PDA

View Full Version : Official Short-term Investments Thread



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 [163] 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356

Z_Fan
08-14-2009, 02:02 PM
Yup. Just exited at $12.01.

But I think both moves may have been bad decisions. We'll see on Monday. But if oil tanks, which I want, NG usually follows suit so I just needed to get out of HNU and stop the bleeding. Those stocks kind of are conflicting, however, for some reason the NG and OIL ratio is drastically getting out of control. Quite often NG tanks even if oil is rising. And NG tanks when oil tanks too. Go figure.

davidI
08-14-2009, 02:11 PM
Yea, the fundamentals on NG have really changed ever since the discovery of Shale Gas in NA. The thing with oil is that we really haven't discovered any new supply so even with weakening of demand with the recession, there isn't really that much excess capacity. Less than 10% of world demand, really.

With NG, there is huge potential for supply that could come on in a relatively short time-frame, and demand has also weakened.

I think the differential between NG & Oil will be higher than it has been in the past for quite some time to come!

Dinan
08-14-2009, 02:39 PM
Originally posted by Z_Fan
Yup. Just exited at $12.01.

But I think both moves may have been bad decisions. We'll see on Monday. But if oil tanks, which I want, NG usually follows suit so I just needed to get out of HNU and stop the bleeding. Those stocks kind of are conflicting, however, for some reason the NG and OIL ratio is drastically getting out of control. Quite often NG tanks even if oil is rising. And NG tanks when oil tanks too. Go figure.

i think you should have at least held HNU till monday! there is a strong support around this price, should have at least a small bounce if nothing else....


i think this month will be a hard month for NG and when we roll over to the next contract next month i think will start moving on up, unless we get a hurricane before then :D

Z_Fan
08-14-2009, 02:49 PM
I kept 1000 shares of HNU.

Just in case it does something. I need it to move up about $1.00 to break even on HNU.

Red@8
08-16-2009, 02:02 PM
Does anyone trade on the US pink sheets? I have never traded on there before. Anything to be aware of or look out for? I am thinking of getting into ASFX.pk (american scientific).

roopi
08-16-2009, 02:21 PM
Originally posted by Red@8
Does anyone trade on the US pink sheets? I have never traded on there before. Anything to be aware of or look out for? I am thinking of getting into ASFX.pk (american scientific).

:thumbsdow Be careful with pink sheets. Most of the time they are scams.

cosmok
08-17-2009, 08:12 AM
Great morning so far :thumbsup:

Dinan
08-17-2009, 08:14 AM
Originally posted by cosmok
Great morning so far :thumbsup:

still holding HOD???

Nova316
08-17-2009, 08:14 AM
Im really enjoying it sitting at 75% cash haha, just had to be patient and wait for a pull back, hope this can push the tsx under 10k :D then I can reposition

cosmok
08-17-2009, 08:15 AM
Originally posted by Dinan


still holding HOD???
Yep and HGD

Red@8
08-17-2009, 08:17 AM
Originally posted by cosmok

Yep and HGD


Nice! I got stopped out of both on Friday.

cosmok
08-17-2009, 08:18 AM
^^My orders were 5¢ off so I got lucky

Dinan
08-17-2009, 08:19 AM
Originally posted by cosmok

Yep and HGD

wow!! :thumbsup:

u planning to get out today??

guessboi
08-17-2009, 08:22 AM
i have tons of cash on the sidelines once again. lol at HNU. :nut:

Dinan
08-17-2009, 08:23 AM
^^ what you planning on buying??



Originally posted by cosmok
^^My orders were 5¢ off so I got lucky

yeah and the negative Asian data helped too overnight :D


there are few storms forming, they said that "BILL" will be strong, lets hope, for us HNU holders...

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 08:23 AM
finally, beyond back online

well last week was a pretty good week imo now that we finally got the drop we wanted. lets look at how far he/she can go. why did I just say that? hmm

anyways as I mention on friday, after the initial down leg started, I fully expected this week it will fall pretty hard and so far every sector has been fairing nicely, especially the DOW.

looking at the dollar chart first. a week ago after the dollar completed a sub wave 1 top, I expected an ABC correction and we got it, then I expected the dollar once it bottomed to start pushing up aggressively, and so far so good. it took out the triple top pretty easily which is a indication this move up is impulsive and not corrective.

Now if you look at the first wave 1 length measured in purple it is about 2 prs on the chart. I fully expect the dollar to advance no less than this which puts the dollar right back above 80. What does this mean? its got more to go higher because EW theory states that wave 3 should not be less than wave 1. so the move here should be a pretty good one.

I dont expect any big pull backs, but notice there is a gap circled in red. There is a good chance some time in the future price could come down to fill such gap, so this could very well be a target bottom in the not so distant future unless the dollar is to turn around now and this will be a perfect buy entry point.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar081709.jpg

looking at oil, Im glad most of you stuck it out last week, but now that we are all in the green, oil will continue to move lower. the inital target of 67.6 has been broken and we should move to the next support of 64 soon. the previous 50% fibo at around 66 is holding price up, and if oil is to rally I think it should not break abovce 67.6 because this is a former up trendline now turned into a resistance.

See why I said we should hold onto hod until oil hits about 64, then we sell half? because if this is the big one we are witing for, then selling out at 67.5 is too soon to take profit. The chart at any day now will roll over to next month, why we are already trading next's month contract I guess we just have to wait until this happens on the chart to see what technical implication it has. for right now all sectors are bearish. Period

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil081709.jpg

Gold ever since it touched 971, I have been expecting it nothing but decline. and it was only matter of time until it breaks a short term up trendline which was at around 942 last week, and so it broke thru that and sharply headed lower. Now as this chart shows, its hovering at the final up trendline, while it appears broken to the down side. price may want to rally here, but again its only a matter of time until it punches thru this offically and next target would be sharply lower to 900-910.
silver was the only one that kind of surprised me a bit as it produced a higher high, but as I said last week as well I was expecting this to be a divergence and so shorting it above 15 was gift from god, and yes I shorted it as well and am happily wagging my tail as we look for a profit zone. a good target for longer term hold could be in the 11.50s as a measured move from 16 to 12.50 is about 3.50, so take that off from the 15.13 top we had last week and you get about 11.63, which is again what I said about the dollar, silver is in a sub wave 3 decline which should equal if not exceed the last drop from 16 to 12.50. anyways just like oil, if gold rallies here it should look at 943-945 as a massive resistance. once again

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold081709.jpg

Rat Fink
08-17-2009, 08:25 AM
.

cosmok
08-17-2009, 08:34 AM
It always feels good to take some profit off the table, I may clear out one of my HOD positions if we can get under $65 oil. Great calls again SR :drool:, have to take you out for a great steak and drinks when I'm back in town

997TT
08-17-2009, 08:35 AM
SR is pure money.

HZD to the moon ... haha

So oilngold says to there will be support at $13.90. Are you still holding till $12 give or take before selling half your position?

HNU :thumbsdow

but i can live with it as HZD is up 10% today.

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 08:39 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
SR is pure money.

HZD to the moon ... haha

So oilngold says to there will be support at $13.90. Are you still holding till $12 give or take before selling half your position?

HNU :thumbsdow

but i can live with it as HZD is up 10% today.

I do not rule out a pull back for gold/silver or even oil because technically on lower level chart namely the 1 hour, they are quite heavily oversold. But, I view even if they do rally it will be weak and it wont be long until the run resumes.

so its up to you give you want to take some profit off the table.

exactly how far will this drop goes? and is there one more thurst for the equities market comes sept? that will be difficult to say, but I am only going to stick with the dollar index as a gauge that we should at least see 80+ before a larger correction could be in order. Dont underestimate how sharp the market can fall when it does fall.

and for NG ever since it touched 4.16, I never had any interest in it as chart wise it continues to be bearish, and now that it broke another up trendline, I expect NG to make a new low first before any bigger jump may occur. Now get this, on NG chart, it has finally rolled over to next's months contract so you will see it suddenly jump higher, but I think this is a false hope, ,it made it worse because now looking at the NG chart, it appears it just wants to retest the broken up trend line, then its all nothing but down from here. thinking 3-3.15 as the most likely big swing pt area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgastodayt.jpg

Red@8
08-17-2009, 08:41 AM
Let me make sure I have this straight. So when the oil contract rolls over, we should see a higher oil price and HOD should come down in price before a drop in oil resumes (if all goes accoring to plan) - correct?

Vanish3d
08-17-2009, 08:46 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
SR is pure money.



agreed! we pretty much should just give him the money and he can play with it and keep a %.

Still holding HOD and resisting getting into HNU till $3 NG..or $2...

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 08:47 AM
Originally posted by Red@8
Let me make sure I have this straight. So when the oil contract rolls over, we should see a higher oil price and HOD should come down in price before a drop in oil resumes (if all goes accoring to plan) - correct?

not sure if I get your question

but lets say hod is 10 dollar and oil price is at 70

when oil drop to 63 -10%
hod gains 20% which is at 12.00

but when we roll over completely, whichis a 2 dollar gap for next month

what it means is instead of hod at 12.00 traind at 63 oil

we now still have hod at 12.00 trading at 65 oil.

so if oil drops 2 more dollars back to 63, hod continues to go higher

997TT
08-17-2009, 08:52 AM
SR are you planning on going to that lunch?

cant remember the date or who posted it .... I don't think anybody replied whether they were going or not.

HZD 19.25 x 19.31.

sold hod/hgd too soon ... not doing the same with hzd. Time to get greedy.

Dinan
08-17-2009, 09:01 AM
^^^^ hahhaa :D


yeah SR, is bang on!!!!:thumbsup:


i was so tempted to buy HZD too the other day in the low 17's... ahhhhh :(


so SR, you think will see a bounce to 3.70 or so NG before we drop down again?

Red@8
08-17-2009, 09:09 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex


not sure if I get your question

but lets say hod is 10 dollar and oil price is at 70

when oil drop to 63 -10%
hod gains 20% which is at 12.00

but when we roll over completely, whichis a 2 dollar gap for next month

what it means is instead of hod at 12.00 traind at 63 oil

we now still have hod at 12.00 trading at 65 oil.

so if oil drops 2 more dollars back to 63, hod continues to go higher


Thanks SR that clears it up for me.

Just going to wait for a good re-entry point now in HOD and HGD.

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 09:11 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
SR are you planning on going to that lunch?

cant remember the date or who posted it .... I don't think anybody replied whether they were going or not.

HZD 19.25 x 19.31.

sold hod/hgd too soon ... not doing the same with hzd. Time to get greedy.

yeah whats up with the lunch thing? whos going? when is it again?

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 09:16 AM
Originally posted by Red@8



Thanks SR that clears it up for me.

Just going to wait for a good re-entry point now in HOD and HGD.

this is why roll over hurts hou on the longer term as your loosing 2 bucks every month.

but hod on the other hand will greatly benefit as we gain 2 dollar higher to drop.

davidI
08-17-2009, 09:38 AM
Damn, wish I held on to HOD over the weekend. Then again, I had one hell of a Friday night as I spent 1/2 my gains at the French Maid that night :poosie:

As far as the lunch goes, I was suggesting August 27th - 11:45 to 1ish at SOHO (801 6th Street SW).

So far only Skandalouz_08 has said he's probably in. It would be nice to get 4 or 5 of us if we're going to do it.

KRZY403
08-17-2009, 09:43 AM
ya really should have held on to hod over the weekend too..

Dinan
08-17-2009, 09:50 AM
damn, there is no stopping NG :nut: :facepalm:

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 09:51 AM
^ yeah thanks to the roll over NG just got a lot more room to the down side once the front contract expires

skandalouz_08
08-17-2009, 09:53 AM
Just sold HNU at a loss, tired of holding the stupid thing. Back into HOD if I get the chance. Luckily I'm still holding HGD to offset the HNU loss.

Dinan
08-17-2009, 10:03 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
^ yeah thanks to the roll over NG just got a lot more room to the down side once the front contract expires

so october is the front contract now?


do you think will get some kinda rally? how high can it go?

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 10:23 AM
Originally posted by Dinan


so october is the front contract now?


do you think will get some kinda rally? how high can it go?


sorry have to revised a bit here I may have jumped the gun on my count. What I think we are seeing now is that I should be at the early stages of a final wave iii of V down to new lows.

There was a bit of a triangle pattern that broken down some time ago which indicates a wave IV correction. then as NG rally off 3.22 it was merely a wave i of V, see the recently up leg at 4.04 and 4.16 as an ABC correction?

when you see this type of rise, it is generally corrective.

so now that as ofr friday this chart at 3.70, where do you think it will go? nothing but down, there will be a wave iv of V correction once this wave iii completes. But what scares me is that, wave iii are generally cannot be shorter than wave i, and if wave i gave us 4.57 to 3.22, then wave iii will at least give us about 2.81

other way we are headed sharply lower from here. any rally is going to be a fake bounce.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgastoday-1.jpg

civic_rida
08-17-2009, 10:24 AM
those who work in oil and gas are any companies still making money with natural gas at these lows?
Any cuts in production?

Z_Fan
08-17-2009, 10:25 AM
My gut was right last Friday. Glad I sold some HNU, I bailed on the rest this morning. Fuck that shit. Don't have the balls to hop on to HND though. :poosie:

With my luck, that'd send HNU back up and make me a 4x losing ETF. :poosie:

davidI
08-17-2009, 10:35 AM
Originally posted by civic_rida
those who work in oil and gas are any companies still making money with natural gas at these lows?
Any cuts in production?

Cash flow is a huge concern for everyone at the moment. That's one of the major reasons companies aren't spending is that they're just hoarding the money they can to get through this period until gas prices come back up a bit. The price at AECO is still under $2.50.

Some companies are shutting in production, but there are a lot of factors that influence that decision. A lot of the time you need to produce to hold land...depends on the terms of the leases. Also, the drilling & equipping costs are sunk costs so it's not really "costing" anything to produce....it's just looking at whether the contango make it worthwhile to shut in for a while.

I think most companies are happy to be salvaging any cash they can right now!

Bisklimpkit
08-17-2009, 10:35 AM
I'm holding 1000 HNU purchased at 4.26, so I'm just looking to get it back to break-even. I'm hoping I can hold out that long, though. :nut:

Glad I made good coin on HOD today. Should offset well if I take a loss on the natural gas. :thumbsup:

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 10:37 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex



sorry have to revised a bit here I may have jumped the gun on my count. What I think we are seeing now is that I should be at the early stages of a final wave iii of V down to new lows.

There was a bit of a triangle pattern that broken down some time ago which indicates a wave IV correction. then as NG rally off 3.22 it was merely a wave i of V, see the recently up leg at 4.04 and 4.16 as an ABC correction?

when you see this type of rise, it is generally corrective.

so now that as ofr friday this chart at 3.70, where do you think it will go? nothing but down, there will be a wave iv of V correction once this wave iii completes. But what scares me is that, wave iii are generally cannot be shorter than wave i, and if wave i gave us 4.57 to 3.22, then wave iii will at least give us about 2.81

other way we are headed sharply lower from here. any rally is going to be a fake bounce.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgastoday-1.jpg

oh and did I mention the measure move on a higher level chart suggest 1.9-2.0 dollar for NG to bottom out?

997TT
08-17-2009, 10:50 AM
Mfkr ... i'm already down $4k on HNU.

SR you paint a pretty nasty picture .... gut check time as to whether i want to stomach a potential $8-$10k loss by holding.

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

guessboi
08-17-2009, 10:54 AM
I still have a small position in HNU so I am going to ride it out. only lost 900ish at this moment. should have sold this for a smaller loss earlier. :facepalm:

Dinan
08-17-2009, 11:07 AM
Damn, only a hurricane can save us now :(

Super_Geo
08-17-2009, 11:20 AM
How is NG getting sold off so badly? 8 consecutive days of losses? I can't find another spot in the NG charts where the price drops for 8+ consecutive days... there must be a bounce of some sort coming up, even if it's just a dead cat bounce.

I got 1,000 shares of HNU at $3.35... going to watch this one closely, hopefully flip it for a quick couple hundred bucks. I have to say though, SR's charts scares the living shit out of me! I've set a tight stop in case it keeps bleeding down...

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 11:29 AM
well if I had a choice I rather the world has recovered from the recession and on its way to new highs.

unforunately that would mean I have to forget everything I ever learn analyzing the market. so I dont know which is better.

But so far technically, the market is some what moving to our expecation doesnt it?



However to make it simple to understand. the recent rally in the dollar is only in a sub wave III of 1 up move. Meaning when the dollar begins a sub wave 1 of 3 up move that will be the longest and most painful to bare for all sectors.

so what does it mean? while I expect the dollar this week to advance further, once it finds a top, we should be met with a larger correction namely a wave 2 correction of the entre run up from the bottom of the dollar a week ago.

And it would be during this correction that I view the market namely DOW may regain its momentum and quite possibly make a move higher than 9422. it would be ideal that it puts in a divergence here for a final top.

Now depending on how much oil and gold and or NG will drop at its current pace. we should see a pretty strong rally but the rally should not take out the highs we established a week ago.

My gut feel is we could see some further nasty drop this week which would be in perfect harmony when the market makes a higher move and the rest of the sectors simply a retracement of the recent decline.

Remember in 2008 gold dipped hard in July, only the equities followed in september? I think if we are to see some substantial decline coming this winter, gold will lead us down first. so I anticipate gold to trip to low 900s and as the market rallies after this week, gold will simply just race itself back to 940-960 simply to retest the broken up trendline as I posted this morning.

I dont know where NG price will land, but I think new lows are coming. and it too will swing pretty hard once it hits a certain low. Therefore if NG was to suddenly swing 20-30 cent higher this week I think I will open a small short position.

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 11:42 AM
here look at the US dollar chart, we are simply in a small wave 3 heading higher than the small wave 1 in blue. Once this entire up leg completes it will be a larger (wave I) and thre will be a wave (II) correction that should give the market a precieved strong rally, but the worse night mare will be when we begin wave (III) that would be the strongest of them all.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollartoday-3.jpg

SilverRex
08-17-2009, 12:05 PM
now the above chart is what I believe is going to happen, but I am no trading god and until the market proves me wrong, what I say by this is there can still be an alternate count, if dollar some hows come crashing down respringing the rally back to life in all sectors, then we have to look at two other possible scenarios, one is that the ABC correction was not finished, and the recent low for the dollar at 78.24 was merely an A, and price will want to come down and make a bit of a lower low to complete the correction, then finally embark on the real sub wave iii rally. This of course will just give us a fantastic opporunity to short everything once again.

but, the other path which I do not like to see but yet can always happen is if the dollar takes out 78.12, which will invalidate our entire count and that would mean the recent rise is only an ABC correction and the dollar hasnt quite bottomed yet. if this ever ahppens we will analyze it when it does, until then. I am sticking with the initial count that we are and should be headed further up from here.

Dinan
08-17-2009, 12:08 PM
so are you going to get into HOU and HGU for the bounce up or just going to wait for a better shorting opportunity ?


so 69-70 oil is good short?

960 gold is good short?

997TT
08-17-2009, 01:31 PM
HNU has fought gallantly back to $3.42.

Horay you pos stock.

Now, stop tanking 5% each day.

Dinan
08-17-2009, 01:35 PM
Originally posted by 997TT
HNU has fought gallantly back to $3.42.

Horay you pos stock.

Now, stop tanking 5% each day.


hahahah, did you buy any more?

guessboi
08-17-2009, 01:39 PM
I regret not taking a position in HND 2 weeks ago. :facepalm:

997TT
08-17-2009, 01:41 PM
Originally posted by Dinan



hahahah, did you buy any more?

No, while i am looking for an exit strategy and averaging down is an option, HNU has not shown that "averaging down" is effective as most of you beyonders have averaged down ...and ended up downright selling.

Its not like CNQ, TCK or some other stock that if you had to average down it has proven time and time again that it can support certain prices.

HNU is just straight south. Serves me right for buying a commodity that i was super bearish on ... just b/c i thought i could play it for a pop.

Hahaha ... lesson learnt the hard way.
Thank you investing gods.

Dinan
08-17-2009, 01:50 PM
oh man, am i the only one still holding in the upper 5's :(

997TT
08-17-2009, 01:58 PM
i think you, z_fan and me are the only ones left brotha.

haha....we're doomed.

Dinan
08-17-2009, 02:02 PM
Originally posted by 997TT
i think you, z_fan and me are the only ones left brotha.

haha....we're doomed.

hahah, well at least you don't have in the upper 5$ HNU ..... :( damn who knows when we see the 5's again!!!


was tempted to buy more today and try and get out, but i'll wait and see... this averaging down hasn't been working with HNU :facepalm:

doudou
08-17-2009, 02:31 PM
Hi SilverRex,

I sold HOD at $12.02. When do you think I should buy again?

Bisklimpkit
08-17-2009, 02:51 PM
Has anyone ever dabbled in HDU or HDD? I'm trying to figure out when a good time might be to get into HDU if the USD is supposed to be getting stronger.

Z_Fan
08-17-2009, 04:03 PM
I am completely out of HNU now 997TT.

Last time I was down, I averaged down, bought more in the low 4's and it popped to $5.40...but I exited at $5.17 or something around there...

Then made the mistake of buying back. Averaged down once. Then bailed. Fuck HNU.

Overall I think I am close to break-even on HNU. Probably I am down a few hundred bucks. Haven't figured it out. Don't care. Fuck HNU.

Dinan
08-17-2009, 05:19 PM
looks like i'm the only dumb ass holding... :banghead:

tylere
08-17-2009, 06:10 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
looks like i'm the only dumb ass holding... :banghead:

Sadly I'm still holding the ball on this stupid thing.... My average is 4.94 so hoping for a little rebound so I can take a smaller loss :banghead: :banghead:

Dinan
08-17-2009, 08:46 PM
Damn who know's when will see hnu in the upper 5's, even in the 5's for that matter!

DRKM
08-18-2009, 01:19 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
looks like i'm the only dumb ass holding... :banghead:

I am still holding as well. Read about the widow makers spread that happens in October.

Happens every year.

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 06:28 AM
ok so after a day of decline, price seems to be holding and made a bit of a bounce. looking at the dollar index, clearly there is a small down trend channel forming, if broken to the upside (above red line) I believe price should resume upwards making a new high. notice Stoch is over sold and should turn up soon.

given if the main trend is up, price once over sold will quickly rebound and head the other way.

the only alt count that this may produce at this moment is that it can break upwards, but then come down for a bit of a lower low to form an ABC correction with divergence. so keep this in mind

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar081909.jpg

looking at oil, after oil at 66 (50% fibo) held the fort, it rally somewhat back to the 76.6, and notice it so far is stop dead at its tracks, I believe this former support trend line will not be a resistance similar to when oil was stopped at 72 the upper blue trend line. This can also be marked as completed an ABC correction and a break below 66.8 would confirm this move. Stoch is also over bought which is what we need to see to exhust this rally. watch for stoch to come out of overbought under (80) to confirm trend has changed.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil081809.jpg

now gold, as you can see from the daily chart, do we have a break down? it may take another day to confirm but mean while 1 hour chart shows the last up trend line broken now has resistance between 943-947 so even if gold was to suddenly rally I Expect no higher than the above range. look for gold to also resume dropping as it is over bought as well.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold081809.jpg

Dinan
08-18-2009, 06:39 AM
SR, when you getting back into HOD ?

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 06:41 AM
^

we'll see what oil is at when market opens, unfortunately oil is already dipping I hope it will get back above 67 so I can add to my position

997TT
08-18-2009, 07:37 AM
oil and gold on a tear to open....almost at $67 SR

everythign is up or recovering except that fkn pos stock HNU.
:banghead:

Dinan
08-18-2009, 07:37 AM
lets hope it does, need to make some $$ for the loss i'm having here with HNU :facepalm:

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 07:40 AM
let see if I was right about the resumption of trend. my order at 12.33 filled to the dot.

if price does punch upward I may open another position at the 200 EMA at around 69 front month oil which is probablly about 71 oil for hod

moment of truth here if the rally has some legs for the entire day to give it a bit of a higher high and gold possibly ralling off the trend line on the daily chart I posted.

or as I've allowed for a possible bit longer correction on the dollar index. But I do hope this is it.

997TT
08-18-2009, 07:57 AM
flipped tck.b for a good gain today ... bought yesterday at 27.54 and just sold at 28.44.

In hod at $12.36.

Super_Geo
08-18-2009, 07:58 AM
HNU is already on the Oct contract, right?

Same with HOU/HOD?

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 07:58 AM
with all data released this morning all in red, I really would love to see just how strong this rally is

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/adata.jpg

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 08:03 AM
Originally posted by Super_Geo
HNU is already on the Oct contract, right?

Same with HOU/HOD?

yup which is deadly because that means when the front month expires, NG has plenty of room to fall

eljefe
08-18-2009, 08:06 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex


yup which is deadly because that means when the front month expires, NG has plenty of room to fall

When does the front month expire?

Dinan
08-18-2009, 08:09 AM
SR, when is a good time to get into HOD?

997TT
08-18-2009, 08:11 AM
of course oil shoots up the minute my order is filled.... mf

eljefe
08-18-2009, 08:13 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
let see if I was right about the resumption of trend. my order at 12.33 filled to the dot.




Ahh remember back in the glory day- back in Max's death quarter we were in the mid 40's HOD

Dinan
08-18-2009, 08:16 AM
Originally posted by eljefe



Ahh remember back in the glory day- back in Max's death quarter we were in the mid 40's HOD

:dunno:

Hoagie
08-18-2009, 08:17 AM
what ETF follows the us dollar?

broken_legs
08-18-2009, 08:20 AM
Originally posted by Hoagie
what ETF follows the us dollar?

HDD

HDU

broken_legs
08-18-2009, 08:23 AM
I would think it's prudent to wait for Oil to break the trendline to go short.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/oil_081209.jpg


http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/oil_gas_081709.jpg

Rat Fink
08-18-2009, 08:26 AM
.

Dinan
08-18-2009, 08:26 AM
^^^what are your thoughts on NG ?

Rat Fink
08-18-2009, 08:31 AM
.

Vanish3d
08-18-2009, 08:36 AM
damn it, i got stopped on HOD at 12.19. I wish I was at my comp at open cuz I woulda sold at 12.5x

Red@8
08-18-2009, 08:40 AM
In HOD now.

997TT youre in as well right?

You know I think the last time we were both in stock together it was HNU. Needless to say lets hope this one turns out better. :D

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 08:46 AM
look at this boys

when GS made a new high not long ago, the entire stock market rallied to new heights.

but now look at it doesnt that look it broke the neck line of a H&S pattern? and price today simply retesting that neckline.

my view is that it will at least head to the next most likely support which was a prior resistance. which would in turn fulfill the projected H&S target

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gs.jpg

superboyazn
08-18-2009, 08:50 AM
in HOD too for 12.13

fall oil fall!

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 09:02 AM
gold especially silver is looking extremely weak

civic_rida
08-18-2009, 09:06 AM
Pretty sure nat. gas is trading sept. contract.

superboyazn
08-18-2009, 09:07 AM
sorry what was the etf's for silver again?

Is it time to buy some HGD?

SilverRex
08-18-2009, 09:09 AM
look at silver, it needs to get back above 14 for any hopes for a further rally but yet price is pushed right back down looking like new lows are coming. Stoch is crossed over and ready to head down for some more. the up trend line is providing resistance

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silvertoday-1.jpg

Dinan
08-18-2009, 09:16 AM
Originally posted by superboyazn
sorry what was the etf's for silver again?

Is it time to buy some HGD?

HZD to short silver.... it was a great entry few days ago in the low 17's ...


and HNU is tracking october contract now...

997TT
08-18-2009, 09:37 AM
doubled up my hod position at $12.05.

lol.

Red@8, i really hope your scenario about being in on the same stock works out better this time.

Dinan
08-18-2009, 09:40 AM
tempted to buy some hod :nut:

Vanish3d
08-18-2009, 09:41 AM
go oil go!
looking for 69 oil to get back into HOD

997TT
08-18-2009, 09:45 AM
tank oil tank!!!

skandalouz_08
08-18-2009, 09:49 AM
Just bought into HOD again at $12.05 too, my $12.55 position from yesterday though was a horrible choice.

RX_EVOLV
08-18-2009, 10:00 AM
wow.. so everyone is back on the HOD wagon.. hmm.. shouldl... i .. or should I wait a day.... hmmm

guessboi
08-18-2009, 10:00 AM
< 12 HOD now. I learned to be patient and not to rebuy higher than what I sold last time. :D

superboyazn
08-18-2009, 10:07 AM
wow.. 11.83