Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
stopped out of 3k at $4.80 over lunch.

holding the remaining 2k for now. If HNU ever gets back to $4, will just add more

don't worry, we still in a trading range like SR said, might even get to see 3.15 NG.......

[djayz]

Letter gives EnCana three months to leave or attacks will ‘get a lot worse'
Wendy Stueck
16:01 EST Thursday, Jul 16, 2009
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Vancouver — EnCana Corp. has been warned to shut down its operations in northeastern British Columbia “before things get a lot worse.”

A handwritten, two-page letter that arrived Wednesday at the Dawson Creek Daily News is directed specifically to EnCana Corp., the paper said today, and demands the company stop all activities in the area.

The letter demands EnCana return “the land” to what it was before EnCana began extracting natural gas in “the area” eight years ago, “including your fancy gas plant at Kelly Lake.”

The letter gives the company a timeline of five years to complete the task and three months to begin pulling out of the area.

“You have three months to convince the residents here and the general public that you will commit to this program, meaning that all action against you will cease for three months from the time of this note,” the letter says.

“We can all have a summer vacation including your security personnel and the RCMP, who have not helped you to date anyway.”

There have been six attacks against EnCana natural gas infrastructure since last October.

The letter calls the first six explosions, which began last October and included two this month, as “minor” and “fully controlled.”

A threatening letter was sent to local newspapers before the first attack occurred last fall.

RCMP have launched a major investigation into the attacks, and EnCana has offered a $500,000 reward.

Nobody has been injured in the attacks, but they have resulted in gas leaks that were quickly contained.

All of British Columbia's 4,000 producing oil and gas wells are located in the northeastern part of the province, and many of those are concentrated around the Dawson Creek area, east of the Rockies.

In 1996, the industry was worth about $370-million in revenues to the province. By 2006, that figure had jumped to $2.5-billion, mostly related to natural gas projects.

With files from The Canadian Press

Looks like somebody bought too much natural gas when it was higher up now they want to take production offline :rofl:

Nice reward though $500,000!

[guessboi]

wow the day I missed the market, HNU went up 15%...
I should do that more often. lol. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

friday. doesnt seem too bad of a week other than the fact the expected little rally on monday turned out to be the begining of a big run. I full expect a pull back today to reset some over bought conditions

looking at the dollar while breaking below 79.50 was quite bearish technically, it has since formed a + divergence to price and has slowly moved back above 79.50 again. The only thing to note is that it is now in over bought territory.

so if the pull back for the US dollar continues, I only expect it to reach as far as about 79.90 ans the trend should resume. In the event it breaks above that down trend line, then this whole run recently may be questioned. Does it imply we are not done yet going side ways? back to 80.65? I hope not, this side way grind has lasted many weeks and I feel we are at a very close breakout or break down point. Again with the over bought reading, I expect dollar weakness can at any moment resume.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071709.jpg

and for gold, the 937-947 area provided the needed resistance as mention yesterday. if gold suddenly reverses this morning by breaking above 937 I continue to feel the most it can achieve is 947 today. Gold continues to find alot of selling pressure up top. but if things go according to plan it should slowly grind lower and test support at 928 and max down side today at about 920.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold071709.jpg

and finally looking at DOW, I mention 8725 area to reject price and it did because breaking this would signal new highs for DOW coming however it really needs to pull back as it is quite heavily overbought, and so I expect 8600 continue to provide support until it makes another attampt to crack it. But cannot rule out a sudden sell off back to about 8350 because if the US dollar index re-enters above 80, which means the break down was false then this could drag all sectors back down yet again.

Quite tiresome isnt it? all we can do is look at the trend and pick our spots. unless DOW somehow dips and rebound and breaks yesterdays high or the dollar suddenly resumes breaking below 79.50, then yes the run could suddenly continues. but that is just too power ful, I only expect a regular day with regular activity and that is for the market to pull back a bit, consolidate for a few days then continue higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow071709.jpg

now how bar NG? wow the move yesterday was impressive, you really have to look at it all by itself. the sharp advance bar that suddenly surged upward is quite big imo. Usually or typically in a strong rise like that with very little or no pull back, I can only suggest NG will at least move higher than yesterday's high. NG is so volatile it can if it wants to make yet another 30 cent run. That is why if you hadnt loaded up when it tested the bottom near 3.25, it will be difficult to catch the train since it can go either way quickly and sharply.

I've already suggested countless time when NG first broke below 3.70-3.87 that its a matter of time until it retest the low at 3.25, but I didnt expect 3.5 to not hold for a first rally. Who knows dipping to 3.22 is probablly its way of taking out stops.

ok was going to skip but seeing something here for oil.

oil is forming like an ascending triangle and notice how it cannot break above 62 which is a pretty flat resistance but yet a uptrend is pushing price higher and higher. well typically this is a bullish pattern. so if it can break above 62, I expect first stop to punch to 64 quickly.

but of course keep in mind patterns are not 100% so if it breaks the purple uptrend line which now stands at 61, then oil is headed back down

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oiltoday-2.jpg

[SilverRex]

havent seen this type of bullish momentum for a while. while technically I expect things to pull back

yet gold looking like it wants to march to 947, euro looks like it wants to test yesterday's high

and oil looks like it wants to break above 62 and hit 64.

wow

ok confirmation that the run could continue will be gold over 937, euro over 4129, dow breaking yesterdays high at 8739.55 and oil over 62

so other than DOW 1 hour being extreme overbought I must say all other sectors stoch is ready to make another move.

[Dinan]

maybe we should buy back some HNU while it's still in RED...

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


I think some people try and play the market too much. That happened to me in a very big way when I started trading full-time. I woke up every day thinking I had to make a trade. I started making mental notes on how much I would've made by playing major trends vs. trading the hell out of something day to day and I would've been further ahead on several cases by holding for the bigger move.

Only time I made good money trading the heck out of something was when I was on the bid and ask shaking around various venture companies playing the holes on the L2.

Trade too much and you end up being like the puppy that chases its tail in the infield while the other dogs have crossed the finish line.

Best thing to happen to me was distancing myself from the market these days. The truck driving has also helped with it. (first time checking the market in the last couple days). I do my research, I do my chart reading (I like candlesticks mixed with the western indicators), and then let the market play it out.

Also, don`t let those "should've would've could'ves" eat away at you too much because they might make you do something dumb in the future. Just make your system and stick to your system. If you miss a trade who cares? There's going to be another one right around the corner!:rofl:

Very important words here. I found the same sort of stuff to be true and struggled more when trading full time.

[Vanish3d]

$5 HNU :D

just one more dollar to break even haha

[SilverRex]

ung broke above yesterday's high of 13.31 (now at 13.33) see if its a false break out day or real break out continuation

[Super_Geo]

What's the deal with HNU? Is it a NG Futures ETF? I'm just jumping in to the game here, but why is it up when NG is down on the NYMEX?

[Vanish3d]

dunno what you're talking about cuz NG is up on NYMEX

[bigbadboss101]

earlier NG was down and HNU was up.

Let see a multiday run!!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
earlier NG was down and HNU was up.

Let see a multiday run!!

thats because at 4pm when the market closed NG dropped off and after it gained some ground to close at 3.66 and that's why when NG was red this morning HNU was green cause it was above the price it closed at 4 ... typing fast, hope it makes sense ...



i'm going to stay out of HNU today, see how it plays out...



i'll my positions are above 5$ now... not sure when to buy some more, maybe 3.5 NG, hope it would at least come and test back down there....

what you guys think....

[Dinan]

Natural gas rebounded strongly to as high as 3.68 and at this point, further rise is still possible. But after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by 3.717 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before decline from 4.138 represents resumption of the larger down trend. Below 3.225 will bring retest of 3.115 low first and break there will confirm this bearish case and target 3.0 psychological level next. However, sustained break of 3.717 will delay the bearish view and argue that more sideway consolidation would be seen between 3.115 and 4.575 first. In such case, a test of 4.387/575 resistance zone would possibly be seen in near term.

In the bigger picture, recent development is inline with our bearish view that whole down trend from 13.69 is still in progress. Fall from 4.138 is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend after finishing triangle consolidation from 3.155. The whole fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 in 2005. Hence upon break of 3.155 low, further decline should be seen to 100% projection of 15.78 to 4.593 from 13.69 at 2.50.

On the upside, however, break of 4.575 resistance will in turn argue that Natural gas has already bottomed out at 3.155 and could pave the wave for strong rebound to 38.2% retracement of 13.69 to 3.15 at 7.18 and possibly above.

[troyl]

Picked up a few VST today, broke through the 50 day MA. I like the other technicals on it aswell.

[SilverRex]

nymex prices are delayed.

[Dinan]

i use this Real Time (http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/datasuite-server/dataSuite.html?template=fut&productCode=NG&assetClassURL=http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy-metals/&header=new) quotes, looks like it's real time...

[civic_rida]

So ngas broke 3.717

[Dinan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
So ngas broke 3.717

for now, i guess it has to hold and close above... then we could see near term of 4.387/575 .... thats what i got out of that... but it also says "However, sustained break of 3.717 will delay the bearish view and argue that more sideway consolidation would be seen between 3.115 and 4.575 first"

i don't like the part "delay of bearish view".....so we could still see 3.15, who knows, only time will tell... :dunno:

[bigbadboss101]

Hard to predict eh? I sold some HOU and HNU this morning and now it's up. Gonna hold the rest of my HNU. In longer term it will be just fine.

[SilverRex]

DOW is breaking out of its triangle flag pattern on the 15 min chart.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
DOW is breaking out of its triangle flag pattern on the 15 min chart.

what are your thoughts on NG?


all these analysis are talking out their A$$ .... some say we can get 2$NG easy, other say we can get another .50 cents to a dollar by year end...


you seem to be more realistic from past predictions....:thumbsup:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

^

i think oil temporary is done 64 should hold

also watch for DOW to dip below 8700 then sell off begins

[Dinan]

So no more up side for the DOW?

[SilverRex]

as long as 8700 isnt broken I think DOW is very much still in upmove, but since its friday, and its over bought, just not sure the upside potential here.

[Dinan]

SR did you buy any HOD today?

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

i think oil temporary is done 64 should hold


So with gold not moving much today and oil sticking under $64 do you still expect them to grind lower?

[Dinan]

there is the sell off...so if the DOW closes under 8700, how far down do you think we will go..?



"Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted."

so i guess it takes few closes above 3.66 to confirm a short term low......

[Rat Fink]

.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
Fuck, I've been waiting around my laptop all morning for 7:30. Now I checked my CIBC account and was about to smash things because they weren't being updated.

Damn this trucking makes me lose track of what day it is. Have a good weekend! :banghead:

Haha. I regulary forget that saturday. Check the prices and they are still the same. Thinking WTF???

hahahaha

[troyl]

Nat Gas 3.76, up 0.09. Hope it will hold into our open.

[SilverRex]

ok monday, brand new week, good news is, we may finally have some direction. as I have been suggesting over the last week or so, the US dollar was indeed ina trianglular pattern which will eventually result in a break down and so after breaking below its triangle, there was just no momentum holding it back up and thus after retesting the breakdown up trend line, it continued the weakness over night.

what this means? well big time confirmation that US dollar is headed for its final wave 5 in this counter trend correction. Why wave 5? again for those unfamiliar with EW charts, typically when you see a triangle pattern it usually indicate it is in its 4 wave with a break out of a 5th wave to its original trend and for the US dollar, the original trend was down, so we are very much in the last leg of the US dollar's weakness before a real bottom will be found.

first test will be the 78.33, for all I know the bottom could be 78.33, 77.7 or even in the 76, either way right now just think weak US dollar is all you need to care.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072009.jpg

now if this is the case that means strong oil right? while that is true but just because we see new lows in the US dollar does not mean we have to see new highs for oil. consider oil isnt moving nearly as much as it should so take caution when going long.

right now oil is over bought and the nearest heaviest resistance area is around 66-66.3 I fully expect oil to not able to pass thru 66.3 on first attampt, also take note that the chart hasnt rolled over to its next month's contract and could any time roll over so really we could already been trading a dollar higher either way watch for 66.3 to hold and a break below that trend channel at about 62 as of right now then new lows for oil will be on the way.

only if 66.3 is taken out to the upside we than evaulate oil potentially may ben having some strength left to test the 70s. otherwise think short oil, as the market pulls back (if it does) oil will drop pretty fast imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072009.jpg

and for gold, not much surprise, since it broke the very solid down trend line it just never looked back, now that it broken 947 there is plenty of strength in the short term, while over all is bearish imo, I expect gold 957 to be the max upside, its over bought as well, but breaking the 940s will mean 943-947 will initially offer a buy swing point so expect a 947-957 trading range for now.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072009.jpg

finally quick look at the DOW, even though its quite heavily overbought I guess all the good news like intel, GS and JPM just keeps driving the market up or is it really because its all about the dollar? 9725 was sort of like the resistance I was expecting to hold, but the late day surge has me convinced the rally could continue this morning, its almost seems like unless we run into a pretty big news that is negative, DOW will not come down, so I imagine we could have two scenario, one is sharp move higher that will then see DOW come back down to retest the broken down trend line then make an attack higher or suddenly we run into a sell off back to a normal fibo retracement some where between 8350-8500 reset some over bought condition, then make a move higher. again the only thing you need to know is we have strengh in the short term, so any signifcant dips should be viewed as a buying opportunity. I believe the DOw is very much headed to test 9400 at a min.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow072009.jpg

[SilverRex]

as for NG, while the recent run is very encouraging, we are not out of the woods yet, we NG is to make it to 6-7, it has to over come some pretty big hurdles, such as first taking out 4.07 over head resistance, then the 4.32 down trend line and also its double top at 4.57

giving three powerful resistance levels, over all alot of indicator still points NG to the down side and again with a measured EW move, we could worse case scenario see a down side risk to NG to about 1.9-2 bucks, ouch

that is why dont blindly go long with out a stop.

with the recent DOW rally, weak US dollar which yes in the mean time give some life to oil which inturns pushes NG back up, but for all we know it could be short lived, if oil top side is 66 with next target down to about 52-55, then NG would probablly be unable to crack 4.32

there fore until NG formulate a more solid bottom, there will be a lot of sell pressure coming in as soon as the market roll overs or pull back.

so if you find your self in the green, continue take profit off the table but reducing your position and exposure. Again some key numbers are 4.07, 4.32 and 4.57 those would be logical take profit area. rather safe then sorry. even if NG does break out and head for 6-7, it will be similar to oil breaking 55 and headed for 73, there is always opportunity. But if the break out is not now, then down side risk is equally dangerous and we could quickly see Ng fall back to its recent lows.

NG support levels will be 3.15, 3.00 then possibly s hard sell off into the 2.40-2.6 range.

[cosmok]

Wow NG is dropping fast

[Vanish3d]

looks like im seconds away from getting stopped out at 4.7

[Vanish3d]

yup.... out of HNU... now watch it climb up for the rest of the day haha

[Rarasaurus]

CIT got a loan and is now away from bankruptcy for a while. Might go up hard today.

[KleanCord]

looks like LVS is in the middle of a massive short covering. Hopefully it can run even a fraction of what happened last time this happened.

[KleanCord]

SR>

I entered a long position on gold back on July 13th when it seasonally performs well through to September. I am wondering why you think the general trend is bearish at this point, whereas you were more bullish a few months back.

I am guessing it is technical, but fundamentally India's wedding season is coming up in September and October and Gold has underperformed other commodities in relation to the US dollar.

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
yup.... out of HNU... now watch it climb up for the rest of the day haha
Me too, out at 4.80... made some great cash though!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KleanCord
SR>

I entered a long position on gold back on July 13th when it seasonally performs well through to September. I am wondering why you think the general trend is bearish at this point, whereas you were more bullish a few months back.

I am guessing it is technical, but fundamentally India's wedding season is coming up in September and October and Gold has underperformed other commodities in relation to the US dollar.

yes I am still bullish in the very higher up longer time frame, while short term is bullish as well but medium term, when I think the US dollar gains strength once it bottoms out, it will eventually drag gold back down. of course things change if gold say breaks 957 then it could very well headed for a test of near 990 and breaking higher than that has the potential to make new highs. but until that happens I'm going to anticipate we will see new lows before new highs. in your case your best bet is hoping to catch the big fish (if I Am wrong) technically you will see gold has a up trend line holding it up from 681, and about 905. use that as your guide and just follow that up trend support. if that ever breaks, then consider gold is indeed headed lower

[Dinan]

i should have gone with my gut feeling and sold some shares even at 5.25 .....


anyways.. maybe 3.43 would be a good time to buy some HNU for a bounce off the support :dunno:

[Vanish3d]

^ Orrrrr you can buy HND :nut:

[Nova316]

Wow LVS is moving :nut:

[Dinan]

yeah, what is up with LVS :eek: i sold out early, never thought it would keep on going...

[davidI]

Haha, NG is on its way back up...

Made a nice profit on BCF today. Getting murdered on UTS though. C'mon SU / PCA, buy them out already!!!

[troyl]

HNU coming back strong, I might take a loss and sell if we can get above 5.00.

[troyl]

Originally posted by davidI
Haha, NG is on its way back up...

Made a nice profit on BCF today. Getting murdered on UTS though. C'mon SU / PCA, buy them out already!!!
Nice pop on BCF today :thumbsup:

[Vanish3d]

of course NG is up since im not in it anymore.
highly debating jumping into HND at 11.0x

[max_boost]

Oh baby, 10,500, where to set the stop? :dunno:

[DRKM]

In at 11.89 with 1k in HGU. Looking to sell over 12...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Oh baby, 10,500, where to set the stop? :dunno:

not sure if your going to stick with the hold for a few years

but if the market is going to dive again and you wish to find a way to exit,

then sell half now, then sell half again if it goes up every 5-10%

I expect once the DOw puts in a high some where in the 9-10k range, thats when the US dollar will bottom out and start changing direction.

while im bullish on gold long term, short term this rally may not last. but key is watch the up trend line off 681 and 905, if this breaks, we should see below 900 again

[Dinan]

shouldn't gold move up while the US dollar is heading down?


NG is bouncing off the low's of today....

[max_boost]

997TT, thoughts on TCK.B? :devil:

SR, I might just sit on it. Part of me wants to sell on a run up and buy back on a correction but of course that's just wishful thinking. Who knows how much longer we will stay in this 9500-10,500 trading range. I'm so impatient that I will probably mess it all up.

[997TT]

Originally posted by max_boost
997TT, thoughts on TCK.B? :devil:

SR, I might just sit on it. Part of me wants to sell on a run up and buy back on a correction but of course that's just wishful thinking. Who knows how much longer we will stay in this 9500-10,500 trading range. I'm so impatient that I will probably mess it all up.

My thoughts are Wow ... serverely underestimated its ability to run up....thinking everyday there would be a pullback. Instead its 5%+

[Vanish3d]

holly shit, TCK.B is a fucking monster. I just looked at the charts for the first time ever. Thats pretty intense. can this really keep going though??

[KleanCord]

One of the biggest problems in trading is listening to other people. Not the people on this board though :)

I wish I didn't listen to everyone that said Teck was done for, I would have made a killing. Yet another lesson learned, do your own due dilligence.

[bg_27]

Yah I have been actively trading tck, that thing is incredible with its intraday volatility. I bought tck at 3 something, but was reallly worried about insolvency and long term viability of the company, so I sold... now its 24-25... But I have made quite a bit trading actively.

[yellowsnow]

AVM just keeps going up :D rumor is they will get new financing approved on wednesday...

[Dinan]

Natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.641 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.454 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.79
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.14

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.45
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 3.23

[SilverRex]

So for today oil chart finallyed rolled over and we have price hitting 65.77 as of right now. I fully expect oil to turn around some where between 66-67.6 good apportunity to go short any where in that level with stops above 67.6

which means NG if there is any more upside should be limited. imo some critical resistance for NG is at 4.07 and 4.32
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072109.jpg


for gold the sell presure between 947-957 will be significant right now it does appear oil, gold and DOW wants to push just alittle higher and so I expect gold unable to break away from 957 this morning. so look for short opporunity

the US dollar looks like its in a downward trend channel if it resume downward I would say it will force a divergence to price and may put in a rally back to some where in the 79.50. this would be ideal since DOW is near its critical resistance at 8875, gold doesnt have much more room to go and oil too is at an important level.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072109.jpg
so if things work on the way the charts are telling me I expect the market to open up a bit than dip, this dip will more or less be just a pull back before resuming its original trend. so hopefully DOW will top out soon then pull back to between 8600-8700 before resuming.

[troyl]

http://www.tsx.com/en/pdf/short_positions/Jul15-2009.pdf

For you Teck holders, almost a 3 million increase in short positions. Make em pay! Good luck.

[SilverRex]

picked up some hod below 13

[997TT]

markets turning around fast.

TCK, LVS opened up decently and sold off really fast on profit taking i assume.

I'm sitting on HND from yesterday. :banghead:

HOD .. i might have to follow you SR as i'm sure about 8-10 others will

edit: in HOD $13.10
with my position in HND/HOD i hope the commodities pull back a bit. else, i'll be in the market for a Kia soon

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
picked up some hod below 13

thanks for the heads up, i'll be looking to pick some up.... :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
markets turning around fast.

TCK, LVS opened up decently and sold off really fast on profit taking i assume.

I'm sitting on HND from yesterday. :banghead:

HOD .. i might have to follow you SR as i'm sure about 8-10 others will

edit: in HOD $13.10
with my position in HND/HOD i hope the commodities pull back a bit. else, i'll be in the market for a Kia soon

hahaha, i'll give you my 05 330ci for your TT :D the 330 is modded :) it will be a big jump down to a kia lol,


yeah LVS is ripping it up, i sold too early as usual :banghead: you still holding..... i'm thinking of picking up some HND too.... but i hope NG pop's up a bit more to free up some funds i got....

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
picked up some hod below 13
What's your exit point?

[Dinan]

SR, would you recommended buying some HND....?


"So for today oil chart finallyed rolled over and we have price hitting 65.77 as of right now. I fully expect oil to turn around some where between 66-67.6 good apportunity to go short any where in that level with stops above 67.6"


you don't think we will hit 66-67 to short then? why did you decide to go short now at 65...


ohhh, wait it's the september contract...
:thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

HND is too volatile it can snap up just as quickly as it does down. I'll rather stick with oil which is more stable.

on the other hand when NG gets to a good buying level thats a different story

[tryingtobebest1]

Originally posted by troyl
http://www.tsx.com/en/pdf/short_positions/Jul15-2009.pdf

For you Teck holders, almost a 3 million increase in short positions. Make em pay! Good luck.


Does that mean TCK will go down badly?

[troyl]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1



Does that mean TCK will go down badly?

No no, not at all. That report shows the net change in short positions from Jun 30-July 15. If teck keeps rising like it is, they will be forced to cover, or should, which in turn would drive up the share price more.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
HND is too volatile it can snap up just as quickly as it does down. I'll rather stick with oil which is more stable.

on the other hand when NG gets to a good buying level thats a different story \\


makes sense... where is your exit point on HOD ?>

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by 997TT
markets turning around fast.

TCK, LVS opened up decently and sold off really fast on profit taking i assume.

I'm sitting on HND from yesterday. :banghead:

HOD .. i might have to follow you SR as i'm sure about 8-10 others will

edit: in HOD $13.10
with my position in HND/HOD i hope the commodities pull back a bit. else, i'll be in the market for a Kia soon

I jumped in and shorted TCK last week, good thing I covered at a half dollar a share loss.

But now in this range I want TCK to make one last push to $26.69 or close to. Fact remains that they still overpaid for their coal business, they were overvalued last year and they sold off a lot of profitable business models this year. I am not an expert on business valuations but it seems to me that TCK has made a huge run and it is one that could be punished the most by any downturn in materials.

Anyone out there have a different POV to bring to the table? I would be really interested to know if I am selling TCK short (pun intended).

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1



Does that mean TCK will go down badly?

You should note it does mean people are betting TCK will go down, whether they are smart or not.

Example:
RIM prior to their earnings in April they were the most heavily shorted company on the TSX. Since they beat earnings so bad and expectations were so low it caused to the company to jump by about 25% overnight. That is an example of when heavy short interest helps the longs.

However, companies that are heavily shorted could indicate there is something fundamentally wrong with them. Lehman Brothers before their collapse along with the other banks were heavily shorted.

The best way to play it would be to cut off ties if there is a long slow decline in the stock as people keep selling out. But definitely keep it if you see vicious rallies. Take a look at TCK back around the third week of April. It shot up like 20% in one day on huge volume. I remember that day they announced some sort of financing extension and the short fell over each other trying to cover.

[troyl]

A great article about a short squeeze, did a paper on it.

http://www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12523898

[997TT]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I jumped in and shorted TCK last week, good thing I covered at a half dollar a share loss.

But now in this range I want TCK to make one last push to $26.69 or close to. Fact remains that they still overpaid for their coal business, they were overvalued last year and they sold off a lot of profitable business models this year. I am not an expert on business valuations but it seems to me that TCK has made a huge run and it is one that could be punished the most by any downturn in materials.

Anyone out there have a different POV to bring to the table? I would be really interested to know if I am selling TCK short (pun intended).

I have followed TCK pretty close for the past 1.5 years (still own it in my LT portfolio that my broker manages). Have day-traded it consistently past 6-8 months.
At these levels i think its dead money ST (thought so at $18ish and was wrong...lol) and now $24 i would either sit on the
sidelines or short it like you. If the TSX pulls back, TCK will fall very hard imo.

We'll see how it plays out.

HND ... what a see-saw. Glad i'm sitting on 4k shares ...making my morning interesting for sure. NOt necesarily in a good way either....

[Big Daddy G]

Anyone into HEB?

Up 80 cents in the last 2 days

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


I have followed TCK pretty close for the past 1.5 years (still own it in my LT portfolio that my broker manages). Have day-traded it consistently past 6-8 months.
At these levels i think its dead money ST (thought so at $18ish and was wrong...lol) and now $24 i would either sit on the
sidelines or short it like you. If the TSX pulls back, TCK will fall very hard imo.

We'll see how it plays out.

HND ... what a see-saw. Glad i'm sitting on 4k shares ...making my morning interesting for sure. NOt necesarily in a good way either....

i'm tempted to get in HND too,,,, what price you got in at?

[bigbadboss101]

Ok folks, I am about to sell all my HNU. Prepare for it to go up up up!

[Dinan]

this is why holding a 2x leverage stock sucks... NG at 3.70 and HNU is at 5$ it should have been at least .50 cents more...


lets hope we get another .25cents on HNU .....

[troyl]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Ok folks, I am about to sell all my HNU. Prepare for it to go up up up!

I am ready to hit the sell button here as well.

[KRZY403]

haha good call on hod by SR! look at oil drop!

[SilverRex]

euro negative divergence, both gold, euro and oil ready to make a move lower.

once oil breakd the sharp ascending wedge namely by breaking below today's low then the fun begins

[Dinan]

would you still buy HOD, i missed it !!

[997TT]

Dinan, in at 11.61 Mfkr :banghead:

only down 0.30/share now.

[RX_EVOLV]

am I the only one that bought HGD here hah

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
am I the only one that bought HGD here hah

I did too... what you get in at?

[RX_EVOLV]

just recently. Yesterday at $6.30

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
just recently. Yesterday at $6.30

Yeah 6.37 for me

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
Dinan, in at 11.61 Mfkr :banghead:

only down 0.30/share now.


you almost there....you got in a bit early, under 11 seemed a really good entry price...

and tottaly forgot to short gold... cheaper then HOD too...

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by Dinan





and tottaly forgot to short gold... cheaper then HOD too...

Probably isn't a horrible price to jump in still

[Red@8]

I just sold HOU and bought HOD.

This means we should see $150bbl oil by the end of the week. :D

[KRZY403]

so anyone have an idea on an exit price for hod ?

[997TT]

oil currently at 63.75.

Below $63.28 minor support flips bias back to downside to retest $58.32. Break there will confirm decline to $54.66

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/crude-oil-daily-technical-outlook-200907217791/

See how the next few days play out ... Q2 earnings from major independents, USD strength, inventory reports etc

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KRZY403
so anyone have an idea on an exit price for hod ?

couldnt agree more with the previous post, the low 63 area will be key. breaking below 63 will bring 58-60 oil back quickly. and of course why wouldnt oil goto 55? its all to close.

the way to do it is either sell at around low 63 then buy back when it retest the breakout or sell half and hope oil breaks down because if it does, then it would be another sharp impusle to the down side that should take out 58 easily an onto 55.

expect 63 oil to put in a bit of a fight

[Euro_Trash]

^^ What about for gold?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
oil currently at 63.75.

Below $63.28 minor support flips bias back to downside to retest $58.32. Break there will confirm decline to $54.66

http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/crude-oil-daily-technical-outlook-200907217791/

See how the next few days play out ... Q2 earnings from major independents, USD strength, inventory reports etc


63.75 ??? isn't that the old contract?

[SilverRex]

^ thats true

should be looking a the new one

[Dinan]

^^ oil is bouncing up a bit now, is this a good entry piont?


thanks