Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pwlCFGxV2M0/Snmjxo8ZFrI/AAAAAAAADw4/hDqu8CmMR54/s1600-h/Natural+Gas+8-5-09.jpg

[yoda124]

bot in cisco for the earnings release after close.John Chambers will not want to dissapoint the market this time.

[Vanish3d]

what a boring day... nothing is happening:zzz:

[Dinan]

^^^ get some HOD ??:devil:

[Z_Fan]

I bought some HOD yesterday at $10.81 and $10.83.

Still hanging on to my HNU.

When I sold my HGU I sould have bought HGD immediately. But decided to wait. LOL. Sold HGU yesterday near high...

[Vanish3d]

got HOD at 11

[Red@8]

Z_Fan I still got 2k HNU left as well. Still holding. On the fence about exiting though.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Red@8
Z_Fan I still got 2k HNU left as well. Still holding. On the fence about exiting though.

same here but i'm in the RED!! if your green i would exit...

[Z_Fan]

Based on the prices the other day of Oil and Natural Gas, and the historical price ratio of 11:1, either OIL should be $43 or NG should be $6.47.

Which is why I think short OIL and long NG makes sense. Because the ratio is currently 18:1 not 11:1. Which is WAY out of line. Something is messed up...

[davidI]

Z_Fan, where'd you get the historical price ratio figure of 11:1? I've never heard that before - I'm not doubting you, just curious where you got it!

On an energy equivalent basis, it's 6:1, which is how reserves have always been reported.

The thing with gas in North America now is that there has been an eruption of supply (shale gas, CBM etc.), and very little change in demand.

[SilverRex]

^ I think I posted something bout NG and oil's ratio in the LT area a month or two ago

[Vanish3d]

looks like were close to breaking yesterday's highs for oil....
just when i bought HOD lol

[SilverRex]

^ yup either it has to turn around now or breaking 72 = further upside.

[Dinan]

^^ it SHOULD be heading back down, very soon!


nothing really wants to head back down!

[Vanish3d]

down down down bitch down! :whipped: :guns: haha

SR, is your stop at around 10.67 for HOD?

[SilverRex]

^ as soon as I see 10.6x i will be out

[davidI]

Look at the volume on HNU today!! Over 18 million compared to 5 million for HOU.

[spacerz]

Woot My AIG in the NYSE just jumped 8.55 over NIGHT! :D party time. What do you guys think!? should i sell off or hold it!?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^ as soon as I see 10.6x i will be out


getting back into HOU?

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by spacerz
Woot My AIG in the NYSE just jumped 8.55 over NIGHT! :D party time. What do you guys think!? should i sell off or hold it!?

sell half hold half (with stop loss) for another pop

[SilverRex]

71.93 getting closed.

looks like it wants to breakout boys.

breaking yesterday's high will for sure push oil higher at least to about near 74 again. since by doing this not only does this take out the triangle breakdown this morning but it has sucessfully corrected to another ABC correction which I most fear. Remember corrections are usually in 3 waves, while the main trend offers 5. That was why I was so certain when oil took out 68 last week it was ready to move alot higher because of this.

if oil does take me out over 72, I'll wait a few dollars high and short again.

edit: thats it, im taking my loss on HOD, flipping over to HOU for 74-75 oil, feeling the ABC correction completion now resumption of upside is the pattern here

[Vanish3d]

if were expecting it to go to 74 then back, then is it a bad idea to just keep your position of HOD ?

[Dinan]

well it's getting real CLOSE!!! got up to 72.02 :nut:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
if were expecting it to go to 74 then back, then is it a bad idea to just keep your position of HOD ?

you have a pt but im just in for a quick flip

[997TT]

SR are you still short on gold & silver?

[SilverRex]

^ yup, im shorting silver and just going to leave it there

[Dinan]

^^ shorting it with HZD?

did you get stopped out of HOD/?

[SilverRex]

^ I exited HOD, just sticking to my own mental stop that if oil breaks 72 im out, and no im not shorting silver with HZD, but rather spot silver on the forex exchange

every chart has crossed over STOCH, clearly we have momentum heading a bit higher. This could very well be the last push for the short term top

[Z_Fan]

I got in HOD at low $10.80's so my tolerance is a little more than $10.69.

I'll hang on it it until it dips below $9.80 - if it goes that low.

[Dinan]

looks like the markets are going to turn green, yet AGAIN!

[Vanish3d]

its having a hard time getting over 72. I just took out my stop order. Ima ride this till im in the green.

[civic_rida]

Bought some penny stocks hoping to hit it big :dunno:

[bigbadboss101]

Got some FAS this morning and sold it for a $3.85/share gain. However it was in my Canadian account and the gain was offset by the currency exchange. Next time will put it in the US margin account.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Bought some penny stocks hoping to hit it big :dunno:

which ones?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Bought some penny stocks hoping to hit it big :dunno:

any good ones?

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Got some FAS this morning and sold it for a $3.85/share gain. However it was in my Canadian account and the gain was offset by the currency exchange. Next time will put it in the US margin account.

Dropped $1/share in the 5 minutes since I first posted.

[Super_Geo]

What's up with this ridiculous rally in the financial sector??

[bilal.h1]

AIG caused this rally, its a last breath rally before a major pull back.
most sectors rallied so far.

i am shorting EUR/USD
:whocares:

[skandalouz_08]

Is it too late to jump into HOU in the morning? If so does that mean hop on the HOD train?

[SilverRex]

ok so yesterday while at one pt I thought oil had broken down from a triangle pattern to the down side, but since price quickly reversed course I was skeptical of its break and and that if price was to break its prior day high, it would suggest we have a false break down and price has higher to go. so over night (asia) market has lifted oil to a bit of a breakout but has since came back down below 72, now which appears to be retesting the break out resistance.

to me pureply based on this triangle breakout to the upside is a usually bullish, couple the fact that we had a false break out, in fact if you use LINE chart instead of candle you will notice oil has never even broken out of its triangle pattern until this morning. Therefore unless oil can break below the bottom red up trend line somewhere around 71.2, expect further advance for oil. I would say 73-75 area would be the next likely target.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080609.jpg

now for gold, after gold broke above 957, while I expect 965-971 will be a fantastic short opportunity. while it tried to break below 957 but failed on both attampt and now it had put in a double bottom what appears to be. Stoch and Macd both cross over for upside, so as of this moment, we have a short term bullish sentiment for gold as well. But I Expect the upside will be limited as it approaches 971-975. I feel there will be some very big sell off area once it hits. But if gold is unable to make new highs, expect more side way movements unless price can close below 957 to dictate new trend.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold080609.jpg

now as I have been expecting for quite some time. is the top in or do we have one final push higher? certainly DOW appears ready to do just that so is oil and gold, but for the 1st time in a while euro is actually not moving higher as it should, in fact while oil and gold made some advances eariler, euro actually came down near its bottom of the trend channel. It is obvious we have a side way zig zag correction happening here and the break out on either side would tell you which way the dollar will be headed. But here is the thing euro is near the bottom of this channel. So either it will break down hard and suddenly pull oil and gold down and begin a real correction including equities. Or, euro would reverse here and the upside back to the upper channel will no doubt put alot more buying pressure back on the table for all sectors. And since oil and gold right now technically looks alittle bullish at least for the start of the morning. I expect the 2nd scenario.

So unless all things line up like oil below 71, euro below 4350, gold below 957. then I would be convince our larger correction has started. until that happens. time to hold onto HOU a tad longer. and I'll be looking for a better short entry for gold/silver.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro080609.jpg

[Dinan]

well oil is down 50 cents, for how long? till 9.30 lol then shoots right up :nut: lol

SR, you looking to short gold with HGD at about 971 GOLD ?

[SilverRex]

so far double rejection at 971 gold. talk about an obvious short. remember last week I said because gold broke 957, next level is 971? welp we certainly hit that right on. I expect anything 970+ will be a good short

[Dinan]

you looking at the spot price of gold, right?

[DJ_NAV]

anyone buying or playing with AIG? was up 60+% yesterday.. today up 28% already!

[davidI]

What are people's thoughts on CPG?

[Dinan]

yeah? whats up[ with AIG ?? :eek:

[DJ_NAV]

AIG quarterly report out tmw i believe. the volume is up 4x now, crazy volatile, changing 10-15 cents every second.

[SilverRex]

welp at least gold is getting rejected at 971, cant even go any higher. , euro is on the verge of breaking down below the channel. So perhaps we have to take this as scenario one. break down on euro will pull all sectors down with it.

while higher oil prices can still be achieved. the market just isnt ready at this point in time I'm exiting HOU and sit on the side line and see how far this correction goes.

if anything tomorrow's payroll/unemployment could be the catalyst we need for a major pull back

[Dinan]

you not buying HOD??HGD?

[SilverRex]

other than shorting gold/silver Im going to wait until the data is released tomorrow to decide.

right now all market is turning bearish so if you want to bet, bet downwards :)

[Red@8]

I took a small position in HGD @ $6.33

[DJ_NAV]

^same.

[Dinan]

did you short GOLD with HGD?


is it too late now...

[skandalouz_08]

seems late, as I was putting together my order it just started jumping...not high, but I don't know how much more upside it will have.

[skandalouz_08]

Eff it, took a chance and got in HGD at $6.49 with tight stops.

Edit: It then dropped to $6.41 5 seconds later

[bigbadboss101]

Damn HND went for 9.8 to 10.3 in seconds.

[davidI]

Yep made some good money on HND. Wish I'd bought some more!!! I just need to time an exit now...

[Dinan]

man, i got stopped out of HOD, i don't think i'll buy back though....

what to buy now?

[Super_Geo]

[cidley69]

What ETF do you use to short gold?

[Dinan]

With an intraday top in place at 4.162, intraday outlook in natural gas remains neutral for the moment. While another rise cannot be ruled out as long as 3.603 minor support holds, note that since the current rise from 3.519 is treated as part of consolidation that started at 3.155, upside should be limited by 4.387/575 resistance zone and bring reversal. Break of 3.603 will in turn indicate that rebound from 3.519 has completed and flip bias back to the downside for 3.155/225 support zone.


i think this is why NG jumped that much on monday....

Natural gas continues to trade above 4 although the full storage problem persists. The shutdown of a pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico triggered worries about supply disruptions. The US Energy Department may report gas supply increased by +62 bcf to 3085 bcf in the week ended July 31.


so with 66bcf last week, NG dropped like a rock! but it's moving back up, maybe i'll pick up some:dunno:

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by cidley69
What ETF do you use to short gold?

HGD

[davidI]

I on HND on Tuesday at $9.44, out today at $10.27. Boo-ya. Just wish I'd bought more shares.

[guessboi]

sold HNU with a ~20% gain yesterday. I am tempting to get back to HNU with a 1000 shares.

[cosmok]

Gold's not moving much

[Vanish3d]

^ neither is oil. just hovering.

[Hoagie]

any thoughts on crq?

[Dinan]

damn, it's really hard to be a short these days, the markets just don't want to go down!!


ahhhh, NG facked me up again, i thought it would get in the 4.20's so i can take out some shares, but nooooo, it couldn't go another 20 cents more

:facepalm:


watch next time it gets near i'll take a loss and get out and then it will go and break out:facepalm:

[SilverRex]

we probablly wont see any significant moves until the US data release tomorrow morning. So until then price is most likely continue to find difficulties moving in either direction.

[Super_Geo]

WTF is NG doing....

I just don't know where to get in. Drops almost 30c in an hour down to 3.74... $4.70 HNU is looking pretty attractive.

Didn't pull the trigger at 4.80, might have to at 4.70...

[SilverRex]

^

welp NG at 3.91 was an important support. going thru that is not good

[davidI]

Originally posted by davidI
I on HND on Tuesday at $9.44, out today at $10.27. Boo-ya. Just wish I'd bought more shares.

Damn, got out too early! Oh well, hope it goes all the way down to $3 so I can look at HNU & GAS again haha.

[Super_Geo]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

welp NG at 3.91 was an important support. going thru that is not good

Where is the next lower support for NG?

[Dinan]

3.70 from oil and gold web site...

and the 20 moving everage is ast 3.76 so now SHOULD be an okay buy...

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
we probablly wont see any significant moves until the US data release tomorrow morning. So until then price is most likely continue to find difficulties moving in either direction.

do you know what time this release will happen?

[SilverRex]

6:30 am

[skandalouz_08]

Just got out of HND at $10.50, bought at $9.35. Time for a break.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
3.70 from oil and gold web site...

and the 20 moving everage is ast 3.76 so now SHOULD be an okay buy...

well Stoch is over sold for NG, and we are long ways before NG becomes bullish. buying low 3s and selling in the 4s seems to be working as long as I can remember posting about it, now that price is right in the middle, it can very easily go in both directions. I would caution sticking on the side line until either NG heads lower for a buy or head back above 4 for a short.

update. most chart looks bearish right now for oil,gold, euro

I expect euro to at least make another move lower closer to 4300 hopefully this will bring oil down to the 69s and gold to 957 before a more likely bounce occurs, of course tomorrow will be a big day. bad news, we could suddenly see a hard drop in all sectors for a week or two.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


well Stoch is over sold for NG, and we are long ways before NG becomes bullish. buying low 3s and selling in the 4s seems to be working as long as I can remember posting about it, now that price is right in the middle, it can very easily go in both directions. I would caution sticking on the side line until either NG heads lower for a buy or head back above 4 for a short.

update. most chart looks bearish right now for oil,gold, euro

I expect euro to at least make another move lower closer to 4300 hopefully this will bring oil down to the 69s and gold to 957 before a more likely bounce occurs, of course tomorrow will be a big day. bad news, we could suddenly see a hard drop in all sectors for a week or two.

yeah, but like you say, when you think you have figured out a trend watch it get changed on you.. who knows. it needs to get over 4.57 NG to become bullish, and it hasn't gotten near it, so i guess shorting above 4$ is good....

i bought 500 shares at 4.66, see how it plays out,

[Vanish3d]

fk what a boring day for oil. I really shoulda gotten HND insted of HOD yesterday.

I flipped a coin between the two and it landed on Head (HOD).... stupid coin

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex

update. most chart looks bearish right now for oil,gold, euro

I expect euro to at least make another move lower closer to 4300 hopefully this will bring oil down to the 69s and gold to 957 before a more likely bounce occurs, of course tomorrow will be a big day. bad news, we could suddenly see a hard drop in all sectors for a week or two.
You figure gold will head back towards 971?

[Z_Fan]

I was watching HNU this morning ... was going to sell at open and should have. But didn't.

I also didn't have a stop loss set.

But as it was going down, at about $5.23 I decided it was better off to sell. So I sold all my position "at Market" which was $5.17 by the time it went through moments later. LOL.

Then I went away hoping I made the right choice.

I just bought back half of my position at $4.73.

[Dinan]

^^^^ smart move! :thumbsup:

i almost did at 5.50, ahhhhhhh:facepalm:

[Z_Fan]

Wish I would have sold it at $5.35 this morning as there was a lot of opportunity, but it just didn't look WEAK to me until it was suddently low $5.20 $5.19 etc.

Was a lucky guess that it was gonna tank. I had that gut feeling and acted on it - usually I get the tingly feeling and do nothing. LOL!

[SilverRex]

silver is on the cust of a break down. :D

[Dinan]

what was your purchase price?

yeah i had a feeling too, with the inventory, but didn't act on it,:thumbsdow


some guy on BNN said GOLD is going to 1000 by the end of the month

[guessboi]

I am on the sideline today to get in either HOD or HGU.

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex
silver is on the cust of a break down. :D

I'm onboard SR... 3k shares of HZD (bought 2 days ago at $17.90)
Tank silver tank

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


I'm onboard SR... 3k shares of HZD (bought 2 days ago at $17.90)
Tank silver tank

hahahha, thats half the average volume .... the bid and ask are so far off,, i hate those low volume stocks

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT


I'm onboard SR... 3k shares of HZD (bought 2 days ago at $17.90)
Tank silver tank

your nuts, I wish I had that much money to throw around. Have you ever thought of splitting that order into 3? you could have bought 1000 share at 17.90, and if it dipped lower you add another position. The only draw back is yes you will make less but you will also loose less over all and have yourself a chance to cost average down. You will also get the flexibility that if price favors you you can unwind your lower position or even get to break even without having to wait for price to hit your first entry.

after all its the strategy that makes trading work, not the jackpot trade. because we can never hit the right trade every time and so the emphasis is on how to reduce risk and loss :)

but then again you probablly knew all of this and your just itching to buy a few more 3k share positions. :)

[Vanish3d]

seriously, where do you guys get your money???
Im deffinately in the wrong profession.

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex


The only draw back is yes you will make less but you will also loose less over all

Dawg, the only thing that i read is "you will make less"

haha ... no but seriously I can take multiple positions and could've bought more but typically I just take an initial position that i'm happy with and ride that out. I hear what your saying but i hate averaging down...i would rather just wait it out or get stopped out if i feel i'm going to lose more by holding.

i'm $90k deep on gold/silver bear ... haha.

Boooyeeeahhh .... all aboard the SR Train!!!

[Vanish3d]

oh shit... oil over 72....

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


Dawg, the only thing that i read is "you will make less"

haha ... no but seriously I can take multiple positions and could've bought more but typically I just take an initial position that i'm happy with and ride that out. I hear what your saying but i hate averaging down...i would rather just wait it out or get stopped out if i feel i'm going to lose more by holding.

i'm $90k deep on gold/silver bear ... haha.

Boooyeeeahhh .... all aboard the SR Train!!!

:eek:

goodluck guy!!!

did you buy HGD? or the other bear ETF??


hurricane season is around September, so it's kinda hard to be a bear on oil and nat gas....

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


your nuts, I wish I had that much money to throw around. Have you ever thought of splitting that order into 3? you could have bought 1000 share at 17.90, and if it dipped lower you add another position. The only draw back is yes you will make less but you will also loose less over all and have yourself a chance to cost average down. You will also get the flexibility that if price favors you you can unwind your lower position or even get to break even without having to wait for price to hit your first entry.

after all its the strategy that makes trading work, not the jackpot trade. because we can never hit the right trade every time and so the emphasis is on how to reduce risk and loss :)

but then again you probablly knew all of this and your just itching to buy a few more 3k share positions. :)

thats what i do, i don't make that much but don't lose much, i'm okay with that :thumbsup:


lucky i got out of HOD this morning...

thinking about HGD.....i just don't like going against the force lol

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


:eek:

goodluck guy!!!

did you buy HGD? or the other bear ETF??


hurricane season is around September, so it's kinda hard to be a bear on oil and nat gas....

i wont rule out oil may still have more legs but I cant see the market keep moving up without a larger pull back.

still expect oil to come down as we roll over to next months contract any more upside in oil I view is of a divergence.

still expecting a pull back in the dow to a more comfortable level before making one more push and as a result I expect oil to come down first before heading higher. and as for gold/silver they are quite near the top as long as gold isnt ready to break 1000 on this run, I see more down side coming and any up move is viewed as a shorting opportunity.

update: just got another sell signal on the DOW, hopefully this is the sell off we've all been waiting for

[Dinan]

gold is under 957, is this the signal that the market will head down?

there goes oil back down! wow, what a wild ride!

[SilverRex]

looking at the DOW daily chart, a pull back further down till it finds a bottom in the 88-90k would be perfect, because now that STOCH is so overbought, when DOW makes a final run once it finishes its correction, will make a move above 9400 forcing a to be made negative divergence, then the real fun begins this winter, we are probablly a month and a half away from the peak, I dont think the market is done rallying but am expecting this pull back for the longest time.

now lets hope tomorrows number is bad and forcing a larger sell off.

update. what do you know, silver indeed did break down from that multiday neck line, and just tanked.

[Dinan]

so the fun begins mid september? i guess you'll be shorting around that time?/


how low do you think oil will get, to jump in HOU?