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cosmok
07-09-2009, 08:27 AM
Broke below 60

Dinan
07-09-2009, 08:34 AM
just as i bought,


SR, you still in or you got out?

KleanCord
07-09-2009, 08:35 AM
^ Dinan stop buying stuff :)

997TT
07-09-2009, 08:40 AM
In HOD at 15.51.

Then i wonder why i lose money all the time....lol

Dinan
07-09-2009, 08:41 AM
hahahhaha... same old story, i buy = tanks, i sell = flies :)

KleanCord
07-09-2009, 08:43 AM
Well there goes oil again above $60. I need better spot oil charts. Does anyone know if there is a symbol to punch in for Market Trader (Reuters program).

Rat Fink
07-09-2009, 08:44 AM
.

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 08:45 AM
well trend is clearly bearish on all sectors, but looking at the US dollar index, there is a very clear down trend line that has made the US dollar jump everytime to touches it and so far we are away from that about 30-40pts (79.9)

just wanting to think the opposite as some times it just wants to go a bit further and make a sharp divergence.

so im going to go on a hunch by saying the US dollar has to suddenly turn around and dip a bit lower to find support between 79.80-79.9 then turn around for good

hopefully this will turn all market upwards a bit before going lower once again near the end of the day

Dinan
07-09-2009, 08:52 AM
so i take it your still holding SR... ?

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 09:01 AM
^

yup I only bought a very small unit, plus the first fibo at 38% should be extremely significant which is around 58. Im just waiting patiently for a bounce across all sectors or shall I say alittle further rally from yesterdays high hopefully

then again weakness in the US dollar does not always translate to market strength either so we will see what happens in the next few hours

eljefe
07-09-2009, 09:03 AM
Oil Falls Below $60 as Demand Declines, Fuel Supplies Climb
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Mark Shenk

July 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $60 a barrel for the first time since May 26 after reports showed that U.S. fuel inventories increased as the recession curbed consumption.

Stockpiles of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose last week, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. Total daily fuel demand in the past four weeks dropped 5.9 percent from a year earlier to average 18.4 million barrels, the Energy Department said.

“The momentum is clearly in favor of the bears,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “This is a reality check for all of those who ignored the fundamentals of the market. Prices are clearly headed lower from here.”

Crude oil for August delivery fell 25 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $59.89 a barrel at 10:33 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have declined 16 percent over the past seven days, the longest stretch since September 2006.

Brent crude for August settlement rose 11 cents to $60.54 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. Yesterday, the contract declined $2.80, or 4.4 percent, to $60.43, the lowest settlement since May 25.

997TT
07-09-2009, 09:08 AM
So i cash out of TCK to buy HOD
at first wrong move as TCK moves 0.30 over what i sold at.

But now the gap is closing. HOD 15.78

Gonna sell at $58 oil

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 09:25 AM
ok euro is back to its morning top lets do this, lower US dollar, come on turn this around baby

Dinan
07-09-2009, 09:26 AM
so SR, when would be a good time to take some profit off HNU and wait for a pull back....


this time i'm going to fallow, no matter what, you were bang on with HOD and HGU...:thumbsup:



lets go OIL!

997TT
07-09-2009, 09:40 AM
take some profit on HNU?

that sentence doesn't make sense...lol

fk, had a chance to sell HOD but go greedy. now back to break even....i'm still bearish.

We'll see.

edit: oh oh... HOD getting crushed

KRZY403
07-09-2009, 09:48 AM
wow look at hgu go!

Dinan
07-09-2009, 09:49 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
take some profit on HNU?

that sentence doesn't make sense...lol

fk, had a chance to sell HOD but go greedy. now back to break even....i'm still bearish.

We'll see.

hahahha, yeah i know it sounds off, but the time will come soon enough :p







SR, when you planning to exit HOU?

canadian_hustla
07-09-2009, 10:14 AM
can someone please explain to me what a reverse split is?

FAZ went up 900%
FAS went up 400%

This happened today - I was told that this was caused from a reverse split. Thank you.

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 10:26 AM
well so the us dollar index finally crashed down the the about 79.80 talk about dead on drop

now if things technically works out, this should be it for the weakness for today's dollar

but so far the sudden drop in the dollar and rise in euro doesnt seem to push other market up as it should so im beginning to wonder what that means. gold is rising but ever so slowly and STOCH is starting to get over bought again, the feeling is I think the market will start selling off once it finds a bit of a top, there isnt much strength in the rally

the only thing that can propel the markets to much higher is if the US dollar utterly collasp and falls back down further low, if this happens, then the market rally can continue.

as I write this euro just punched thru higher so maybe the dollar can drop a bit more?

lets hope so

troyl
07-09-2009, 10:26 AM
Originally posted by canadian_hustla
can someone please explain to me what a reverse split is?

FAZ went up 900%
FAS went up 400%

This happened today - I was told that this was caused from a reverse split. Thank you.

Say its a 1 for 2 reverse split, you would only own 1 share for every 2 you held before the split.

Z_Fan
07-09-2009, 10:32 AM
Reverse splits suck ass.

If you have been following AIG, there was a Reverse Split recently. The stock has been absolutely murdered since that happened. It was a 1 for 20. You get 1 for every 20 you had.

I lost a couple thousand bucks by not selling before the split.

DRKM
07-09-2009, 10:38 AM
Originally posted by KleanCord
Well there goes oil again above $60. I need better spot oil charts. Does anyone know if there is a symbol to punch in for Market Trader (Reuters program).

You got the Reuters Program? Explain more I use it at the Universit all the time but it is a downgraded version.

Oh in the history the symbol for oil is [email protected]

What brokerage are you using?

Dinan
07-09-2009, 11:00 AM
oil is having a hard time finding some ground....

would 62 oil be realistic exit price ?

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by Z_Fan
Reverse splits suck ass.

If you have been following AIG, there was a Reverse Split recently. The stock has been absolutely murdered since that happened. It was a 1 for 20. You get 1 for every 20 you had.

I lost a couple thousand bucks by not selling before the split.

ETF are different when reverse split happens, a normal stock would have a metal impact that the company is not going great and hence further sell off

but ETF has to split to maintain share ranges, other wise if the index that it is tracking keeps heading one direction you will have a bull etf like 200 dollars and bear etf in the pennies.

assuming FAZ/FAS are index tracking only

Z_Fan
07-09-2009, 11:23 AM
I know. :poosie:

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 11:31 AM
ok

so the US dollar index drop as expected, but here is the problem, the market rally was completely crap, no strength, oil cant even break out of its down trend channel for good. while gold creeped higher it is starting to get overbought again.

if you ask me

I think this type of correlation tells me that when the US dollar moves higher again, then all sector will continue to sell off.

Im going to exit hou at about 60 (I did say I'll exit if it dips below) so more or less just fulfilling my initial plan.

going to wait for a the bounce to happen at 58 now.

DOW is creeping back to its intraday high, but I dont think it can break away from 8220, its going to form a double top imo and start rolling over.

Dinan
07-09-2009, 11:32 AM
look at LVS GO!:thumbsup:

civic_rida
07-09-2009, 11:40 AM
:poosie:

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 11:48 AM
dollar chart update, let see if my 79.80 target today will hold. the STOCH is way over sold. looking for the US dollar to start turning around now and bring the market to its knees

oil down trend channel is targeting 58, going to try a swing trade there maybe tomorrow

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollartoday.jpg

Dinan
07-09-2009, 11:55 AM
okay, i'm out of HOU too...



thanks SR:thumbsup:

Dinan
07-09-2009, 11:57 AM
think we got a bit too happy with NG, seems to be going down AGAIN!

maybe there will be oil rally tomorrow, it's friday, have to jack up the gas price at the pumps for the weekend :)

SilverRex
07-09-2009, 12:03 PM
^

yeah the ratio between NG and oil is like at around 18, the normal ratio should be around 11.

as oil drops, NG can only follow, but in due time as the ratio contracts I think you will see NG accel,

I dont think we will see below 3 dollar NG yet. now that NG low is at 3.33, I feel we are very close to a bottom.

I will buy NG myself if it ever touches 3 bucks

Dinan
07-09-2009, 12:06 PM
^^^ how long are you holding your share that you have now (HNU) ?


SR, i hope you bought back in, i sold so it should fly now :D


lol, it did move up after i sold :rofl:

Euro_Trash
07-09-2009, 12:11 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
SR, i hope you bought back in, i sold so it should fly now :D

You planning on jumping into anything today Dinan?

I bought into XIU yesterday and have seen my first profit in a few weeks. I dumped all of my HNU the other day, it was sad. And I finally gave up on HEB at about 2.70 a while ago. Looks like I have some spare cash to play with....

Dinan
07-09-2009, 12:14 PM
Originally posted by Euro_Trash


You planning on jumping into anything today Dinan?

I bought into XIU yesterday and have seen my first profit in a few weeks. I dumped all of my HNU the other day, it was sad. And I finally gave up on HEB at about 2.70 a while ago. Looks like I have some spare cash to play with....

buy HOU while it's still low :nut:


i don't think you should have sold HNU...

Euro_Trash
07-09-2009, 12:40 PM
Originally posted by Dinan



i don't think you should have sold HNU...

Yeah I still don't know how to feel about HNU... last weekend I sat down with a NG marketer and he was telling me they aren't predicting great things into the fall

Dinan
07-09-2009, 12:44 PM
Originally posted by Euro_Trash


Yeah I still don't know how to feel about HNU... last weekend I sat down with a NG marketer and he was telling me they aren't predicting great things into the fall

maybe, but it can't get too much worse, i'm sure will see 5$ NG at least....



this is it guys, after SEVEN days, NG is going to close in GREEN! :clap:

SilverRex
07-10-2009, 06:40 AM
friday, maybe this is good for some of us who made some wrong moves in the past few days. take a break in the weekend and hope for a better next week.

oil it was unable to break above its down trend channel an so the bottom targets 56.70-58 with 58 the 1st fibo level which should be significant.

I expect oil to (once find a bottom somewhere between the above levels to start making a bit of an advance. however until the down trend channel is broken to the upside, expect oil to remain somewhat dull like yesterday but if does break out I then I expect oil to put in a pretty big rally towards 63-64 oil simply because the down trend line has been quite lengthy this will be a short covering rally imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil071009.jpg

and for gold, because of the sudden strength in the US dollar after making a bottom around 79.80 (see dollar chart) gold made lower but still unable to break below its recent low in the 905 area. And is getting oversold.

I expect unless gold also breaks above its (red) down trend line for good other wise upside will be limited. with over sold conditions popping up again, down side is risk is limited to about 900

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold071009.jpg

and finally the US dollar, as I hoped for that it will turn around at 79.80 because of an extreme oversold condition, it did turn around and because of it everything else dropped against it and DOW is about to open lower. but now we are met with an over bought condition so while the red trend channel suggest this could be an up move in the future I dont expect it to make any more advance than it already has, meaning there is a slight chance that the market could dip first then rally later. Thats just my imo in terms of the overbought condition on this chart. but given the nature we are smack right in the middle of a higher and lower channel it could very well go both ways.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071009.jpg

Dinan
07-10-2009, 07:14 AM
so i take it your not buying anything today SR... or you buying some HGU?




am i wrong or we should worry about NatGas??

oil is dropping like a rock and it's taking the oil to NG ratio with it, so that means NG won't be moving any higher unless OIL does, and worse case if oil drops too much it could bring the ration even lower and NG will drop too, but then again when the ratio was high, NG didn't move up to close the gap, so who knows :dunno:


what do you guys think?

997TT
07-10-2009, 07:17 AM
I think you should've bought HOD yesterday. :thumbsup:

would love to see 56-58 oil ...

Dinan
07-10-2009, 07:21 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
I think you should've bought HOD yesterday. :thumbsup:

would love to see 56-58 oil ...


good pick!! :thumbsup:

SilverRex
07-10-2009, 07:24 AM
^

just becareful, if that down trendline breaks, oil will begin a short covering rally that could make it interesting.

997TT
07-10-2009, 07:27 AM
Will do SR. Ya, i'm trading this with caution...as you mentioned and i've read $60 could be a spring board if earnings and comments are good. I might even bail at a 0.50 profit ...

cosmok
07-10-2009, 08:03 AM
I'd love to see HOD over $16 today

Dinan
07-10-2009, 08:07 AM
Originally posted by cosmok
I'd love to see HOD over $16 today


it missed buy .03 cents ...... you bought some too... wow, may 11$ HOD, looks really good about now....

cosmok
07-10-2009, 08:08 AM
Originally posted by Dinan



it missed buy .03 cents ...... you bought some too... wow, may 11$ HOD, looks really good about now....
Around 700 at $14.3, gold just needs to straighten out.

KleanCord
07-10-2009, 08:09 AM
Originally posted by DRKM


You got the Reuters Program? Explain more I use it at the Universit all the time but it is a downgraded version.

Oh in the history the symbol for oil is [email protected]

What brokerage are you using?

Must have a different program from you. [email protected] didn't work. But thanks anyways.

It is just Market Trader on iTrade (formerly eTrade).

Decent Java program, which is good for me since I am on a Mac.

broken_legs
07-10-2009, 08:10 AM
I see a big head and shoulders pattern forming in Schlumberger and the OIH. Looks like its going to test the 'neckline here' If it gets rejected I will have to go short SLB out of principle.

We are definitely losing money in North America, should be interesting I suspect it will be the same elsewhere. I've heard rumours of large very profitable contracts getting canceled.

Dinan
07-10-2009, 08:14 AM
Originally posted by KleanCord


Must have a different program from you. [email protected] didn't work. But thanks anyways.

It is just Market Trader on iTrade (formerly eTrade).

Decent Java program, which is good for me since I am on a Mac.

do you have a link, give it a try...

i use http://www.freestockcharts.com/ .... but i don't think you can chart commodities....

broken_legs
07-10-2009, 08:32 AM
Anyone know if you can sell naked calls on Active Trader?

Dinan
07-10-2009, 08:46 AM
i miss those VOLATILE HNU days!!! it's been really flat since it broke 3.80 .....


so when is hurricane season :)


and where is this global worming? we could use some ||HOT summer days... anything to help give NG some life!:D




okay, so lets see how much longer can NG hold 3.36, seems to be bouncing off of it ...

http://www.oilngold.com/data/ngpivotd.png

civic_rida
07-10-2009, 08:56 AM
Low oil and and natural gas should be great for alberta's economy

Dinan
07-10-2009, 09:18 AM
anyone else thinks CLL is a good buy?

it's like 20 cents off the 52 week low... has a solid balance sheet...but oil should dip bit more, maybe a better deal will come....

troyl
07-10-2009, 09:59 AM
Gusella was on BNN yesterday here is a link

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip191638

I think I am the only one here buying :facepalm: I am debating selling HNU to buy a few more CLL.

Dinan
07-10-2009, 10:09 AM
Originally posted by troyl
Gusella was on BNN yesterday here is a link

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip191638

I think I am the only one here buying :facepalm: I am debating selling HNU to buy a few more CLL.

thanks for the link..

i never know how much to buy on a penny stock :dunno:

SilverRex
07-10-2009, 11:00 AM
oil trying to break out from the trend channel. now looking at some major US data wont be release until next tue/wed (retail sales and inflation numbers CPI)

I think right now its the perfect set up for a little rally straight until tuesday morning.

Dinan
07-10-2009, 11:05 AM
Tax Credit for Natural Gas-Fueled Cars May Be Doubled

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5ZAIAJiYUow

Dinan
07-10-2009, 11:22 AM
did you buy any HOU, SR?

SilverRex
07-10-2009, 11:36 AM
yeah I have a small position for a quick play

Dinan
07-10-2009, 11:45 AM
did you get in at the low of the day ? was thinking to pick some up, but seems kinda late now :dunno:

KleanCord
07-10-2009, 01:21 PM
I am just no good on the NYSE. Yet another loss with AIG this morning, then went long midday only to get stopped out and now it runs again. I think I am going to stick to the TSX from now on.

I actually have a feeling that as bad as AIG seems the huge huge volume might signal a low. I don't know if I can take another gamble.

The NYSE makes Las Vegas look tame.

Dinan
07-10-2009, 01:49 PM
^^ how you doing with LVS ???

it dropped and now it's pretty flat after a nice run up yesterday!

DRKM
07-11-2009, 09:49 AM
Holding 500 shares Hou over the week end. Sticking with small postions, this low volume is driving me insane. If oil rallys on Monday will buy another 1500 shares. Been making that play a couple times this week.

Sr: would yousay that the market is trying to find an equilibrium at the moment ? This low volume is throwing me for a loop. I feel like I can nottrust any market data at all.

bilal.h1
07-12-2009, 01:03 PM
hi friends
i have been following this board for a week now, and i see some experts on these boards. i am new to the Forex trading and i am trying to learn all about it before i start trading real money.my problem is there is so many information on the net that gets me lost.

i was wondering if any of you have any advice on where to start to get a better understanding of the technical and fundamental analysis of forex.

thanks in advance

and which broker do you guys suggest, i enrolled with ACM for a demo account.:confused:

Dinan
07-12-2009, 09:18 PM
Damn NG is making me worry here!

max_boost
07-12-2009, 09:33 PM
I changed my buy order to $3 nat gas so $3.40 HNU.

Good luck and the slaughter continues this week.

Ahhh.....

SilverRex
07-13-2009, 06:29 AM
monday another new week, lets hope this week we get better moves. Looking at oil, finally on friday it has broken out of its down trend line while not powerful but seems like we are bottoming in the near term I Expect oil to recover upwards a bit as to where it will end not quite sure, most likely target would be around 63.5 would be a good place to start given its the 200 day EMA 1 hour and near the first fibo at around 64.4.

look for areas between 63-66 to become quite the resistance especially if we hit those levels in a heart beat.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil071309.jpg

and for gold, not much exictment either direction in the last week really. but I too expect it to bounce higher beginning this week with some heavy resistance in around 920-928. only if 928 is broken to the upside will we have a shot at 943, other wise expect shorts to come in full force at the end of a strong rally to keep prices down. watch the key level up trend line forming up to about 910 now. over all I think if gold ever closes below 900 we could get some serious sell off towrds 800-850

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold071309.jpg

and I could update the US dollar index, my chart is still stuck from last week's data. but anyways quick view on the DOW, it too broke a down trend line. expecting it to bounce this week and if all plays out it should be a up then down trend resumption. now the market is going to open lower so I expect a open low then close green today

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow071309.jpg

Dinan
07-13-2009, 06:50 AM
hey SR, when can we buy some HOU? at the open?


any thoughts on where NG might be going? it's getting me worried

broken_legs
07-13-2009, 06:55 AM
Heres what I think:

NG, OIL up early week. OIH tests the neckline. I got my SLB Shares and have a limit order to sell at 52.

GS releases earnings on TUESDAY.... Hmmm

banks are up in early morning too.

Thinking about taking out a position in EEV. Emerging markets are pretty pricey right now.

Dinan
07-13-2009, 07:20 AM
what did just happen? OIL was up .70 cents just a bit ago and now it's down .50 cents.. and NG, well another .14 cents down ...:eek:

997TT
07-13-2009, 07:27 AM
wow, nose dive right before open.

So if all of us would've listened to Z_fan and bought HND, we'd be up how many thousands of dollars? lol

Dinan
07-13-2009, 07:30 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
wow, nose dive right before open.

So if all of us would've listened to Z_fan and bought HND, we'd be up how many thousands of dollars? lol

why, was he bearish on NG??


don't you still have HOD?

Z_Fan
07-13-2009, 07:35 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
wow, nose dive right before open.

So if all of us would've listened to Z_fan and bought HND, we'd be up how many thousands of dollars? lol

Including myself. Cuz I'm holding HNU and am thousands of dollars down.

997TT
07-13-2009, 07:39 AM
Originally posted by Dinan


why, was he bearish on NG??


don't you still have HOD?

I dont' think he was bearish but he made the comment something along the lines "we should just buy HND as that's the only thing going up"

this was middle last week (maybe earlier can't remember) ... so Nat Gas including today is down quite a bit from that post.

Dinan
07-13-2009, 07:45 AM
Originally posted by 997TT


I dont' think he was bearish but he made the comment something along the lines "we should just buy HND as that's the only thing going up"

this was middle last week (maybe earlier can't remember) ... so Nat Gas including today is down quite a bit from that post.


oh yeah, i remember that.. lol ... damn who would have thought ... NG is already low as it is to buy HND...


anyone buying HNU at this price.. or wait for even lower ??

997TT
07-13-2009, 07:51 AM
HNU under $4.

so tempting but who know when it will pop.

I'm more inclined to wait for nat Gas to rally a bit intraday and pick up some HND to ride it back down.

Wait Nat Gas rally ... smoked one too many joints this weekend.

Dinan
07-13-2009, 07:56 AM
wow. if HNU keeps on dropping like this, there might be a reverse slip in the works.... :dunno:

cosmok
07-13-2009, 08:00 AM
I wanted to clear my HOD and HGD positions this morning, I can't bring myself to with the way they're going :nut:

SilverRex
07-13-2009, 08:05 AM
hmm looks like market wants to dip first for a divergence then push up.

Dinan
07-13-2009, 08:13 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
hmm looks like market wants to dip first for a divergence then push up.

even NG :D

broken_legs
07-13-2009, 08:25 AM
Proud new owner of HNU @ 4.00

Interesting comments here from Meredeth:

"Ms. Whitney upgraded her recommendation on Goldman Sachs to a “buy” from “neutral” previously, with a 12-month price target of $186 (U.S.). The shares closed on Friday at $141.87, which means that the analyst's target implies a 30 per cent upside. However, keep in mind that since Ms. Whitney's “neutral” recommendation, which began on March 4, the shares have risen 66 per cent during one of the biggest stock market rebounds in decades – suggesting that she may have overplayed her bearish hand."

KRZY403
07-13-2009, 08:29 AM
hnu is making me so depressed :(

Dinan
07-13-2009, 08:43 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs
Proud new owner of HNU @ 4.00

Interesting comments here from Meredeth:

"Ms. Whitney upgraded her recommendation on Goldman Sachs to a “buy” from “neutral” previously, with a 12-month price target of $186 (U.S.). The shares closed on Friday at $141.87, which means that the analyst's target implies a 30 per cent upside. However, keep in mind that since Ms. Whitney's “neutral” recommendation, which began on March 4, the shares have risen 66 per cent during one of the biggest stock market rebounds in decades – suggesting that she may have overplayed her bearish hand."

same here, i'm looking to flip these. IF we can some kinda rally here

SilverRex
07-13-2009, 08:59 AM
welp like I said no big news today for the US until tomorrow and wed, so a bounce now is expected and so far so good.

im hoping for a very strong technical bounce for the DOW back to around 8300-8400 before resuming the down trend.

broken_legs
07-13-2009, 09:01 AM
Well when the most bearish bank analyst on the street who has been bearish for the entire run up of the indexes lead by the banks, finally switches over and changes to a short term bull........ Does that not signal a top??

KleanCord
07-13-2009, 09:24 AM
Seasonal strength for Gold starts on July 12th, which was yesterday. It actually lined up perfectly with it's previous lows on January 15th and April 26th.

I am taking a position going long in gold here. It gold doesn't make it's run here with the seasonality the trend support and what should be the ensuing correction in the overall markets, than there is no hope to crack above $1000.

It has been consolidating for months and months when priced in Euros, CAD, AUD, etc. Might be time for a movement.

KleanCord
07-13-2009, 09:25 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs
Well when the most bearish bank analyst on the street who has been bearish for the entire run up of the indexes lead by the banks, finally switches over and changes to a short term bull........ Does that not signal a top??

Very good point. I do know that I would like to own the banks for a run up to the earnings and sell them before the earnings release. Too bad I am very late to that party.

KleanCord
07-13-2009, 09:28 AM
After driving to Winnipeg I was thinking about an economic indicator of the spread between Diesel prices and Gas prices.

Diesel is generally used in industrial and commercial vehicles and gas the consumer. So when Diesel gets to near the same price as Gas as it did going back before this year than perhaps that would signal strength in the economy. Then when you see Gas 20% more expensive then perhaps that would signal economic weakness since people tend to drive regardless of the price.

Does anyone know if this idea has already been addressed by an economist or analyst?

Dinan
07-13-2009, 09:40 AM
good call on the rally SR!:thumbsup:


now lets have a NG rally!

broken_legs
07-13-2009, 09:55 AM
Originally posted by KleanCord
After driving to Winnipeg I was thinking about an economic indicator of the spread between Diesel prices and Gas prices.

Diesel is generally used in industrial and commercial vehicles and gas the consumer. So when Diesel gets to near the same price as Gas as it did going back before this year than perhaps that would signal strength in the economy. Then when you see Gas 20% more expensive then perhaps that would signal economic weakness since people tend to drive regardless of the price.

Does anyone know if this idea has already been addressed by an economist or analyst?

Never heard of this, but it definitely makes sense

Although last year there were some issues with refining that caused shortages which im sure impacted pricing.

Overall, looking at the spread you have yourself a very good indicator.

Can you find any data?

KleanCord
07-13-2009, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs


Never heard of this, but it definitely makes sense

Although last year there were some issues with refining that caused shortages which im sure impacted pricing.

Overall, looking at the spread you have yourself a very good indicator.

Can you find any data?

Haven't found anything of the sort but fundamentally there is an explanation and best of all you can see it on a daily basis quite regularly. I would like to see historical diesel prices, but again not sure where to find that.

civic_rida
07-13-2009, 11:26 AM
If you held hnu from exactly a year from today you would be down 97% :banghead:

Dinan
07-13-2009, 11:27 AM
okay so oil and gold had a nice rally, but where the heck is NG!?!?!?!?!?!

Z_Fan
07-13-2009, 11:31 AM
Look at NG 1 year and thank your lucky stars you weren't on that ride. Look at the 3 year and you can then start to dream about NG doubling and that is about it. I can easily see NG getting to $2.50 in the next couple of weeks. :thumbsdow :banghead:

Dinan
07-13-2009, 11:34 AM
what... 2.50:eek:

i think this emotion says it all :facepalm:

RX_EVOLV
07-13-2009, 11:36 AM
got fed up with HNU this morning and sold the entire position, got some HOU instead @ 6.82. So far so good.. ish..

Not sure why I got into HNU in the first place. I know absolutely nothing but NG>

djayz
07-13-2009, 11:37 AM
I think fundamentals also say it, no hot weather so no need for a/c. Plus inventories are there so it's not like we will be running short anytime.

We need 2 things, global warming + heat waves and we might just see NG go up.

997TT
07-13-2009, 11:39 AM
I could take one for the team and buy HND.

That in itself would pop HNU up 10% min.

seriously though, Nat gas seems to do its own thing. So hard to predict where it goes. still bearish but with each 6% day, its gettnig harder to invest in HND.

Don't want to be holding it when HNU pops for 20%.

RX_EVOLV
07-13-2009, 11:42 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
I could take one for the team and buy HND.

That in itself would pop HNU up 10% min.

seriously though, Nat gas seems to do its own thing. So hard to predict where it goes. still bearish but with each 6% day, its gettnig harder to invest in HND.

Don't want to be holding it when HNU pops for 20%.

yeh soo far to buy HND/HOD now. market seems oversold! Probably a better strategy to wait for a clear trend reversal before buying HOU/HNU though imo.. of course I just bought HOU so.... yeh I'm all talk :rofl:

Dinan
07-13-2009, 11:49 AM
Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
got fed up with HNU this morning and sold the entire position, got some HOU instead @ 6.82. So far so good.. ish..

Not sure why I got into HNU in the first place. I know absolutely nothing but NG>

i hope you didn't take too big of a loss...


there lot of inverters that are bullish on NG...