Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

looking at the US dollar index

it is on the verge of breaking down lower

if that mini H&S breaks down, next target is 2 pts down to the last up trend line and 200 DAY EMA, which imo could be a reversal.

alot of folks talking higher US dollar

so could this be a short term weakness in the US dollar that will fuel equities, gold and oil higher? based on this chart, it does appear there is upside for oil, gold and stocks

then a reversal that will sent stocks down, oil down and perhaps gold will move sideways until it becomes a safe haven investment that will keep it from bowing lower.

of course if it can collasp the swoon beyond the low trendline, then that would be best since it will sent everything higher

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar2-1.jpg

[Dinan]

wow, at 27$ , you got your 27 maxb, hehehehe,,, i would wait if i was you :D


anyone getting in for a quick trade?:nut:



lets go gold

[eljefe]

^^^ thinking about it

Tried but missed by 9 cents

[SilverRex]

if the above chart and assumption is true

then looking at oil it would be a good buy entry near if not at the purple trendline with stop below the 1st red line, a safer stop would be the 2nd line.

you ask why now if the 51.3 is important I mention eariler, well if we are to see higher oil, wont it be better to get in on the low? considering the H&S threat is about gone, this is a risk/reward play.

for myself my focus is on gold, but if I was to take a risk that oil is about to head higher, I would probablly give it a shot at current levels and anticipate a breakout above 51.7 that will quickly surge to 55. Will we see beyond 55? well that will depend if the dollar index can begin its crash below its 200 Day which I think will hold when we get there.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil51.jpg

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe
^^^ thinking about it

Tried but missed by 9 cents


damn, you guys see whats going on with DNDN :eek: :nut:


it's facken CRAZY!

[Proyecto2000]

So any one buying into HOU this morning? I have an order at $5.50, but it doesnt look like its going to be filled early.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan



damn, you guys see whats going on with DNDN :eek: :nut:


it's facken CRAZY!

for better or worse I got some at 24.80

[tylere]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
So any one buying into HOU this morning? I have an order at $5.50, but it doesnt look like its going to be filled early.

I just placed an order for 5.60, looks like it partially filled

[Dinan]

Originally posted by eljefe


for better or worse I got some at 24.80



nice you up a 1$ for now..... wow, never seen anything like this before

[eljefe]

Well, I only got 500 shares but and could as easily be down a buck too. I have a sell at 26.80- trying for a quick grand on it

[Dinan]

^^^ goodluck guy!



thats too much up and down for me:nut:

[SilverRex]

all eyes on the Fed meeting today

and the worse than expected GDP seems to do nothing on the market. So market does feel like it wants to head higher.

I guess either the FED meeting on the stress result would be the reversal if anything.

or they could fuel the rally higher after all we are still range bound

[Dinan]

i think i'm going to get out off HOU, oil doesn't seem to be moving, anyone else got in, i'm in at .66


okay, so i'm not going to be a hero here lol, i sold hou, i'm going to wait for SR singnal :D


inventory is up again, so lets wait and see..

[SilverRex]

^

right now oil price does not care about the report. oil price is testing the 51.33 area, all eyes is on the US dollar, right now its holding right at a very important support, a break lower = send everything up including oil

I suspect if this happens oil will quickly get to 54.75 within days

for those that are up I would move your stop and watch it closely

DOW and S&P both are about to break new highs

[tylere]

Originally posted by Dinan
i think i'm going to get out off HOU, oil doesn't seem to be moving, anyone else got in, i'm in at .66


okay, so i'm not going to be a hero here lol, i sold hou, i'm going to wait for SR singnal :D


inventory is up again, so lets wait and see..

I got in with a bunch at 5.60 and another batch at 5.66, I'm lookin at makin a quick buck and getting out hopfully today depending on how this moves.

[Red@8]

I am thinking about HOU today too but I am so indecisive today. Everything seems to be sitting on the edge waiting to go one way or the other. I better man up soon and make a choice.

[SilverRex]

dollar index just touched 84.46 which is the support at 84.46 by one tick,

something will happen today either a surge higher or a complete reversal

[Euro_Trash]

Got in EIS last week at 3.42, jumped to 10.50 this morning since Clean Harbors anounced an aquisition. Pretty happy with my purchase!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by tylere


I got in with a bunch at 5.60 and another batch at 5.66, I'm lookin at makin a quick buck and getting out hopfully today depending on how this moves.

i sold mine.... still don't know if i should buy in.....:dunno:



DNDN down to 23.30:nut:

[SilverRex]

im going to place a buy order at 5.50 HOU which is about 50 oil, 50.14 is now support

if oil close below 50 im out

but this will be a good risk/reward play if oil breaks above 51.3

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Euro_Trash
Got in EIS last week at 3.42, jumped to 10.50 this morning since Clean Harbors anounced an aquisition. Pretty happy with my purchase!


thanks for letthing us know before, lol .... ;) nice, hope you bought lots! :D

[Euro_Trash]

Haha I know I know... I am trying to get involved more in this thread as I get more familiar with the market. Finally finished school so all I have been doing is reading and researching.

Plus the last acquisiton I was expecting to happen was UTS, which I made a comment in this thread a couple weeks back. They rejected the offer, and the acquisition never went through, so it was likely better that I never jumped on that one.

[Dinan]

so who is still holding OPTI ??


i can't find any info on a takeover or anything..... anyone got info on that...


just found this back on april 3rd

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/fp/Nexen+Opti+Canada+targeted+sands+deals/1461208/story.html

[SilverRex]

US dollar index broke down key support if my TA is right, we will soon see oil, gold at higher levels + stocks IMO

[Dinan]

did you change your HOU order?you buying in now/?

[SilverRex]

^ im still going to try and pick off 5.5 HOU 50 oil with a tight stop and see what happens, clearly we have rejection from 51.3 area again.

safe play is to wait till price can close above 51.3

[Dinan]

^^ it's coming down...... so what's your stop at?

[SilverRex]

^^

well oil hasnt hit my order yet, and if it doesnt get there no matter. but if it does I would use a mental stop and watching the price carefully, if it closes below 50 dollars onthe 1hr chart I will be out. That is if I have a position

[Dinan]

yeah it doesn't look like it will.. got as close as 9cents......

[SilverRex]

well the market has broke into new heights, oil will soon follow IMO

it could accelerate if shorts cover

[max_boost]

Well I got stopped out of DNDN earlier at $25. Almost 50% returns is good although I was hoping for $30+

I placed a buy order for HOU at $5.50 and missed so won't be chasing now I don't think.

[SilverRex]

^ you can either get in with a tight stop or

wait until it breaks 51.3-7, no one knows how much it will rally off there if the break comes thru, you just hope it will come down for a retest then

in 30 mins we will soon find out whats going on. IS the rally today simply a reflection of positive news coming out of the FED's mouth? or will there be a complete reversal?

[Dinan]

have any of the gold companies came out with earnings yet/??


gold is up but HGU not so much...

[SilverRex]

^ cant recall but its any moment this week and next week as well.

HGU is under performing relative to the HUI index, unfortunately its because of the weak US and strong loonie.

the bright side, HGU wont be hammer as much if the dollar gains strength so take your pick

10 more mins until FED announcement,

oil at 51.23 now, closing above 51.3 on 1 hour chart is bullish IMO

[Red@8]

If it does cross the $51.30 I think I will move up my order on HOU. Hopefully i can keep checking while i'm here in class.

[SilverRex]

looks like no major news from the FED, if anything it says it will not add more liquidity to the market which is short term bad news for inflation, and bad for gold. thus gold is selling off.

in the end I would say its a was a buy on rumor and sell on news.

with this oil still cannot close above 51.3 so we may have to wait until tomorrow ;)

[Red@8]

Thanks for posting that SilverRex.

Does anyone know where i can get realtime oil for example on my BB?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like no major news from the FED, if anything it says it will not add more liquidity to the market which is short term bad news for inflation, and bad for gold. thus gold is selling off.

in the end I would say its a was a buy on rumor and sell on news.

with this oil still cannot close above 51.3 so we may have to wait until tomorrow ;)

thats why gold was up 10$ and down to less then 1$......

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Red@8
Thanks for posting that SilverRex.

Does anyone know where i can get realtime oil for example on my BB?

i haven't tried on my bb yet but here
http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/


also can you trade with your bb?? who you with,, cause i'm with bmo and with my bold i can't set price limit, i can only by and sell on market price.....

[Red@8]

Originally posted by Dinan


i haven't tried on my bb yet but here
http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/


also can you trade with your bb?? who you with,, cause i'm with bmo and with my bold i can't set price limit, i can only by and sell on market price.....

Thanks for the nymex link. I have never tried trading on my BB.

[SilverRex]

apparently gold dipped, I guess you can either say it was trying to knock out some stops but 40 mins later it shot right back up. I have a feeling this rally isnt done yet

market isnt selling off as it should if it was bad news or sell on news

this could mean market is still wanting to head higher?

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex
apparently gold dipped, I guess you can either say it was trying to knock out some stops but 40 mins later it shot right back up. I have a feeling this rally isnt done yet

market isnt selling off as it should if it was bad news or sell on news

this could mean market is still wanting to head higher?

My buy order missed by 1 cent on HGU :(
I feel tsx will go to 10k and pause then I think we will start seeing a sell off again.

Edit: Anybody been watching/buying Moly and Uranium stocks?
Few I've been watching are TCM, UEX, UUU and DML.
TCM I hold but from way back when it was $16 or so dollars, its been steadily rising in price and has almost doubled in the last couple months from 4 to 8 dollars.

UEX has been on a tear in the last few days, not sure whats going on there as I've only been watching share price.

UUU I know maxboost bought into this a while back and they had some good things going for them. I hold this from a long time ago too but thinking of adding to my position.

DML has had lots of great things happen in the past few weeks, investments from over seas companies and this company has a strong backing with it's own resources. I picked a very small position yesterday in the RRSP and its up 20% today so I'm quite happy with that.

If anyone has any other insight on these companies it would be great to hear. Sorry I don't have any actual news or hard facts about the companies, mainly have just been watching the trend of the share prices and investing accordingly.

[Dinan]

yeah i missed my buy on HGU too, it went down and up to fast, just missed it, was putting a order while it was on 10.01 for 10.03 and it jumpt to like 10 by the time i sent it off, :facepalm:


now it's coming back down, but gold is still up!

you guys buying in today, or waiting ?

is gold going up with this rally?

[yoda124]

WTN (Western Cdn Coal)going nuts today...Call me nuts I bought 100k shares at 1.35

[KleanCord]

I had bought GCE before on a big run up, and it just stalled. I see that like WTN it is up today. Coking coal must be up, or steel must have a more bullish view.

Denison Mines and UUU are both up due to a spot price in Uranium turning the corner.
Check out Cameco (cco.to). It is the world leader in Uranium, very well run from what I hear, but I keep on wanting a pullback and haven't got one yet.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by djayz


My buy order missed by 1 cent on HGU :(
I feel tsx will go to 10k and pause then I think we will start seeing a sell off again.

Edit: Anybody been watching/buying Moly and Uranium stocks?
Few I've been watching are TCM, UEX, UUU and DML.
TCM I hold but from way back when it was $16 or so dollars, its been steadily rising in price and has almost doubled in the last couple months from 4 to 8 dollars.

UEX has been on a tear in the last few days, not sure whats going on there as I've only been watching share price.

UUU I know maxboost bought into this a while back and they had some good things going for them. I hold this from a long time ago too but thinking of adding to my position.

DML has had lots of great things happen in the past few weeks, investments from over seas companies and this company has a strong backing with it's own resources. I picked a very small position yesterday in the RRSP and its up 20% today so I'm quite happy with that.

If anyone has any other insight on these companies it would be great to hear. Sorry I don't have any actual news or hard facts about the companies, mainly have just been watching the trend of the share prices and investing accordingly.

Dines put out a buy on the Uraniums so that explains their spike today. The upcoming Super Uranium Bull lol

I had UUU in the low $2's, made 50% and sold it. I can't seem to hold anything longer than a couple weeks these days. I keep thinking the market is going to crash but it isn't; well not yet. UUU is now at $3.55 :nut:

I've made so many trades that I'm now in the $6.95 zone for RBC.:eek:

[KleanCord]

I'm slumping. I keep scraping gains here and there, but I am not getting any easy trades right now. You know the ones where you wake up in the morning and positive news has sent them on a run up. I keep missing the next thing.

Are you guys on other trader forums or other websites?

[guessboi]

I have been looking at UUU at like 1.90ish a few months ago. didn't pull the trigger. thinking that it will come down before i get in. how wrong was I... UUU is up up up ever since. :nut:

Anyways...I am hoping for a home run for my penny stock. AZA. I bought at 0.02 and is now around 0.055 - 0.07 the past week. 200% increase and I am not selling. I am waiting for a home run on this bad boy. :rofl:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by guessboi
I have been looking at UUU at like 1.90ish a few months ago. didn't pull the trigger. thinking that it will come down before i get in. how wrong was I... UUU is up up up ever since. :nut:

Anyways...I am hoping for a home run for my penny stock. AZA. I bought at 0.02 and is now around 0.055 - 0.07 the past week. 200% increase and I am not selling. I am waiting for a home run on this bad boy. :rofl:

nice, howmany did you buy if you don't mind? i want to give it a try too, want to see howmuch to put down...


i been watching LVS, that thing is crazy, it went from 1.6 to 7.85 in less then two months

i finally got in at 3.8 and sold at 5, and it's been going up and down, mostly up, i want to get back into it, waiting for a pull back, hope it goes down under 5 again..... and going to try and not touch it for a while.

anyone got LVS shares?

[yoda124]

Originally posted by guessboi
I have been looking at UUU at like 1.90ish a few months ago. didn't pull the trigger. thinking that it will come down before i get in. how wrong was I... UUU is up up up ever since. :nut:

Anyways...I am hoping for a home run for my penny stock. AZA. I bought at 0.02 and is now around 0.055 - 0.07 the past week. 200% increase and I am not selling. I am waiting for a home run on this bad boy. :rofl:

I had UUU back at 1.50 when I saw house 73 and 74 keep buying like there's no tomorrow.Too bad I sold early.Part of my research is trying to find stocks that they load up on.I do know they are Sprott Asset Management and I remember them do this on a few other stocks in the past that went to the moon.

[Nova316]

I have LVS
1500 @ 2.50 :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Nova316
I have LVS
1500 @ 2.50 :D

oh snap!!!!!:D

howlong you holding them for?



how does one get pre-market trading ability or after hours ???:dunno:

[troyl]

Originally posted by guessboi
I have been looking at UUU at like 1.90ish a few months ago. didn't pull the trigger. thinking that it will come down before i get in. how wrong was I... UUU is up up up ever since. :nut:

Anyways...I am hoping for a home run for my penny stock. AZA. I bought at 0.02 and is now around 0.055 - 0.07 the past week. 200% increase and I am not selling. I am waiting for a home run on this bad boy. :rofl:

Finally another AZA holder! I have been in since last year and have been averaging down here lately. Nice to see some action these past few days on drilling news. They are spudding this week, i think we should get news on this early next week.

[guessboi]

I averaged down aza 3 times...couple grand each time...but the bulk of my shares are in the 0.02 range. yeah I am waiting for more good news soon from the drilling. :love:

[SilverRex]

oil closed above 51.33 on the 1 hour chart, watch out

[Red@8]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil closed above 51.33 on the 1 hour chart, watch out

I was hoping to pick up HOU around ~$5.5x before that happend. So much for that idea!?!?! Looks like i will have to up my bid.

[max_boost]

Oh shit. Looks like I missed out on this round of HOU.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil closed above 51.33 on the 1 hour chart, watch out

what you changing your bit to now? :D




gold is down $9 :(

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Dinan


what you changing your bit to now? :D




gold is down $9 :(

im thinking of going in ay $5.70. but what are you going to do SR?

[SilverRex]

looking at the chart, even though oil closed above the important 51.3 however it does not appear it is rocketing like it should. perhaps it could either mean we Might see a drop first beforeing going higher as it is sort of overbought on some indicator

or not much investor pays attention to 51.3

if one is to remember back when the big trendline was at around 45, does anyone of you remember we all waited to short it? assuming it was resuming its down trend, well initially it did but it since then broke above 45 slightly only to drop 5 dollars before surging higher.

anyhow IMO I think oil has broken an important trend line which is 51.3. For day traders I would get in and have tops below 51 oil

for long traders I would at least have my stops on oil below 49.05 which is what oil needs to break in order to completely turn this around now as well as you also have to take the closing price and form another down trend line in case oil wants to test this instead but if this break is real then this will put 55-60 oil on the table.

update: oil testing 51.33 (at 50.88-51) let see if it can form a reversal here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil52.jpg

[Dinan]

^
Thanks for the info!


What you think about gold? Down more then 15$!

[SilverRex]

update. oil touched 50.21

maybe I may just get my 5.50 oil lol

going to open a small order here, if oil closes below 50 on the 1hr chart then i will be out

short term will turn bearish only if it closes below 880, which we are at, so let see what happens.

[Dinan]

i got some at 5.65 :nut:

[Proyecto2000]

wierd, my $5.70 order that i put in the morning never went thru. I guess its a good thing becuase I just set one at $5.55 now :nut:

[SilverRex]

in at 5.60, let see how she goes, my stop will be below oil 50 and if i am lucky enough to call it right and it moves back above 51.33, then I will move my stop to zero and this play will not be a short term play I will let it ride out with target at least around 55

[Red@8]

I got a $5.60 order in as well this morning but it has yet to fill.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Red@8
I got a $5.60 order in as well this morning but it has yet to fill.

oh how i got fucked like that with bmo few times :facepalm:

hope yours gets filled!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
in at 5.60, let see how she goes, my stop will be below oil 50 and if i am lucky enough to call it right and it moves back above 51.33, then I will move my stop to zero and this play will not be a short term play I will let it ride out with target at least around 55

thanks

i only bought 600 shares but better then nothing....


lets go 55 oil! :D

[SilverRex]

as disappointing as HGU have been in the last few days. Hold tight I have a feeling this is a fake out before a big run higher.:D

I think HGU anything below 10 is a good play


think of gold and oil are ready to make a major move but right before, shorts take it down to cover as well as taken out stops, so if this indeed a fake out, boy are we gifted with low prices :)

lets go oil and gold

[Red@8]

Originally posted by Dinan


oh how i got fucked like that with bmo few times :facepalm:

hope yours gets filled!

Didnt get the fill early. Oh well, I'll wait it out for now. Oil seems to be under $51 so far.

[Dinan]

^^^ thats too bad!!!


oil is over 51.30 :D


for howlong will see....

It looks like it doesn't like 51.30 ...........

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by Dinan


what you changing your bit to now? :D




gold is down $9 :(

So what are the thoughts on HGU right now?

[KleanCord]

Hard turn in the market. Let's see if this is gap filling, because if the dow S&P closes below 870 after starting above 875 I can only imagine this would be the start of the downturn.

[Dinan]

gold is moving up !


oil not so much..... SR, are you still holding?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Euro_Trash


So what are the thoughts on HGU right now?

Like SR said, anything under 10 is a gift, gold stocks are coming out with earning this week and next, should be good, I think HGU is oversold.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
gold is moving up !


oil not so much..... SR, are you still holding?

yup not exiting unless it closes below 50

as for hgu, yes earning is around the corners, and based on cyclical nature, next top in gold should be mid june so I intend to hold onto my hgu and will add more if it dips further

[max_boost]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oh shit. Looks like I missed out on this round of HOU.

I upped my order to $5.60 and it got filled.

Just say the word SR and I'll sell that shit. lol

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost


I upped my order to $5.60 and it got filled.

Just say the word SR and I'll sell that shit. lol


thats right, SR is the man!!!


if you had a crystal ball you could have sold at .80 and bought back in at .61 again :) lol

[SilverRex]

^

please dont give me too much credit, its pretty straight forward Technical analysis, plus I will be wrong eventually. TA works because everyone uses it for entry and exit.

right now we are not out of the woods yet oil is at 51.13, its the defining moment if this is the bottom for the next leg up or top

I can care less if oil rockets to 70 all in one shot. I'm more excited with gold instead. so hopefully gold can break aboe 918 and bring some life back to us longs

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


I upped my order to $5.60 and it got filled.

Just say the word SR and I'll sell that shit. lol

you lucky son of b@#, HOU low was at 5.59 lol dam

:D

[SilverRex]

by the way did anyone catch one article this morning suggesting if 6500 was the bottom for DOW, then this could be a inflationary recession, but if DOW takes off and moves back to 10-14k, this will be a indication of hyperinflation. why? simply because the economy is shrinking, and we are hardly near recovery. So the only way that explains the market moving higher and higher is simply because of inflation. Or a break down of the US dollar

and of course gold will certainly catch up quickly

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

please dont give me too much credit, its pretty straight forward Technical analysis, plus I will be wrong eventually. TA works because everyone uses it for entry and exit.

right now we are not out of the woods yet oil is at 51.13, its the defining moment if this is the bottom for the next leg up or top

I can care less if oil rockets to 70 all in one shot. I'm more excited with gold instead. so hopefully gold can break aboe 918 and bring some life back to us longs

I know I know. but still it’s nice that you take time and do the graphs for all of us and give your input!

Always looking forward for those graphs :)

Looks like gold won’t close below 880, at least today.

[max_boost]

I got stopped out of DNDN. Looks like the news two weeks ago was priced in. Oh well. I still made 40% overall on it. :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
I got stopped out of DNDN. Looks like the news two weeks ago was priced in. Oh well. I still made 40% overall on it. :D

you getting that bimmer with all that cash! :)

you planning to get back into it...

[davidI]

Anyone know what's going on with UUU today?

[max_boost]

We will all continue to make money providing the market keeps going up.

davidI, I noticed all the uranium stocks are down today. PNP, MGA, LAM, UEX, etc.

[djayz]

Originally posted by davidI
Anyone know what's going on with UUU today?

My guess would be profit taking, this thing has been going up 8-10% on a daily basis for a week. Might be a good time to jump in or maybe wait to see what tomorrow brings in this case.

[KleanCord]

This should be the exit for the shorts today.

So once again volume ramps up in the last 10 minutes of trading. Big battle between the profit takers and the short covers. Seeing how today went I think this is going to have to go to the bulls at the end of today.

Let's see how it ends up. I am hoping above 875.

[SilverRex]

unfortunately, most index closed below their previous peak.

so far no breakout, and oil too closed below 51.3

will watch it closely the next few days

fireworks most likely comes early next week with the stress test results

[KleanCord]

These last few days have been very hard to trade. Turns out I would have just been better holding throughout the week.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
unfortunately, most index closed below their previous peak.

so far no breakout, and oil too closed below 51.3

will watch it closely the next few days

fireworks most likely comes early next week with the stress test results

gold is not below 880, thats good, right?

lets hope the stress test gives gold some good news to move up!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KleanCord
These last few days have been very hard to trade. Turns out I would have just been better holding throughout the week.

what have you been trading lately ?


have you gotten back in HSE lol, look at it now holding 29$ !
i remember you had RIM at a really good price, still holding that....

i'm waiting for LVS to pull back, the stress test should give it a nice pull back or i'll wait for their earnings on wednesday....

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex
unfortunately, most index closed below their previous peak.

so far no breakout, and oil too closed below 51.3

will watch it closely the next few days

fireworks most likely comes early next week with the stress test results

I'm of the mind that the stress test results are already leaked and baked into the pie. They have been careful to slowly let out bits and pieces to not startle the market. If were going up on rumour, i think you know what happens when we get the actual news.

I think May 4 will be a non event.

I moved my stops, I'm not convinced this is a breakout quite yet. The DOW hit resistance and was rejected big time.

If it moves convincingly then I will go long, but for now, I remain short oil and financials.

To me there is just too much positivity going around. Everyone is on CNBC saying how things are way undervalues and stocks should rally to 10,000. etc.. etc.. It just doesn't 'feel' right.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30502539



Sell in May and go away involves getting out of the markets in the late spring and into the summer. Biriyni, however, points out that from 1962 to 2008 the S&P 500 was down only 51% of the time (May to August).

Things change, though, when you look at what happened during that period in a bull or a bear market.

In bull markets:

-S&P up 60% of time

-Average gain: 3.1%

In bear market:

-S&P down 83% of time

-Average decline: 7.1%

In other words, the summer continued the trend.

So are we in a bull or bear market right now? That is still unclear.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by broken_legs


I'm of the mind that the stress test results are already leaked and baked into the pie. They have been careful to slowly let out bits and pieces to not startle the market. If were going up on rumour, i think you know what happens when we get the actual news.

I think May 4 will be a non event.

I moved my stops, I'm not convinced this is a breakout quite yet. The DOW hit resistance and was rejected big time.

If it moves convincingly then I will go long, but for now, I remain short oil and financials.

To me there is just too much positivity going around. Everyone is on CNBC saying how things are way undervalues and stocks should rally to 10,000. etc.. etc.. It just doesn't 'feel' right.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30502539



I'm of the same mind. Unfortunately this last week it didn't help me at all. But another thing that changed my mind was looking back at 02-03. We went through the same period after the low trying to breakout and wouldn't break resistance. Then we shot up to ~930 only to finally peter out and head back down.

I can't help but feel that since everyone knows we are overbought, it doesn't matter. I do think this has to break 875 tomorrow. Fridays have typically been good and most of the opening gap downs have been met by buying, probably signaling there are people out there who see this rally as something to buy into for the meantime.

[Dinan]

So I just read the stress test are going to be postponed till the end of next week, the feds will announce the date tomorrow!

[SilverRex]

friday

so far everything wanted to breakout but ended up closing below its peaks technically.

chart wise, oil only has two ways to go, either closing above 51.3 to ensure a run up or closing below 50 (50.14 may do it) to ensure downside.

that will be exactly what I will be doing. Exit HOU if oil closes below 50 on the 1 hour chart. Hold my position if it does not and hope it breaks above 51.33 and stay there long enough to form a base that will eventually be the bottom to build onto 55 oil of course if the market has topped out, then oil will turn around.

if oil does close below 50 oil, then next leg down will hit around 48.70 which would be the last standing support and target price if the current breakdown is to occur. One can look at buying around under 49 with stop below 48.50 . breaking below this will bring her down to 44.

but no worries, so far oil is poking its head above 51, let see how she goes

all in all, it will follow the strength and weakness of the US dollar. So we will see what happens

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil53.jpg

as for gold its been a while since I have posted a chart here. we are at at very very important support level. clearly its been a while since gold became this clear. The 880 support is VERY important. a close below this on the 1hr chart means weakness again but the double bottom at 865 is only 15pts down so if I had stops I would ensure it is under 865 right now gold will need to fight and recapture above 902 in order keep bulls and the target of 950 in the picture within the next few weeks. Question is, is gold trying to bottom (double bottom) on 880 just like it did at 865? lets hope so

I think so, since silver has put in a very big reversal on the 1 hr chart. its been awhile since I last saw such big reversal. So lets go gold/silver.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold39.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver3.jpg

[SilverRex]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7WX63tWRnI

here is another reveiw of the gold/silver and gold share market. quick cap, the vol is light on the recent drop suggesting gold/silver is about to turn

[997TT]

i think i cursed gold when i rebought ...

Nice run for oil right before open $51 to $51.90 giving HOU a nice 4% pop at open. Let's hope this run continues ....

[Dinan]

yeah i bought in yesterday too..... thinking about getting some more todaay......




:nut:

[SilverRex]

im going to try and hold hou until at least 6.50 which is about 54.5 oil

as seen below, 54+ is about the upper channel, and previous peak, I suspect we will not break this on first try and will look for a pull back OR wait until it breaks 55 like it did with 51.3 before entry to confirm strength for further advance.

yes market could turn any time if it wish in that case we all should be up 5-6% I will move up my stop to zero. 51.3 should be a good support which is over our 5.6 entry, if it closes below then something else is going wrong

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil54.jpg