Official Short-term Investments Thread

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Red@8
997TT I am interested to see how this plays out. Me and you are on opposite sides of NG this time.

I promised myself I will not sell this bitch until $9. I plan on stickinig to that.

[max_boost]

11,000 TSX this week.

:thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

ok so its monday. Last week's entire rally while expected far exceeded my own expectation as well as many others. but we will break it down one at a time.

For oil, while I expected 66-67 to hold, it didnt, price broken upwards and so with key resistance taken out, what does that mean? it means we will have higher oil into the 75-81 dollar range. But will it be now.. hmmm I still believe the market is due for a pull back.

oil is in the 68+ as I write this and 68-69 does offer some resistance from the previous struggle before it dropped massively not so long ago. I expect the market sometime this week if not today will begin a steady retracement (profit taking) that will set up nicely for a B wave in an ABC correction that once bottomed will make one final hurrah higher in all sectors pretty much before this bear market rally exhust itself.

So we must turn our medium out look bullish for oil now that critical resistances are breached, however that doesnt mean oil will just keep going up to the sky, looking at the chart it has gone quite over bought lately and I expect it to come down to at least test the 66 areaif not the 65.76 resistance which now turned into support. even though my bias is now bullish, I think short term upside is limited, so view pull back as an exit strategy and we may begin to go long once the market does pull back and bottoms out. unless oil takes out 65 quickly, oil is far from being bearish at the moment.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072709.jpg

now for gold, really not too all exciting. while the market continues to rally, gold couldnt make new lows but yet has difficulties making new highs as well. it did however made it to 959 which seems it wants to break out, but again with a minor pull back in the DOW coming up, I dont think gold should be able to get pass this area yet. so unless price can close above 957 on the 1 hour chart as of now, expect gold to have peaked and will follow the market down more quickly than it does up. meaning, gold is merely waiting for the equities to drop, and when it does gold will accelerate it's decline. Now in the event gold does suddenly punch upward, the next level of resistance for gold is 971, but I dont think we will see that, not unless DOW makes it to 9400. when DOW bottoms out short term and makes the final rise, it will depend where gold will be, if gold is still in the 940+ range, then yes perhaps 971 could be possible.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072709.jpg

ok going to post the DOW instead of the dollar chart, I think DOW is a bit more clearer, again DOw exceed my expectation on the recent upside but still very much within what we expected from the grand scheme of things. remember when DOW bottomed out at 8100, I said if it takes out 8400 and the critical 8600, then DOW in the more longer time frame will target 9400+, so is it any surprise we are making strides in the RIGHT direction? nop

there fore trend is always your friend, its just that once you figure out the trend, trying to pick pull backs are alot more difficult until it happens. But at least we all know what to do when it does pull back and that is to go long.

from this chart, I am convinced what we have is a wave I structure low when DOW hit about 6500, the entire leg up is still a correction within larger bear market decline. you can make a 5 wave count for this upleg making our latest run the 5th wave or a ABC in itself. once completed will mark a wave II and as we know it the wave III decline will exceed our 6500 low.

At one pt I was beginning to think what if it just keeps going up without stopping, well it almost convince me that way, but confirming from a cyclist that the next 2 weeks willl be a weak SM and the run will not begin until between middle of aug. timing that with the EW structure it makes alot more sense to me that a pull back will happen. Then the market should top out in sep.

For my recommendation is, for those of you who are very long in your RRSP what not, have alot riding the line or even very well in the profit since day 1 holding the bag. consider when DOW tops out in sep or 9400+ to start taking your profit and wait on the side line for more confirmation, because technically if things play out, we will see a new low in DOW in the next few months. IF you want to believe this entire drop to 6500 in DOW should only be an ABC correction and that because you believe inflation is around the corner then consider even an ABC correction still has a C to be made. and typically C is lower than A, so either way your still getting a top out in the DOW in its recent rally.

just prepare for this scenario and be ahead of the pack if it does play out. sell half, or 1/3 if your skeptical and buy back every 20% dip if without my comments you would have hold on all you had to the last breath.

good luck

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow072909.jpg

[KleanCord]

The double etf shorting is nothing new. But I have realized two problems with it as I have tried in the past.

1) In a strong trending market you will get your ass handed to you. The reason why is because these are leveraged at 2x or 3x. If your short goes down 3x the index what is the max you make? <100%. If your long goes 2x or 3x the index what is the potential to make? The answer is technically infinite as there is no upper limit on these things. This is also true because if your short is making about 50% that could be the equivalent of your long making 120% (just numbers) based on the idea of compounding your initial investment.

2) Can you even short both ETFs with your broker? I have tried and often get rejected. They will usually find me one side but not the other.

Just realize it is a high probability trade but not the best idea on limited capital.

I stick to shorting one side and setting a modest stop loss. If you believe Oil is going down short HOU, but not HOD.

[KleanCord]

Hey SR,

Could an EW interpretation put the A wave in November and B wave the Christmas rally and C in March. Meaning we would be well under way of the 1 through 5 waves on this latest rally?

[davidI]

Looks like I got my a$$ handed to me on HOD. Hoping for a pull-back and exit soon!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
Looks like I got my a$$ handed to me on HOD. Hoping for a pull-back and exit soon!

yeah i need 67 oil... to get out....:banghead:

[Dinan]

come on, another 30 cents

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KleanCord
Hey SR,

Could an EW interpretation put the A wave in November and B wave the Christmas rally and C in March. Meaning we would be well under way of the 1 through 5 waves on this latest rally?

^

there are many EW interpretations

but the one that I believe is this one, where dating back as far as the 1920s, we have a grand super cycle top marking DOW a 5th wave completion back in 2000, the last few years is merely an ABC correction, A lasted 2 years, follow by a 6 years B, so C will most likely be equal if not longer lasting and we only really had one year about into this decline.

while smaller time frame it may look like we are done and should be bullish (which is why market is heading higher and higher)

but over all the has only begin. I believe the drop from 14k dow to 6500 can trace out a 5 wave structure thus marking 6500 as a completion of one larger wave structure. either way ABC within the B down leg or 5 wave within it, your still going to get a top out and a lower price coming in. Now the chart points to 2000 DOW as a probable target because generally retracement can seek the prior wave range between the .iii and .iv during the 5th wave up move since the 80s.

now you ask but how can we drop further as wave C is the longest, well it is, if you use log scale. then we could have a much steeper decline in the next many months once this correction is over.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/DOWcycle.jpg

[Dinan]

anyone got out on that small pull back ???



SR, are you still holding HOD? did you get into HOU yet?

[Vanish3d]

I think I figured out these group buys, always jump on the opposite side of everyone and you'll be alright haha

waitin for a pullback as well on oil

[SilverRex]

^

nah I'm planning my exit on about 66 oil as I feel we are closer to a pull back in the market.

[davidI]

I was thinking about it and then it plummeted!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
I was thinking about it and then it plummeted!

hahahah, yeah i know, i set a break even at 12.67, needed like 20 more cents... but i think i'll change it and wait for 66-67, got faith in SR!!! :)


here is a video on the S&P500
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/sp500723/?campaignid=3


you guys remember like a month or soo ago, when i posted some video's on the US dollar and GOLD, this is the same guy, he was right about the US dollar that it would head lower and it was bearish...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

nah I'm planning my exit on about 66 oil as I feel we are closer to a pull back in the market.

are you getting into HOU there too?

[997TT]

Looks like yo might get break even today Dinan...I on the other hand need another 0.90 :thumbsdow

Least NG is almost back to my breakeven. I'm holding steady that we are going to test low's 3's .... that's probably a signal for all ya to jump on HNU. Well those that don't own it already.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
Looks like yo might get break even today Dinan...I on the other hand need another 0.90 :thumbsdow

Least NG is almost back to my breakeven. I'm holding steady that we are going to test low's 3's .... that's probably a signal for all ya to jump on HNU. Well those that don't own it already.

yeah i'm getting close, but not sure if i should sell at break even or wait for some profit...

yeah im planning on buying some HNU at 3.20 NG...


i was soo close of picking some HND up, but got HOD instead... oh well....

[Dinan]

Housing data came in really strong! but it didn't give the market a boost,

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Dinan
Housing data came in really strong! but it didn't give the market a boost,

The market was already anticipating strong housing data.

[Super_Geo]

What are your guys' thoughts on NG right now? Heading down to $3.20?

I got $10k I want to through around and am thinking about playing HNU for a few quick flips. I am a noob at ETFs though... can someone explain to me how HNU traces with NG pricing?

Thanks!

[997TT]

fricking NG....almost back to even.

I should've sold at 11.49 my break even.

damn, being short in this market is suicide.

[cdnsir]

^^ I hear ya, but at least oil keeps flirting to fall through $68 today. I was on da HOD train ever since $65 oil... :barf:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
fricking NG....almost back to even.

I should've sold at 11.49 my break even.

damn, being short in this market is suicide.

i know.... but i think you'll be alright, if you hold on, i would wait till 3.25 NG... and cover.....


looks like DOW wants to close GREEN!

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
What are your guys' thoughts on NG right now? Heading down to $3.20?

I got $10k I want to through around and am thinking about playing HNU for a few quick flips. I am a noob at ETFs though... can someone explain to me how HNU traces with NG pricing?

Thanks!

Tracks the spot price on NYMEX. So if the spot goes up 10% and you have HNU, you make 20% and vice versa.

Just so you know, just a kind reminder to the n00bs who want a piece of it, you can't hold it long term because the 2X (leveraged) aspect of the ETF's is a value trap that will erode your gains in the long run, and it's essentially gambling.

Do you know about contango? You have to take into account what month HNU is tracking and the difference between front and near month contracts will play a role in its pricing.

YES. It's fucking complicated.

So, red or black. Your choice.

[Dinan]

another day, opens RED and closes GREEN..... i have a feeling will have a nnice RED day really soon!

[The_Rural_Juror]

Originally posted by max_boost


Tracks the spot price on NYMEX. So if the spot goes up 10% and you have HNU, you make 20% and vice versa.



I always thought that it tracks the futures price.:dunno:

[anothers10]

Anyone that likes to gamble check out CBIS. I was in at 0.26 and sold at 0.46. Then today it goes fucking crazy, got in at 0.66 and out at 0.96 and it kept going up.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by The_Rural_Juror


I always thought that it tracks the futures price.:dunno:

Yeah we are referring to the same thing right? lol

The thing that shows up on channel #70 BNN under NG right? lol

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost


Yeah we are referring to the same thing right? lol

The thing that shows up on channel #70 BNN under NG right? lol

here in toronto it's on channel 66 :D lol

[The_Rural_Juror]

Originally posted by max_boost


Yeah we are referring to the same thing right? lol

The thing that shows up on channel #70 BNN under NG right? lol

Forgive my noobness, but those ETFs can't track spot.

Spot = immediate delivery. HNU/HND tracks a future delivery, thus the roll-over period to avoid physical exchange. AFAIK, the gas Betapros are tracking September contracts at the moment.

Someone who knows it all *cough*sputnik*cough* correct me if I'm wrong please. :D

[DRKM]

http://reports.theglobeandmail.com/jcap/en/68267/html/jovianf/

Here is the Horizons Beta description of the EFT HNU AND HND.

] Spot prices and future price expectations

Depending on the item being traded, spot prices can indicate market expectations of future price movements in different ways. For a security or non-perishable commodity (e.g., gold), the spot price reflects market expectations of future price movements. In theory, the difference in spot and forward prices should be equal to the finance charges, plus any earnings due to the holder of the security, according to the cost of carry model. For example, on a share the difference in price between the spot and forward is usually accounted for almost entirely by any dividends payable in the period minus the interest payable on the purchase price. Any other price would yield an arbitrage opportunity and riskless profit (see rational pricing for the arbitrage mechanics).


From Wiki^^^^


So yes the movement of the spot price does in fact change the price of the ETF that day.

[The_Rural_Juror]

I read this from the above link. Next delivery month in the case of NG /= spot.


seek daily investment results equal to 200% the daily performance, or inverse daily performance, of the NYMEX® Natural Gas futures contract for the next delivery month

Spot and futures prices are independent of each other. They're not always positively correlated; creating a contango or backwardation curve.

If futures are dependent on spot, then the spread will always be the same. Which isn't always the case.

From here (http://www.hbpetfs.com/index2.asp), the betapro is tracking September delivery (NGU9). Spot = NGQ9 contract if I'm not mistaken. Therefore the only time it tracks spots are the few days before rollover, and partially for the three roll over days.

That's my understanding, but I'm sure that I'll get a sputnik smackdown if I'm wrong. ;)

[Inzane]

Man my v.gap just popped today! :thumbsup:

Now I just have to decide how long to hold. (in at .19)

[DRKM]

What do you guys think about this:

Link (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE56R0KE20090728)

[SilverRex]

ok today's expecatation is the exact same as yesterday, however it took a full day before prices starting to favor us.

pre-market is opening lower, euro is dropping, gold is droping and oil is dropping too hopefully we've seen the top for now

as oil breaks lower than yesterday I expect further weakness ahead and I expect if it can over come 67.6, next test of support is 65.5-66

which will be my exit area and I would be thinking going long here as the area of 65-66 will be a pretty big support on first attampt.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072809.jpg

and for gold, the magic number 957 continues to be the place to short, an so far this early morning we have gold dropping lower than yesterday, the final nail in the coffin? break below 947, I've shorted around 956 and will place my first target at 937

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072809.jpg

not much for DOW other than if we do run into a small correction. Looking for DOW to trace out the 8600-8700 level before resuming another rally towards 9400. How much and how fast we get there is another story, after all, a cyclist is calling SM bottom at mid august then empark on another rally towards mid sept. if that is so, then 2 week long SM weakness could translate to many different scenarios. I'm not concern how it gets to 8700, but when it does might start thinking a way to plant your self long for one more good run this year

[davidI]

Are there any 1x ETFs for oil on the TSX?

I know Gas.TO for NG Bulls - what about a NG Bear?

These 2x ETFs are starting to drive me a little mental. I'd rather put 2x the cash into a trade and try to double up that way than deal with the crazy volatility of these leveraged funds.

[Dinan]

so it's under 67.6, lets hope it holds it down... come on, another one dollar down and i'm happy.... :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
Are there any 1x ETFs for oil on the TSX?

I know Gas.TO for NG Bulls - what about a NG Bear?

These 2x ETFs are starting to drive me a little mental. I'd rather put 2x the cash into a trade and try to double up that way than deal with the crazy volatility of these leveraged funds.

HUC is for crude....
HUN for NG...

[Dinan]

so by the end of september we should sell the market head SOUTH? maybe new lows?? :dunno:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/insiders-have-quickened-the-pace-of-their-selling-2009-07-28

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by davidI
Are there any 1x ETFs for oil on the TSX?

I know Gas.TO for NG Bulls - what about a NG Bear?

Would there be any significant downside to going long on gas.to?

I don't know if I have the nerves to play HNU for too long, but gas in the long run has to go up so gas.to should be a pretty safe bet, right?

[KRZY403]

yes! finallly break even on hod

[997TT]

^ finally a break on HND too.

Tank MF Tank

[Dinan]

yess i'm GREEN :)

need another 60 cents down oil and i'm out...

[davidI]

Originally posted by Super_Geo


Would there be any significant downside to going long on gas.to?

I don't know if I have the nerves to play HNU for too long, but gas in the long run has to go up so gas.to should be a pretty safe bet, right?

I've been buying gas.to on technical bottoms and selling on technical highs as best I can for the last while. The futures contracts for NG look solid so most expect the price to increase...but there are no guarantees in life!

Sold half my HOD position...holding 300 shares to hopefully pull a small profit out of this gonger!

[davidI]

Can anyone provide more info on HUC? Seems weird...what's with it tracking Winter contracts!?

[Dinan]

i'm out... wish you guys luck!!!

[Super_Geo]

Holy shit HNU continues to fall... I'm tempted to pick up 1000 shares @ $4.50.

SR, where is support for NG?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Holy shit HNU continues to fall... I'm tempted to pick up 1000 shares @ $4.50.

SR, where is support for NG?



i would say 3.25 or soo

[997TT]

^ That would be sweeeeetttt.

Still holding my shares of HND...tempted to cash out but i've lived this story before where the minute i sell it continues to rise for days on end.

I'm looking for another 5-7% if i can. But what worries me is a rebound day for HNU, only to further consolidate downwards.

Always looking to sell and rebuy lower but unfortunatly, i sell and rebuy higher. :banghead:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
^ That would be sweeeeetttt.

Still holding my shares of HND...tempted to cash out but i've lived this story before where the minute i sell it continues to rise for days on end.

I'm looking for another 5-7% if i can. But what worries me is a rebound day for HNU, only to further consolidate downwards.

Always looking to sell and rebuy lower but unfortunatly, i sell and rebuy higher. :banghead:

true true... just set a stop now, what ever happens happens..... it bounced last time it hit 3.5, like last time the first time held, and the second time broke through, and on the way up it did the same on the second time it broke above...


try and sell half, if it goes down buy back if not sell the rest higher...


HGD was a good buy few days ago... i keep on forgetting about it.....

[997TT]

NG getting its a$$ handed to itself on a silver platter...

$12.15 HND ... c'mon just a bit more.
hate to be cheering against commodities as its not good for Cgy but hey might as well make some money if they are going to go down

Need another 0.45 on HOD to break even

[SilverRex]

phuck about time the market move to my favor :)

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
NG getting its a$$ handed to itself on a silver platter...

$12.15 HND ... c'mon just a bit more.
hate to be cheering against commodities as its not good for Cgy but hey might as well make some money if they are going to go down

Need another 0.45 on HOD to break even

i hope you get it man, i got out HOD, things seem to want to go up, i almost sold at a loss so i'm happy i sold with a small gain :)

did you pick any HGD ?

[Dinan]

seems the euro is heading on up...

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/eurousd727/?campaignid=3


there is a pivot point at 3.45, lets see if this holds up... hope not! then we get down to 3.25 :)

[Red@8]

I would love to see some $13+ HOD.

997TT looks like you made the right move with HND.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
phuck about time the market move to my favor :)

XIU :cry:

[civic_rida]

Wow im glad i sold xiu.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost


XIU + HNU :cry:

^^ there.....:drama:

[civic_rida]

Are we gonna see the tsx at 10 000 before we see 11 000?

[davidI]

Well, been doing some shopping today...we'll see what happens tomorrow!! Hopefully we get a bit of a pop!!

GAS @ $6
HXU @ $15.16
TLM @ $16.77
Looking to buy some BCF at $0.88 too.

[SilverRex]

well the US dollar index broken a very important down trend channel, so if technically things continue to play out the way it should, we should be in a retracement mode for about a week or two, DOW has finally coming out of overbought and should continue to show weakness until it finds a key support level.

im guessing 8600-8700

[RX_EVOLV]

w00t out of HGD @ $7.33.

What to buy next. hmm..

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
well the US dollar index broken a very important down trend channel, so if technically things continue to play out the way it should, we should be in a retracement mode for about a week or two, DOW has finally coming out of overbought and should continue to show weakness until it finds a key support level.

im guessing 8600-8700

maybe i should buy back some HOD.....:dunno:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
w00t out of HGD @ $7.33.

What to buy next. hmm..

i'm thinking of a small position of HNU ... what you think?

i got out of |HOD don't know what to get now...

[RX_EVOLV]

Originally posted by Dinan


i'm thinking of a small position of HNU ... what you think?

i got out of |HOD don't know what to get now...

I don't know anything about NG so I probably wont touching NG. plus I hate bottom fishing anyway.

I cant decide if it is a good time to buy HOU or HOD. I can see it go both way! .. more HOD than anything though.. hmm

[Dinan]

wow look at MS:eek:

[RX_EVOLV]

yeh failed Phase III. that sucks. I know a few ppl who invested in BioMS


I actually want to get into HOU, the uptrend still intact it seems, but I"m going to wait and see how it opens tomorrow morning to decide.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by RX_EVOLV
yeh failed Phase III. that sucks. I know a few ppl who invested in BioMS


I actually want to get into HOU, the uptrend still intact it seems, but I&quot;m going to wait and see how it opens tomorrow morning to decide.

that sucks...

i think there was some guy on BNN pumping up MS too, just few days ago, he said it was a sure think and what not.... maybe it's a good time to pick some up? it's at 52 week low now...

i got out of oil cause i have no clue where it's going, could go either way...

but the market just want to keep on going, look at the DOW, watch it close GREEN today too...

[Super_Geo]

Just picked up 1500 shares of HNU at lunch @ $4.50! Was thinking of picking it up this morning in the low $4.40s, but gas looked like it could keep falling from $3.460.

Popped my commodities ETF cherry, hope this one doesn't leave me curled up, crying and bleeding out the ass like my first shot at penny stocks on the venture exchange did...

[The_Rural_Juror]

Good luck!

[KleanCord]

If you believe in Fibnoacci for market targets, our next stop would be 9137. We came within a dozen points of that today and it started the early morning sell off. I for one have sold out of most of my long positions and I am waiting for a pullback to 8600.

I took out some shorts today, unfortunately one of them was at the bottom of todays range. But I feel that all signs point to down no matter what CNBC says (I had to turn them off today, they are f'in with my mind).

1) Top end of range
2) Close to Fib target
3) Overbought (RSI exceeded 70 for the first time since god knows when)
4) Candle sticks are forming a bunch of smaller bodies and sticks on both ends. I am not too sure on Candlestick terminology but it just looks like reversal time.
5) Volume was still nothing special. Speaking of this I love how CNBC reports it goes up on good volume and yet you look for yourself and it really is no different.

That said if the markets happen to surprise me I won't be holding onto my positions too long. God knows I have seen enough surprises these last few months to last a lifetime.

I still have a small long position in each UUU, AGU, and SC just because I liked how they were looking.

[997TT]

I'm still holding HND / HOD.

decent drop off their highs but i have faith the markets will pull the commodities a bit lower (i hope)

[DRKM]

Take a look at the volume of oil traded lately ad you can see that the ralley has been tapering off for a couple days now. Its a matter of time...

[max_boost]

Well some good news I suppose.

Getting raped on HNU but that's expected.

But I actually got stopped out of XIU surprisingly.

Stop set at $16.30. Markets opened at $16.20 but the day high was $16.36 so it fell backwards allowing me to get out haha Pocket just under $12K. Can't complain hehe

Every penny matters when you have 7000 shares. :devil:

So, waiting for pullback now. :dunno:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Well some good news I suppose.

Getting raped on HNU but that's expected.

But I actually got stopped out of XIU surprisingly.

Stop set at $16.30. Markets opened at $16.20 but the day high was $16.36 so it fell backwards allowing me to get out haha Pocket just under $12K. Can't complain hehe

Every penny matters when you have 7000 shares. :devil:

So, waiting for pullback now. :dunno:

very nice, smart trade..... :thumbsup:

when do you plan on getting back in?


anyone pick any HGU ?? didn't see it till end of the day and was to late......

[max_boost]

You know, you cheer for bull or bear depending what side you are on obviously but I would like it to fall to 10,000 again.

10,000----->11,000------>10,000----->11,000 etc.

Rinse/Repeat haha

[Dinan]

you had another points to go till 11 000 , that's another 5k for you......... you still going to buy 7k hehehehe.....


i think i'll give XIU a try... what was the 2x the leverage ??

[max_boost]

HXU if you want 2X.

Yeah, 10,700, not quite 11,000 but I'll take it haha

XIU is sputnik approved lol

If you have a large sum of money this would be the safer way to play things and even if you get caught, this is one you could average down and if the market doesn't come back, not very many people are going to make money out there anyway. :thumbsup:

[Dinan]

sounds good, but i don't have that much cash to buy 7k...... maybe HXU would be better for a quick flip with less shares??


did you buy the 7k at one shot or you averaged down and ended up with 7k?

what was your entry price? where was the TSX at?




oil is down under 67$,,,, good for whoever held onto HOD....

[max_boost]

HXU definitely better for quick flips. 2X right? But I can't risk that with so much money on the line. Worst case I get caught, I still collect $0.12 dividend on XIU every quarter.

Entry point was around 95-9600 TSX and my cost was $14.60 :D

Yep, all in one shot haha but I was ready to average down if things got to 7500 again.:devil:

[Super_Geo]

So does gas get traded around the clock?

I think gas was a $3.520 at 2PM when the markets closed, and it's currently at $3.545... and seems active still?

[max_boost]

^

Yep it's traded overseas but volumes are low. Major movements are during our (NA) trading hours. I don't follow nat gas much but I've seen oil up +$2 over night before but once morning rolls around, it drops like bricks lol

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
HXU definitely better for quick flips. 2X right? But I can't risk that with so much money on the line. Worst case I get caught, I still collect $0.12 dividend on XIU every quarter.

Entry point was around 95-9600 TSX and my cost was $14.60 :D

Yep, all in one shot haha but I was ready to average down if things got to 7500 again.:devil:


XIU seems to be for ppl with lots of cash or for a long play, but for quick flip not so much.....


i'll give HXU a try.... or HXD when we hit 11 000 :devil:

[DRKM]

http://i659.photobucket.com/albums/uu316/ri0tpatch/Euro.jpg

To back up SR. It seems that the Euro is reaching a double top. 1.4118 should be the next resistance. All hail the mighty dollar.

What should be the next major support after that?

Still holding HOD, this low volume and rebound of the dollar is sure to come. Its only a matter of time....

[Dinan]

well oil is under 66$.... SR was bang on, AGAIN :D


so SR, you still buying HOU at this price?

what would be a good buy today?? HGU?

[davidI]

Haha, well, I guess I won't get my pop in the index. Oh well, I only bought small lots and will average down if things continue to slide. Ditching HXU at market open though. Only had 100 shares so it's a small loss.

Hopefully I can pick up some more stuff on the cheap. Don't want to go too crazy right away though in case this is the point where the TSX slides back to 10k!

[SilverRex]

alright, so yesterday it finally market moved back to my expectation, just when you thinik, wow technically things are not playing out, than bam, it goes back to what it should be doing.

when oil broke above 66-67.6 the signalled that the 73.9 high is no longer a high and in the next month or two we could possibly see a new high, but before that happen, price has already swoon significantly, only a matter of a time until it runs out of steam and has to pull back. Its during this pull back that we HOD bag holders need to find an exit. and perhaps even consider long if oil bottoms.

as you can see once oil re-enters under 67.6 it was what we wanted to see. it even broke the uptrend line overseas trading this morning, now oil is holding just under 66, again you can also see there is another neckline holding it as well. breaking this neckline should push oil lower possibly to 64.

I've shown in brown the 3 retracement fibo targets near 64.9, 63.6 and 62.4. I think key is oil should most likely find a bottom some where between 61.5-65 until DOW finds its own bottom, then make a final run to new highs for one last push.

why 61.5? well there is the obvious daily up trend line coming from 45 oil and the recent 58 oil now at 61.5, but since I dont think oil will drop like a brick today, most likely by the time oil trace out its fibo levels the trend line will have then be at 62-64.

However as for as todays goes, dont be surprise if oil suddenly rise back to 67 to retest its breakout trend line, short term I think we have seen the top, and do what you must to exit safely and consider long.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072909.jpg

ok now for gold, while we are all focused on oil so much these day, we forget some times how much profit we can seek playing gold as well. Gold was not as exiting for so many days having been stuck in the range of 947-957, but I have continued to hammer the importance of 957 gold as being a top, and luckily I shorted some my self and my target 937 was hit in no time yesterday after it broke below 947 which I also suggest is the trigger. Now if only thse market play out like that every day. Of course I will be retiring early, unfornately, they dont, that is why its always important to have a exit and take profit strategy so you dont end up holding the bag. what I learn in the past is, you ought to really minimize loss as much as possible and maximize gains once you picked the right direction. I'm sure you know what that means.

so while I write this gold is trading below 937 which was a previous resistance and now as support. however with some oversold condition popping up and the euro is near an important support, I too wont be surprised if it can climb back up to 943-947. But if it does, I think it'll offer up some good short opportunity, unless it takes off above 943, I think gold is bearish and next support should be ready to test 927 soon. Now if all of us would have shorted gold at 957 like there is no tomorrow, when gold hit 937 we really should think about taking some profit and letting the other run. See where I am going with this :/

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072909.jpg

well one more chart to post, the dollar. why everything tanked? well look at the dollar, it broke out of a downward trend channel so that is why I feel oil should dip lower and we should see a temp top for oil and euro.

anyways premarket is lower and though we finally have some bearish momentum and I expect market could put in a dead cat bounce today. but if trend resumes, oil breaks lower, gold breaks lower, euro breaks lower and the dollar makes a higher price.

then its time to watch some key levels.

for euro 4072 has to hold if there is still any upside coming which will be reflected in the eventual rise for DOW to 9400+, the US dollar index 79.69 also needs to hold. I suspect these level will provide short term support and resistance if the market is to make new highs. but if they do not. then what that may signal is that we could very well seen the bottom for the US dollar and top for euro and the stock market could be finished early. Now that would be a surprise because the market shouldnt have peaked just yet not until Sept accroding to a cyclist.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072909.jpg

[cidley69]

Hey Dinan and max_boost, does it seem like the TSX has reached a top and will start falling a bit from here?

[Vanish3d]

I got out of HOD yesterday at breakeven point... Shoulda waited but I didn't feel too right about holding right now.

I think I'm going to jump into MS today for a gamble since its extremely cheap. Any ideas?

[davidI]

Originally posted by cidley69
Hey Dinan and max_boost, does it seem like the TSX has reached a top and will start falling a bit from here?

Could be a dead-cat bounce as SR said. I think the durable goods report will have a big influence today as far as how sentiment goes.

I'm happy I held on to half my HOD position yesterday. Will sell today and have made a small profit on that. Not necessarily worth the stress though :nut:

[997TT]

Should be up nicely on HND looknig at opening bid/ask's and might even get to break even on HOD today. Woohoo

[Dinan]

ahhhhh,,,,, SR is always right, i sold yesterday and bought half of the shares baack.... i'm out now....


i'll try and buy some HGU at 927 for a flip.... would it be a good idea to buy back HOD if oil gets to 67?

[KleanCord]

As for Gold I think it is important to realize that there was no news yesterday and it just happened to be options expiration on the August contracts I believe. Max pain was at $940 and surprise surprise Gold was pushed below $940 in less than 4 hours.

I think that was pure manipulation and should not be looked into any further. This week traders are also forced to liquidate their August contracts if they are not taking physical delivery so this typically causes further downward pressure for the banks to short.

I would not be surprised if this forces Gold lower and then a large snapback as banks buy at the lower levels. Call me crazy.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cidley69
Hey Dinan and max_boost, does it seem like the TSX has reached a top and will start falling a bit from here?

i think will have a small bounce either today end of the day or tomorrow and then down we go some more.... i think will see 10k before 11k on the TSX

[Dinan]

anyone else thinking about some HGU ??


SR is HGU a good buy?


there goes my 80 cents profit on HOD, for being a puss... :banghead: :banghead:

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Dinan
anyone else thinking about some HGU ??


SR is HGU a good buy?


there goes my 80 cents profit on HOD, for being a puss... :banghead: :banghead:

ya... i hear ya on HOD

I have an order for HGU at 9.5. We'll see if it gets filled.

[Dinan]

why 9.50 ? 920 gold ???

[Vanish3d]

I wanna get in if it breaks 927 so just a random number below 927 gold. No actual reason.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I wanna get in if it breaks 927 so just a random number below 927 gold. No actual reason.

if 927 is a good support why would you buy under it, if it breaks that it would head further down... no?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by DRKM
http://i659.photobucket.com/albums/uu316/ri0tpatch/Euro.jpg

To back up SR. It seems that the Euro is reaching a double top. 1.4118 should be the next resistance. All hail the mighty dollar.

What should be the next major support after that?

Still holding HOD, this low volume and rebound of the dollar is sure to come. Its only a matter of time....

thats a really good site:thumbsup:

do you know of something like that for oil and gold? and canadian stocks? a real time chart that you can edit and plug in indicators?

i use freestockcharts.com but thats only for US stocks and doesn't do commodities


thanks!