally posted by KleanCord


As far as I can tell it is the only natural resistance left. It needs to pullback at some point and I just don't see it blowing straight past the 200 DMA. This is just a hunch though.


when did you get your dividend? in the mail? was it 4.5% on the amount you had or is that yearly ?




edit.... whats a good real time gold chart?

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 09:27 AM
nm

Dinan
04-07-2009, 09:30 AM
^^ howmuch is your transaction fee?

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 09:32 AM
nm

Dinan
04-07-2009, 09:39 AM
oh yeah, with who? how you get it so cheap? mine is 9.95 wth BMO, and i get charged for every time i place a trade, don't matter if it's the same stock ....

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 09:41 AM
nm

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 09:42 AM
this is what I think gold is going to do

you cannot underestimate the strength and technical implication when gold first broke the massive down trendline shown in dark purple

now I think we are back to where we started back in early 08, the formation fo a 3rd bowl is in play and once it breaks 1033, this will comfirm a larger reverse H&S pattern that will push gold to new heights. Mind you just dont expect gold to goto da moon with so many factors in play, but will sure will make today's level a dream entry 6-10 months down the road.

while it sure is nice to see gold climb back above 895 or even onto 930 at least one last time, but chart is starting to tell me it may be a matter of time until we see it swing to 840-850 and I just have to imagine this is the level where the whole world is waiting for.

how to play this? well either wait for it or if gold somehow breaks above 930 which ever comes first.

short term weakness does not change the bullish out look that gold remains solid for at least another year or two.

please note the last time stoachstic indicator is this low has put in a bottom for gold going forward.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold32.jpg

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 09:43 AM
nm

Dinan
04-07-2009, 09:54 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
this is what I think gold is going to do

you cannot underestimate the strength and technical implication when gold first broke the massive down trendline shown in dark purple

now I think we are back to where we started back in early 08, the formation fo a 3rd bowl is in play and once it breaks 1033, this will comfirm a larger reverse H&S pattern that will push gold to new heights. Mind you just dont expect gold to goto da moon with so many factors in play, but will sure will make today's level a dream entry 6-10 months down the road.

while it sure is nice to see gold climb back above 895 or even onto 930 at least one last time, but chart is starting to tell me it may be a matter of time until we see it swing to 840-850 and I just have to imagine this is the level where the whole world is waiting for.

how to play this? well either wait for it or if gold somehow breaks above 930 which ever comes first.

short term weakness does not change the bullish out look that gold remains solid for at least another year or two.

please note the last time stoachstic indicator is this low has put in a bottom for gold going forward.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold32.jpg


you seem so sure and yet you only buying 500 shares lol.....

lets see what happens

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 10:00 AM
^

what 500 shares?

if your talking about my investment allocation I can tell you im quite heavily invested in the metal both shares, etf as well as spot forex silver exchange and physical bullion

Dinan
04-07-2009, 10:21 AM
^^

sorry i didn't mean anyting by it, it came out the wrong way... i was just playing, cause i remember you said you only bought 500 lol.... i look forward to your info, it was a missunderstanding, thats all....



so gold is up 10-11$ but HGU is going down? whats up with that ?:dunno:

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 10:24 AM
nb

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 10:51 AM
^

im waiting until the roll over is done sure the short play would have been to get in under 50 and see how far it can get you. but hou will soon be trading at 52-53 oil price I would wait until that happens

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 10:54 AM
nm

Dinan
04-07-2009, 11:51 AM
anyone buying oil now? before the "2pm rally" ......

max_boost
04-07-2009, 11:59 AM
I will buy HOU when SR buys HOU. :thumbsup:

Proyecto2000
04-07-2009, 12:00 PM
i will buy HOD when max buys HOD :rofl:

Actually I bought HGU earlier in the day, hoping for a turn around

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 12:03 PM
DOW flerting with 7779, key number to watch. closing below this is the 1st step to 7470

I think gold share is being dragged down by the market but the 15 dollar rise off the 866 low yesterday is hardly significant.

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 12:31 PM
nm

modded46
04-07-2009, 12:49 PM
So what's the over/under now on GM failing by the end of the week? Or post market today for that matter.

e36bmw///
04-07-2009, 12:51 PM
nm

KleanCord
04-07-2009, 01:20 PM
Let's face it.

Today all comes down to Alcoa. If they release earnings and are better than expected than we will see this market continue it's rally.

If they have poor earnings I would have to think the next stop is 7500 and then we continue. The thing to keep in mind is that everyone expects the earnings to be bad, so they would have to very very bad to actually cause movement downward tomorrow.

The way I decided to play it was to stay in. I figure it will happen one of two ways. Alcoa does poorly and the DOW shaves off 250 points before heading forward again. They announce good earnings and surge forward. Either way the downside risk seems to be ~5% while the upside should be greater.

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 01:20 PM
market starting to move, I guess people are placing their bets

modded46
04-07-2009, 01:20 PM
Well this is certainly some positive news..

Economic Report: Credit-card debt shrinks at fastest pace in 31 years, Fed says
3:11 PM ET, Apr 07, 2009 - By Rex Nutting

But other than that all I've heard is that GM is in "intense" bankruptcy preparations

Canmorite
04-07-2009, 02:33 PM
Dow futures off some 160 points.

Z_Fan
04-07-2009, 02:36 PM
Oil just took a big nose dive too, with virtually no trading happening right now, that's surprising. Down to $48.60 now.

Dinan
04-07-2009, 05:37 PM
Originally posted by Z_Fan
Oil just took a big nose dive too, with virtually no trading happening right now, that's surprising. Down to $48.60 now.

dont they trade it out west? and australia/china and the east ?? or is that a dfferent?

max_boost
04-07-2009, 07:27 PM
^^

But the volumes are small. As usual, inventory report tomorrow. If HOU gets killed tomorrow, I really want to jump in but it's also day 1 of rollover. If the front month drops, and the near month doesn't, it only widens the contango which is bad for HOU and good for HOD lol

Me thinks I should have bought HOD today knowing these things. Other than the change of season I really don't know why oil is so bullish, maybe the economy IS recovering? lol

Inventories are still increasing in the 3million+, just not as crazy as the 6-7 back in Dec/Jan.

Anyway, let me know when you buy HOU SilverREx!!! haha

Z_Fan
04-07-2009, 07:34 PM
Dinan, anyone anywhere in the world can I would expect can trade on the NYMEX. It's basically open 24 hours a day, with just a 45 minute break each day which takes place from 5:15PM to 6:00PM.

The settle price is established at 2:30PM NY time, so that's why HOU/HOD generally have little to no movement after that in a trading day because the majority of the volume trading is done for that day.

But the price can and does continue to change, and sometimes this is what leads to very big gap ups/downs in the oil price. I suspect tomorrow oil will hit $46 again. <smile> Low $48.10 now.

SilverRex
04-07-2009, 08:48 PM
wow after hours DOW is now in the 7600s, looks like we will see 7470 soon

djayz
04-07-2009, 09:13 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
^^

But the volumes are small. As usual, inventory report tomorrow. If HOU gets killed tomorrow, I really want to jump in but it's also day 1 of rollover. If the front month drops, and the near month doesn't, it only widens the contango which is bad for HOU and good for HOD lol

Me thinks I should have bought HOD today knowing these things. Other than the change of season I really don't know why oil is so bullish, maybe the economy IS recovering? lol

Inventories are still increasing in the 3million+, just not as crazy as the 6-7 back in Dec/Jan.

Anyway, let me know when you buy HOU SilverREx!!! haha

Oil is bullish because we all know that the summer driving season is fast approaching. Because of this recession people that would usually fly are now going to drive which means more oil consumption, not to mention all the crazy gas guzzling cars that hit the roads.

We should see $60 oil before seeing $40.

Dinan
04-08-2009, 05:59 AM
what is this rollover and contango i keep hearing on the news too...


yeah i also hear on the news that we will see 60$ oil before 40$, so does that mean we will see 40$ oil :nut:

oil at 48$ now..... so SR, when you getting into HOU :D :D :angel:

SilverRex
04-08-2009, 06:47 AM
ok not muchchange chart wise

but looking at oil I think it will be a good bet to buy oil between 47-48 with a tight stop at or below 46.5. As the 47 area could be a double bottom if oil plays out on the upside, meaning if oil has any thing left and if we shall see 60-70 oil, this is it.

however what concerns is that hou is beginning to turn over to next's month contract amid slowly 25%, then 50% then 100%, so trade accordingly.

if oil dips thru 47, then we have a different problem on our hands.
however now that oil is back above 48, can one get in below 48 is the question

as for gold, after breaking pass 883, it found some new strength as it is looking good to test 895, the 895-905 area will be a huge (not joking) resistance. if gold puches right back above this, this would bring gold back from short term bearishness to neutral pending breakout on the upside

if the 900 area holds, then we are still going to look for the 840-850 support to be the (my) last stand.

KEy price is 881 as seen it as bounced off it this morning, this number is critical because it is the 1st retracement support from the 681 to 1006 run. if price can hold above this, the longer it holds, the more it indicates this is still in a light correction. heavier correction will put pressure on the 50% level at 843 which I dont mind seeing either as I'll be adding to my position

update: gold is flerting with the 881-883 area again, break below this will indicate resumption of down trend

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil36.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold33.jpg

Dinan
04-08-2009, 07:33 AM
hou 5.88.... anyone buying? so what will the rollover do to the price/.? lower?

eljefe
04-08-2009, 07:42 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
hou 5.88.... anyone buying? so what will the rollover do to the price/.? lower?

I'm just not willing to pull the trigger right in the middle of the roll over, and with inventory numbers about to come out. In saying that - it seems lately oil rallys after bad inventory numbers......

Edit- also I can't stomach being in multiple 2x ETF's at the same time

997TT
04-08-2009, 07:58 AM
HGU back to where i sold it a few days ago ... hope those that bought in got out for a quick profit.

Dinan
04-08-2009, 08:22 AM
Originally posted by eljefe


I'm just not willing to pull the trigger right in the middle of the roll over, and with inventory numbers about to come out. In saying that - it seems lately oil rallys after bad inventory numbers......

Edit- also I can't stomach being in multiple 2x ETF's at the same time

what is a rollover?? howlong it last for? so hou will go down then??


you still stuck with HGU, like me :( lol

e36bmw///
04-08-2009, 08:25 AM
nm

eljefe
04-08-2009, 08:28 AM
Originally posted by Dinan


what is a rollover?? howlong it last for? so hou will go down then??


you still stuck with HGU, like me :( lol

Today I believe is the first day of the roll over to the next months contract which is currently $2.71 higher- Day 1 of the roll over is 75% current and 25% next month, Day 2 is 50% 50% until day 4 is entirely next months contract. So we will be entirely trading on next months contract next week. Because it is higher, when the current month closes it often happens that oil will slide back down to the closing contract price. This of course leads HOU down in value with it.

Dinan
04-08-2009, 08:32 AM
^^ ahh i seee, kinda get it now. so when would it be good to buy? the 4th day of the rollover!

SilverRex
04-08-2009, 08:34 AM
Originally posted by e36bmw///
am i reading this right

inventory is up by 6.94 mil?

my article says inventory +1.7mil

eljefe
04-08-2009, 08:36 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
^^ ahh i seee, kinda get it now. so when would it be good to buy? the 4th day of the rollover!

Umm, not necessarily. At that time HOU is trading the May contract (which may still be 2 or 3 dollars higher) while the April contract is still open and trading. When that April contract closes is when the Contango effect is often felt. Read back or search for "Contango" Maxboost has provided some more in depth explanations.

e36bmw///
04-08-2009, 08:39 AM
nm

ckangarloo
04-08-2009, 08:41 AM
I thought tomorrow is the first day of the rollover (7, 8, 9th business day of the month).

Looks like CLK9 is enjoying its customary spike on a bearish EIA report.

Dinan
04-08-2009, 08:47 AM
oh wow, looks at hou :eek:

eljefe
04-08-2009, 08:49 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
oh wow, looks at hou :eek:

never mind that , hgu is coming back from the morning lows!

e36bmw///
04-08-2009, 08:52 AM
nm

e36bmw///
04-08-2009, 09:01 AM
nm

e36bmw///
04-08-2009, 09:01 AM
nm

Dinan
04-08-2009, 09:05 AM
Originally posted by eljefe


never mind that , hgu is coming back from the morning lows!


yes! still a bit off to take my shares out....

but damn, what happend with oil, missed the HOU train ......