Official Short-term Investments Thread

[cosmok]

Anyone else been having issues with RBC online this week?

[Vanish3d]

what kinda issues?
mine runs fine, but has a message about errors in mutual funds pricing.

[Dinan]

what you guys think about sunlife financial??

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
what kinda issues?
mine runs fine, but has a message about errors in mutual funds pricing.
Blanked mutual funds yesterday and today only every other trade seems to be going through. A bunch are being rejected then magically with the same settings it will go through.

[Meback]

bought myself 22,700 USD, anticipating CAD to drop down to 0.72-0.75 in March 2010. Come on and show me a profit of 3,500.

[997TT]

Real tempted to buy HNU at close...seems past month everytime one side has a 10%+ day the other side bounces in the morning.

Looking at a 1 month chart of HNU, every dip is followed by a bounce back. Fk, with my luck tommorrow HND will run wild and my historical theory will be just that... lol

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Meback
bought myself 22,700 USD, anticipating CAD to drop down to 0.72-0.75 in March 2010. Come on and show me a profit of 3,500.

good move, I see the CAD is about topped out lately against the US dollar and should make a very decent rise in the months ahead

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


good move, I see the CAD is about topped out lately against the US dollar and should make a very decent rise in the months ahead

hope so, i got some US $ that i use for the US stocks but i haven't been buying anything lately...


what US stocks you guys buying?


i had LVS, sold that, and it went to the moon after lol

i had OCNF but i sold that just before earnings the other day, lucky, it dropped big time today...

i have a small position of CTIC, kinda high, 1.70, looking to get out, or i might buy a bit if it dips in the 20's or 30's ....

[max_boost]

Busy day so couldn't post. Glad to see things pull back though. I would love to see it drop another 200pts tomorrow. Buy on stop is the plan.

[SilverRex]

ok so today gold closed the chart with a doji or price indecision. only confirms we are very near a top for gold.

looking back at the last few tops that included a rejection hammer, gold tends to begin a decline after wards.

now the doji may not be the exact hammer, none the less in an uptrend, price indecision or doji more often than not is a signal for trend reversal. the only confirmation could be waiting for SAR to flip bearishly to the top side and or STOCH comes out of overbought.

even if gold is to make another run at 971 or a bit higher. we have a down trend line coming down that should be viewed as a massive resistance.

So take gold at current level or any spikes or rally as an extreme shorting opportunity.

the sky is the limit as to where gold will land, at least we can worry about it when that time comes.

good luck

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldtoday-2.jpg

[SilverRex]

and silver is even more bearish, looking good 997 hold on tight
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silvertoday.jpg

[Dinan]

^^ good stuff!


looking to short tomorrow.... it better not get above 1000 after lol

[SilverRex]

welp finally its friday, ready to wrap up the week. Today's US payroll and unemployment releasing at 6:30am should be a good one meaning that should move the market.

not much really happened with oil, at first thinking it would breakout but couldnt move higher, thinking it would collasp it too just move sideways between 70-72 pretty much the whole week, I guess we got our consolidation longer than we expected.

just based on the trend lines megaphone pattern here, oil, would most likely be contained between 69-72.50 abouts.

I am going to go on a guess that today's report will be not so good, but of ots gppd tjem expect a pop first then drop, I think the market is so waiting for a pull back. So any upside in oil or even gold should be limited.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080709.jpg

and gold, not thing new, if you follow the post I had last night you will see that gold/silver is at a very good level to be shorted. again any upside is probablly just a counter trend rally, we should see a change in direction soon. But keep in mind, no market analysis is 100% perfect. therefore anything could change, world event could alter. and so for gold I suggest dont leave it without stop. having a stop higher than the previous high at 991 will be a good way to exit shall the market somehow defy our analysis, then again I do not expect gold to come near that level anyways.

[Dinan]

Going to try and sell hnu at the open! It doesn't seem to want to move!

wow, oil and NG are up... what happened?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
Going to try and sell hnu at the open! It doesn't seem to want to move!

wow, oil and NG are up... what happened?

both unemployment and payroll is good.

but no matter I think the recent rally has already factored into the market, you will get a pop then alot of profit taking and sell off, still expecting a pull back

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


both unemployment and payroll is good.

but no matter I think the recent rally has already factored into the market, you will get a pop then alot of profit taking and sell off, still expecting a pull back

i thought it was out at 9:30??

where would you think is a good point to take profit on NG?? i got in at 4.66 yesterday.... small amount, 500 shares... friday night money :D

[Dinan]

why is the chart of the US dollar on netdania stuck on august 5th ??

[SilverRex]

^

not sure from time to time it just freezes for a few days.

[SilverRex]

gold 971 still looks like a fantastic top right now

[Dinan]

well i got stopped out of HNU, i know i would, should have just sold it in the 80's .....

[bigbadboss101]

^^

Yeah it droped 0.11 in the 2 minutes that I was checking some other site:dunno:

[Dinan]

yeah and now it's above my stop,,,, ahhhhh,

[bigbadboss101]

Made some $ on AIG, $3.5/share.

Anyone buying gold, oil, ng bull stocks today?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I heard Connacher Oil & Gas might be in for some good news in the next month or so; they are sitting around 90 cents right now... a bargain for a solid 3$ stock IMO.

TSX:CLL

what kinda news? where you hear this?

[Rat Fink]

.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Dinan


what kinda news? where you hear this?
That oil prices are higher now and they can use some of the well pairs they didn't drill correctly :rofl:

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Dinan]

this is odd, the US is up and the equities are up too, while the euro is dropping

[SilverRex]

^ yup there fore something has to give, other equities are just waiting to fall big or euro might rebound if it finds a bottom.

but since im expecting a drop, I will guess its the 1st scenario

DOW is approaching a very very significant first fibo retracement level at 9422.

it took the DOW nearly 6 months to retrace back to this 38% level. so far this correction is playing out nicely. an ABC wave correction usually retraces back to its fibo levels.

I expect turn around is just around the corner

I think the general public is all oil up on this mornings report so alot of buying has been offsetting the strength of the US dollar. once people realize technically the recent rally is a hoax, the sell off will be sharp

[Dinan]

oil is down too, i'm surprised that it's not up with the market....

and you would think that gold would rally with the market, but it's not the case, i think this is a divergence like you said SR, well what do i know, i just started trading this year :dunno:

i'm staying out today....

[cosmok]

^ The USD index and gold are more or less the exact inverse of one another right now

[SilverRex]

^

welp im short oil, silver as of yesterday. and I shorted some more when silver shot up to 14.80

oil short I will most likely keep it short term, but since we are in the middle of roll over, I think roll over benefits hod more than we realize.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
^ The USD index and gold are more or less the exact inverse of one another right now

yes thats true, but, when USD is up the market is down and so is gold, and when the USD is down usually the market is up along with oil and gold....

[SilverRex]

waiting for gold to close below 957 on the 1 hour chart, then we are laughing even better if it can close below 955.8 (200 EMA)

euro still dropping lower, dow at 9397, let see how long before DOW finally runs out of gas

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

welp im short oil, silver as of yesterday. and I shorted some more when silver shot up to 14.80

oil short I will most likely keep it short term, but since we are in the middle of roll over, I think roll over benefits hod more than we realize.

when did you short oil?

kinda late i guess to get back in....

[SilverRex]

DOW at 9404.91, so exciting...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


when did you short oil?

kinda late i guess to get back in....

i shorted at around oil current levels about 71.5 oil

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
waiting for gold to close below 957 on the 1 hour chart, then we are laughing even better if it can close below 955.8 (200 EMA)

euro still dropping lower, dow at 9397, let see how long before DOW finally runs out of gas

gold spot right?

closed at 955 right?

[bigbadboss101]

Look at FAS go!

[SilverRex]

DOW at 9408.77 only 13 more pts to go

update: dam its 9414.21 only 8 more pts

[DJ_NAV]

^ be extremely careful of 3x ETF!! In fact 2x is pretty bad ass as it is. Isn't there an 3x ETF for TSX?

[cosmok]

Good time to jump on FAZ?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
DOW at 9408.77 only 13 more pts to go

update: dam its 9414.21 only 8 more pts


you have the fibo on the high of 14200 or so and the march low?

i just did that and i get 9460 for 38% :dunno:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan



you have the fibo on the high of 14200 or so and the march low?

i just did that and i get 9460 for 38% :dunno:

I took the high of 14198 and low of 6470

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


I took the high of 14198 and low of 6470

ahhh i seee... i got it, 9424, right??



did it again, now i get 9419.70

[SilverRex]

under 11 HOD will soon look extremely good in the months ahead.

looking at the hod chart. the lowest was 10.58, and if oil is to drop in the new few months, then 10.58 is as low as it is going to get assuming 10.58 was a C, it must hold.

get ready to ride hod all the way back up

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/hodtoday.jpg

[Dinan]

damn, the markets are on fire!

Dow is getting close to the 38% retracement point, but it's also getting overbought!

could we see a end of the day sell off????

very surprised oil is down....

[cidley69]

Are there any free, real time stock tickers you can get for the desktop?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
damn, the markets are on fire!

Dow is getting close to the 38% retracement point, but it's also getting overbought!

could we see a end of the day sell off????

very surprised oil is down....

watch the last hour or half hour might get a hint as to how next week's going to look like

[Dinan]

real tempted with HOD :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil: :devil:


:dunno:


9430 for the dow:eek:


LVS is on FIRE!!!!!!


damn, never got back in:banghead:


oh boy how i hope your right SR, and we go south next month :thumbsup:

[guessboi]

I am tempting to get on HOD or HNU. SR what are your thoughts on natural gas. do you think it will go lower than what it is right now?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by guessboi
I am tempting to get on HOD or HNU. SR what are your thoughts on natural gas. do you think it will go lower than what it is right now?

not a big fan on NG as it could go either way, but if I had to play I would be looking to short

[Dinan]

lets start a sell of now

[Bisklimpkit]

Took a small position on HNU. Will pick up more if it goes down to 4.00 or lower, and sit on it until the Oct/Nov spike.

[Nova316]

In HOD @ 10.80
Wow the dow is just dropping

[997TT]

In HOD at 11.07

I'm am balls deep short. C'mon strong dollar, more inventory surpluses, profit taking ... anything for a pullback.

[SilverRex]

^

hey 997, didnt you have like 3k share of HZD.

looking at it, it appears they are extremely at low volume. I wonder will you be run into a problem where there just isnt enough buyer to take the shares off your hands even if hzd did go way up in price.

I realize this because only the bid/ask price moves but the last traded price stalls

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

hey 997, didnt you have like 3k share of HZD.

looking at it, it appears they are extremely at low volume. I wonder will you be run into a problem where there just isnt enough buyer to take the shares off your hands even if hzd did go way up in price.

I realize this because only the bid/ask price moves but the last traded price stalls

thats what i thought, too but it's an ETF tho so you get sell them at anytime, no?

wow, no volume today, maybe we should all buy :D

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

hey 997, didnt you have like 3k share of HZD.

looking at it, it appears they are extremely at low volume. I wonder will you be run into a problem where there just isnt enough buyer to take the shares off your hands even if hzd did go way up in price.

I realize this because only the bid/ask price moves but the last traded price stalls

Ya, i thought about that but back to Max's post where he says the order will fill if im at the bid I think i should be okay.

Still holding the 3k ... i'll worry about that problem when HZD is back in the 20's. :thumbsup:

[djayz]

Originally posted by Dinan


thats what i thought, too but it's an ETF tho so you get sell them at anytime, no?

wow, no volume today, maybe we should all buy :D



Originally posted by 997TT


Ya, i thought about that but back to Max's post where he says the order will fill if im at the bid I think i should be okay.

Still holding the 3k ... i'll worry about that problem when HZD is back in the 20's. :thumbsup:

Who's going to buy the shares off of you if there's no volume?

Also isn't it the market that ultimately decides the price of the etf, meaning if there is no volume no price movements happen.

[Bisklimpkit]

Hey SR - what type of charting program/site do you use? I'd like to be able to do some of my own charting but haven't managed to find much that I like.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by djayz





Who's going to buy the shares off of you if there's no volume?

Also isn't it the market that ultimately decides the price of the etf, meaning if there is no volume no price movements happen.

it tracks SILVER, so even if there is no volume the prices changes accordingly .... no one needs to buy for you to sell, when it comes to ETF's.....

thats my understanding....

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Dinan


it tracks SILVER, so even if there is no volume the prices changes accordingly .... no one needs to buy for you to sell, when it comes to ETF's.....

thats my understanding....

Yep. You buy/sell shares back to the company i.e ishares, claymore, horizons etc.

If 997TT wants to unload his HZD right now, he could. The volumes are low probably because not many people in this country follow silver yet.

[997TT]

Originally posted by max_boost


Yep. You buy/sell shares back to the company i.e ishares, claymore, horizons etc.

If 997TT wants to unload his HZD right now, he could. The volumes are low probably because not many people in this country follow silver yet.

ya, this isn't some penny stock on the pinks/otc .... when i wanted 3k shares at the ask, my order filled immediately.

I'm going to assume the same when i go to sell. Say i want to sell at $20.00 ... there's no way HZD can have a 20.15 x 20.20 bid/ask spread and not fill my order. They would lose all creditbility...

[djayz]

So who decides the price at what you sell? Also looking back at all the days when there was 0 volume on that particular etf, the price did NOT change even if silver did...Am I missing something?

[max_boost]

The price will follow the underlying commodity it's tracking. The price should change. Even if it's a zero volume day, once an order is made, the buy/sell price should reflect the price of the commodity at that time. If NOT, shit is going down. lol

[Rat Fink]

.

[Rat Fink]

.

[max_boost]

How do the HBP ETFs maintain liquidity?
ETFs maintain liquidity on three levels:
. They are listed on an exchange
. Market makers are present and obligated to provide a minimum amount of liquidity by providing bid/ask spreads that keep the ETFs in line with their underlying instruments.
. The ETF manager is able to create and redeem units at any time depending on the liquidity of the underlying instruments

Is that clear now? haha

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Rat Fink




You are not buying/selling the shares back to the company for whatever price you want. You are buying/selling according to the supply and demand of the shares at that given time, amongst other hands.

For HZD.

You can buy/sell shares at whatever price you want as long as the commodity you are tracking hits that price. So in essence it is based on the supply and demand of that commodity at that time which will yield a corresponding bid/ask on the ETF. When you say 'amongst other hands', that would mean the actual 'commodity traders' because it's their trading on the COMEX that would determine the actual price of HZD.

So, in this case with no/low volume, it's not necessarily another trader actually buying your sell order but the company redeeming it because there's no volume and they must maintain liquidity.

Hopefully that clears it up for those who are worried about not being able to selling their low volume ETF's.

Have a great weekend everyone. :thumbsup:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


The problem with a thinly traded company/ETF is that there may be very little bid support.....meaning if you quickly wanted out of your shares you might sell some at 1.00, some at .95, and the rest at .87 if there just isn't enough people lining up to buy it.

Alright, one more post lol

I see what Fink is trying to say here but this selling for $1.00, some at $0.95 and the rest at $0.87 example can NOT happen with these commodity tracking ETF's unless the the bid/ask on the commodity itself i.e, oil/gas/silver/gold etc. is showing the same spread and that just doesn't happen often. You go to sell a market order for HOU, you might sell some at $9.50/$9.48/$9.46 but that's because OIL MADE THE SAME MOVEMENT in its price. You won't get the 5-13% spread like Fink is talking about.

The above would happen if you were trading an 89coupe penny stock where volumes are in the 20,000's. In that case, there really is no one to assume your buy order and you are at the mercy of the best bid.

LOL

[Super_Geo]

Today's agenda:


Buy HOD at open.
Hold HGD (with stops: http://www.bloomberk.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=aYkH15yvAkSw).

[SilverRex]

ok so after a initial week of questions mark, finally as the week came to a close we got a very clear picture or what the market is doing.

I have to first bring out the US dollar index chart. Netdania data didnt give me the update I wanted until friday. but none the less here is what I think is happening.

I believe we have finally achieved a bottom in the US dollar. STOCH is coming out of oversoldm both MACD has opened up possible divergence is occuring, we have completed a wave V in this very large correction and should begin a steady rise in the next few months. It does not matter if the entire US dollar rally since last year was a 5 wave structure going alot higher or an ABC correction that will eventually make new lows. the matter of the fact is the sub wave v we have here is the turning point that it will and should climb up regardless.


As you notice we are bumped right up against a falling trend line, and I would say breaking above this would immediately confirm our situation. However I go expect a pull back. So view any pull back as simply temporary as we make room for higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar081009.jpg

now after having this in the back of your mind, this paints a clearly picture of oil, initially expected oil to complete its own wave V top higher than 73, however while the US dollar made new lows, oil did not have enough to make new highs, and there fore we may have what looks like a double top or a truncated 5th wave pattern topping out. Notice stoch is over bought and just crossed over. While I view oil is in a topping out process (possible for oil to suddenly make a few more attampts to break 73.2 I have to give the bias a bearish signal and caution that oil is about to roll over. So prepare to short oil if not already done so.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil081009.jpg

Anf finally, gold. the call of shorting at 971 was as perfect as it gets last week. While it didnt collasp the way we thought it would during euro's massive decline on friday. But none the less the way I look at it is, gold was suppose to make a plunge but I guess the uplifting DOW market just offseting the drop. but in due time Imo gold will be overcome and drop to levels that will shock the world. Remember last week I give out very bearish signal on gold/silver both in the short term post and long term post? well so far so good boys. Given that alot people are calling gold to the moon gold will and may run into some heavy support and could offer unexpected rallies. but over time I expect gold to continue to head lower making way towards 650 before the best buying opportunity will emerge

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold081009.jpg

Now DOW I keep expecting it to fall back and it didnt, but at least it made my 9400 target that I suggested many weeks back as DOW first bounced off 8100 and broke 8400. Now that we are there, I believe we finally may have seen a top for DOW. and should see a more signifcant fall back 300-500 pts imo. So expect any rally as dead cat. But caution if your shorting equities, because while the US dollar made new lows, when US dollar corrects, DOW could still be in the process of making a final wave slightly higher, but in due course we should see DOW very near the start of a large wave down to previous low if not new lows in the coming months.

[SilverRex]

anything extreme indicator that just popped up last week was the DSI index showing extreme lob sided sentiment. I think there were long the CAD lonnie like 98% which only happens once every 1 or 2 decades. and weak dollar at 3%

When everyone takes this type of one sided view I Think the market will go in the opposite direction

[Dinan]

oil and NG just poped up before the open.... good time to short i guess. :dunno:

[davidI]

I picked up HOD <$11. We'll see what happens!

[Dinan]

there is some volume on HZD, 977 did you sell some :D

[Hoagie]

Got some HOD at 10.97

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan
there is some volume on HZD, 977 did you sell some :D

Nope, wasnt me.

[mac_82]

Fannie Mae just jumped 26% and Freddie 70%.

[cosmok]

^^That's a huge jump. AVM is on the move again as well

[Dinan]

come on NG, goo down! :D

[skandalouz_08]

Got some HOD at $10.91

[Red@8]

Got out of HGD and into HOD.

[guessboi]

in at HOD 500 @ 10.90. as recommanded per SR. :D

[Dinan]

buy order for HNU at 5.32, fill baby fill,

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Dinan
buy order for HNU at 5.32, fill baby fill,

Fuck, I'll sell you ALL my shares for $5.30. ;)

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


Fuck, I'll sell you ALL my shares for $5.30. ;)

hahahahha....i meant 4.32 :D i though u sold the other day!?!


i'm hold some in the mid to high 5's :facepalm:

[Bisklimpkit]

I got a small position at 4.50, will get some more closer to the 4.0x mark if we get down to that. Kicking myself for not picking up some HND at 10.60 last week...

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Dinan


hahahahha....i meant 4.32 :D i though u sold the other day!?!


i'm hold some in the mid to high 5's :facepalm:

I bought half my shares back.

Will buy the other half as it gets near $4.00.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


I bought half my shares back.

Will buy the other half as it gets near $4.00.

what price did you get back in?

i just changed my order, got in at 4.35, i'm sure it will get to my order if i left it, but better safe then sorry, only 3 cents...only bought 500, if it dips to 3.60 NG i'll buy 500 more,\


Break of 3.603 support will confirm this case and bring retest of 3.115/225 support zone next.

since thats a good support, i'm sure the first time it tests it it would bounce back up...

[SilverRex]

Look at the US dollar index, it appears we are very near a sub wave 5 top of One completion. We should begin to see a bit of a correction in a 3 wave structure down to the prior wave 3 to 4 range. Which would line up as a retest of the broken trend line now becoming support.

Once this correction is finished, look for further upside in the dollar.

given oil is refused to break down, I suspect during this correction the market may want to retest and push a bit back up before falling.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollartoday-1.jpg

[cosmok]

^^Good time to flip to gold and oil bull or just hold out on the bear for the long term?

[SilverRex]

^ the one thing I learn is that correction's are harder to predict because it is counter trend. so the safest way is to wait for a better entry and then resume by following the main trend.

meaning, look for higher prices to short for gold and oil (if they do indeed retest near recent highs)

but going against them could be dangerous, because they could suddenly resume their prior trend. You always want to follow the main trend as it offers the most profit in any direction

[Super_Geo]

SR, would you recommend putting a stop on HGD at 6.75, so if it hits that point then maybe a better re-entry point can be found tomorrow?

Same with HOD... put a stop at 11.05 and see if there's a better re-entry point to be found tomorrow?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
SR, would you recommend putting a stop on HGD at 6.75, so if it hits that point then maybe a better re-entry point can be found tomorrow?

Same with HOD... put a stop at 11.05 and see if there's a better re-entry point to be found tomorrow?

that is a pretty tight stop imo, and since the US dollar has moved so much, we are probablly in the midst for a bit of a consolidation. And with that, oil or gold shares, they can move in either direction.

general rule of thumb would be better to use today's top or bottom as your critical resistance/support meaning if they break above or below it, expect it to offer a bit of a run further towards the side of the break out.

[Proyecto2000]

any one hearing rumours about crescent point being bought out?

[davidI]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
any one hearing rumours about crescent point being bought out?

I haven't heard any rumours....it would have to be a pretty big player to take them out....their market cap is over $5 billion right now.

I've been looking at picking them up simply for their dividend. Not sure if it will be sustainable, but they're yielding 8% right now...

[DRKM]

Another reasonably boring day...