Official Short-term Investments Thread

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Dinan
wow, NG is on a move up, i hope it didn't hit your stop SR.......

I sold 3000 shares right at the candle stick before the rocket up to $6.60. I figured it was going to react this mornings surge... Oh well a profits a profit....

[997TT]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Hey 997TT, you have to thank me for selling PPHM. Seconds after I sold it at 0.909 and 0.929 it's now at 0.96 :-)

lol. I thought things like that only happened to me.

[DRKM]

So what do y ou guys think about holding HNU over the weekend? I bought in again a little later but my returns are not so swell...

[SilverRex]

according to my source oil is close to if not near topping out as EW suggest its near the final stages of completing a wave 5. the stock market in a similar manner is looking like a top as well. By no means current levels are not suitable to go longs even if the market has one more gap higher.

either start thinking short or dont sit and wait

[Dinan]

SR are you still on HNU? So since gold closed under 941, does this mean the US is about to bounce back? Taking oil,NG,oil and everything down?

[SilverRex]

^ yes it would appear so

[Canmorite]

T.ABT looking good. Big vol friday but didn't close at high.

[slick2404]

anyone Know where i can find the afterhours trading on NG?

[SilverRex]

Monday

Well folks looks like the US dollar index rally means business and unless it suddenly starts to collasp technically, its not looking good for the market.

looking at the US dollar not only was it unable to sustain below 79.50 which was important to confirm its down leg, but it quickly retrace all the way back up breaking key trendlines and now back above its 61.8% retracement which means its back in an up trend.

Knowing that I do expect a little wee bit upside then it should come back down. This is early indication that the overall market is about to cave in (turning soon)

notice I drew the circle as the gap needs to be filled and I suspect we will at least come back down to that level.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061509.jpg

looking at oil its still very much within its up trend channel like always for the past few weeks I Feel it is topping out soon and could put in possibly one more push higher perhaps a double top at 73? 73-75? as how the US dollar is beggining to rally more seriously, oil will soon find a wall I'll be thinking short if it gets higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061509.jpg

and for gold, well if you think about it it kind plays opposite to the US dollar index in most ways. And as you can see the fear of a H&S pattern has begun as it closed below its all important neckline at around 941 I suspect a new down trend as begun for gold meaning investors will be shorting on rallies) this H&S has a target all the way back to 900 and as you can see its forming a very sharp descninding wedge so we will see possibly 10 dollar bounces here and there starting with support around 928-931 area. I expect it to bottom near term for a bounce back to 941-955. Unless it can get above 960 soon and fast otherwise gold is possilby finished making new highs for the short term. And if your following the LT for gold as I do, even though im bullish over all, it hurts to say this but getting below 900 would start to deminish hopes that we are in breakout above 1000. then what it tells me is gold could very well be headed for a retrace to much lower levels before it goes much higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061509.jpg

as shown here bull side would call for gold to immediately make new highs once it completes its retracement. or it could stagger side ways further in a range between 850-950 before a real breakout and of course the worse case scenario with gold collasping to 655 but yet forming a huge flag pattern that will break out to the upside. I'm not sure which one I want more because if gold was to touch 650 then break out 1000, not only would that give us a very big buying opportunity but it also will push gold to much much higher prices given its consolidation, time frame and support. but that will mean we are headed to another deflationary scare that would allow for new lows in the DOW and oil, and that could spell disaster in the economy. I would rather much wish for a hyperinflationary setting now as so most of us still have our jobs.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldbig.jpg

[SilverRex]

for NG

picked up a good article/chart that suggest, if we look at how the USO fund did when oil was in the 30s there is quite a similarities between the two USO and the NG fund UNG

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/6-14cv/3ActiveTradingPartnersJune14.jpg

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/6-14cv/4ActiveTradingPartnersJune14.jpg


and for oil look what happen it broke to the down side before rising in to a big uptrend

http://goldseek.com/news/2009/6-14cv/5ActiveTradingPartnersJune14.jpg


therefore I conclude, lets wait and see what happens. I'll change my mind if it breaks over 4 dollar and sustain then look for buying supports otherwise anticipate a break to lower levels which means NG under 3 dollars possibly low 2 dollars before making a huge run like oil did

[997TT]

UUU news

Russia to buy stake in Uranium One

Reuters
June 15, 2009


Stock prices are delayed 15 minutes. Source: Globe and Mail.
Russia's state-owned nuclear company Rosatom Corp. is acquiring 17 percent of Uranium One in exchange for a 50-percent stake of a Kazakh mine.

The deal will see Toronto's Uranium One take a stake in the Karatau Uranium mine in a cash and stock deal worth $385 million US, a move that is intended to boost its output.

The purchase price will be paid to Rosatom’s ARMZ Uranium Holding Co. by issuing 117 million common shares of Uranium One and a cash payment of $90 million.

Based on Friday's closing price, Uranium One is offering about $331 million worth of stock in the deal.

Uranium One, which is based in Vancouver and Johannesburg and owns assets in the Central Asian country, now expects 2010 production of 7.5 million pounds of uranium after closing the deal, up about 35 percent from its earlier guidance of 5.6 million pounds.

The purchase agreement also provides for a contingent payment of up to $60 million to JSC Atomredmetzoloto, payable in three equal tranches.

The Canadian company has assets in the United States, Australia and South Africa, but has focused its efforts in Kazakhstan, which is home to a fifth of the world's uranium reserves and boasts lower costs than other regions.

[Dinan]

That's really good news for NG! hope it plays out like that! if anything in the mid 5`s at least i would be happy.....

today it had a nice bounce up......

[bigbadboss101]

HNU moves fast when it wants to intraday!

[Dinan]

only NG is holding up,

[SilverRex]

US dollar just hit critical zone, so is gold I expect gold will start to rebound after touching 928 which is the 50% retracement

[997TT]

SR, would you buy HND at $9?

[Dinan]

damn! NG is on the move!!!!

just drop already.....:D

[KRZY403]

good idea to buy some hou now?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KRZY403
good idea to buy some hou now?

for swing trade you can try to go long but make sure stops below today's low

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
SR, would you buy HND at $9?

the thing about NG it can swing violently both ways so if you can some how manage to place a good stop loss you can give it a try since NG is near its or at a down trend line, if the general market is ready to cave, it should technically bring NG down.

for myself my conservative safer move is to wait until NG breaks below 3 dollars

[Dinan]

^^^^^ i guess your stop loss hit the other....

i remember you saying this few weeks back, and now with the charts you posted looks like it shall happen!:D (lets hope)

lets just hope it set a lower high, and we should be good.....

[SilverRex]

picked up some HGU below 11 I expect the hui index to put in a bounce in the 330s area back to 360s area going after 12.50 HGU

euro just put in a 1 hour reverse hammer on a sharp decline. gold is flerting with its 50% retracement at 928 I expect market will either rally near end of day or tomorrow as DOW is sitting just below its 200 EMA and for bulls, its a buy back area. thinking gold is oversold a bit here but over all I think trend has turned bearish. its all about swings trade at the moment.

[Dinan]

so whats the exit target price for HGU ...... 12$ ?

[Dinan]

i'm going to try hgu too, haven't bought that in a while......

[max_boost]

Nice day for HNU and GAS. Debating if I should sell? :nut: :dunno:

[SilverRex]

ok as from the chart yesterday, things are playing out technically the way it should. the US dollar index made a double top around 81.3 and since has been coming down. Remember I say it may want to come down to fill the gap (circle area) and so it has reached there or almost completely. I expect if this US rally has legs it should find a bottom soon between 80-80.40 and make another run higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061609.jpg

This is will put gold and oil to the ultimate test.

and for gold, it has rally off 928 as expected, it did dip lower to 925 but no matter if is now trading at 938 as I write this. Key level resistance to watch is 941-943, if 928 is suppose to be a big buying level, then gold has to get above 941 and to confirm gold is back on the bull train, it needs to close above 950 otherwise over all gold is bearish and I expect as US dollar index turns around so will gold.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061609.jpg

And for oil, not much happen since yesterday other then the fact it rally off the 100 EMA level and has broken a short term down trend line with momentum over 72, I was expecting it to at least rally one more time and I would suggest a good shorting opportuniting between 73-75 (assuming the US dollar index is on an up trend. The market should rally off from yesterday's lows, but will we go higher? we will see but I feel we are indeed coming very close to the end of the 3+ month rally and I cant rule out it may still want to push a bit higher to trap bulls so play safely.

[Dinan]

So where would you look to get out of HGU?

[SilverRex]

^I was hoping to at last into the 12s and it have to see how strong the market rally this morning or today. so far gold is having trouble eve getting over 940.

if you get in below 11 yesterday, we all should be up, I'll use my entry as my stop loss and see how far it will take us

[Dinan]

thanks SR, keep us updated.......:D


damn NG is looking strong today too.....:nut:

[SilverRex]

not feeling good about gold, exited hgu at 11.28

picked up some HOD under 11 I feel we are close to a top on oil. I will add another position if oil ever gets to 74-75 with a target back to 64-65

[Dinan]

i'm out too, thanks SR.....


this is the first time you buying HOD! hope it drags NG down too :)

[civic_rida]

bought hou yesterday sold it today
Sold hgu also
Have a buy order for hod at 10.80

[KRZY403]

i've noticed that everytime i buy hod i always lose money...

[Dinan]

dunno if should buy HOD lol... oil is crazy, but if SR is then, why not.....

[Z_Fan]

I wasn't reading the thread but I sold my HGU at 11.48 just recently.

I'm not sure about that choice, but we'll see what happens. I'm thinking about HOD again too.

[civic_rida]

set your stops. Chasing oil is not fun.

[civic_rida]

In hod at 10.85

[Red@8]

Just sold my HGU @ 11.45.

Just picked up HOD @10.89.

[Dinan]

alright... let me get in some HOD too, why not...

[KRZY403]

i wonder how i managed to get in on hod at todays high of 11..... fuck me

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KRZY403
i wonder how i managed to get in on hod at todays high of 11..... fuck me

thats not bad man, you can never get the low, few cents wont make or break you:)

[civic_rida]

depends how much your playing with.

[Z_Fan]

Yikes, I bought HOD too. Guess that means you guys are all fucked now. Gonna lose a bunch of cash. ;)

[Dinan]

lol... i guess i'm the only one thats not in yet.


NG is coming back down :D

[badlivertt]

Hmm... my gas trader buddy just fwd me this. interesting read.

Subject: FW: Hot Natural Gas ETF Faces Trading Snag



Good read...


> NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--One of the hottest investments on Wall Street
> may have gotten too big for its own good.
>
> With investors betting on rising gas prices, assets in the United
> States Natural Gas Fund
> (UNG) recently swelled to almost $3.7 billion from about $670 million
> in February, even sparking fears it could be disrupting the futures
> market.
>
> Now the popular exchange-traded fund is days away from another
> potential problem: Funds that hold commodities typically face stiff
> restrictions on the number of shares they can issue to meet investor
> demand, and United States Natural Gas is running out fast. Securities
> and Exchange Commission filings show managers want to increase the
> number of shares available nearly 10-fold. But such requests can take
> weeks and there is no telling when the SEC will act.
>
> If the fund can't issue enough shares to meet investor demand, its
> shares could begin trading at prices higher than the underlying value
> of their holdings, breaking a key promise ETFs make to investors and
> possibly influencing prices in the natural-gas futures markets.
>
> Exchange-traded funds resemble open-end mutual funds but trade on an

> exchange like a stock.
> The issue is the latest in a string of surprises that have trailed
> more exotic types of ETF, especially ones that hold commodities. It
> also highlights the friction between ETF firms and regulators, such as

> the SEC, whom fund company executives often complain misunderstand and

> unnecessarily delay many requests regarding ETFs.
>
> SEC spokesman John Heine declined to comment directly on the case of

> the natural gas fund but said the Commission is sensitive to issuers'
> time constraints.
>
> The SEC's position involves trade-offs, says Michael Berenson, a
> securities lawyer at Morgan Lews in Washington. If the regulator
> ignores the ETF's predicament, it could risk harming the fund's
> shareholders. But rushing might not be fair to other ETF firms with
> business before the SEC. "It puts everyone else back in the queue," he

[Z_Fan]

Old man double post.

[Z_Fan]

LOL I bought back in to HGU with a tight stop and got stopped out already.

Up on HOD a few hundred bucks though, with a tight trailing stop to ensure I make a couple hundred bucks even after recovering what I lost in 10 minutes on HGU. So it's all good. ;)

Sucks if you didn't sell HGU this morning at 11.45-11.50 range though as there was lots of opportunity. Maybe it'll rebound quickly.

Narrowly missed a bullet with HNU as I was gonna buy 1000 shares of it this morning at 7.73 and then I thought, nah, wait a little bit and see what happens. ;)

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Dinan
lol... i guess i'm the only one thats not in yet.


NG is coming back down :D

after my HOD run, I will not touch. In at $36 out at $21 :rofl:

[Z_Fan]

Yeah, well, looks to me if you sold at $21, it could have been a lot worse...even though that was already bad enough.

Buying it at $11 this morning for whomever that was doesn't look so bad right now. It's up...

[KRZY403]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Yeah, well, looks to me if you sold at $21, it could have been a lot worse...even though that was already bad enough.

Buying it at $11 this morning for whomever that was doesn't look so bad right now. It's up...


i'm not even gonna say what i did once hod got back to $11...

[Z_Fan]

I just got stopped out of HOD. I was setting trailing stops all the way up and decided to bump it up to 11.40 and I got stopped out at 11.39 and 11.38.

Either way, I bought it at 10:50A and sold it at 01:28P and made $600.00 so I guess I can not complain right. :poosie:

Of course, now that I am out it will really go up up up.

[Dinan]

ohh man, don't tell me you sold at even......

[Z_Fan]

Fucking HEB. Had I not lost a chunk of coin on that I'd be doing OK. Made some of it back on HOD and HGU today though, so that's nice...and I'm out of both so the $1.2k profit overnight basically makes me happy. I'm gonna call that a day, cuz I know if I keep making trades today, I'm gonna lose it all.

I could easily lose that much in a day. No problem. So I'm gonna go for a drive. :dunno:

[civic_rida]

hod 10.85 sold at 11.35
Thanks sr.

[KRZY403]

Originally posted by Dinan
ohh man, don't tell me you sold at even......

Yea... hoping that it would go back down to 10.85... like I said earlier im always losing on hod. such bad luck

Anyone holding hod overnight?

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Yeah, well, looks to me if you sold at $21, it could have been a lot worse...even though that was already bad enough.


haha yeah I remember when I was always comming and asking you guys. "so any thoughts on HOD today?" and people would say "you idiot we told you tell sell yesterday and the day before!"

good times :D

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Yeah, well, looks to me if you sold at $21, it could have been a lot worse...even though that was already bad enough.


haha yeah I remember when I was always comming and asking you guys. "so any thoughts on HOD today?" and people would say "you idiot we told you tell sell yesterday and the day before!"

good times :D

[Red@8]

Just sold out of HOD @ $11.37

[RX_EVOLV]

Trying to catch a quick bounce for oil @ $70.

gold (HGU) looks pretty good.. hmm..

[Dinan]

looks like SR got right on again!!!!

the US dollar bounced off 80.40 3 times and it looks like it has gone higher each time.....




gold
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold_update_20090615/?campaignid=3

US Dollar
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/dollar_index_200906/?campaignid=3


what you guys think?

[SilverRex]

ok so yesterday was a pretty solid day as things played out.

we look at oil first, after shorting oil at around 72.2 im happy to be in the green and short term target im going for 68-69 as that is the last up trend line support. clearly it has broken down from its medium term trend channel and going after the next (green line) I expect oil to bounce when if it does hit between 68-69 so opportunity for a swing trade here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil61709.jpg

looking at gold, yesterdays showing is pretty weak as it could even hit the 941 resistance. so sell pressure is enormous and is currently near testing 928 support once again. however unless it breaks below 927, there is still a chance that gold wants to at least push for a run back to 941-947. Obviously it will depend how the US dollar react (read the last chart) if gold breaks below 927 then next support is 913-918 (which is in a way gold's last stand) which would be a good swing trade here. But if gold manages to suddenly surge and make a run for 941+ it should viewed as a bearish opportunity

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061709.jpg

and looking at the US dollar index, so far its looking bullish and if the last drop to 79.19 was simply an ABC retracement correction, then marking a 5 wave up move we are should be in a 5th wave bringing the US dollar index to a newer high above 81.50 notice the double bottom at 80.40 as EW theory suggest wave 4 break below wave 1.

So do we have a clear break above 80.90 today? or will the neck trend line hold and force it to consolidate further? we will find out soon enough.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061709.jpg

as for NG i was surprise with the big up move, didnt expect that when everything was dropping. However it did quickly get rejected by the recent high around 4.50s and shot back to close to 4.00, its also in a key moment as it would appear its coming down to retest the break out point at around 4.05s but if it breaks lower and breaks below 3.75 then watch out, this could signal a double top at 4.50s and next target area is below 3.00

[Dinan]

So would you play the 4.05 support for NG for a quick flip?


Did you happen to watch the video's I posted? They bullish on gold and bearish on the US,

[997TT]

great call on HOD SR. I didn't buy b/c i seem to get burnt everytime i short a commodity.

probably the reason HOD did so well. lol

[KRZY403]

finally a profit from hod today. should i get some hou soon?

[max_boost]

Got fucked on HOU lol

Down on everything :(

Is this the correction? 9000 TSX? ;)

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost
Got fucked on HOU lol

Down on everything :(

Is this the correction? 9000 TSX? ;)

I sure hope so, sitting on lots of cash now :D

[Dinan]

^^^ so what would you buy??? what you have your eye on?? xiu??

[djayz]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^^ so what would you buy??? what you have your eye on?? xiu??

Commodities, gold, oil, n.gas.

Just itching to enter in on gold, nat.gas is on a run right now so will wait for a pullback, and oil, haven't been in that for a long time and won't be in it until I see some solid direction.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by djayz


Commodities, gold, oil, n.gas.

Just itching to enter in on gold, nat.gas is on a run right now so will wait for a pullback, and oil, haven't been in that for a long time and won't be in it until I see some solid direction.

yeah, i'm waiting for nat gas too... hope it dips under 4$..... bbut it's looking strong so far....

[max_boost]

Whew, starting to reverse course a bit here. :D

Yes, my master plan is to take a lump sum and plow it into XIU when the time is right.

[thrasher22]

Good thing BBD.B has been pulling its weight to make up for my losses on XIU, I bought in at 16.18 :facepalm:

[max_boost]

That's not bad at all. 5% move up on the TSX and you'll be even again. Think long term on this one. Think 15,000 TSX hahaha

[RX_EVOLV]

made a few quick successful flips w/ HOU and HNU. Just bought some HGU at 11.10, so far it's looking decent, hopefully big move tmr

[SilverRex]

Today's action may get abit noisy and some charts are starting to consolidate further, looking at oil, clearly it bounced off 69 as a text book setup which met my initial down leg target as well as a very good swing trade up, now its in the middle between two trend lines so either oil will break above 72.50 and push higher or it will collasp and break 70 for good which will become resistance. So watch the up trend line carefully. I do expect we are very near a top therefore any thing above 72 should be viewed as a shorting opportunity.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061809.jpg

and for gold, it took awhile but it finally did hit the 941-945 area as it should and so far has clearly been rejected to the down side. I expect max upside is 950 with target to next support low at 913-918. Some cycle analysis calls for a bottom next week, so perhaps we will see 913-918 next week?

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061809.jpg

not much change on the US dollar index other than it came down further and made a double bottom at around 80.10.

overall expect swings in both directions until market breaksout either side.

[Dinan]

What you think about NG? you still see it going under 4$ or even 3$ ?



lets hope for a big build up in inventory today....;.


well it`s dropping, but how long...?

[SilverRex]

euro is crashing down. only matter of time to bring the rest of the market with it.

edit: looks like the US dollar rally bias is correct, the euro is crashing harder than I thought its at a critical trendline breaking it would send everything off the cliff imo.

gold is coming down and I expect oil to follow soon. Going to short oil here at around 71.5 and will add to my position if it gets above 72 by chance.

[SilverRex]

euro just broke the up trendline, while its trying to make a push back above it, either way, sell pressure is heavy I Expect the US dollar index will soon reflect it has punched upward. what does this mean?

weak euro = strong US dollar = weak oil = weak stock market = weak gold

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro061809.jpg

[djayz]

Crap and I just bought gold (HGU) this morning at 11.10 :(

[Dinan]

Originally posted by djayz
Crap and I just bought oil this morning at 11.10 :(

you bought the right one, HOD, :thumbsup:

[KRZY403]

hmm can't buy any hod for some reason


nvm got it

[djayz]

Originally posted by Dinan


you bought the right one, HOD, :thumbsup:

Haha I accidentally typed oil instead of gold(HGU) but yah back to disappointment down to 10.85:(

[SilverRex]

well what did ya know euro did managed to close above the trendline, so I guess their safe for another day.

gold touched 930 if you look at the daily chart its right up against an uptrend line that goes back to 865 and 681, my STOCH indicator is nearly oversold on the daily chart. I will not rule out we could be close to a short term bottom. the 930 area has not became a make or break area. So either gold will find some more head room from here or we will see 918 soon.

[Dinan]

maybe good time for another good swing trade on hgu?


in at 10.87 ......


what you think SR? another bounce off 927????


maybe it wasn`t such a good idea after all......:nut:

[SilverRex]

Friday you can say more or less this week was more of a side way grind than anything else.

looking at oil, it appears it has broke above the down trendline, but then again that is because the chart rolled over to next's month's contract price. as for HOU/HOD we've been trading the roll over almost 10days ago.

While it appears breaking this trendline will push price higher 75?

but keep in mind a few things. Stochastic is oversold and the higher level chart daily and 8 hour I see stochastic divergence (bearishness)

so at any moment things could suddenly turn south, we just dont know where the exact top is.

some good numbers now that price is at around 72.4

I would suggest if price ever got to 73.8 or 75 those are good place to think short. or of course it could start to break down now which I do not mind as I have opened a position. think of anything under 11 dollar for HOD should look pretty good a few weeks from now.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061909.jpg

and for the US dollar index which everything is trading against it. it briefly broke out the down trend line and since has been slowly hanging along. I can only expect it to rally higher, but bottom size potentially could be somewhere near 80. and if it does go there, then that would push oil, stocks and gold higher which imo would be a good fake rally.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061909.jpg

gold hasnt changed much been range bound between 930-940, you can say a break either direction would set the tone such as below 927 or above 943. until then you can try to swing trade at those level with tight stop

[Dinan]

got out of HGU, smal profit... thanks SR :thumbsup:

[89coupe]

Anyone been following Disenco Energy PLC (DIS) on the Venture?

I've been hearing some rumors that it could really take off here.

Anyone?

I'm gambling:bigpimp:

Company website.

www.disenco.com

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 89coupe
Anyone been following Disenco Energy PLC (DIS) on the Venture?

I've been hearing some rumors that it could really take off here.

Anyone?

I'm gambling:bigpimp:

where have you heard this? any reason why it should?



lets hope NG breaks $4.05.....:guns:

[RX_EVOLV]

well Oil just took a shit. HOD looking good

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 89coupe
Anyone been following Disenco Energy PLC (DIS) on the Venture?

I've been hearing some rumors that it could really take off here.

Anyone?

I'm gambling:bigpimp:

Company website.

www.disenco.com

In poker terms what are we looking at? gutshot? open ender? open ender/flush draw? coin flip? 4:1 w/dominant pair hehe:rofl: :bigpimp:

Collectively we can go in and rally this stock up, you spread the word, the rest of us get out. :bigpimp:

[Dinan]

yeah pump and dump!!! lol


NG went under 4.05 few times!!!!!


lets hope it breaks down!

[SilverRex]

wow oil is collasping, having seen such down bar on the 1hr chart since oil started rally off 45 dollars. that is like 2+ months ago

let see if the 72+ oil was the top, my target is 65, then exit and short again if it rallies back to 67-69 with next target to 60

[max_boost]

SR, that's very bearish outlook!

Could this lead to a broader decline in the stock market?

[SilverRex]

^ you bet

look at oil its been quite a long time since we have such a drop

and lesson today, never go against divergence. (denote in red line) divergence on such high level chart only means one thing - big directional movement coming. Oil is right at a very long uptrend, if we break this, then it has confirmed short on rallies for oil until we see a bottom. I say 55 a good heathy target but below that would be diasterous. My source EW buddie calling 10 dollar oil, I hope that doesnt happen because that would mean panic number two coming

even if oil was to suddenly reverse and punched to 75 I view it as a even bigger divergence and a excellent shorting opporunity.

oil usually is a step ahead of the market, when oil made its move back after it dip to 35 for the last time, the market began a multi month rally.

so yes if oil dips so will the market. I continue to stress we are going to see some strength in the US dollar which is bad for oil, the market and perhaps gold but gold is a tricky one since if enough people jump in as a safe haven then it could actually do some interesting things this summer. but we'll see, one chart at a time.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oiltoday.jpg

[Dinan]

there goes NG!!!! YES!!!!



so it needs to close under 4.05?

[SilverRex]

im not sure if anyone follows COT reports. but back when the market was dropping, COT the commitment of trader or commerical traders (the big guys) were going long while the speculative trader like you and I was selling and going short. the commericals went to the extreme (bullish)

and when they started to turn around, thats when the market bottomed and started heading up.

so now the report has suggested the commericals are shorting the market to the extreme while the spec are long. and they have been going to extreme divergence, so its nearly time both will start to reverse course which imo will see a complete reverse of the market

hate it or love it with these report, they are usually right but timing is the trick.

the DOW after breaking pass 8600 you can clearly see it became a support, but lately it broke below and this morning we tested it twice, made a double top at 8600 and crashed back down to 8500s. if I was a betting man im starting to feel the market sentiment has turned bearish. so its short on rallies until a support is found.

[89coupe]

Originally posted by max_boost


In poker terms what are we looking at? gutshot? open ender? open ender/flush draw? coin flip? 4:1 w/dominant pair hehe:rofl: :bigpimp:

Collectively we can go in and rally this stock up, you spread the word, the rest of us get out. :bigpimp:

Royal Flush Draw ;)

Not guts no glory.....ALL IN! :bigpimp:

[Dinan]

so NG closed below 4.05...... thats good i take it

[oceanblue]

so can anybody give a quick crash course on the charts, like how to read the diagonal lines and what they mean for buying?

i remember reading it somewhere here once, but after alot of random pages of reading, i couldnt find it..

another stupid question....
how does this go again, hou will rise when oils price rise, but hod will drop..or is it vice versa...
so i guess its the same for nat gas, it rises and hnu rises, but hnd drops..

i do apologize if these are stupid questions

[davidI]

These 2x ETFs aren't necessarily the greatest thing to trade unless you've spent some time following them.

HOU 2x bull oil
HOD 2x bear oil
HNU 2x bull NG
HND 2x bear NG

Simply, on a given day, if oil goes up 3% HOU would theoretically go up ~6% HOD would go down 6%.