Official Short-term Investments Thread

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
Holy fuck me sideways... $74 Oct oil. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[djayz]

damn jumped on the HOD wagon this time to try out oil for the very first time since January(got burned bad with the hou split ordeal) and now i know why i held out of oil all this time.

Good on those who set stops on this one, I thought this would be an easy couple hundred on open but wow did it go completely opposite!

Anyone buying at this level or holding out to see where it goes?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by djayz
damn jumped on the HOD wagon this time to try out oil for the very first time since January(got burned bad with the hou split ordeal) and now i know why i held out of oil all this time.

Good on those who set stops on this one, I thought this would be an easy couple hundred on open but wow did it go completely opposite!

Anyone buying at this level or holding out to see where it goes?

hey, can you tell me what happened with the HOU split ? i think HNU might have the same faith, kinda wanna be ready for it lol.... thanks

what price did you get in at??


i'm in at 10.91.....i would hold it for a day or two, i think will see some profit taking for sure, will bring oil back down...:facepalm:

[superboyazn]

we gotta hold on tight boys..

[djayz]

HOU was split 5-1 if I remember correctly so for every 5 shares you got 1.

I was out of country at the time and my cost was 2.50 a share and when i checked when i was out of country it was 12 something, i didnt bother looking at number of shares or anything just sold all holdings at market and came home with the biggest smile on my face because I thought I had made 10 dollars a share which was close to 20k at the time haha. First thing I did when i got home was check the account and my jaw dropped.

It's possible for it to happen to HNU but I think we will see uplegs to HNU before a split happens.

As for HOD got in at 11.59 yesterday, went with 1k shares but thats like 1k loss already, might buy another chunk at 10.50ish by end of day today just checking a few things to see how oil will play out.

[bg_27]

I don't think things look good for HNU, it has an almost H&S (head isnt higher than shoulders) formation since May, and after falling through its "neckline" it couldnt break upwards through it again, and has fallen since with no signs of a support level. That coupled with the increasing volume is why I don't plan on touching HNU.

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/tt81/bg_8927/hnus-hs1.jpg

[guessboi]

^ any one in HND.

[max_boost]

^
haha yeah, you guys can always collectively buy the one that's going up. :devil:

I haven't made one trade in the last two weeks. Just sitting on my XIU and not doing anything. :angel:

[djayz]

Just took a second position of HOD at 10.70 hoping this one will cover the gains I was supposed to get from the 11.59 position opening yesterday.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by djayz
HOU was split 5-1 if I remember correctly so for every 5 shares you got 1.

I was out of country at the time and my cost was 2.50 a share and when i checked when i was out of country it was 12 something, i didnt bother looking at number of shares or anything just sold all holdings at market and came home with the biggest smile on my face because I thought I had made 10 dollars a share which was close to 20k at the time haha. First thing I did when i got home was check the account and my jaw dropped.

It's possible for it to happen to HNU but I think we will see uplegs to HNU before a split happens.

As for HOD got in at 11.59 yesterday, went with 1k shares but thats like 1k loss already, might buy another chunk at 10.50ish by end of day today just checking a few things to see how oil will play out.

that sucks man. hope you didn't lose too much... what price was oil at that time...?

[997TT]

Sorry Dinan .... my HNU price guess are about as worthless as the shares i own.

it couldn't even close at $3.30.

Now if in only stuck it out with HOU and not bought HOD :banghead:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
Sorry Dinan .... my HNU price guess are about as worthless as the shares i own.

it couldn't even close at $3.30.

Now if in only stuck it out with HOU and not bought HOD :banghead:


hahaha, at least wae saw a green finish guy! it's got to be a start... lets see what tomorrow holds.... i HATE thursdays!:banghead: lol

[guessboi]

^ I still have my mid 5 HNU that i didn't put a stop loss in. woohoo. green for HNU end of the day. what a start!:rofl:

[cosmok]

...

[Dinan]

^ what happened then? I take it oil dropped the fallowing day :)


Originally posted by guessboi
^ I still have my mid 5 HNU that i didn't put a stop loss in. woohoo. green for HNU end of the day. what a start!:rofl:


What you think, will see this in the 5's any time soon?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bg_27
I don't think things look good for HNU, it has an almost H&S (head isnt higher than shoulders) formation since May, and after falling through its "neckline" it couldnt break upwards through it again, and has fallen since with no signs of a support level. That coupled with the increasing volume is why I don't plan on touching HNU.

http://i600.photobucket.com/albums/tt81/bg_8927/hnus-hs1.jpg


You might consider not looking at the ETF - Especially the volume on the ETF - For your TA cues

It doesn't really tell you the truth about the real volume or the price on the NG contract.

I would suggest looking at the actual spot price and forward contracts:

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/gas_081809_2.jpg


Also this is a great little diddly on how the ETF works:
http://www.jovfunds.com/origo/betapro_updated/updated/HBP%20Investing%20in%20Commodity%20v1.pdf

[Dinan]

^^ when you think will see HNU in the 5's ?

[bg_27]

Just read that crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined causing Japanese stocks to rebound. It was the biggest drop in inventories is 15 months. Bloomberg

[DRKM]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^ when you think will see HNU in the 5's ?

I asked my buddy (a BP trader) and he say that October will be a big month for NG. Just look at the Futures curve on NG. December futures are at 5.6x. That will be at least 5.00 HNU...

Currently shorting gold.

[SilverRex]

Ok after being a way for a day, I'm very suprised at how the market reacted to the inventory news for oil. the biggest drop in 15 months, I guess this is pretty big and even technically it did alot of damage to us.

I must apologize to everyone who bought HOD on the basis of my analysis as I dropped the ball on this one. Not because oil rose, but as it rose pass 69, technically to me that was my initial alarm bell as I said a day ago that if oil passes 70, then something is not right and I Should have at least came out and said wait for oil to turn down. But instead even with my own warning I continue to believe oil would resume its drop.

The only thing I said was if oil passes 71.54, this area must hold, and it didnt, now that oil exploded upwards, technically it is quite damaging, it also broke pass the 73.35 which if I was just looking at oil by itself (not thinking about the other markets like the dow, dollar or gold) then breaking 73.35 actually now opens up 75-79.

Now if you did buy hod when I first advised to do so when oil was went from 71 to 65, then chances are either you have basically give back all of your gains. Or you would have been in good standing if you did the following two things that I always recommend. That is to sell half after the inital 6+ dollar drop. As well as moving your stop loss to break even. Chances are if price retraced all 6 dollars back the other direction, then logic would tell us something is not right and we should enter a wait and see approach.

Now oil after hitting slightly pass 74 is back down at 73.40s. is there any hope that oil can come back down. well typically after it broke abov e 73.35, this area would become a very good support to go long. But there is still something that I have to keep in mind, while technically oil looks completely turned around, other sectors like the dollar index, euro and even gold are very much still within its bearish ranges. And I wont be convinced that the this oil rally is real until I get confirmation that other sectors are also technically broken to the upside.

so my recommendation is. I would wait for confirmation from other sectors. with oil negative divergence occuring, I dont know if it can sustain this at 73+ oil.

the other thing is, even if oil does rise further, the upside range I think is limited to about 75-79. so I would either wait to short oil at a much higher prices. or wait for oil to break below 69. why 69? yes we all should learn, when oil first broken down producing what looked like a wave iii towards 65, it had formed a wave 1 low at about 69. so technically when oil was at 65 it was not suppose to re-enter above 69 and if it does, all bets are off and oil is in trouble. my mistake was I did not emphasis the importance of this and hence got everyone here over excited. so now I have to take a neutral approch and wait for other sectors to confirm before jumping the gun. even though if oil was a fake rally this would serious make 73 oil a gift from god for hod. I guess you can try this, for those that never took a position, you could attampt to short oil this morning with a tight stop above yesterday's high. seriously this is a great risk to reward scenario if the dollar did indeed bottomed and I will explain as I will post every sectors to give everyone what the hack is going on.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil082009.jpg

ok lets look at the dollar as I Feel this is where all sectors should follow, if the dollar is not on our side, it matters not what we do with the other market as going against this pair is a bad idea.

now looking at the dollar ever since it completed wave 1 back on the 10th of aug, and retraced beautifully on the 13th, I expected it to start a 5 wave impulse to the upside, unforunately, the wave sub wave II gave us a further pull back then anticipated and now we must watch for technical clues if the dollar is still in an uptrend, a longer consolidation or it hasnt bottomed. How can we tell? first oil must not break 78.12m if it does, that means oil has not bottomed and a retest of the low in the 77s would be in play. at the same time we need the dollar to do two things. stoch must break above the down trend line in red as well as in price. until I see the dollar do either the above I have to take a neutral approch.
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar082009.jpg

look at the loonie, I think the loonie is the only pair that if you just take it by itself, it is completely still playing out to the upside (for the chart that is which means weak loonie). it is very much in an obvious up trend channel, ever since completing wave I and corrected a wave II, the sub wave I of III has started beautifully as well as retraced perfectly, if this chart is telling me what I should be seeing with the other market a week ago, the the lonnie should begin a sharp rise from here, only breaking below 908 will it invalidate the entire setup. so the loonie unless it takes out the low mention above, should begin a very aggressive assult to new highs.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/loonie082009.jpg

now looking at euro it too had its scary moment breaking the down trend line, but stoch is coming out of overbought and since similar to the dollar index, it did not break above 4330 which is viewed to be the critical resistance. then I would not go long just of yet. basically euro and the dollar is in a similar pattern, it will need confirmation on both, but since I did believe the dollar has bottomed, if that is the case, then euro should not advance further, any upside this morning will be a perfect shorting opportunity unless it can break above 4330. else look for euro to begin dropping as well.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro082009.jpg

with the oil advacing like this you would think gold would rocket to the moon, in fact gold is very much still bearish, it cannot over come the 943-947 area, this area will continue to provide resistance meaning unless it can break above the red down trend line, I view gold is still on a downward path stoch is over bought and is beginning to drop as well. of course if the dollar index changed course to broke a key support. then that would inturn change the outlook on every sector. but since it hasnt, I will think down before up for gold

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold082009.jpg

now looking at the DOW while it made a good rally off the 9100s you can tell it is sitting right at the previous up trend line which should be a resistance now. if the DOW is to see new lows, it needs to turn around now, closing above this will not be a good idea. I would wait for it to close below 9221 to confirm dow is still in a down trend. otherwise wait and see what it does.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow082009.jpg

now im going to post the GS chart here, I posted the same chart a few days ago and it looks bearish to me, while someone else suggested that it did the same thing weeks ago when it had a fake break down and moved up instead, while this scenario is possible so far GS is still very much unable to break above its broken neckline. the longer this holds up, the more this chart will eventually become a reality. so unless it can close above 161. I feel this chart is warning us what the market is about to do and that is to turn around and head down further. we will see how this and other sectors like the dollar and oil will do. I think after today and tomorrow we will know what the market is going to be like next week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gs082009.jpg

[davidI]

Originally posted by DRKM


I asked my buddy (a BP trader) and he say that October will be a big month for NG. Just look at the Futures curve on NG. December futures are at 5.6x. That will be at least 5.00 HNU...



Yea, but your HNU will roll over into those contracts and your $3.XX HNU will suddenly be equivalent to a $5.6X NG price. Rolling over into contracts does not mean you'll get a jump on HNU, just a different commodity reference price.

In a contango curve environment, it's better to be short.

[997TT]

welcome back SR ... you missed an exciting day.

As a ST play, i'm going to buy oil and silver.

Probably a one-two day hold ... hope i dont fk the dog on this trade too.

[SilverRex]

oh the one thing I guess could surprise me is that while the chart service I use is now trading oct oil hence the 73+ oil, matter of the fact is the sept oil hasnt expired yet. meaning yesterday sept oil only got as high as 72.79, so

I would not go long unless sept oil can crank thru 73.35 for all I know perhaps this may be the exeption that oct oil chart is not telling us the entire story.

so as I have said eariler, unless dollar index breaks down below 78.12 or euro above 4330, it may be worth shorting HOD at these level with a tight stop as long as it does not break yesterday's low for hod or high. Especially sept oil above 73.35

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
welcome back SR ... you missed an exciting day.

As a ST play, i'm going to buy oil and silver.

Probably a one-two day hold ... hope i dont fk the dog on this trade too.

hmm dont buy silver unless it can break the obvious neck trend line coming down to 14.07, unless this level is taking out, it looks dangerous, sar is on top, stoch is overbought, the better play would be if you still have silver short, I would exit your position if it breaks above 14.07

yes looking at the dollar index, I need confirmation we are still headed up and have to worry a possible break down that will alter my EW count. but then again if I have to bet I would stick to my inital analysis that dollar has bottomed and unless technically it tells me other wise, I wont bet on the other side

for the record I shold half my silver short at 13.50 and re-shorted at 13.90 with tight stop above 14.07

[997TT]

Thanks for the info SR. 10 minutes to go ... hoping to exit TCK today in the 28.3+ range. We'll see how that goes

[SilverRex]

many weeks ago I think I saw a similar case where technically all sectors were headed one way, then euro broke down thru a very critical support.

at first this was an alarm bell, but at the same thing all other sector expecially the dollar did not break theirs. meaning, the euro could be a fake shake out, and so I took a bit of a chance and jumped going long on euro and sure enough, it rally 500 pts after wards. because the main trend was very much in tact and the resumption of the dollar decline eventually pushed euro sharly back up.

so

I wonder

if oil is in that boat? meaning I would take a chance to short oil (with tight stop of course)

because if the dollar is infact hasnt turned on us, this could you imagine the coming drop in oil prices? I could be double wacking myself here lol as ive already made a bad call on oil this week. well to defend myself Id say I made a bad warning, as I Should have heed my own advice that above 69 oil = trouble.

well hopefully I can redeem myself here.

[Super_Geo]

New Jobless Claims:

Prior: 558k
Expected: 545-559k
Actual: 576k

This should give oil some downward pressure... the US isn't out of the woods yet. Even though corporate spending is up, people are getting laid off in larger numbers. This will push retail spending down and hurt overall sentiment.

[SilverRex]

^ yup that is music to my ears, if dow can close below 9221 today I would short in full force

[Blacura]

Originally posted by 997TT
Thanks for the info SR. 10 minutes to go ... hoping to exit TCK today in the 28.3+ range. We'll see how that goes

I live in a town built around a TCK plant, so the stock price has been well talked about. Wish I would have got on that boat when it was around $4.

[997TT]

out of HOD for a 0.5/share loss.... dumb ass move on my part

in HOU at 9.48 and TCK currently at 28.23.

Keep running TCK ... :thumbsup:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Super_Geo
New Jobless Claims:

Prior: 558k
Expected: 545-559k
Actual: 576k

This should give oil some downward pressure... the US isn't out of the woods yet. Even though corporate spending is up, people are getting laid off in larger numbers. This will push retail spending down and hurt overall sentiment.

seems like they don't care .....


still holding HOD under 11$.....




so SR, i'm holding US$ would you recommend holding them or the CND is moving higher?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan


seems like they don't care .....


still holding HOD under 11$.....




so SR, i'm holding US$ would you recommend holding them or the CND is moving higher?

what do youmean cnd moving higher?

right now unless the dollar index turns technically bearish, I expect the dollar will rise so yes hold your US dollar, cnd will drop if things play out like they should

[Dinan]

^^ from your post this mornting...

"look at the loonie, I think the loonie is the only pair that if you just take it by itself, it is completely still playing out to the upside. it is very much in an obvious up trend channel, ever since completing wave I and corrected a wave II, the sub wave I of III has started beautifully as well as retraced perfectly, if this chart is telling me what I should be seeing with the other market a week ago, the the lonnie should begin a sharp rise from here, only breaking below 908 will it invalidate the entire setup. so the loonie unless it takes out the low mention above, should begin a very aggressive assult to new highs."


:dunno:

[Dinan]

25min to go, HNU will move, which way? we shall see...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^ from your post this mornting...

"look at the loonie, I think the loonie is the only pair that if you just take it by itself, it is completely still playing out to the upside. it is very much in an obvious up trend channel, ever since completing wave I and corrected a wave II, the sub wave I of III has started beautifully as well as retraced perfectly, if this chart is telling me what I should be seeing with the other market a week ago, the the lonnie should begin a sharp rise from here, only breaking below 908 will it invalidate the entire setup. so the loonie unless it takes out the low mention above, should begin a very aggressive assult to new highs."


:dunno:

sorry I was refering to the chart my bad

[Dinan]

so the short term it looks like the loonie will move higher?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
so the short term it looks like the loonie will move higher?

well the chart shows the loonie will lose value against the dollar. so no I expect the loonie continue to drop

but if your looking at my chart it is in USD/CAD, so when the chart points upward it means strong dollar weak loonie

[997TT]

Here we go Dinan...just added 10k shares of HNU at $3.16 for a total of 15k HNU (original 5k bought at $4.15)

stop at $3.05 ... if inventory reports fk me over, i'm done with NG

gonna play with my TCK gains here ...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


well the chart shows the loonie will lose value against the dollar. so no I expect the loonie continue to drop

but if your looking at my chart it is in USD/CAD, so when the chart points upward it means strong dollar weak loonie


hahaha, i forgot it was US/CND ... for some reason i thought it was the CND index... lol i cant consecrate with NG :facepalm: lol

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Dinan
25min to go, HNU will move, which way? we shall see...

http://ugandaninsomniac.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/roulette.jpg

I'm betting it'll go into the black and not make a new yearly low

[Dinan]

^^^ hope soo!

[997TT]

Black ...black ... black....

[Dinan]

i'm nervous :nut:

[997TT]

Working Gas in Underground Storage, Lower 48 other formats: Summary TXT CSV
Region Stocks in billion cubic feet (Bcf) Historical Comparisons
08/14/09 08/07/09 Change Year Ago (08/14/08) 5-Year (2004-2008) Average
Stocks (Bcf) % Change Stocks (Bcf) % Change
East 1,681
1,635
46
1,530
9.9
1,519
10.7

West 449
444
5
362
24.0
374
20.1

Producing 1,074
1,073
1
750
43.2
799
34.4

Total 3,204
3,152
52
2,642
21.3
2,691
19.1



Notes and Definitions


Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,204 Bcf as of Friday, August 14, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 52 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 562 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 513 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,691 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 162 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 46 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 275 Bcf above the 5-year average of 799 Bcf after a net injection of 1 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 75 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 5 Bcf. At 3,204 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2004 through 2008.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
gas is above the 5-year historical range.

[997TT]

looks like red ... lol

hnu $3.11 and falling

[Dinan]

looks like RED:banghead:

[cosmok]

I had a tight stop that I bumped up when it jumped to 3.23 there, only lost $100 :rofl:

[Dinan]

isn't it decreasing week to week? wasn't last week 62 ?

[997TT]

cmon HNU stop me out .... get rid of this god awful stock from my portfolio.

lol

[Dinan]

Prior Actual
Weekly Change 63 bcf 52 bcf


shouldn't it be good??



where u set your stop 997TT ??

[Red@8]

SR you still holding your HOD?

[SilverRex]

^ yup if sept oil cracks thru 73.35 I may hedge my bet with hou instead as upside I only see 75-79 oil anyways

[997TT]

out of HNU now.

:thumbsup:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
out of HNU now.

:thumbsup:


:banghead: :facepalm:

[bg_27]

In my opinion about HNU, if you look at its chart, you are fighting the clear trend by betting its gonna go up.

HNU has been overall trending down since July 2008.

One of my trading strategies is always trade with the trend. There are big gains to be made if you successfully bet against the trend, but thats like gambling.

I think trying to time the bottom of HNU for a bounce is gonna cost you money, wait to get into HNU until it is starting to trend up.

[guessboi]

Don't rebuy HNU. The trend is down, and there is no support at the bottom.

[davidI]

^ you're totally right, but it's easier said than done!! HH NG below $3 is insane when you look at the economics of drilling and production....but supply / demand are so out of whack right now it's a reality.

If gas prices stay this low Alberta is in for some trouble!

[guessboi]

^ I wonder how low natural gas price will go. It is around 3 now. Too bad I missed the boat in HND.

[davidI]

AECO is at $2.41 right now!!!!

[Bisklimpkit]

^^^ no kidding AB would be in trouble. I've heard that of all of the $$ oil and gas brings into the province, about 70% of it is from NG. Let's hope for the sake of the province, and for most of our portfolios, that NG will have a decent increase in the coming months.

[Dinan]

well at least HOD is looking good, oil isn't moving up....


but HNU is killing me, damn i wish i never averaged down! now i'm in deeper ..... no more buy, i hope for a rally to start taking some out...

[Z_Fan]

I'm glad I pitched that HNU crap away a couple days ago.

Unfortunately I sold my HND after a small profit, thinking after 8 days of shit, HNU would bounce. But alas, I was wrong.

997TT - tell me how much you lost on HNU because I need to feel better about how much I lost on HNU. ;) :nut:

[doudou]

sr are you still holding hod

[997TT]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I'm glad I pitched that HNU crap away a couple days ago.

Unfortunately I sold my HND after a small profit, thinking after 8 days of shit, HNU would bounce. But alas, I was wrong.

997TT - tell me how much you lost on HNU because I need to feel better about how much I lost on HNU. ;) :nut:

do the math bro, i posted my shares purchased and at what prices....haha

funny thing is my portfolio is still going up. My last 2 TCK plays cancel out my HNU loss.

Have made really good cash on shorting Silver thanks to SR, throw in two HOD good days and i'm actually up through all of this.

Back in Tck at 28.27. Looking to sell at 28.6+

[troyl]

Short position on HNU increased by 22 million from July 31-Aug 15 :eek:

Could see some upward pressure when they cover. Who knows when they will be forced to cover though, they are having a hay day now.

[civicrider]

anyone else invest in AIG? Bought Late July at $13 and just sold for $35 today :thumbsup:

[cosmok]

Originally posted by civicrider
anyone else invest in AIG? Bought Late July at $13 and just sold for $35 today :thumbsup:
Wow nice one

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


do the math bro, i posted my shares purchased and at what prices....haha

funny thing is my portfolio is still going up. My last 2 TCK plays cancel out my HNU loss.

Have made really good cash on shorting Silver thanks to SR, throw in two HOD good days and i'm actually up through all of this.

Back in Tck at 28.27. Looking to sell at 28.6+

did you sell HZD?

[doudou]

SR
are you still holding hod
I bought at 11.5 yesterday , it is ETF, how long I should hold

And about U.S. dollars, it is still strong. I have some USD

what about the big picture, up or down

[cosmok]

Originally posted by doudou
SR
are you still holding hod
I bought at 11.5 yesterday , it is ETF, how long I should hold

And about U.S. dollars, it is still strong. I have some USD

what about the big picture, up or down


Please read the previous pages, the thread moves fast



Originally posted by SilverRex
^ yup if sept oil cracks thru 73.35 I may hedge my bet with hou instead as upside I only see 75-79 oil anyways

[SilverRex]

^ yup im going to hedge oil with hou if sept oil breaks 73.35, otherwise I still expect the dollar has bottomed unless those critical support's are broken to the down side as I have been saying all these time

[guessboi]

^ Any one going in at HOD? seems like oil can not break the resistance level around 73.35. I might do it with a tight stop.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by guessboi
^ Any one going in at HOD? seems like oil can not break the resistance level around 73.35. I might do it with a tight stop.
I picked some up yesterday at 10.6

[Dinan]

fuckkkk..... just drop to 2.50NG. sh*t and get it over with!


anyone buying HND???:nut:


everyone is saying 2.50 NG, shit, might as whell buy HND, at least i'll be green on ONE!

[pearl0168]

SR, do you mean you are hedge oil on HOU? As HOD is going up right now?

[bg_27]

I think he means he is gonna hedge is position with HOU because HOD might go down.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by civicrider
anyone else invest in AIG? Bought Late July at $13 and just sold for $35 today :thumbsup:

holding jan 2011 2.50 (pre reverse stock split) call options still...

i'm expecting them to be worth around 400% the value at the rate AIG is going. ;)

[SilverRex]

folks, while I still believe in the strength of the US dollar rally this fall, however I cannot rule out the possibility that the dollar may be entering a larger corrective sequence that no doubt would force further rally in oil and the euro, and yes even gold/silver may be incline to be pushed back up while in my books I think we may have seen a top for gold at 971 and silver at about 15+

look for clues that this may be the case. as I have said before. if the sept oil contract pushes price above 73.35, it may be time to hedge it if your still shorting oil.

I have sold a position of HOD, I had 3 before. and will look to to hedge my bets with HOU if it takes off above 73.35.

DOW refuses to sell off, it not only closed above the important support at 9221, it has also trying to close above the previous broken up trend. so unless price can take out 9221. I feel the sept rally may be here early.

To sum it up, if 73 oil was not the top, then it is going to find a top pretty soon, I give the top of the range between 75-79, since sept oil is going to expire soon, the 75-79 range would apply to oct.

what is causing all of this sudden change of view? well the USD/CAD just broken down a very important up trend channel and the what supposed to be the wave 3 up move has came down and broken below 908 which is critical support and now have invalidate the entire set up.

does it mean we will see new lows for the dollar? right now I dont think so, but the likely hood that we may see a more strecthed out bottoming process may be in play. So now we have to watch the 78.12 dollar index very closely, if this asumption is correction then the dollar should break 78.12 soon and head to retest the low at 77.50 it would be during this drop that oil, gold and dow will fly.

but that is not the end of the world. I Think this will be the last gasp the market is trying to reach before the final top is produced.

I think higher oil and dow is in order but I dont think gold/silver will see a higher top imo.

[cosmok]

Edit: NVM

[997TT]

I hope your right SR.

i'm holding Hou and TCK. lol

oh by the way ... a big F U to NG

[Super_Geo]

SR,

Where do you check the dollar index? So far I've just been looking at oil/NG on CME, and the USD on Google Finance... haha, there has to be a better source...

CME is only showing Oct oil right now... what do you think the critical point to watch on the Oct contract is to see if oil is going to make a run (vs the 73.35 on Sept oil)?

[Dinan]

did sept oi expire today??

[max_boost]

damn brothers, nat gas strikes again! :nut: :dunno:

[SilverRex]

I think sept oil has expired since cme no longer shows it either.

I guess all we have now is oct oil, so the same would apply but if you wanted to be safe, take a which ever breaks out first. above 74.3 or below 72.53

oil is really the funny one here since the dollar index hasnt dropped to 78.12 yet, and euro hasnt hit 4330 either. so until they do all we can do is wait and see

edit: yes I said it, give it a wait and see approach nothing wrong with being patient. the dollar index (can be viewed thru netdania.com) amid a bit of a delay but still useful, if the dollar is to test 78.12 support and or headed down it will not and shouldnt be able to break above 79, so we will have to give it some time to see what it wants to do as it can go either way right now

[Dinan]

i'll wait and hold HOD and see what tomorrow holds... i don't even want to look at NG any more.....

[doudou]

SR

Where do you check the us$ dollar index. thank you

[skandalouz_08]

I'm gonna hold off on HOD too, see what will happen tomorrow and whether I will need to sell for a loss or can actually come back and break even...

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Super_Geo

Like SR said netdania for analysis and I use goldseek (http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex1hour.php) and their one hour chart for real time quotes

[doudou]

SR

where i can check us$ index. thank you

[Dinan]

LOL......


netdania for US index, gold, oil, silver, whatever you like :)


or http://quotes.ino.com/ for more delayed quotes ...

[Dinan]

so wee need to stay below 74.40 oil right....

but on the daily the MACD has crossed above and the stoch is heading overbought tho...


damn a crazy tornado in toronto, why here lol, we could use one in the golf of mexico :devil: :D

[DRKM]

Net dania is in real time except for Oil and USD INDEX. Why dont you just go there and check it out?

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by max_boost
damn brothers, nat gas strikes again! :nut: :dunno:

I don't know WTF is wrong with me, but I'm looking at HNU and thinking now might be an OK time to buy.

But the the sane part kicks in and says fuck that. I never should have sold my HND. It's up $2/share from where I bought it and I bailed on it after a $0.50/share gain. STUPID. :banghead:

[max_boost]

I don't know why but I'm predicting -300pts on the TSX tomorrow. Everything pulls back. :eek:

[DRKM]

Gold just went up 15 dollars in less then 5 min...

WTF???

[Dinan]

^ aren't you in xiu? Or you looking for a entry :)

[DRKM]

God I hope that the housing report is shit.

[SilverRex]

so my late day warning that the dollar index should break 78.12 is so far holding true. as we continue to see higher oil, gold popped, loonie tanked (after it too violated its support)

while this does cause a short term bullish move on all sectors. I will hold on to the strong dollar unless the next support 77.44 breaks, until then I expect a much larger drawn out correction occuring.

but at this stage either or scenario can happen. its best to wait and see what happens today to get a better idea for the week and expecation of the next.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar082109.jpg

[Dinan]

Damn, should have gotten out yestetday! Damn hod :(

[997TT]

so much conflicting data on oil ...

most are in the camp that it will correct due to recession/slowdown in demand.

guess i should be looking for an exit on HOU.

found this on oilngold.

Trading Tactics

Buy Crude oil on signs of an uptrend.

The buying point is at 72.62; Pivot point is the take profit at 74.75; Fibonacci 38.2% is the stop loss at 70.75

The selling point is at 69.50; previous support is the take profit at 67.00; Fibonacci 23.6% is the stop loss at 72.18

Technical: Crude oil bounces on previous resistance and forms a new support level. A move back higher could set up a test of 74.75

Also this:

Hence, strong resistance is expected to be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally