Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

looks like we going down boys..,.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25830066316

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by davidI


I haven't heard any rumours....it would have to be a pretty big player to take them out....their market cap is over $5 billion right now.

I've been looking at picking them up simply for their dividend. Not sure if it will be sustainable, but they're yielding 8% right now...

some guys out of Sask. where saying Shell, but nothing seems "fishy" in CPG trades today. Could be just BS to drive up stock price I guess.
I really hope that something happens with OPC though, i have been holding for 2+ months now :zzz:

[yellowsnow]

AVM guys... they just got approved for financing, and their stock rose 17% today. :D

this stock has made me some killer dough in teh last 2 months

[Inzane]

Originally posted by DRKM
Another reasonably boring day...

Not if you're holding AVM.

I am. :D

[DRKM]

The usd dollar is making gains on the CAD and AUD. I am noticing a delay before it hits the majors ie the EURO.

[SilverRex]

Yes pretty boring day on monday. It could be that there werent any major news or data released. But that could all change starting this morning.

both oil and gold remains dull and my assessment remains the same. oil is in the process of topping out imo, while the US dollar has advance significantly somewhat and is currently in a bit of a small correction. that when completed will resume upward that should in turn bring oil down and gold further down. And I bet this may be the final poke the equities need to finally pop its multi week long rally.

So expect any upside as a good oppotunity to short. Watch oil at 73.2-73.35 closely, as long as this level is not broken to the upside. I feel lower oil is right around the corner.

While gold has already dropped from 971 to 943, it will too be over come and resume its downward bias once it gets over bought again. look for stoch to come out of overbought or any obvious uptrend being broken to the down side as confirmation. such as shown on the chart below. I'll have to rethink the situation if the dollar breaks below 78.70, otherwise look for more upside when correction is completed

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar081109.jpg

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Inzane


Not if you're holding AVM.

I am. :D

what price did you guys get into AVM?? is it still a good buy?

[davidI]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


some guys out of Sask. where saying Shell, but nothing seems "fishy" in CPG trades today. Could be just BS to drive up stock price I guess.
I really hope that something happens with OPC though, i have been holding for 2+ months now :zzz:

I can't see anything happening with OPC. Nexen isn't going to push development of another oilsands project and even if they did Opti wouldn't have the cash to go along with it. I think Opti is just going to hold on as best they can for another couple of years and try to sell their assets at that time (when oil is back up to $100 and some of the environmental talk in the US is put to rest).

I like UTS more for a play like that....now that the SU / PCA merger is complete, I can see them taking UTS out for their 20%.

[cosmok]

What's with HGD? Gold's down and it goes down as well?

[Dinan]

so i guess 3.60 NG didn't hold at all... 3.25 here we come :nut:


glad i only bought 500 shares....

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok
What's with HGD? Gold's down and it goes down as well?

may have something to do with the cad exchange rate as the
loonnie is being hammered in the last 24-48 hours

[Super_Geo]

Oil just broke under $70/BBL...

Enjoy the ride down, HODers!

[Dinan]

SR, you think 3.50 will hold up a bit???

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex


may have something to do with the cad exchange rate as the
loonnie is being hammered in the last 24-48 hours
Ahh yea, guess we'll see if it has some legs here or not

[davidI]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Oil just broke under $70/BBL...

Enjoy the ride down, HODers!

Where do you guys see the next resistance?

[SilverRex]

dOW is breaking down below its 50 EMA and uptrend line, looking good. Lets hope its a real break down as to force oil much lower

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


Where do you guys see the next resistance?

from oil and gold

69.28- which is at now and 68.48

[997TT]

HNU approaching the $4 mark ... anytime lately when its gotten that low its golden. I'm tempted to take an initial position here (whats 0.20 in the grand scheme of things) but would love to get in cheaper. That being said, the minute i buy i'm sure it will got to $3.15 NG and possibly lower ....

[SilverRex]

given there is a double fibo support near 67.50, I would attampt to hold out until 67.50-68 area. Then sell half in attampt for much lower oil would be my own strategy

[davidI]

Originally posted by 997TT
HNU approaching the $4 mark ... anytime lately when its gotten that low its golden. I'm tempted to take an initial position here (whats 0.20 in the grand scheme of things) but would love to get in cheaper. That being said, the minute i buy i'm sure it will got to $3.15 NG and possibly lower ....

Yea, I'm going to look at getting a small position in HNU and a larger position in GAS if things keep heading where they're heading.

Going to hold on to HOD for a bit and maybe clear out half my position later today ahead of the inventory reports tomorrow.

[SilverRex]

however there are some news release coming out in 5 mins,

not sure if that will skew things abit, but I think the bigger item would be tomorrow's Fed announcement and rate decision

[Dinan]

we are at 3.55 ng AND at 4.17 HNU,.,,,, damn these 2X ETF's :devil:

[skandalouz_08]

What site do you guys look at to see the commodities prices that are current without the delay?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
however there are some news release coming out in 5 mins,

not sure if that will skew things abit, but I think the bigger item would be tomorrow's Fed announcement and rate decision

if they leave it the same, how do you think the markets will take it?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08
What site do you guys look at to see the commodities prices that are current without the delay?

http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


if they leave it the same, how do you think the markets will take it?

well definately I dont think they will change the rate, but they may hint that now the market is getting better and recovery at hand and will consider raising rate by year end. This would be bad for market initally I think since no one wants higher rates

so the market resumes its sell off.

of course it be up to the market to prove the next few months indeed continues to recover with news, otherwise they are setting them selves up for a bigger fall if numbers in the 2nd half proves to be worse than expected

[Dinan]

anyone buying HNU??/

[davidI]

I'm going to hold off on HNU for a bit. May start building a position in GAS though...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
I'm going to hold off on HNU for a bit. May start building a position in GAS though...

i guess you going long with NG then?? i would wait a bit longer for that...

if i never had any positions in HNU i think i would have too, but then again you get more from HNU in the short term....

[Z_Fan]

I bought some more HNU just this AM at $4.18.

I do think it will go lower, so I only bought 1/3 of the shares I actually want. Still have cash on the side for the other 2/3. But I'm hoping it dips to $3.95 HNU or less before I will bother buying it.

But 997TT is right, every time HNU has hit $4.00 or so (which is only a couple IIRC) it has rebounded to be over $5.00 in short order. I wonder if this is third times a charm!!? We'll see.

I'm also on the HOD train but have been for a while. It was kind of doing nothing for several days. Now let's hope it stays moving and oil comes back to $40. :devil:

[cidley69]

If oil hit $40 what would that make HOD?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I bought some more HNU just this AM at $4.18.

I do think it will go lower, so I only bought 1/3 of the shares I actually want. Still have cash on the side for the other 2/3. But I'm hoping it dips to $3.95 HNU or less before I will bother buying it.

But 997TT is right, every time HNU has hit $4.00 or so (which is only a couple IIRC) it has rebounded to be over $5.00 in short order. I wonder if this is third times a charm!!? We'll see.

I'm also on the HOD train but have been for a while. It was kind of doing nothing for several days. Now let's hope it stays moving and oil comes back to $40. :devil:


yeah thats true, last time it hit 4.03 or soo before it went to 5.50

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by cidley69
If oil hit $40 what would that make HOD?

That would make HOD a gold mine. :D

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cidley69
If oil hit $40 what would that make HOD?

if oil was to drop to 40 instantly, then that is a 42% drop so x2 for HOD etf at 84% gain on 11.3x price level gives you about 20 dollars.

but wait. you will never see HOD drop like that, now dont forget for HOD, we may get a bit of a benefit here as everyone month between the 7th-10th, we roll over next month's contract and thus we get to buy at a higher oil price (2bucks more), so when the front month contract finishes. oil will see a quick 2 dollar gap up, and if the trend is down, obviously it get the benefit of the extra 2 dollar drop in price if oil continues to decline.

in other words, we may see alot of return.

just by looking at the HOD chart as posted a few days ago. I think HOD will see 20s again and over time we may even see the 40+ dollar range. I have a feeling if oil does get back to the 35 dollar or lower territory we will see very high HOD. I think times are different than HOU as the roll over effects eats or chips away 2 dollars every month, Therefore I think it may be safe to say, its better to trade HOU short term and HOD longer term assuming you catch the right train

[Red@8]

Glad I got into HOD.

I am still holding HNU with an avg in the mid $5's. I cant stand looking at it anymore and I dont want to put any more money in. I think I will just bail when it goes over $5 again and take the loss. I am tired of staring at the red on my screen everyday.

[SilverRex]

^ yeah NG is not ready to make sustainable up moves. all play should be viewed as short term. technically NG charts remains extremely weak

update. So DOW imo has broken the 50 day and up trend line, lets see how far this baby can drop.

[Dinan]

well i added some more into HNU since i didn't buy any HOD :( and got some cash lol, so WHEN NG goes down some more i'll buy more :facepalm:

[SilverRex]

^ not sure how HNU will fair, but I expect DOW to at least drop to about 9000 or possiblely lower, given we are only in aug 11, and cycle turn date low is still a week away at 17-22nd. This could be a slow grind downward, meaning very possibly we could see alot of one day up and one day down.

If that is so, and we get this right, we could potentially take profit, buy back higher, short again and repeat until the end of next week. Then watch for the market to change gears

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


If that is so, and we get this right, we could potentially take profit, buy back higher, short again and repeat until the end of next week. Then watch for the market to change gears

lead the way SR! :D

[997TT]

In HNU at $4.15.

if this thing gaps up 3-5% tommorrow i'm out.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by davidI
I'm going to hold off on HNU for a bit. May start building a position in GAS though...

If you want to sleep at night and not worry about leverage, GAS.TO is the way to go unless you are like 997TT, unlimited gambling money. :D

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost


If you want to sleep at night and not worry about leverage, GAS.TO is the way to go unless you are like 997TT, unlimited gambling money. :D

Yea, I'd rather put 2x the cash into GAS.TO and have less extreme volatility unless I'm feeling really confident about which way things are headed. I'm not sure enough about NG to bet either way. The inventories are still ridiculously high...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


Yea, I'd rather put 2x the cash into GAS.TO and have less extreme volatility unless I'm feeling really confident about which way things are headed. I'm not sure enough about NG to bet either way. The inventories are still ridiculously high...

true but HNU you is 1.6$ cheaper.... even with the loss of value, i think HNU is better, specially on the way up :)

[997TT]

strictly playing the pop (i hope). If there was a 5x leveraged NG play i'd be all over it .... lol

[max_boost]

FWIW,

I just rented a place to a geologist with Husky and he said, forget about nat gas (crazy high inventory), forget about the stock market, forget about home values, it's all going to be crumbling down later this year.

I said, "SAY WHAT"? lol :eek:

davidI, sputnik would be proud of you right now, possibly another one saved from the matrix. ;) :devil:

[cosmok]

Originally posted by max_boost
FWIW,

I just rented a place to a geologist with Husky and he said, forget about nat gas (crazy high inventory), forget about the stock market, forget about home values, it's all going to be crumbling down later this year.

I said, "SAY WHAT"? lol :eek:

davidI, sputnik would be proud of you right now, possibly another one saved from the matrix. ;) :devil:
I wouldn't take anything a geologist says seriously :rofl:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok

I wouldn't take anything a geologist says seriously :rofl:

i too expect the market to come crashing this winter as well and this is all technical, I think we are at least one more year out from complete recovery

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex


i too expect the market to come crashing this winter as well and this is all technical, I think we are at least one more year out from complete recovery
I feel the same way; most geos I know are a little loopy though.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


i too expect the market to come crashing this winter as well and this is all technical, I think we are at least one more year out from complete recovery

when do you think will see it start crashing down??

any plans to short anything? i bit far off from know i know

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


true but HNU you is 1.6$ cheaper.... even with the loss of value, i think HNU is better, specially on the way up :)

If you're going to swing trade on a 2-3 days basis I'd agree that HNU is better. Otherwise, I'd rather just 2x leverage GAS and forego the effects of the decay.

That said, I do tend to swing trade these things so I've played HNU / HND much more than GAS. I'll be looking to load up on GAS if we get down to the low 3's again though.

[SilverRex]

Dollar's Hit a "Major Bottom," Prechter Says: Why That's Not Such Good News
Posted Aug 11, 2009 07:44am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Newsmakers, Commodities
Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, UUP, UDN, TBT, GLD, SLV
Forget all the talk about the dollar being in terminal decline. The recent rally in the greenback is for real, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. The man who correctly predicted the 1987 crash and last year's peak in oil prices now says we're "going to be up for a year or two in the dollar."

Reuters and other mainstream news outlets attribute the recent uptick in the dollar versus other major currencies to an improving economy signaled by Friday's "stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers." Prechter, ever the contrarian, says the U.S. dollar has put in a major bottom but not for the reasons everyone else is pointing to.

Prechter points to three factors:

The Elliott Wave Pattern: Without getting too technical (for your sake and mine) Elliott Wave Theory looks at markets cycles in terms of wave structures that come in five parts. Five waves up followed by five waves down. Well, according to Prechter's research the pattern confirms we recently hit the fifth wave down. Next stop: up.

Sentiment has reached an extreme: "The Dollar Sentiment Index for the Dollar Index reports just 3% bulls among traders, an extreme level only five times in the past 20 years, usually near an important low," Prechter wrote on Aug. 5. "The last time we saw readings like this was March-July 2008, just before the dollar soared." In other words, the "short the dollar" trade is overly crowded.

The biggest risk to the economy is deflation not inflation: As he lays out in his book, Conquer the Crash, Prechter thinks the bursting of the latest bubble will lead to a major economic depression.
As we discuss in forthcoming segments, this good news for the dollar spells bad news for most other asset classes including stocks, commodities and real estate.

[Super_Geo]

Interesting article, SR.

I'll be holding HOD and HGD for a while, I guess...



SR, what do you think of Sprint (S:NYSE)? It's RSI is just breaking under 30, recently the share price took a beating and looks to be oversold and ready for a quick flip with entry in the mid/low-3s and an exit at 4.xx.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Interesting article, SR.

I'll be holding HOD and HGD for a while, I guess...



SR, what do you think of Sprint (S:NYSE)? It's RSI is just breaking under 30, recently the share price took a beating and looks to be oversold and ready for a quick flip with entry in the mid/low-3s and an exit at 4.xx.

MACD is looking week, and it's under the 200 day, i would wait in the .20-.30's .... it should get there...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Interesting article, SR.

I'll be holding HOD and HGD for a while, I guess...



SR, what do you think of Sprint (S:NYSE)? It's RSI is just breaking under 30, recently the share price took a beating and looks to be oversold and ready for a quick flip with entry in the mid/low-3s and an exit at 4.xx.

hmm the chart does not offer too many swing points to be analyzed properly, I would just use the common fibo level from the 1.35 low to 5.94 top which yields, 4.19, 3.64 and 3.10

yes its is over sold, but remember if the trend is down, it can remain oversold for a while. just out of a guess I would imagine there should be some sort of rally either off 3.10 or 3.64, I suppose you could make a case for a flip at those support levels. but caution as if 3.10 gives way, clearly this entire run off 1.35 could be corrective and it may want to drop further

also it appears 3.64 is not providing the support it needs, if it closes below this for a day or two I would look into the next support. and even though 3.10 is a fibo level, there is actually some sort of once heavy resistance which now should be support some where between 2.88-3.03, so I'll wait a few days and see how price reacts when and if it gets there.

[Bisklimpkit]

Has anyone followed HMD at all? I see they're changing the way this ETF is handled later this month, but it looks to me like a good buy right now. Any idea how removing the gold players and going strictly to base metals will affect the price of this ETF?

[skandalouz_08]

What's going on with AVM? I see they are releasing results later this week for the 2nd quarter, just wondering if anyone is still in it? Is it too late to get in now?

[SilverRex]

997tt this is for you

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1249957432.php

[broken_legs]

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/oil_081209.jpg


OIL vs NG

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/oil_gas_081209.jpg

OIL vs SnP500

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/OIL_SnP_081209.jpg

[DRKM]

^^^ What is also intresting about the Correlations between those graphs is that they all move with the USD as well. It is kinda retarted when you think about what exactly we are trading when everytihng is stronly correlated with the USD.

I remember I ran some correlations a couple of months ago and found that gold,oil,natgas, the CAD where all over 80% correlated to the USD. All with ZERO hour lag times.

Also with the market moving sideways for the past two weeks something big is waiting to happen. I am on the bear side due to the lack of volume. Also the VIX index is starting to show some signs of motion again...

[SilverRex]

so while yesterday we got our expectation that the market was headed down in most sectors however price didnt move nearly as much as we wanted. but no matter as the DOW broke a very important up trend line and the dollar too broke above a very important down trend line.

looking at the dollar I did expect a correction and still believe we are in one, now we have a triple top formation which is nice because all eyes will be when we can break above this triple top to signal the big advance is underway. until then I expect fully for the dollar to to head a bit lower either to retest the broken trend line support or until stoch is again over sold.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar081209.jpg

and with the dollar, seems as DKRM mention, everything moves against the USD, really why wouldnt it so as the USD is the reserve currency of the world and will continue to be so until extreme inflation kicks in, but that could be many months away if not a year.

so looking at oil, the sharp drop out of 70 oil was encouraging as it's been range bound pretty much for awhile, but now that it has became bearish that doesnt mean it couldnt go up either. depending on today's important fed announcement, we could see some action coming in this lunch hour. until then technically market is in a bit of a pull back mode and stoch is too appears poised to head higher pulling oil back up with it. notice the red line I drew, I would expect this to be the play catcher, if oil some how suddenly makes a strong rally, I would say this red trend line will and should hold oil down.

Now i am already short oil under 11 HOD. and am not going to sell just because I think there is a correction coming, because no one can for sure tell me how high it will go and the last thing I want is to ditch oil only to see it drop like a brick. But for those that didnt get in, maybe today will give you another chance to short oil at a better price.

(oil trend is down but expect small pull back)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil0812090.jpg


finally gold, gold is slowly making ways lower and lower ever since it topped out the all important 971. however as you can see by the red up trend line, it is holding it in place, this up trend line is also some what visible on the daily chart which is what gold needs to break in order to continue to decline, until then just like everything else, I do welcome if not expect a pull back. But if gold is to break below this trend line, then that is pretty bearish imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold081209.jpg

[Dinan]

you think will see, HOD under 11 again??

[SilverRex]

^ if we do buy like there is no tomorrow :)

[Dinan]

hahahha, so then what would be a more realistic entry point then?

[SilverRex]

ok folks for those that are holding HOD. its time to be greedy. why? because situation like this doesnt hapopen too often.

and so after reviewing the oil charts again, couple with the fact that the DSI sentiment is so extreme more than likely we are at a trend change to a large degree coming. meaning very strong US dollar ahead. and if that is so what do we do? short oil/gold/silver and even equities if you were able to pick the top.

but I think stocks will lag alittle behind and so oil, gold alike will be the leading indicator all the way down initially.

speaking of it. I believe we have a double top happening here. with stoch over bought. its time to not think about short gains but rather big gains. first oil will have to take out a short term up trend line (denote in small red line) then the bigger purple one.

Even if oil is to make a 2+ dash upward, I view this as just another better shorting opportunity. I would suggest holding all your HOD position as long as possible, at least until oil hits those red/purple uptrend line, then wait for a reversal pull back or a break and a retest then short again.

reason now is, this could very well be one of those optimal opportunity to make a much larger gain. when I see HOD, I see 10.58 as bottom and I see in due time HOD has the potential to meet if not exceed 47 dollars. Im not joking.

But we've been there before and we have seen how HOU didnt really do much even when oil doubled off 33 dollars. well dont forget its more difficult to play HOU because of the 2+ dollar roll over every month, but not with hOD. compare both charts and take a look at what you see. when oil doubled from 33 to 70s, hou only give us from 4 to 11 dollars. but when oil dropped from 70s to 33s hod give us 10 dollar to 47. need I say more?

Depending your risk/reward tolerence. I would suggest opening a good strong position to short oil at current level, then if oil does drop and hits about 64-65 I would sell half or you can sell and wait for a clear break down then a retest of the trend line to short again, but either way I am now expecting a big come back in HOD in months ahead.

since oil is in the process of topping out, it will first unfold a 5 wave down leg pattern, and typically wave III down is the longest and most powerful, so before this happens, we have to see a wave 1 down first, this will give us a bit of a breathing room, exit, take profit or buy back and hopefully if we do get this to start moving your stops to break and reduce your risk.

good luck y'all

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oiltoday-6.jpg

[SilverRex]

oh and I guess I forgot to mention, that aint going to be good for NG

[Rat Fink]

.

[KRZY403]

i knew i should have sold hod yesterday. back to break even

[Dinan]

damn, look at oil go!


time to buy i guess...

[davidI]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
I agree with you silver on thinking oil is going down. I bought a bunch of HOD at 10.95 the other day, and just sold my HGD and bought more HOD a minute ago. sitting at an 11.13 average. I may have jumped the gun on my second purchase but I can't guarantee when I'll be on the internet next so I took the shot today.

...and now I turn my computer off for the day..maybe the rest of the week. good luck all!

I've been toying with doing the same. Can't decide whether to buy some more HOD now or after the inventory report...

[997TT]

doubled up my HOD position....lol

SR what is your exit price on silver?

[davidI]

Never mind. Picked up another 400 shares at $11.05. Sitting on 800 at $11.02 now, which is a large risk position for my portfolio.

Time to roll the dice!

[Super_Geo]

When does the inventory report for oil come in? It's up $1.30 right now... thinking of getting another HOD position in.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
doubled up my HOD position....lol

SR what is your exit price on silver?

not sure yet, but I would suggest 11.50-12.50 is a good first exit or take half of your profit, another EW target suggest 4 dollar which would be insane and I hope we will never see that it would cause a major depression.

but H&S if produced on the silver chart once it does break down will yield a target of 8.27

[Dinan]

in at 11.06 .....another group buy ehhh :facepalm: :rofl:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
When does the inventory report for oil come in? It's up $1.30 right now... thinking of getting another HOD position in.

wednesday at 1030 for oil and thursday at 1030 for NG

[davidI]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
When does the inventory report for oil come in? It's up $1.30 right now... thinking of getting another HOD position in.

10:30 ET. Should be interesting to see what the price does then.

[davidI]

^Dinan beat me too it.

Here's a good link for market moving news releases.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

[Dinan]

ahhh there it goes under 11$

[cosmok]

And there's the pop

[Dinan]

good inventory for us HOD holders :)

thanks for the run up in oil to pick some more HOD :D:D

[997TT]

whew ...had me a bit worred at $10.95.

lol

actually set a stop just in case inventory caused a spike.

Now just need to sell HNU when it hits $4.25 ...has done so twice but i think this is it...its going through the roof. lol...only to find it back in the $4.1X's

[Dinan]

damn, oil is heading back up, and NG is heading back up.....

why can't it be the other way around :D

[Super_Geo]

Sold out of HGD and took another position in HOD.... let's hope this group buy goes well :devil:

When does HOD start tracking the October contract instead of September's?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Sold out of HGD and took another position in HOD.... let's hope this group buy goes well :devil:

When does HOD start tracking the October contract instead of September's?

i think i started... if i remember correctly it rolls over on the 7th,8th and 9th, on every month...:dunno:

[Super_Geo]

So sometime after August 7-10 HGD starts tracking the October futures for oil?

[skandalouz_08]

you mean HOU and HOD

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Sold out of HGD and took another position in HOD.... let's hope this group buy goes well :devil:

When does HOD start tracking the October contract instead of September's?

we are already tracking oct oil since the 10th

ive added another position at 11.01

[SilverRex]

euro is overbought, and dollar is over sold. I expect the dollar to find a bottom around this area, once the dust settles, im hoping we should see a resumption of trend

[Dinan]

so SR, so you don't see 80$ oil like before??

how long you holding HOD?


or you think there is going to be another rally in oil/gold and equities before the major downturn ?

[SilverRex]

^

no initially the 5th wave suppose to target the upper 75-81 about but as the dollar made an obvious bottom and technical break out, oil is still could not break above the previous high of 73.35, therefore the revised count is that the 5th wave is a truncated 5th which is telling you oil bull does not have enough strength to make higher, resulting in a near double top formation. wave 5 are usually emotional trades and never as power ful as wave 3. so if oil stop dead at its tracks I believe we will see a beginning of an agressive sell down

[Dinan]

what happened to never trade with emotions ? lol


there goes NG!!!

[civic_rida]

What is going on with natural gas.
Wonder if you we will see a stock split for hnu

[SilverRex]

^ NG broke down below an up trend line similar to when it first broke below 3.71 if everyone recalls which resulted a further drop to 3.22.

based on price projection, NG could very well dip to 3.00

ok so we have our first poke this morning across all sectors. after a little pull back it feels as though it wants to head a bit higher. dont be surprise it does as the fed at noon should be quite interesting.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
So sometime after August 7-10 HGD starts tracking the October futures for oil?

7/8/9th business day of the month so it'll be 11-13th. It's a 3 day rollover.

Day 1 is 75% front and 25% near.
Day 2 is 50% front and 50% near.
Day 3 is 25% front and 75% near.
Day 4 is 100% near.

But that's different than the expiry date of the futures contract which is found here http://www.nymex.com/CL_term.aspx

[Dinan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
What is going on with natural gas.
Wonder if you we will see a stock split for hnu

yeah that would suck if we see a reverse stock split :facepalm:


thats what you get with a 2x leverage ETF thats crazy volatile like NG....

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^ NG broke down below an up trend line similar to when it first broke below 3.71 if everyone recalls which resulted a further drop to 3.22.

based on price projection, NG could very well dip to 3.00

ok so we have our first poke this morning across all sectors. after a little pull back it feels as though it wants to head a bit higher. dont be surprise it does as the fed at noon should be quite interesting.

are you still holding your HNU ?

[SilverRex]

^ no ive sold it along time ago after I made my conservative play from 3.65 to 3.91

and after it made what appears to be an ABC correction then near 4.16 I suggest if I had to bet I would sell NG

[Dinan]

^^ i meant your initial entry at 6$.....

[davidI]

People have mentioned it before, but do you folks that work downtown want to do a lunch one day?

How about August 27th - 11:45 to 1ish at SOHO (801 6th Street SW). Let me know if you're in and I'll make a reso.

[SilverRex]

so as I posted since monday, was expecting an ABC correction for the dollar index, it appears we may have got it. and that should set up a nice wave III run that will be aggressive. However typically price can still retrace 50% and 61% and the chart will still remain valid. but I am going to call a top here simply because there is the 200 EMA there as well as we have tested the 38% fibo as well as we are right at the down trend line that was broken a few days ago thus it would make a perfect case to rally off from here.

once the stoch crosses over and comes out of 20 then this should confirm it

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollartoday-2.jpg