Official Short-term Investments Thread

[civic_rida]

Wow these group buys never workout lol:banghead:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
So a safe stop would be 12.20

hmm might of made a wrong calculation here, the high at 67.49 we hit today = HOD at 12.55

so I guess tight stop below 12.55, if oil punches thru 67.6, then all bets are off for oil going to 58 in the short term, and we could be running a higher oil price

[SilverRex]

move your stops to zero when oil retest 65.76 which will be key support. unless oil can crash thru that then 64, it looks awefully dangerous. play it safe or sell half

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
move your stops to zero when oil retest 65.76 which will be key support. unless oil can crash thru that then 64, it looks awefully dangerous. play it safe or sell half

what you mean?? sell half at 64 oil, and no stops, so it's looking good then?


okay, got it,,, sell half or all at 65.75..... cool

what HOD is that?

[997TT]

for you guys holding HNU

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas' rebound resumes and extends further to as high as 3.904 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 3.641 minor support holds and further rally should be seen towards 4.138 resistance next. Nevertheless, note that such rebound is treated as part of the whole consolidation from 3.155 and hence, upside should be limited below 4.387 resistance to conclude such consolidation. On the downside, below 3.641 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a test on 3.155/225 support zone.

This article is referencing the Aug contract which has NG at $3.57 but i suspect if Aug continues to slide Sep will be right behind it. Sep currently at 3.74.

That being said, NG was bullish until inventory news then $3.64 support became a thing of the past. so who knows how it will play out.

[Dinan]

You still holding HND?

[997TT]

I did the famous sell and rebuy at a higher price move.

I'm getting freaking awesome at this....i should consider having a seminar to showcase "how not to trade stocks"

Ya, so i'm still in HND.

[Dinan]

Ouch! How long you planning on holding it?

How about HOD? LoL! I'm getting a bit worried,

I should learn from Max lol and don't fight the force lol

[civic_rida]

set a stop and then you will have no worries.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan
Ouch! How long you planning on holding it?

How about HOD? LoL! I'm getting a bit worried,

I should learn from Max lol and don't fight the force lol

In my wet myself at night scenario, i would love to walk HNU back to $4 while holding HND.

then flip over to HNU. Who knows what will happen.
All i know is technical support of 3.64 broke and bias favors downside. I just hope it plays out technically ....

I wish i got HOD at your price. holding at $13.30. :banghead:

[cosmok]

^^My average is around there as well :rofl:

[Dinan]

Stops are good and all but when it works out right! When I get stopped out it likes to bounce after lol

[Vanish3d]

DOW is at 9093 right now, does that mean we're going straight to 9400??

[Dinan]

come on! lets get a sell off end of the day!


YES YES!!! SELL SELL!!! come on! :)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
DOW is at 9093 right now, does that mean we're going straight to 9400??

well give or take a few pts, we need to close below 9088 for sure, there are so many ways how a resistance level holds, but surely if this level does not provide the wall we need, then yes, there appears nothing to stand in the way between 9088 and 9400 other than the over bought indicators.

anyhood, closing below 9088 is good start. euro and gold both came off their highs. the only thing silly is oil hasnt really moved down. but now that we are near at some very strong key levels aka dollar index in the low 78.3, very important it has to hold if a pull back is to be on the table. if we suddenly see a break of new lows of the dollar, then this rally will continue it will kill our hopes for lower oil prices in the short term.

that is why we need oil to hold the line at 67.6

one encouraging thought is a cyclist is throwing out there an idea that there is a cycle turn date on July 22-23. which is now. and suppose if he's calls are correct, should mark a temp low for the dollar (dollar touched off 78.42 this morning)

you can kill me if im wrong but so far the key areas like gold 957, is holding and euro has broken down from a trend channel slowly moving lower and lower. lets hope oil and dow will follow

[Dinan]

okay so we closed below! good news for now....:dunno:


:dunno: lots of volume in HNU.....13% down, maybe it was a okay buy today???

what are your thoughts SR???

[Dinan]

Crude oil closed up $1.82 at $67.23 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three week high today as bulls did gain some fresh upside technical momentum amid a rallying U.S. stock market. Bulls have the near term technical advantage. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed down 21.3 cents at $3.727 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears are still in technical control and gained fresh downside momentum today. The fact that natural gas could not rally amid a general commodity market rally today is a bearish clue.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan
Crude oil closed up $1.82 at $67.23 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three week high today as bulls did gain some fresh upside technical momentum amid a rallying U.S. stock market. Bulls have the near term technical advantage. A two week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Natural gas closed down 21.3 cents at $3.727 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bears are still in technical control and gained fresh downside momentum today. The fact that natural gas could not rally amid a general commodity market rally today is a bearish clue.

woohoo on the NG piece.

[DRKM]

2k hod t 12.70...

Oil seems to have calmed down a bit...

[Dinan]

Where would be HOD, at 65.75 oil? I won't be around my pc, just want to place a sell order.

Hope it gets filled !

[SilverRex]

friday. while yesterday price rose to levels where it offer some very good shorting levels, but today the key is to watch if those short levels we enter will fulfill it self to the book

looking at oil, while over night or asian market lifted market up again, but so far oil is still remains unable to beat over 67.6 which I suggested is the ultimate key in holding oil down. oil is somewhat in two up trend channels and looks overbought with divergence happening which is good to see.

we need oil to break below 66.50 to confirm the divergence so that it will have momentum to test the 65.76 which is now a pretty big support. if we can beat down that as well then it will get confortable because we can than all move our stops, sell half do what ever and watch the 64 leve oil closely. Why 64? look at it again, 200 EMA, 38% fibo, and two up demand trend lines, that is a pretty huge support imo and will no doubt force oil back up even if the world suddenly crash. it almost seems as a safer bet to short oil if oil can break below 64, but wont offer as much risk/reward as shorting oil at 67.50

anyhow if the market was to supress us all and give yet another rise unexpectedly, I'll have my oil completely exit if oil breaks 68 by a penny. why 68? just because we now have the upper trend channel hiiting near 68. so there is another scenario that oil could test the upper line forcing what looks like a false break out. The last thing I want is a false break out, so im setting my own stop just a tick over 68. So set your own stops according to what you can lose or cannot lose. We need some luck, momentum clearly on the bull side for the markets but technically we are setup for a good fall here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072409.jpg

now looking at gold, while my 957 resistance still stands, I even shorted at 957. stilling holding it, will hold it as long as I can. was bearish that gold came below the 1st two trend lines, but gold is unable to pass thru 947. so today key is for gold to crack 947 in order to confirm trend change underway, then we look at some major numbers at 943, 937 to act as a support, it will take a pretty big drop in the stock market to push gold back down to 928 imo so for now expect gold to be within 10-15 dollar ranges up and down. (the usualy 7am smack down US market hopefully can begin gold's collasp)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072409.jpg

nothing really to see on the us dollar index, it tried to break above 79.10 which I suggested would be key to reversing the recent decline, but it got rejected and hence you see hold and oil and euro both continued higher over seas or over night which ever you want to call it. there a bit risky here and like yesterday it too can resume its drop making a newer low. but this chart is starting to look congested or confusing again, so it is hard to determind the trend and we can only look at other sectors like euro to offer clues where the market is headed. Euro broke a very siginifcant demand trend line below 1.4200 but has since got back above it, now it is at 1.4240 imo if euro can shoot back down below that trend line in which it broke yesterday after hours, then it too will confirm some more weakness which we so need to bring the market down.

so far DOW looks premarket will opening down as of 6:33 am I write this. so lets hope momentum can build.

final chart is again DOW, with 9088 the previous resistance months ago, we got a few pts over it and since managed to close below which is a good news. now Im hoping the perfect scenario wil play out and in the next 2-3 weeks I demand DOW to grind lower and lower of course with rallies in between as it touches important support. but it would be a perfect shorting opporunity and bull case for it to get to 8600-8700 level. 8600 is now right at the 50% fibo retracement from the recent top down rally. and 8700 is the 38% fibo as well as the trend line which it broke that further fuel this rally. we need a good pull back here then comes middle of aug and syncronizing with the cyclist turn dates and offer one final push towards 10k dOW for a impressive bear market rally. Not sure if numbers are just too perfect or what but DOW will only make a 50% retracement by hitting about 10.3k.

just to remind everyone who is curious why we must head to thse fibo level. well EW count suggest if this entire drop to 6500 for DOW was simply an impulsive 1st wave down. then we are now in a wave 2 correction which often targets the fibo levels. then when we begin a wave 3, this wave 3 will most likely be longer and new lows will be created. I for one rather now see new lows because it would bring the world down literally, especially living in alberta, oil and gas will crash and that is not what I want for us calgarians, I rather have a job and loose some stocks then to lose it and make money. well unless I make millions otherwise it's just too scary to see it unfold that way. Anyways last day of the week, lets hope we can close below 9000 to make a bit bearish, but if we can some how close below 8875, then that would be freaking fantastick lol) good luck all

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow072409.jpg

[KleanCord]

The kind of EW you are talking about would also imply a further wave 5 down from wave 3. I don't know much about EW but Wave 3 must always be greater than wave 1, and how would that be possible considering how far wave 1 fell? Wouldn't the end game be DOW 1000?

Wouldn't a more likely scenario be the March bottom was put in on Wave 5. Something like the slow decline we saw for a year would be 1, the fast drop in September and October would be Wave 3, and finally the capitulation would be Wave 5 in March. Then perhaps this is the first corrective.

Again I am far from an EW expert but I would have thought that seems more likely for the EW tactician. But please let me know if I have my rules all out of whack.

[Dinan]

Natural gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.711 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.

Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.65

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.05
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.26

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.71
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.37


Crude oil traded higher overnight as it extended Thursday's breakout above the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.10. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 64.19 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Crude oil's pivot point for Friday, our line in the sand is 66.20

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 67.68
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.10
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 64.19

[Dinan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Wow these group buys never workout lol:banghead:


ohhh boy.... it seems like that... but lets hope that HOD works out!

[davidI]

Haha, big time. I've been having a good month, don't need this to ruin it!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KleanCord
The kind of EW you are talking about would also imply a further wave 5 down from wave 3. I don't know much about EW but Wave 3 must always be greater than wave 1, and how would that be possible considering how far wave 1 fell? Wouldn't the end game be DOW 1000?

Wouldn't a more likely scenario be the March bottom was put in on Wave 5. Something like the slow decline we saw for a year would be 1, the fast drop in September and October would be Wave 3, and finally the capitulation would be Wave 5 in March. Then perhaps this is the first corrective.

Again I am far from an EW expert but I would have thought that seems more likely for the EW tactician. But please let me know if I have my rules all out of whack.

yes I question DOW's target to that low by reading other's similar analysis if we are indeed starting only wave 3 however alot of folks has been using log scale, so perhaps from that point it could still extened longer than the first dip based on that.

I for myself favors the peak in DOW is a 5th wave which marked a larger wave 1 and we are begining a huge ABC correction to mark a wave 2 low. If that is the case then the 6500 marks only the A and we are in a bear market rally establishing the B, then C will be lower than A.

Anyways either scenario still calls we will eventually head lower so lets see if we can pin where the top is.

[davidI]

SR & KC, have you guys done your CMT or have you just picked your TA knowledge through reading books etc.

I've started working on Level 1 of my CFA but am also looking at doing the CSC, CMT and CIM while I'm back working overseas and have some idle time. Just wondering if you guys (or anyone else) have suggestions / recommendations / experience in any financial / investment type courses or programs.

[SilverRex]

^ no I have not, just a regular joe with a full time job and side hobby trading the currecy market and stock market. but I've been trading in and out for the last 5-6 years, so just going with experience here :D

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by SilverRex

Anyways either scenario still calls we will eventually head lower so lets see if we can pin where the top is.

That is a good point. No matter what the scenario building up a short position and taking some profits would make sense.

Also did anyone happen to notice the RSI on the daily charts for the DOW. It actually crossed 70 for the first time since this all started. CNBC had an options trader on there and he said that the VIX was showing this rally has more legs to it. The weird part is that we all know the VIX is inversely related to the stock prices as in the higher the VIX the worse the prices (also the more likely you should be buying), and now they are telling us that a huge drop in the VIX to pre crash levels is a good thing. I would happen to think the closer we are to 20 on the VIX the scarier things get.

[davidI]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^ no I have not, just a regular joe with a full time job and side hobby trading the currecy market and stock market. but I've been trading in and out for the last 5-6 years, so just going with experience here :D

Yea, that's basically me too. Just been trading the last 4 years though and really only got into the TA side of things this last year. I may look at getting into the research / finance / BD side of oil & gas and figure having a few acronyms behind my name won't hurt the ol' resume. Just trying to decide what courses to focus on. CFA is great, but it's a huge slog and I'm not sure if I'll be able to handle the time required for Level 2 and 3 as even Level 1 has been a huge pain in my ass (here's hoping I pass in December!)

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by davidI
SR & KC, have you guys done your CMT or have you just picked your TA knowledge through reading books etc.

I've started working on Level 1 of my CFA but am also looking at doing the CSC, CMT and CIM while I'm back working overseas and have some idle time. Just wondering if you guys (or anyone else) have suggestions / recommendations / experience in any financial / investment type courses or programs.

Just a library card and google.

I have thought about doing my CSC and CMT as I have recently been laid off, but I am still trying to decide on what I want to do.

I can also tell you that the practice exam for the Level 1 CMT is a joke. You do need 3 exams each increasing in difficulty with Level 2 being only moderately difficult.

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Just a library card and google.



Any books you would reccomend?

[Dinan]

everyone holding HOD tight:)

[SilverRex]

well not out of the woods yet

but so far euro looks like its trying to close back below the demand trend line that it broke yesterday which is 1st step. if we get more confirmation from other sectors such as oil below 65.76, dow below 9000 and gold below 947 than I can sleep tonight lol

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
well not out of the woods yet

but so far euro looks like its trying to close back below the demand trend line that it broke yesterday which is 1st step. if we get more confirmation from other sectors such as oil below 65.76, dow below 9000 and gold below 947 than I can sleep tonight lol

i seee... so i take you you not planning out getting out today...


i like to sleep at night, so i might get out today ehehehehe ....

[davidI]

Yea, I hate holding 2x ETFs over the weekend. I may cut half my position today at even if I can and just hold a few hundred shares over the weekend.

[SilverRex]

yeah I dont trade as much shares as some of you guys on here, so I'm fine holding it over the weekend

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by davidI
Yea, I hate holding 2x ETFs over the weekend. I may cut half my position today at even if I can and just hold a few hundred shares over the weekend.

I love it. But that's because I short them.

As for books I recommend Technical Analysis by Kirkpatrick. It is actually a text book, but very informative and some of the best writing on the subject. Start there for sure and then you can branch out into Candlesticks, Elliot Wave, Patterns etc. when you feel like you want to get more in depth on the stuff.

[davidI]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I love it. But that's because I short them.

What do you mean you short them?

Wouldn't shorting HOD effectively be the same as buying HOU?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
yeah I dont trade as much shares as some of you guys on here, so I'm fine holding it over the weekend

i see, well i don't think i got too much,500, but like david, don't like to hold 2x ETF's.... unless it's HNU :banghead: lol

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


What do you mean you short them?

Wouldn't shorting HOD effectively be the same as buying HOU?

if i would short one i would short HOU cause it's cheaper then buying HOD :) but not sure why anyone would short HOD :dunno:

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by davidI


What do you mean you short them?

Wouldn't shorting HOD effectively be the same as buying HOU?

Yes, except for the degradation effect. It is kind of dirty but if your brokerage allows you to short the ETFs you significantly improved your odds of making money.

The whole degradation over time of leveraged ETFs has been well documented but shorting them has one problem. 2x ETFs can more than double your money while shorting them can only ever provide you about 90%. The lower they go the less leverage over the price you bought your short for.

Example:

I short HOD at 10 and it goes to 9. I made 10%. However another dollar drop down to 8 is actually an 11% drop, however it is only a 10% price gain for the short. $1 (the difference between 8 and 9) divided by $9 is 11%.

Whereas if I was long HOU and it went from $10 to $11 I gain 10% or a $1 gain. But a further dollar gain from $11 to $12 is only an increase of 9.1% but from the initial investment of $10 it is actually 10%.

Compounding not only is the cause of deterioration in these leveraged ETFs but it also adds a wrinkly if you choose to short them.

Bottom line is in non-trending markets shorting these things is probably a much smarter bet than going long. But remember that after about 30% gain on a short your actual gains start to get severely depressed as in for every 10% loss the stock has you might only be gaining 5%. You are best to cover.

[DRKM]

HOD is bouncing around 12.55....

[civic_rida]

omg:drama:

[davidI]

KC, thanks for that explanation. I hadn't thought about it like that before. I'll have to have a coffee, sit down and wrap my head around the "degradation effect" one of these days!

[civic_rida]

What a boring morning.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by civic_rida
What a boring morning.

No kidding. I thought today would be fun being Friday and what terrible numbers MSFT reported. Perhaps this suggests further upside to come.

>DavidI
Consider it like this for the degradation:
1) Someone manages it so there is a small fee taken out of the fund.
2) If you have $100 and lose 10% you now have $90. Now if the market goes up 10% the next day you should be even. But because of compounding factors and simple math 10% of $90 is only $99. So imagine if over a month the index went up and down 5% over and over.
3) Rollovers in futures contracts seem to have a small erosion as well.

[KleanCord]

A few things that have me bummed out.

1) QUA.to - Seems to keep going
2) AVM.to - New highs
3) GCE.to - NEw highs

All three of these I have owned at least twice and missed their 30% moves in the last couple days.

AVM I sold out just 3 days prior.

Aside from my whining is there anyone else out there that is playing these? If so what others are your favorites.

I like them because they are materials/miners and had a very big discount to book price, at least they once did.

[cosmok]

^^I was in AVM this week, got stopped out at $2 before it made its run yesterday

[davidI]

Originally posted by KleanCord


No kidding. I thought today would be fun being Friday and what terrible numbers MSFT reported. Perhaps this suggests further upside to come.

>DavidI
Consider it like this for the degradation:
1) Someone manages it so there is a small fee taken out of the fund.
2) If you have $100 and lose 10% you now have $90. Now if the market goes up 10% the next day you should be even. But because of compounding factors and simple math 10% of $90 is only $99. So imagine if over a month the index went up and down 5% over and over.
3) Rollovers in futures contracts seem to have a small erosion as well.

Yea, I definitely see the logic there. I guess I always looked at these leveraged ETFs as intraday or 2-3 day swing trades and hadn't though of the longer term impacts of the compounding / fees etc.

[yellowsnow]

sold avm at 2.30 yesterday...

i'm buying back in at 2.20 .... so many rumors that this thing will go above $3.00 once their financing gets approved for the new mine. lots of resistance at 2.20 right now

[guessboi]

HNU is back up today.
I have better luck in my penny stocks than my ETFs. :nut:
Penny stocks have much better gains too over time. :D

[civic_rida]

lvs wow.

[max_boost]

Looks like 11,000 will have to wait until next week!

HNU you POS! :whipped: Not even at $5 yet lol

[davidI]

Hmm, HODs not doing so hot. No real market moving indicators until next Wednesday when the Durable Goods data comes out. Guess I'll have to decide whether to take a loss or how much I want to gamble over the weekend!

[KRZY403]

this is really depressing. had a whole week of losses

[Dinan]

yeah this sucks!!!! HOD that is... and LVS is on the move like crazyyy!!!



so who is getting out of HOD


SR, you still getting out at 68 ....

[KRZY403]

if i get out of hod now im gonna take a big loss especially since im trading on margin :thumbsdow

[DRKM]

Originally posted by davidI
Hmm, HODs not doing so hot. No real market moving indicators until next Wednesday when the Durable Goods data comes out. Guess I'll have to decide whether to take a loss or how much I want to gamble over the weekend!

In the same boat as you. I may take a loss on half of my postion just to lower my exposure. Was going to sell this morning and rebuy later. Oh well...

[max_boost]

Stop fighting the force. Oil is going to shoot higher. Just watch.

[SilverRex]

^

well breaking the key 66.38 was really the trigger. even though I expect the market to pull back eventually than make a final push towards 9400+ if you recall a few weeks ago.

just didnt realize oil still has legs. I just realize 68.5 oil is also an important resistance after having the utmost difficult time trying to break below which it didnt a month ago, and when it finally did, it dropped 10 bucks.

also oil started to drop at the end of the month and thru the 1st week of the next month.

and we are nearing an end of this month as well.

for myself I am going to see how oil reacts to 68.5.

but my bias may now be bullish for oil in the medium term and still expecting the market to pull back, this pull back may not be strong though, thanks to the media coming out saying the recession is over just what we need :facepalm:

now if the break above 66.38 oil invalidates the EW count that 74 oil is peaked, then this correction from 74 to 58 is merely a correction then I will expect once oil find its top to retrace about 40 % from its recent rise. either use the drop as exit target then I may even consider going long. or hedge with HOU until the market rolls over.
I'll have better idea what its trying to do after the market closes.

well its never easy to pick the corrections because trend is more powerful, and I do agree the trend has been bullish for DOW ever since it crossed 8400. the pull back I was expecting did not happen but even then because the oil dropped so much a few weeks ago, it led me to believe during DOW's pull back it will further weaken oil, but I was mistaken the possibility that the corrolation between oil and DOW is much stronger than I expected. No matter, trend is your friend and its true. DOW do have a higher target to go, I'll look for pull back as exit if your heavy in oil, and look for support levels to go long.

long until DOW makes its final top some where between 9400-10.3k

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
Stop fighting the force. Oil is going to shoot higher. Just watch.

Buy some HOU so oil goes down again! :poosie:

[cosmok]

$68 oil :rofl: lets see where this goes

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by yellowsnow
sold avm at 2.30 yesterday...

i'm buying back in at 2.20 .... so many rumors that this thing will go above $3.00 once their financing gets approved for the new mine. lots of resistance at 2.20 right now

Just a word of caution (perhaps from a bad source since I sold out far too early), but I have been in this stock for months now.

Financing rumors are always around. My hunch is that they are now closer to something but there is a very real possibility they might just have to slowly earn their way instead of borrow.

Also this stock has done this exact same pattern over and over. I wonder if this time is different but that makes me very reluctant to buy at these levels. I have seen the classic spike in volume and the intraday high then the next day a little of back and forth then the third day it goes back up a bit then it slowly goes down over a month while people take profit and probably sell since they don't get any financing news. Rinse and Repeat.

Those are cautions, but understand that I think eventually this thing has to be huge. $0.50 copper and a stable enough balance sheet should be more than enough reason to buy even if this is a short term high.

[SilverRex]

^
yup I agree, I was told from another source how GS is pumping the market up so they can come up with the money for the bonds auction coming up.

also with higher DOW today, gold unable to break new high so did the euro and the dollar didnt even make new lows, kind has me believe oil and dow is purely driven by emotional investor

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
$68 oil :rofl: lets see where this goes

taking us HOD holders to the cleaners....:nut:



I'm with you SR, i'm holding.... i got in at 12.63 so i'm not down that much...

[max_boost]

Originally posted by civic_rida
see the difference this time is that Maxboost is not in on this.



Originally posted by sputnik


He knows better.





Originally posted by davidI


Buy some HOU so oil goes down again! :poosie:

LOL

:angel:

[davidI]

The positive correlation between the price of crude and equity markets continues apace with the Dow finally breaching and holding above the 9000 level for the first time since January. This mutual admiration seems determined to ignore the weak oil market fundamentals which has seen gasoline and distillate stocks in the US increasing for a straight sixth week and with unemployment in the US still rising it is difficult to see how quickly this surplus is likely to be consumed. From a technical perspective yesterday's candle on the daily oil prices chart has provided us with several interesting points to consider, with the price of oil closing higher on the day and ending the oil trading session as a wide spread up bar, with small shadows to both top and bottom. First, it is important to note that the whilst oil prices broke above the 40 day moving average, they failed to hold at this level, with the closing price ending the trading session below once again. Whilst this is a negative signal, it is counterbalanced to some extent by the crossing of the 9 day moving average above the 14 day. Secondly, the high of the day failed to penetrate the strong resistance level which we are now approaching rapidly as the price of oil recovers lost ground. This level will prove pivotal in any move higher, and we MUST see a break and hold above this level for any longer term upwards move to be sustained. It is interesting to note from this morning's early oil trading that the open has been gapped up, suggesting that the bullish momentum remains firmly in play, and in addition the open is now firmly above the 40 day moving average which seems to be providing the support required, so the signs are encouraging for a move higher today. Longer term we need to see a breach of the $67 to $73 price region for a continued move higher towards our target of $75 per barrel.

The short and medium term is sideways, the long term bullish.

WTI:

Support: $65.48 (low of 03/07/09) Resistance: $70.21 (high of 22/06/09)

Support: $64.96 (low of 03/06/09) Resistance: $69.04 ( high of 02/06/09)

Support: $64.38 (low of 23/07/09) Resistance: $68.68 ( high of 01/06/09 )

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $68.40 (low of 30/06/09) Resistance: $70.81 (high of 26/06/09)

Support: $68.08 (low of 0 1/07/09) Resistance: $70.51 (high of 25/06/09)

Support: $67.58 (low of 24/06/09) Resistance: $70.06 (high of 09/06/09)

[SilverRex]

well 68.6 is about 12.13 HOD. I dont think it will get pass there on first attamp with out a few dollars drop from it.

[Dinan]

there we moving down a bit ...... down is under 8885, lets see some MORE selling....


NG of all things is moving up!!!

[997TT]

Oil up, NG down ... 0-2
portfolio has seen better days

[SilverRex]

well not sure if this will happen or not but I spotted alittle something on the euro

notice how when euro was a bit bearish two weeks ago or late june, notice the STOCH over bought/sold indicator is making lower cross over signals (marked by red line) until eventually one of the crossover broke above it (marked by black circle) what the black circle signal is a trend change may be occuring. and as the STOCH becomes over sold it was a buying opportunity every time it become oversold (marked by purple line) and see it too begin to rise higher and higher and now we have a an oversold breaking below the last purple line stoch cross over and couple the red overbought crossing over again making lower and lower,

what this tells me is, we could possible be in a trend changing scenario and if it plays out then stoch should cross over and start heading down bringing euro down with it until the next trend change happens.

wont this be nice if it does happen. now not all chart does this but I realize from time to time it does and when it does it could be a good trend change indicator

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/eurotoday-1.jpg

[DRKM]

WAT HNU 5 dollars?

AM I the only one still holding HNU?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by DRKM
WAT HNU 5 dollars?

AM I the only one still holding HNU?

i am, but my average is high 5's... holding off to average down.. i had in the low 4's but sold them all... i knew i should have bought yesterday to have a quick play off the 3.50 support, next time it will break through and head on down, IMO...

[tryingtobebest1]

So... whos holding what over the week end?

[davidI]

I'm going to toss the dice and hold HOD over the weekend. Don't really have any other short-term investments right now.

Just UTS & TA for the long-term. Managed to flip TLM & BCF for tidy profits this week although I'm hoping to get in on them again once they drop a little lower.

[Dinan]

well i'm holding HOD at 12.63, hope for a better day on monday...

and HNU i'm in till i see GREEN, till then i'll buy when it hits 4$

[Dinan]

wow, so this end of the day rally will fuck us up.....:banghead:


if it holds, HOPE it doesn't!

[sputnik]

GO RED!!!

http://ugandaninsomniac.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/roulette.jpg

[davidI]

Originally posted by sputnik
GO RED!!!

http://ugandaninsomniac.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/roulette.jpg

:rofl: I just need a cocktail at my desk and it would feel very Vegas like!

[DRKM]

Originally posted by sputnik
GO RED!!!

http://ugandaninsomniac.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/roulette.jpg

^^

Holding my hod over the week end as well... At the moment I am holding HNU as well...

I am going to be running some data later today. I will post up what I got when I am done. Hopefully it will instill some confindence.

What sucks is that there are really no quick flips to make at the moment in commodities besides NG. Its kinda funney how you can watch profits dwindle away and have a nice calm feeling about it.

I was talking to a BP trader the other day. He was telling me about a stratagy to short both long and short etfs (volitle ones) and that at the end of the day you generally come out on top. Anyone try this?
I am trying it with FAS, FAZ on the simulated market and I can see it working over a longer time period.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by DRKM
What sucks is that there are really no quick flips to make at the moment in commodities besides NG. Its kinda funney how you can watch profits dwindle away and have a nice calm feeling about it.

Young padwan. The force in you is still weak.

What you have yet to learn is that quick flips can also be quick FALLS. Just talk to some of the other ETF traders here.

As for profits "dwindling" away. You have to consider the strategy behind some portfolio positions. For long term holds, seeing a drop for a month or two (or ten) is not a bad thing if the fundamentals are strong.

With something like HOD/HOU you cant really have a long position because if you do you may be spinning your wheels from one monthly contract to another.


Originally posted by DRKM
I was talking to a BP trader the other day. He was telling me about a stratagy to short both long and short etfs (volitle ones) and that at the end of the day you generally come out on top. Anyone try this?
I am trying it with FAS, FAZ on the simulated market and I can see it working over a longer time period.

Really? I will believe it when I see it.

So what is his strategy? If it is so fool proof why isn't EVERYONE applying it and buying private jets and houses in Hawaii?

Don't kid yourself. If there is one thing we learned in October is that there is no "sure thing".

[davidI]

Originally posted by DRKM

I was talking to a BP trader the other day. He was telling me about a stratagy to short both long and short etfs (volitle ones) and that at the end of the day you generally come out on top. Anyone try this?
I am trying it with FAS, FAZ on the simulated market and I can see it working over a longer time period.

I did some reading today after reading KC's post about shorting ETFs and it does make sense, if you choose the correct ETFs and can pull it off. Here's some good reading material...

http://www.darwinsfinance.com/riskiest-etfs-earth-3x-returns/

http://thesnowjob.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/a-risk-free-trade-shorting-leveraged-etfs/

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/f33/shorting-leveraged-etfs-low-risk-high-gain-potential-27836/

http://seekingalpha.com/article/31195-leveraged-etfs-a-value-destruction-trap

[DRKM]

Originally posted by sputnik


Young padwan. The force in you is still weak.

What you have yet to learn is that quick flips can also be quick FALLS. Just talk to some of the other ETF traders here.

As for profits "dwindling" away. You have to consider the strategy behind some portfolio positions. For long term holds, seeing a drop for a month or two (or ten) is not a bad thing if the fundamentals are strong.

With something like HOD/HOU you cant really have a long position because if you do you may be spinning your wheels from one monthly contract to another.



Really? I will believe it when I see it.

So what is his strategy? If it is so fool proof why isn't EVERYONE applying it and buying private jets and houses in Hawaii?

Don't kid yourself. If there is one thing we learned in October is that there is no "sure thing".

I see what you are saying about thelong term postion. But by quick flips I ment 5cent runs. 100 dollar profits. Small shit. Yes they can turn into quick falls but your exposure is lowered quite a bit.

As for the ETF thing, the trader I was speaking to was saying that the profit margin was reasonably small. When I asked about the intial capital he was saying his models were about $150K. So there may be two reasons that everyone is not jumping on board the shorting ETFs...

When I finish loading in my data OI will post up some shit...

[Inzane]

Originally posted by DRKM
But by quick flips I ment 5cent runs. 100 dollar profits. Small shit.

How is that even worth the effort? :dunno:
I would think most of us make enough in our normal day jobs that it would hardly seem worth the time and effort required to micro-manage day in and day out those piddly little "quick flips" like that. (Don't forget to factor in transaction fees and capital gains tax).

I don't think I've ever sold a stock for less than ~ $400 profit. (not including the few that I've sold at a loss, but capital losses is another separate topic to be handled differently).

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Inzane


How is that even worth the effort? :dunno:
I would think most of us make enough in our normal day jobs that it would hardly seem worth the time and effort required to micro-manage day in and day out those piddly little "quick flips" like that. (Don't forget to factor in transaction fees and capital gains tax).

I don't think I've ever sold a stock for less than ~ $400 profit. (not including the few that I've sold at a loss, but capital losses is another separate topic to be handled differently).

It dependson how many share you buy. Normally I buy from2000 to 3000 shares at a time.( I used to buy 5000 back when hou was 4-5 dollars.
Do this several times a day and you make more than your day job. It's as easy as 1,2,3 but it still works. As for fees they are obviously more ($10 per trade) it adds up bursa longas you cover for commission you are fine.
Also remeberthat your exposure is much lower.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Rat Fink]

.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


Also hope that CRA doesn't recognize you as a trader and make you consider your income as "business income" and not capital gains. Hard to say its just a side thing you do when there's proof you spend all day trading and flipping. Just another thing to consider.....
I hear you. I am still trying to figure out if I want to claim it as business income or not. I think I will since I aready have a business established I could just write more shit off... I am going to had to talk to my accountant ( wife) about this...

Thanks for the optimism ratfink!

[Rat Fink]

.

[DRKM]

Why dint you make yourself a contractor to your trucking company? I am a heavy duty tech and I know a few drivers that sub contract while driving someone elses trucks... Just food for thought.
Then you could write off alot
more shit.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by DRKM

I hear you. I am still trying to figure out if I want to claim it as business income or not. I think I will since I aready have a business established I could just write more shit off... I am going to had to talk to my accountant ( wife) about this...

Thanks for the optimism ratfink!

can you let me know what your accountant (wife) says? :D

this is my only source of income, and it's my first year, not sure how to go about when income tax season comes.... Thanks

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Dinan


can you let me know what your accountant (wife) says? :D

this is my only source of income, and it's my first year, not sure how to go about when income tax season comes.... Thanks

Yeah I will ask her for sure. This is our first year as well. At the moment it is our only source of income as well. We should have a beyond traders meet and bs a little.

[Z_Fan]

Trading is my single greatest source of losing income!

[997TT]

Nat gas down 0.08 to begin Sunday's trading.
Here's hoping the drop doesn't rebound right before NA markets open.

Oil at $68.50.

lot can happen btw now and open.

[Dinan]

yeah when it hits our market it likes to change!

You still holding HND and HOD? U got some HNU or sold off?

Oil needs to calm down!

So SR, what did you decide to do?

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Dinan
yeah when it hits our market it likes to change!

You still holding HND and HOD? U got some HNU or sold off?

Oil needs to calm down!

So SR, what did you decide to do?

There is not too much that we can do at this point in time...

997- When did you buy into HND?

It is slightly good news that oil opened lower for the first time in like 3 weeks. The USD was trying to rally but that did not last long. It is refreshing that there was some intial doubt in oil and the EURO upon market opening.
Hopefully that peak at 68.68 is the bounce that we are looking for...

I have been trying to find a pattern between what the overseas market has been doing and the reaction it gets from the NA market but I have not been able to find a clear one...

[997TT]

Originally posted by DRKM


There is not too much that we can do at this point in time...

997- When did you buy into HND?

It is slightly good news that oil opened lower for the first time in like 3 weeks. The USD was trying to rally but that did not last long. It is refreshing that there was some intial doubt in oil and the EURO upon market opening.
Hopefully that peak at 68.68 is the bounce that we are looking for...

I have been trying to find a pattern between what the overseas market has been doing and the reaction it gets from the NA market but I have not been able to find a clear one...

Well i bought at $9.97 and sold that ... only to rebuy higher at $11.50.

Then it tanked the next day and here we are.

[Red@8]

997TT I am interested to see how this plays out. Me and you are on opposite sides of NG this time.