Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

ok monday

interesting day it indeed because Jun 22 is another turn cycle but what will be the turning point?

looking at oil this morning, it has started to come down further as shorting at 72+ as I mention last week was indeed starting to make me look like a genius but I must give some credit to luck as TA doesnt always work every single time (I guess most of the time is good enough)

you can clearly see oil HAS broken a very important up trendline that has been holding oil up since it started this run back when oil was at 45. This is quite siginificant imo and while I do not rule out oil could easily rally a few dollars higher to re-test the broken trendline that now becomes resistance. If that is the case it should be taken as a good shorting re-entry point. until then, I believe oil has and should have just officially became a short on rallies type enviorment. nearest target would suggest the 38% fibo which is at around 63. Obviously I do not anticipate that it will drop like a brick as the 1 hour stoch is heavily oversold. But if it does head another pt or two lower I Would exit my 72 oil short and look for a pull back before shorting again. Gain bias is down. And the market is ready to open down as well. most likely DOW will be breaking down below 8500 with next key target around 8400 however the more important number is probablly around 8315 if it closes below this again then this would trigger more bearish outlook for DOW watchers, but other indicators like gold and oil has already began their technical breakdown

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062209.jpg

and for gold, same situation, it has driven further down touching 922 this morning once it broke the short term uptrend line (in red) while gold too can suddenly rally back higher but the current view is very bearish and any significant rally will be a good shorting as well, next target to reach which could offer a good swing trade is 913-918.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062209.jpg


right now for NG, chart looks like a double top formatation at around 4.57 which unless taken out, I still view NG a bad play for long term. but if it dips to about low 4.0xs I would say its a good swing point, but if NG was to re-break below 4 dollars, this could be a start of another break down leg that could lead it straight to below 3 dollars.

update: so the announcement that the world bank has just cut its 2009 growth forecast will only add to the selling pressure. Nice

[Rat Fink]

.

[Red@8]

Wow oil taking beating. Go HOD.

I wont be at the comp today either for the morning. I see HOD already at $12.3X.

Think I'm gonna wait it out til the late morning before I do anything with it.

[SilverRex]

HGU at 10.80, may be thinking long for a good swing trade if it dips any lower, gold is at 918 near the 913 62% fibo retracement I expect (regardless gold is indeed in a downtrend) should bounce and bottom out for the time being.

therefore I think hgu in the 10s or mid 10s is a good swing trade

[Dinan]

what about oil?? could there be a bounce back for tomorrow?


damn.... TSX is down over 300points:eek:



NG is getting closer to 6$.... is under 6 a still good buy SR?

[SilverRex]

I expect the DOW to rally at around 8375-8400

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
what about oil?? could there be a bounce back for tomorrow?


damn.... TSX is down over 300points:eek:



NG is getting closer to 6$.... is under 6 a still good buy SR?

use NG price, if NG get close to 4 bucks, it should be a good swing trade

sold my HOD at 12.50 and switch to HGU at 10.61, thinking gold should be close to a bottom good bounce here hui at 321 (bottom side should not dip lower than 318 for a bounce)

while trend is down for oil but im going to take my chance cash in on my 12% gain and look for a higher oil to short again

[Dinan]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by SilverRex


use NG price, if NG get close to 4 bucks, it should be a good swing trade [/QUOTE


it's at 3.90 now.......or am i looking at a different contract??

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
[QUOTE]Originally posted by SilverRex


use NG price, if NG get close to 4 bucks, it should be a good swing trade [/QUOTE


it's at 3.90 now.......or am i looking at a different contract??

you might be looking at the current month price as price should have been rolling over to next month. price should be at around 4.14 I think

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


you might be looking at the current month price as price should have been rolling over to next month. price should be at around 4.14 I think


ohhh okay, so it's the NGQ9 contract... it's at 4.03


okay so i got in at 6.20, NG about 4..0...... what would be a good exit point?

thkanks

[Z_Fan]

Still holding my HOD but have a fairly tight stop set so if it dips I'll be out with my 15.5% profit even at my stop number. :poosie:

Bought a 1000 shares so I'm happy with that since I just bought it the other day...

HGU I sold mine at 11.38 on Friday and it went to 11.55 close but I was hopeful it was gonna go down. Bought back in this morning at 10.7x and hope it rebounds nicely.

Got screwed on HNU though. Sold half my shares at a .90 loss per share. Ugh. Good thing I only had 1000 shares. Still have 500 shares of this and will rebuy my shares if it sees the $5.9x range for HNU.

[civic_rida]

I went and bought XIU . im an idiot lol :banghead:
Who buys XIU

[Z_Fan]

Just checked out of HOD with $1,680.10 profit.

I'm gonna follow Rex's footsteps here and put some more in to HGU.

Don't fail me Rex! I've got about $100,000.00 of losses to recover in the market. :nut: :devil:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Just checked out of HOD with $1,680.10 profit.

I'm gonna follow Rex's footsteps here and put some more in to HGU.

Don't fail me Rex! I've got about $100,000.00 of losses to recover in the market. :nut: :devil:

are you serious guy? damn that's a lot! sorry to hear that....

[max_boost]

Good call on things SR.

Oil dropped, markets are down, just like you said haha

civic_rida, don't worry about XIU, it'll come back. If it doesn't come back, then no one is going to make any money lol

[Red@8]

Just got out of HOD @ $12.65

Just got in HGU @ $10.59

[Z_Fan]

There are people who have lost more ... in this thread ...

Seriously.

:poosie:

[Dinan]

ohh wow:eek:


lets hope for a bounce back up tomorrow and sell HNU and HGU :)

[997TT]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
There are people who have lost more ... in this thread ...

Seriously.

:poosie:

lol .. .man why do you have to go there.

I'm in HGU this morning too ... need SR to deliver here. Got a luxury car invested in this stock as i'm in serious need of some gains.

[thrasher22]

Originally posted by max_boost
civic_rida, don't worry about XIU, it'll come back. If it doesn't come back, then no one is going to make any money lol
:werd:

If XIU or any good index fund is down and you have a stock that is making money, you're in the minority ;)
It should be a long term hold anyways

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT


lol .. .man why do you have to go there.

I'm in HGU this morning too ... need SR to deliver here. Got a luxury car invested in this stock as i'm in serious need of some gains.

Man dont tell me these things, its going to give me pressure trying to perform every time and I know I Cant be right every single time.

its not like I get to share a piece of the pie here, if things go sour I wont be able to sleep at night if some one lost a lot of money because of me.

just be smart with your entry and exit, have a plan 3% or 5% stop. take profit 10% or 15% move your stop if your up 5%+ as an example. Dont chase if price level is too high if it doesnt get to your price range then dont trade. There are plenty of opportunities every day. Market moves in cycles not straight up or down.

[997TT]

^
dawg, no pressure. Trust me i can take my capital losses with the best of them.

How about i give you $100k and we work out a commision structure? Then you can get a piece of the pie.

You should become a broker (i'm assuming your not my bad if you are) ... cause your damn good at what you do.

[Dinan]

no one knows for sure what will happen, but your pretty damn close :)


always like to see those charts and your analysis...... on that note, what would be a good exit point for HGU and HNU....




Thanks:thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
no one knows for sure what will happen, but your pretty damn close :)


always like to see those charts and your analysis...... on that note, what would be a good exit point for HGU and HNU....




Thanks:thumbsup:

HGU im thinking if the 320 is the bottom for the hui index, then the 404 to 320 drop I'll use the 38% fibo as my target, that should translate to about 12-12.50 HGU excluding CAD exchange influences.

and for NG, phuck, its so volatile, I'll be out if I hit my average 10% minium requirement

[SilverRex]

oil hovering around 67. this a previous rally point. if all goes well I expect it to bounce here otherwise its 65.

1 hour is way over sold. even if it dips lower I think there would be a sharp pull back. Perhaps its going after a lower low for a divergence? next 5-15 mins will be interesting to watch

im pretty sure there will be short covering at 65 and profit taking. wondering if it will happen today

[SilverRex]

welp we are all in the same boat now
picked up more hgu at 10.51

[RX_EVOLV]

I agree oil might do a quick bounce at $65, so i'm waiting for that. Hopefully it will happen first thing tmr morning.

[Dinan]

did you get any HNU?

i'm in at 6.20, good buy?


buying any hou? or still holding HOD?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so SR, would $65 oil be good time to get into HOU?

for a swing trade perhaps, but for LT I would caution against it.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
cool thanks,
so whats the resistance point for oil? Below $65?

after 65, next major support that I think you will see things happen would be at 62.9, 59-60, 55-56

if we get there

[Dinan]

i hear on BNN they talking about 850 gold again....what do you think about this SR?


WOW!!!!:eek:

what happened to HGU in the last 30min..... gold didn't drop :dunno:

[997TT]

given todays massive sell off if you had to pick one stock to rebound by 10% which one would it be?

My list is CNQ ($55), TCK.B $16.91 or PDN ($4.00)

thoughts?

Edit: Just threw my last remaining funds into TCK.B at $16.80.
we'll see what happens i guess.

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by 997TT
given todays massive sell off if you had to pick one stock to rebound by 10% which one would it be?

My list is CNQ ($55), TCK.B $16.91 or PDN ($4.00)

thoughts?

I was thinking on Harvest Energy HTE.UN. Seems undervalued.

[997TT]

HGU :banghead:

10.33 ... can't wait for today to end. What a way to begin the week.

[Z_Fan]

Seemed to be a big sell off at the end of day. If Gold moves up to the 930 range overnight - and it has generally rebounded after a day of $10+ down in the last few weeks, I could see HGU opening up at $10.80 tomorrow morning.

I think if Gold continues to go down and actually falls below $907 price range, which it seemed to have a hard time getting above last time...well...then maybe it's time to think about cutting losses. But until then, I'm not too worried.

I bought more at $10.3x just before close.

[civic_rida]

Wow what a day.

[SilverRex]

well didnt expect a sell off at the end of the day. definately will have to see what happens tomorrow. As for HGU, its all about the performence of the hui index.

I did expect the bottom side risk to about 318 and it closed right at 318.27. why 318? its a pretty obvious trend support and a previous resistance which is now a support.

food for thought, in the last few months the hui has dipped from 300 to 241 (-19.6%)
then rally (+35%) higher.
327.84 to 254.95 (-22%)
then rallied (+35%) higher
343.27 to 274.11 (-20%)
then rallied (+47.5%) higher.

guess what we are now
404.56 to 318.27 (-21%)

I do expect a bounce from current levels, but will it put in another 35+% gain that would only happen if gold can break above 1000 but I dont think its now.

[Dinan]

^^^

so where would you plan to exit HGU? 11.5 ?

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


hell ya brother. I made and lost more than that. haha

Only difference is I'm still up considerably since I only started with 3K and spent around 35K of what I made.....but its far from the 177K peak!!

What was my SNO loss?....something like 60K overnight hahaha aaahh

oh wow:eek: you guys are crazy..lol, i'm sure you make a good amount if you lose that much!

do you day trade or you do this on the side?

[Rat Fink]

.

[Z_Fan]

SNO shouldn't even be allowed to be typed into a forum message. If you do, it should change it to a series of swear words and colourful expletives.

FUCK SNO!

[Dinan]

whats SNO?


wow, you guys have balls lol, high risk tolerance!

[Z_Fan]

A shit ass stock that is now 0.02 and a lot of people bought it when it 2000% or 20x higher than that!

[Dinan]

damn those penny stocks....

i guess it looked promising for all you guys to invest that much into it.

[cosmok]

Wow gold is down big already

[Z_Fan]

Oil was down $1.00 there too, $.83 down now.

Looks like we are getting fucked tomorrow on HGU. I bought a whack of it too. Fawk. :nut:

[DRKM]

Edited below...

[DRKM]

Based on the last 30 day oil and HGu have been anti correlating 82% of the time on 4.75h increments. Todays trend was just a powerass move to fit in the 20% range but if Oil continues to go down there is no reason for HGU to stay down as well.

Zfan- how much is a fuck load? At the moment I got 1700 averaged at $10.46...

[SilverRex]

Tuesday. yes I am sure some of you is kind of fustrated how the market reacted late in the day, but thats all part it trading. Beside, nothing that was not expected.

as mention on monday. oil after having being overbought and finally crashed, althought it did not get to my initial target which I say 65 but it was pretty darn close at 66.5. Clearly on this chart, it was heldup as the 66.5-67 area is a previous support. which stopped the bleeding. Now it is oversold and need a pull back. In a deal world, oil would want to pull back to its own fibonacci retracement which is now situated at around 68.8, 69.50 and around 70.40.

look for those level to offer heavy resistance and possibly a shorting opportunity. imo I would say around 70 would be good place to start, if oil is to retrace that much, then the market has to rally pretty big today. However I do expect it to do so.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062309.jpg

and for gold. while I didnt expect the last min sell off in HGU. gold price remains predictable as I have been saying all alone the next support range is 913-918 once the 933 area caved in. And so we not only saw 918 but over night gold price dip lower JUST to touch 913.20 and now that we did, it has since rallied back to 924 this morning, isnt support and fibonacchi retracement levels wonderful, they work most of the time and people buy at these levels. Now gold has been dropping quite alot lately without much of a big rally and I may or may not be right, but I do hope and expect gold to make a somewhat bigger rally today if not sometime this week. Simply because I view the 913 area as a last stand if gold according to many gold bugs is to make a huge run up this summer. Of course if that does not happen, gold will not be able to get pass 960. Similar to oil, I expect a healty rebound for gold to at least its 38.2% retracement from its recent peak to bottom at around 943 which happens to be a huge resistance at this point.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062309.jpg

while current sentiment is pretty bearish technically for oil, gold and DOW. I do expect a good pull back before resuming its down trend.


one critical note: while I expect things to rally higher this morning, there is a danger as the US dollar index is at a very important uptrend line. If US dollar reacts and bounces, then it could reverse the market again. So if you find yourself in the green, watch it tightly or move your stop in case such event takes the market down further. oil next support is at around 65 and gold at around 890-900 if recent support fails.

[Dinan]

you forgot NG :) where is a next resistance? i can get an idea where to sell:)

[997TT]

Go HGU and TCK.B.

so far so good.

HGU up to 10.51 and TCK.B to $17.30

[SilverRex]

dont be surprise hgu could test the low at 10.30s. a good strategy is to unwind half your position and re-enter if it dips back to 10.30s assuming your size of position and after fees warrants it.

[SilverRex]

well folks we have 10 mins left before the May home sales data comes out, I believe the market is waiting for this to move. I hope its positive because the market is in dire need of a pull back (bounce)

[Dinan]

the numbers were less then expected..... not good....


SR, what you think about NG, debating if i should sell or hold.. got in at 5.20 .....

[SilverRex]

^

wow your still holding.

well I think bottom side is about 3.88s for NG before it really turns bearish if break below.

[Dinan]

^^^ unfortunately yes:dunno:

[Dinan]

would it be a better idea to get out off hnu and put it in hgu?

[SilverRex]

^ yes it would be less volatile imo

[Vanish3d]

in HGU at 10.33... hope it doesnt go down any lower

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
in HGU at 10.33... hope it doesnt go down any lower

Lucky you, I got in about 20 cents higher :banghead:

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08


Lucky you, I got in about 20 cents higher :banghead:

hopefully it wont matter too much when we get out at around 12.5
Im broke right now so Im only playing with pocket change

[SilverRex]

hmmm, well in the last 6 months, the hui gold bug index has never given up more than 22% decline before rallying. we are now at 21.75% from the 404.56 high. So how much more lower would it go?

next possible support is hui at 310 which is 6 pt lower that would possibly put hgu at about 9.84 if it does head lower.

however I just notice it bounced back to 320 from the 316 low today. Indication bottom is in? lets hope so. :) key number so far remains at 318. Lets hope this is good support

hgu back to 10.50, see how important it is to have dry powder to buy back lower :poosie:

[Dinan]

lets hope soo.... i got out off HNU and got into HGU ........



still at 12-12.50 exit price? or is that too much....

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex

hgu back to 10.50, see how important it is to have dry powder to buy back lower :poosie:

I wish.... hopefully I can build up some powder

Question SR, is this your profession? where did you pick up all this knowledge?

[civic_rida]

wow
this economy sucks

[KRZY403]

that is it i am not touching hou anymore today

[Dinan]

anyone else here we should get back to 8800-9100 on the TSX:eek: :nut:

[civic_rida]

:banghead:

[Euro_Trash]

Man missed my buy on HGU by 1 cent, now watching it climb and climb... that is the worst!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
lets hope soo.... i got out off HNU and got into HGU ........



still at 12-12.50 exit price? or is that too much....

so did you really get out of HNU and into HGU, if you did good job

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


I wish.... hopefully I can build up some powder

Question SR, is this your profession? where did you pick up all this knowledge?

im not a professional trader, but time to time im starting to see how the market plays out, more or less it does the same thing over and over again. of course cant be right all the time, just when you think its the perfect setup and enter the market, it will try to throw you off, you just have to stick with the important numbers supports and resistance + you need it to play out as my brother always tells me, let the market prove me wrong.

[civic_rida]

im in hgu at 10.40

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


so did you really get out of HNU and into HGU, if you did good job


YES i did thanks to YOU!



i got in yesterday at 10.65 and today at 10.29 :)


now let us know when to sell :):clap:

[997TT]

yippee fkn kayeah

i'm up on HGU now.

:rofl:

[SilverRex]

well here is another thing if you guys are going to hold on to HGU abit longer, try doing this. the hui index had a hard time getting pass 325 this morning, and it finally broke free and touched 327. if it touches any higher say 330. you may start thinking to unwind half of your position because there is that possibility that price wants to test the break out point.

but if your a day trader then obviously you will probablly exit everything and wait for a pull back.

not saying it will happen but ive seen it happen alot.

reason for today's last minute turn around, not only is gold oversold lately, but US dollar index broke thru a very important up trend line and now all eyes is watching if the index at 79.19 will hold, IF this level is breached, then that means there is further weakness ahead for the dollar and it means the market could be setup to reach a bit higher before the real swoon begins. so take note.

looking at euro/usd its at 1.4071 which is a surprise. the level 1.4158-4168 must hold otherwise sentiment is bullish for the market

[civic_rida]

Wow 10.85 hgu is this a sell?

[Dinan]

sell is anytime you got profit and want it.... but from what SR is saying wait atleast till HUI hits 330 and sell some or all and buy back when or if it dips .....but for after that we still waiting on instruction from SR :)


:thumbsup:

[Dinan]

it's almost at 330..... anyone selling ?


what the next resistance to sell after?

[Vanish3d]

where do u watch live charts/quotes?

[civic_rida]

I sold to soon :(

[Dinan]

sold half at 10.99....



don't know where to sell the rest...:dunno: :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
where do u watch live charts/quotes?

i use my broker... BMO

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I sold to soon :(

I sold HGU and HOU too soon.

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
I sold to soon :(

Fuck. Tell me about it.

I had 2000 shares. Got nervous. Sold all of it at profit but last sale was like $10.79 or something. Hahah...

Then I put a bunch in to HNU LOL fuck I am mistake prone today.

[civic_rida]

Im still holding hou and sold hgu at 10.92
Just bought some hnu

[civic_rida]

Oil seems to rally on the last friday of every month.

[Dinan]

you guys going into HNU?? lol i left there to get into HGU hehehehe



wow the US dollar has gone done a lot..........should be good for gold!

[Rat Fink]

.

[KRZY403]

am i still the only one holding hgu?

[997TT]

sold HEB weeks ago...taking a pounding today

sold HGU at 10.98 ... am looking to re-enter. Was sweating there a bit when it was 10.2X earlier....

still holding TCK.B

[Dinan]

i still have half of my shares!


SR, still holding?

[skandalouz_08]

I still have some HGU, gonna watch it for a bit more before cashing in.

[Euro_Trash]

I am still holding HEB haha... I'm a sucker

[jjjheimer]

Originally posted by Euro_Trash
I am still holding HEB haha... I'm a sucker
That makes two of us.

[max_boost]

I want to buy something but don't know what. Say the word SR! lol

[civic_rida]

Buy heb :thumbsup:

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by jjjheimer

That makes two of us.

Yep if the ship goes down I am going down with it.