Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Red@8]

Finally bailed on HNU - that was a big kick to the junk. :facepalm:

Threw some more money into HOD.

[SilverRex]

fed announcement in 5 min

[guessboi]

good thing i picked HOD to dump my money and not HNU.
still have a small position in HNU though. :facepalm:

[Super_Geo]

Consensus: -130B to -181B
Actual: -180.7B

So the deficit is on the high end of predictions... what does that mean for the USD and oil?

[SilverRex]

997tt: just to add on to the comment about you asking when to take profit on silver. While there are a few taget pointing to 8 and even as low as 3-4 dollars. I would not attampt to short silver all the way that low. I will most likely give the near by heavy support between 11-12 simply because if you look back at silver in the last two ABC corrections, while typically the C correction suppose to be lower than A, but in both cases, they were not lower but higher, so we could very well see some thing similar where silver makes a low in the 10s then reverse higher.

of course we will be able to confirm the C is in once silver breaks the down trend line drawn from the peak to the current B top at 16 dollars. so plenty of time to load up and go long for some massive return.

until then, do the approch I have always used, if we get this top right, then taking profit should be easy as I would take half my profit at 12s, then take another hafe in the 11s then 10s. you know what I mean all the while having a stop break even once your in the green by a longer margin

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Consensus: -130B to -181B
Actual: -180.7B

So the deficit is on the high end of predictions... what does that mean for the USD and oil?

never mind I think im looking at the wrong thing here

[Dinan]

when do you think will see a weaker USD?? need to convert my USD back to canadian :D

few more minutes...

[SilverRex]

^ well over all its weak USD going forward for a few months but at the same time

there may be one more rally. So if I want everythint to line up, I hope we get a very sharp sell off with in the next few days. then the market will view this as a buying opportunity for those who missed the boat thinking the recession is over.

then the fun begins in sept.

all the way if oil does drop first, I may be incline to exit half of my position to lock in some profit as there (the first wave 1 down) will no doubt not be the longest and will see oil bounce back quite possibly starting with 67 oil or even 64, then I will short again for the wave III

but if the market doesnt sell off soon, we could run into more of a drag or cosolidation which I dont want to see, I rather see oil dip hard first then think about when to get back in then to come out and ease the tension off you guys holding hod if oil suddenly is itching to break 73.

but for now 73.35 is the magic number. its down she goes unless this level is broken

update wow, euro suddenly dropped, so is gold after all morning.

could this be it :)

[Super_Geo]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aUalXGFEkBDU


Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may extend declines by as much as $6 a barrel to meet a trend line connecting low prices over a five-month period, according to a technical analysis by Newedge USA LLC.

The trend line points to a possible price of $64.53 on Aug. 13 and $64.69 on Aug. 14, the report showed.

“The market is $6 above the trend line,” said Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst for Newedge in Chicago. “There’s room for substantial decline without really changing the whole long-term picture.”

Oil for October delivery has fallen past key resistance at $70 a barrel, and the next significant support is $68.25 to $67.80, Lashinski said.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index continuation daily chart presents a bearish picture and will weigh on crude oil prices, Lashinski said.

“Right now the S&P is looking pretty heavy, and they tend to follow in the same direction,” Lashinski said, referring to oil prices following the equities index. Yesterday, the S&P lost as much as 1.5 percent, the biggest drop in more than a month.

Crude oil for September delivery fell $1.15, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $69.45 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the fourth straight day of declines and the first time crude settled below $70 this month.

Crude oil for September delivery has support levels from $68.40 to $67.30 and a resistance level of $70.70, Lashinski said yesterday.

[Dinan]

wow, the market doesn't know where to go, for a second there i thought we were going down south! but we heading back up now

[Dinan]

wow, look at the DOW, 175+ :eek:

debating if i should hold HOD or not:dunno:

[997TT]

I'm debating whether i should just take the hit on HNU...lol

had 3 opps to sell at $4.25 and after the first time told myself if it gets back there i'm gonna sell.

got back there and i got greedy.

thanks for the update on Silver SR....HZD currently back under $18 (17.85 x 17.90)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
wow, look at the DOW, 175+ :eek:

debating if i should hold HOD or not:dunno:

its up to your risk/tolerence, im not buying on this rally especially its low volume, perhaps other sectors like gold/euro havent quite completed their wave C correction.

[civic_rida]

Winter is coming up soon, dont think that natural gas is going to go up soon?

[Dinan]

i would wait till tomorrow to sell, i think will get some kinda pop before inventory...


the DOW is getting real close to 9420.... :nut:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Winter is coming up soon, dont think that natural gas is going to go up soon?

well in a normal market yes, but in a deflationary enviorment, it did nothing but follow the trend lower and lower just like last year.

[Dinan]

well it got over 9420,:nut: but it's getting overbought!:dunno:

[Rstar]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Winter is coming up soon, dont think that natural gas is going to go up soon?

Inventories are way too high right now. It will take a ridiculously long and cold winter to put a dent in it.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Rstar


Inventories are way too high right now. It will take a ridiculously long and cold winter to put a dent in it.


i'm hoping for some hurricane plays, but still i think no matter what, come winter time we should see NG higher...

[civic_rida]

I have dreams of natural gas hittin 12 dollars :zzz:

[Rstar]

Not sure if this has been touched on before regarding the Horizon Betapros, but just to be sure...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/markets/beware-the-leveraged-etf/article1125804/

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/the-trouble-with-leveraged-etfs/article1212916/

The way they rebalance and use leverage/derivatives ends up costing the investor quite a bit of their return, or makes their losses even worst.

[Dinan]

i would be happy with 6-7$ NG..... :D

[Rstar]

haha i'll cross my fingers for you guys, but i'm not making a bet one way or the other.

here are some more gas charts:

[Dinan]

do you guys think will get a revers split on HNU??

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Dinan
do you guys think will get a revers split on HNU??

What difference would it make?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by sputnik


What difference would it make?

yeah it doesnt make any difference

it would if it were a publically traded stock as it has a emotional effect to it

[skandalouz_08]

Got into HNU right before close at $4.01, we'll see what happens...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by sputnik


What difference would it make?

lose more money..... if NG keeps on going down!

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Dinan


lose more money..... if NG keeps on going down!

You might want to read up a bit on how ETFs work.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


lose more money..... if NG keeps on going down!

Meh, 2 stocks worth $1 are the same as 1 stock worth $2.

They just reverse split to avoid reaching zero...so you'll only lose more if you keep buying back in!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by sputnik


You might want to read up a bit on how ETFs work.

what i mean about that is i will have to pay more for after....

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


Meh, 2 stocks worth $1 are the same as 1 stock worth $2.

They just reverse split to avoid reaching zero...so you'll only lose more if you keep buying back in!

then when it goes back down to 1$ i'll still have 1 stock, where i had 2 before :dunno:

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


then when it goes back down to 1$ i'll still have 1 stock, where i had 2 before :dunno:

You would have had 2 stocks worth $.50 each, which is still $1.

edit: :rofl:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


You would have had 2 stocks worth $.50 each, which is still $1.

edit: :rofl:

but you said i'll have 1 share at 2$, how would i have 2 ??

it's been a long day, i'm lost :nut:



this is how i look at it,,,, i have 2 shares at 1$, they do the split, and now i got 1 share at 2$... now in my account i only have 1 share or i still have 2 but they are worth less now, at .50cent each??

i dunno for some reason i'm getting really confused with this lol

[davidI]

Basically a reverse stock split just means that they will consolidate the number of shares to make for a higher stock price, but the underlying value of your position will remain the same.

For example, if you held 100 shares at $1 and they did a 1:2 reverse split you'd have 50 shares at $2.

Now, let's think about a 50% price drop with a hypothetical stock that wasn't split, and one that was.

No split = 100 shares at $1 ($100) would fall 50% to 100 shares at $0.50 = $50

1:2 split = 50 shares at $2 ($100) would fall 50% to 50 shares at $1 = $50.

The net effect is the same, only the ticker price looks different.

[Dinan]

^^ thanks

[davidI]

No worries. I posted this before but it's a few pages back now...


People have mentioned it before, but do you folks that work downtown want to do a lunch one day?

How about August 27th - 11:45 to 1ish at SOHO (801 6th Street SW). Let me know if you're in and I'll make a reso.

[troyl]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I heard Connacher Oil & Gas might be in for some good news in the next month or so; they are sitting around 90 cents right now... a bargain for a solid 3$ stock IMO.

TSX:CLL

Good call! very strong q2 results released today. Hope it can run a little tomorrow.

[guessboi]

if HNU doesn't break around 3.9 tomorrow. I am going to add another position for the short term. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

ok so while I Expected the rally because we are at an ABC correction. It did continued higher over night and I suspect the correction was not finished, the first pop in deed was the A and we should hopfully see the completion of C this morning. If you recall I drew a red resistance line which is now a bit higher around 72s.

The bearish sentiment remains valid as long as 73.35 is not violated to the upside. So continue to watch that level closely. if my counts are correction we should see a top out this morning as STOCH is way over bought, look for it to come out of or down below 80 reading.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil081309.jpg

similar to oil, gold was expected to rebound yesterday after it broke out of a down trend line all the while main reason being gold stopped at 941 is the short term up trend line holding it at bay. none the less it too looked like it wants to complete the ABC pattern. while 957 is now a resistance, gold is currently testing this level as well. imo I believe 957 should hold but any rally higher should be viewed as a great opportunity to short. Also look for Stoch to come out of overbought to confirm trend change.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold081309.jpg

Now the dollar chart. for the entire week, I expected a correction and I am getting it to the fulliest extend, while I though the correction was finished and thd ollar did rally off the 200 EMA, trend line support (green) and first level 38% I did caution the dollar can stil move lower because it may want to test the 50% or 61% all the while still holding the bullish picture in tact. And now the dollar has moved down to the 50% fibo as I write this which gives me a better ABC correction pattern. hopefully this is where it will stop but if it doesnt then a few critical levels we must watch closely.

Dollar must hold 78.12, euro must hold 4330, and oil 73.35, if these levels are violated then I may have to revise the count. Even if they are brokend does that mean further upside? possibly, but at the same time I must viewed that the dollar is supposed to have bottomed and worse case scenario could mean we are getting a bit longer consolidation for dollar's bottom than I expected.

anyhow so watch those levels mention closely all the way believing if the count is correction, then we sholuld see a reverse soon.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar081309.jpg

[SilverRex]

and for shorting silver, this is the only one that may cause a bit of pain as silver broke higher I will be concern if it closes the week higher than 15, but until it does I view silver maybe be work opening another short position at this gifted level.

[SilverRex]

ok I never post the loonie here but I think it warrants it because it shows a perfect example of how such a great tool EW is

looking at it every since the usd bottom against the loonie, it completed a 5 wave structure with a 5th wave extenstion. Notice in an uptrend every price respected every prior highs and just rallied higher after wards?, but with the sharp rise comes a great fall when it gets into an ABC correction because typical EW theory suggest price should retrace back to at least the prior wave iii and wave iv and it is also typically it will retrace to its fibo levels and it will also retrace into a form of an ABC wave pattern which we got,

so if the top of the chart is wave I and this is a wave II correction, the last EW theory to hold true and must hold true will be that this retracement cannot break down below wave i and so far it is repecting that to the TEE.

and finally, EW can fail at times but most time when you spot these pattern they hold water and gives you such a good guidence as to what to expect. if prices changes, we revise our count.

so if this chart suggest we have bottomed and correction is in, then every other chart should in turn complete their correction as well imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/loonietoday.jpg

[SilverRex]

also all 4 data US release are negative couple that with an unexpected rise in unemployment claims.

im wondering how long this asia rally spill over will end. expecting a pop first then drop today

[davidI]

Well, oil at $71.70 right now. I agree with your TA though SR....just waiting for the market to agree now!!!

[Dinan]

NG is down!!!! oil came down a bit too.... lets hope it keeps on going!

[SilverRex]

shorted more above 15 silver. shorted euro at 4300 and also added another long position on usd/cad 0805

[Dinan]

you guys know a US ETF to short silver?

[davidI]

Wow, oil came down a lot at open. Nice! I was expecting much deeper red in my portfolio.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
Wow, oil came down a lot at open. Nice! I was expecting much deeper red in my portfolio.

yeah same here, i was like:eek: when i saw 72 oil.... now i'm green on HOD :)


and deep RED in HNU

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by Dinan


yeah same here, i was like:eek: when i saw 72 oil.... now i'm green on HOD :)


and deep RED in HNU

Haha I'm in the exact same boat, green on HOD and red on HNU. Stupid HNU!

[SilverRex]

if this is it, I dont think it will stop oil at least unto 67.6 at the least

[Dinan]

yeah i thought we would see a pop before inventory like we did with oil yesterday, but we didn't, it's do or die now till 10:30


Originally posted by SilverRex
if this is it, I dont think it will stop oil at least unto 67.6 at the least

lets hope soo...

[guessboi]

me too. green on HOD, red for the remaining position in HNU.
:nut:

[Red@8]

Anyone picking up HGD here in the $6.5x?

[Dinan]

markets are turning GREEN!


oil is moving on up while NG is moving down... ahhhhh this sucks!

[davidI]

Anyone have a good link for streaming the AECO contracts. I'm going to watch GAS and look to pick it up if it gets much lower.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=GAS.TO,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iue12,26,9!lc20]

[Dinan]

alright, a bit better inventory :)

but it's heading back down! :(


it seems like the only thing that could save us is a strong hurricane :(

[Red@8]

I am so glad i bailed on HNU. Too bad I didnt do it sooner.

[KappaSigma]

VMS slightly moving. Nice having a core position of $0.24 :)

[davidI]

Well, HOD is back under $11. :(

[DRKM]

Ahhh. There goes NG a bit/

[997TT]

Anybody else having trouble with TD.

fkn pos bank.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by 997TT
Anybody else having trouble with TD.

fkn pos bank.

Nope.

[Strider]

SilverRex, can you comment on DJUSFN with respect to EW theory? I'm trying to figure out if/how it applies, but I don't really see the 1,2,3,4,5,A,B,C pattern...
Should we expect a retracement to ~307 (61.8%)?

Thx

[Zenshi]

wow i am pissed. TD stock orders is broken online... they are having technical difficulties

997T; I just called them and they are working on it. They don't know when its going to be back up. The best thing they can do is put you through to an agent to have ur order put through at the same commission.

[SilverRex]

^ DOW is some what hard to read as we've had a pretty sharp rally with out any major pull back or swing pts. but from an over all chart, DOW is supposed to be topped out about now.

definately a critical moment right now. as I've posted earlier this morning, so long the critical levels are not broken to the other side, I continue to favor a fake rally then drop

[Pacman]

ON edit, the problem has identified a few posts up.

[SilverRex]

its scary isnt it, but thats where money is to be made, you sell on rallies, not when it already dropped a whack load and trying to catch the crumbs.

hang in there boys

[Strider]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^ DOW is some what hard to read as we've had a pretty sharp rally with out any major pull back or swing pts. but from an over all chart, DOW is supposed to be topped out about now.

definately a critical moment right now. as I've posted earlier this morning, so long the critical levels are not broken to the other side, I continue to favor a fake rally then drop

Thanks! I'll stay tuned to your updates.

[Dinan]

anyone buy HGD?


HZD, is at 52 week low.... hmmmmmmm......

[Red@8]

Yeah i picked up some HGD.

[superboyazn]

this is a great read! thanks for your TA SilverRex!

My impression is its time to buy HOD with oil rallying, pushing HOD lower and when the correction hits, HOD will rise. Correct?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by superboyazn
this is a great read! thanks for your TA SilverRex!

My impression is its time to buy HOD with oil rallying, pushing HOD lower and when the correction hits, HOD will rise. Correct?

Unless oil breaks out over that obvious double top formation.

Seems like a super obvious trade. All of the obvious chart patterns have turned out to do the opposite in this market.

[davidI]

^ correct.

I'm in for 1000 shares at $11.02 now. Hope the correction hits!!!

[bigbadboss101]

Someone post when TD's problem is fixed please :-)

[broken_legs]

I just took a position in HNU @ 3.90

I feel that one more run to 4.00-4.50 NG is in order.

Kinda feeling like Oil will not sell off. Too many people getting short. A little birdie told me its going to be strong into the first week of September.


Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Someone post when TD's problem is fixed please :-)

TD's been working wonderfully all morning long

[Vanish3d]

Someone post when Oil is fucking down!
this is just annoying, i dont have patience :zzz:

[Zenshi]

Serious Broken? It's broken for me still, I was on hold w/ TD for 30 mins for the technical support, then another 30 mins to put my sell order through to an agent.

[bg_27]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Someone post when TD's problem is fixed please :-)

My friend was having problems with his TD Webbroker too, but on my TD Active Trader its been working fine all morning.

[Pacman]

Originally posted by bg_27


My friend was having problems with his TD Webbroker too, but on my TD Active Trader its been working fine all morning.

I think the problem is with the Webbroker side, as my mothers Active Trader platform is working perfectly.

[superboyazn]

Mine was down but its back up now!

HOD down to 10.84...

[Zenshi]

td webroker is fixed

[bigbadboss101]

thank you young man. Now, buy more oil bear?

[997TT]

What a fkn shitty day.

1. shitty day to be 2x short ...lol
2. TD goes down
3. have quotestream on my bb to get RT quotes and its been down all fkn morning. So now i either have to stay logged into TD or get delayed quotes from google finance or something. But i'd rather not do that b/c i'm on the internet using company bandwidth. FAWK

:banghead:

[Dinan]

bought few more HNU at 3.78 :facepalm: :banghead:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
What a fkn shitty day.

1. shitty day to be 2x short ...lol
2. TD goes down
3. have quotestream on my bb to get RT quotes and its been down all fkn morning. So now i either have to stay logged into TD or get delayed quotes from google finance or something. But i'd rather not do that b/c i'm on the internet using company bandwidth. FAWK

:banghead:

yeah shitty is right...


hey i got the bold, where can i quotestream ?? is that a app?

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Dinan


yeah shitty is right...


hey i got the bold, where can i quotestream ?? is that a app?

If you figure out realtime quote on the bold let me know. I just stay logged on to my bank website and hit refresh every minute or 2 when Im not at my office.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


If you figure out realtime quote on the bold let me know. I just stay logged on to my bank website and hit refresh every minute or 2 when Im not at my office.

yeah i do that same, but it sucks that you can't trade on it, :(

google has real time but for the US stocks....

[guessboi]

wow HNU is breaking new lows. I am going to wait on the sidelines.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Dinan


yeah i do that same, but it sucks that you can't trade on it, :(

google has real time but for the US stocks....

What?? what you mean you can't trade on it? what bank are you with?
Im with RBC and I have no problem trading on it (its obviously slow, but when u NEED to trade u can)

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Dinan
bought few more HNU at 3.78 :facepalm: :banghead:

I bought more at $3.82. :banghead::facepalm:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


What?? what you mean you can't trade on it? what bank are you with?
Im with RBC and I have no problem trading on it (its obviously slow, but when u NEED to trade u can)

oh yeah? you can, damn i'm with BMO. what browser are you using?

[skandalouz_08]

I looked up Quotestream, its $10 to get the app for blackberry and another $10/month to get the realtime quotes. Could be worth it if you're not in the office all the time, but not worth it for me.

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by Dinan


oh yeah? you can, damn i'm with BMO. what browser are you using?

I'm using internet explorer w/ Scotia and mine allows me to trade on it. At home I use Firefox and I don't have problems either. Maybe its just the way BMO is set up?

[997TT]

^ ya i'm in the office but just dont want to be on the internet all the time.

So i just put my BB beside my keyboard and watch it.

Figure its a small price to pay to not get fired for excessive internet usage...lol

hmmm...why is this guy on the net from 7:30 to 14:00 everyday....lets fire his punk ass for daytrading on the job.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08


I'm using internet explorer w/ Scotia and mine allows me to trade on it. At home I use Firefox and I don't have problems either. Maybe its just the way BMO is set up? \

on your blackberry ? :dunno:

[guessboi]

why didn't I go with HND when I sold my HNU at 5.4 last time. :banghead: I knew it was coming back down.

[SilverRex]

divergence on DOW 5 min chart, drop baby drop

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by Dinan
\

on your blackberry ? :dunno:

No on my computer. I haven't had to enter any trades on my BB yet so I'm not sure if that will work. Sorry, thought you were talking about trading on your pc.

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by 997TT
^ ya i'm in the office but just dont want to be on the internet all the time.

So i just put my BB beside my keyboard and watch it.

Figure its a small price to pay to not get fired for excessive internet usage...lol

hmmm...why is this guy on the net from 7:30 to 14:00 everyday....lets fire his punk ass for daytrading on the job.

Ahh gotcha, my company (scotia) uses an intranet based system so I'm always connected in some way or another and being on the Scotia website will not trigger anything for our IT people.