Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

^ thanks


Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
out of the 3, HNU/HOU/HGU, HGU is probably the safest one to hold overnight

you took a loss on HNU ?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 997TT


Xiu hey. I'll start looking at it more seriously.

ya, i remember when i bought TCK at $7.XX and sold at $8. Been playing it ever since .... with mixed results.

Since our kid, i put less than 100Km's/week on the turbo. So i'm keeping the milage down for you guys. :thumbsup:


http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund_overview.do?ticker=XIU

:thumbsup:

haha we still have to set up that meet we've been talking about. Everyone can take turns getting a ride in the 997! :drool:

[997TT]

Originally posted by max_boost



http://ca.ishares.com/product_info/fund_overview.do?ticker=XIU

:thumbsup:

haha we still have to set up that meet we've been talking about. Everyone can take turns getting a ride in the 997! :drool:

So anything around the $14.80 point seems to be pretty darn good.

Are you buying at these prices and holding? or buying on dips and selling on rallies?

Oh and the turbo is nothing special. Now that DBS that Kulu has :drool:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[troyl]

Originally posted by davidI


I put a small position on BCF. I may jump on GO as well. Both will be great buys if oil gets up there again. Both will be huge failures if we see $30 oil again as their balance sheets can't really support that without additional financing.

Isnt Galleon's production heavily gas weighted? If I had extra cash I would be picking up BCF for sure.

[RX_EVOLV]

Originally posted by Dinan
^ thanks



you took a loss on HNU ?

yep.. glad I sold though. Sold HNU @ $4 to buy HOU @ $6.83. now it is $4.13 vs $7.54


Didnt sell HNU because I dont believe in NG, sold it because I know absolutely nothing about NG. Bought it for the first time purely on the hype and definitly got burnt on it. Now it is back to what I know 'best'. Gold and Oil .

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 997TT


So anything around the $14.80 point seems to be pretty darn good.

Are you buying at these prices and holding? or buying on dips and selling on rallies?

Oh and the turbo is nothing special. Now that DBS that Kulu has :drool:

Buy and hold. It also pays a $0.115 dividend every quarter. The goal is to sell at 15,000. Don't want to speculate too much haha You could always sell on rallies, it depends on your style. I wanted to sell at 11,000 but the index only got to 10,700 and then dropped to 9600 and almost hit my break even. I'm in around 9500 at $14.50. I didn't set a stop so I just watched my $12K evaporate to $1K. It's a simple way to make money really since you can bankroll it. If you invest $100K, every +/-100pts, is +/- $1k haha

I'm up about $7K right now but still no stop. Just don't know where to set it.

HXU might be better for you though, you like 2X. :devil:

You could always leave a portion of your portfolio dedicated to the high risk stuff. Maybe 80% XIU and 20% for the rest. That's what I did, bought some HNU but sitting at a loss since I have 2000 shares at $6. I don't feel like chasing it so I'm just going to let it sit.

[SilverRex]

ok oil isnt moving much again, so no chart, so far it got rejected yesterday when price hit its 200 EMA at about 62.3, watch out for 60.50 about there is the current uptrend line, breaking below that could bring oil quickly. other wise expect oil continue to grind ever so slowly zig zagging higher or lower depending on how the market does.

for gold, the initial 941.5 area held, gold dipped a bit under 937 but now is back above it providing support for another kick at the can higher. I continue to expect gold to find formidable resistance any where from now 939 to about 947, in the event gold does break above 947 it can induce another wave of buying momentum that could carry it to test about 957.

now looking at the US dollar index it has clearly broken down 39.35 as well as its up trend line at 79.50 which is also the .6 fibo.

if I was technical I would say this is quite bearish, so if it does not sharply turn around today and fast, this could signal more weakness in the US dollar ahead. and this will spawn further rally ahead for the equities.

euro is testing its own upper triangle resistance and looks like its ready to break out. similar to the dollar, if it does not turn around fast and create a divergence for a pull back, we could be heaed for further upside in all sectors today.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071609.jpg

Now dont ask me why oil and NG isnt moving as much as other markets. perhaps they have peaked? oil is in the middle of no where, either I waint for a better buying position like 55 oil or short it at an obvious 50% retracement at around 66. and for NG just going to stick to the charts with a range trading between 3.25-4.25 just going to ride this one out and be little patient.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro071609.jpg

[troyl]

Unexpected draw on nat gas inventories today? :thumbsup: One can only hope.

[Dinan]

^ lol, same here

I was looking at the chart on stockcharts and it rolled over to sept. Contract! Why so early?

[SilverRex]

now dow 1 hour chart is quite over bought, so even things looks to be on the breakout, I wont be surprised if we pull back either. but the bias is up I believe.

looking at the DOW chart, we didnt quite get to the retracement levels at 7950 and 7700, and its already punching thru some powerful technical moves that the daily bar took out the high of the last 21 trading session.

Dont shoot me if dow suddenly collasp just because it wants to make it below 8000 before the true rise begin. imo it looks like the rise is now excluding normal pull backs.

so if all goes accordingly to plan I expect dow to make a projected move some where up to the 9500-10500 area and this should be the end of the road for this big bear market rally that will then begin a wave 3 leg down to new lows imo

note: bear market rally can last anywhere from 3-6 months. lets take 6 months, that puts us the new wave down would start somewhere in sept

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dowtoday.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
^ lol, same here

I was looking at the chart on stockcharts and it rolled over to sept. Contract! Why so early?

not really that early, take oil for example, it rolls over chart wise as early as the 16th and as late as 23rd I think.

but

here is the best part, if there is one thing I learned from these chart roll overs is that even though it does not make an impact to the actual price that we trade because we have already rolled over since last week with beta pro funds, but the price on the charts itself is significant. so if NG is nowing using next's months contract price the sharp rise to about 3.60 is valid, and price this morning is simply retesting the lows imo

[997TT]

^ SR, so when you say retesting its lows do you believe it going to break or rebound.

$4.21 up $0.16....woohoo.

[SilverRex]

^ I think it will rebound

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex



here is the best part, if there is one thing I learned from these chart roll overs is that even though it does not make an impact to the actual price that we trade because we have already rolled over since last week with beta pro funds, but the price on the charts itself is significant. so if NG is nowing using next's months contract price the sharp rise to about 3.60 is valid, and price this morning is simply retesting the lows imo

i don't really understand... if you don't mind or anyone else, could you elaborate, thanks....


everything else is REd and natgas is green, :nut:

[Dinan]

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.

Thursday pivot point for natural gas is 3.36

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.53
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67

First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16


what contract are those NG numbers for? august?

keep on holding guys :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

^ yeah NG does its own thing I still remember when everything was red a few weeks ago and NG just keeps going up, back up to 4.57 if you recall.

anyways i apologize if I made it confusing about the roll over on the charts.

In simple terms, take the roll over on the charts as if price did move, we see the jump from NG from 3.3 to like 3.60 very sharply because of the roll over, and now NG dipped back to about 3.4 because it needs to fill the gap as NG front contract is still trading in the 3.3 range. once everyone rolls over completely, there usually is a dip back to the previous trading range more often than not really before it begin to rise again (assuming NG is ready to make a run here)

so imo I dont think we are headed lower but rather just a quick retest of the previous contract lows around 3.3-3.4 to fill the gap then make a move higher. that is what im expecting anyways

[Dinan]

^^^ thanks, i get it now... thats why there is a back candle stick

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c38/bmw330ci05/ng.png


indicators are looking good...around what price do you think it would be safer to buy in some more?

[SilverRex]

interesting to see DOW continues to move higher, the dip below 8600 was looks like a retest of the breakout (remember I say 8600 is a heavy resistance?

because DOw is way overbought I'm going to suggest DOw to start having more difficulties at around 8725 (down trend line)

but if this is just a head fake but over all still a pull back day expect once it breaks 8600 it will come crashing down

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^^ thanks, i get it now... thats why there is a back candle stick

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c38/bmw330ci05/ng.png


indicators are looking good...around what price do you think it would be safer to buy in some more?

3.50 is a previous support/resistance so now that it shot pass that to 3.60, 3.50 will once again become support.

im holding my faith out that NG will find its way back to about 4.1-4.3

[davidI]

Originally posted by troyl


Isnt Galleon's production heavily gas weighted? If I had extra cash I would be picking up BCF for sure.

GO is about 50/50 oil / gas. They have a pretty solid land position in the Montney though so an increase in gas prices would really help them out.

BCF can be a fun short-term play, if you don't mind a lot of volatility! There's alsot a lot of potential for it as a long-term hold if oil prices rebound.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow what happened to US dollar today

went from 1.16 to 1.11???? in 1 day?

i knew i should have exchanged my us funds!

I'm glad I haven't exchanged my negative US Funds :D

More it drops less I exchange.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow what happened to US dollar today

went from 1.16 to 1.11???? in 1 day?

i knew i should have exchanged my us funds!

I'm glad I haven't exchanged my negative US Funds :D

More it drops less I exchange.

[Dinan]

20 more minutes, lets see how the inventory number play out....:drama:

[KleanCord]

SR>

Rather than believing in a pullback or even a retest you believe we are going to be setting a new low?

I realize that a lot of your analysis is on Elliot Wave theory but don't you think there would have to be a large catalyst to cause us to believe we are back on the brink of armageddon (which is how we felt at 6600).

Elliot Wave tends to have multiple interpretations. In this case what would cause you to change your forecast.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan
20 more minutes, lets see how the inventory number play out....:drama:

c'mon nat gas ... give us a nice surprise so that we can get nice pop.

Dinan, say HNU gets back to $4.50+ are you selling based on what happened last time it popped?

4.30 currently.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


c'mon nat gas ... give us a nice surprise so that we can get nice pop.

Dinan, say HNU gets back to $4.50+ are you selling based on what happened last time it popped?

4.30 currently.

well last time i was planning too, but just my luck it never retested at our market, but it did just before we opened and it fail, i thought it would try again and cash out but it did't and it just went south and didn't sell, but this time it could break through, if i sell it probably will, lol,,,

like SR said, the september contract is over the resistance of 3.50, so i THINK we could pass through this time, keep an eye on 3.50-.53 and how it holds, if it can't then i would sell some...


that you guys think?

[Dinan]

Working gas in storage was 2,886 Bcf as of Friday, July 10, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 90 Bcf from the previous week.


not good!!:facepalm:

[Vanish3d]

I got suckered back in....after sellin at 4 I bought back in with an average now of 4.3

not touching this till 6+ HNU. Its just a matter of time till we see 6+ HNU right?

[Vanish3d]

crazy... my order filled at 4.25 then I click refresh and it was at 4.4

[997TT]

put in a stop at $4.20 when it was $4.35.

now stop at loss at $4.30.

will keep moving it up until i get stopped out

[Dinan]

so there is a inventory build up and this shoots up:dunno:


anyone sell yet... so tempted....


okay well i'm out,, don't want to repeat what happened yesterday, i still got lots if it keeps on going up....

[SilverRex]

ung broken out its 12.50-12.60 resistance. technically looks like its setup for a run. lets hope it plays out that way

[Dinan]

lol, it it breaks the resistance when i sell....:facepalm:

[troyl]

Originally posted by SilverRex
ung broken out its 12.50-12.60 resistance. technically looks like its setup for a run. lets hope it plays out that way

Great to see UNG break through 12.60 :clap:

[Dinan]

thats what i get.... i got scared form the inventory numbers...

[troyl]

NAT GAS going crazy now!!! up almost 5%
HNU 4.57

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by troyl
NAT GAS going crazy now!!! up almost 5%
HNU 4.57

And the sad thing is for most of us, that doesnt even break us even haha:guns:

keep goin up beyotch!:whipped:

[Dinan]

lets hope it breaks above the 10 day moving average. 3.53 ..

[Z_Fan]

I sold my HNU.

Of course it will keep going WAY up now... :banghead:

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Dinan
lets hope it breaks above the 10 day moving average. 3.53 ..

just touched it

[troyl]

Originally posted by Dinan
lets hope it breaks above the 10 day moving average. 3.53 ..
I was gonna say, check out the chart on UNG. Pretty much each time it has broken though and held the 10 day EMA, it has ran hard. Same cant be said for HNU.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


And the sad thing is for most of us, that doesnt even break us even haha:guns:

keep goin up beyotch!:whipped:

Word. I had a buy order in at $4.00 yesterday and the low was $4.01. I was buying enough to average down to $4.50. As it stands, I'm still at $6 :rofl:

[Dinan]

^^ haha.... it happened to me too :thumbsdow

[cosmok]

Originally posted by 997TT


Ya right. I'm working on the title of capital loss king.

still holding HOD at $15.08 :banghead:

just bought 5K HNU at $4.05. See what happens now that i've cursed Nat Gas.
Good buy on the HNU :thumbsup: I got in at $4.09 myself

[Vanish3d]

^^ me too. but bought today at 4.25

i need 6 HNU to recover my loss too

[997TT]

Originally posted by cosmok

Good buy on the HNU :thumbsup: I got in at $4.09 myself

ya moved my stop to $4.50.

holding this thing till i get stopped out. I can pretty much guarantee that i will get stopped out on a dip and it will continue to run.

But who cares... $2k (maybe more) in da bank.

[KleanCord]

Why the run up. I realize UNG broke a technical level but it did so on a bearish report. I haven't been following nat gas this week, what were the expectations?

[Vanish3d]

^^ there will be NO DIPS!!
this is gonna go straaaight up to $8
hahahah.... i wish,

[997TT]

holy f....this is crazy.

up $4k already.

gotta look at seling pretty soon...fundamentals haven't changed much and Nat gas maybe retest lows.... thing is so volatile.

What to do?

[SilverRex]

ung broke 13 dollars and is surging

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
holy f....this is crazy.

up $4k already.

gotta look at seling pretty soon...fundamentals haven't changed much and Nat gas maybe retest lows.... thing is so volatile.

What to do?

remember the HGU play? if you dont know what to do, sell half and let the other run with break even stop loss

[Dinan]

where do you see this stopping?:nut:

[Vanish3d]

If HNU hits $5 today I think I might jump ship and get into HND and hope for a 15% gain on HND.

but if i do that I guarantee HNU will go up another 10%

[Dinan]

i don't think it will pas the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67


i'm looking to sell more around there... i hope it comes close to that...

[Dinan]

SR, are you still in ?

[SilverRex]

^

im going to try to hold its until at least 4.20 NG

[Dinan]

how long do you think that will take??? did you buy in at 4$ hnu too?

[Dinan]

wow, you guys see the future november contract, it's at 4.60 :D

[civic_rida]

Good call sold half my position of hnu at 4.80

[max_boost]

Holy!

HNU! :eek:

I feel bad for those of you guys who sold out early. I do know the feeling. :(

I know I coulda woulda shoulda but if I had dumped another position into HNU, I would be even today. Like I said though, I refused to buy more and I sure as hell ain't buying today, don't want to fall into that 1 day trap! haha

[Dinan]

can't seem to pass the 3.62 pivot point, it will either pop up or head back down to earth soon, maybe i should sell like last time and have it pop :facepalm:

[Vanish3d]

^ so much for selling on every rally haha ;)

[civic_rida]

The way i see it if hnu crashes I'll buy back and if it goes up ill sell the other half.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
^ so much for selling on every rally haha ;)


oh i did, i have positions all over the place, not at one price...:D

so as it goes up i got some to sell

i still got share over 5$ hnu

[Dinan]

next pivot support is 3.45 some way down from here... not sure if i should sell my last position under 5$ hnu and wait for a pull back and back back... it went up 33 cents today, shiat, how much more can it really go :nut: :dunno:

[Vanish3d]

well when it was going down we were all saying "shiat, how much lower can it really go" but it kept going and going and going.... hopefully reverse this time

[djayz]

Just sold a position of HNU at 4.75, you can thank me for the immediate 2 cent rise :D

edit:make that 10 cents:cry:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
well when it was going down we were all saying "shiat, how much lower can it really go" but it kept going and going and going.... hopefully reverse this time

very true!!!!:werd:

[troyl]

There is no stopping this nat gas train!!! This has really brightened up my day.

[Z_Fan]

Wow HNU $4.94 fuck me.

[997TT]

we are entering 20%+ territory people :eek:

still holding

4.93 ..lets go

[troyl]

That will be what a 10K day for you 997?

[Dinan]

sold my last position under 5$... i don't see this goin up anymore today... but i'm sure it will now!:facepalm:

[Z_Fan]

I sold 2500 shares this morning at $4.44

:dunno:

[Nova316]

Originally posted by 997TT
we are entering 20%+ territory people :eek:

still holding

4.93 ..lets go

Think u should sell 1/2 so you can lock in some of your earnings? Since Im sure your playing with quite a bit of $$ haha :) then if it goes back down you can rebuy if it goes up sell the rest? I that way you minimize your risk


Wooo another big move on LVS today

[Z_Fan]

I'd just setting trailing stop losses and hope it keeps going up. LOL.

I was gonna rebuy my HNU at 4.39 but didn't. Made breakfast, came back and it was 4.7x already. *FUCK ME*

I was hoping for a repeat of the other day...and instead, because I did something, I got burned - again.

[997TT]

I only got 5k at $4.05 so its about $4k profit.

Nat gas is probably the most volatile stock (since i stopped playing FAZ/FAS) that i have ever invested in.

My max investment on either HND/HNU will be $40k tops. It too scary to go any higher ... at least for me. Akalani might offer a differnt opinion ... didn't he say he was holding 30K shares.

i took my position yesterday thinking i would buy another 5k in shares when it dropped to $3. lol.

who knows that might happen next week.

[Nova316]

^^ ahh okay I thought u had 20k invest my bad.
I use to play FAS/FAZ but it was a gamble of setting sell prices and stop losses and seeing which one hit first, I was successful 2/3 times which isnt to bad my sell price was 15% my stop loss was 8% not sure why 8% it just seemed to make sense then

[Dinan]

wow, what a day for HNU!!!!!



lets see if the 20 day resistance will keep it from going any further... looks like nothing is going to stop it now :rofl:

[SilverRex]

congrad to those who stuck with hnu at the low :)

anyways the US dollar is looking like it wants to head lower.

fun times now, DOW above 9000 come on

[Vanish3d]

hmmm dare I jump out of HNU and into HND for a quick flip... then hopefully back in HNU

[Z_Fan]

Welp, I once again really fucked up. :poosie:

You got to wonder about HNU today. That's crazy shit right there. Didn't see that one coming... ;)

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
congrad to those who stuck with hnu at the low :)

anyways the US dollar is looking like it wants to head lower.

fun times now, DOW above 9000 come on

you don't think it will go back down...?

[Dinan]

lets see how true is it....

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


you don't think it will go back down...?

I dont play nearly as much as others on here so I have no worries even if it suddenly dips back and makes a new low at 3.15 I'll just buy more.

with the DOW technically poise to make new highs, I think NG is ready to make a serious run.

I'll start unwinding my position when it gets to about 4.2-4.3, and if NG breaks that level I'll buy back when it retest the breakout for a run to 6-7 dollars.

the simpliest of strategy is to sell half. cant go wrong either way

also doesnt anyone realize these days oil isnt moving as much? perhaps the funds that came out of oil is now playing NG :D

[SilverRex]

oh DOW is approching 8725, I do expect it to get rejected here.

the best case scenario is for the DOW to pull back once it reach that level and start consolidating in some sort of bullish flag pattern between 8600-8700, and when it comes of the over bought condition significantly, it will then make another move higher this time taking out its previous top at around 8875

[997TT]

would be nice to see a pullback so I can take some positions in some equities.

TCK.B :facepalm:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
would be nice to see a pullback so I can take some positions in some equities.

TCK.B :facepalm:

what you have your eye on?/

LVS is going strong!

[civic_rida]

i know wondering if i should sell it or keep it.

[997TT]

^
I would like to rebuy into PDN, OSK, TCK.B and BNK.

should've never sold is what i should done :banghead:

like a poster said yesterday ... buying a stock at a higher price happens too often in my portfolio

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
^
I would like to rebuy into PDN, OSK, TCK.B and BNK.

should've never sold is what i should done :banghead:

like a poster said yesterday ... buying a stock at a higher price happens too often in my portfolio


nice list.... no US stocks? other then LVS :D

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
holy fawkin HNU.

Was hoping it would bounce around 4 bucks for another few days....just enough for me to get home and cash my paycheque and bring my average down to under 5 bucks.

My avg is 5.19 currently. Don't get me wrong, I'm happy....I'm happy.....but also greedy. I was hoping to bend this one over the pool table for one big hurrah. :rofl:


dont' worry, it doesn't look like it won't close above 3.67, so the short term low is not set, so there is still a chance for even lower NG......:dunno:

[Rat Fink]

.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oh DOW is approching 8725, I do expect it to get rejected here.

the best case scenario is for the DOW to pull back once it reach that level and start consolidating in some sort of bullish flag pattern between 8600-8700, and when it comes of the over bought condition significantly, it will then make another move higher this time taking out its previous top at around 8875

Dow now at 8734- what are you thinking if it closes above 8725?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex


I dont play nearly as much as others on here so I have no worries even if it suddenly dips back and makes a new low at 3.15 I'll just buy more.

with the DOW technically poise to make new highs, I think NG is ready to make a serious run.

I'll start unwinding my position when it gets to about 4.2-4.3, and if NG breaks that level I'll buy back when it retest the breakout for a run to 6-7 dollars.

the simpliest of strategy is to sell half. cant go wrong either way

also doesnt anyone realize these days oil isnt moving as much? perhaps the funds that came out of oil is now playing NG :D

Good post.

Hear that guys? Next time, SELL HALF. lol :thumbsup:

[eljefe]

Originally posted by max_boost


Good post.

Hear that guys? Next time, SELL HALF. lol :thumbsup:

I sold a quarter (1000 shares) at 4.88 of what I had. Nice to have some buffer but I am sticking the course on the rest and looking for NG over $4

[997TT]

stopped out of 3k at $4.80 over lunch.

holding the remaining 2k for now. If HNU ever gets back to $4, will just add more

[yellowsnow]

AVM

oh yeah baby :drool: