Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Sprockett]

www.goldprice.org - the real time charts lick java plugin has something similar

[997TT]

Put in stop losses for HND at $12 and HOD at $13.30 just before inventory reports.

then BAM ... both go up.

Time to bump my stops up...wow

[Dinan]

^^^ thanks.... anyone other ones..??




HOD :banghead: :banghead:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


thats a really good site:thumbsup:

do you know of something like that for oil and gold? and canadian stocks? a real time chart that you can edit and plug in indicators?

i use freestockcharts.com but thats only for US stocks and doesn't do commodities


thanks!

yup netdania has oil and gold as well as DOW

[Sprockett]

^^ yes, actually net dania has the same instruments listed...in fact the entire 'app' looks the same.

[Dinan]

^^^ thanks... didn't see that....


anyone buying HOU?


i bought some at 7.90 .... :nut:

[davidI]

Sold HOD too early! Oh well, at least I'm in the +!

[Red@8]

Out of HOD at $13.70

[Dinan]

63.75 better hold or i'm fucked with HOU.... anyone else smart enough like me, bought some....:banghead:

[SilverRex]

bought HOU 7.76

may uy another position if oil dips to 62.50 then im going to attampt to hold oil until at least 75 :) unless things changes technically like dollar index breaking above 79.69, then may need to revise out look, but if the recent rally was a 1st wave, then right now oil is correcting in a wave 2 once bottom should make a longer wave 3 possibly breaking the 73.9 barrier

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
bought HOU 7.76

may uy another position if oil dips to 62.50 then im going to attampt to hold oil until at least 75 :) unless things changes technically like dollar index breaking above 79.69, then may need to revise out look, but if the recent rally was a 1st wave, then right now oil is correcting in a wave 2 once bottom should make a longer wave 3 possibly breaking the 73.9 barrier

alright... makes me feel better that you bought some too :D

i have a feeling we are having another group buy :)

i only bought 500.... i don't know if i should buy some more....

[997TT]

So you guys are back onto bull now .... damn

moved my stops up to $12.25 on HND and $13.55 on HOD.

I'll probably get taken out by a intraday swing but at least i've protected some gains.

[Dinan]

wow, oil is still crashing......


damn oil is down 4$:eek:

[RX_EVOLV]

ok I'm in on HOU too! :thumbsup:

[997TT]

This sell off is insane

i just keep moving my stops up 0.15-0.2 and they never fill.

HOD almost 12% ... ssswwweeeettttt

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
This sell off is insane

i just keep moving my stops up 0.15-0.2 and they never fill.

HOD almost 12% ... ssswwweeeettttt


nice, but i would sell man, oil is down 4$, can't go much more lol... :nut: i said that when it hit 2.50 down lol but yeah... goodluck!

[davidI]

HOU at $7.60 lol. Why do I keep doing this to myself!?

[DRKM]

Out of HOD at 14.04. Damn, what a run today.
Thinking of buying HOU if oil falls further.

[Vanish3d]

damn I wish I had more money. There is too much shit out there that I wanna get into.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yup netdania has oil and gold as well as DOW

is that the program you use??


damn it's 850 euros for a month.....

[997TT]

i'm not sold this is a one day pop ... hate to sound greedy and all.

so hard to make money in markets ...yet so easy to lose money and let emotions dictate your actions.

I'm pretty close to getting stopped out of HND ...but it has legs to run to $15 so i'm not sure i want to get stopped out.

HOD, got a 0.3 cushion btw my stop and current price of 14.11.

overall what a freaking day to be 2x short. Love it.

[Dinan]

i'm surprised that the TSX isn't down more... oil down 4$,nat gas down 13cents and gold is down 11$ .... should be down 300 points...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by DRKM
Out of HOD at 14.04. Damn, what a run today.
Thinking of buying HOU if oil falls further.

hey did you subscribe with netdania, your window is huge, mine is soo small ....

[997TT]

Nat gas ...here we go
making a push for double digits on HND?

So how many of you are ready to buy at $4 HNU?

Oilngold is saying Nat Gas prices of $3.15-3.22 with possibility of going under $3.

[SilverRex]

^

it is possible, very much since NG technically is still very bearish, but if oil is to make higher, then there is still some life in NG once it finds a bottom. definately very attractive if it gets back to 3-3.25

us dollar index came close to 79.69, I Feel we've seen the lows for today.,

[Dinan]

^^^ you use the NetDania application?


i'm thinking about picking up some HNU, very soon....

[997TT]

HND $12.98 ... HNU $4.11

wow.

I had a stop in on HND at $12.45 when it was trading in the 12.50-12.58 range.

Now its 0.50 higher ... in maybe 20-30 min.

time to move my stop up again .... crazy morning.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
HND $12.98 ... HNU $4.11

wow.

I had a stop in on HND at $12.45 when it was trading in the 12.50-12.58 range.

Now its 0.50 higher ... in maybe 20-30 min.

time to move my stop up again .... crazy morning.


things are looking good for you :thumbsup:


bought some HNU.....

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^^ you use the NetDania application?


The pop out Java version is free, I'm sure that's what everyone uses.

[997TT]

sold half my position in HNU/HOD at $12.90/$14.01

see what happens with the other half.

edit: Right after i sell HND goes up 0.26 in seconds .. haha.
HNU at $4.03

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok

The pop out Java version is free, I'm sure that's what everyone uses.

i think SR has the application....

i don't know about DRKM, cause his window is much bigger then the one i get... :dunno:

how big is yours?

[Vanish3d]

i think we may see new 52wk low HNU today

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Dinan


i think SR has the application....

i don't know about DRKM, cause his window is much bigger then the one i get... :dunno:

how big is yours?
Click the little pin and it opens it up in a new window, it's size is limited by your screen resolution

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok

Click the little pin and it opens it up in a new window, it's size is limited by your screen resolution

thanks guy!!!:thumbsup: :thumbsup:



so whats the difference in the one you pay 850 a month :eek:


it's probably real time and not 30min delayed....

[Rat Fink]

.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by cidley69
Hey Dinan and max_boost, does it seem like the TSX has reached a top and will start falling a bit from here? Yeah looks like it. Who knows though.

Looks like I am buying on stop and selling on stop from here on out haha

The buy and hold thing won't work because you miss out on all the action in between.

[max_boost]

I knew I should have sold my HNU at $5.50. I knew it! lol

[Z_Fan]

I probably would have if I was not out that morning. Cuz I had just bought it the day before and would have made $800 quickly. But I held and now I'm fucking $3000 behind. :banghead: :thumbsdow :devil:

Fuck. :dunno:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
I knew I should have sold my HNU at $5.50. I knew it! lol
yeah beeing trying to convince everyone to start taking profit off the table when NG was near 4.07 (it got to 4.04), and unless it can take out 4.32, the over all bias is still very very bearish.

anyhow if oil has one more rally higher, then NG probablly shouldnt break blow 3 dollar just yet. so this 3-4 dollar range play could very well be what's going to happen for the next few weeks.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
I knew I should have sold my HNU at $5.50. I knew it! lol

tell me about it!:banghead:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex

yeah beeing trying to convince everyone to start taking profit off the table when NG was near 4.07 (it got to 4.04), and unless it can take out 4.32, the over all bias is still very very bearish.

anyhow if oil has one more rally higher, then NG probablly shouldnt break blow 3 dollar just yet. so this 3-4 dollar range play could very well be what's going to happen for the next few weeks.

so oil SHOULD have one more rally, still have your target at 75 oil??


i was looking at the august contract :banghead: for NG, thats why i kinda didn't get out, i was thinking it would still go... but it was the september contract


when do you guys use the next month contract? cause i use the one that BNN has..... which is the august, still for NG...

[cdnsir]

Hey when does the contacts terminate for futures again? Say NG's August contracts end on Jul 29 right. Does it cut on Jul 29 00:00am or Jul 29 11:59pm?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


so oil SHOULD have one more rally, still have your target at 75 oil??





yes I am expecting oil to at least make a new high while a range between 75-80 is possible, after oil violating a key EW resistance near 66.38, the entire structure is marking a higher target and it is in this that I also believe DOW has more up side to go.

but everything else has to line up as well, so far euro isnt helping by crashing thru 4072, but the dollar index is still under 79.69. So we just have to review this day by day. until things change again (which I hope not) im expecting higher oil, higher dow once market bottoms out.

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by SilverRex
yeah beeing trying to convince everyone to start taking profit off the table when NG was near 4.07 (it got to 4.04), and unless it can take out 4.32, the over all bias is still very very bearish.

anyhow if oil has one more rally higher, then NG probablly shouldnt break blow 3 dollar just yet. so this 3-4 dollar range play could very well be what's going to happen for the next few weeks.

I was nervously watching HNU this morning and set a stop at $4.40... good thing I did!

So do you think gas will go under $3?? Are the gas producers even making money at that price? Anyone have long term thoughts on gas?

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Super_Geo


I was nervously watching HNU this morning and set a stop at $4.40... good thing I did!



LOL I think I bought your HNU from you then!

[Dinan]

in HNU at 4.11 .... thinking of picking up some HGU, waht you think SR, it's right on 927...

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex

yeah beeing trying to convince everyone to start taking profit off the table when NG was near 4.07 (it got to 4.04), and unless it can take out 4.32, the over all bias is still very very bearish.

anyhow if oil has one more rally higher, then NG probablly shouldnt break blow 3 dollar just yet. so this 3-4 dollar range play could very well be what's going to happen for the next few weeks.

Just an example of how you lose out on 2X ETF if you hold on long term amidst fluctuations like this.

I originally bought my $6HNU when nat gas was at $4, if I want to break even, nat gas will have to hit around $4.20 now. :facepalm:

Looks I will have to average down somewhere if I want to have a shot to get out even on the next rally. Or I could buy and continue to watch it fall further, just like HOU back in the day.


FWIW, a close friend's buddy who works at EOG said they have new technology which makes finding nat gas a lot easier and they have found some very large reserves.

I am contemplating just selling it at a loss out right, what the heck?

Entry point for the TSX? SR? What do you think? 10,000? 9,500?

[Rat Fink]

.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
Brought my HNU cost average from 5.19 down to 4.67 :nut:

That's 2 average downs now right? :devil:

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


Yup, I think original purchase was 6.11 or something around there.

Selling on the next pop. Made up my mind on it. :rofl:

selling it ALL ???

my average now is 5.30 with the share i have now, if i dind't flip the others it would have been 4.7, i made some cash so it's all good...

you guys have no faith in NG :nut: lol

[max_boost]

Tomorrow is inventory count on nat gas. I'm not confident at all. To average or not to average. :nut: :dunno:

[Dinan]

wow, oil is 4.5$ down :eek: almost at 62.5.....

[Vanish3d]

just got into HOU at 7.5.... hopefully thats bottom or close to.

now lets see $70+ oil

[KleanCord]

Wouldn't oil crashing make sense from a standard fib sequence on the Dow?

By this I mean oil has typically been a leader of the DOw and as oil has gone up the DOW soon follows and as it heads lower the DOW follows.

So the DOW by making new highs exceeded the previous high. If you do a fib sequence for targets you would come up with

9130 -> 8600
9270 -> 9130
9400 -> 9270
9667 -> 9400

The overall trend is still up, but at this point it would make sense for a retracement before we blow the doors off.

The one thing I am trying to figure out is that if oil has further downside or should I be looking to cover my HOU short at this point. I do believe that there has to be some give back but does that only come as we approach $61.

The DOW heading to 8600 also makes perfect sense as the 50 day moving average support should show everyone the rally is for real. Additionally I would expect tomorrow to have the DOW fight back a bit since the 9000 provides some support but then possibly on Friday for a further fall and then a bad Monday.

On a comment on China:
Jeremy Grantham said that China was going to surprise investors this year and show terrible numbers in the second half. So far he was right calling for a SP 700 (actual number pretty close), and he said we would rally hard to 1000-1100 and then down, and have 7 lean years.
It is interesting that just a few days after this warning China announces they might withdraw their stimulus and their stock market falls 5% in one day. I have heard Chinese are buying up houses and stocks in truckloads with the new found money since it can't leave the country. Even today I heard that an IPO for an engineering firm that built some Olympic facilities was up 70% in one day. Stuff like that would scare me because it seems like the days of the dot com where IPO after IPO would be snatched up and pumped only show the cruel reality they were a year later.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by max_boost
Tomorrow is inventory count on nat gas. I'm not confident at all. To average or not to average. :nut: :dunno:

Don't average. I can't help myself sometimes and average down on losing positions and in the end I am definitely worse off for it. You may be right this time to average down but that is only a mental win.

Also I find averaging down on leveraged ETFs is an uphill battle.

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost


FWIW, a close friend's buddy who works at EOG said they have new technology which makes finding nat gas a lot easier and they have found some very large reserves.



Your close friend's buddy is probably just talking about the multi-stage frac-jobs they're doing in horizontal wells now to unlock shale gas. Shale gas is just an unconventional resource with huge potential for flooding NA with production for a long-time to come. It will probably keep prices <$7 for years to come as there is just so much supply available now that wasn't before. When you hear about Dilly Creek or Horn River or the Marcellus it's all about Shale Gas. Could be huge. I wouldn't take it into consideration when playing HND / HNU though since those aren't great long-term plays anyways....but it's definitely something to consider when talking about holding NG long-term!

[max_boost]

Originally posted by KleanCord


Don't average. I can't help myself sometimes and average down on losing positions and in the end I am definitely worse off for it. You may be right this time to average down but that is only a mental win.

Also I find averaging down on leveraged ETFs is an uphill battle.

:werd:

Been there done that many many many times hahaha

That's why XIU for me only. Trust nothing else hahaha

[Sprockett]

Overlay the USD Index against Oil. What are we really trading there? Oil? or just the inverse of what it's measured against?

Same can be said for most commodities, gold, natgas, whatever...

[997TT]

so i dont know if i should sell my remaining half now before close or just keep them overnight?

HNU is down quite a bit (0.50) from its highs but HOD is up 0.25 from where i sold

frick... what to do?

edit: last half of HOD out at $14.29

now just holding HND... gonna hold overnight.
had the order screen up for HOU but just gonna watch and look to see how tomorrow plays out.

[Dinan]

^^^ you did good!!


is it me or shouldn't the markets be much more in RED then what they closed??


:dunno:

[Dinan]

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.39 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

[SilverRex]

ok so yesterday it was a great day because the move for gold and oil moved in our initial favor and even overshot my target by the widest of margin, which is a good thing if you had used a sell half and hold longer strategy. and even for those who were screaming for exit would and should have found one.

but now that oil has dropped so much suddenly, it does put us on the edge because a move down like that can some times be viewed as impulsive, which means impulsives are usually the main trend and the opposite direction is usually corrective. No matter we will have to watch extremely closely to key levels on the euro, dollar index to get a clue if we are in the right direction.

just by looking at oil, after finding a bottom below 63, it has moved up just above 64 over night or overseas which ever works for you and appears like it is breaking away from a sharp down trend line, as it comes out of over sold conditions, even if we expect the main trend is up, this fierce down leg will make it difficult for it to climb. And so our eyes will be to see if oil can get back above 66.

Now as I suggested ysterday, there is two opposite fibo levels situated at 63.5 and about 64, so I guess it wasnt a surprise after all that price is holding its ground here., even if oil should resume its swoon, the limited down side for today would only put it between 61-62.5. However with the DOW premarket so far is showing positive move up in them morning, I expect oil to climb slowly until it finds trouble near 65+, now is oil on the run to 75+ we will have to monitor closely the dollar chart which I'll explain later.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil073009.jpg

Now gold just when you dont put much thought into it, is performing beautifully, my idea that yesterday unless it can climb above 943 didnt happen, the next target would be 927, and it pretty much went straight after that getting as low as 925. giving 927 is A fibo support, buying as since started and gold has climbed very slowly to 933 as of right now. The next fibo support and last of it is at 913, but given there is a very important up trend line coming in on the daily chart now sitting at 924, I expect gold shouldnt break this level just yet today. but if it did, then this could signal a major trend change that gold is about to roll over lower to the down side. so this up trend line has to be viewed as a very important level imo. similar to oil, I would expect a slow climb for gold then to be met with some selling pressure when it gets to 937. bulls will not have much momentum unless it can get over 943 so therefore not going to expect too much action in gold a bit of a range trading could be in play between 925-943

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold073009.jpg

ok and for the US dollar index, I had mention that the 79.69 is extremely importnat if there is any further upside to oil and DOW even though it seems the DOW is refusing to follow much of the euro and dollar index lately. That is why I said oil bleeding should stop, because I dont think the dollar index can pass thru 79.69 on 1st attampt and so it made alittle double top and came down since. On initial thought if I wanted to believe the stock market is headed higher so is oil and yes it will bring gold up a bit too then watch this level. so long this level is not broken to the upside I expect oil is very much in a corrective state that once finished so begin some quick rises to 75 but in the event it does break above then that is a very concerning fact that we could possibly have seen the low for the US dollar this would be negative across all sectors other than the dollar itself.

Remember I also mention the euro at 4072 is very important? yesterday it crashed below it to about 4000, which is very damaging to the bullish out look on euro and in turn the dollar as the dollar index is made up by 57% of the euro I believe. So if euro does not get back above 4072 soon, then this would also be viewed as euro completing a 5th wave top and quite possibly put an end to any more upside. This will be bad, again confirming the dollar may have bottomed. I expect the euro to slowly rise back above 4072 over time, so expect everything to climb slowly for most sectors today and unless those important levels I mention is broken then all bets are off.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar073009.jpg

[cosmok]

^^Great calls on the market movement this last week

[997TT]

ditto...good stuff.

lucky i got out of HOD yesterday. But even though i had the order screen up for HOU...i pussed out.

haha

[davidI]

I picked up some HOU at $7.60. Just trying to decide now whether I should sell today at a small profit or hope for better tomorrow!?

[cosmok]

I flipped all my HOD for HOU at 1:45 yesterday haha, pretty happy with that one.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
ditto...good stuff.

lucky i got out of HOD yesterday. But even though i had the order screen up for HOU...i pussed out.

haha

i passed out HGU for a penny lol... :(


SR, where would you look to sell half of HOU ? 64.89, 38% fibo ....

[SilverRex]

hmm

im wondering if the market wants to make a divergence here by testing yesterday's lows because euro is falling right now, oil is having trouble at 65 and on the dollar index it wants to test 79.50 again, now the picture may look like it wants to break out but possibly a divergence could take place.

[Super_Geo]

What are your guys' thoughts on NG?

It's down slightly out of the gates, but the DOW seems to be doing well out of the gates...

[997TT]

Call me crazy but I'm actually thinking of buying HOD here?

I see some sideways consolidation followed by more decline.

anybody else thinking the same?

Still holding my HND shares....will probably set a stop before inventory reports are released

[SilverRex]

if euro doesnt get back above 4040 within the next 10-15 mins, we could see a weak morning

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by 997TT
Still holding my HND shares....will probably set a stop before inventory reports are released

When is this set for?

[997TT]

^ today at 10:30EST (or 8:30MST)

[SilverRex]

welp euro is making a coming back now 4036 and DOW is just flying off the roof, come on euro hold :) euro closing above 4040 at 8 pm should signal this was a false break down

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
welp euro is making a coming back now 4036 and DOW is just flying off the roof, come on euro hold :) euro closing above 4040 at 8 pm should signal this was a false break down

why 4040?? 8 pm???

[SilverRex]

just a technical thing on the 1 hour chart, well it is teasing me that it closed at 4038.9 dam you

[Dinan]

so what you doing with HOU/??

[997TT]

alright time to gamble a bit with some gains.

picked up 3k HND at 12.65 ... stop loss on all 4500 shares at 12.45 if $hit hits the fan btw now and inventory reports

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by 997TT
alright time to gamble a bit with some gains.

picked up 3k HND at 12.65 ... stop loss on all 4500 shares at 12.45 if $hit hits the fan btw now and inventory reports

I'm on the other side of the coin... I get back into HNU yesterday at 4.13. Going to set stops at 4.15.

I'm hoping the markets over-sold in anticipation of inventory. I don't know if that was a bad gut decision, but how much lower can gas go?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Super_Geo


I'm on the other side of the coin... I get back into HNU yesterday at 4.13. Going to set stops at 4.15.

I'm hoping the markets over-sold in anticipation of inventory. I don't know if that was a bad gut decision, but how much lower can gas go?


i got a stop at 4.16... goodluck :thumbsup:

[997TT]

haha so one of us will get stopped out for sure.

good luck guys ... our stops are so tight that once the news hits and the prices move our stops will be triggered within seconds.

man, oil is on a war path. glad i didn't buy HOD yet ... now looking a lot better

[Dinan]

SR, whats the indicator above your MACD ??



4 more minutes and will see what happens with NG:drama:

[SilverRex]

^

Stochastic

I use that for divergence over buying and overselling

[Dinan]

is that something like RSI ??

[Super_Geo]

Gas pops!

[997TT]

stopped out.... man HND is bouncing all over the place
its jumping 0.3 at a time...WTF

[KRZY403]

damn knew i should have bought more

[997TT]

Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,023 Bcf as of Friday, July 24, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 71 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 571 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 478 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,545 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 132 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 56 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 265 Bcf above the 5-year average of 794 Bcf after a net injection of 16 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 80 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 1 Bcf. At 3,023 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

WTF...now HND is back to my stop
after testing $12.00
haha

In HNU now ... haha. I wonder why i lose money in the markets. Cause i'm always chasing shit. lol

[Dinan]

out of HOU....

[RX_EVOLV]

ok out of HOU @ 8.32.

What to buy next :D

[Super_Geo]

What are your guys' thoughts on gas?

I moved my stop up to 4.46, hopefully this is a long run all the way to the 5s!

[davidI]

Well, I'm out of HOU at $8.11. I'm missing part of the run but I'm happy taking the profit.

I'm happy with all the buys I made yesterday though (except for TLM - wtf is up with it!?)

[Vanish3d]

none of you wanted to hold (or hold half) till 70+ oil?

[cosmok]

^^ I think I'm going to hold it

[Dinan]

lets go NG, im using stops with this, i should have with HOU, i got out at 8.25 bit early, but it's all good... i got my stop at 4.44 on HNU for some shares.... hope it doesn't hit

[Super_Geo]

Fuck I noobed it up and moved my stop too high... it just hit 4.46 to take out my stop, should've left it at 4.40 like I originally had it...

[max_boost]

Well so long, I am out of HNU. I took the loss. Meh, whatever. :rofl: No patience with the 2X.

I hope it pops all the way to $7 for you guys now. It's been awhile since I took one for the team.;)

[Dinan]

well 4.66 is giving some resistance it will either go up or down from here :nut:


i blanked and miss a buy on HGU :(


maybe buy some HGD when gold hits 944 ?? what you think SR?

[Dinan]

damn, got stopped out of HNU at 4.44, but still got some shares at 4.33 .... without a stop...