Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
welp if 3.97 NG is the opening price that is about 17% gain on hnu off friday's close DAM

lets hope so....are you selling, or waiting for 4.27 ??


what happened to the squeeze play show on BNN?? :dunno:

[SilverRex]

^ keep in mind I feel the dollar is extremely close to a bottom and the market is close to a top, NG is no way have bottomed out till it can start trading about 4.07 especially above 4.32 and stay there. until then expect weakness coming in the next few months.

I'll definately be taking my profit off the table first thing tuesday if price remains current level.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^ keep in mind I feel the dollar is extremely close to a bottom and the market is close to a top, NG is no way have bottomed out till it can start trading about 4.07 especially above 4.32 and stay there. until then expect weakness coming in the next few months.

I'll definately be taking my profit off the table first thing tuesday if price remains current level.

yes true, and i agree, i would be taking my profit and as much more as i can that are in the high 5"s..... but then again NG doesn't really fallow anything and the winter months on the way it should be good for NG price?


maybe this long weekend will end up being better for US, cause i know i wouldn't have kept my HNU, i would have sold way earlier lol...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


lets hope so....are you selling, or waiting for 4.27 ??


what happened to the squeeze play show on BNN?? :dunno:

I did more of a conservative target for 3.91 because the englufing bar last week was quite strong and so I expect NG to at least move higher, so when the bias for oil was up (which NG tends to follow eventually) and NG was actaully down, I knew it will rally hard as NG some how is a step behind. 3.65-3.91 is what I was expecting for myself. but I Cant rule out it can head higher because price projection 82 cent from the previous rise could be the play here, that would take it to 4.27 which is darn close to the 4.32 area. it wont be easy even if price hit those level it will sell off in a heart beat imo, so taking profit have to be swift and fast.

the one strategy that always work is to sell half, if you havent got this idea hammer in your head then pre prepare to get disappointed more often than not. Otherwise, start taking profit, depending on how much you invest. keep selling half at important levels and try to max your gain.

[Dinan]

yeah i would have been out at 3.77, lucky :clap: finally some luck for our HNU group buy :D

lets just hope it holds at least till 9:35 tomorrow :)


so at 4.02NG that would be something like 5.20+ HNU :)

wow, now i can see holding 2x EFT's longs, specially volatile ones like NG can suck!

when i bought my first shares at 4.96 or soo NG were 5.97 HNU, and now at 4$ HNU you'll be at 5.20 or so HNU :facepalm:

[SilverRex]

about 4.05 that is like 22% off fridays 4.5 close. making it to about 5.48 that some crazy up move, good luck on tuesday is all I have to say

time to go do some shopping :)

[civic_rida]

Whats everyones average?
Mines 4.50

[Dinan]

^^ i see how you calculated that, makes sense, but i noticed for every cent NG moves HNU moves about 2 cents... it's been working for me, i said it would hit 4.29 at 4.57NG on friday and it did and went a cent less...

+ .37 NG should be .74 HNU, 4.50+.74 thats 5.24HNU....


but i like 5.48 much BETTER :)


oil is up 2.60 too, NICE for whoever is holding...! sold mine way to early! :facepalm:

[Dinan]

962.5 seems to have held for GOLD... so far...

maybe sell HNU and BUY HND tomorrow :)

[Super_Geo]

Hahaha this is really killing me that the markets are closed today.

NG and Oil are going to pull back right out of the gates tomorrow as every single Canadian holder sells at least part of their position tomorrow morning to lock in substantial gains.

The real question is... will the commodities continue to get pulled down by all the selling pressure or will it revert back up.


Regardless, :thumbsup: for HOU and HNU holders! What a nice little gift at the end of the long weekend.

[civic_rida]

So how many of you put a sell order for hnu or hou?

[Dinan]

Natural gas closed sharply higher on Monday as it extends last Thursday's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.716 is the next upside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.72

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 3.46
Second support is July's low crossing at 3.23



Looking GOOD!!!! lets get that higher open tomorrow, or even steady... :)

i'll be looking to get out at the open...

[Z_Fan]

I'm going to hold mine for at least 15 mins after open.

See which way the wind blows.

Possibly sell half if it looks like a pullback. But if NG is +0.10 before open I'll hang on and see what happens. :poosie:

Sure wish I still had 5000 shares...but I sold some...bummer

[Super_Geo]

I'm going to unload half of my HNU at open and hold HOU for $73 oil.

[Z_Fan]

HNU might be worth less by AM than it was Friday PM.

Nearly 30% of NG gains have already eroded away. It's down nearly 10 cents...

So HNU may not open up near to what everyone was hoping for. I was hoping NG would pop up 10 cents over night. But it looks like it could be 20 cents down...or more...:banghead:

[civic_rida]

Wow bad news. Got my hopes up for nothing.

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
HNU might be worth less by AM than it was Friday PM.

I doubt that... it's at 3.94 right now, and I can see it going as low as 3.80 when the markets open tomorrow morning, but I don't think it'll go below that.

I think it'll regain momentum once the early profit taking completes and people try to add to their position for another NG run IF oil keeps going up... oil's at $71.38 right now so it hasn't lost too much momentum.

[DRKM]

Look guys we are only at Enrique. We got a whole bunch more hurricanes to come! I am not selling hnu till 9 dollars!!!!

[Dinan]

NG is at 4$ now :) hope it holds till 9:30, i'm selling, not going to be greedy, thats more the 20% gain from the close on friday, and i even got in lower:D

[SilverRex]

ok so it was great seeing both oil and NG continued higher on monday, but the fact that we couldnt trade stinks. so for all our sake, lets hope we can get a bit of a rally in the morning to take some profit off the table. Its nice to see that many of you are starting to take the approach of selling half of your holdings. which is exactly what you should do to lock in your profits. You cant underestimate the flexibility it offers. once you do, your always be in a win win situation.

Ok today I am going to start with the US dollar index chart. reason is simple, we are entering the final wave V (in red) of a larger wave .C correction. Once completed it will also be noted as a higher wave II or (B) count that no matter how you slice or dice it, once it bottoms it will head up. If your confused with the fact why I say it could be a wave II or (B) is because if the US dollar rally is not finished then we have plenty of upside ahead of us in this deflationary enviornment. But if the US is about to roll over and inflation is going to take hold next year then we could be seen as an ABC correction that once C completes somewhere above 89 it will start the next leg down for the dollar, perhaps this is when gold will finally crack 1000 and stay there?

Anyways we are too far to suggest that until that happens. so what does this mean? it means the all sectors will soon top out. Just because we are in Wave V doesnt mean we have topped out, we could get a bit of a rally in the dollar then one more pull lower who knows or no one knows how it will bottom, but it will eventually and soon, we will get a much clearer picture after this week, because once we are in strong dollar mode then we will be thinking short all sectors except the dollar. so keep this in the back of your mind.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar080309.jpg

Now as suggested last week, after oil took out the 64 area, it was indeed completed its own correction if you've been following the chart. the initial run to 67.50 appeared what looked like a sub wave I with an ABC pull back to 65. and the recent run we had up to 72 could be viewed as a wave III and we could quite possibly be in a wave IV correction. Giving STOCH is oversold right now. I have to expect oil will find a bottom some where between as weak as 67.50 and 70. why 70? 70 is the 50EMA level which could offer initial support, but we all know wave IV corrections cannot exceed or enter below its prior wave I high, there fore in order for this wave count to continue and offer a wave V top we need oil to stay above 67.50. So in other words as long as 67.50 is not broken, oil should at least give us a bit more upside. it will be even better if oil can put in some sort of triangular consolidation pattern between 70-72. this way confirming we are indeed in a wave IV correction with a breakout to the top side.

Now remember I said keep the US dollar index in the back of your mind. yes, the trick is that if the US dollar starts to rally and bottoms for good. this will cease all sectors from moving higher and oil will too begin rolling over. there fore like what you guys are doing, it is extremely wise to unload half of your position when market opens and use your other half with stops at break even for an attampt at higher prices.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080309.jpg

looking at gold, while the next important resistance was at 971, however gold only managed to hit 961 and now it is back below its important prior resistance at 957. if you think about it, that is pretty weak imo. with DOW achieving new highs and the US dollar actually made a newer low since May, dont you think gold should be near 1000 already? but the fact that it is not should tell you the massive shorting in the COT arena is indeed working. not only the technical picture in the medium looks weak, the fact that there is some force out there that just doesnt want gold to move ahead is happily working their magic.

With all other sectors nearing a top, I would say gold shouldnt have much more upside left. if any maybe 971 is all it will be able to muster. continue to expect 957 to provide resistance. I'll say gold will be a good shorting opporunity with any larger spike or up move between 957-971.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold080309.jpg

[civic_rida]

So what did hnu open at?

[Rat Fink]

.

[Super_Geo]

Sold all of HNU at 5.05... trying to find an exit at HOU at 9.50, might move it down to 9.40

Update: now out of HOU at 9.45

[Z_Fan]

That was fucked at open IMO.

$4.89 and then to $5.10 in 5 seconds, back to $4.82 5 seconds later and then a couple minutes of HUGE gaps between buy and sell prices. A little crazy.

[Z_Fan]

I kept all my shares BTW.

It will probably dwindle (NG price) but I am still thinking NG will be strong for a little bit. Sure hope so anyhow...

If it goes up to $5.20 HNU I might put a stop loss for a small portion of my shares.

[Dinan]

i'm out at 5.04 .... might buy back :nut:


what a whiled ride this morning...

[KRZY403]

all out at 5. should've waited a little longer o well. can't be too greedy

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
That was fucked at open IMO.

Yeah HNU wasn't tracking with the gas price (at least not according to CME.. is CME delayed? I didn't think it was).

I remember HNU being at 5.05 when gas was -9c, then HNU dropped back down to 4.9x while gas held steady at -9c.

Now gas is at -13c, and HNU is at 5.07.

[Dinan]

^^^^ yeah it was a wiled ride! cause of the long weekend...


Originally posted by KRZY403
all out at 5. should've waited a little longer o well. can't be too greedy

thats right!


i was soo close to selling on fridayy! that would have sucked!!!

[SilverRex]

hmmm we are not too far away from some extremely big DOW resistance, 9422-9476

the market has alot of momentum left and looking at euro, something tells me we could see a higher euro than last week because the wave structure looks as though the sharp rise to 4275 on july 31st looks like like wave I completion, then an ABC correction touching off 4206. now if this count is correct, wave III cannot be shorter than wave I, and if wave I putted in about 271 pts, then Wave III euro should at least put in 271 or more from 4206 which would be 4477.

But euro topped out at about 4445. If my asumption is correct, then we should quite possibly see euro make another run this week if not now above 4445 at least achieving higher than 4477.

this would push oil higher, DOW higher, gold to bounce around 957-971 tops, and possibly NG may finally get to our price projected 4.27

of course to invalidate this theory is to have euro break down below 4279.

[Dinan]

^^ you still holding SR? i'm tempted to get back in with few shares

[Rat Fink]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^ you still holding SR? i'm tempted to get back in with few shares

i sold all my HNU because it already hit above my conservative target of 3.91 NG, while it is still a possibility to see closer to 4.27 NG, however just because there is price projection doesnt mean it will get there, but I am happy with my gain.

as for oil I have been holding since 64, but have sold half this morning. Will atampt to hold the other half for higher oil prices, as long as 67.50 holds. I will hold as long as I Can for higher prices.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


i sold all my HNU because it already hit above my conservative target of 3.91 NG, while it is still a possibility to see closer to 4.27 NG, however just because there is price projection doesnt mean it will get there, but I am happy with my gain.

as for oil I have been holding since 64, but have sold half this morning. Will atampt to hold the other half for higher oil prices, as long as 67.50 holds. I will hold as long as I Can for higher prices.

yeah makes sense, oil is more predictable, NG not so much...

if we see 67 oil i'll take a shot and buy some...

Gold seems to have a hard time to get above 962....... and there it goes above now...

[Z_Fan]

I just sold 700 of my shares at $5.24. I bought them just the other day at $4.10 so I did OK on that portion. Still holding a couple thousand shares though.

I put a small amount of $$$ in to HOD. :poosie:

Damn you oil bears.

Still holding some HGU too, but I'm going to take SR's advice and sell it all after this next upwave and I'm swapping straight to HGD after this current run-up loses steam...

[SilverRex]

comment what does anyone think of this analysis?

I believe we still have at least one more deflationary pull back in the market and if the US dollar does start to strength in the coming months. then not only will the stock market start to roll over along with oil but also gold and notably silver which would offer a great shorting opporunity. looking at the silver chart, it's pretty obvious the last down leg was impulsive to the down side suggested an end of the up trend that started late last year by putting in a wave V top above 16.00. this looks like what could be a larger H&S pattern and we are in the course of establishing the right shoulder or the final C correction or a sub wave ii. Wave iii when begin will be sharp and I suspect it will make it all the way to 11.50 before yet another abc correction rally that will take it back to high 13s to retest the broken neckline. Then one more run towards the 8s to complete a even larger ABC correction.

gold and silver will certainly have a higher high in the making but I think we will most likely headed down before going up. I couldnt wait to load up on gold and silver when they drop 30-50% from current levels.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver.jpg

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

so is the recession over or what!?!?!?!! :D

[sputnik]

SR - You seem to be pretty stuck on looking at everything from a Elliot Wave perspective these days.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by sputnik
SR - You seem to be pretty stuck on looking at everything from a Elliot Wave perspective these days.

yup, and im still learning from it every day. I use to never put much thought into it, but as it turns out I find the EW structure does influence the market and only confirm many of my own analysis. EW isnt perfect but numbers and counts can be immediately revised or recount to follow the main trend and that is exactly what we need.

beside what is not to like about it? it offers critical price levels that can tell us if our direction is correct or false.

And I hope my overdone EW charts doesnt offend anyone here, after all most beyonders here proablly can careless about the technical picture of price movements, I think they only want to see which direction the market is moving to make their trading decision.

[Rat Fink]

.

[sputnik]

IMO Elliot Wave Theory is more of a hypothesis than technical analysis.

While Elliot Wave does show up often in graphs it is hard to determine if EW actually influenced the market as a whole or if analysts converge on portions of charts to "prove" the Elliot Wave theory after the fact.

Kind of a chicken or egg problem for me.

[Dinan]

anyone buying HGD?

NG is on the MOVE!!!

[max_boost]

I'm out of XIU. Close enough to 11,000

Took the profits lol

What do I do now?

[max_boost]

10997.7

:D

[sputnik]

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm out of XIU. Close enough to 11,000

Took the profits lol

What do I do now?

Get a box of Kleenex for when you start crying as you watch it climb to 12,000 in a couple of months.

:P

[max_boost]

^
Buy on stop. ;)

[civic_rida]

:banghead:
sell to soon

[Dinan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
:banghead:
sell to soon

HNU, yeah i know, but you never know man, so profit is profit... :D

[Rat Fink]

.

[Super_Geo]

Yeah I'm thinking of getting into HND as well, might get in if NG starts falling from 4.00.

What are you guys' thoughts? Too early to get on the HND train? Or are we about to pull back to 3.75?

Just placed an order at 9.65 HND, see if it gets filled.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

i would wait till 4.20 NG to get HND ....



thinking about HGD, what you guys think?

[Super_Geo]

Well, I'm in HND now. I'm hoping NG pulls back to 3.90 or lower and I'll get out right before 2PM.

[SilverRex]

market is starting to retreat, I suspect the market is very very much due for a pull back. higher highs may not happen until we get a mini correction. look for shorting across the board for a bit here. once market finds a bottom, I believe we will have one final thrust the upside making a higher high then quite possibly the market will then be finished.

if this correction is remotely significant, then it should technically bring down oil and gold some what more than the few dollars we've seen lately.

gold got near the 971 not quite, but would have been a fantastic short , currently is forming a bearish engulfing bar, silver just closed well below its prior open. further weakness coming in.

going to expect DOW to grind lower back to 8800-9000 hopefully this time finally.

I'm exiting all my oil now, looking for a buy back lower, shorted silver at 14.73s

yes I initially expected we could see a bit of wave higher, but so far the last hour or so, some of the patterns look overly bearish to me so I rather anticipate a larger correction now. I'll view any more upside as a divergence

[Dinan]

there is no etf for silver is there? a bear etf??


are you waiting for 67-68 oil to get back in HOU?

[The_Rural_Juror]

Bad day of flipping for me. 21 trades so far and only a quarter were profitable. Overall loss. :(

I'm going to step away from the computer now.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by The_Rural_Juror
Bad day of flipping for me. 21 trades so far and only a quarter were profitable. Overall loss. :(

I'm going to step away from the computer now.

why soo many trades?

[The_Rural_Juror]

itchy fingers man.

[Dinan]

what did you buy?

[The_Rural_Juror]

a bucket full of tears.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm out of XIU. Close enough to 11,000

Took the profits lol

What do I do now?

short gold

[Dinan]

^^^ buy some HGD???

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Dinan
there is no etf for silver is there? a bear etf??


are you waiting for 67-68 oil to get back in HOU?

http://reports.theglobeandmail.com/jcap/en/72645/html/jovian2f/

HZD

:D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost


http://reports.theglobeandmail.com/jcap/en/72645/html/jovian2f/

HZD

:D

thank you Mr. ETF.. heheheh, i'll stay away from that, low volume...

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yes I initially expected we could see a bit of wave higher, but so far the last hour or so, some of the patterns look overly bearish to me so I rather anticipate a larger correction now. I'll view any more upside as a divergence

Would love to see things retreat back to around 10,000 before trekking upwards again, rinse and then repeat hehe

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Dinan


thank you Mr. ETF.. heheheh, i'll stay away from that, low volume...

I don't think volume matters on these, you get out regardless. HBP makes money on the service fees built into the price. Remember, unlike a traditional stock you need a buyer and seller but these you are buying/selling them to the company which holds them. As long as the price hits the corresponding price on the commodity, you can sell.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost


I don't think volume matters on these, you get out regardless. HBP makes money on the service fees built into the price. Remember, unlike a traditional stock you need a buyer and seller but these you are buying/selling them to the company which holds them. As long as the price hits the corresponding price on the commodity, you can sell.

yes, true true, :D


did you buy any HGD? :devil:

[max_boost]

Who was that brother that predicted $30 oil and then predicted $20 BAC?

BAC at $15.73 now. Remember when it was at $2.50?

Good times. :devil:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Dinan


yes, true true, :D


did you buy any HGD? :devil:

No brother. I have seen the light now.

The ONLY thing I buy is XIU.

That's how the fuck I roll from now on hahaha

:angel:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost


No brother. I have seen the light now.

The ONLY thing I buy is XIU.

That's how the fuck I roll from now on hahaha

:angel:

hahahahahhaa, not even for some lunch money:devil: :rofl:

[KappaSigma]

Anyone help me out. Looking for a good chart for prices of copper (something with some history as well).

5 years, etc. thx

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Anyone help me out. Looking for a good chart for prices of copper (something with some history as well).

5 years, etc. thx

here you go bud...

http://stockcharts.com/index.html

[Z_Fan]

Well, I sold some more of my HNU at $5.34.

Still have 2000 shares left.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Well, I sold some more of my HNU at $5.34.

Still have 2000 shares left.

wow, can't believe how strong you are and held on heehehhe :D


did you buy all those at 4.1... nice job!!!

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by Dinan


here you go bud...

http://stockcharts.com/index.html

thx u

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Dinan


wow, can't believe how strong you are and held on heehehhe :D


did you buy all those at 4.1... nice job!!!

LOL I am taking a risk I know...

But anyhow, I bought 700 at 4.1 and 500 at 4.8 and those are the ones I sold today.

I still have shares from much higher up as I have been chasing this since $6 HNU. Buying on the way down. But today helped offset the cost of my $5.x shares. But I'm still hanging on to them. If NG pops up to $4.50 or something silly, I'll think about bailing. Meanwhile, I'll not buy back in to HNU unless it drops to $4.4x range or lower. Hahahha...

[max_boost]

Damn, markets bounced back and closed +230.9 at 11,018.1

Tomorrow will be interesting.....

[Super_Geo]

I think tomorrow will be a pull-back day across the board for commodities. My guesses:

NG down.
Gold down.
Oil... down slightly.
USD up.

I'm in HND and HGD. Going to watch the markets at 7:30 to see if I need to find quick exits on both if it looks like commodities are going to make more gains.

I'm guessing people will want to start a sell-off to lock in profits on NG.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
I think tomorrow will be a pull-back day across the board for commodities. My guesses:

NG down.
Gold down.
Oil... down slightly.
USD up.

I'm in HND and HGD. Going to watch the markets at 7:30 to see if I need to find quick exits on both if it looks like commodities are going to make more gains.

I'm guessing people will want to start a sell-off to lock in profits on NG.

The NYMEX is open earlier than that.

So you might want to check commodities prices there before you wait for the equities markets to open.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Damn, markets bounced back and closed +230.9 at 11,018.1

Tomorrow will be interesting.....

did you get stopped out??

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


LOL I am taking a risk I know...

But anyhow, I bought 700 at 4.1 and 500 at 4.8 and those are the ones I sold today.

I still have shares from much higher up as I have been chasing this since $6 HNU. Buying on the way down. But today helped offset the cost of my $5.x shares. But I'm still hanging on to them. If NG pops up to $4.50 or something silly, I'll think about bailing. Meanwhile, I'll not buy back in to HNU unless it drops to $4.4x range or lower. Hahahha...

ahh i seee, good job, i'm holding the ones i got in the mid an upper 5's too, i hope we get to see 4.3 NG at least, should be able to get out of HNU then. i'll be looking to back back in the mid 4's too....

i see NG close pretty high today, at 4$ .....

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Dinan


did you get stopped out??

I'm praying for a pull back so I can get back in! I hate buying back in at a higher price!

[KappaSigma]

Anyone else thinking of buying some VMS in the low 20s and sitting on them?

[civic_rida]

Would you buy hbd or hgd?

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by max_boost


I'm praying for a pull back so I can get back in! I hate buying back in at a higher price!

I'm pretty sure we will get a pull back, just don't know when or how much it will be. I'm looking to get into XIU too, but definitely need a pullback before I'll go in. We've been going up really fast lately.

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by sputnik


The NYMEX is open earlier than that.

So you might want to check commodities prices there before you wait for the equities markets to open.

Yeah I usually come on at 7:15, check NG/Oil on CME and Gold on Bloomberg, then check this thread to see if SR has posted.

Hoping these prices hold up over night and start pulling back in the AM, otherwise I'm left pretty exposed with HND possibly jumping below my stop if NG opens up for another run...

Gold: 964.5, -3.00
NG: 3.949, -0.052

[SilverRex]

ok so yesterday im starting to find most sectors getting exhusted, and over night trading price did start to rise when I write this but no matter my expecation is simple, I expect a drop coming soon, but at the same time, we could potentially have a bit of a higher push before the fall. either way days from now we should see a more significant drop across most sectors.

starting with oil, as I suggested yesterday's post I Expect oil to consolidate between 70-72 and form some sort of triangle pattern, and so it did, normally these triangle pattern is in the final leg of wave 4 of a 5 wave structured pattern. and technically suppose to break out on the upside but if it does break above 72, expect about a 2 dollar more target, of course triangles can fail if it breaks below it.

while it is always possible a false breakout on either side can occur, especially the down side where it may only be trying to form a larger triangle rather than what it appears on the chart now. but lets not get too confusing. just going to treat the break out side as the direction that it will be headed this morning, then the only thing is, upside should be limited or we should be near a top pretty soon within days if not today.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080509.jpg

and for gold. while weeks ago I provided that 957 was a good place to short and so it did offering some great opportunities, but after awhile, it no longer provided the resistance we need and at this moment it has became support. so looking at the bigger picture, this will give us a better view of what gold is doing. notice there is a down trend line coming down to about 975. I would consider the the current level between 960-975 to be extremely good shorting opportunity. because once gold tops out near term, it's going to roll over and I will expect it to roll over hard eventually taking out that up purple trendline. perhaps gold is simply wanting to retest the previous trend line that it broke. Anyways I continue to expect some big weakness ahead for gold once the recent market rally stalls.

Dont forget gold is a leading indicator in the market. before the collasp in sep last year, gold had already started a major sell off in July. Also before the stock market rebounded in feb. Gold was the first to rebound significantly in Dec 2 months prior. So treat any significant beat down in gold as a coming warning for equities.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold080509.jpg

Not much exicted chart wise on the dollar so I will post the euro instead just because they are so closely related. both really move inversely to each other.

So far euro putted in a near double bottom at around 4368, with the 50EMA supporting it, and so the market should begin a sell off if this level is broken to the down side. But until it does, do not rule out the market with one more drive higher, but it is completely normal if it does not either. I have been expecting the market especially DOW to begin a larger decline over the past few weeks. Who knows maybe it will take the payroll and unemployment numbers at the end of the week to stir things up. but technically we are due for a fall and we are certainly near a short term top if not at one.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro080509.jpg

[SilverRex]

oh dont forget roll over for oil is around the corner, we will be trading nearly 2 dollars higher in few more days. I think it will begin on the 7th with 25% next month and 75% current month

[Dinan]

what are you buying today SR? if anything??

[cosmok]

This weak USD is messing up my bear gold trades

edit: and now it takes off :burnout:

[davidI]

I'm tempted to grab some HND at $9.44. Agh...trying to resist!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
I'm tempted to grab some HND at $9.44. Agh...trying to resist!

me too, but NG closed todays back to back over 4$, haven't seen that in a while, we could see this run another 20-30 cents i think... i hope, so then i can take some more of my shares out and buy some HND :D

[Vanish3d]

i just got stopped at HOU 9.2... rode it from 7.5 so I guess i should'nt complain too much.

[Vanish3d]

Im gonna try to get into either HND or HOD at the day's lows.
I dont know which is safer tho. Oil is a bit more stable and predictable. NG is crazy which could mean more profit. I just want a quick 10% profit

[Rat Fink]

.

[Super_Geo]

Holy shit NG just ran up... on what though? I got stopped out earlier at 9.50, thinking of getting back into HND now that NG ran up 7c.

The Dow's down, oil's down, NG shoots up?

[Dinan]

^^ yeah NG is crazy like that, like SR said before, it's know for NG to be GREEn while everything else is RED!

[SilverRex]

hmmm euro after breaking below the double bottom has since rised back above it, oil similarily broken down from its triangle but yet made a pretty good recovery.

While my expectation is down for most sectors, I have to suggest that if you guys are shorting make sure you have stops above yesterday's high, simply because if price does make an advance taking yesterday's high, it will advance further.

A case can be made that oil is yet in another ABC correction with 69.70s being the C, doesnt this look familar when oil first bounced around bwteen 67 and sharply dropped to 65 but quickly made a reverse.

anyhow a few indictors are still bearish, SAR is on top which is also bearish, we will monitor this closely. if SAR flips over to the down side again which suggest positive momentum then I may start to entertain the idea the this reverse may be for real. other wise im still sticking to the short side unless what I mention above becomes a reality.

edit: bought some HOD 10.99 with 3% stop which should cover if oil breaks above 72. see where this goes

[Dinan]

where is your exit price? 69 oil?